ToU iSM aND CLiMaTE iN LiSBoN.
aN aSSESSMENT BaSED oN WEaTHE TYpES
aquel Mache e1
an ónio lopeS2
Ma Belén góMez-Ma ín3
helde aga4
abs ac – al hough clima e is pe cei ed as an essen ial pa o ou ism, in luencing
ou is ic egional and seasonal dis ibu ion pa e ns, ideal clima e condi ions o ou ism a e
o en assumed, a he han demons a ed. a e e iewing he dis inc ools ha ha e been
applied in o de o e alua e clima e po en ial o ou ism, as well as ou is s’ p e e ences,
Besanceno s’ wea he - ypes me hod was chosen. his model was adap ed and applied o
Lisbon, e alua ing he sui abili y o he summe season o ou ism ac i i ies. he esul ing
wea he ype pa e n was hen c ossed wi h he seasonal ou is demands ( isi a ion s a-
is ics), allowing o conclude ha e en when he wea he is ca ego ized as ex emely ho
( ype 7) o un a ou able o ou ism ( ype 8) i does no e lec in he oom occupa ion a es
o he ci y o Lisbon, ein o cing ecen ad ances in ou ism clima ology, ha de y expe
based h esholds o he mal p e e ences and com o . a e o mula ion o he wea he ype
model wi h ou indings can be a use ul ool o u u e assessmen s o ou is po en ial unde
p ojec ed clima e changes.
Keywo ds: ou ism and clima e, wea he - ypes, clima e change, Lisbon, Po ugal.
esumo – u iSMo e cliMa eM liSBoa. análiSe coM BaSe noS “ ipoS de eMp o”.
ainda que o clima seja is o como pa e essencial das ac i idades u ís icas, in luenciando
os pad ões de dis ibuição espácio- empo al dos luxos de iajan es, as condições climá i-
cas ideais pa a o u ismo são equen emen e is as como au o-explica i as. O mé odo dos
ipos de empo de Besanceno oi seleccionado, após uma e isão dos á ios mé odos que
ecei ed: May 2014 accep ed: sep embe 2014
1 esea che a he Cen o de es udos Geog á icos and PhD s uden a he ins i u o de Geog a-
ia e O denamen o do e i ó io da Uni e sidade de Lisboa. e-mail: [email p o ec ed]
2 Coo dina o o he Zephy us esea ch uni o he Cen o de es udos Geog á icos and
P o esso a he ins i u o de Geog a ia e O denamen o do e i ó io, Uni e si y o Lisbon.
e-mail: [email p o ec ed]
3 P o esso a he Depa men o Physical Geog aphy and egional analysis, acul y o
Geo g aphy and His o y, Uni e si y o Ba celona. e-mail: [email p o ec ed]
4 esea che in he Cen e o he esea ch and echnology o ag o-en i onmen al and
Biological sciences, Uni e si y o ás-os-Mon es e al o Dou o. e-mail:[email p o ec ed]
Finis e a, XLiX, 98, 2014, pp. 153-176
154 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
êm indo a se aplicados pa a calcula o po encial do clima pa a o u ismo, bem como pa a
a alia as p e e ências dos u is as. es e mé odo oi adap ado e aplicado a Lisboa, de modo
a analisa a ap idão u ís ica da es ação es i al. O pad ão de ipos de empo esul an e des a
análise oi, em seguida, c uzado com indicado es de p ocu a u ís ica (es a ís icas de ocupa-
ção ho elei a), pe mi indo-nos conclui que, mesmo quando o es ado do empo é ca ego i-
zado como ex emamen e quen e ( ipo de empo 7) ou des a o á el pa a o u ismo ( ipo de
empo 8), não se e lec e de o ma nega i a nas axas de ocupação ho e lei a da cidade de
Lisboa. Des e modo, o es udo em e o ça conclusões ecen es de es udos climá icos apli-
cados ao u ismo que êm indo a con es a os limia es de p e e ências e con o o é mico
an e io men e de inidos po pe i os. e o mulado com as conclusões des e es udo, o mode-
lo de ipos de empo pode se uma e amen a ú il pa a a análise u u a do po encial u ís ico
a endendo às al e ações climá icas p ojec adas.
Pala as-cha e: u ismo e clima, ipos de empo, al e ações climá icas, Lisboa,
Po ugal.
ésumé – ou iSMe e cliMa à liSBonne. analySe de ypeS de eMpS. Bien
que le clima soi considé é comme un élémen essen iel, à eni en comp e pou les p a-
iques ou is iques e qu’il in luence la épa i ion égionale e saisonniè e des ou is es, les
clima s di s a o ables son plus sou en es imés que déc i s. On é udie ici la saison d’é é à
Lisbonne, en lui appliquan le modèle des ypes de emps dis ingués pa Besanceno , adap é
à Lisbonne. O , même lo s des ypes de emps 7 (ex êmemen chaud) ou 8 (dé a o able au
ou isme), on n’y cons a e aucune diminu ion du aux d’occupa ion des chamb es. Cela
donne aison à ce ains au eu s qui me en en dou e les limi es clima iques u ilisées pou
dé e mine la p é é ence he mique e le con o . Les p ésen s ésul a s pou on ê e u iles
pou une e o mula ion du modèle des ypes de emps e pou l’é alua ion du po en iel
ou is ique u u enan en comp e les p ojec ions de changemen clima ique.
Mo s-clés: ou isme e clima , ypes de emps, changemen clima ique, Lisbonne,
Po ugal.
i. in ODUC iOn
he impo ance o ou ism o he Po uguese economy and he unequi ocal
links he sec o has wi h he elemen s o he a mosphe e highligh he need o con-
side clima e in all i s aspec s. Wea he and clima e condi ions a e key elemen s in
he majo i y o ou ism p oduc s p o ided by ou is des ina ions in Po ugal. hus i
is impo an o conside he a mosphe ic aspec s a he p esen momen bu i is also
impo an o conside any u u e changes in he a mosphe ic condi ions (smi h,
155
1993; Wall and Badke, 1994; Gómez-Ma ín, 2005; Hall, 2008; Becken and Hay,
2007; Becken, 2010).
Wea he and clima e ha e a g ea impo ance in ou is s’ decision-making and
in a el expe ience. Wea he and clima e expe ienced a he des ina ion and a he
place o o igin a e ele an mo i a o s o ou ism (eugenio-Ma in and Campos-
-so ia, 2010; sco e al., 2012). Wea he and clima e a he des ina ion play an
impo an ole in decision making because hey ac as a esou ce ha enables o
d e e s he ul ilmen o a numbe o ou ism ac i i ies (Pe y, 1997; Goméz-Ma ín,
2005; Becken and Wilson, 2013) and because hey ac as an a ac ion ac o (Lohma n
and Kaim, 1999; Hamil on and Lau, 2004). Wea he and clima e in he place o o i-
gin can de e mine a el mo i a ion, iming o a el and choice o des ina ion (sco
and Lemieux, 2009, 2010). acco ding o smi h (1993) and Wall (2007), he e is a
s a is ical i be ween he a i al o B i ish ou is s in Po ugal and he amoun o ain
in he p e ious summe in B i ain.
O he analyses (agnew, 1997) ha e also ound a co espondence be ween he
inc ease in he ou bound ou ism ollowing a cold win e . he e a e also se e al
o he ac o s weighing in he selec ion o a des ina ion. ou ism li e a u e has explai-
ned he mo i a ion o a elling and des ina ion selec ion as he esul o wo in e -
ac ing s eng hs, he need o a el (“push”) and he a ac i eness ac o s (“pull”,
C omp on, 1979) he la e co e ing elemen s such as he landscape, clima e and
cul u e (s a ic), bu equally hospi ali y se ices as well as accessibili y (dynamic)
and cu en decisions (p ices, p omo ion and e en ashion ends), whe eas “push”
ac o s a e ela ed o a se o in angible needs el by he indi idual (C omp on, 1979;
Chon, 1989; Lubbe, 1998; Kozak, 2002).
Wea he is an in insic componen o he a el expe ience (sco e al., 2012),
and o many a elle s wea he condi ions a he des ina ion can in luence he deg ee
o sa is ac ion (Hübne and Gössling, 2012). in a s udy unde aken o assess ou is -
wea he in e ac ions, Becken and Wilson (2013) concluded ha ou is s ha had o
adjus hei a el ou es, he iming o a el o he ac i i ies du ing hei holiday due
o ad e se wea he condi ions we e less sa is ied han hose ha epo ed no changes.
Clima e and wea he can allow ou is s o enjoy hei holiday ac i i ies sa ely and
com o ably, helping hem ul il he desi es ha o iginally b ough hem o he eso
and, consequen ly, aising hei sa is ac ion le els (Gómez-Ma ín, 2005). his is
signi ican o a numbe o easons, especially he economic epe cussions, since
sa is ac ion should in luence u u e isi s: sa is ied ou is s end o e u n o he des i-
na ion, whe eas dissa is ied ou is s may seek new des ina ions (Becken, 2010;
Hübne and Gössling, 2012) o p o ide nega i e wo d-o -mou h ecommenda ions o
amily and iends (Gössling e al., 2006; Mans eld e al., 2007). in a su ey unde -
aken a he Ca ibbean island o Ma inique du ing an ex eme wea he e en (p o-
longed, hea y ain all du ing he d y season), 17% o he inqui ed indica ed ha hey
we e unlikely o e u n and 4% epo ed ha hey would no e u n, wi hou a doub ,
due o he expe ienced wea he pa ame e s (Hübne and Gössling, 2012). he impo -
ance ha a mosphe ic condi ions ha e on ou is s’ decision-making and in a el
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon
156
expe ience equi es he e alua ion o clima e- ou is po en ial a he des ina ions. he
a ssessmen o clima e esou ces can play an impo an ole in p o iding in o ma ion
o ou is s and ope a o s. Clima e in o ma ion o long- e m planned ips can de e -
mine − apa om des ina ion choice − he ime o a el and he planning o ac i i ies.
P io o he depa u e, clima e and wea he in o ma ion will also be o use o
packing (adequa e clo hing and equipmen ) and scheduling he a el ou e. Du ing
holidays, ime will mos de ini ely ma k he on-si e beha iou o he ou is , and
ende iable o un iable he ac i i ies ha had been o me ly planned.
Clima e and wea he in o ma ion is jus as impo an o he ou ism supply,
meaning, ou ism agen s and ope a o s, ei he when deciding whe he o make he
i n es men (and ha e a eal analysis on expec ed e u ns), as o ope a ing cos s. Deci-
sions on he loca ion o new eso s, building and landscape design and cons uc ion
iming (sco and Lemieux, 2010) can bene i om in o ma ion on he no mal alues
o clima ic elemen s such as empe a u e, humidi y, ain all, p e ailing winds (Goméz-
-Ma ín, 2005). he cons uc ion ma e ials, he si e, hickness, shape, colou and o ien-
a ion o he oo and açades should all ake in o accoun he his o ical clima e in o de
o p o ide com o able and sa e a eas o leisu e. Landscape planning should also be
adequa e o he clima e equi emen s o he des ina ion mode a ing he in luence o
some a mosphe ic elemen s (Goméz-Ma ín, 2005). sui ed a chi ec u e can, addi io-
nally, help educe cos s wi h a i icial hea ing o coolin g sys ems.
he assessmen o clima e esou ces can be a undamen al ool in he planning
o ou is des ina ions cu en ly and in he u u e. he pu pose o his pape is o
asses s he clima e sui abili y o Lisbon o ou ism, making use o he wea he ype
me hodology in o de o es ablish a baseline o a u u e assessmen o he ci y’s
po en ial unde he p ojec ed clima e scena ios. o achie e hese aims, he pape
p esen s he de ining cha ac e is ics o ou ism in he geog aphical a ea o s udy and
examines he ulne abili y o he sec o o clima e change. hen i desc ibes he
me hodology and da a used, and he main esul s and conclusions ob ained.
ii. s UDy a ea
1. Tou ism in Lisbon (po ugal)
eu ope emains he mos popula holiday des ina ion in he wo ld, hos ing o e
hal o he o al ou is a i als, ha ing su passed, o he i s ime e e , he one
b illion ma k in 2012 – quad upling he a i als egis e ed in 1950 (UnW O -Wo ld
ou ism O ganiza ion, 2013). in e na ional ou ism e enue g ows along wi h he
a i als a e, o alling 837 billion € in 2012. Wi hin eu ope, he Medi e anean s ill
holds a p i ileged posi ion. Po ugal is one o he sou he n eu opean coun ies ha
has been ou doing he sub- egion, in e ms o demand sha e (UnW O, 2013).
almos 7.7 million ou is s en e ed Po ugal in 2012 (UnW O, 2013). i is he
6 h coun y in e ms o numbe o in e na ional a i als in he sou he n eu ope/Medi-
R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga

157
e anean egion, alling behind spain, i aly, u key, G eece and C oa ia and 5 h in
e ms o ou ism expendi u es, wi h 11,056 million € accoun ed o in 2012
(UnW O, 2013). adding up o ha , domes ic ou ism is, by no means, some hing o
dis ega d (o e 6 million people) ( u ismo de Po ugal, 2013b).
Lisbon has been unde going an inc ease in ou ism demand o he las deca-
des ( u ismo de Lisboa, 2011; B i o Hen iques, 2003). Du ing he 1990s and he
i s decade o he 21s cen u y, se e al in e na ional e en s concu ed o he boos-
ing o he capi als’ in e na ional image (eu opean Capi al o Cul u e in 1994,
Lisbon Wo ld exhibi ion 1998, Ue a eu opean oo ball Championship in 2004).
Mega e en s ha e been widely used o a ac isi o s and in es men (edwa ds e
al., 2002; icha ds and Wilson, 2004). he eme gence and expansion o low-cos
ai lines ha e also con ibu ed o imp o e he accessibili y o he egion and, hence,
s imula e i s g owing ole as a ci y b eak des ina ion (Wo ld a el and ou ism
Council, 2007).
Lisbon is known o i s wa m and d y summe s ( ain all occu s p edominan ly
be ween Oc obe and ap il). he pleasan empe a u es ha ypi y he egion’s
wea he (maximum a e age empe a u e in Lisbon in July is 28.1ºC and he mini-
mum a e age o Janua y is 8.1ºC) de i e om egional geog aphic ac o s, such as
la i ude and he p oximi y o he a lan ic Ocean.
he a ou able na u al asse s can explain, o a g ea ex en , Lisbon’s cen al
loca ion. wo sunny cos al lines – es o il and a ábida – shel e ed om he equen
no h and nW winds by he opog aphic con igu a ion pa ly explain he ou is
a ac i eness o he egion.
so, a e ha ing come in hi d place o a e y long pe iod o ime, behind he
alga e and Madei a, Lisbon is now he second na ional ou ism des ina ion. om
Janua y o Oc obe 2013 he Po uguese s a is ics ins i u e es ima ed o e 4 million
gues s in Lisbon, o alling up o 9.5 million o e nigh s, mos o which om o eign
ma ke s (2.78 million in e na ional gues s agains 1.3 million domes ic ou is s)
( u is mo de Po ugal, 2013a).
in he las yea s, he ci y has been awa ded nume ous dis inc ions ( o ins ance,
i was o ed, epea edly, Eu ope’s Leading Des ina ion, Eu ope’s Leading Ci y B eak
Des ina ion and Eu ope’s Leading C uise Des ina ion, by he Wo ld T a el Awa ds)
and, i has been g an ed many e e ences om in e na ional media ( u ismo de
Lisboa, 2011). al hough he in luence o media co e age o Lisbon’s popula i y has
ye o be demons a ed, li e a u e emphasizes he ole o media ega ding pe cep ions
(Hübne and Gössling, 2012) and as being able o s imula e, c ea e o educe in e es
in places and ac i i ies (Bu le , 1990 and 2011).
he ou ism demand pa e n in he ci y demons a es some seasonali y. an
analy sis o Lisbon’s oom occupa ion a es om 2005 o 2010 ( ig.1) shows clea ly
h ee dis inc i e pe iods: a lowe demand season ha s e ches om no embe o
eb ua y, highe peeks o demand in ap il, May, augus , sep embe and Oc obe
and some mon hs in be ween – Ma ch, June and July – ha p esen sligh ly lowe
oom occupa ion sha es, bu s ill a ound 60/70 %.
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon
158 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
acco ding o Bu le and Mao (1997) ypology o seasonali y, a des ina ion ha
demons a es wo ime-spans o highe demand would i unde he wo-peak seaso-
nali y pa e n.
ig. 1 – oom-occupa ion a es o he ci y o Lisbon, pe mon h, om 2005 o 2010.
Fig. 1 – Taxa de ocupação-qua o da cidade de Lisboa, po mês, de 2005 a 2010.
sou ce: Tu ismo de Lisboa
he ci y’s ou ism o e is qui e di e si ied. in a ecen s udy unde aken by he
u ismo de Lisboa, ou is s made e e ence o he local hospi ali y, he accessi bili y
o in e es poin s, abundance o cul u al he i age and a chi ec u e, quali y o he gas-
onomy and clima e as some o he de e mining pull ac o s in Lisbon. in he e alua-
ion o he pa ame e s mos in luen ial o he o e all sa is ac ion, clima e and
wea he and monumen s we e he only pa ame e s collec ing an a e age a ing g ea-
e han 8.5 (o , al e na i ely, a deg ee o sa is ac ion o 85%) acco ding o Obse -
a ó io do u ismo de Lisboa (2011).
2. Vulne abili y o ou ism o clima e change in Lisbon (po ugal)
s udies abou clima e change in Po ugal (using di e en clima e scena ios)
indica e ha empe a u e will end o inc ease in he o de o 3ºC o 7ºC o he
s umme season in mainland Po ugal, pa icula ly a ec ing he no he n and Cen al
egions. in he a ea o Lisbon he empe a u e will inc ease on a e age 1.7 ºC and
2.5ºC (B2 and a2 scena ios) (Wilbanks e al., 2007) by mid XXi cen u y, while ha
change could each 2 o 4ºC by mid XXi cen u y and 5 o 9ºC by he end o he cen-
u y, o he maximum summe empe a u es (san os and Mi anda, 2006).
Di e en scena ios o ecas a educ ion in annual ain all in mainland Po ugal by
20% o 40% o cu en le els, mos ly due o a educed ainy season which is expec ed
o be mo e concen a ed in sp ing and au umn. he majo i y o he models p edic a
mode a e ain all inc ease in he no h du ing he win e season o he pe iod
159
2070-2099 in compa ison o he baseline pe iod o 1961-1990. M odel p ojec ions a e
less consis en o he Cen e and sou h in he win e season o he same pe iod (s an os
e al., 2001). acco ding o he second epo o he siaM p ojec (Clima e Change in
Po ugal - scena ios, impac s and adap a ion Measu es), a educ ion o 150 mm in
median annual ain all is es ima ed un il 2050, wi hin he ou di e en scena ios; he
educ ion would be especially accen ua ed in he au umn (san os and Mi anda, 2006).
al hough some global clima e models, such as coupled a mosphe e–ocean gene al
ci cula ion model eCHaM4/OPyC3 (semeno and Beng sson, 2002) and he Hadley
Cen e model (allen and ing am, 2002 and allan and soden, 2008) sugges ha , in he
u u e, p ecipi a ion will occu p edominan ly as sho - e m hea y ain all e en s. i
should be no ed ha he e is no e idence o an inc ease o hea y ain all e en s in he
pas h ee decades in Lisbon (aguia , 2010).
he p ojec ed changes in he s udy a ea could ha e di ec and indi ec i mpac s ha
may a ec he ou is sec o in opposing ways. Changes in clima e pa ame e s will
cause signi ican changes in p esen clima e- ou ism po en ial o he a ea. hese could
ma e ialize in a a ou able expansion o he ou is season, sp eading occupan cy a es
mo e e enly h ough sp ing, au umn and summe . Howe e , pa o he summe ou is
season may su e an impo an dec ease in com o le els (amelung and Vine , 2006;
Mo eno and amelung, 2009). u y and sco (2014) p o ide some new insigh s on
ou is he mal p e e ences o beach ou ism and on he numbe o ideal o unaccep a-
ble mon hs o Medi e anean beach and u ban ou is des ina ions by ea ly, mid and end
o he XXi cen u y. he u u e clima e scena io could ep esen an oppo uni y o educe
he seasonali y ha has adi ionally cha ac e ized he ou is sec o in he s udy egion
(Hein e al., 2009). acco ding o Hadwen e al. (2011) places whe e a ma ked a ia ion
in clima e (di e ences in win e and summe empe a u es, o p onounced we o d y
seasons) exis s, seasonali y is mainly d i en by hese di e ences. in con as , he educ-
ion in p ecipi a ion could lead o a educ ion in he a ailabili y o wa e supplies and an
inc ease o wa e quali y p oblems isks. he dec eased uno in he spanish pa o he
ansbounda y i e basins is likely o accen ua e e en u he he expec ed dec ease o
wa e a ailabili y in he Po uguese e i o y (san os e al, 2001). ha si ua ion would
oblige he eassessing o ou ism de elopmen models – especially o p ojec s ha
d emand g ea amoun s o wa e , such as eso s wi h as ga dens ha demand cons an
i iga ion (Gössling e al., 2001; B i o H en iques e al., 2010), swimming pools, gol
cou ses − and o eassess managemen o he cu en hyd ic esou ces in o de o deal
wi h he u u e, possibly inc eased, d emand o wa e (Gössling e al., 2011; eU, 2007).
iii. Me HODs anD Da a
1. Me hods o e alua e clima e po en ial o ou ism
acco ding o sco e al., (2008) he nume ous a emp s o iden i y mos a ou-
able o op imal clima ic condi ions o ou ism, bo h in gene al and o speci ic
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon
160 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
ou ism segmen s and ac i i ies ( u y and sco , 2013) can be clus e ed in o h ee
ypes o app oaches: expe -based, e ealed p e e ence and s a ed p e e ence.
a) included in he expe -based app oach a e he clima e e alua ing me hods
ha se e al geog aphe s ha e ansposed om bioclima ology in o de o adequa ely
e alua e he clima e po en ial o egions o ou ism. hese me hods (o en i ndexes)
classi y he in eg a ed e ec o clima e pa ame e s on people, associa ing a numbe
o me eo ological a iables pe cei ed as decisi e o pu suing ou doo ec ea ion. a
i s gene a ion o indexes was p oposed by esea che s such as B u ne (1963),
Hughes (1967), Da is (1968) o sa améa (1980), based on a i hme ical ope a ions
wi h clima e pa ame e s such as sunshine hou s, empe a u e o p ecipi a ion and
numbe o days wi h occu ence o ain all. sa améa’s clima ico-ma in index had
he pa icula i y o inco po a ing wa e empe a u e, wind speed, og, ice and snow.
n o wi hs anding hei u ili y, hese me hods we e he objec o c i icism. One o he
c i ics aised by Besanceno (1990) is he calcula ion o hese indexes h ough he use
o clima e pa ame e s exp essed in di e en uni s o measu emen . ano he ecu in g
c i ic conce ned he ailu e o use he o ali y o a mosphe ic en i onmen al a ibu es
impo an o ou ism (De ei as, 2003, 2008; Gómez-Ma ín, 2006). Las ly, hese
indexes comple ely o e look consume p e e ence (Gómez-Ma ín, 2006).
in 1985 Mieczkowski de eloped a comp ehensi e app oach, amed wi hin his
i s gene a ion indexes, he Tou ism Clima e Index ( Ci) ha combined se en a ia-
bles and is s ill equen ly applied (Mo gan e al., 2000; sco and McBoyle 2001;
sco e al., 2004; amelung and Vine , 2007). he alue o each clima e pa ame e is
di ided in o classes and each class is asc ibed an index, e lec ing i s adequacy o
ou ism. Ci was designed bea ing in mind he p ac ice o s igh seeing ac i i ies.
a es and weigh s we e based on expe judgmen and on M ieczkowski’s own opi-
nion (Mo eno, 2010). his subjec i i y is one o he c i icisms di ec ed a his index.
u he mo e, as i is calcula ed wi h a e age clima e da a, ins ead o ac ual obse a-
ions, i a ely exp esses wea he as expe ienced by ou is s (Besanceno , 1990).
simul aneously, Besanceno e al., (1978) and Besanceno (1985, 1990) de e-
loped ano he ool: wea he yping. ins ead o using a e age da a, his me hod p o-
ides a syn hesis o he combina ion o daily clima e elemen s. O iginally, he
classi ica ion elabo a ed by Besanceno was de eloped o comp ehend he d emands
o sea-side ou ism and was adap ed o mass ou ism a e wa ds. i encompassed
nine ypes o wea he , se en o which a e a ou able o he p ac ice o ou doo
ec ea ion (e en i hey include a ligh deg ee o discom o ) and wo a e un a ou-
able o ou doo leisu e. in o de o p o ide a holis ic e alua ion o clima e, he
wea he ype me hodology combined he ollowing daily pa ame e s: sunshine
(hou s), cloud co e (oc as), p ecipi a ion (du a ion o quan i y), maximum empe a-
u e, wind speed (m/s) and apou p essu e (hPa). he h esholds we e i s d awn
om he obse a ion o aca ione ’s beha iou on he eu opean seaside (and nex
adap ed o di e en wo ld si es) and om bioclima ological known h esholds.
C i icisms o his me hod ha e been aised (sco e al., 2008, 2012), pa i-
cula ly because wea he yping was p ima ily based on subjec i e expe opinion
167
wo sou ces o da a we e used in his esea ch:
1) o he assessmen o wea he - ypes in Lisbon, Daily sunshine (h), cloud
co e (oc as), p ecipi a ion (mm), daily empe a u es (ºC), wind speed (m/s) and
ela i e humidi y (%) alues we e collec ed, in o de o calcula e Pe , om nCDC
po al (h p://www.ncdc.noaa.go /cdo-web/) o he Lisbon/Gago Cou inho, a i s
o de obse a o y (38° 46’n la i ude, 9° 08’W longi ude and 105 m al i ude). he
s udied pe iod was 2000-2010 (including he la e and exclu ding 2005, due o a
g ea numbe o gaps). he mon hs unde analysis we e, as p e iously e e ed, June
o sep embe . each day was classi ied sepa a ely in o one o he wea he - ypes class
o able ii and he equency o he di e en wea he ypes we e calcula ed pe deca-
de. his is he mos sui able empo al scale when gi ing in o ma ion on wea he in
empe a e clima es ha ha e a p onounced annual cycle (Lin and Ma za akis, 2008).
i s adequacy o ou ism and clima e in o ma ion o ou is s is ein o ced by he ac
ha holidays usually las a week o a o nigh , a he han a mon h.
2) o assess he possible clima e condi ions in he u u e, aking in o accoun
p ojec ed clima e changes, minimum and maximum empe a u e we e d awn om
9 egional clima e model ( CM) simula ion based on he in e na ional Panel on
Clima e Change (iPCC) – syn hesis epo on emission scena ios (s es), a1B
emission scena io (Nakićeno ić e al., 2000) om he enseMBLes p ojec
(h p://ensembles-eu.me o ice.com; an de Linden and Mi chell 2009). he da a-
se s we e ex ac ed o e he eu opean sec o (27ºn – 72ºn, 22ºW – 45ºe) and
we e bilinea ly in e pola ed om hei o iginal o a ed g ids o egula g ids o
0.25º× 0.25º. Las ly, he g id-box o e Lisbon was isola ed.
iV. esUL s anD DisCUssiOn
in summe ime, 70 o 90% o he days a e i o ou doo ec ea ion in Lisbon,
i we assume ype 8 as he sole wea he ype inadequa e o ou ism. e en i we
exclu de ype 7 (ex emely ho wea he ) om a ou able ypes o wea he , he e-
quency o occu ence o he ypes o wea he 1 o 6 would always exceed 50%,
a ying om 51% o 81% (which means ha 5 o 8 days ou o 10 a e sui able o
isi ing). ype 7, classi ied by i s excessi e maximum ai empe a u e o by a si ua-
ion o ex eme hea s ess (PET ≥35ºC) eaches i s highes equency du ing Augus
and he i s en days o sep embe , p ecisely when he ci ies’ ou is occupa ion is a
one o i s highes poin s.
We can dis inguish h ee di e en egimes o wea he - ypes in Lisbon: i) he
wo i s decades o June, ii) he hi d decade o June, July and augus and
iii) sep embe (pa icula ly he las 20 days, al hough he i s decade al eady shows
some di e ences).
i) in June, du ing he i s en-day in e al, he equency o cool days ( ype 4)
is almos he same as ho , sul y days ( ype 3) bu , as he mon h p og esses, cool days
become less and less equen . he a e o un a ou able days ( ype 8) is supe io o
he one egis e ed on he wo mon hs ahead, bu in e io o sep embe .
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon

168 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
ig. 2 – summe wea he ype equencies o 10-day pe iods in Lisbon (2000-2010).
(colou ed igu e online)
Fig. 2 – F equência de oco ência de ipos de empo no Ve ão em Lisboa, em pe íodos de 10 dias (2000-2010).
( e são a co es online)
169
ii) h oughou July and augus he wea he ype pa e n is qui e homo geneous.
ype 1 ( e y good, sunny wea he ) occu s in ci ca 30% o he cases (o mo e) and
al e na es wi h ypes 3 and 7 as he mos equen . Un a ou able wea he occu s in
less han 10% o he days.
iii) in sep embe he e is a la ge p opo ion o ype 8 (un a ou able wea he
o ou ism). in mos cases, i is jus i ied by he occu ence o p ecipi a ion (50%),
by a pa icula ly low numbe o sunshine hou s (28%) o by nebulosi y (18%).
in sep embe he e is also a decline in he equency o ype 1, eco ding lowe
a es han in any o he o he mon hs bu ype 2 occu s mo e o en han in he p e-
ceding mon hs.
ig. 3 – P opo ion o a ou able days (1-7 wea he ypes) pe en-day in e al, o each mon h.
Fig. 3 – P opo ção de dias a o á eis ( ipos de empo 1 a 7) po in e alos de dez dias, pa a cada mês.
as can be e i ied in igu e 3, whe eas June, July and augus a e ai ly
egula , he amoun o a ou able days in sep embe can be qui e di e se om
yea o yea , usually declining as he mon h p og esses, ansi ioning om summe
o au umn.
he exis ing ways o alida ing he clima ic p e e ences o aca ione s a e:
a) analysis o he ela ion be ween me eo ological condi ions and demand
b eha iou ( e ealed p e e ence); b) conclusions deduc ed om su eys (s a ed
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon
170 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
p e e ences). he second was used in his s udy. u he , as i had been p e iously
no ed in he assessmen o Ca alonia by Gómez-Ma ín (2006) o in he assessmen
o u y and sco (2014), he e seems o be a disc epancy be ween isi a ion and
he mal com o – conside ing he equency o ex emely ho wea he in July and
augus which, acco ding o he he mo-physiological indexes, would be
unpleasan . as jus i ied by Gómez-Ma ín (2006) his disc epancy may ha e a
numbe o explana ions. On he one hand, clima e is only one o he de e minan s
o he pe iod chosen o aca ions. he clima e expe ienced a he o igin (B ecken,
2010) o he exis ence o o he esou ces (he i age, spo s, e en s and he like) a e
de e minan o he demand. seasona li y depends as much on clima e as on he
wo k lexibili y o school calenda . ligh and oom a es canno be dis ega ded
when analysing he demand pa e n. he e is also a dis ibu ion o he ou ism
demand h oughou a big pa o he yea (excluding he pe iod om no embe o
eb ua y) ha ela es wi h a new end in a elling: di e si ying he numbe o
sho leng h jou neys (du ing a long weekend) as ou is s a e no longe sa is ied
wi h a sole pe iod o aca ions o a single des ina ion. his is easie nowadays
hanks o lowe ai a es.
no wi hs anding he high ou is demand du ing pe iods whe e he occu enc e
o wea he ype 7 (Ex emely ho wea he ) is equen , we conside ed i as he leas
accep able wea he ype o ou ism. al hough p e ious s udies ha e egis e ed ai
empe a u e p e e ences ha would jus i y pushing i o he op imal ai empe a-
u e spec um (Ma inez-iba a and Gómez-Ma ín, 2012; u y and sco , 2014)
and, hence, classi y i wi hin wea he ypes 1-3, hose s udies e lec ed p e e ences
o beach ou ism. We do no exclude he 3s (sun, sea, sand) ou ism as possible in
Lisbon (wi hin he Me opoli an a ea he e a e se e al sea-side eso s) bu i is no
he p ima y mo i a ion when a elling o Lisbon (Obse a ó io do u ismo de
Lisboa, 2011). in o de o unde s and he mal pe cep ions and beha iou al es-
ponses we would need o ques ion ou is s and moni o hei beha iou du ing days
classi ied as wea he ype 7.
empe a u e h esholds ha we e p e iously de ined in he wea he - ype
ca a logue we e c ossed wi h p ojec ions o summe maximum and minimum daily
empe a u es o 2020 and 2050 ( ig. 4), unde a1b scena io, in o de o e i y
whe he clima e would s ill be ideal in Lisbon du ing he summe mon hs.
Maximu m empe a u es o he summe o 2020 a e expec ed o be wi hin he
ideal ange a all imes p ojec ed (Nakićeno ić e al., 2000; an de Linden and
Mi chell, 2009), whe eas in 2050 some days a e expec ed o be unaccep ably ho
(abou 9% o he daily maximum empe a u es du ing summe a e expec ed o be
>33ºC) and, o cou se, empe a u e has o be ela ed wi h he o he clima e a ia-
bles. none heless, we can see in igu e 4 ha he highes inc ease is ela ed o a
change in minimum empe a u es, a he han in he maximum empe a u es.
P e haps minimum empe a u es should be included in u u e index o mula ion.
171
ig. 4 – Maximum and minimum daily empe a u es p ojec ed
o summe s 2020 and 2050 (a1b scena io).
Fig. 4 – Tempe a u as mínimas e máximas diá ias p e is as
pa a os Ve ões de 2020 e 2050 (cená io A1b).
COnCLUsiOns
he wea he ype model was selec ed and implemen ed o p o ide in a de ailed
empo al scale a comp ehensi e in e p e a ion o he wea he condi ions expe ienced
by ou is s in Lisbon du ing he summe . se e al help ul ac o s con ibu ed o he
selec ion o his me hodology, one o which was he in eg a ion o a he mo physio-
logical index and he o he he in eg a ion o ou is p e e ences in he de ini ion o
h esholds. P edominan ly, we ollowed he ones de ined o he wea he ype appli-
ca ion o Ca alonia (which we e based on de ined biome eo ological a ings and
ou is s pe cep ions and p e e ences). Howe e , he obse ed beha iou o ou is s in
Lisbon leads us o modi y ype 7, in eg a ing an “Ex emely ho wea he ” ype.
ecu ing o da a om a i s -o de obse a o y (June-sep embe , o he pe io d
2000-2010), an analysis o he wea he in he summe wi h his ypology was pe -
o med. C ossing he da a wi h ho el occupancy, esul s indica e ha in sep embe ,
despi e he highe equency o days classi ied as ype 8 (un a ou able o ou ism),
ho el occupa ion egis e ed i s highes a es.
as p e ious s udies had al eady e u ed he alidi y o he mal com o
h esholds and ideal empe a u e anges de ined by expe s, c ossing ou analysis
wi h ou is demand also leads us o ein o ce he ques ion o whe he he assumed
widesp ead bounda ies a e adequa e. assumed he mal com o h esholds we e on
he basis o p ojec ions o he Medi e anean’s declining a ac i eness.
Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon
172 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga
as men ioned p e iously, com o expec a ions a e e e ed o by many au ho s as
a decisi e pa o ou is he mal pe cep ions. he e o e, u he esea ch is needed o
unde s and wha expec a ions ou is s ha e when a elling o u ban des ina ions in
sou he n eu ope, which ai empe a u e spec um is pe cei ed as op imal, which is con-
side ed ole able and how a e pe cep ions and p e e ences going o shape he esponses
o ou is s o u u e clima e scena ios. Wha is mo e, exposu e o a mosphe ic condi-
ions is lowe in u ban ou ism han in beach ou ism o na u e ou ism and un a ou able
condi ions can be easie o a oid by eplacing ou doo ac i i ies o indoo ac i i ies,
such as shopping, isi ing museums/monumen s, o dining (Lopes e al., 2011).
applying he wea he – ype model o he u u e, h ough se ies o es ima ed
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion, can p o ide in o ma ion on he sui abili y o clima e
o ou ism in he decades ahead. an analysis o simula ed summe empe a u es
(a1b scena io) demons a es ha changes a e mo e p onounced in minimum em-
pe a u es han in maximum empe a u es (maximum empe a u es a e expec ed o
exceed he op imal empe a u e h eshold in augus , bu only in 2050, emaining
ideal du ing he emaining summe mon hs).
ne e heless, jus as impo an as eal clima e and wea he , o e en mo e, is he
pe cep ion o clima e and wea he (Becken, 2010). u he , when i comes o pe -
cep ions, he media ha e a e y impo an ole o play ha can bo h s imula e, c ea e
o educe in e es in places and ac i i ies (Bu le , 2011). i is hus o he g ea es
impo ance o make eliable clima e in o ma ion a ailable o all pa icipan s in he
ou ism sec o .
aCKnOWLeDGeMen s
he p ojec U ban Tou ism and Clima e Change (U Ban/aU /0003/2008) was sponso ed by
he undação pa a a Ciência e ecnologia ( C ); he Po uguese eam was coo dina ed by he la e
P o . Hen ique and ade. aquel Mache e would like o exp ess he since es g a i ude o P o esso
Hen ique and ade o his in elec ual guidance, aining and o his iendship. We would like o exp ess
ou since e acknowledgmen o P o esso João and ade dos san os om school o sciences and ech-
nology & Ci aB, Uni e si y o ás-os-Mon es and al o Dou o o p o iding da a simula ed wi h he
egional clima e model ( CM), essen ial o his pape . We a e also hank ul o he anonymous e e ees
and he edi o o he sugges ions ha ha e con ibu ed o g ea ly amelio a e he manusc ip .
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