Yan, Ka l; Su, Jing
A icle — Published Ve sion
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: he di usion o
economic s a ec a
Asia Eu ope Jou nal
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Yan, Ka l; Su, Jing (2025) : Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: he di usion o
economic s a ec a , Asia Eu ope Jou nal, ISSN 1612-1031, Sp inge , Be lin, Heidelbe g, Vol. 23, Iss.
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion
o economic s a ec a
Ka lYan1· JingSu1,2
Recei ed: 27 Sep embe 2024 / Re ised: 8 Janua y 2025 / Accep ed: 11 Ma ch 2025 /
Published online: 28 Ma ch 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Abs ac
The Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI) has been one o he p ima y ehicles h ough
which China expo s i s in as uc u e and de elopmen al s anda ds. China’s
expanding ambi ions o become an in e na ional s anda d-se e compelled a Japa-
nese esponse. Shinzo Abe’s go e nmen has ini ia ed s a egies such as he Pa -
ne ship o Quali y In as uc u e. This pape jux aposes he Chinese and Japanese
app oaches o secu ing hei posi ion in he global go e nance o in as uc u e
inance, wi h a pa icula ocus on he high-speed ailway indus y. I posi s ha
economic s a ec a has di used om Japan o China and hen back o Japan. In
emula ing Chinese economic s a ec a , Japan has inc eased s a e in ol emen in
in as uc u e p ojec expo s and cen alized au ho i y wi hin he P ime Minis e ’s
O ice. The pe mea ion o such s a ec a and he appa en escala ion o Sino-Japa-
nese compe i ion bea signi ican consequences o egional ade and de elopmen-
al coope a ion egimes. This heigh ened compe i ion may ini ially a o d Sou h and
Sou heas Asian na ions a b oade choice o se ice and in as uc u e p o ide s. In
he long un, i he compe i ion solidi ies, seconda y s a es migh ind hemsel es
compelled o in eg a e in o ei he China’s hub-and-spoke model o Japan’s ein ig-
o a ed p oduc ion ne wo ks. Mo eo e , such in eg a ion could ende seconda y
s a es dependen on he echnology and inance supplied by egional g ea powe s.
Howe e , he e en ual s uc u e o he egion will likely depend on how hese wo
majo powe s na iga e hei i al y. As Sou h and Sou heas Asian s a es and co po-
a ions become en wined in bo h s a es’ geopoli ical and geoeconomic ne wo ks, we
canno ule ou he e olu ion o a la icewo k o in e sec ing ela ionships.
Keywo ds The bel and oad ini ia i e· Pa ne ship o quali y in as uc u e· Sino-
Japanese ela ions· The Chinese Na ional De elopmen and Re o m Commission·
Japanese P ime Minis e ’s O ice
Ex ended au ho in o ma ion a ailable on he las page o he a icle
416
K.Yan, J.Su
In oduc ion
The lei mo i o de elopmen inance and in as uc u e expo in he Asia–Paci ic
could be ha o Sino-Japanese compe i ion. As a la ecome , China success ully
caugh up and agg essi ely expo ed i s in as uc u e p ojec s, especially a e
launching he Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI). Announced in 2013, i s goal was
o enhance connec i i y among signa o ies, speci ically in policy coo dina ion,
in as uc u e connec i i y, unimpeded ade, inancial in eg a ion, and people- o-
people connec ions. In as uc u e connec i i y si s a he co e o he BRI and has
caugh he a en ion o egional g ea powe s.
As a adi ionally dominan supplie o in as uc u e de elopmen , he ise
o China “compelled a Japanese esponse,” such as he emphasis on high-quali y
in as uc u e (Li and Lipscy 2022). Addi ionally, o imp o e i s geoeconomic
and geopoli ical posi ions in he Asia–Paci ic, Japan’s economic s a ec a ma ked
a e u n o de elopmen inance, a long- e m Japanese p ac ice since he end o
he Second Wo ld Wa . Such s a ec a , howe e , in ol ed poli ical cen aliza ion,
which en ailed s eng hening he P ime Minis e ’s (PM) adminis a i e au ho i y
and imp o ing in e -agency coo dina ion—a ma ked ea u e o he second Abe
adminis a ion.
Agains his backd op, his pape asks wo esea ch ques ions. Fi s , why did
Japanese economic s a ec a in ol e a cen aliza ion o poli ical powe ? Second,
how was such cen aliza ion implemen ed du ing he Abe adminis a ion? We
a gue ha a ecip ocal di usion o economic s a ec a occu ed be ween China
and Japan. S a ec a , acco ding o Thu bon and Weiss (2021), in ol es a econ-
igu a ion o domes ic ins i u ions o ou compe e geopoli ical and geoeconomic
challenges. In he case o de elopmen inance and in as uc u e expo , hese
policy ideas we e i s ansmi ed om Japan o China, hen back o Japan. How-
e e , he la e ’s e-adop ion o wha Chen (2021) called “me can ilis de elop-
men ideals” wen beyond “suppo ing na ional i ms wi h s a e-backed c edi s”
as Abe in oduced p o ound ins i u ional changes o be e coo dina e in as uc-
u e expo s. These empi ical phenomena sugges ha (1) a ising China can ha e
majo implica ions on he de elopmen policies o ad anced coun ies and (2)
p ac ices o s a ec a , hough p omp ed by geoeconomic and geopoli ical p es-
su es, a e ul ima ely condi ioned by domes ic de elopmen al p ac ices.
The pape does no deny he salience o powe cen aliza ion in he hands o
he Japanese PM ha p eda es Abe’s enu e. Howe e , we wan o a gue ha
ex e nal p essu e om China p o ided a c ucial ca alys , especially ega ding
in as uc u e expo policies. Agains his backd op, he con ibu ion o his
s udy is wo old. Fi s , heo e ically, he ansna ional ci cula ion o in as uc-
u e de elopmen p ac ices challenges he con en ional unde s anding ha no ms
and p ac ices usually low om ad anced coun ies o de eloping ones. De el-
opmen al ideas did no simply low om Japan o China as China’s unique p ac-
ices also in luenced Japan’s managemen o i s geoeconomic s a egies. Mo eo-
e , pa icula p ac ices o s a ec a a e condi ioned by a s a e’s de elopmen al
417
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion o …
ou look. Second, empi ically, his pape de ails he ins i u ional changes b ough
by Shinzo Abe’s cen aliza ion o adminis a i e and decision-making powe s.
The e u n o s a ec a bea s signi icance o he engagemen o c oss-bo de busi-
nesses in he u u e and inancial lows. The Asia–Paci ic egion will po en ially wi -
ness g ea e in e en ion om policymake s, who op o c ea e he enabling condi-
ions o mul ina ional co po a ions o pene a e o e seas ma ke s. And his could
lead o indis inc bounda ies be ween businesses’ and s a es’ o e seas economic
ac i i ies.
This quali a i e s udy p ocess aces ecip ocal di usion be ween Japan and
China and e alua es he cen aliza ion o powe unde Shinzo Abe. We highligh
ha his s udy is a snapsho o a pa icula pe iod. The cen aliza ion o powe in he
cu en PM’s O ice (PMO, he Kan ei), on he one hand, s a ed du ing he Hashi-
mo o pe iod and, on he o he hand, has weakened unde he leade ship o Fumio
Kishida. Da a was collec ed om o icial documen s and news co e age published in
Chinese, English, and Japanese. These documen s we e also supplemen ed by semi-
s uc u ed in e iews conduc ed in China and Japan. In e iewees we e ec ui ed
h ough he snowball me hod and selec ed based on hei p o essional and academic
knowledge o he inne wo kings o he Chinese and Japanese na ional go e nmen s
and Sino-Japanese ela ions. Fo example, we ha e in e iewed o icials om he
Chinese Na ional De elopmen and Re o m Commission (NDRC), China’s Cen e
o In e na ional Knowledge on De elopmen , China S a e Railway G oup (CR),
Japan In e na ional Coope a ion Agency (JICA), Japan Ex e nal T ade O ganiza ion
(JETRO), Cen al Japan Railway Company, o me Japanese go e nmen o icials,
hink ank esea che s in Japan and China, and schola s wo king on Sino-Japanese
ela ions in China and Japan. In e iews a e coded h oughou he ex . Fo example,
191119Y indica es an in e iew conduc ed wi h Ms./M . Y on No embe 19, 2019.
This pape is di ided in o six sec ions, including he in oduc ion and conclu-
sion. The second sec ion ou lines he main a gumen and posi ions he con ibu ion
o his s udy agains exis ing li e a u e on economic s a ec a and policy di usion.
The hi d sec ion p o ides an o e iew o policy lea ning on he Chinese side. The
ou h sec ion examines Japan’s esponses o a ising China, and he i h sec ion
ou lines he speci ic ensuing ins i u ional changes.
Li e a u e e iew
China’s economic s a ec a has ocused on s eng hening i s geos a egic posi ion-
ing h ough he p o ision o o e seas in as uc u e de elopmen al assis ance, and
such globaliza ion was done h ough “emula [ing] he way Japan p ac iced de el-
opmen inance h ough being a ecipien o Japanese ODA” (Chen 2021). The
de ini ion o s a ec a ini ially ocused on unde s anding p ac ices h ough which
noneconomic goals we e achie ed h ough economic means, such as sanc ions and
ade (Hi schman 1980; Baldwin 1985; D ezne 1999). Newe concep ualiza ions,
howe e , looked inwa d as schola s began o examine he ela ionship be ween
domes ic economic p ac ices and geopoli ical and geoeconomic p essu es. Such
s a ec a ollows h ee logics: geoeconomics, ocusing on s eng hening comme cial
418
K.Yan, J.Su
compe i i eness; geopoli ics, ocusing on mili a y migh ; and geopoli ics and geo-
economics, ocusing on bo h comme cial and mili a y supe io i y (Thu bon and
Weiss 2021). The exe cise o s a ec a , acco ding o Thu bon and Weiss (2021), o
example, in ol es he deploymen o domes ic policy ools and indus ial policies.
In he con ex o China, Chinese s a ec a aims o acili a e he “going global”
o Chinese capi al, c ea e in e na ional ma ke s, and explo e oppo uni ies o eco-
nomic coope a ion and China’s o e capaci y issues. Mo e impo an ly, es ablishing
i s -mo e ad an ages in o eign ma ke s allows China o expo and in e na ion-
alize i s echnical s anda ds and s anda ds o global (p i a e) go e nance (Yoshi-
ma su 2018; Yan 2022). Weiss and Thu bon (2021) see he Chinese case as one ha
uniquely achie es mili a y-economic usion capable “ o lead in bo h mili a y and
economic a enas” and p edominan ly d i en by s a e-owned en e p ises (SOEs).
Agains his backd op, in eg a ing SOEs’ o e seas business ac i i ies and he
s a e’s s a egic agenda is o u mos impo ance o op Chinese leade s. Schola s
ha e ound ha he NDRC is c ucial o such endea o (Yan 2021, 2022; Pal iel and
Yan 2025). The commission plays he ole o a ga ekeepe , especially conce ning
in e na ional in as uc u e p ojec s, despi e he c ea ion o he China In e na ional
De elopmen Coope a ion Agency and ela ed e o ms o he commission in he la e
2010s ha can be in e p e ed o ha e weakened he commission’s abili y o coo di-
na e domes ic and in e na ional si ua ions. Indeed, wi h he Leading G oup o P o-
mo ing he BRI and i s Execu i e O ice bo h loca ed inside he NDRC compound,
he commission’s di ec o s ha e since se ed as he depu y di ec o o he leading
g oup and he o ice manage o i s execu i e o ice. These ins i u ional a ange-
men s signi y he salience and con inuous in ol emen o he commission in he
BRI- ela ed policy p ocess. In ac , he commission sees in e na ional in as uc u e
p ojec s as akin o “domes ic ansac ion in which a Chinese company is con ac ed
o deli e a Chinese p ojec paid in Chinese unds” (Pal iel and Yan 2025).
A ca e ul Japanese obse e may a gue ha such s a ec a has been Japan’s
ma ked ea u e since he Second Wo ld Wa . This s a emen is no w ong, conside -
ing ha Japan has long been using in as uc u e de elopmen assis ance o s a-
egic pu poses. Howe e , con empo a y s a ec a in Japan in ol ed s eamlining
decision-making and implemen a ion p ocesses a he na ional le el. Powe cen ali-
za ion was he e o e adop ed o achie e a simila goal as Chinese s a ec a —execu-
i e coo dina ion o ensu e compliance and success ul implemen a ion o o e seas
p ojec s. These p ac ices belong o Japan’s b oade ini ia i e—wha Ka ada (2020)
called a “new s a e-led egional geoeconomic s a egy” o “ ein en i s use ulness in
he egional se ing.”
Mo eo e , acco ding o Ka ada and Liao (2020), China’s agg essi e expo
o in as uc u e p ojec s has “pulled [ed] Japan back o i s oo s” by e-adop ing
de elopmen inance. Among a ious means o policy di usion, such as coe cion,
lea ning, and emula ion, i seems ha di usion be ween China and Japan occu ed
h ough compe i ion, as Japan needed o manage a ising China. In implemen ing
hese policies, many schola s iden i ied a p ocess o wo-way in luence o mu ual
lea ning in in as uc u e expo s a egies (K a z and Pa lice ic 2019; Jiang 2019;
Yoshima su 2023; Mao e al. 2024). Fo example, Japan’s policy amewo ks a ound
he Pa ne ship o Quali y In as uc u e (PQI) and Expanded Pa ne ship o
419
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion o …
Quali y In as uc u e (EPQI) we e s a egic esponses o he BRI. Japan’s o icial
de elopmen assis ance (ODA) became a key ool o hei implemen a ion, and he
scope o he wo ini ia i es was b oadened beyond Asia o include he es o he
globe. Japan also placed a p emium on an i-co up ion, openness, and anspa ency,
as well as inancial sus ainabili y, as co e p inciples o in as uc u e aid, in addi-
ion o emphasizing he deb -se icing capabili y o ecipien na ions. These s a e-
gies conce ning high-quali y in as uc u e we e p ac iced in a complex geopoli i-
cal en i onmen igge ed by he BRI and ook shape in a mo e de ensi e pos u e
as Japanese leade s ealized ha hey mus deal wi h he China challenge in global
in as uc u e compe i ion (Yoshima su 2023). In so doing, Japan e-e alua ed i s
egional in as uc u e inance s a egies o encou age in as uc u e expo s (K a z
and Pa lice ic 2019).
As a esul , Japan and China, h ough mu ual lea ning, adop ed he o he ’s p ac-
ices o ying comme cial inancing wi h go e nmen in ol emen wi h a pa icu-
la ocus on physical in as uc u e and indus ializa ion (Jiang 2019). Taking no e
o he China challenge, Yoshima su (2022) highligh ed he ensuing cen aliza ion
o policymaking and changes in he ins i u ional a angemen s o he Kan ei. Mao
e al. (2024) also picked up he poin conce ning a s eng hened Kan ei in he ealm
o in as uc u e policymaking. These p ac ices can be emblema ic o wha Chen
(2021) no ed as a e u n o me can ilis de elopmen inance policy.
The a o emen ioned li e a u e p o ides he pe ec oil o he p esen s udy.
Ou con ibu ion is wo old. Fi s , heo e ically, his pape ad ances he concep o
“ ecip ocal di usion” be ween Japan and China. I highligh s how Japan’s policy
adap a ions we e no only eac ions o China’s ac ions bu we e also acili a ed by
p e-exis ing domes ic enabling condi ions, such as his o ical me can ilis p ac ices.
Ul ima ely, Japan’s oo s in de elopmen alism—de ined as ac i e s a e engagemen
in p omo ing economic de elopmen —helped shape powe cen aliza ion (Ea on
and Ka ada 2022).
We see ecip ocal di usion as an impo an aspec o he mul idi ec ional low o
policy p ac ices highligh ed by Ea on and Ka ada (2022), Leu e (2022), and Liao
and Ka ada (2022). Based on ou obse a ion o Sino-Japanese in e ac ion, ecip-
ocal di usion is mo e likely o happen when wo compe ing s a es sha e simila
de elopmen al app oaches. Japan emodeled i s domes ic ins i u ions o o e come
p essu es in in as uc u e expo . I s adop ion o in e en ionis s a egies was con-
di ioned by i s pas de elopmen al p ac ices, emphasizing he s a e’s adminis a i e
guidance and o ganic in e ac ions wi h ma ke ac o s. Mo eo e , by highligh ing he
pa h dependence and s ickiness o de elopmen al ins i u ions in bo h coun ies, we
echo he a o emen ioned schola s’ indings conce ning he con e gence o Sino-Jap-
anese compe i ion and see ha ex e nal p essu es ac as accele a o s o domes ic
ins i u ional change, emphasizing a nuanced in e play be ween domes ic s uc u es
and ex e nal in luences.
Second, empi ically, his s udy acks he ins i u ional de elopmen wi hin Japan
and illus a es he connec ion be ween changes in in e na ional en i onmen s and
local esponses. We con ibu e o he exis ing discussion by aking a deep di e
in o he domes ic poli ical changes wi hin Japan, including legal amendmen s and
ins i u ional a angemen s, ha ha e been pi o al in shaping i s adap i e s a egies
420
K.Yan, J.Su
owa d China. These insigh s shed ligh on he o en-o e looked ole o domes ic
ac o s in enabling Japan o espond e ec i ely o ex e nal p essu es. By b idging
empi ical analysis and concep ual inno a ion, his s udy enhances ou unde s anding
o he wo-way in luence and adap i e s a egies be ween he wo na ions and hei
implica ions o domes ic policymaking en i onmen s. I highligh s ha o eign pol-
icy changes a e no impe ious o in luences om domes ic ac o s and ac o s and
he ou come o hose changes is deeply oo ed in local dynamics. Speci ically, how
s a es climbed he global alue chain has long-las ing e ec s on hei ou look on
compe i ion and global in eg a ion, as a s a e’s de elopmen inance app oaches a e
ou wa d exp essions o i s de elopmen al model.
The o igins andp ac ices o Chinese economic s a ec a
In he pos wa yea s, he Japanese na ional go e nmen explo ed ways o help i ms
pene a e o e seas ma ke s h ough o eign aid and build an in eg a ed indus ial
chain in Asia. The adi ional “Japanese model” had wo dis inc ea u es: ocusing
on ecip ocal exchange and being comme cially o ien ed (Chen 2021). The e o e,
Japan bene i ed om p o iding aid and in es men o imp o e hos coun ies’ in es -
men en i onmen by in es ing in ha dwa e and so wa e in as uc u e. In he p o-
cess, he Japanese go e nmen wo ked wi h business ac o s du ing he policymaking
and implemen a ion phases.
China ac i ely lea ned and localized de elopmen alis ideas and p ac ices om
Japan in he e o m e a (see Vogel 2011 o some de ailed discussion). In 1976,
Chinese leade s discussed ways o lea n om Japan including g ea e opening o
he ou side and use o o eign capi al o he pu pose o na ional eju ena ion (Gu
2009). In 1980, ini ia ed by Gu Mu, he lead Chinese ep esen a i e o he Sino-Jap-
anese Go e nmen Cabine Mee ing, and Sabu o Oki a, he o me Japanese Min-
is e o Fo eign A ai s, he Chinese and Japanese go e nmen s launched he Sino-
Japanese Fo um on Exchange o Economic Knowledge. This annual o um became
a salien pla o m on which he wo coun ies could “engage in in o mal dialogues o
p omo e mu ual unde s anding and p o ide impo an ad ice o decision-making”
(Gu 2009).
Japan’s indus ial policies, o ins ance, especially hose ca ied ou by he Min-
is y o In e na ional T ade and Indus y (MITI), had p o ound in luences on how
China ough o de elop i s own economy, especially conce ning how o suppo key
indus ies, di ec na ional champions in in e na ional ma ke s, and coo dina e s a e
esou ces. In ac , a o al o 148 books we e published be ween 1980 and 1993 on
Japanese expe iences in economic and echnological de elopmen and how China
can lea n and adap om hese lessons. Th ee books s and ou in pa icula : Japan’s
In es men and he Rise o Asia (by Yongming Fan), Japan’s T ansna ional Co -
po a ions (by Wenguang Li and Yan Zhang), and Japan’s Pos -Wa Opening o
he Ou side (by Linan Zhu). They summa ized Japan’s expe ience in opening i s
economy o he ou side, expo ela ions, and de elopmen inance and explo ed
how Japan ap ly esponded o challenges om hos coun ies and compe i o s. Mos
421
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion o …
impo an ly, hese wo ks we e la e in eg a ed in o ma e ials o cad e aining a he
Cen al Pa y School in he ea ly 1990s (Li 1995; Han 2013).
Among he key lessons we e how Japan linked in as uc u e p ojec s and low-
in e es loans o ad ancing domes ic comme cial in e es s. Fo example, Japan’s
in eg a ion o aid, ade, and in es men mo i a ed China o link o eign aid o he
in e es s o domes ic companies (Chen 2021). As Japan did in he 1970s, Chinese
con ac o s use loans om he Expo –Impo Bank o China (Chexim) o assis hos
coun ies in unding in as uc u e p ojec s. Mo eo e , China’s cu en emphasis on
in e na ional con ac ing mi o s Japan’s ea lie phases, which shi ed om expo -
d i en de elopmen inancing o o eign di ec in es men (FDI)–o ien ed inance in
he 1980s.
In 1995, he Na ional Con e ence on he Re o m o China’s Fo eign Aid Wo k
issued he “Reply on Issues Rela ed o he Re o m o China’s Fo eign Aid Wo k.”
The publica ion o he Reply ma ked he shi om p o iding economic assis ance
h ough iscal expendi u e o “gi unds” o in eg a ing aid wi h China’s domes-
ic de elopmen , such as p o iding loans ia banks and inancial ins i u ions o buy
Chinese ma e ials and equipmen o hi e Chinese echnicians. In la e ad ances in
China’s de elopmen inance, Chinese p ac ices began o esemble adi ional Jap-
anese business-o ien ed and exchange-based app oaches (Ka ada and Liao 2020;
Chen 2021). Lea ning h ough being a ecei e o Japanese o icial de elopmen
assis ance (ODA) and ela ed knowledge ia o icial and uno icial bila e al knowl-
edge exchange, Chinese de elopmen inance also aims o acili a e he economic
de elopmen o hos coun ies and, a he same ime, he global expansion o Chi-
nese i ms. China’s o eign aid and i s i ms’ o eign in es men became mu ually
ein o cing because o e seas ma ke s can be c ea ed ia o eign aid. To be speci ic,
as no ed by Ka ada and Liao (2020) and Chen (2021), Chinese o eign aid p ojec s
we e mainly in as uc u e de elopmen p ojec s ied o la ge Chinese i ms, simi-
la o he Japanese app oach. Simila o Japan, s a e-backed c edi s bene i Chinese
business ac o s, as China’s de elopmen inance p ojec s, usually dispe sed h ough
he China De elopmen Bank (CDB) and he Chexim, a e always ied o Chinese
businesses. These ac s a e emblema ic o he “in e na ional de elopmen in es -
men ” app oach ha was once p ac iced by Japan as he ole o s a e ins i u ions
and hei ac i e “guidance” emain simila (Saidi and Wol 2011; Chen 2021). Chen
(2021) ap ly desc ibed he pa allels be ween Sino-Japanese de elopmen inance as
“one be ween China’s p esen and Japan’s pas —speci ically be o e he 1980s.”
In implemen ing he “going global” o Chinese SOEs, China’s op leade s also
designed new ins i u ional a angemen s a e launching he BRI. A Leading G oup
o P omo ing he BRI and i s Execu i e O ice we e c ea ed. Bo h a e nes ed unde
he NDRC, e ec i ely making i one o he mos impo an economic bu eauc acies
in implemen ing na ional BRI p ojec s and suppo ing he expo o la ge in as uc-
u e p ojec s wi h an emphasis on “ op-le el design” (Yan 2021). While he Leading
G oup is comp ised o membe s om he Chinese Minis y o Fo eign A ai s and
he Minis y o Comme ce, hese minis ies would send ep esen a i es o s a ion
a he NDRC o enhance communica ion and coo dina ion (210331M). Mo eo e ,
because o he commission’s ole in mac o-managing he domes ic economy, i is
he main o ganiza ion coo dina ing Chinese SOEs. By “ e e se enginee ing” he
422
K.Yan, J.Su
domes ic economic s uc u e, he NDRC emains China’s “pilo agency,” ha ing he
au ho i y o coo dina e inside and ou side China (Yan 2021).
The commission’s ole in o e seeing China’s de elopmen inance was ins i u-
ionalized in 2014 wi h he publica ion o he Adminis a i e Measu es o App o -
ing and Reco d-Filing o O e seas In es men P ojec s. Acco ding o he Measu es,
he NDRC holds he powe o app o e in es men p ojec s o o e one billion USD,
and in es men s be ween 300 million USD and one billion USD mus be kep in he
commission’s ile. The S a e Council mus app o e, based on he commission’s ec-
ommenda ion, in es men s o e wo billion USD. Howe e , all in es men s in sensi-
i e indus ies mus be app o ed by he commission, no wi hs anding he amoun ,
such as elecom, c oss-bo de wa e esou ce de elopmen , and la ge-scale land
de elopmen sec o s. In an upda ed e sion o he a o emen ioned Measu es, he
commission can make app op ia e app o als by i sel —no longe equi ed o make
ecommenda ions o he S a e Council o la ge p ojec s. The in low and ou low
o capi al o hese p ojec s and BRI ones a e unde he pu iew o he commis-
sion’s Fo eign Capi al and O e seas In es men Depa men (FCOID), which is he
depa men esponsible o app o ing o e seas in es men p ojec s.I he p ojec is
o na ional impo ance, he depa men ’s decision is o wa ded o he S a e Admin-
is a ion o Fo eign Exchange and China’s policy banks o inancing and execu ion
(210401Z).
Agains his backd op, he commission handles wo sou ces o p ojec s: op-down
and bo om-up. Top-down p ojec s a e o en he esul o bila e al s a egic coop-
e a ion ini ia ed by China o hos coun ies’ op leade s. These p ojec s enjoy op
leade ship commi men and a e d i en by s a e planning and in e en ion.1 Bo om-
up p ojec s, howe e , a e usually ini ia ed by SOEs and p i a e en e p ises, which
epo hem o he S a e Council, he NDRC, o i s local o ices o app o al.2 As he
ga ekeepe o he S a e Council, he commission conduc s he necessa y p elimi-
na y esea ch and decides whe he he p oposed p ojec s all unde cen al o local
au ho i ies (210331M). The commission e alua es each p ojec ’s salience based on
i s economic e u ns, access o esou ces, bene i s o bila e al ela ions, and China’s
egional in luence, among o he conside a ions. I he commission inds a p ojec o
s a egic impo ance, i can p opose implemen ing i h ough business- o-business
(B2B) collabo a ion o go e nmen - o-go e nmen (G2G) coope a ion (210331M).
Despi e he na u e o la ge BRI p ojec s, he Chinese au ho i ies ely on he
NDRC o oubleshoo and coo dina e p ojec execu ion (Pal iel and Yan 2025).
1 The Jaka a-Bandung High-speed Railway P ojec was a op-down one launched due o high-le el
exchange. I began wi h bila e al exchanges be ween P esiden Joko Widodo and P esiden Xi Jinping
when hey me in 2014 and 2015. A bila e al amewo k ag eemen was signed be ween he Indonesian
Minis y o SOEs and he Chinese NDRC, which hen asked he CR o wo k wi h i s Planning Depa -
men , In e na ional Coope a ion Depa men , and he FCOID on a easibili y s udy and a po en ial bid
p oposal. A e winning he bid, he CR coo dina ed ac ion h ough i s in e na ional a m— he China
In e na ional Railway Co po a ion.
2 The Malaysian Eas Coas Rail Link began as a ypical bo om-up p ojec ini ia ed by he China Com-
munica ions Cons uc ion Company. I was pe cei ed ha he p ojec could deepen he i m’s p esence in
Malaysia and help i become a key playe in Malaysia’s in as uc u e de elopmen ma ke .
429
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion o …
inancial egula ions, Japan’s PQI p og am, hough de eloped join ly by he
MOFA, METI, and MLIT, saw an expansion o JICA’s esponsibili y in p omo -
ing de elopmen inance. JBIC would also wo k wi h JICA o in es in high- isk
p ojec s.
Japan’s expo o i s Shinkansen sys em o India is e lec i e o he powe
concen a ion used o ailway expo due o i s high capi al in es men and he
in ol emen o mul iple ac o s ac oss complex subsec o sys ems. I s de ea in he
Jaka a-Bandung HSR p ojec p omp ed a shi owa d he adop ion o bila e al
op leade ship nego ia ion; his can be e iden ly seen in he Mumbai-Ahmedabad
HSR p ojec , when Modi ag eed o adop Japan’s Shinkansen sys em wi hou any
compe i i e p ocess (Mao e al. 2024). In May 2013, Abe, as Japan’s op sales,
isi ed India and ag eed wi h Manmohan Singh, he hen-PM o India, o co-
inance a easibili y s udy o he Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR Co ido ; he wo
coun ies signed an MOU la e in Sep embe . To comple e he s udy, JICA, sup-
po ed by he Japanese go e nmen , in i ed Japan Railway (JR) Eas , Hi achi, and
Kawasaki, among o he ele an ac o s, o isi India o esea ch he applicabil-
i y o he Shinkansen echnology and ansi -o ien ed de elopmen (TOD), said
a manage om JR Eas (181117JRE). The Japanese go e nmen ’s decision o
in i e JR Eas , no JR Cen al, was because o he la e ’s in ol emen in expo -
ing he Shinkansen o he USA. Two yea s la e , in 2015, Abe isi ed India again
and pledged US$3.6 billion o suppo quali y in as uc u e p ojec s, including
he a o emen ioned HSR co ido .
The Japanese go e nmen , unde Abe, played he key coo dina ing ole o he
Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR Co ido . Fi s , hough Hi achi won he bid oge he wi h
o he Indian i ms, go e nmen coo dina ion wi h o he minis ies was appa en , as
Abe engaged in he signing o MOUs, go e nmen - o-go e nmen ag eemen s, and
packaged he p ojec as one o Japan’s o e seas de elopmen assis ance p og ams,
no ed by ou in e iewees om Japan (181115NM; 181120JK; 181121KK). Sec-
ond, while JICA p o ided he easibili y s udy, i s manda e was gi en by he Japa-
nese s a e, which would o ganize and p o ide loans o his pa icula p ojec . Thi d,
besides JICA, he In e na ional High-Speed Rail Associa ion (IHRA) also plays a
coo dina ing and pla o m-building ole among Japanese HSR ac o s. Wo king wi h
he Japanese go e nmen , explained by a manage o he associa ion, he IHRA
ocused on wo king wi h HSR ope a o s, ans e ing he know-how and sol ing
p ac ical challenges aced by echnology ecei e s (181122I). The associa ion e-
quen ly exchanges in o ma ion wi h MLIT o acili a e he smoo h expo and imple-
men a ion o Shinkansen ab oad.
Howe e , i mus be no ed ha he coo dina ion wo k done by he Japanese s a e
was no he same as ha o he Chinese. The majo eason is ha in as uc u e
expo is s ill done h ough p i a e i ms ins ead o SOEs. The e o e, he Chinese
s a e and he NDRC ha e mo e ools a hei disposal in e ms o in luencing, i no
coe cing, i ms o comply wi h hei in e na ional s a egies. Fo Japan, he in ol e-
men o p i a e i ms is no es ic ed o policy implemen a ion bu also o he ealm
o inancing (181121KK). In u n, sol ing collec i e ac ion p oblems in he p i a e
sec o is no always easily done h ough a simple concen a ion o powe as Japan’s
p i a e i ms ha e become mo e au onomous (181120K; Chen 2021).
430
K.Yan, J.Su
Conclusion
This pape a gued ha a ecip ocal di usion o economic s a ec a occu ed
be ween China and Japan. Riding on longe ends o powe cen aliza ion, ex e -
nal compe i ion om China se ed as an accele a o o he second Abe admin-
is a ion o u he consolida e he powe o he PM in decision-making. Such
powe consolida ion, acco ding o schola s, signals Japan’s e u n o i s oo s,
which ini ially in luenced China’s app oach o de elopmen inance and in a-
s uc u e expo . The occu ence o ecip ocal di usion sugges s ha (1) China’s
ise has signi ican implica ions on he in e na ional and domes ic beha io s o
i s egional neighbo s and (2) Abe’s cen aliza ion o powe was made possible
because o Japan’s adi ional app oach o in as uc u e inance and he coun y’s
ecen end in bols e ing i s PM’s au ho i y.
The s eng hening o he Kan ei empowe ed he PM’s abili y o wield au ho -
i y among minis ies. Unde his policy s uc u e, decision-making is made and
implemen ed in a op-down and poli ical demand-d i en manne , in a eas such as
in as uc u e expo , o eign policy, and na ional secu i y. Ul ima ely, he cen-
aliza ion o au ho i y was a means o s eamline decision-making, which in u n
allowed he P ime Minis e o exe g ea e in luence on how o ealize his ision
o Japan’s global compe i i eness.
The implica ion o ecip ocal di usion on he egional a chi ec u e o
Asia–Paci ic can be h ee old. Fi s , we a e wi nessing wha Kuik (2021) a gued
is a double inc ease in egional inancie s and demand o in as uc u e de elop-
men . F iendly compe i ion be ween China and Japan leads o mo e oppo uni-
ies o Asian coun ies. Wi h mo e op ions, hese s a es can ba gain o be e
loans and a comple e ans e o echnology—bo h help seconda y s a es escape
dependen de elopmen . Mo eo e , he e will be a di e si ica ion o lende s.
In es men may no jus be om he global no h, bu a s eng hening o sou h-
sou h ela ions (esp. in as uc u e in es men ). Such in eg a ion helps os e a
ib an economic zone, albei wi h complex ela ionships and c issc ossing ech-
nical s anda ds.
Second, howe e , mo e Chinese and Japanese money and echnology in he
egion may also ein o ce dependency. A deepening o hei espec i e g and
egional s a egies may spi al in o un es ained compe i ion ha could agmen
he egion. Mo eo e , compe i ion based on ideological and geopoli ical g ounds
can agmen he egion wi h mo e iend-sho ing and on-sho ing o supply
chains—leading o concu en inancial egimes, complex in e dependence, and a
la icewo k o in e sec ing ela ions. Unde such condi ions, seconda y s a es may
be o ced o bandwagon o wo k oge he on a mechanism o inco po a e bo h
egional powe s. Needless o say, he egion is mo ing owa d g ea unce ain y
and wi h lo s o mo ing pa s.
Finally, compe i ion is no he only lei mo i . Bo h go e nmen s and busi-
nesses a na ional and comme cial le els a e wo king on sus ainable o g een
de elopmen . While p omo ed and highligh ed by Japan, Chinese business g oups
ha e esponded by ecognizing and in eg a ing he necessa y c i e ia in o hei
431
Re hinking Sino-Japanese compe i ion: hedi usion o …
in e ac ions wi h Japanese coun e pa s. The CBD and JBIC also signed an MOU
in Oc obe 2018, and he wo banks ag eed o p o ide inancial suppo o p o-
jec s ha comply wi h global s anda ds (Keidan en 2018). To conclude, compe i-
ion o coope a ion, Asia emains one o he mos dynamic egions in he wo ld,
home o ib an ma ke oppo uni ies and a ious ypes, e en con adic o y, o
ma ke s uc u es and de elopmen al ou looks.
Acknowledgemen s We would like o hank Haojiu Liu o his esea ch suppo . A d a pape was p e-
sen ed a he 2023 ISA Annual Mee ing in Mon eal, Canada, sponso ed by he Associa ion o Chinese
Poli ical S udies and a he Fi s In e na ional Symposium on Asia-Eu ope De elopmen : “Asia in Flux:
Ne wo k Powe , New Regionalism and Global De elopmen ” in Hong Kong, sponso ed by he Cen e o
China S udies, he Chinese Uni e si y o Hong Kong. Special hanks o Muyang Chen, Phillip Lipscy,
and James Pa adise o hei incisi e commen s. The au ho s ake ull esponsibili y o any e o s in he
ex .
Funding Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
Da a a ailabili y No applicable.
Decla a ions
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Ka lYan1· JingSu1,2
* Jing Su
[email p o ec ed]
Ka l Yan
ka l[email p o ec ed]
1 School o Humani ies andSocial Science, The Chinese Uni e si y o Hong Kong, Shenzhen,
China
2 Clus e o Excellence SCRIPTS, F eie Uni e si a Be lin, Be lin, Ge many
