The efficacy of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth: Evidence from Thailand

Pa hai a Pas pipa kul; H we Ko
A icle
The e icacy o mone a y and iscal policies on economic
g ow h: E idence om Thailand
Economies
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MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Pa hai a Pas pipa kul; H we Ko (2025) : The e icacy o mone a y and iscal
policies on economic g ow h: E idence om Thailand, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel,
Vol. 13, Iss. 1, pp. 1-17,
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Re ised: 10 Janua y 2025
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Published: 15 Janua y 2025
Ci a ion: Pas pipa kul, P., & Ko, H.
(2025). The E icacy o Mone a y and
Fiscal Policies on Economic G ow h:
E idence om Thailand. Economies,
13(1), 19. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies13010019
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A icle
The E icacy o Mone a y and Fiscal Policies on Economic
G ow h: E idence om Thailand
Pa hai a Pas pipa kul and H we Ko *
Facul y o Economics, Chiang Mai Uni e si y, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand; [email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : This s udy empi ically explo es he dynamic e ec o MP and FP on he economic
g ow h o Thailand om Q1:2003 o Q2:2024. In his s udy, da a analysis was conduc ed
using an ad anced sequence o he econome ic modeling app oach o gua an ee ha
he es ima ed esul s we e mo e consis en and eliable. Fi s , we used Bayesian addi i e
eg ession ees (BART) and Bayesian a iable selec ion (BASAD) me hods o de e mine
mac o ac o s wi h he highes p obabili ies in luencing g ow h, in addi ion o mone a y and
iscal policy ools du ing he s udied pe iods. Second, we used he ime- a ying coe icien s
seemingly un ela ed equa ion (TVSURE) model o examine he economic impac o MP
and FP. Las , we also employed he Ma ko swi ching eg ession (MSR) model no only o
suppo he indings om he TVSURE model bu also o p opose policy ecommenda ions
based on egime du a ions and ansi ions emp ed by MP and FP. The main esul s om
bo h TVSURE and MSR e eal he ollowing: (1) MP is mo e consis en wi h expec ed
g ow h ou comes while FP is s onge when localized, (2) MP is mo e e ec i e in sus aining
long pe iods o high g ow h, (3) FP is signi ican ly s onge in eco e ing om ecessions,
and (4) he coo dina ion o MP and FP has a simila pe o mance o MP alone bu wi h
sho e ansi ion pe iods. This s udy makes an empi ical con ibu ion o he ongoing
deba e on he e ec i eness o MP and FP in boos ing g ow h and aiding in he eco e y
om ecessions in he case o Thailand. In addi ion, his s udy no only acknowledged
ce ain limi a ions bu also ecommended policies o sus ain he Thai economy.
Keywo ds: mone a y policy; iscal policy; g ow h; TVSURE; Ma ko swi ching; Thailand
1. In oduc ion
Mone a y and iscal policies a e implemen ed as c i ical ins umen s o d i e a na ion
owa d economic p ospe i y. This pape ag ees ha mone a y policy (MP) and iscal policy
(FP) a e essen ial o main aining sus ainable economic g ow h, mode a ing in la ion,
ensu ing deb sus ainabili y, and achie ing balanced public inances. Fo many coun ies,
go e nmen s a e esponsible o iscal ools and cen al banks, while, on he o he hand,
handling mone a y ools o espond o any ex e nal shocks such as global inancial and
heal h c ises. These kinds o c ises a e uly de imen al o he economy. Fo example,
ollowing he co ona i us (COVID-19) pandemic, China’s coo dina ed economic e i al
p oduced signi ican spillo e e ec s globally ha a ec ed no only he economic g ow h
bu ene gy demand in uppe -middle and also high-income na ions (Yuan e al.,2022).
In mode n days, he combina ion o MP and FP plus a o able in es men condi ions
is qui e impo an o ou pu g ow h and social de elopmen in line wi h he long- e m
g ow h pa h. In ac , Behe a e al. (2024) a gued he need o an e ec i e s a egy o add ess
ex eme e en s like he COVID-19 pandemic. Fundamen ally, MP and FP sha e he same
Economies 2025,13, 19 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13010019
Economies 2025,13, 19 2 o 17
objec i e o s imula ing public wel a e, simila o o he mechanisms o public policies.
Mo eo e , one s udy ound e idence o a subs i u ion associa ion be ween policies (A onso
e al.,2019). Go e nmen s and cen al banks mus collabo a e closely o ake ac ions ha
p e en he signi ican decline in economic ac i i ies. Fiscal sus ainabili y is essen ial in
suppo ing he ini ia i es o mone a y au ho i ies. Cen al banks, h ough implemen ing
mone a y policies, aim o sa egua d p ice s abili y and go e nmen s h ough adjus ing
iscal policies ha egula e mo e e enue, p op ia e expendi u es, and a oid budge de ici s
o c ea e sa is ac o y condi ions o economic de elopmen . While MP and FP may ha e
di e en goals, a mode a e mone a y expansion should be implemen ed alongside a bal-
anced iscal policy excep in ex ao dina y economic ci cums ances (Chuguno e al.,2021).
Fo ins ance, cen al banks in ad anced economies shi ed o uncon en ional measu es due
o he ze o lowe bound, while iscal ools showed limi ed consolida ion e o s a e he
2008 inancial c isis (Sil a & Viei a,2017). In addi ion, A o a e al. (2022) suppo ed he
use o an op imal combina ion o MP and FP o achie e sus ainable g ow h, pa icula ly in
e ms o demand g ow h and p ice s abili y. Thei s udy sugges ed ha FP should ake a
leading ole wi h mone a y and ade policies, ac ing h ough adjus men s as needed. They
a gued ha his policy coo dina ion can s abilize he economy and g ow h o he long
e m based on he qua e ly da ase o India om Q1:1996–97 and Q4:2019–2020.
While bo h mone a y policy (MP) and iscal policy (FP) a e widely conside ed as
signi ican con ibu o s owa ds imp o ing he mac oeconomic s abili y, hei e icacy in
sus aining g ow h o he Thai economy emains insu icien ly explo ed. Mo eo e , gi en
he challenges Thailand aces, such as household deb , aging popula ion, in la ion, poli ical
unce ain y, and global economic headwinds, he coun y also pu sues oppo uni ies in
digi al ans o ma ion and sus ainable de elopmen . Howe e , no empi ical s udy has
been conduc ed on he e icacy o MP and FP ollowing hese c ises in Thailand. The e o e,
we use he la es a ailable da a o examine he e ec s o mone a y and iscal policies along
wi h o he mac o a iables on he Thai economy. The empi ical indings a e ob ained
h ough his p esen s udy by using TVSURE and MSR models; his s udy examines he
e ec i eness o MP in sus aining long- e m g ow h and FP in acili a ing a apid eco e y
du ing economic down u ns in he case o Thailand. This pape con ibu es o he exis ing
empi ical li e a u e by explo ing he mac o e ec s o MP and FP shocks, wi h a ocus on
acking economic g ow h and he po en ial in luence o a comp ehensi e se o a iables.
This pape is s uc u ed as ollows: i begins wi h a e iew o ecen empi ical s udies,
ollowed by a sec ion on he da a and me hods o s udy used o da a analysis. The esul s
and discussions a e hen p esen ed. Finally, conclusions and policy ecommenda ions a e
p o ided a he end.
2. Recen Empi ical S udies on MP and FP in Rela ion o G ow h
The e has been ex ensi e empi ical esea ch on he ela ionship be ween mone a y
policy (MP), iscal policy (FP), and economic g ow h ac oss di e en coun ies. Howe e ,
he exis ing li e a u e p esen s inconsis encies, wi h some s udies showing posi i e impac s,
while o he s epo nega i e and na u al ela ionships. As Andini (2024) no es, he nexus
be ween hese policies and g ow h depends on many ac o s including he e ogenei y,
sample size, esea ch me hods, con ol a iables, and o he ela i e elemen s. These
a ying ac o s may be a cause behind he mixed indings obse ed in he li e a u e. In his
sec ion, we e iewed some o he ecen empi ical s udies in his ield o iden i y he gaps
his s udy seeks o ill.
One o he mos ele an empi ical s udies conduc ed by Tan e al. (2020) ound he
exis ence o a nega i e ela ionship be ween economic g ow h and he money ma ke a e
(as a ool o MP) and a posi i e link wi h go e nmen spending (as a ool o FP) in Thailand
Economies 2025,13, 19 3 o 17
om Q1:1990 o Q1:2017. They concluded ha FP is mo e e ec i e in Thailand compa ed
o Malaysia and Singapo e. Bu his conclusion appea s biased as i only conside ed wo
explana o y ac o s impac ing he eal GDP. Addi ionally, he esul s showed he ou comes
a e asymme ic, wi h MP and FP being mu ually dependen . In con as , Chuguno
e al. (2021) empi ically in es iga ed he impac o FP and MP on economic g ow h in 19
eme ging coun ies om 1995 o 2018. They ound (1) he gene al go e nmen spending has
a nega i e ela ionship wi h he pe capi al GDP g ow h, (2) he e ec o public spending
on economic de elopmen depends on h ee ac o s like ins i u ions’ quali y, expendi u e
composi ion, and iscal a chi ec u e, and (3) he e is a p o en need o maximize he sha e
o p oduc i e expendi u es. Based on hese esul s, hey ecommended using adap i e
ools in MP o achie e bo h in e media e and inal in la ion a ge s. Simila ly, Ozili (2024)
used seconda y annual da a o 22 coun ies be ween 2011 and 2018 o in es iga e he
impac o mone a y, iscal, and egula o y policies on sus ainable de elopmen while
con olling o economic g ow h. His indings showed he ollowing: (1) economic policy
imp o es sus ainable de elopmen in de eloping and non-Eu opean coun ies bu has
a nega i e e ec in de eloped and Eu opean coun ies, (2) expansiona y MP suppo s
SDG6, (3) expansiona y iscal policy boo s SDG3: Good Heal h and Well-Being and SDG7:
A o dable and Clean Ene gy bu ha ms SDG6: Clean Wa e and Sani a ion, (4) egula o y
policy ha is being designed o imp o e go e nance enhances SDG3 and SDG6, and
(5) changes o hese policies lead o changes in sus ainable de elopmen .
Rega ding exchange a e egimes, one s udy conduc ed by I o and Kawai (2024) ound
ha (1) mone a y policy is e ec i e in inc easing eal GDP g ow h unde a lexible exchange
a e egime bu no unde inancially open ixed a e egime, (2) MP is mos e ec i e in
cu bing in la ion and in la ion ola ili y unde a lexible exchange a e egime, and (3) FP
posi i ely a ec s GDP g ow h unde a lexible exchange a e egime, and in la ion ola ili y
unde a inancially closed ixed a e egime helps achie e p ice s abili y in inancially open
economies. These indings we e based on he sample o 61 de eloping and eme ging
economies om 1971 o 2020. When conside ing mone a y and iscal policies in luencing
sus ainable de elopmen , i a ies ac oss coun ies and egions. Al hough he quali a i e
documen analysis o Abeyseke a (2024) on he ole o mone a y, iscal, and public policies
on SDGs be o e and a e he COVID-19 pandemic, public policy was seen as a signi ican
d i e o sus ainable de elopmen in S i Lanka. In con as , MP and FP we e p ima ily
di ec ed owa d economic eco e y e o s. Dinh e al. (2024) examined he e ec o MP and
FP on sus ainable de elopmen om 2005 o 2020 using a panel da ase o 33 de eloping
and 7 de eloped coun ies. The s udy ound ha MP as measu ed by he money supply and
in la ion nega i ely a ec s sus ainable de elopmen , while o eign exchange ese es and
inancial s abili y ha e a posi i e impac wi h p obabili ies o 89.6 pe cen in de eloped and
92.5 pe cen in de eloping coun ies. FP as measu ed by go e nmen spending posi i ely
suppo s sus ainable de elopmen wi h a p obabili y o 99.7 pe cen in bo h de eloped and
de eloping coun ies. Meanwhile, ax income inc eases sus ainable de elopmen wi h a
100 pe cen p obabili y in de eloped coun ies bu shows a 60.9 pe cen p obabili y o a
nega i e e ec in de eloping coun ies.
Demi as (2023) s udied he e ec i eness o expansiona y MP and FP in 55 de eloped
and 55 de eloping coun ies om 2007 o 2026 by using an A ellano–Bond GMM model.
The esul s showed ha MP is mo e e ec i e han FP in de eloped coun ies and FP in
de eloping coun ies suppo s agg ega e demand. Mo eo e , Azad e al. (2021) explo ed
he economic impac o MP and FP o Canada om Q1:1990 o Q4:2020 by using he
egime-swi ching model and s uc u al VAR model. They ound ha FP has been mo e
ac i e han MP o boos ing sho - e m economic ac i i y, bu causes ising in e es a es,
lowe in es men , and highe in la ion in he long e m. Fu he mo e, Ba ayneh e al. (2024)
Economies 2025,13, 19 4 o 17
empi ically in es iga ed MP and FP on US economic g ow h om Q1:1964 o Q3:2021 by
using an un es ic ed VAR model. They ound ha he ede al budge de ici (FP) and
money supply, ede al unds a e, and exchange a e (MP) ha e no long- e m ela ionship
wi h g ow h. In he sho e m, expansiona y MP and FP posi i ely a ec economic
g ow h, while he exchange a e shows no signi ican e ec . Addi ionally, he inancial
c isis and COVID-19 pandemic we e ound o ha e a nega i e impac on he US economy
o he s udied pe iods. Fu he mo e, Nu u (2020) s udied he e ec s o MP and FP
shocks in he Sou h A ican economy by using a s uc u al ec o au o eg essi e (SVAR)
model o he pe iods o Q2:1994 o Q2:2014. His indings showed ha MP igh ening
educes eal economic ac i i ies and leads o exchange a e dep ecia ion. Fo FP, he
go e nmen spending mul iplie inc eased as he ax mul iplie was close o ze o on impac
and s a is ically insigni ican . His s udy emphasized he p esence o he impo an ole o
MP and FP in in luencing economic ac i i ies and pollical decision-making.
In addi ion, Adegboyo e al. (2021) ound ha FP s imula es Nige ia’s economic
g ow h in he long un wi h go e nmen spending bu his is no consis en in he sho
un. Go e nmen e enue, howe e , was no ound o a ec g ow h. On he o he hand,
mone a y policies showed ha he money supply does no a ec g ow h, bu an inc ease in
in e es a es posi i ely in luence g ow h be ween 1985 and 2020. The au ho s sugges ed
ha policymake s use in e es a es and iscal policies o boos sho - e m economic g ow h
o Nige ia. F om 1960 o 2020 in Nige ia, he exchange a e and money supply had a
posi i e and signi ican link wi h g ow h, while he in e es a e showed a posi i e bu
insigni ican ela ionship and he in la ion a e had a nega i e and insigni ican impac
(Donald e al.,2024). Mo eo e , Isaiah e al. (2024) and Dodo e al. (2024) bo h examined he
economic impac o MP and FP o he same coun y (Nige ia) o he pe iods be ween 1991
and 2022 and om 1981 o 2017, espec i ely. FP had a posi i e and signi ican e ec on
g ow h while MP nega i ely a ec s i (Dodo e al.,2024). Isaiah e al. (2024) no ed MP was
weak compa ed o FP in i s impac on Nige ia’s economy while esul ing in high in la ion
and exchange a e ola ili y. Mwale and Mulenga (2024) also ound ha 1 pe cen inc eases
in ax e enue ha e a posi i e and signi ican long- e m impac on g ow h by 3.36 pe cen ,
while ex e nal deb and public expendi u e ha e nega i e e ec s by 1.17 pe cen and 0.003
pe cen , co espondingly, be ween 1991 and 2021 in Nige ia. In he sho e m, i showed 1
pe cen inc eases in ax e enue causes a g ow h decline by 0.003 pe cen and 6.14 pe cen ,
espec i ely.
Las bu no leas , Andini (2024) also a gued ha he economic g ow h– iscal policy
nexus can be a ied, showing posi i e, nega i e, o neu al esul s depending on ac o s
such as he e ogeneous condi ions, in e media e a iables, esea ch me hods, sample size,
and de elopmen le el o coun ies s udied, and many mo e. The s udy ound he e ec o
go e nmen spending, axa ion, and deb on g ow h emains unclea , including in epo s
by Nguyen e al. (2024), whe eas hey ound FP as measu ed by public expendi u e had a
la ge impac on economic g ow h han MP as measu ed by b oad money (M2) be ween
1996 and 2021 in Vie nam. In addi ion, Aisyah e al. (2024) examined he FP-economic
g ow h nexus in Indonesia and ound a close and posi i e ela ionship. The e was a long-
un posi i e nexus be ween inc eases and dec eases in go e nmen spending and economic
g ow h be ween 1970 and 2019 in Somalia (Ali e al.,2024). In ano he empi ical s udy by
Kim e al. (2021) on a simila opic o he case o China, hey ound local spending has
a la ge impac on ou pu g ow h han cen al spending be ween 1985 and 2016. I also
showed a shi om in as uc u e in es men s o R&D-d i en g ow h in ecen yea s. Ne
axes and public deb in China we e also ound o in luence he long- un g ow h.
The exis ing li e a u e e iewed showed he mixed indings o he economic impac
o MP and FP o di e en economies. Mo eo e , mos o hem end o na owly ocus

Economies 2025,13, 19 5 o 17
on ei he MP o FP alone so ha hey seem o o e look and igno e he conside a ion o
a ious mac oeconomic ac o s. We belie e hese indings may be subjec o signi ican
biases. The need o he e ec i e and ca e ul coo dina ion o MP and FP in o de o educe
h ea s o mac oeconomic s abili y is clea . The e o e, his s udy adop s a mone a y– iscal
mix app oach o mo e comp ehensi ely examine he e ec s o hese policies on he Thai
economy be ween he i s qua e o 2003 o he second qua e o 2024 by using an
ad anced sequence o econome ic modeling me hods.
3. Resea ch Me hodology
In his s udy, da a analysis was conduc ed using an ad anced sequence o econome ic
modeling app oach o gua an ee ha he es ima ed esul s we e mo e consis en and
eliable. We ini ially used Bayesian addi i e eg ession ees (BART) and Bayesian a iable
selec ion (BASAD) me hods o de e mine mac o ac o s wi h he highes p obabili ies o
in luencing g ow h in addi ion o mone a y and iscal policy ools du ing he s udied
pe iods. While bo h he BART and BASAD me hods a e s ill weak a choosing be ween
ele an and i ele an a iables, he inal selec ion o a iables was based on a mix-o de
app oach be ween he wo models. This way, we imp o e he consis ency o bo h he BART
and BASAD models by selec ing be ween ele an and i ele an a iables o he inal
a iable selec ion based on a mix-o de echnique be ween he wo models. Secondly, we
p oceeded he ime- a ying coe icien s seemingly un ela ed equa ion (TVSURE) model
o examine he economic impac o MP and FP. Finally, we used he Ma ko swi ching
eg ession (MSR) model no only o suppo he indings om he TVSURE model bu also
o p opose policy ecommenda ions based on egime du a ions and ansi ions. In o de
o suppo he indings om he ime- a ying seemingly un ela ed eg ession equa ions
(TVSURE) model and o de e mine whe he MP, FP, o he coo dina ion o MP and FP is
mo e e ec i e in sus aining g ow h, we de eloped h ee empi ical equa ions o u he
examine he egime-shi ing e ec o MP and FP on he Thai economy. Fo his o be
achie ed, we employed he Ma ko swi ching eg ession (MSR) model. Since TVSURE and
MSR a e linea models, we applied a log ans o ma ion o he inal selec ed a iables o
he s udy in o de o linea ize he ela ionships be ween he a iables. This way, i helps us
o be e i he model by making nonlinea ela ionships mo e linea and by s abilizing he
a iance. Figu e 1 ep esen s he concep ual amewo k o he s udy.
Economies2025,13,xFORPEERREVIEW5o 17

omac oeconomics abili yisclea .The e o e, hiss udyadop samone a y– iscalmix
app oach omo ecomp ehensi elyexamine heeffec so  hesepolicieson heThaiecon‐
omybe ween he i s qua e o 2003 o hesecondqua e o 2024byusinganad anced
sequenceo econome icmodelingme hods.
3.Resea chMe hodology
In hiss udy,da aanalysiswasconduc edusinganad ancedsequenceo econome ic
modelingapp oach ogua an ee ha  hees ima ed esul swe emo econsis en and elia‐
ble.Weini iallyusedBayesianaddi i e eg ession ees(BART)andBayesian a iablese‐
lec ion(BASAD)me hods ode e minemac o ac o swi h hehighes p obabili ieso in lu‐
encingg ow hinaddi ion omone a yand iscalpolicy oolsdu ing hes udiedpe iods.
Whilebo h heBARTandBASADme hodsa es illweaka choosingbe ween ele an and
i ele an  a iables, he inalselec iono  a iableswasbasedonamix‐o de app oachbe‐
ween he womodels.Thisway,weimp o e heconsis encyo bo h heBARTandBASAD
modelsbyselec ingbe ween ele an andi ele an  a iables o  he inal a iableselec ion
basedonamix‐o de  echniquebe ween he womodels.Secondly,wep oceeded he ime‐
a yingcoe icien sseeminglyun ela edequa ion(TVSURE)model oexamine heeco‐
nomicimpac o MPandFP.Finally,weused heMa ko swi ching eg ession(MSR)model
no only osuppo  he indings om heTVSUREmodelbu also op oposepolicy ecom‐
menda ionsbasedon egimedu a ionsand ansi ions.Ino de  osuppo  he indings
om he ime‐ a yingseeminglyun ela ed eg essionequa ions(TVSURE)modeland o
de e minewhe he MP,FP,o  hecoo dina iono MPandFPismo ee ec i einsus aining
g ow h,wede eloped h eeempi icalequa ions o u he examine he egime‐shi inge ‐
ec o MPandFPon heThaieconomy.Fo  his obeachie ed,weemployed heMa ko 
swi ching eg ession(MSR)model.SinceTVSUREandMSRa elinea models,weapplied
alog ans o ma ion o he inalselec ed a iableso  hes udyino de  olinea ize he e‐
la ionshipsbe ween he a iables.Thisway,i helpsus obe e  i  hemodelbymaking
nonlinea  ela ionshipsmo elinea andbys abilizing he a iance.Figu e1 ep esen s
heconcep ual amewo ko  hes udy.

Figu e 1. Concep ual amewo k o his s udy.
Economies 2025,13, 19 6 o 17
3.1. Bayesian Addi i e Reg ession T ees (BART) Model
BART is a me hod ha is being used o de e mine po en ial inpu p edic o s in luenc-
ing he dependen a iable o he s udy based on he pos e io inclusion p obabili ies o
a iables. This model is a non-pa ame ic one, by inco po a ing he Bayesian echnique,
i s de eloped by Chipman e al. (2010) and which is la e implemen ed in R e sion 4.4.1.
by Kapelne and Bleich (2016). The model has bo h ad an ages and disad an ages. One o
he p os o using his model is being able o handle nonlinea da ase s. This model consis s
o h ee componen s: 1. addi i e ees; 2. p io speci ica ion; and 3. a s ochas ic p ocess o
pos e io dis ibu ion so i is also known as he sum o ees. Va iables a e anked based
on hei a e age pos e io inclusion p obabili ies. One o he cons is ha his model only
p oduces a small ac ion o he a ia ion o he o e all ela ionship ha can be explained.
In his s udy, we used he “Ba Machine” package in RS udio e sion 4.4.1 in o de o apply
his me hod.
3.2. Bayesian Va iable Selec ion (BASAD) Model
As p oposed, addi ionally, we used he “basad” package in RS udio o selec he
a iables wi h highe pos e io inclusion p obabili ies, in luencing he dependen a iables
o his s udy. This me hod was i s in oduced by Na ise y and He (2014), which was
la e implemen ed in R p og amming by Xiang and Na ise y (2022). I also esul s in he
same pe o mance as he BART model by combining adap i e sampling wi h a Bayesian
amewo k. This me hod can be compu a ionally in ensi e when he model space is
la ge and sensi i e o he choice o p io s. Ne e heless, i is a use ul ool wi h which o
de e mine he mos ele an a iables whe e he e is unce ain y abou he model s uc u e
o pa ame e s. Since bo h BART and BASAD ha e hei own weaknesses and s eng hs, his
s udy will adop a mix-o de selec ion app oach u ilizing hese wo me hods in choosing
he mos in luen ial inpu a iables, in addi ion o MP and FP ools.
3.3. Time-Va ying Coe icien s Seemingly Un ela ed Equa ion (TVSURE) Model
Seemingly un ela ed equa ions (SURE) models de eloped by Zellne (1962) a e ex en-
sions o linea eg essions o a mul i-equa ion amewo k. In his s udy, a TVSURE wi h
wo equa ions model was employed ollowing Casas and Fe nandez-Casal (2022). This
model w aps ime- a ying o dina y leas squa es ( OLS) and ime- a ying gene alized
leas squa es ( GLS) o es ima e he coe icien s o TVSURE. One o he ad an ages o his
model is ha i can es ima e each equa ion independen ly, assuming no c oss-equa ion
e o co ela ions. In ou SURE model, he ollowing wo equa ions we e included:
lgdp =α10 +α11lm2 +α12lpi s +α13lin +α14lusd obah +α15lunemp +ε1 (1)
lgdp =α20 +α21lgo e +α22lgo exp +α23lgo deb +α24lunemp +ε2 (2)
whe e lgdp = he loga i hm o he GDP g ow h a e, lm2 = he loga i hm o he money
supply (m2), lpi s = he loga i hm o he policy in e es a es, lin = he loga i hm o he
consume p ice in la ion, lusd obah = he loga i hm o he exchange a e (US dolla agains
Thai bah ), and lunemp = he loga i hm o he unemploymen a e ( a iable selec ed by he
mix-o de a iable selec ion app oach).
In his model we applied, he ime- a ying a iance–co a iance ma ix o wo o mo e
se ies is es ima ed nonpa ame ically using he ‘ Reg’ package. E(
γi ,γi′ ′)=σii′
when
Economies 2025,13, 19 7 o 17
= ’, and ze o o he wise. This allows he a iance–co a iance ma ix o be ime- a ying
wi h he ollowing exp ession a any gi en ime (qua e ):
Σ =






σ11
σN1
.
.
.
σN1
σ12
σ22
...
σN2
· · ·
· · ·
· · ·
σ1N
σ2N
.
.
.
σNN






(3)
Since he ma ix is assumed o be locally s a iona y, i s linea es ima o is de ined by
he ollowing:
ech∼
Στ=
T
∑
=1
ech(γτ
γ )Kh( −τ)s2−s1(τ− )
s0s2−s2
1
(4)
whe e
sj=∑T
=1τ− )jKb(τ− )
o j = 0, 1, 2;
Kb(·)
is a symme ic ke nel unc ion ha
assigns a highe weigh o alues close o he ocal poin (
τ
= /T); and b is he bandwid h
pa ame e . A single bandwid h is used ac oss all co-mo emen s, ensu ing ha
∼
Στ
emains
posi i e-de ini e.
3.4. Ma ko Swi ching Reg ession (MSR) Model
In o de o suppo he indings om he TVSURE model, we u he conduc ed a
egime-swi ching analysis ha was i s p oposed by Gold eld and Quand (1973) and
Hamil on (1989), and u he ound in Pe lin (2015). Following Sanchez-Espiga es and
Lopez-Mo eno (2022), we used he ‘MSwM’ package in RS udio o es ima e he egime
shi ing ela ionships be ween policies and g ow h. Le he Ma ko swi ching eg ession
(MSR) model wi h wo egimes be exp essed as ollows:
γ1, =β1,1 ∗x1, +β1,2 ∗x2, +· · · +β1,i ∗xi, +ϵ1, (5)
γ2, =β2,1 ∗x1, +β2,2 ∗x2, +· · · +β2,i ∗xi, +ϵ2, (6)
wi h
ϵ1, ∼N0, σ2
1, 1(7)
ϵ2, ∼N0, σ2
2, 2(8)
Co a iance(ϵ1, ,ϵ2, )=0 (9)
whe e
γ1, and γ2,
ep esen dependen a iables,
xi,
ep esen s all inpu p edic o s o
independen a iables,
βi
ep esen s he mean o he pa ame e s o be es ima ed,
σ1
,
σ2
a e
esiduals o egime 1 and egime 2, and ϵ1, ,ϵ2, a e he e o e ms.
4. Da a and Empi ical Resul s
4.1. Da a Desc ip i e
The s udy used he seconda y qua e ly ime se ies da a as ob ained om he CEIC
da abase h ough he Chiang Mai Uni e si y Ne wo k o he pe iods o Q1:2003 o Q2:2024.
The analysis ocused on economic g ow h measu ed as GDP g ow h as he dependen a i-
able and included a ange o independen a iables a anged by he policy domain. B oad
money, he policy in e es a e, he in la ion a e, and he exchange a e we e conside ed as
MP ools while go e nmen e enue, expendi u e, and deb we e aken as FP ools. In e -
media e ac o s we e also conside ed as hey ha e po en ial indi ec and di ec e ec s on
he economic g ow h o Thailand; hese a e consume con idence in he p esen and u u e,
gold p ice, diesel p ice, gasoline 95 p ice, impo s, expo s, household deb , unemploymen
Economies 2025,13, 19 8 o 17
a e, o eign di ec in es men , elec ici y gene a ion, and a dummy a iable o accoun o
he economic impac o he 2008 inancial c isis and he ecen COVID-19 pandemic. The
selec ion o policy a iables in his s udy is d i en by he exis ing li e a u e emphasizing
hei heo e ical ele ance and empi ical signi icance in mac oeconomic esea ch. Va iables
such as he consume con idence index (p esen and u u e) we e included o accoun o
household and business expec a ions while he gold p ice se es as a p oxy o inancial
s abili y and in la iona y ends. Impo s and expo s measu e ade openness and ex e nal
demand, while diesel and gasoline p ices ep esen inpu cos s in luencing p oduc ion and
in la ion. Va iables such as household deb , unemploymen , FDI, and elec ici y gene a ion
we e included as hey e lec domes ic c edi condi ions, labo ma ke dynamics, in es -
men g ow h, and indus ial ac i i ies, espec i ely. A dummy a iable o ex e nal shocks
accoun s o majo dis up ions including he 2008 inancial c isis and COVID-19 pandemic.
Howe e , he inal inpu p edic o s in addi ion o he co e MP and FP a iables we e
de e mined by using a mix-o de a iable selec ion app oach based on Bayesian a iable
selec ion me hods. A b ie summa y o each a iable co e ing i s da a sou ce, symbol, and
uni o measu emen is p o ided in Table A1 (Appendix A). Table 1p o ides summa y
s a is ics o a iables. Mos key a iables a e no mally dis ibu ed andom numbe s om
he Ja que–Be a es .
Table 1. Summa y s a is ics o a iables.
Va iable Mean Median
Maximum
S d. De .
Skewness
Ku osis Ja que-Be a
P obabili y
GDPR 3.104535 3.330000 15.37000 3.7072711 −
0.664509
6.889547 60.53995 0.000000
M2 461,919.9 494,137.5 764,771.3 190,260 −
0.069521
1.713010 6.004507 0.050204
PIRS 2.037442 1.710000 5.00000 1.086429 0.853642 3.342133 10.86422 10.86422
INF 94.06686 95.18500 104.7100 6.854254 −
0.254482
1.812263 6.983317 0.050205
USDTOBAHT 34.25605 33.37000 42.75000 29.81000 0.863062 2.896293 10.71510 0.004712
GOVREV 5171.011 5424.320 8502.670 1758.804 −
0.186334
2.107033 3.354971 0.186843
GOVEXP 15,342.19 16,721.17 24,405.23 5861.325 −
0.376450
1.894641 6.409423 0.040571
GOVDEBT 129,198.2 119,179.3 278,724.1 73,986.53 0.691077 2.350258 8.358168 0.015313
HHDEBT 70.62814 79.98000 95.51000 18.49546 −
0.335635
1.524223 9.418872 0.009010
CCIP 59.44593 59.03500 98.7000 17.41705 0.069541 2.604494 0.6294494 0.729848
CCIF 79.66221 81.75000 113.37000 13.57932 −
0.485427
3.424758 4.02400 0.133721
GOLDPR 580.4464 600.4900 1106.380 235.4623 −
0.170788
2.172168 2.873760 0.237668
DIESELPR 0.782558 0.845000 1.120000 0.195918 −
0.929205
3.070649 12.39361 0.002036
GASOLINEPR 1.073256 1.120000 1.610000 0.321780 −
0.480058
2.534044 4.081194 0.129951
IMPORT 60.63372 61.62500 76.82000 7.265874 −
0.077723
2.603427 0.650138 0.722478
EXPORT 65.69779 66.69500 78.38000 5.293297 −
0.973120
5.157833 30.25801 0.00000
UNEMP 1.271512 1.125000 2.87000 0.523930 1.105516 3.854745 20.13565 0.000042
FDI 2.422791 2.840000 6.4700000 2.245742 −
1.733698
8.868026 166.4693 0.00000
ECG 44,515.54 45,333.56 63,721.96 8407.443 −
0.098914
2.018411 3.592838 0.165892
EXTS 0.220930 0.00000 1.00000 0.417307 1.34524 2.809898 26.07137 0.000002
Sou ce: au ho s’ own es ima ion.
4.2. Va iables Selec ion by Using BART, BASAD, and Mix-O de App oaches
Acco ding o he li e a u e, he e a e many ac o s di ec ly and indi ec ly a ec ing
economic g ow h, bu he e is unce ain y abou ac o s a signi ican le els o speci ic ime
pe iods. We, he e o e, i s used he Bayesian addic i e eg ession ees (BART) me hod o
ind which o he inpu con ol a iables mos signi ican ly in luenced g ow h in Thailand
du ing he s udied pe iods. Secondly, we applied he Bayesian a iable selec ion wi h
adap i e me hod (BASAD) o enhance he a iable selec ion, and, inally, conduc ed a mix-
o de selec ion u ilizing BART and BASAD. Bo h me hods a e based on pos e io inclusion
p obabili ies o inpu p edic o s ha explain he dependen a iable o he s udy. In his
way, we can assu e a good a iable selec ion app oach be o e p oceeding wi h he inal
es ima ion. In Table 2, he a iables a e shown in he o de o hei inclusion p obabili ies,
Economies 2025,13, 19 15 o 17
Appendix A
Table A1. Sou ce o da a, symbol, and uni o measu emen o a iables used in his s udy.
Va iables Symbol Uni Sou ce
Real G oss Domes ic P oduc G ow h GDPR % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
(accessed on 2 Decembe 2024)
Money Supply, M2 (B oad Money) M2 US dolla million CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Policy In e es Ra e PIRS % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
In la ion, Consume P ice Index INF 2019 = 100 CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Exchange Ra e (1 US dolla o Bah ) USDTOBAHT Bah pe USD CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Go e nmen Re enue GOVREV US dolla million CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Go e nmen Expendi u e GOVEXP US dolla million CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Go e nmen Deb GOVDEBT US dolla million CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Consume Con idence Index: P esen CCIP Poin CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Consume Con idence Index: Fu u e CCIF Poin CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Gold P ice, 99.99% pu e s anda d GOLDPR US dolla CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Diesel P ice, base wholesale alue DIESELPR US dolla CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Gasoline 95 p ice, base e ail alue GASOLINEPR US dolla CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Impo s % o Nominal GDP IMPORT % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Expo s % o Nominal GDP EXPORT % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Household Deb % o Nominal GDP HHDEBT % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Unemploymen Ra e UNEMP % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
FDI % o Nominal GDP FDI % CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Elec ici y Gene a ion o al Gwh ECG Gwh CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
Ex e nal Shocks Dummy Va iable aEXTS 0 and 1 CEIC, h ps://www.ceicda a.com
No e:
a
indica es he p esence and absence o ex e nal shock e en s, whe eas 0 indica es absen pe iods wi h no
inancial c isis and COVID-19 pandemic, and 1 indica es p esen pe iods o inancial c isis which occu ed in
Q1:2007 and Q4:2008 wo ldwide and COVID-19 impac be ween Q1:2020 and Q4:2021.
Table A2. Regime-swi ching ela ionships be ween iscal policy and economic g ow h in Thailand.
Va iable
High-G ow h Regime Slow-G ow h Regime
Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value
In e cep 7.1710 4.9724 1.4422 0.1492 3.4056 1.1901 2.8616 0.004 **
Log (Go e ) 0.4867 1.0815 0.4500 0.6527 −0.4190 0.1972 −2.1247 0.033 *
Log (Go exp) −1.0422 2.6324 −0.3959 0.6922 1.3432 0.2723 4.9328 0.00 ***
Log (Go deb ) −0.0134 1.5557 −0.0086 0.9931 −0.9901 0.1422 −6.9627 0.00 ***
Log (Unemp) −0.0228 0.7916 −0.0288 0.9770 0.8976 0.1568 5.7245 0.00 ***
Residual 0.82 0.17
No es: * s a is ically signi ican ; ** s ongly signi ican ; and *** highly signi ican .
Table A3. Regime-swi ching ela ionships be ween mone a y policy and economic g ow h in Thailand.
Va iable High-G ow h Regime Slow-G ow h Regime
Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value
In e cep 49.3401 32.0146 1.5412 0.1233 32.3281 1.3251 24.3967 0.00 ***
Log (M2) −0.9626 3.0892 −0.3116 0.7553 1.7602 0.0823 21.3876 0.00 ***
Log (Pi s) −0.8359 0.8221 −1.0168 0.3092 −0.2371 0.0799 −2.9675 0.003 **
Log (In ) −5.9509 16.3619 −0.3637 0.7161 −12.9511 0.2360 −54.8775 0.00 ***
Log (Usd obah ) −2.3175 5.7257 −0.3637 0.7161 1.4545 0.3478 4.1820 0.00 ***
Log (Unemp) −0.4771 1.1489 −0.4153 0.6779 0.3199 0.1571 2.0363 0.041 *
Residual 0.86 0.22
No es: * s a is ically signi ican ; ** s ongly signi ican ; and *** highly signi ican .

Economies 2025,13, 19 16 o 17
Table A4. Regime-swi ching ela ionships be ween mone a y and iscal policies and economic g ow h
in Thailand.
Va iable High-G ow h Regime Slow-G ow h Regime
Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value Es ima e S d. E o T-Value p-Value
In e cep 153.2249 19.1336 8.0082 0.00 *** 12.4480 1.6729 7.4410 0.00 ***
Log (Go e ) 0.6956 1.2370 0.5623 0.5739 0.0718 0.1951 0.3680 0.7128
Log (Go exp) −0.4243 3.3246 −0.1276 0.8984 −0.0622 0.2800 −0.2221 0.8242
Log (Go deb ) 7.5714 2.1502 3.5213 0.00 *** −1.3462 0.1217 −11.0616 0.00 ***
Log (M2) −6.7573 3.0856 −2.1899 0.028 * 3.0902 0.1029 30.0311 0.00 ***
Log (Pi s) −0.0336 0.7302 −0.0460 0.9633 −0.1281 0.0703 −1.8222 0.0684
Log (In ) −29.6392 10.1052 −2.9331 0.003 ** −9.6450 0.2771 −34.8069 0.00 ***
Log (Usd obah ) −5.6265 1.8111 −3.1067 0.001 ** 2.3378 0.3594 6.5047 0.00 ***
Log (Unemp) −1.0373 1.1267 −0.9207 0.3572 0.4934 0.1594 3.0954 0.001 **
Residual 0.75 0.17
No es: * s a is ically signi ican ; ** s ongly signi ican ; and *** highly signi ican .
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