Tourism and climate in Lisbon: an assessment based on weather types

ToU iSM aND CLiMaTE iN LiSBoN. aN aSSESSMENT BaSED oN WEaTHE TYpES aquel Mache e1 an ónio lopeS2 Ma Belén góMez-Ma ín3 helde aga4 abs ac – al hough clima e is pe cei ed as an essen ial pa o ou ism, in luencing ou is ic egional and seasonal dis ibu ion pa e ns, ideal clima e condi ions o ou ism a e o en assumed, a he han demons a ed. a e e iewing he dis inc ools ha ha e been applied in o de o e alua e clima e po en ial o ou ism, as well as ou is s’ p e e ences, Besanceno s’ wea he - ypes me hod was chosen. his model was adap ed and applied o Lisbon, e alua ing he sui abili y o he summe season o ou ism ac i i ies. he esul ing wea he ype pa e n was hen c ossed wi h he seasonal ou is demands ( isi a ion s a- is ics), allowing o conclude ha e en when he wea he is ca ego ized as ex emely ho ( ype 7) o un a ou able o ou ism ( ype 8) i does no e lec in he oom occupa ion a es o he ci y o Lisbon, ein o cing ecen ad ances in ou ism clima ology, ha de y expe based h esholds o he mal p e e ences and com o . a e o mula ion o he wea he ype model wi h ou indings can be a use ul ool o u u e assessmen s o ou is po en ial unde p ojec ed clima e changes. Keywo ds: ou ism and clima e, wea he - ypes, clima e change, Lisbon, Po ugal. esumo – u iSMo e cliMa eM liSBoa. análiSe coM BaSe noS “ ipoS de eMp o”. ainda que o clima seja is o como pa e essencial das ac i idades u ís icas, in luenciando os pad ões de dis ibuição espácio- empo al dos luxos de iajan es, as condições climá i- cas ideais pa a o u ismo são equen emen e is as como au o-explica i as. O mé odo dos ipos de empo de Besanceno oi seleccionado, após uma e isão dos á ios mé odos que ecei ed: May 2014 accep ed: sep embe 2014 1 esea che a he Cen o de es udos Geog á icos and PhD s uden a he ins i u o de Geog a- ia e O denamen o do e i ó io da Uni e sidade de Lisboa. e-mail: [email p o ec ed] 2 Coo dina o o he Zephy us esea ch uni o he Cen o de es udos Geog á icos and P o esso a he ins i u o de Geog a ia e O denamen o do e i ó io, Uni e si y o Lisbon. e-mail: [email p o ec ed] 3 P o esso a he Depa men o Physical Geog aphy and egional analysis, acul y o Geo g aphy and His o y, Uni e si y o Ba celona. e-mail: [email p o ec ed] 4 esea che in he Cen e o he esea ch and echnology o ag o-en i onmen al and Biological sciences, Uni e si y o ás-os-Mon es e al o Dou o. e-mail:[email p o ec ed] Finis e a, XLiX, 98, 2014, pp. 153-176 154 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga êm indo a se aplicados pa a calcula o po encial do clima pa a o u ismo, bem como pa a a alia as p e e ências dos u is as. es e mé odo oi adap ado e aplicado a Lisboa, de modo a analisa a ap idão u ís ica da es ação es i al. O pad ão de ipos de empo esul an e des a análise oi, em seguida, c uzado com indicado es de p ocu a u ís ica (es a ís icas de ocupa- ção ho elei a), pe mi indo-nos conclui que, mesmo quando o es ado do empo é ca ego i- zado como ex emamen e quen e ( ipo de empo 7) ou des a o á el pa a o u ismo ( ipo de empo 8), não se e lec e de o ma nega i a nas axas de ocupação ho e lei a da cidade de Lisboa. Des e modo, o es udo em e o ça conclusões ecen es de es udos climá icos apli- cados ao u ismo que êm indo a con es a os limia es de p e e ências e con o o é mico an e io men e de inidos po pe i os. e o mulado com as conclusões des e es udo, o mode- lo de ipos de empo pode se uma e amen a ú il pa a a análise u u a do po encial u ís ico a endendo às al e ações climá icas p ojec adas. Pala as-cha e: u ismo e clima, ipos de empo, al e ações climá icas, Lisboa, Po ugal. ésumé – ou iSMe e cliMa à liSBonne. analySe de ypeS de eMpS. Bien que le clima soi considé é comme un élémen essen iel, à eni en comp e pou les p a- iques ou is iques e qu’il in luence la épa i ion égionale e saisonniè e des ou is es, les clima s di s a o ables son plus sou en es imés que déc i s. On é udie ici la saison d’é é à Lisbonne, en lui appliquan le modèle des ypes de emps dis ingués pa Besanceno , adap é à Lisbonne. O , même lo s des ypes de emps 7 (ex êmemen chaud) ou 8 (dé a o able au ou isme), on n’y cons a e aucune diminu ion du aux d’occupa ion des chamb es. Cela donne aison à ce ains au eu s qui me en en dou e les limi es clima iques u ilisées pou dé e mine la p é é ence he mique e le con o . Les p ésen s ésul a s pou on ê e u iles pou une e o mula ion du modèle des ypes de emps e pou l’é alua ion du po en iel ou is ique u u enan en comp e les p ojec ions de changemen clima ique. Mo s-clés: ou isme e clima , ypes de emps, changemen clima ique, Lisbonne, Po ugal. i. in ODUC iOn he impo ance o ou ism o he Po uguese economy and he unequi ocal links he sec o has wi h he elemen s o he a mosphe e highligh he need o con- side clima e in all i s aspec s. Wea he and clima e condi ions a e key elemen s in he majo i y o ou ism p oduc s p o ided by ou is des ina ions in Po ugal. hus i is impo an o conside he a mosphe ic aspec s a he p esen momen bu i is also impo an o conside any u u e changes in he a mosphe ic condi ions (smi h, 155 1993; Wall and Badke, 1994; Gómez-Ma ín, 2005; Hall, 2008; Becken and Hay, 2007; Becken, 2010). Wea he and clima e ha e a g ea impo ance in ou is s’ decision-making and in a el expe ience. Wea he and clima e expe ienced a he des ina ion and a he place o o igin a e ele an mo i a o s o ou ism (eugenio-Ma in and Campos- -so ia, 2010; sco e al., 2012). Wea he and clima e a he des ina ion play an impo an ole in decision making because hey ac as a esou ce ha enables o d e e s he ul ilmen o a numbe o ou ism ac i i ies (Pe y, 1997; Goméz-Ma ín, 2005; Becken and Wilson, 2013) and because hey ac as an a ac ion ac o (Lohma n and Kaim, 1999; Hamil on and Lau, 2004). Wea he and clima e in he place o o i- gin can de e mine a el mo i a ion, iming o a el and choice o des ina ion (sco and Lemieux, 2009, 2010). acco ding o smi h (1993) and Wall (2007), he e is a s a is ical i be ween he a i al o B i ish ou is s in Po ugal and he amoun o ain in he p e ious summe in B i ain. O he analyses (agnew, 1997) ha e also ound a co espondence be ween he inc ease in he ou bound ou ism ollowing a cold win e . he e a e also se e al o he ac o s weighing in he selec ion o a des ina ion. ou ism li e a u e has explai- ned he mo i a ion o a elling and des ina ion selec ion as he esul o wo in e - ac ing s eng hs, he need o a el (“push”) and he a ac i eness ac o s (“pull”, C omp on, 1979) he la e co e ing elemen s such as he landscape, clima e and cul u e (s a ic), bu equally hospi ali y se ices as well as accessibili y (dynamic) and cu en decisions (p ices, p omo ion and e en ashion ends), whe eas “push” ac o s a e ela ed o a se o in angible needs el by he indi idual (C omp on, 1979; Chon, 1989; Lubbe, 1998; Kozak, 2002). Wea he is an in insic componen o he a el expe ience (sco e al., 2012), and o many a elle s wea he condi ions a he des ina ion can in luence he deg ee o sa is ac ion (Hübne and Gössling, 2012). in a s udy unde aken o assess ou is - wea he in e ac ions, Becken and Wilson (2013) concluded ha ou is s ha had o adjus hei a el ou es, he iming o a el o he ac i i ies du ing hei holiday due o ad e se wea he condi ions we e less sa is ied han hose ha epo ed no changes. Clima e and wea he can allow ou is s o enjoy hei holiday ac i i ies sa ely and com o ably, helping hem ul il he desi es ha o iginally b ough hem o he eso and, consequen ly, aising hei sa is ac ion le els (Gómez-Ma ín, 2005). his is signi ican o a numbe o easons, especially he economic epe cussions, since sa is ac ion should in luence u u e isi s: sa is ied ou is s end o e u n o he des i- na ion, whe eas dissa is ied ou is s may seek new des ina ions (Becken, 2010; Hübne and Gössling, 2012) o p o ide nega i e wo d-o -mou h ecommenda ions o amily and iends (Gössling e al., 2006; Mans eld e al., 2007). in a su ey unde - aken a he Ca ibbean island o Ma inique du ing an ex eme wea he e en (p o- longed, hea y ain all du ing he d y season), 17% o he inqui ed indica ed ha hey we e unlikely o e u n and 4% epo ed ha hey would no e u n, wi hou a doub , due o he expe ienced wea he pa ame e s (Hübne and Gössling, 2012). he impo - ance ha a mosphe ic condi ions ha e on ou is s’ decision-making and in a el Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 156 expe ience equi es he e alua ion o clima e- ou is po en ial a he des ina ions. he a ssessmen o clima e esou ces can play an impo an ole in p o iding in o ma ion o ou is s and ope a o s. Clima e in o ma ion o long- e m planned ips can de e - mine − apa om des ina ion choice − he ime o a el and he planning o ac i i ies. P io o he depa u e, clima e and wea he in o ma ion will also be o use o packing (adequa e clo hing and equipmen ) and scheduling he a el ou e. Du ing holidays, ime will mos de ini ely ma k he on-si e beha iou o he ou is , and ende iable o un iable he ac i i ies ha had been o me ly planned. Clima e and wea he in o ma ion is jus as impo an o he ou ism supply, meaning, ou ism agen s and ope a o s, ei he when deciding whe he o make he i n es men (and ha e a eal analysis on expec ed e u ns), as o ope a ing cos s. Deci- sions on he loca ion o new eso s, building and landscape design and cons uc ion iming (sco and Lemieux, 2010) can bene i om in o ma ion on he no mal alues o clima ic elemen s such as empe a u e, humidi y, ain all, p e ailing winds (Goméz- -Ma ín, 2005). he cons uc ion ma e ials, he si e, hickness, shape, colou and o ien- a ion o he oo and açades should all ake in o accoun he his o ical clima e in o de o p o ide com o able and sa e a eas o leisu e. Landscape planning should also be adequa e o he clima e equi emen s o he des ina ion mode a ing he in luence o some a mosphe ic elemen s (Goméz-Ma ín, 2005). sui ed a chi ec u e can, addi io- nally, help educe cos s wi h a i icial hea ing o coolin g sys ems. he assessmen o clima e esou ces can be a undamen al ool in he planning o ou is des ina ions cu en ly and in he u u e. he pu pose o his pape is o asses s he clima e sui abili y o Lisbon o ou ism, making use o he wea he ype me hodology in o de o es ablish a baseline o a u u e assessmen o he ci y’s po en ial unde he p ojec ed clima e scena ios. o achie e hese aims, he pape p esen s he de ining cha ac e is ics o ou ism in he geog aphical a ea o s udy and examines he ulne abili y o he sec o o clima e change. hen i desc ibes he me hodology and da a used, and he main esul s and conclusions ob ained. ii. s UDy a ea 1. Tou ism in Lisbon (po ugal) eu ope emains he mos popula holiday des ina ion in he wo ld, hos ing o e hal o he o al ou is a i als, ha ing su passed, o he i s ime e e , he one b illion ma k in 2012 – quad upling he a i als egis e ed in 1950 (UnW O -Wo ld ou ism O ganiza ion, 2013). in e na ional ou ism e enue g ows along wi h he a i als a e, o alling 837 billion € in 2012. Wi hin eu ope, he Medi e anean s ill holds a p i ileged posi ion. Po ugal is one o he sou he n eu opean coun ies ha has been ou doing he sub- egion, in e ms o demand sha e (UnW O, 2013). almos 7.7 million ou is s en e ed Po ugal in 2012 (UnW O, 2013). i is he 6 h coun y in e ms o numbe o in e na ional a i als in he sou he n eu ope/Medi- R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga 157 e anean egion, alling behind spain, i aly, u key, G eece and C oa ia and 5 h in e ms o ou ism expendi u es, wi h 11,056 million € accoun ed o in 2012 (UnW O, 2013). adding up o ha , domes ic ou ism is, by no means, some hing o dis ega d (o e 6 million people) ( u ismo de Po ugal, 2013b). Lisbon has been unde going an inc ease in ou ism demand o he las deca- des ( u ismo de Lisboa, 2011; B i o Hen iques, 2003). Du ing he 1990s and he i s decade o he 21s cen u y, se e al in e na ional e en s concu ed o he boos- ing o he capi als’ in e na ional image (eu opean Capi al o Cul u e in 1994, Lisbon Wo ld exhibi ion 1998, Ue a eu opean oo ball Championship in 2004). Mega e en s ha e been widely used o a ac isi o s and in es men (edwa ds e al., 2002; icha ds and Wilson, 2004). he eme gence and expansion o low-cos ai lines ha e also con ibu ed o imp o e he accessibili y o he egion and, hence, s imula e i s g owing ole as a ci y b eak des ina ion (Wo ld a el and ou ism Council, 2007). Lisbon is known o i s wa m and d y summe s ( ain all occu s p edominan ly be ween Oc obe and ap il). he pleasan empe a u es ha ypi y he egion’s wea he (maximum a e age empe a u e in Lisbon in July is 28.1ºC and he mini- mum a e age o Janua y is 8.1ºC) de i e om egional geog aphic ac o s, such as la i ude and he p oximi y o he a lan ic Ocean. he a ou able na u al asse s can explain, o a g ea ex en , Lisbon’s cen al loca ion. wo sunny cos al lines – es o il and a ábida – shel e ed om he equen no h and nW winds by he opog aphic con igu a ion pa ly explain he ou is a ac i eness o he egion. so, a e ha ing come in hi d place o a e y long pe iod o ime, behind he alga e and Madei a, Lisbon is now he second na ional ou ism des ina ion. om Janua y o Oc obe 2013 he Po uguese s a is ics ins i u e es ima ed o e 4 million gues s in Lisbon, o alling up o 9.5 million o e nigh s, mos o which om o eign ma ke s (2.78 million in e na ional gues s agains 1.3 million domes ic ou is s) ( u is mo de Po ugal, 2013a). in he las yea s, he ci y has been awa ded nume ous dis inc ions ( o ins ance, i was o ed, epea edly, Eu ope’s Leading Des ina ion, Eu ope’s Leading Ci y B eak Des ina ion and Eu ope’s Leading C uise Des ina ion, by he Wo ld T a el Awa ds) and, i has been g an ed many e e ences om in e na ional media ( u ismo de Lisboa, 2011). al hough he in luence o media co e age o Lisbon’s popula i y has ye o be demons a ed, li e a u e emphasizes he ole o media ega ding pe cep ions (Hübne and Gössling, 2012) and as being able o s imula e, c ea e o educe in e es in places and ac i i ies (Bu le , 1990 and 2011). he ou ism demand pa e n in he ci y demons a es some seasonali y. an analy sis o Lisbon’s oom occupa ion a es om 2005 o 2010 ( ig.1) shows clea ly h ee dis inc i e pe iods: a lowe demand season ha s e ches om no embe o eb ua y, highe peeks o demand in ap il, May, augus , sep embe and Oc obe and some mon hs in be ween – Ma ch, June and July – ha p esen sligh ly lowe oom occupa ion sha es, bu s ill a ound 60/70 %. Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 158 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga acco ding o Bu le and Mao (1997) ypology o seasonali y, a des ina ion ha demons a es wo ime-spans o highe demand would i unde he wo-peak seaso- nali y pa e n. ig. 1 – oom-occupa ion a es o he ci y o Lisbon, pe mon h, om 2005 o 2010. Fig. 1 – Taxa de ocupação-qua o da cidade de Lisboa, po mês, de 2005 a 2010. sou ce: Tu ismo de Lisboa he ci y’s ou ism o e is qui e di e si ied. in a ecen s udy unde aken by he u ismo de Lisboa, ou is s made e e ence o he local hospi ali y, he accessi bili y o in e es poin s, abundance o cul u al he i age and a chi ec u e, quali y o he gas- onomy and clima e as some o he de e mining pull ac o s in Lisbon. in he e alua- ion o he pa ame e s mos in luen ial o he o e all sa is ac ion, clima e and wea he and monumen s we e he only pa ame e s collec ing an a e age a ing g ea- e han 8.5 (o , al e na i ely, a deg ee o sa is ac ion o 85%) acco ding o Obse - a ó io do u ismo de Lisboa (2011). 2. Vulne abili y o ou ism o clima e change in Lisbon (po ugal) s udies abou clima e change in Po ugal (using di e en clima e scena ios) indica e ha empe a u e will end o inc ease in he o de o 3ºC o 7ºC o he s umme season in mainland Po ugal, pa icula ly a ec ing he no he n and Cen al egions. in he a ea o Lisbon he empe a u e will inc ease on a e age 1.7 ºC and 2.5ºC (B2 and a2 scena ios) (Wilbanks e al., 2007) by mid XXi cen u y, while ha change could each 2 o 4ºC by mid XXi cen u y and 5 o 9ºC by he end o he cen- u y, o he maximum summe empe a u es (san os and Mi anda, 2006). Di e en scena ios o ecas a educ ion in annual ain all in mainland Po ugal by 20% o 40% o cu en le els, mos ly due o a educed ainy season which is expec ed o be mo e concen a ed in sp ing and au umn. he majo i y o he models p edic a mode a e ain all inc ease in he no h du ing he win e season o he pe iod 159 2070-2099 in compa ison o he baseline pe iod o 1961-1990. M odel p ojec ions a e less consis en o he Cen e and sou h in he win e season o he same pe iod (s an os e al., 2001). acco ding o he second epo o he siaM p ojec (Clima e Change in Po ugal - scena ios, impac s and adap a ion Measu es), a educ ion o 150 mm in median annual ain all is es ima ed un il 2050, wi hin he ou di e en scena ios; he educ ion would be especially accen ua ed in he au umn (san os and Mi anda, 2006). al hough some global clima e models, such as coupled a mosphe e–ocean gene al ci cula ion model eCHaM4/OPyC3 (semeno and Beng sson, 2002) and he Hadley Cen e model (allen and ing am, 2002 and allan and soden, 2008) sugges ha , in he u u e, p ecipi a ion will occu p edominan ly as sho - e m hea y ain all e en s. i should be no ed ha he e is no e idence o an inc ease o hea y ain all e en s in he pas h ee decades in Lisbon (aguia , 2010). he p ojec ed changes in he s udy a ea could ha e di ec and indi ec i mpac s ha may a ec he ou is sec o in opposing ways. Changes in clima e pa ame e s will cause signi ican changes in p esen clima e- ou ism po en ial o he a ea. hese could ma e ialize in a a ou able expansion o he ou is season, sp eading occupan cy a es mo e e enly h ough sp ing, au umn and summe . Howe e , pa o he summe ou is season may su e an impo an dec ease in com o le els (amelung and Vine , 2006; Mo eno and amelung, 2009). u y and sco (2014) p o ide some new insigh s on ou is he mal p e e ences o beach ou ism and on he numbe o ideal o unaccep a- ble mon hs o Medi e anean beach and u ban ou is des ina ions by ea ly, mid and end o he XXi cen u y. he u u e clima e scena io could ep esen an oppo uni y o educe he seasonali y ha has adi ionally cha ac e ized he ou is sec o in he s udy egion (Hein e al., 2009). acco ding o Hadwen e al. (2011) places whe e a ma ked a ia ion in clima e (di e ences in win e and summe empe a u es, o p onounced we o d y seasons) exis s, seasonali y is mainly d i en by hese di e ences. in con as , he educ- ion in p ecipi a ion could lead o a educ ion in he a ailabili y o wa e supplies and an inc ease o wa e quali y p oblems isks. he dec eased uno in he spanish pa o he ansbounda y i e basins is likely o accen ua e e en u he he expec ed dec ease o wa e a ailabili y in he Po uguese e i o y (san os e al, 2001). ha si ua ion would oblige he eassessing o ou ism de elopmen models – especially o p ojec s ha d emand g ea amoun s o wa e , such as eso s wi h as ga dens ha demand cons an i iga ion (Gössling e al., 2001; B i o H en iques e al., 2010), swimming pools, gol cou ses − and o eassess managemen o he cu en hyd ic esou ces in o de o deal wi h he u u e, possibly inc eased, d emand o wa e (Gössling e al., 2011; eU, 2007). iii. Me HODs anD Da a 1. Me hods o e alua e clima e po en ial o ou ism acco ding o sco e al., (2008) he nume ous a emp s o iden i y mos a ou- able o op imal clima ic condi ions o ou ism, bo h in gene al and o speci ic Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 160 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga ou ism segmen s and ac i i ies ( u y and sco , 2013) can be clus e ed in o h ee ypes o app oaches: expe -based, e ealed p e e ence and s a ed p e e ence. a) included in he expe -based app oach a e he clima e e alua ing me hods ha se e al geog aphe s ha e ansposed om bioclima ology in o de o adequa ely e alua e he clima e po en ial o egions o ou ism. hese me hods (o en i ndexes) classi y he in eg a ed e ec o clima e pa ame e s on people, associa ing a numbe o me eo ological a iables pe cei ed as decisi e o pu suing ou doo ec ea ion. a i s gene a ion o indexes was p oposed by esea che s such as B u ne (1963), Hughes (1967), Da is (1968) o sa améa (1980), based on a i hme ical ope a ions wi h clima e pa ame e s such as sunshine hou s, empe a u e o p ecipi a ion and numbe o days wi h occu ence o ain all. sa améa’s clima ico-ma in index had he pa icula i y o inco po a ing wa e empe a u e, wind speed, og, ice and snow. n o wi hs anding hei u ili y, hese me hods we e he objec o c i icism. One o he c i ics aised by Besanceno (1990) is he calcula ion o hese indexes h ough he use o clima e pa ame e s exp essed in di e en uni s o measu emen . ano he ecu in g c i ic conce ned he ailu e o use he o ali y o a mosphe ic en i onmen al a ibu es impo an o ou ism (De ei as, 2003, 2008; Gómez-Ma ín, 2006). Las ly, hese indexes comple ely o e look consume p e e ence (Gómez-Ma ín, 2006). in 1985 Mieczkowski de eloped a comp ehensi e app oach, amed wi hin his i s gene a ion indexes, he Tou ism Clima e Index ( Ci) ha combined se en a ia- bles and is s ill equen ly applied (Mo gan e al., 2000; sco and McBoyle 2001; sco e al., 2004; amelung and Vine , 2007). he alue o each clima e pa ame e is di ided in o classes and each class is asc ibed an index, e lec ing i s adequacy o ou ism. Ci was designed bea ing in mind he p ac ice o s igh seeing ac i i ies. a es and weigh s we e based on expe judgmen and on M ieczkowski’s own opi- nion (Mo eno, 2010). his subjec i i y is one o he c i icisms di ec ed a his index. u he mo e, as i is calcula ed wi h a e age clima e da a, ins ead o ac ual obse a- ions, i a ely exp esses wea he as expe ienced by ou is s (Besanceno , 1990). simul aneously, Besanceno e al., (1978) and Besanceno (1985, 1990) de e- loped ano he ool: wea he yping. ins ead o using a e age da a, his me hod p o- ides a syn hesis o he combina ion o daily clima e elemen s. O iginally, he classi ica ion elabo a ed by Besanceno was de eloped o comp ehend he d emands o sea-side ou ism and was adap ed o mass ou ism a e wa ds. i encompassed nine ypes o wea he , se en o which a e a ou able o he p ac ice o ou doo ec ea ion (e en i hey include a ligh deg ee o discom o ) and wo a e un a ou- able o ou doo leisu e. in o de o p o ide a holis ic e alua ion o clima e, he wea he ype me hodology combined he ollowing daily pa ame e s: sunshine (hou s), cloud co e (oc as), p ecipi a ion (du a ion o quan i y), maximum empe a- u e, wind speed (m/s) and apou p essu e (hPa). he h esholds we e i s d awn om he obse a ion o aca ione ’s beha iou on he eu opean seaside (and nex adap ed o di e en wo ld si es) and om bioclima ological known h esholds. C i icisms o his me hod ha e been aised (sco e al., 2008, 2012), pa i- cula ly because wea he yping was p ima ily based on subjec i e expe opinion 167 wo sou ces o da a we e used in his esea ch: 1) o he assessmen o wea he - ypes in Lisbon, Daily sunshine (h), cloud co e (oc as), p ecipi a ion (mm), daily empe a u es (ºC), wind speed (m/s) and ela i e humidi y (%) alues we e collec ed, in o de o calcula e Pe , om nCDC po al (h p://www.ncdc.noaa.go /cdo-web/) o he Lisbon/Gago Cou inho, a i s o de obse a o y (38° 46’n la i ude, 9° 08’W longi ude and 105 m al i ude). he s udied pe iod was 2000-2010 (including he la e and exclu ding 2005, due o a g ea numbe o gaps). he mon hs unde analysis we e, as p e iously e e ed, June o sep embe . each day was classi ied sepa a ely in o one o he wea he - ypes class o able ii and he equency o he di e en wea he ypes we e calcula ed pe deca- de. his is he mos sui able empo al scale when gi ing in o ma ion on wea he in empe a e clima es ha ha e a p onounced annual cycle (Lin and Ma za akis, 2008). i s adequacy o ou ism and clima e in o ma ion o ou is s is ein o ced by he ac ha holidays usually las a week o a o nigh , a he han a mon h. 2) o assess he possible clima e condi ions in he u u e, aking in o accoun p ojec ed clima e changes, minimum and maximum empe a u e we e d awn om 9 egional clima e model ( CM) simula ion based on he in e na ional Panel on Clima e Change (iPCC) – syn hesis epo on emission scena ios (s es), a1B emission scena io (Nakićeno ić e al., 2000) om he enseMBLes p ojec (h p://ensembles-eu.me o ice.com; an de Linden and Mi chell 2009). he da a- se s we e ex ac ed o e he eu opean sec o (27ºn – 72ºn, 22ºW – 45ºe) and we e bilinea ly in e pola ed om hei o iginal o a ed g ids o egula g ids o 0.25º× 0.25º. Las ly, he g id-box o e Lisbon was isola ed. iV. esUL s anD DisCUssiOn in summe ime, 70 o 90% o he days a e i o ou doo ec ea ion in Lisbon, i we assume ype 8 as he sole wea he ype inadequa e o ou ism. e en i we exclu de ype 7 (ex emely ho wea he ) om a ou able ypes o wea he , he e- quency o occu ence o he ypes o wea he 1 o 6 would always exceed 50%, a ying om 51% o 81% (which means ha 5 o 8 days ou o 10 a e sui able o isi ing). ype 7, classi ied by i s excessi e maximum ai empe a u e o by a si ua- ion o ex eme hea s ess (PET ≥35ºC) eaches i s highes equency du ing Augus and he i s en days o sep embe , p ecisely when he ci ies’ ou is occupa ion is a one o i s highes poin s. We can dis inguish h ee di e en egimes o wea he - ypes in Lisbon: i) he wo i s decades o June, ii) he hi d decade o June, July and augus and iii) sep embe (pa icula ly he las 20 days, al hough he i s decade al eady shows some di e ences). i) in June, du ing he i s en-day in e al, he equency o cool days ( ype 4) is almos he same as ho , sul y days ( ype 3) bu , as he mon h p og esses, cool days become less and less equen . he a e o un a ou able days ( ype 8) is supe io o he one egis e ed on he wo mon hs ahead, bu in e io o sep embe . Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 168 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga ig. 2 – summe wea he ype equencies o 10-day pe iods in Lisbon (2000-2010). (colou ed igu e online) Fig. 2 – F equência de oco ência de ipos de empo no Ve ão em Lisboa, em pe íodos de 10 dias (2000-2010). ( e são a co es online) 169 ii) h oughou July and augus he wea he ype pa e n is qui e homo geneous. ype 1 ( e y good, sunny wea he ) occu s in ci ca 30% o he cases (o mo e) and al e na es wi h ypes 3 and 7 as he mos equen . Un a ou able wea he occu s in less han 10% o he days. iii) in sep embe he e is a la ge p opo ion o ype 8 (un a ou able wea he o ou ism). in mos cases, i is jus i ied by he occu ence o p ecipi a ion (50%), by a pa icula ly low numbe o sunshine hou s (28%) o by nebulosi y (18%). in sep embe he e is also a decline in he equency o ype 1, eco ding lowe a es han in any o he o he mon hs bu ype 2 occu s mo e o en han in he p e- ceding mon hs. ig. 3 – P opo ion o a ou able days (1-7 wea he ypes) pe en-day in e al, o each mon h. Fig. 3 – P opo ção de dias a o á eis ( ipos de empo 1 a 7) po in e alos de dez dias, pa a cada mês. as can be e i ied in igu e 3, whe eas June, July and augus a e ai ly egula , he amoun o a ou able days in sep embe can be qui e di e se om yea o yea , usually declining as he mon h p og esses, ansi ioning om summe o au umn. he exis ing ways o alida ing he clima ic p e e ences o aca ione s a e: a) analysis o he ela ion be ween me eo ological condi ions and demand b eha iou ( e ealed p e e ence); b) conclusions deduc ed om su eys (s a ed Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 170 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga p e e ences). he second was used in his s udy. u he , as i had been p e iously no ed in he assessmen o Ca alonia by Gómez-Ma ín (2006) o in he assessmen o u y and sco (2014), he e seems o be a disc epancy be ween isi a ion and he mal com o – conside ing he equency o ex emely ho wea he in July and augus which, acco ding o he he mo-physiological indexes, would be unpleasan . as jus i ied by Gómez-Ma ín (2006) his disc epancy may ha e a numbe o explana ions. On he one hand, clima e is only one o he de e minan s o he pe iod chosen o aca ions. he clima e expe ienced a he o igin (B ecken, 2010) o he exis ence o o he esou ces (he i age, spo s, e en s and he like) a e de e minan o he demand. seasona li y depends as much on clima e as on he wo k lexibili y o school calenda . ligh and oom a es canno be dis ega ded when analysing he demand pa e n. he e is also a dis ibu ion o he ou ism demand h oughou a big pa o he yea (excluding he pe iod om no embe o eb ua y) ha ela es wi h a new end in a elling: di e si ying he numbe o sho leng h jou neys (du ing a long weekend) as ou is s a e no longe sa is ied wi h a sole pe iod o aca ions o a single des ina ion. his is easie nowadays hanks o lowe ai a es. no wi hs anding he high ou is demand du ing pe iods whe e he occu enc e o wea he ype 7 (Ex emely ho wea he ) is equen , we conside ed i as he leas accep able wea he ype o ou ism. al hough p e ious s udies ha e egis e ed ai empe a u e p e e ences ha would jus i y pushing i o he op imal ai empe a- u e spec um (Ma inez-iba a and Gómez-Ma ín, 2012; u y and sco , 2014) and, hence, classi y i wi hin wea he ypes 1-3, hose s udies e lec ed p e e ences o beach ou ism. We do no exclude he 3s (sun, sea, sand) ou ism as possible in Lisbon (wi hin he Me opoli an a ea he e a e se e al sea-side eso s) bu i is no he p ima y mo i a ion when a elling o Lisbon (Obse a ó io do u ismo de Lisboa, 2011). in o de o unde s and he mal pe cep ions and beha iou al es- ponses we would need o ques ion ou is s and moni o hei beha iou du ing days classi ied as wea he ype 7. empe a u e h esholds ha we e p e iously de ined in he wea he - ype ca a logue we e c ossed wi h p ojec ions o summe maximum and minimum daily empe a u es o 2020 and 2050 ( ig. 4), unde a1b scena io, in o de o e i y whe he clima e would s ill be ideal in Lisbon du ing he summe mon hs. Maximu m empe a u es o he summe o 2020 a e expec ed o be wi hin he ideal ange a all imes p ojec ed (Nakićeno ić e al., 2000; an de Linden and Mi chell, 2009), whe eas in 2050 some days a e expec ed o be unaccep ably ho (abou 9% o he daily maximum empe a u es du ing summe a e expec ed o be >33ºC) and, o cou se, empe a u e has o be ela ed wi h he o he clima e a ia- bles. none heless, we can see in igu e 4 ha he highes inc ease is ela ed o a change in minimum empe a u es, a he han in he maximum empe a u es. P e haps minimum empe a u es should be included in u u e index o mula ion. 171 ig. 4 – Maximum and minimum daily empe a u es p ojec ed o summe s 2020 and 2050 (a1b scena io). Fig. 4 – Tempe a u as mínimas e máximas diá ias p e is as pa a os Ve ões de 2020 e 2050 (cená io A1b). COnCLUsiOns he wea he ype model was selec ed and implemen ed o p o ide in a de ailed empo al scale a comp ehensi e in e p e a ion o he wea he condi ions expe ienced by ou is s in Lisbon du ing he summe . se e al help ul ac o s con ibu ed o he selec ion o his me hodology, one o which was he in eg a ion o a he mo physio- logical index and he o he he in eg a ion o ou is p e e ences in he de ini ion o h esholds. P edominan ly, we ollowed he ones de ined o he wea he ype appli- ca ion o Ca alonia (which we e based on de ined biome eo ological a ings and ou is s pe cep ions and p e e ences). Howe e , he obse ed beha iou o ou is s in Lisbon leads us o modi y ype 7, in eg a ing an “Ex emely ho wea he ” ype. ecu ing o da a om a i s -o de obse a o y (June-sep embe , o he pe io d 2000-2010), an analysis o he wea he in he summe wi h his ypology was pe - o med. C ossing he da a wi h ho el occupancy, esul s indica e ha in sep embe , despi e he highe equency o days classi ied as ype 8 (un a ou able o ou ism), ho el occupa ion egis e ed i s highes a es. as p e ious s udies had al eady e u ed he alidi y o he mal com o h esholds and ideal empe a u e anges de ined by expe s, c ossing ou analysis wi h ou is demand also leads us o ein o ce he ques ion o whe he he assumed widesp ead bounda ies a e adequa e. assumed he mal com o h esholds we e on he basis o p ojec ions o he Medi e anean’s declining a ac i eness. Tou ism and Clima e in Lisbon 172 R. Mache e, A. Lopes, M. B. Gómez-Ma ín and H. F aga as men ioned p e iously, com o expec a ions a e e e ed o by many au ho s as a decisi e pa o ou is he mal pe cep ions. he e o e, u he esea ch is needed o unde s and wha expec a ions ou is s ha e when a elling o u ban des ina ions in sou he n eu ope, which ai empe a u e spec um is pe cei ed as op imal, which is con- side ed ole able and how a e pe cep ions and p e e ences going o shape he esponses o ou is s o u u e clima e scena ios. Wha is mo e, exposu e o a mosphe ic condi- ions is lowe in u ban ou ism han in beach ou ism o na u e ou ism and un a ou able condi ions can be easie o a oid by eplacing ou doo ac i i ies o indoo ac i i ies, such as shopping, isi ing museums/monumen s, o dining (Lopes e al., 2011). applying he wea he – ype model o he u u e, h ough se ies o es ima ed empe a u e and p ecipi a ion, can p o ide in o ma ion on he sui abili y o clima e o ou ism in he decades ahead. an analysis o simula ed summe empe a u es (a1b scena io) demons a es ha changes a e mo e p onounced in minimum em- pe a u es han in maximum empe a u es (maximum empe a u es a e expec ed o exceed he op imal empe a u e h eshold in augus , bu only in 2050, emaining ideal du ing he emaining summe mon hs). ne e heless, jus as impo an as eal clima e and wea he , o e en mo e, is he pe cep ion o clima e and wea he (Becken, 2010). u he , when i comes o pe - cep ions, he media ha e a e y impo an ole o play ha can bo h s imula e, c ea e o educe in e es in places and ac i i ies (Bu le , 2011). i is hus o he g ea es impo ance o make eliable clima e in o ma ion a ailable o all pa icipan s in he ou ism sec o . aCKnOWLeDGeMen s he p ojec U ban Tou ism and Clima e Change (U Ban/aU /0003/2008) was sponso ed by he undação pa a a Ciência e ecnologia ( C ); he Po uguese eam was coo dina ed by he la e P o . Hen ique and ade. aquel Mache e would like o exp ess he since es g a i ude o P o esso Hen ique and ade o his in elec ual guidance, aining and o his iendship. We would like o exp ess ou since e acknowledgmen o P o esso João and ade dos san os om school o sciences and ech- nology & Ci aB, Uni e si y o ás-os-Mon es and al o Dou o o p o iding da a simula ed wi h he egional clima e model ( CM), essen ial o his pape . We a e also hank ul o he anonymous e e ees and he edi o o he sugges ions ha ha e con ibu ed o g ea ly amelio a e he manusc ip . BiBLiOG aPHy aguia (2010) sec o cená ios climá icos. In: s an os D, C uz M J (coo d.) Plano Es a- égico de Cascais ace às Al e ações Climá- icas, Câma a Municipal de Cascais. agnew M (1997) ou ism. In: Palu iko J, subak s, agnew M (eds) Economic impac s o he ho summe and unusually wa m yea o 1995. Depa men o he en i onmen , no wich: 139-147. alco o ado M J, Dias a, Gomes V (1999) Bioclima- ologia e u ismo. exemplo de aplicação ao unchal. 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