Arctic geopolitics – another Greenland conflict in the Nordic Council

Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 1 Apl. Prof. Dr. Dr. K. Saalbach Geostrategy and Geopolitics Department 1 49069 Osnabrueck Arctic geopolitics – another Greenland conflict in the Nordic Council 19 January 2026 Summary This working paper provides a brief overview of the Greenland conflict within the Nordic Council and the current developments in the parallel Greenland conflict with the United States. While the international community focuses on the ongoing conflict between the United States and Denmark over control of Greenland, another largely unnoticed conflict concerning Greenland is currently taking place within the Nordic Council. This conflict, also centered on Greenland's status, has reached a critical stage with the now-planned revision of the 1962 Treaty of Helsinki on cooperation between the Scandinavian states. As a result, Denmark must now defend the status quo in Greenland simultaneously against the United States and President Trump on the one hand, and within the Nordic Council on the other, with the threat of losing control over Greenland looming in both conflicts. In 2024, the Faroe Islands and Greenland declared that they would no longer accept their exclusion from Nordic summits on foreign and security policy, to which they were not invited, and that they wished to become full members. An agreement was reached to conduct a legal review of the Helsinki Treaty and a revision is planned in 2026. However, at the end of 2025, the Nordic Council created a fait accompli by amending its rules of procedure, without waiting for the revision of the Helsinki Treaty. Effective January 1, 2026, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Åland became equal members of the Presidium and now participate equally in all important decisions of the Nordic Council. Furthermore, they were officially designated as ‘three countries’. The revision of the treaty was declared a priority by the joint presidency of Denmark and the Faroe Islands. The Faroe Islands want to transform Denmark into a confederation of states, although the details (association, federation, dominion, etc.) are still unclear, but the loss of Danish control over Greenland is a very real possibility. According to the Wall Street Journal, the intelligence coordinator Tulsi Gabbard instructed the US intelligence agencies Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and National Security Agency (NSA) in May 2025 to intensify their gathering of information on the Greenlandic independence movement, whereupon Denmark summoned the US ambassador. In mid-June 2025, the US strengthened Greenland's military ties by removing it from the European Command (EUCOM) and integrating it into the Northern Command (NORTHCOM), which serves homeland defense. A strategy paper was subsequently developed, outlining a concept for the integration and transformation of Greenland. According to the proposal, Greenland would be granted associated status (Associated Territory of the United States), which would give Greenlanders the greatest possible freedoms but also allow the United States to have political influence and the opportunity for a systematic modernization of air, sea, and road transport, as well as of the digital infrastructure. Greenland would then vote on its final status after approximately 10 to 15 years. Further cooperation within NATO and with Denmark would be continued. In addition, the United States is further expanding its military presence: Denmark granted the US military free access to three air bases in Karup, Skrydstrup, and Aalborg on the Danish mainland in 2025. The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland met in Washington on January 14, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. Both sides maintained their positions ("We agree to disagree") but agreed to form a high-level working group. According to the US, this group will conduct technical talks on the acquisition agreement for the U.S. to acquire Greenland, while the Danes assumed that it will focus on resolving the differences. In summary, Denmark is under intense political pressure from two sides simultaneously, and the loss of control over Greenland is a realistic possibility. Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 2 Content 1 The Greenland Conflict in the Nordic Council ...................................................................................... 3 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 The Revision of the Treaty of Helsinki ........................................................................................... 3 2 Recent Developments in the Conflict with the United States .............................................................. 4 3 Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 5 4 Literature References ........................................................................................................................... 6 Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 3 1 The Greenland Conflict in the Nordic Council 1.1 Introduction This working paper provides a brief overview of the Greenland conflict within the Nordic Council and the current developments in the parallel Greenland conflict with the United States. While the international community focuses on the ongoing conflict between the United States and Denmark over control of Greenland, another largely unnoticed conflict concerning Greenland is currently taking place within the Nordic Council. This conflict, also centered on Greenland's status, has reached a critical stage with the now-planned revision of the 1962 Treaty of Helsinki on cooperation between the Scandinavian states. 1.2 The Revision of the Treaty of Helsinki The Helsinki Treaty of 1962 1 is the legal basis for the Nordic Cooperation and the Nordic Council, the official body for Nordic inter-parliamentary cooperation between Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, and the self-governed countries Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the autonomous region of Åland 2 . Within the Nordic Council of Ministers as platform inter-governmental cooperation, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Åland are also represented, but do not have voting rights 3 . In 2024, the Faroe Islands and Greenland stated that they will no longer accept exclusion from Nordic summits on foreign and security policy where they were not invited in 2024 and want to be full members 4 . The Faroe Islands threatened to exit the Nordic Cooperation: “We Are either All in or Not at All” 5 The full members were initially hesitant to grant a new status 6 , but agreed on a legal review of the Helsinki Treaty, and a revision is planned in 2026 7 . However, at the end of 2025, the Nordic Council created a fait accompli by amending its rules of procedure, without waiting for the revision of the Helsinki Treaty. Effective January 1, 2026, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Åland became equal members of the Presidium and now participate equally in all important decisions of the Nordic Council 8 . Furthermore, they were officially designated as three countries 9 . The revision of the treaty was declared a priority by the joint presidency of Denmark and the Faroe Islands 10 . The “three in one” concept of Denmark and its countries Faroe Islands and Greenland is based on the term Rigsfællesskabet that can be translated as ‘Community of the Realm’ which indicates legal equality between the three states while the Danish government prefers the term ‘Unity of the Realm’ 11 . The activities of the Faroe Islands naturally also affect Greenland and are supported by Greenland. However, Denmark is trying to avoid these debates, as they could 1 Official file of the Nordic Council of Ministers and Nordic Council 2018 2 Åland is an autonomous and demilitarized area of Finland. The cooperation is currently regulated in Article 44 of the Helsinki Treaty as follows: “Article 44 It is in the Nordic Council that the popularly elected assemblies of the Nordic countries and those of the Faeroe Islands, Greenland and the Åland Islands, the Governments of the Nordic countries and the Home Rule Governments of the Faeroe Islands and Greenland and the Regional Government of the Åland Islands co-operate.” 3 Edvardsen 2025 4 Dam 2024, Edvardsen 2024 5 Edvardsen 2024 6 Dam 2024 7 Edvardsen 2025 8 Nordic Council 2025. The solution of the question how three equal countries can simultaneously be a subordinate part of other equal countries will be interesting. 9 Nordic Council 2025 10 Nordic Council of Ministers 2026 11 Denmark 2020 Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 4 ultimately lead to the dissolution of Denmark as a union state into three states, which would shrink Denmark’s land area to 43,100 km² 12 . Models under discussion include free associations of small island states like the New Zealand model 13 , a federation, the Netherlands model of constitutional countries 14 , a Commonwealth, or a Dominion construct where mainland Denmark would still be largest actor, but only a part of legally equal and independent nation states. Another option is a free association. In Greenland, free association is being discussed as a possible solution, like the arrangement practiced by some Pacific Island states with the US, which assumes defense responsibilities but in return has a veto right on defense policy (defense veto) and strategic issues (right of strategic denial) 15 . In the Arctic, this could effectively block Russia and China. As a result, Denmark must now defend the status quo in Greenland simultaneously against the United States and President Trump on the one hand, and within the Nordic Council on the other hand. 2 Recent Developments in the Conflict with the United States At the end of March 2025, US Vice President J.D. Vance, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright made a brief visit to the US military base at Pittufik in Greenland, although no official meeting with Greenlandic government representatives took place 16 . According to the Wall Street Journal, the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard instructed in May 2025 the US intelligence agencies Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and National Security Agency (NSA) to intensify their collection of information on the Greenlandic independence movement, whereupon Denmark summoned the US ambassador 17 . But also Denmark recognized the need for an intensive examination of Greenlandic elites, and in 2025 Danish researchers presented a comprehensive and detailed study analyzing the affiliations of 2,052 individuals with 3,412 positions in 456 institutions. This study identified a core group of 123 networked individuals in politics, administration, business, and academia Virtually all the politicians had a close biographical connection to Greenland. 18 In mid-June 2025, the US strengthened Greenland's military ties by removing it from the European Command (EUCOM) and integrating it into the Northern Command (NORTHCOM), which serves homeland defense. 19 A strategy paper was subsequently developed, outlining a concept for the integration and transformation of Greenland. According to the proposal, Greenland would be granted associated status (Associated Territory of the United States), like Puerto Rico's initial status 20 , which would give Greenlanders the greatest possible freedoms but also allow the United States to have political influence and the opportunity for a systematic 12 Thorwarth 2025 13 Pearce 2025. The Cook Islands and Niue are in free association with New Zealand with independent nation status, but they remain part of New Zealand. 14 Auswärtiges Amt 2025. The Kingdom of The Netherlands consists of 4 constituent countries, the Netherlands, Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Marteen. All countries regulate their domestic affairs on their own, but act together if affairs of the entire Kingdom are concerned. 15 Lam/Vaughn 2017, Christensen 2024 16 Harding/Murray 2025 17 O’Rourke et al., 2025 18 Sivertsen et al. 2025 19 Robertson 2025 20 Puerto Rico later gained Commonwealth status. Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 5 modernization of air, sea, and road transport, as well as of the digital infrastructure. 21 . Greenland would then vote on its final status after approximately 10 to 15 years. Further cooperation within NATO and with Denmark would be continued. 22 . In addition, the United States is further expanding its military presence: Denmark granted the US military free access to three air bases in Karup, Skrydstrup, and Aalborg on the Danish mainland in 2025 and accepted that American, rather than Danish, law applies under the agreement 23 . Meanwhile, Denmark is intensifying cooperation among all actors. In the new 2024–2033 Defence Agreement, the Danish Ministry of Defence aims for closer cooperation. Intelligence briefings between the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) and the Faroe Islands and Greenland will be intensified 24 . In December 2025, the Danish intelligence service publicly warned of a potential military threat to Greenland from Donald Trump, who, after a longer pause, revived the Greenland issue at the end of 2025 25 . At the end of December, a US Special Representative for Greenland was appointed: Louisiana’s 26 Governor Jeff Landry, who declared the acquisition of Greenland by the United States as his goal. 27 The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, met in Washington on January 14, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio 28 . Both sides maintained their positions ("We agree to disagree") but agreed to form a high-level working group 29 , which, according to US statements, is intended to conduct “technical talks on the acquisition agreement” for the U.S. to acquire Greenland 30 , while the Danes assumed it was intended to resolve the differences. Several European countries, including France, Germany, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, sent a small group of soldiers to assess the situation in Greenland as a sign of solidarity with Denmark 31 , prompting US President Trump to threaten tariffs 32 . 3 Summary This working paper provided a brief overview of the Greenland conflict within the Nordic Council and the current developments in the parallel Greenland conflict with the United States. While the international community focuses on the ongoing conflict between the United States and Denmark over control of Greenland, another largely unnoticed conflict concerning Greenland is currently taking place within the Nordic Council. This conflict, also centered on Greenland's status, has reached a critical stage with the now-planned revision of the 1962 Treaty of Helsinki on cooperation between the Scandinavian states. As a result, Denmark must now defend the status quo in Greenland simultaneously against the United States and President Trump on the one hand, and within the Nordic Council on the other, with the threat of losing 21 Gunasekara-Rockwell 2025 22 Gunasekara-Rockwell 2025 23 Gunasekara-Rockwell 2025 24 Danish Ministry of Defence 2025 25 Associated Press 2025 26 This has also a symbolic dimension. Originally, Louisiana was a French colony which was much larger than the modern federal state and was sold from France to the United States in 1803. 27 Tamsut/Shelton 2025 28 Beigang 2026 29 Tagesschau online 15 Jan 2026 30 Burrows et al. 2026 31 Burrows et al. 2026 32 Birnbaum/Tucker 2026 Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 6 control over Greenland looming in both conflicts. In 2024, the Faroe Islands and Greenland declared that they would no longer accept their exclusion from Nordic summits on foreign and security policy, to which they were not invited, and that they wished to become full members. An agreement was reached to conduct a legal review of the Helsinki Treaty and a revision is planned in 2026. However, at the end of 2025, the Nordic Council created a fait accompli by amending its rules of procedure, without waiting for the revision of the Helsinki Treaty. Effective January 1, 2026, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Åland became equal members of the Presidium and now participate equally in all important decisions of the Nordic Council. Furthermore, they were officially designated as three countries. The revision of the treaty was declared a priority by the joint presidency of Denmark and the Faroe Islands. The Faroe Islands want to transform Denmark into a confederation of states, although the details (association, federation, dominion, etc.) are still unclear, but the loss of Danish control over Greenland is a very real possibility. According to the Wall Street Journal, intelligence coordinator Tulsi Gabbard instructed the US intelligence agencies Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and National Security Agency (NSA) in May 2025 to intensify their gathering of information on the Greenlandic independence movement, whereupon Denmark summoned the US ambassador. In mid-June 2025, the US strengthened Greenland's military ties by removing it from the European Command (EUCOM) and integrating it into the Northern Command (NORTHCOM), which serves homeland defense. A strategy paper was subsequently developed, outlining a concept for the integration and transformation of Greenland. According to the proposal, Greenland would be granted associated status (Associated Territory of the United States), which would give Greenlanders the greatest possible freedoms but also allow the United States to have political influence and the opportunity for a systematic modernization of air, sea, and road transport, as well as of the digital infrastructure. Greenland would then vote on its final status after approximately 10 to 15 years. Further cooperation within NATO and with Denmark would be continued. In addition, the United States is further expanding its military presence: Denmark granted the US military free access to three air bases in Karup, Skrydstrup, and Aalborg on the Danish mainland in 2025. The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland met in Washington on January 14, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. Both sides maintained their positions ("We agree to disagree") but agreed to form a high-level working group. According to the US, this group will conduct technical talks on the acquisition agreement for the U.S. to acquire Greenland, while the Danes assumed it will focus on resolving the differences. In summary, Denmark is under intense political pressure from two sides simultaneously, and the loss of control over Greenland is a realistic possibility. 4 Literature References Associated Press (2025): Danish Intelligence Report Warns of US Military Threat Under Trump Published December 12, 2025 by Military.com Auswärtiges Amt (2025): Niederlande: Politisches Porträt 11.03.2025 Beigang, M. (2026): US-Vize empfängt Außenminister: Heute könnte sich im Weißen Haus die Zukunft Grönlands entscheiden. Tagesspiegel 14 January 2026 Birnbaum, M., Tucker, B. (2026): Trump announces tariffs on European countries opposing Greenland takeover. Washington Post online Last update 18 January 2026 Burrows, E. et al. (2026): European troops arrive in Greenland as talks with US highlight ‘disagreement’ over island’s future. Associated Press online 15 January 2026 Bryant, M. (2025): Denmark approves US military bases on Danish soil as Trump eyes Greenland. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/11/denmark-votedefence-bill-us-airbases Geopolitics_Greenland_Nordic_Council_2026 7 Christensen, J.T. (2024): Greenland gets its own strategy for foreign, security and defence policy: Nothing about us, without us. Canadian Global Affairs Institute. https://assets.nationbuilder.com/cdfai/pages/5625/attachments/original/1719270426/Greenlan d_gets_its_own_Strategy_for_Foreign_Security_and_Defence_Policy_Nothing_about_us_wit hout_us.pdf?1719270426. Dam, R.W. (2024): Faroese independence is suddenly back on the table - Nordic Labour Journal April 29, 2024 Danish Ministry of Defence (2025): Fact Sheet: First agreement on the Arctic and North Atlantic Under the 2024-2033 Defence Agreement Denmark (2020): The Prime Minister's Office Departmental responsibilities: The unity of the Realm https://web.archive.org/web/20200801120418/https://www.stm.dk/_a_2752.html Edvardsen, A. (2025): Support of Independent Membership for Greenland and the Faroe Islands in Nordic Cooperation. High North News Updated at 02 May 2025 Greenland (2024): Greenland in the world – Nothing about us without us. https://paartoq.gl/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Greenlands_Foreign_Security_and_Defense_Policy_2024_2033.pdf Gunasekara-Rockwell, E. (2025): NORTHCOM Proposal for US–Greenland Integration A Path to the Future In. Strategic Horizons, Fall 2025, page 270-285 Available on the website of the Department of War media.defense.gov Harding, A., Murray, A. (2025): Vance scolds Denmark during Greenland trip. BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news./articles/cr525e49m2do Lum, T., Vaughn, B. (2017): The Pacific Islands: Policy issues. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R44753.pdf. Nordic Council (2025): Nordic Council reform: Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Åland join the Presidium. Nordic Council News Nordic Council of Ministers (2026): Denmark and the Faroe Islands take over presidency of Nordic Council of Ministers 01.01.26 News Nordic Council of Ministers and Nordic Council (2018): The Helsinki Treaty - Treaty of Cooperation between Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Official PDF File from 2018 ISBN 978-92-893-5833-0 (PDF) http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/ANP2018-746 O’Rourke, R. et al. (2025): Changes in the Arctic: Background and issues for congress. Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41153 Østergaard, M. et al. (2023): Free association in a Greenlandic context. Nasiffik Working Paper Robertson, N. (2025): Pentagon shifts Greenland to US Northern Command in shakeup. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2025/06/17/pentagon-shiftsgreenland-to-us-northern-command-in-shakeup/ Sivertsen, M.F. et al. (2025): The Power Elite in Greenland British Journal of Sociology, 2025; 00:1–8 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.700027 Tamsut, F. Shelton, J. (2025): Denmark fumes over new US envoy to Greenland. Deutsche Welle https://www.dw.com/en/denmark-fumes-over-new-us-envoy-to-greenland/a-75267414 December 22, 2025 Thorwarth, K. (2025): Färöer-Inseln wollen eigener Staat werden. Frankfurter Rundschau 23.08.2025