Hamme , Luisa e al.
Wo king Pape
The down all o Assad: Sy ian e ugees' se lemen
in en ions a e he unexpec ed egime change
IAB-Discussion Pape , No. 09/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ins i u e o Employmen Resea ch (IAB)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Hamme , Luisa e al. (2025) : The down all o Assad: Sy ian e ugees' se lemen
in en ions a e he unexpec ed egime change, IAB-Discussion Pape , No. 09/2025, Ins i u ü
A bei sma k - und Be u s o schung (IAB), Nü nbe g,
h ps://doi.o g/10.48720/IAB.DP.2509
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/324910
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.de
IAB‑DISCUSSION PAPER
A icles on labou ma ke issues
ISSN 2195‑2663
09|2025 The Down all o Assad: Sy ian Re ugees’
Se lemen In en ions a e he Unexpec ed
Regime Change
Luisa Hamme , Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyako a, Ka ia Gallegos‑To es, Lukas
Olb ich, The esa Koch, Simon Wagne
The Down all o Assad: Sy ian Re ugees’
Se lemen In en ions a e he Unexpec ed
Regime Change
Luisa Hamme (IAB), Kamal Kassam (IAB), Yuliya Kosyako a (IAB and O o‑F ied ich‑
Uni e si ä Bambe g), Ka ia Gallegos‑To es (IAB and ZEW), Lukas Olb ich (IAB), The esa
Koch (IAB) and Simon Wagne (IAB)
Mi de Reihe „IAB‑Discussion Pape “ will das Fo schungsins i u de Bundesagen u ü
A bei den Dialog mi de ex e nen Wissenscha in ensi ie en. Du ch die asche Ve b ei ung
on Fo schungse gebnissen übe das In e ne soll noch o D ucklegung K i ik ange eg
und Quali ä gesiche we den.
The “IAB‑Discussion Pape ” is published by he esea ch ins i u e o he Ge man Fede al
Employmen Agency in o de o in ensi y he dialogue wi h he scien i ic communi y. The
p omp publica ion o he la es esea ch esul s ia he in e ne in ends o s imula e
c i icism and o ensu e esea ch quali y a an ea ly s age be o e p in ing.
Con en s
1 In oduc ion............................................................................... 6
2 Me hod .................................................................................... 8
2.1 Da a ....................................................................................... 8
2.2 Empi ical S a egy ....................................................................... 9
2.2.1 In es iga ing he iden i ying assump ions.................................. 10
2.3 Desc ip i e s a is ics o Sy ians and o con ol g oups ......................... 12
3 Resul s .................................................................................. 12
3.1 Changes in Se lemen In en ions o Sy ians in Ge many ollowing Assad’s
Fall ........................................................................................ 12
3.2 DiD E idence on Re ugees’ Responses o Assad’s Fall ............................ 12
3.3 Po en ial Mechanisms .................................................................. 16
3.4 Di e en ial Responses Ac oss Legal, Economic, and Social Dimensions ....... 16
3.5 Robus ness analyses ................................................................... 17
4 Conclusion .............................................................................. 19
Re e ences...................................................................................... 22
Appendix .................................................................................... 24
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 3
Abs ac
On Decembe 8, 2024, he sudden collapse o Basha al‑Assad’s egime, ab up ly changed
Sy ia’s poli ical landscape and eshaped he e u n p ospec s o millions o Sy ians li ing
ab oad. We exploi his unan icipa ed egime change as a na u al expe imen o es ima e
he causal impac o homeland de elopmen s on e ugees’ se lemen and e u n
in en ions. D awing on no el su ey da a om Ge many, launched jus days be o e Assad’s
all, we ind ha he egime collapse signi ican ly a ec ed he exp essed se lemen
in en ions o Sy ians in Ge many. Responden s in e iewed a e wa d we e mo e likely o
exp ess empo a y se lemen in en ions, mo e likely o epo emig a ion conside a ions,
and mo e likely o exp ess unce ain y abou hei u u e in Ge many. Howe e , we ind no
e ec on conc e e sho ‑ e m emig a ion plans, sugges ing ha inc eased e u n aspi a ions
e lec o wa d‑looking in en ions a he han immedia e beha io al change. Fu he
analyses shows ha legal secu i y in Ge many and weake social o emo ional in eg a ion
co ela e wi h a s onge p e e ence o empo a y s ay.
Zusammen assung
Am 8. Dezembe 2024 e ände e de plö zliche Zusammenb uch des Regimes on Basha
al‑Assad die poli ische Landscha Sy iens und die Rückkeh aussich en ü Millionen on im
Ausland lebenden Sy e n ab up . Wi nu zen diesen une wa e en Regimewechsel als
na ü liches Expe imen , um die kausalen Auswi kungen de En wicklungen im Heima land
au die Ansiedlungs‑ und Rückkeh absich en on Flüch lingen zu schä zen. Au de
G undlage neua ige Um ageda en aus Deu schland, die nu wenige Tage o dem S u z
Assads e hoben wu den, s ellen wi es , dass de Zusammenb uch des Regimes die
Ansiedlungsabsich en de Sy e in Deu schland e heblich beein luss e. Be ag e, die danach
be ag wu den, äuße en ehe empo ä e Niede lassungsabsich en, gaben ehe an,
Auswande ungsübe legungen zu haben, und äuße en ehe Unsiche hei übe ih e Zukun
in Deu schland. Wi inden jedoch keine Auswi kungen au konk e e ku z is ige
Auswande ungspläne, was da au hindeu e , dass die e höh en Rückkeh wünsche ehe
zukun so ien ie e Absich en als unmi elba e Ve hal ensände ungen wide spiegeln.
Wei e e Analysen zeigen, dass Rech ssiche hei in Deu schland und eine schwäche e soziale
ode emo ionale In eg a ion mi eine s ä ke en P ä e enz ü einen o übe gehenden
Au en hal ko elie en.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 4
JEL
F22, J15, D74
Keywo ds
Mig a ion, Se lemen In en ions, Con lic , Sy ia, Ge many, In e na ional Mobili y Panel o
Mig an s in Ge many (IMPa)
Acknowledgmen s
We hank pa icipan s a he IAB b ownbag semina o aluable commen s.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 5
1 In oduc ion
Unexpec edly, Basha al‑Assad’s egime collapsed on Decembe 8, 2024, b inging an end, a
leas p o isionally, o decades o au ho i a ian ule, con lic , and widesp ead su e ing
among he Sy ian popula ion. In he immedia e a e ma h, se e al Eu opean coun ies –
including Ge many, Aus ia, F ance, G eece, and he Uni ed Kingdom – pos poned he
p ocessing o asylum applica ions om Sy ian na ionals (e.g., LeMonde/AFP, 2024) and
began econside ing policies which acili a e olun a y e u n. Howe e , despi e his
poli ical u ning poin , condi ions in Sy ia emain deeply insecu e. A cen al and un esol ed
ques ion is whe he he app oxima ely 6.2 million Sy ian e ugees li ing ab oad (UNHCR,
2025) a e now willing o e u n o hei coun y o o igin. This s udy o e s i s empi ical
insigh s in o his ques ion by le e aging newly collec ed, la ge‑scale su ey da a, he
In e na ional Mobili y Panel o Mig an s in Ge many ( ) (Kosyako a e al., 2025) and
exploi ing he na u al expe imen dis illed om he unexpec ed iming o Assad’s all, which
occu ed i e days a e he s a o he ieldwo k. This exogenous shock enables us o
es ima e he causal e ec o a sudden and signi ican change in he homeland’s poli ical
si ua ion on he e u n in en ions o Sy ian mig an s esiding in Ge many.
IMPa
This ques ion canno be answe ed wi hou unde s anding he cu en si ua ion in Sy ia.
Al hough Assad’s depa u e ended an e a o au ho i a ianism and wa , i did no b ing
immedia e peace o s abili y. The wa le deep sca s: an es ima ed 500,000 people we e
killed (Dahe , 2024), mo e han 13 million had been displaced – mo e han hal in e nally,
abou 5 million in neighbo ing coun ies, o e 1 million in Eu ope, and especially in
Ge many which hos s he la ges numbe o Sy ians ou side o he Middle Eas (UNHCR,
2025). By 2024, 15.3 million Sy ians equi ed humani a ian aid. Basic needs emained
unme – wi h 90 pe cen o he popula ion li ing in po e y, 13.6 million lacking access o
clean wa e and sani a ion, and ood p ices o e 100 imes highe han in 2013 (OCHA,
2025). The economy sh ank by 54 pe cen om 2010 o 2021, and public spending emained
de as a ed ac oss sec o s including heal h, educa ion, and in as uc u e (Wo ld Bank,
2024),
The all o Assad has u he complica ed he poli ical landscape. The ebel g oup Hay’a
Tah i al‑Sham (HTS) announced a ansi ional go e nmen and decla ed a gene al amnes y.
Howe e , HTS emains designa ed as a e o is o ganiza ion by he Uni ed Na ions (UN),
Eu opean Union (EU), Uni ed S a es (US), and o he coun ies (Na ional Coun e e o ism
Cen e , 2022). Many eligious and e hnic mino i ies now ea enewed pe secu ion,
pa icula ly in egions such as Homs (F ance24, 2025), coas al ci ies (Bachega/Lapham,
2025), and Ku dish‑inhabi ed a eas in no heas Sy ia (Gol, 2025). The UN Special En oy o
Sy ia has emphasized ha ” he con lic has no ended ye ” (Pede sen, 2024).
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 6
In con as , Ge many has become a cen al des ina ion and hos coun y o Sy ian e ugees
since he ou b eak o he ci il wa in 2011 (B ücke /Kosyako a/Vallizadeh, 2020). Nea ly 1
million Sy ians eside in Ge many oday, including o e 80,000 wi h pe manen esidence
s a us and 165,000 who ha e acqui ed ci izenship since 2014 (Des a is, 2025a,b) . By 2023,
mo e han 287,000 Sy ian na ionals we e employed, wi h 82 pe cen con ibu ing o social
insu ance. Economic and sociocul u al in eg a ion has p og essed no ably wi h longe
du a ion o s ay (Kanas/Kosyako a, 2023; B ücke e al., 2024). Sy ian doc o s now
ep esen he la ges o eign medical g oup in Ge many, wi h 5,758 licensed p ac i ione s
(B ücke e al., 2024). These igu es e lec bo h he scale o Sy ian displacemen and he
deg ee o in eg a ion many e ugees ha e achie ed.
To unde s and how such popula ions espond o homeland de elopmen s, we d aw on
heo e ical models o e u n mig a ion ha emphasize bo h push and pull ac o s (e.g.,
Bo jas, 1987), also speci ically o he case o e ugees (Onde /Sayed, 2020). Push ac o s
e e o condi ions in he hos coun y (e.g., social isola ion, legal insecu i y, poo job
p ospec s), while pull ac o s ela e o he si ua ion in he coun y o o igin. Al ababah e al.
(2023), s udying Sy ian e ugees in Lebanon, iden i y ou key de e minan s o e u n: (1)
indi idual ci cums ances in he hos coun y, (2) de elopmen s in he coun y o o igin, (3)
ealloca ion cos s, and (4) he a ailabili y o c edible in o ma ion abou he isks and
oppo uni ies ega ding po en ial e u n. Thei indings sugges ha homeland condi ions
a e he s onges p edic o s o e u n in en ions—and only once hese a e pe cei ed as
secu e do hos ‑coun y push ac o s (e.g., economic si ua ion) begin o ma e . We ex end
his li e a u e by s udying how a majo poli ical shock in he coun y o o igin – he sudden
collapse o Assad’s egime – shapes e u n p e e ences. Ou amewo k also d aws on
Cassa ino’s concep ual dis inc ion be ween he willingness and he eadiness o e u n
(Cassa ino, 2013). While willingness cap u es subjec i e aspi a ions, eadiness e lec s he
capaci y and p epa edness o ac (Cassa ino, 2013). In line wi h his dis inc ion, we examine
h ee dimensions o mig a ion decision‑making: gene al se lemen p e e ences in
Ge many, emig a ion conside a ions, and conc e e sho ‑ e m mig a ion plans.
Ou empi ical se ing o e s a a e na u al expe imen . The i s wa e o he In e na ional
Mobili y Panel o Mig an s in Ge many (IMPa) began ieldwo k on Decembe 3, 2024 – jus
i e days be o e Assad’s all. This iming enables us o compa e he e u n in en ions o
Sy ian e ugees su eyed be o e and a e he e en . We use a Di e ence‑in‑Di e ences (DiD)
app oach o iden i y he causal e ec o Assad’s all, d awing on a con ol g oup o mig an s
om coun ies expe iencing ongoing con lic and low e u n easibili y: Somalia, I aq,
A ghanis an, and Uk aine. To ensu e in e nal alidi y, we es ic ou analysis o
esponden s in e iewed be ween Decembe 3 and 20, 2024 – a pe iod du ing which 85
pe cen o he in e iews we e comple ed.1 This es ic ion minimizes he isk o
con amina ion by longe ‑ e m policy changes o delayed in o ma ion di usion.
We p esen obus ness checks using he ull sample pe iod, ex ending un il he end o he su ey on Ap il
15 h, 2025.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025
1
7
Ou s udy makes se e al impo an con ibu ions. Fi s , we p o ide causal e idence on how
sudden poli ical de elopmen s in he coun y o o igin a ec e ugees’ beha io in he hos
coun y. Second, we dis inguish be ween long‑ e m se lemen in en ions and sho ‑ e m
emig a ion plans, cap u ing di e en empo al dimensions o e u n‑ ela ed decision
making. Thi d, we es he po en ial channels o he egime change e ec on e ugees’
se lemen in en ions such as changes in he eeling o belonging o Sy ia o o he
hos ‑coun y, disc imina ion expe iences, and heal h s a us. Fou h, we examine
he e ogeneous ea men e ec s in he push‑ and pull ac o amewo k by legal s a us,
economic si ua ion, and social in eg a ion. These analyses help disen angle he oles o
hos ‑ and o igin‑coun y ac o s in shaping mig a ion decisions. Toge he , ou indings
p o ide new insigh s in o he beha io al esponses o e ugees o homeland poli ical
change, and o e implica ions o policy deba es abou e u n, ein eg a ion, and
hos ‑coun y obliga ions in he wake o egime ansi ions.
2 Me hod
2.1 Da a
We use he i s wa e o he In e na ional Mobili y Panel o Mig an s in Ge many (IMPa)
(Kosyako a e al., 2025) a la ge‑scale su ey conduc ed by he Ins i u e o Employmen
Resea ch (IAB). The panel a ge s immig an s cu en ly esiding in Ge many, wi h a
pa icula ocus on e u n and onwa d mig a ion dynamics. The su ey is conduc ed online
o enable u u e ollow‑ups, e en a e pa icipan s ha e al eady le Ge many. The
ques ionnai e was o e ed in 19 di e en languages o acili a e he unde s anding o he
esponden s.2 Pa icipa ion was incen i ized by a ouche o he alue o 5 €. The o e all
esponse a e amoun s o 5.9 pe cen . In i s i s wa e, app oxima ely 40,000 pa icipan s
comple ed he su ey. Fieldwo k began on Decembe 2, 2024, wi h he i s esponses
eco ded on Decembe 3— i e days be o e he unexpec ed collapse o he Assad egime.
The majo i y o in e iews (85 pe cen ) we e comple ed by Decembe 20, 2024.
Ou main ou comes measu e esponden s’ se lemen and mig a ion in en ions. The
p ima y a iable cap u es pe manen s ay in en ions in Ge many, based on he ques ion:
“Do you wan o s ay in Ge many o e e ?” wi h esponse op ions: “Yes,” “No,” and “Don’
2 These languages a e: Ge man, English, Polish, Spanish, I alian, F ench, Po uguese, Hunga ian, Bulga ian,
Czech, G eek, Da i, A abic, Russian, Uk ainian, C oa ian, Romanian, Se bian, Tu kish.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 8
(pos × Sy ia = 1.221; p‑ al = 0.212; 95% CI, ‑0.695 o 3.138), no on plans o e u n o he
coun y o o igin (pos × Sy ia = 0.723; p‑ al = 0.239; 95% CI, ‑0.481 o 1.926) o o mo e o a
hi d coun y (pos × Sy ia = 0.821; p‑ al = 0.254; 95% CI, ‑0.591 o 2.233). S ill, poin
es ima es sugges a weak posi i e end. The a e ages con i m ha only a small numbe o
Sy ians and o he con ol g oup epo ed conc e e plans o lea e Ge many wi hin he nex
12 mon hs.
To link hese esul s wi h ou indings on shi s in se lemen in en ions and emig a ion
conside a ions, i appea s ha while Assad’s all p omp ed signi ican changes in long‑ e m
and abs ac mig a ion p e e ences, i did no immedia ely lead o changes in e ugees’
conc e e mig a ion plans.
Table 2: Conc e e emig a ion plans o he nex 12 mon hs
Emig a ion plans Re u n plans Onwa d mig a ion
plans
Sy ia s. con lic /wa coun ies ‑0.889 ‑0.682+ ‑0.521
(0.703) (0.399) (0.507)
Pos 0.236 0.172 0.069
(0.472) (0.331) (0.347)
Pos × Sy ia 1.221 0.723 0.821
(0.977) (0.614) (0.720)
Cons an 2.083*** 0.983*** 1.122***
(0.377) (0.262) (0.279)
Obse a ions 5,257 5,195 5,201
P e‑ ea men mean (SD)
Sy ia 2.17 0.90 1.19
(14.57) (9.44) (10.87)
Con lic / wa coun ies 2.23 1.10 1.17
(14.57) (9.44) (10.87)
No es: The dummy a iable Emig a ion plans equals 1 i he esponden epo ed ha ing
conc e e plans o emig a e om Ge many wi hin he nex 12 mon hs, and 0 o he wise.
Re u n plans indica es whe he he esponden plans o e u n o hei coun y o o igin
wi hin he nex 12 mon hs, as opposed o ha ing no emig a ion plans. Onwa d mig a ion
plans cap u es whe he he esponden in ends o mo e o a hi d coun y wi hin he nex
12 mon hs, as opposed o ha ing no emig a ion plans. The dummy a iable pos equals 1
om Decembe 8, 2024 onwa ds (Assad’s all), he a iable Sy ia equals 1 i he
esponden ’s coun y o o igin is Sy ia, o 0 i i belongs o he con ol g oup. The
in e ac ion e m Pos × Sy ia measu es he e ec o being Sy ian and being su eyed in he
Pos Assad e a. The eg essions include obse a ions collec ed be ween Decembe 3‑20,
2024. The con ol g oup Con lic /wa coun ies consis s o pe sons o igina ing om
A ghanis an, I aq, Somalia, Uk aine. Robus s anda d e o s a e epo ed in pa en heses.
The p e‑ ea men means measu e he a e age be o e Assad’s all. The s anda d de ia ion
is shown in pa en heses below. + p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.01.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 15
3.3 Po en ial Mechanisms
Since we ound signi ican e ec s o he egime change in Sy ia on Sy ians’ se lemen
in en ions and emig a ion conside a ions, we nex examine po en ial mechanisms behind
his beha io al esponse. Speci ically, we assess whe he and how he poli ical shi in Sy ia
in luenced o he a i udes and condi ions among Sy ians in Ge many.
Es ima es om Supplemen a y Table A.3 sugges ha ollowing Assad’s all, Sy ian
esponden s exp essed a highe emo ional a achmen o hei home coun y compa ed o
he con ol g oup (Column 1, Panel A, Table A.3). This e ec may e lec a enewed
connec ion o Sy ia, likely d i en by he collapse o he egime ha had p e iously o ced
hem o lee.
In pa allel, he Ge man poli ical deba e quickly pi o ed owa d ques ions o e u n, wi h
p ominen media ou le s epo ing calls o ”send Sy ians back o Sy ia” (e.g. Tagesschau,
2024). This aised he ques ion o whe he pe cep ions o Ge many had also changed.
Howe e , Column 2 in Panel A o Table A.3 shows no e idence o a decline in Sy ians’
emo ional a achmen o Ge many. Mo eo e , we do no obse e an inc ease in pe cei ed
expe iences o un ai ea men in public (Panel B o Table A.3) – on he con a y, such
pe cep ions sligh ly dec eased.
Finally, we ind a modes decline in he sha e o Sy ians epo ing plans o euni e wi h
amily membe s in Ge many (Column 4 in Panel A o Table A.3). Taken oge he wi h he
obse ed inc eases in emig a ion conside a ions and dec eases in pe manen se lemen
in en ions in Ge many, his may sugges a sub le eo ien a ion o u u e euni ica ion plans
away om Ge many and owa d he coun y o o igin. Fo o he ou comes, such as
emi ances, li e o job sa is ac ion, social isola ion, pe cei ed welcome, ime spen wi h
Ge mans o co‑e hnics, and b oade expe iences o disc imina ion—we ind no signi ican
changes (see Table A.3).
3.4 Di e en ial Responses Ac oss Legal, Economic, and Social
Dimensions
To be e unde s and which ac o s may “push” Sy ians ou o Ge many, we d aw on he
push‑and‑pull amewo k and examine whe he di e en subg oups esponded di e en ly
o he poli ical shock. Speci ically, we e‑es ima e ou DiD models including a iple
in e ac ion o being su eyed a e Assad’s all, being o Sy ian o igin and subg oup
cha ac e is ics. Figu e 2 plo s he coe icien s o hese iple in e ac ion e ms, cap u ing
di e en ial e ec s ac oss g oups.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 16
We classi y hos ‑coun y push ac o s in ou domains: legal secu i y (secu e esidence
s a us, i.e., possession o Ge man o EU ci izenship o a pe manen esidence pe mi ),
economic in eg a ion (employmen , unemploymen , and eceip o s a e wel a e bene i s),
and social in eg a ion (no emo ional a achmen o Ge many, no emo ional a achmen o
local place o li ing, low li e sa is ac ion and pe cei ed social isola ion). The main pull
ac o —Sy ia’s changed secu i y ou look a e Assad’s all—is cap u ed by he in e ac ion
e m pos × Sy ia (no included in he igu e).9
Legal secu i y appea s o unc ion as a s ong posi i e push ac o . Sy ians wi h secu e
esidence s a us in Ge many — such as ci izenship o a pe manen esidence pe mi — we e
mo e likely o exp ess empo a y s ay in en ions and epo emig a ion conside a ions, bu
also indica e g ea e unce ain y abou hei u u e se lemen . This may e lec lowe
pe cei ed ba ie s o ealloca ion, as indi iduals wi h secu e legal s a us ypically e ain he
igh o e u n o Ge many i needed. In con as , asylum seeke s o en ace signi ican legal
and logis ical obs acles ha es ic mobili y, pa icula ly in ela ion o e u n o Sy ia.
Economic in eg a ion, as measu ed by employmen and unemploymen s a us10, does no
signi ican ly in luence mig a ion in en ions. Howe e , eliance on s a e wel a e bene i s is
associa ed wi h a signi ican ly lowe likelihood o exp essing empo a y s ay in en ions.
This may indica e ha he inancial cos s o eloca ing—such as a el and ein eg a ion
expenses—a e p ohibi i ely high o indi iduals dependen on s a e suppo . Al e na i ely,
i may e lec he limi ed ein eg a ion oppo uni ies a ailable in Sy ia. A he same ime,
eliance on wel a e bene i s is likely closely ied o legal s a us, as ecipien s a e ypically
equi ed o emain in Ge many and demons a e e o s o in eg a e in o he labo
ma ke .
A low le el o social in eg a ion appea s o be an impo an push ac o . Sy ians who epo
lowe emo ional a achmen o he hos coun y and hei local communi ies, and who
display lowe li e sa is ac ion a e signi ican ly mo e likely o exp ess empo a y s ay
in en ions.
3.5 Robus ness analyses
To assess he obus ness o ou indings, we conduc se e al addi ional analyses.
Panels A and B in Supplemen a y Table A.1 es wo al e na i e con ol g oups: (1)
asylum‑seeking popula ions wi h s ong p ospec s o emaining in Ge many du ing he
9 The o e all e ec on empo a y se lemen in en ions is 4.31, on unce ain se lemen in en ions 7.58 and
on emig a ion conside a ions 4.01
10 Employmen is de ined as ha ing a paid job. Unemploymen is de ined as being egis e ed as unemployed. A
la ge ac ion o people wi hou jobs a e no egis e ed as unemployed.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 17
Figu e 2: Coe icien plo s o he p obabili y o empo a y and unce ain se lemen in en ions in
Ge many, and emig a ion conside a ions, by g oup
Tempo a y s ay in en ions
Secu e s a us = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Employed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Unemployed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Wel a e suppo = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed GER = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed local place = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No sa is ied wi h li e = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Social isola ion = 1 # pos # Sy ia
-32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Unce ain se lemen in en ions
Secu e s a us = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Employed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Unemployed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Wel a e suppo = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed GER = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed local place = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No sa is ied wi h li e = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Social isola ion = 1 # pos # Sy ia
-32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Emig a ion conside a ions
Secu e s a us = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Employed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Unemployed = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Wel a e suppo = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed GER = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No Connec ed local place = 1 # pos # Sy ia
No sa is ied wi h li e = 1 # pos # Sy ia
Social isola ion = 1 # pos # Sy ia
-32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
No es: The g aphs plo he coe icien s o he iple in e ac ion g oup*Sy ia*pos , ha is he
di e en ial ea men e ec o he speci ic g oup. The ou come a iables a e he in en ion no o
s ay o e e in Ge many, he unce ain y abou his choice, and emig a ion aspi a ions o med
wi hin he las 12 mon hs. Secu e s a us = Ge man / EU ci izen / pe manen esidence pe mi ,
Employed = ha ing a paid job, Unemployed = being egis e ed as unemployed, Wel a e suppo
indica es he ecep ion o public wel a e suppo . The measu es o social in eg a ion indica e
subjec i e pe cep ions. The plo s include 95% con idence in e als, so ha each coe icien o
which he con idence in e al does no exceed he e ical line a 0% is s a is ically signi ican om
0 a he 5% le el.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 18
4 Conclusion
2015–2016 e ugee peak—namely I aqis, I anians, E i eans, and Somalis
(Kosyako a/B enzel, 2020), and (2) asylum seeke s om coun ies wi h a good p ospec o
emaining in Ge many in 2022–2024, such as A ghanis an, E i ea, and Somalia (BAMF,
2022). The es ima ed e ec s on empo a y s ay in en ions emain obus and e en inc ease
in size. Howe e , di e ences in unce ain y and emig a ion conside a ions compa ed o
hese g oups a e no longe s a is ically signi ican .
Panel C in Table A.1 shows ha esul s a e s able when including obse a ions h ough
Ap il 15, 2025. The coe icien s emain quali a i ely unchanged. Panel D es ic s he
obse a ional pe iod o he symme ic window o 5 days be o e and a e he egime
collapse, i.e., om Decembe 3 ‑ 12, 2024. While he poin es ima es go in he same
di ec ion as in ou main esul s, due o he smalle sample, he s anda d e o s a e e y
la ge such ha hey a e no s a is ically signi ican .
In Panel E, we in oduce a ich se o indi idual‑le el con ounde s in o he DiD models,
including gende , anche o su ey in i a ion, amily loca ion, and possession o a
uni e si y deg ee.11 The esul s emain obus , al hough he e ec on emig a ion
conside a ions becomes s a is ically insigni ican . In Sec ion 2me hod we discuss possible
selec ion in o pa icipa ion in he su ey in mo e de ail.
As a complemen a y check, we es ima e a eg ession discon inui y (RD) design ocusing on
Sy ian esponden s only using Decembe 8 as he cu ‑o da e.12 Table A.2 shows ha RD
es ima es gene ally align in di ec ion wi h ou DiD esul s bu lack s a is ical signi icance,
likely due o he local na u e o RD and limi ed sample size nea he h eshold.
This s udy p o ides no el causal e idence on how sudden geopoli ical de elopmen s in
e ugees’ coun ies o o igin—speci ically, he collapse o he Assad egime in Sy ia—can
shape immig an s’ se lemen and e u n in en ions. Le e aging he unique iming o he
IMPa su ey in Ge many, we show ha his poli ical u ning poin led o a signi ican and
immedia e educ ion in he sha e o Sy ians exp essing a desi e o s ay pe manen ly in
11 These co a ia es we e selec ed based on (ma ginally) signi ican p e‑pos imbalances wi hin he g oup o
Sy ians (see Table A.4).
12 The RD app oach uses only Sy ians o es o a discon inuous b eak a he cu ‑o da e o Decembe 8, 2024.
The app oach uses ew obse a ions, which a e de e mined by he op imal bandwid h using he d obus
command. The app oach can apply di e en ends (no end, linea , o highe o de polynomials) be o e
and a e he cu ‑o which we epo in he Table A.2.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 19
Ge many. This educ ion in pe manen se lemen in en ions was accompanied by an
inc ease in bo h unce ain y and emig a ion conside a ions.
When examining po en ial unde lying mechanisms, we ind ha while emo ional
a achmen o Ge many emained la gely unchanged, Sy ian esponden s epo ed a
signi ican inc ease in a achmen o hei home coun y ollowing Assad’s all. This
sugges s ha he egime collapse eac i a ed a symbolic o a ec i e connec ion o Sy ia,
a he han e lec ing disillusionmen wi h li e in Ge many. This in e p e a ion esona es
wi h heo e ical pe spec i es ha emphasize he ole o iden i y, belonging, and pe cei ed
poli ical oppo uni y in shaping e u n aspi a ions (Ca ling/Pe e sen, 2014).
Ou he e ogenei y analysis u he e ines his pic u e and highligh s key hos ‑coun y
condi ions ha shape esponses o he egime change. Legal secu i y—such as holding
pe manen esidency o ci izenship—eme ges as a s ong push ac o , likely because i
lowe s he pe cei ed isks o e u n since hese mig an s s ill possess he igh o e u n o
Ge many any ime. In con as , eliance on wel a e bene i s is associa ed wi h lowe
mobili y in en ions, possibly due o ins i u ional obliga ions o limi ed means. Social
in eg a ion ac o s, such as eeling welcome, emo ionally connec ed, and sa is ied wi h li e
in Ge many, a e linked o s onge se lemen in en ions, while social isola ion inc eases
openness o emig a ion. These esul s con i m ha social embeddedness can se e as a
powe ul ancho agains mobili y (De Haas/Fokkema, 2011).
Despi e he ma ked shi s in se lemen in en ions and emig a ion conside a ions, hese
changes we e no mi o ed in esponden s’ sho ‑ e m emig a ion plans: only abou one
pe cen o Sy ians epo ed conc e e plans o emig a e in he ollowing yea . This appa en
disc epancy poin s o a common gap be ween willingness and eadiness o e u n
(Cassa ino, 2013), likely shaped by logis ical, legal, and emo ional cons ain s, pa icula ly
in pos ‑con lic o unce ain e u n scena ios (Mülle ‑Funk/F ansen, 2023).
Ou indings mus be in e p e ed in ligh o some limi a ions. Fi s , ou da a cap u e
immedia e a i udinal shi s ollowing a singula poli ical e en : longe ‑ e m panel da a
would be needed o assess he pe sis ence o hese e ec s and hei connec ion o ac ual
beha io . Second, al hough ou iden i ica ion s a egy o e s s ong in e nal alidi y, he
gene alizabili y o esul s may be limi ed o Sy ian e ugees in Ge many. Thi d, he
sequencing o ques ions and he sel ‑selec ion o in e iew iming13 may ha e in luenced
he way esponden s epo ed hei in en ions and conside a ions.
In conclusion, he s udy demons a es ha poli ical de elopmen s in o igin coun ies can
ha e apid and measu able e ec s on e ugees’ aspi a ions—e en among hose who appea
13 We do show in he me hods sec ion ha he compa ison o cha ac e is ics be o e and a e Assad’s all
doesn’ poin owa ds majo selec ion issues.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 20
well‑in eg a ed in hei hos socie y. Howe e , i also shows ha policymake s should no
in e p e such shi s as signals o eadiness o e u n. Re u n emains a complex p ocess
shaped by emo ional ies, legal eali ies, and s uc u al cons ain s. Policy esponses o
egime change in coun ies o o igin mus he e o e a oid simplis ic assump ions abou
olun a y e u n and ecognize he endu ing weigh o in eg a ion expe iences in he hos
coun y.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 21
Re e ences
Al ababah, Ala; Mas e son, Daniel; Casalis, Ma ine; Hanga ne , Dominik; Weins ein, Je emy
(2023): The dynamics o e ugee e u n: Sy ian e ugees and hei mig a ion in en ions. In:
B i ish Jou nal o Poli ical Science, Vol. 53, No. 4, p. 1108–1131.
Bachega, Hugo; Lapham, Jake (2025): Wo s iolence in Sy ia since Assad all as dozens
killed in clashes. Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
BAMF (2022): Anpassung de He kun slände „mi gu e Bleibepe spek i e“. Accessed:
2025‑05‑05.
Bo jas, Geo ge J (1987): Sel ‑selec ion and he ea nings o immig an s: eply. In: The
Ame ican Economic Re iew, Vol. 60, No. 1, p. 305–308.
B ücke ; Ehab, Maye; Haup mann, And eas; Jaschke, Philipp; Koch, The esa; Kosyako a,
Yuliya (2024): Sy iSCHE ARBEITSKRäFTE IN DEUTSCHLAND. In: Ak uelle Da en und
Indika o en.
B ücke , He be ; Kosyako a, Yuliya; Vallizadeh, Ehsan (2020): Has he e been a “ e ugee
c isis”? In: Soziale Wel , Vol. 71, No. H. 1/2, p. 24–53.
Ca ling, Jø gen; Pe e sen, Silje Va ne (2014): Re u n mig a ion in en ions in he
in eg a ion– ansna ionalism ma ix. In: In e na ional Mig a ion, Vol. 52, No. 6, p. 13–30.
Cassa ino, Jean‑Pie e (2013): Theo ising e u n mig a ion: he concep ual app oach o
e u n mig an s e isi ed. In: REMHU: Re is a In e disciplina da Mobilidade Humana,
Vol. 21, p. 21–54.
Cunningham, Sco (2021): Causal in e ence: The mix ape. Yale uni e si y p ess.
Dahe , Joseph (2024): THE WAR ECONOMY IN Sy ia: CONSOLIDATING THE PRE‑2011
DYNAMICS OF Sy IA’S POLITICAL ECONOMY. In: Spoils o Wa in he A ab Eas :
Recondi ioning Socie y and Poli y in Con lic , p. 139.
De Haas, Hein; Fokkema, Tineke (2011): The e ec s o in eg a ion and ansna ional ies on
in e na ional e u n mig a ion in en ions. In: Demog aphic esea ch, Vol. 25, p. 755–782.
Des a is (2025a): Fo eign popula ion by place o bi h and selec ed ci izenships. Accessed:
2025‑03‑19.
Des a is (2025b): Na u alisa ion by o me ci izenship. Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
F ance24 (2025): Fea g ips Alawi es in Sy ia’s Homs as Assad ’ emnan s’ a ge ed. Accessed:
2025‑03‑19.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 22
F ed iksson, Ande s; Oli ei a, Gus a o Magalhães de (2019): Impac e alua ion using
Di e ence‑in‑Di e ences. In: RAUSP Managemen Jou nal, Vol. 54, p. 519–532.
Gol, Jiya (2025): ’We a e s ill a wa ’: Sy ia’s Ku ds ba le Tu key mon hs a e Assad’s all.
Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
Kanas, Agnieszka; Kosyako a, Yuliya (2023): G ea e local supply o language cou ses
imp o es e ugees’ labo ma ke in eg a ion. In: Eu opean Socie ies, Vol. 25, No. 1, p. 1–36.
Kosyako a, Yuliya; B enzel, Hanna (2020): The ole o leng h o asylum p ocedu e and legal
s a us in he labou ma ke in eg a ion o e ugees in Ge many. In: Soziale Wel , Vol. 71, No.
H. 1/2, p. 123–159.
Kosyako a, Yuliya; Olb ich, Lukas; Gallegos To es, Ka ia; Hamme , Luisa; Koch, The esa;
Wagne , Simon (2025): Ge many as a s opo e ? Re u n and onwa d mig a ion in en ions o
immig an s in he ligh o new da a om he In e na ional Mobili y Panel o Mig an s in
Ge many (IMPa). In: IAB‑Fo schungsbe ich , Nü nbe g: IAB, o hcoming.
Lechne , Michael (2011): The es ima ion o causal e ec s by di e ence‑in‑di e ence
me hods. In: Founda ions and T ends® in Econome ics, Vol. 4, No. 3, p. 165–224.
LeMonde; AFP (2024): Se e al Eu opean coun ies suspend Sy ians’ asylum eques s.
Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
Mülle ‑Funk, Lea; F ansen, Sonja (2023): “I Will Re u n S ong”: The Role o Li e Aspi a ions
in Re ugees’ Re u n Aspi a ions. In: In e na ional Mig a ion Re iew, Vol. 57, No. 4, p.
1739–1770.
Na ional Coun e e o ism Cen e (2022): Fo eign e o is o ganiza ions: Hay’a Tah i
al‑Sham (HTS). Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
OCHA (2025): Sy ian A ab Republic ‑ Humani a ian esponse p io i ies (JAN‑MAR 2025).
Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
Onde , Ha un; Sayed, Haneen Ismail (2020): The Mobili y o Displaced Sy ians: An Economic
and Social Analysis. In: .
Pede sen, Gei (2024): UN / Sy ia poli ical humani a ian. Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
San ’Anna, Ped o HC; Zhao, Jun (2020): Doubly obus di e ence‑in‑di e ences es ima o s.
In: Jou nal o econome ics, Vol. 219, No. 1, p. 101–122.
Tagesschau (2024): Zu ück nach Sy ien? Diskussion übe Rückkeh on Flüch lingen.
Accessed: 2025‑05‑09.
UNHCR (2025): Sy ia Re ugee C isis Explained.Accessed: 2025‑03‑12.
Wo ld Bank (2024): The Wo ld Bank In Sy ian A ab Republic. Accessed: 2025‑03‑19.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 23
Appendix
Figu e A.1: P e‑ ends – he wish o s ay in Ge many pe manen ly
No es: Annual a e ages. Con lic /wa coun ies include A ghanis an, I aq, Somalia, Uk aine. All obse a ions
a e weigh ed by hei su ey weigh . Sou ce: IAB‑BAMF‑SOEP.
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 24
Lis o Figu es
Figu e 1: Di e ence in s ay in en ions be ween g oups be o e and a e Assad’s all
........................................................................................ 13
Figu e 2: Coe icien plo s o he p obabili y o empo a y and unce ain se le‑
men in en ions in Ge many, and emig a ion conside a ions, by g oup .... 18
Figu e A.1: P e‑ ends – he wish o s ay in Ge many pe manen ly ...................... 24
Lis o Tables
Table 1: Long‑ e m in en ions ................................................................ 14
Table 2: Conc e e emig a ion plans o he nex 12 mon hs ............................. 15
Table A.1: Robus ness – Long‑ e m in en ions................................................ 25
Table A.2: RD eg essions – Long‑ e m in en ions ........................................... 26
Table A.3: Po en ial channels ................................................................... 27
Table A.4: Cha ac e is ics o Sy ian esponden s be o e and a e Assad’s down all .. 28
Table A.5: Cha ac e is ics o esponden s om con lic / wa coun ies be o e and
a e Assad’s down all ............................................................... 29
Table A.6: Summa y s a is ics o ea men and con ol g oups .......................... 30
Table A.7: Ques ions conce ning se lemen plans........................................... 30
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025 31
Imp in
IAB‑Discussion Pape 09|2025
Publica ion Da e
June 26, 2025
Publishe
Ins i u e o Employmen Resea ch
o he Fede al Employmen Agency
Regensbu ge S aße 104
90478 Nü nbe g
Ge many
All igh s ese ed
This publica ion is published unde he ollowing C ea i e Commons licence: A ibu ion –
Sha eAlike 4.0 In e na ional (CC BY‑SA 4.0)
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by‑sa/4.0/deed.de
Download
h ps://doku.iab.de/discussionpape s/2025/dp0925.pd
All publica ions in he se ies “IAB-Discusssion Pape ” can be downloaded om
h ps://iab.de/en/publica ions/iab‑publica ions/iab‑discussion‑pape ‑en/
Websi e
h ps://iab.de/en
ISSN
2195‑2663
DOI
10.48720/IAB.DP.2509
Co esponding au ho
Luisa Hamme
E‑Mail luisa.hamme @iab.de
++49 0911 1773004
