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ARE TRAFFIC VIOLATORS CRIMINALS? SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS IN
EXPERIENCES OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
1. INTRODUCTION.
Road a ic acciden s (RTAs) a e a majo cause o mo ali y and se ious mo bidi y wi h high
cos s along he en i e Eu opean Union (EU) geog aphy (Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2014; O si e
al., 2012). Wo ldwide, among he issues ha con ibu e o he occu ence o RTAs, mos o
s udies highligh beha io al ac o s as a p incipal explana ion; pa icula ly hose ha educe
capabili ies (d owsiness, a igue, alcohol o d ug consump ion) o inc ease isk while d i ing
( a ic o ences, d i e s ess, iolence and agg essi eness in a ic, mo o ehicle c imes)
(Pe idou & Mous aki, 2000 analyze his classi ica ion in dep h).
A e ini ial s udies such as Po e ield (1960), in he las wo decades special a en ion has
been paid in he li e a u e o he connec ion be ween oad a ic sa e y and c iminal beha io .
The oles o bo h a ic law en o cemen (TLE) and legal sys ems ha e been highligh ed as
de e ence and puni i e measu es o imp o e compliance wi h a ic ules (see he
comp ehensi e in e na ional o e iews p o ided by B ace e al., 2009 and Zaal, 1994,
espec i ely). Much esea ch has p o ided e idence wo ldwide ha people wi h an isocial
a i udes who commi agg essi e and o he o ences due o a lack o assimila ion o social
no ms, a e mo e equen ly in ol ed in isky si ua ions in gene al (see e.g. Fische and
Poland, 1998 on how social exclusion may e en se e as a con ol mechanism when
adi ional means o social con ol such as punishmen s o de e ence a e ine ec i e o
insu icien ) and a e speci ically mo e p one o RTAs and a ic iola ions (B ough on, 2007;
Săucan e al., 2012; Süme , 2003; Wes e al., 1993).
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In ac , he ela ionship be ween oad sa e y and c iminali y has been add essed by applying
di e en psychological, sociological and c iminological esea ch app oaches (B ace e al.,
2009; Junge e al., 1995a, o a b oad analysis). Fo ins ance: he endency o commi c ime
acco ding o pe sonali y ai s (wi h he heo y labeled as “Mild Social De iance” based on
in ol emen in acciden s associa ed wi h exp ession o hos ile a i udes, agg ession and
an isocial o ms o beha io , Meadows e al., 1998; Wes e al., 1993); di e se si ua ional
hypo heses ha sugges ha he way one d i es is closely linked o o he beha io al ai s in
one’s pe sonal and social li e, because d i ing beha io is ac ually a pa o a complex sys em
de e mined by a i udinal and mo i a ional ac o s ha a ec indi iduals in hei ela ions
wi h socie y ( he so-called “Sel -con ol Theo y” and “Social Con ol Theo y” and he
“Hie a chical App oach” applied o a ic esea ch by Ha akka e al., 2002; Junge e al.,
1995b; Junge & T emblay, 1999, among o he s).
Howe e , he connec ion be ween c iminal o unsa e beha io and oad sa e y seems o be a
ela i ely unde - esea ched opic bo h na ionally and abo e all in e na ionally. Di e en
causal links a e explo ed in he li e a u e, p edominan ly: be ween gene al c imes and a ic
o ences wi h an special emphasis in ecidi ism (B ough on, 2007; Palk e al., 2005; Rose,
2000); be ween an isocial o nega i e beha io (homicide, obbe y, consump ion o alcohol
and illici d ugs) and dange ous d i ing (E e e e al., 1999; Ma shall e al., 1996); and o a
mino deg ee, he ela ionship be ween gene al c iminal beha io and RTAs (in e ms o he
numbe o acciden s, a ali ies o inju y a es) (Giacopassi & Fo de, 2000; Po e ield, 1960).
Al hough he e is a gene al consensus on he main heo e ical hypo heses ha a s ong
co ela ion holds, ce ain au ho s s a e ha his migh be spu ious and ha he s a is ical
associa ion be ween c ime and RTAs is ac ually he esul o a common causal p ocess ela ed
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o socioeconomic con ex (age and sex, isk exposu e o acciden , income le el,
unemploymen , e c.), (Junge e al., 1995a, 1995b; Junge & T emblay, 1999; Si ak, 1983).
Ou con ibu ion o he li e a u e alls in o his ield. The main aim o he cu en s udy is o
examine econome ically he associa ion be ween c iminal beha io and a ic a ali ies pe
capi a h ough a panel o he 28 cu en membe s a es o he Eu opean Union (EU28) o he
1999-2010 pe iod. We aim o es he hypo hesis ha c ime a es (and speci ically, mo o
ehicle- ela ed c imes) may be conside ed as p edic o s o a al RTAs. Following B ace e al.
(2009) and Giacopassi & Fo de (2000), he e has been e y li le esea ch unde aken o
explo e he e ec s o he ela ionship be ween gene al c iminal beha io and c ash
in ol emen speci ically.
We conside ha ou esea ch has se e al ad an ages o e p e ious s udies ha gua an ee i s
o iginali y. Fi s ly, his issue has ecei ed some a en ion om esea che s in ce ain coun ies
ha ha e analyzed he issue a he na ional le el; al hough, o ou knowledge, no p e ious
s udy conside s a b oad panel o coun ies, o ocuses speci ically on he in luence o c iminal
beha io (no only gene al c ime bu also speci ic mo o ehicle c ime) on dea h om a ic
acciden s.
Secondly, ou s udy also aims o explo e he ole o he legal sys em on he ela ionship
be ween c iminali y a es and RTAs om a geog aphical poin o iew, o he EU28
coun ies. Logically, he EU28 coun ies show a he e ogeneous spec um o cul u al a i udes
and social no ms (Ve eeck & V olix, 2007), and also a wide ange o a ic law amewo ks
(e.g., se e al coun ies wi h be e oad sa e y eco ds, such as he Ne he lands, p ocesses
a ic o enses unde adminis a i e laws, while o he leade s such as he Uni ed Kingdom
apply a c iminal a ic law sys em; ETSC, 1999). In ac , some s udies s a e ha compliance
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wi h he a ic ules (and wi h gene al law) in each coun y, is dependen no only on he
social a i udes o oad use s o ce ain beha io , bu also on he op imiza ion o he law and
i s en o cemen (TLE o a ic) ha should o m pa o a global s a egy o imp o e oad
sa e y: legisla ion, educa ion, en o cemen and judicial p ocedu es (see e.g. Wegman, 1992).
The e ec s o changes in he le el o sanc ions ( icke s and ines, jail sen ences,
deme i /penal y poin s sys ems) o en o cemen (numbe o police o ice s, numbe o b ea h
es s o alcohol/d ugs, speed came as) on he le el o oad sa e y (acciden a es) has been
analyzed by much economic esea ch in e es ed in an op imal alloca ion o sca ce esou ces,
bu wi h no conclusi e indings. Ne e heless, he e seems o be gene al ag eemen ha
en o cemen o oad ules should be aimed p ima ily a de e ence, being accompanied by
publici y ha is unp edic able and di icul o a oid, wi h a mix u e o highly isible and less
isible ac i i ies and con inued o e a long pe iod o ime because he e ec s a e sho e m
(S anoje ić e al., 2012; Zaal, 1994). Special a en ion has been paid by au ho s such as
Deshap iya & Iwase (1996) and Tay (2005, 2010) o he se e i y o sanc ions as a de e ence
mechanism o inc ease he indi idual’s pe cei ed isk o app ehension and punishmen . In he
oad sa e y a ena, s ic e sanc ions seem o achie e be e and as e esul s i hey a e mainly
de e mined by he legisla u e and adminis a i e/judicia y sys em (i.e., he in oduc ion o
oughe jail sen ences and punishmen s may educe a ic iola ion a es, al hough o a
limi ed pe iod; see o example cases as a ied as Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011 o Spain; Li
e al., 2014 o Hong Kong; Libe a i e al., 2001 o B azil; Mon ag, 2014 o he Czech
Republic o Sen, 2001 o Canada). The e o e, in his pape we examine he na u e o he
mos se e e legal sys ems as de e mining ac o s o he le el o EU28 oad sa e y.
In sho , we a emp o de e mine i he e may be a clea co ela ion be ween oad a ali y
a es and he mains eam ypes o c ime a an in e na ional le el, which would se e o jus i y,
a leas p ima acie, he inc easingly widesp ead endency o conside a ic o ences as
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c imes and oughen he penal ies imposed in he penal codes. Following his a gumen , we
simul aneously analyze whe he he deg ee o se e i y o he legal sys em applied o a ic
o ences could be a good ool in he cons an s uggle o Wes e n socie ies o diminish he
d ama o RTAs.
A e his heo e ical in oduc ion, he ollowing sec ions p esen he me hodological
amewo k o ou esea ch, a discussion o ou indings and inally a summa y o ou main
conclusions.
2. VARIABLES AND METHODOLOGY.
In ou empi ical analysis, we de elop a ixed-e ec s model ha akes he ollowing o m o
coun y i du ing pe iod :
Yi = α + βkXi + γkZi + λkWi + μi + ν + εi (1)
whe e Yi is he log o he o al pe capi a a ali y a e (wi hin 30 days o he acciden ,
acco ding o he Vienna Con en ion de ini ion)
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, Xi e e s o a iables ha iden i y he
c iminal a i udes o he coun y’s inhabi an s, Zi con ains he ec o o he coun y’s
economic and demog aphic a ibu es, and Wi a e bo h he se e i y o legal sys em- ela ed
a iables as p oxies o law en o cemen , and speci ic a iables ela ed o oad sa e y policies.
μi a e coun y ixed e ec s ha con ol o omi ed ime-in a ian coun y-speci ic a iables,
ν a e yea dummies ha con ol o he common end in all he coun ies in he da ase and εi
is a mean-ze o andom e o .
1
Albala e (2008), Albala e & Bel (2011), Dee (2001) and Eisenbe g (2003) conside ha his is he mos
app op ia e dependen a iable o assessing oad a ic a ali ies as he in e p e a ion o policy a iables is
clea e .

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We use da a o he EU28 coun ies o he ime pe iod om 1999 o 2010. This means ha
his is he b oades da abase in e ms o bo h ime and geog aphy used in an analysis wi h
hese objec i es. Table 1 p o ides he desc ip ions, in o ma ion sou ces and desc ip i e
s a is ics (mean and s anda d de ia ion) o all he a iables used in he analysis.
[INSERT TABLE 1]
As we s a e abo e, he main aim o ou empi ical analysis is o examine whe he he c iminal
a i udes o he inhabi an s o a coun y ha e an e ec on a ic a ali y a es. Acco ding o
ea lie s udies (B ace e al., 2009; Junge e al., 1995a; Junge e al., 2001b; Po e ield, 1960;
Si ak, 1983; Süme , 2003), we may expec a posi i e co ela ion be ween c iminal ac i i ies
and he a i udes o d i e s on he oad, in he sense o a highe likelihood ha hey a e
in ol ed in a a al RTA. The hypo hesis we es he e is ha le els o social agg ession a e a
p edic o o a ic acciden s: highe c ime a es a e associa ed wi h mo e dea hs on he oads,
bea ing in mind he possible in luence o he spu iousness hesis suppo ed by schola s such
as Junge e al. (1995a) and Si ak (1983), as we men ioned in he In oduc ion abo e. In
equa ion (1) we include ou explana o y a iables ha iden i y he c iminali y a es o a
coun y’s popula ion, and we also conside some con ol a iables ha a e desc ibed in he
ollowing pa ag aphs.
We collec ed comple e da a o wo a iables ela ed wi h gene al c iminali y a es, also used
by p e ious empi ical esea ch, al hough i only conside ed speci ic coun ies (Giacopassi &
Fo de, 2000; Junge e al., 1995b; Junge e al., 2001a; Si ak, 1983): he numbe o homicides
and he numbe o obbe ies. Mo eo e , as we men ion abo e in he In oduc ion, almos all
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he ea lie esea ch ocused on gene al c ime a iables o on ypical d i ing iola ions- ela ed
a iables, such as alcohol consump ion (Deshap iya & Iwase, 1996; Pe ie e al., 2010; Wes
e al., 1993) o o he s, such as so-called “joy- iding” c ime (Ma shall e al., 1996). By o he
hand, au ho s such as B omley and Nelson, 2002, ind ha alcohol is no ed as a con ibu o y
ac o in eco ded c imes.
Fu he mo e, we include wo a iables o c imes speci ically linked o oad ehicle a ic: he
numbe o d ug a icking c imes and he numbe o mo o ehicle he s. All hese a iables
a e measu ed in ela i e e ms acco ding o he coun y’s popula ion. While we may expec
ha he coe icien associa ed wi h he c ime a iables is posi i e, such an e ec should be
pa icula ly ele an o hose a iables, such as d ugs, ha a e mo e linked o oad ehicle
a ic, in ag eemen wi h Gje de e al. (2011) and Smink e al. (2005) o ce ain coun ies.
Along wi h a iables ela ed wi h di e en ypes o c ime in he coun y’s popula ion, we also
analyze whe he he se e i y o he c iminal jus ice sys em in luences oad mo ali y a ios.
As a p oxy o he se e i y o he penal/legal sys em in a coun y, we include an index
a iable ha akes he alue ze o i no li e imp isonmen sen ence may be applied, he alue
one i such a sen ence is e isable and he alue 2 i he inde ini e sen ence is no e isable.
Ou expec a ion is ha he coe icien associa ed wi h his a iable will be nega i e, ollowing
p io esul s o e.g., Cas illo-Manzano e al. (2011), Libe a i e al. (2001) Mon ag, 2014 o
Sen (2001) ega ding he bene icial e ec s o s ic e punishmen applied o a ic iola o s,
speci ically on oad sa e y ou comes. Indeed, he a ic a ali y a es may be lowe in
coun ies wi h mo e se e e penal/legal/adminis a i e sys ems as he penal sys ems may ha e
a s ong in luence on he social beha io o ci izens and d i e s.
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We also conside addi ional a iables o oad sa e y policies. Following p e ious s udies on
oad sa e y (Albala e, 2008; Cas illo-Manzano & Cas o-Nuño, 2012; Cas illo-Manzano e al.,
2013, 2014; Deshap iya & Iwase, 1996; Eisenbe g, 2003; McCa hy, 2005), we conside he
in luence o p e en i e policies such as legal blood alcohol limi s, and include a dummy
a iable ha akes a alue o one o coun ies and pe iods whe e he maximum blood alcohol
concen a ion allowed is lowe han 0.5 g/L. Mos EU28 coun ies ha e se he limi a 0.5 o
lowe , so we a e able o es whe he blood alcohol concen a ion a es lowe han 0.5 a e
e ec i e in educing oad a ic a ali ies.
Addi ionally, we include a a iable ha cap u es he applica ion o poin s-based d i ing
licenses. Indeed, one o he explana o y a iables in equa ion (1) is an index a iable ha
akes he alue one i a penal y d i ing license sys em is applied, he alue wo i a deme i
d i ing license sys em is applied and he alue ze o i any poin s sys em is applied. We expec
o ind a nega i e sign in he coe icien associa ed wi h his a iable. The in oduc ion and
applica ion o any poin s sys em o d i ing licenses may lead o lowe a ic a ali y a es (i.e.
he s ong de e ence e ec analyzed by De Paola e al., 2013 o I aly), al hough he long-
e m e ec o his policy has been ques ioned (see Cas illo-Manzano & Cas o-Nuño, 2012,
o an in e na ional me a-analysis o he e ec s o such policies).
Ano he oad a ic policy a iable ha we ake in o accoun is o he maximum speed limi
allowed on mo o ways. Acco ding o p e ious s udies (A ukaa , 2003; El ik, 2012), we may
expec a posi i e sign in he coe icien associa ed wi h his a iable, as a highe speed limi
(and i s subsequen en o cemen ) may ha e as a consequence highe oad a ic a ali ies.
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Wi h espec o con ol ac o s, we include a iables ha a e ypically used in s udies o oad
a ic sa e y and ha a e ela ed o he coun y’s economic condi ions. In his ein, we
include he pe capi a g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) as an indica o o he coun y’s
economic de elopmen (Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2013, 2014; Ga cía-Fe e e al., 2007;
G imm & T eibich, 2012; O si e al., 2012).
The ela ionship be ween a coun y’s economic de elopmen and oad a ic a ali ies is
complex and we may expec ha i akes a non-linea o m (Anba ci e al., 2006; Bishai e al.,
2006; Kopi s & C oppe , 2005). Indeed, a ali y a es may inc ease wi h economic
de elopmen in e y poo coun ies due o inc eased exposu e o RTAs. Howe e , he
ela ionship be ween economic de elopmen and a ic a ali y a es may become la o e en
in e a e eaching a ce ain weal h h eshold. We es he hypo hesis conce ning non-
linea i y be ween GDP and a ic a ali ies by including he GDP and he squa e o he GDP
as explana o y a iables. I he non-linea ela ionship is con i med, hen he coe icien
associa ed wi h he GDP a iable will be posi i e and he coe icien associa ed o he squa e
o he GDP a iable will be nega i e.
Meanwhile, s udies show ha o e all c ime a es and p ope y c imes a e highe when
economic condi ions a e poo due o unemploymen o ecession (K üge , 2011) wi h a
posi i e ela ion e idenced o he EU by Al indag (2012). O he s udies e en sugges how
income inequali y may play an impo an ole in he de e mina ion o he c ime a e (Sachsida
e al., 2010), ollowing he a ional c ime heo y, because he oppo uni y cos o commi ing
a c ime seems o dec ease and he ne indi idual’s bene i migh be highe (K üge , 2013).
GDP is he e o e qui e a use ul con ol a iable when he in en ion is o s udy any possible
co ela ion wi h c ime a es.
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s udy is o a b oad sample: EU28 and a ull wel e yea s o esea ch, and shows ha his is
no a gene ic ela ionship bu is limi ed o speci ic c iminal beha io being linked o eckless
d i ing. These a e speci ically he o ense ca ego ies o mo o ehicle he and d ug
a icking, which closely co ela e wi h a ic acciden s.
Ano he ele an esul o ou esea ch is ha he e is also a clea co ela ion be ween a
educ ion in he oad a ali y a e and he li e imp isonmen a iable, which can be conside ed
o be a clea p oxy o he gene al s ingency o each coun y’s c iminal code. Thus, he
se e i y o he sanc ion may be used as a de e ence mechanism o inc ease he indi idual’s
pe cei ed isk o app ehension and punishmen (a signal abou he isibili y o s ic e TLE
and hea ie sanc ions); and social con ol migh be achie ed h ough de e ence by s ic e
laws.
All hese commen s suppo he idea o a clea co ela ion be ween c iminal beha io and
RTAs, inasmuch as speci ic s a egies used o con end wi h he o me also help o educe
RTAs. The oad a ali y a es seem o be highe in Eu opean coun ies whe e he inhabi an s
show mo e socially agg essi e beha io , while hey a e lowe in coun ies wi h mo e se e e
penal sys ems.
Finally, oge he all hese indings could be conside ed o be indi ec empi ical suppo o
coun ies such as B azil, Canada, he Czech Republic o Spain ha ha e oughened sanc ions
o comba oad acciden s, ei he h ough hea ie economic and adminis a i e sanc ions o
e en jail sen ences, which a e en isaged in hei penal codes o eckless beha io behind he
wheel. In sho , i shows suppo o he coun ies ha ea his eckless beha io and he
people esponsible o i as c iminals.

17
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TABLE 1. Va iables used in he empi ical analysis.
Va iables
Desc ip ion
Sou ce
Mean
S anda d
De ia ion
Pe capi a a ali ies
Fa ali y a es pe million inhabi an s
CARE (EU oad acciden s
da abase)
108.44
45.04
Li e imp isonmen
Index a iable ha akes he alue 0
i no li e imp isonmen sen ence may
applied; 1 i imp isonmen sen ence is
e isable (pa don, amnes y o o he
elease may be applied); 2 i
inde ini e sen ence is no e isable
INTERNATIONAL
JUSTICE RESOURCE
CENTER
1.57
0.67
Homicides
Numbe o homicides pe 100,000
inhabi an s
(In en ional killing o a pe son,
including mu de , manslaugh e ,
eu hanasia and in an icide)
EUROSTAT
2.24
2.31
Robbe y
Robbe y c imes pe 100,000
inhabi an s
(S ealing om a pe son wi h o ce o
h ea o o ce, including muggings-
bag-sna ching and he wi h
iolence)
EUROSTAT
88.83
70.35
25
D ugs
d ug a icking c imes pe 100,000
inhabi an s
(Illegal possession, cul i a ion,
p oduc ion, supplying, anspo a ion,
impo ing, expo ing, inancing e c.
o d ug ope a ions which a e no
solely in connec ion wi h pe sonal
use)
EUROSTAT
66.34
65.82
Mo o ehicle he
Mo o ehicle he pe 100 000
inhabi an s
(The o all land ehicles wi h an
engine ha un on he oad which a e
used o ca y people, including ca s,
mo o cycles, buses, lo ies)
EUROSTAT
219.55
184.68
Pe capi a GDP
Pe capi a g oss domes ic p oduc in
In e na ional Compa able P ices
(US$ a 2005 p ices and PPP)
UNECE S a is ical
Di ision Da abase,
compiled om o icial
na ional and in e na ional
(CIS, EUROSTAT, IMF,
OECD) sou ces
24960
11653
Mo o iza ion
Numbe o egis e ed ehicles pe
1000 inhabi an s
UNECE anspo di ision,
Eu os a , Wo ld Bank and
na ional da abases
424.74
111.99
Vehicles-km d i en
Numbe o passenge -ca s-km
exp essed in 1000 million km and
weigh ed by na ional popula ion
Eu opean Commission
(Di ec o a e Gene al o
mobili y and anspo )
39.97
317.52
Mo o way densi y
Numbe kms o mo o ways di ided
by squa e km o he coun y
EUROSTAT and UNECE
1.69
1.73
Old
% popula ion o e 60 yea s old
EUROSTAT
20.67
2.52
Young
% popula ion aged 20-39 yea s
EUROSTAT
28.75
1.92