Mo gens e n, Sand a
A icle — Published Ve sion
The ole o sende c edibili y in mig a ion in o ma ion
campaigns
In e na ional Mig a ion
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
John Wiley & Sons
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Mo gens e n, Sand a (2025) : The ole o sende c edibili y in mig a ion
in o ma ion campaigns, In e na ional Mig a ion, ISSN 1468-2435, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, Vol. 63, Iss. 1,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/imig.13383
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1 o 17
h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/imig.13383
wileyonlinelib a y.com/jou nal/imig
Recei ed: 25 Ap il 2024
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Re ised: 10 No embe 2024
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Accep ed: 2 Janua y 2025
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13383
SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE
The ole o sende c edibili y in mig a ion
in o ma ion campaigns
Sand a Mo gens e n
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and
ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed.
© 2025 The Au ho (s). In e na ional Mig a ion published by John Wiley & Sons L d on behal o In e na ional O ganiza ion o
Mig a ion.
MZES Uni e si y o Mannheim, Mannheim,
Ge many
Co espondence
Sand a Mo gens e n, Uni e si y o
Mannheim, Mannheime Zen um ü
Eu opäische Sozial o schung (MZES),
Mannheim, Ge many.
Email: sand a.n.mo gens e [email protected]
Funding in o ma ion
Clus e o Excellence “The Poli ics o
Inequali y” Uni e si y o Kons anz
Abs ac
The ac o s who ca y ou mig a ion in o ma ion
campaigns—and hus se e as ‘in o ma ion sende s’— a y
g ea ly. Exis ing s udies on he e ec i eness o such
campaigns ypically ocus on one case o an in o ma ion
campaign. I is di icul o compa e hese case s udies
because, in addi ion o he di e en implemen ing ac o s,
hey di e subs an ially in e ms o he con en con eyed
and he ways hey a e ca ied ou . As a esul , e idence o
he causal e ec o he in o ma ion sende s is missing. I
a gue ha who implemen s he campaign is no i ial, as
each ype o in o ma ion sende may be associa ed wi h a
di e en le el o c edibili y, and psychological models o
in o ma ion p ocessing sugges ha a sende s' c edibili y
is key o he impac o in o ma ion. To co obo a e and
complemen exis ing esea ch, I p esen indings om
a longi udinal su ey expe imen in Nige ia among
s uden s who we e p esen ed wi h he same hypo he ical
in o ma ion campaign while he in o ma ion sende was
a ied: each an in e na ional and local NGO, go e nmen
and social con ac . The esul s show o e all simila e ec
di ec ions o he di e en in o ma ion sende s, namely an
inc ease in awa eness o he campaign opic o i egula
mig a ion and a educ ion o (i egula ) mig a ion in en ions
among he pa icipan s. Howe e , no able di e ences a e
obse ed in e ec size and e ec pe sis ence pe sende
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MORGENSTERN
INTRODUCTION
I is a s ylised ac ha social capi al and mig a ion ne wo ks a e c ucial de e minan s o mig a ion beha iou
(Cas les e al., 2014; Lubbe s e al., 2020; Massey, 1999). One main eason o his is hei p o ision o ele an
in o ma ion (i.a. Bo jas, 1992). The policy o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns aims o ha ness hese in o ma ion
e ec s o ackle i egula mig a ion.1 Thei decla ed aim is o sp ead in o ma ion abou mig a ion and comba
misin o ma ion (Eu opean Commission, 2015). The campaigns a e implemen ed in places wi h high le els o i eg-
ula mig a ion o Eu ope bu no o igin- based legal claim o asylum. Al hough go e nmen s mos o en und hese
campaigns, he e is a wide a ie y o implemen e s (Tjaden e al., 2018). The mos common implemen e s a e go -
e nmen s hemsel es, NGOs and social con ac s. Hence, om he audience's pe spec i e he pe cei ed sou ce o
in o ma ion a ies be ween hese implemen ing sende ypes. Mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns a e an exempla y
case o s udying in o ma ion- sende e ec s as he audience does no ‘ga he ’ he in o ma ion hemsel es bu
ecei es i ega dless o hei ecep i e mo i a ion.
E idence on he e ec i eness o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns is sca ce and o en con adic o y. Non-
empi ical esea ch li e a u e doub s he e ec i eness o his policy ool due o an expec ed lack o us in he
sou ce o in o ma ion (Schans & Op ekamp, 2016). Recen empi ical es ing s udies show ha mig a ion in o -
ma ion campaigns ha e a di ec impac on mig a ion in en ions o he audience wi h NGOs (Mo gens e n, 2024),
IGOs (Dennison, 2022) and mig an s as sende s (Dunsch e al., 2019), while o he s e eal a limi ed e ec i eness
among he campaign- a ge ed socie y (Caso & Ca ling, 2024). Despi e sugges ing ha e ec i eness a ies by
sende ype, exis ing s udies lack compa abili y be ween he e ec s o sende ypes and do no e lec he di e -
si y o sende s. Wi h he aim o complemen ing exis ing esea ch, I empi ically in es iga e he mode a ing ole o
he sende - ype in dep h, keeping o he campaign- componen s, such as message o audience, cons an . Using a
su ey expe imen al design, he s udy loses gene alisabili y compa ed o p e ious ield expe imen al s udies due
o i s su ey- a i iciali y bu gains in ex ac ing he sende e ec and, hence, in e nal alidi y.
The cen al ela ionship unde in es iga ion is be ween sys ema ically deli e ed in o ma ion and i s impac
on he ecipien ega ding issue awa eness and beha iou al in en ion o mig a e. I a gue ha his ela ionship is
mode a ed by he ype o sende pe cei ed as he sou ce o in o ma ion. Acco ding o he social psychological
li e a u e, he de aul mode o in o ma ion p ocessing is supe icial and, he e o e, highly in luenced by pe iph-
e al cues (Chaiken & T ope, 1999; Pe y & Cacioppo, 1986). As his is he case when in o ma ion is p o ided by
an ex e nal sou ce, such as in mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns, he cue sen by he sende ype is expec ed o
wo k as a heu is ic o signalling mechanism o i s adequacy o p ocessing, which can hen be obse ed in he
le el o change in he ecipien 's awa eness o in en ions ollowing he in o ma ion. In line wi h he communica-
ion esea ch li e a u e, he e ec s should be mos du able wi h epea ed in o ma ion exposu e (Lechele & de
V eese, 2013; Oxley, 2020).
I expec ha he mechanism behind his ela ionship, i.e., he in luence o he sende ype in an in o ma ion
campaign se ing on issue awa eness and beha iou al in en ion o mig a e, can be aced back o di e en c ed-
ibili y le els he audience associa es wi h each sende ype. Associa ed c edibili y wi h an (in e - )na ional NGO,
go e nmen and social con ac is, howe e , a highly subjec i e endea ou . Based on he li e a u e, one could y
and opposing ac o s a e mos in luen ial ega ding gene al
e sus i egula mig a ion. Desc ip i e media ion analyses
suppo he ele ance o c edibili y pe sende and imply
he exis ence o a opic- dependen sende c edibili y
e ec .
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SENDER CREDIBILITY IN INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS
o make ini ial assump ions, o example in e ms o highe /lowe c edibili y o local sende , bu his does no do
jus ice o he subjec i i y on he indi idual no he g oup le el. To include his subjec i e judgemen and he e o e
keep he le el o expe imen al a i iciali y low, I examine his mechanism only in a non- causal explo a o y manne .
The online su ey expe imen is conduc ed in Benin Ci y, Nige ia, and consis s o h ee su ey wa es o e
a h ee- week pe iod. Abou 600 s uden s (N) pa icipa e in wa e 1, wi h a signi ican —bu no sys ema ic—a -
i ion, abou 150 s uden s con inue in wa es 2 and 3. The s udy ocuses on he ea men implemen ed in he
i s wa e: he ype o sende o a hypo he ical in o ma ion campaign is a ied be ween NGOs, go e nmen s and
social con ac s, each being local o in e na ional. Thus, he ea men consis s o six ea men a ms, i.e., he six
di e en in o ma ion sende s. The s udies' es ed sende e ec is hence causal, while he p esumed mechanism
ia associa ed c edibili y le el will be desc ip i e in na u e. The s udy ollows a causally iden i ied ye explo a o y
s udy design.
Benin Ci y, Nige ia, was selec ed as a case s udy o wo easons. Fi s , Benin Ci y plays an exempla y ole as a
‘mig a ion hub’ (Obi e al., 2019). In an en i onmen wi h high luc ua ions o people a i ing and lea ing, egula ly
o i egula ly, he e is a high ma ke o in o ma ion abou mig a ion, bu also a high luc ua ion o misin o ma ion.
Especially in a less egula ed en i onmen , such as he p esen one, he high luc ua ion o (mis)in o ma ion causes
di e en in o ma ion channels o compe e. The e o e, he sou ce o in o ma ion becomes all he mo e c i ical.
Second, om he pe spec i e o Eu opean go e nmen s, Nige ia is one o he mos equen ly chosen places o
mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns. This is because Nige ia is classi ied as a ‘sa e place’, and Nige ians ha e ep e-
sen ed he highes na ional p opo ion o i egula mig an s om Wes A ica o Eu ope in he las hal - decade
(Wo ld Bank—coun y da a), making Nige ia a ypical coun y o his policy implemen a ion.
THEORY
This s udy is based on he undamen al p emise ha in o ma ion abou a gi en opic a ec s he le el o awa eness
among he audience and in luences hei in en ional beha iou wi h ega d o ha opic. One equen ly deba ed
opic in he con ex o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns is he ques ion o whe he he con eyed in o ma ion
could aim o co ec a lack o in o ma ion o misin o ma ion. This issue has been discussed by se e al schola s,
including Nieuwenhuys and Pecoud (2007), Oeppen (2016), and Schans and Op ekamp (2016). The empi ical
e idence is inconclusi e (Gilbe & Kose , 2006; Schapendonk, 2015). In his s udy, i is assumed ha , al hough
he le el o p e ious knowledge may a y among indi iduals, comp ehensi e in o ma ion is implausible, and a
campaign may deli e new o e ised in o ma ion o a ying deg ees. Mo eo e , acco ding o p io empi ical
esea ch, i is an icipa ed ha he in o ma ion p o ided by a mig a ion in o ma ion campaign will posi i ely impac
opic awa eness, bu ha e a nega i e impac on beha iou al in en ions o mig a e i egula ly (Dunsch e al., 2019;
Mo gens e n, 2020). This is because he campaign ocuses on he challenges o i egula mig a ion, and his
addi ional cos inducemen may educe aspi a ions (Ca ling, 2002; Massey, 1999).
The ela ionship be ween sys ema ic in o ma ion abou i egula mig a ion and i s impac on he ecipien
can be mode a ed by se e al ac o s, including he sou ce o he in o ma ion. A highe likelihood o mode a ion
is mainly when he in o ma ion is no ga he ed by he indi idual in ques ion bu deli e ed om ou side, as in
mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns (Mo gens e n, 2024). This absence o indi idual ac ion is also desc ibed as he
de aul mode o in o ma ion p ocessing and is unde s ood o be p ima ily supe icial (Ma cus, 2000). The su-
pe icial p ocessing pa h acili a es he applica ion o heu is ics and cue signals (Chaiken & T ope, 1999; Pe y &
Cacioppo, 1986). S udies ha e shown ha heu is ic p ocessing can be as e ec i e as deep p ocessing, bu mo e
e icien , pa icula ly gi en he di icul y in assessing he e aci y o new in o ma ion (Lupia, 1994).
The impac o in o ma ion sou ces on p ocessing has been demons a ed ac oss a ious con ex s, includ-
ing ex e nally p o ided and sel - ga he ed in o ma ion (DeBono & Ha nish, 1988; James & Van Ryzin, 2017;
Malho a & Kuo, 2008). In mig a ion esea ch, he link is p ima ily es ablished o he la e . In his con ex ,
4 o 17
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MORGENSTERN
in o ma ion ob ained h ough in e na ional social con ac s has he mos signi ican in luence on mig a ion
in en ions in gene al, while local social ne wo ks a e shown o be o pa icula impo ance in he case o
i egula mig a ion (Cas les e al., 2014; F ouws e al., 2016). In a ecen e iew, Williams e al. (2020) demon-
s a e how p ospec i e mig an s employ a ange o in o ma ion sou ces s a egically ailo ed o hei pa icula
equi emen s.
Mechanism: c edibili y pe sende ype
The easoning behind a ia ion in he impac o di e en sende s o in o ma ion is gene ally a ibu ed o di e en
le els o c edibili y o he sou ce, i.e., he sende o in o ma ion and hence he in o ma ion i sel . Applying
in o ma ion p ocessing pa hs o heu is ics and cue signals (Chaiken & T ope, 1999; Pe y & Cacioppo, 1986),
in o ma ion con eyed by c edible sou ces is pe cei ed as mo e c edible in o ma ion and iden i ied as wo hy o
p ocessing, whe eas in o ma ion om less c edible sou ces is ega ded as less c edible in o ma ion and o lesse
alue. The concep o c edibili y comp ises h ee key aspec s used o e alua e he sende o in o ma ion and he
in o ma ion i sel (B inol & Pe y, 2009; McC oskey & Te en, 1999): expe ise (a), us wo hiness (b) and goodwill
(c). This s udy examines how he impac o in o ma ion a ies acco ding o he sende ype in an explo a o y
manne , as he concep o c edibili y and he di e en sub- componen s a e di icul o assign o he di e en
sende ypes om he pe spec i e o he audience.
The concep o expe ise (a) implies he capaci y o p o ide alid in o ma ion. O ganisa ions wi h a mo e
ins i u ionalised s uc u e, such as go e nmen o non- go e nmen al o ganisa ions (NGOs), may be pe cei ed
by he audience as mo e knowledgeable due o hei abili y o d aw on he expe iences o nume ous indi iduals.
In con as , social con ac s may be pe cei ed as mo e knowledgeable because hey possess expe ise based on
li ed expe ience, ei he hei own expe ience (in e na ional social con ac ) o ha o a close pe son. The aspec
o us wo hiness (b) pe ains o he mo i a ion o p o ide accu a e in o ma ion in gene al. In he ligh o he as-
sump ion ha des ina ion coun ies may be in e es ed in educing i egula mig a ion, i is easonable o posi ha
in e na ional go e nmen s and po en ially e en in e na ional NGOs may ha e di e gen in e es s, which could
esul in lowe le els o us wo hiness being a ibu ed o hem. Goodwill (c) deno es he in en ion o p o ide
he ecipien wi h accu a e in o ma ion. Al hough he i s wo componen s may be subjec o objec i e classi ica-
ion and exhibi some deg ee o c oss- cul u al consis ency (F ei ag & Baue , 2013; Pu nam, 2000; Uslane , 2018),
he componen o goodwill is cha ac e ised by a clea dyadic dependency be ween he sende and he ecei e ,
unde sco ing he subjec i e na u e o he p ocess. Hence, he pe cep ion o he sende s by he audience is highly
subjec i e and di icul o asce ain om exis ing li e a u e, making i an unsui able basis o de eloping di e en-
ia ed hypo heses on he ex en o a ia ion ha is expec ed. In ague e ms, howe e , i can be o mula ed ha
1. di e en sende ypes a e expec ed o ha e di e en e ec s on issue awa eness and beha iou al in en-
ion o mig a e, and
2. he le el o c edibili y associa ed wi h he sende ype is he eason o he ela ionship be ween sende ype
and issue awa eness/beha iou al in en ion o mig a e.
This p oposed mode a ing e ec o he assigned c edibili y pe sende ype is he a gumen used in some
o he li e a u e o explain why in o ma ion campaigns a e unable o in luence mig a ion: a lack o us in he
sou ce o in o ma ion (Nieuwenhuys & Pecoud, 2007; Oeppen, 2016). The e idence on he impac o in o ma ion
campaigns is mixed. Some s udies (e.g., Mo gens e n, 2024) ha e iden i ied empi ical e idence o he impac o
mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns on he a i udes o in en ions o he a ge socie y. O he s udies (e.g., Caso &
Ca ling, 2024) ha e ound ha such campaigns exe limi ed in luence. The mechanism o a ia ion by sende ype
migh p o ide a esolu ion o his appa en con adic ion.
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SENDER CREDIBILITY IN INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS
Ano he a gumen om he li e a u e ha calls in o ques ion he impac o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns,
and which is equally applicable o in o ma ion campaigns mo e b oadly, is ha ex e nally p o ided in o ma ion has
only a sho - e m e ec in he o m o nudging (Da enpo e al., 2010; Ge be e al., 2011; Williamson e al., 2020).
In o de o gain a deepe unde s anding o his opic, I will examine he impac o he in o ma ion campaigns in
ques ion, bo h in e ms o he magni ude o he e ec and he pe sis ence o he e ec .
RESEARCH DESIGN
This s udy aims o shed ligh on he ole o he sende ype in a campaign se ing on opic awa eness and
subsequen beha iou al in en ions. To achie e high in e nal alidi y while keeping he condi ions as gene alisable
as possible, an online su ey expe imen is implemen ed among a ele an a ge g oup ollowing a lab- in- he-
ield expe imen al design. Analy ically, only he i s wa e, including baseline, ea men and endline, is used o
ex ac he e ec magni ude pe sende ype. The wo wa es o panel ollow- up su eys ac as i s insigh s in o
he pe sis ence o change, i.e., he e ec pe sis ence o e ime. The esea ch design ecei ed e hical app o al
om he e hics commi ee o he esea che s' uni e si y and om he Uni e si y o Benin Ci y, Nige ia, whe e he
s udy is implemen ed.
Se ing
In Nige ia, Benin Ci y is known as a mig a ion hub ac oss s a e bo de s. A mig a ion hub se ing is a loose cons uc .
In his s udy, I unde s and i as a se ing in which (a) mig a ion is an omnip esen issue wi h high mobili y among
he people, whe he h ough immig a ion, emig a ion, o bo h, whe he i egula o egula , and (b) a ious sou ces
o mig a ion- ela ed in o ma ion compe e wi h each o he . The la e c i e ion is gene ally mo e likely in a less
egula ed en i onmen , such as places wi h low go e nmen al es ic ions and conside able i egula emig a ion
mo emen . This is he case o Benin Ci y in Edo S a e, Nige ia. Due o i s ela i e ichness h ough oil esou ces,
mig a ion beha iou o and om Benin Ci y goes back in ime. In he las decade, Benin Ci y has become an
epicen e o i egula mig a ion.
In such a se ing, di e en sou ces o in o ma ion compe e wi h each o he , and ecei ing in o ma ion om
an ex e nal sou ce—ins ead o by sel - selec ion—is ine i able: he mos common in o ma ion sou ces a e social
con ac s (local ones and he in e na ional diaspo a), di e en o ganisa ions and b oke s (Ake e al., 2011), local
go e nmen s, and in e na ional go e nmen s such as he EU o Eu opean na ion s a es (Tjaden e al., 2018). Wi h
a high a ia ion in sende ypes p o iding sys ema ic o s a egic in o ma ion, he sou ce o in o ma ion becomes
e e mo e impo an . One eason o his inc eased sende - ype e ec is ha he le el o misin o ma ion na u ally
inc eases as mo e in o ma ion luc ua es. This en i onmen comes wi h a dec eased le el o gene alised us
among socie y and highe le els o scep icism (D aude e al., 2018), which is isualised by he ‘ci cle o us ’ in
Chabal and Daloz (1999). Empi ical e idence indica es de icien le els o gene alised us in sub- Saha an A ica
(Ingleha & Welzel, 2010; Ma es & Mo eno, 2018) and conside s i a po en ial elic om he A ican his o y o
sla e y (Nunn & Wan chekon, 2011).
Mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns a e an exempla y case o s udying he sende e ec s o in o ma ion
p o ision in a high mig a ion se ing, as he one desc ibed. Al hough gene ally unded by go e nmen s hem-
sel es, he campaign is hen implemen ed by di e en ac o s, such as NGOs, social con ac s and go e nmen s
hemsel es. Hence, he pe cei ed sou ce o in o ma ion a ies be ween hese sende s. Fo Eu opean na ional
go e nmen s i has become popula o in es in his policy di ec ion since he so- called mig a ion c isis in
2015. The decla ed aim o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns is o in o m audiences abou he issue o mig a ion
(Cle on & Schwei ze , 2021) as well as o comba he ci cula ing misin o ma ion dissemina ed by smuggling
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MORGENSTERN
o ganisa ions and o he s (Eu opean Commission, 2015). The campaigns a e implemen ed in places wi h high
le els o i egula mig a ion o Eu ope bu no o igin- based legal claim o asylum. A ypical coun y o his pol-
icy implemen a ion is Nige ia. Nige ians ha e ep esen ed he highes na ional p opo ion o i egula mig an s
om Wes A ica o Eu ope in he las hal - decade, he majo i y s a ing hei jou ney om he mig a ion hub,
Benin Ci y (Mo gens e n & S ijbis, 2024; The Wo ld Bank G oup, 2018). Acco ding o he s a is ics upon
a i al in Eu ope, mos mig an s a e young, male adul s, ha e a lowe - middle o middle- class socio- economic
s a us, and possess a school educa ion and o en a uni e si y deg ee (see UNHCR Ope a ional Po al); hey
a e hence de ined as he a ge g oup o his policy. The se ing esembles a ypical case o his policy imple-
men a ion ega ding coun y and ci y.
Sample
To ma ch he desc ibed a ge audience o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns, he sample popula ion unde s udy
comp ises young adul s in Benin Ci y, Nige ia. Mo e p ecisely, he s udy ocuses on uni e si y s uden s. Uni e si y
s uden s ul il he aspec s o a mos ypical case gi en he desc ip ion o he a ge g oup o hese campaigns wi h
ega d o age g oup, educa ion and p esumably social s a us, as only ce ain g oups o socie y in Nige ia manage
o a end uni e si y. Howe e , his social g oup is expec ed o s ill be on he uppe le el o he socio- economic
s a us o he o e all g oup o i egula mig an s o Eu ope.
T ea men speci ica ion and alloca ion
Simila o he ou pu o an in o ma ion campaign, he ea men consis s o a piece o in o ma ion (A) shown
o he pa icipan s and an indica ion o he sou ce o his in o ma ion (B). The sou ce a ies be ween h ee
ypes—NGOs, go e nmen s and social con ac s—each o which a e in e na ional o local ac o s. This esul s in
six dis inc sende ypes (3 ypes × 2 e sions, in e na ional and local). To gua d agains decep ion, pa icipan s
a e old ha he in o ma ion is simila o in o ma ion om a mig a ion in o ma ion campaign. The in o ma ion
piece (A) deals wi h he challenges o i egula mig a ion. The con en o he in o ma ion piece is based on a
p e ious s udy on i egula mig a ion among Nige ian s uden s. A sys ema ic compila ion o ex s om he
pa icipa ing s uden s in he con ol g oup (N = 916), who we e asked o w i e a le e o a iend, amily membe
o acquain ance abou i egula mig a ion, esul ed in i e main hemes ( isks on he jou ney, challenges a
des ina ion, decep ion, condi ions a home and legal ways) wi h 2–4 key sen ences pe heme. The piece o
in o ma ion is p esen ed as a lea le o he NGO and go e nmen sende ypes, and as a handw i en le e
when he in o ma ion sou ce is a social con ac ( o an exce p , see Appendix A in Da a S1). This dis inc ion in
he means o in o ma ion ansmission ensu es a ce ain deg ee o eali y. Howe e , i has he disad an age
o in oducing some noise in o he social con ac ea men , as we had o add mo e wo ds/sen ences o he
le e as compa ed o he con en o he lea le s. All lea le s a e iden ical excep o he sende indica ion; he
same applies o all le e s. The layou o he lea le s was designed based on inpu om a ious ac ual mig a ion
in o ma ion campaign lea le s.
The ype o sende (B) is communica ed clea ly and epea edly: be o e he in o ma ion piece, in he in o ma-
ion piece, i.e., on he on page o he lea le o in he i s line o he le e , and a e he in o ma ion piece. The
social con ac is limi ed o close con ac ia he salu a ion ‘Dea iend, dea amily’, in he in o ma ion piece. I is
assumed ha each o he six sende s has a di e en le el o c edibili y wi h he a ge g oup. A pos - ea men
measu e cap u es he c edibili y le el o he di e en sende ypes using a 10- i em scale ha cap u es all h ee
c edibili y subg oups.
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SENDER CREDIBILITY IN INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS
Ope a ionalisa ion o a iables o in e es
The cen al concep s o in e es a e awa eness and beha iou al in en ions ega ding mig a ion. As di ec ques ions
ha e he disad an age o being suscep ible o social desi abili y bias, he ques ions a e designed o be as indi ec
as possible. The au ho p e- es ed he ques ions in p e ious ieldwo k wi h Nige ian adolescen s. Awa eness is
measu ed by he ques ion asking how common i egula mig a ion is in he esponden 's socie y. A highe sco e
indica es a highe awa eness o he p e alence, in an en i onmen such as he one s udied.
In addi ion o he le el o awa eness, he in en ion o mig a e is measu ed. S uden s a e asked o indica e he
ex en o which hey in end o mig a e, bo h egula ly and i egula ly,2 on a 10- poin scale. Mig a ion in en ions
a e co ela ed wi h ac ual mig a ion lows, showing a highe numbe o in ending mig an s compa ed o he ac-
ual numbe o mig an s (O ega & Pe i, 2013). Recen s udies highligh he ele ance o immobile bu aspi ing
mig an s, p o iding an addi ional eason o s udy how in o ma ion can shape mig a ion aspi a ions (Ca ling &
Schewel, 2018).
S udy se up and design
The online su ey was se up ia he online su ey pla o m unipa k. S uden s ecei ed he s udy link and a
b ie desc ip ion o he s udy ia mobile phone SMS. The phone numbe s we e p o ided o he esea ch eam
con iden ially by he s uden egis y. The uni e si y adminis a ion p o ided a andom selec ion o s uden
phone numbe s om ac oss he uni e si y, i.e., om all p e- g adua e yea s and all coho s. As ag eed in he
e hical app o als wi h he au ho s' and he s udied uni e si y, only he numbe s we e passed on o he esea che
wi hou any addi ional in o ma ion. Pa icipan s ecei ed an incen i e o 500 nai a mobile ai ime a e each wa e
o he su ey in which hey pa icipa ed.
The s udy design consis ed o h ee wa es. In he i s wa e, p e- ea men co a ia es a e collec ed in a base-
line su ey, he sende - ype ea men wi h he in o ma ion piece is implemen ed, and he dependen a iables
a e hen collec ed in an endline es ima ion. One week la e , he second wa e consis s o a baseline o cap u e he
sho - e m pe sis ence e ec s o he i s ea men , a epea ed exposu e manipula ion, and again a measu e-
men o he dependen a iables in an endline su ey pa . In he hi d wa e, a e ano he week in be ween, only
he dependen a iable is measu ed o lea n abou he du a ion o he e ec . The o al ime ame is, he e o e,
3 weeks. Gi en he lack o epea ed exposu e and measu emen in quan i a i e ield s udies, i is di icul o
cha ac e ise his ime ame as ypical. Howe e , in e ms o p ac ical in en ions om a campaign unding o im-
plemen a ion pe spec i e, he 1 week in be ween and he 3- week o al ime ame could be seen as he absolu e
minimum o he desi ed e ec du a ion, meaning ha he smalles e ec s in an unin ended e ec di ec ion would
be ele an .
Desc ip i e insigh s: case se ing and sample
The sample s udied alls in o he ca ego y o con enience sample. We in i ed a andom sample o s uden s om
he s uden egis e and asked hem o dis ibu e he link o hei pee s a he uni e si y. A o al o 619 s uden s
pa icipa ed, o which 140 we e om he s uden egis e . The lack o andom selec ion o mos o he sample,
howe e , esul s in a lack o gene alisabili y and ca ies he isk o ob aining a sys ema ically sel - selec ed sample.
I expec ha he e is a high p obabili y o po en ial sys ema ic bias in he ollowing di ec ions: (a) people wi h an
in e es in he issue o mig a ion, (b) people wi h al uis ic alues who wan o ge in ol ed in suppo ing esea ch,
(c) people in inancial need (ai ime incen i e) and (d) people who a e gene ally less suspicious o ha e a highe
gene al le el o us . The i s and las elemen s a e pa icula ly ele an . The i s is because i is he a ge g oup
8 o 17
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MORGENSTERN
ha ac o s who p o ide in o ma ion on mig a ion wan o each. The la e is because a sample wi h a gene ally
highe le el o us is simila o a conse a i e measu emen scena io when s udying he mechanism ia sende
c edibili y. When in e p e ing he esul s, i is impo an o bea in mind he possible sel - selec ion o he sample
due o in e es in he opic and gullibili y.
The a e age s udy pa icipan is a ound 23 yea s old, male, s udies physical sciences a he Uni e si y o Benin
Ci y, and li es ou side campus (see Appendix C in Da a S1). P io o ea men , gene al awa eness o i egula mi-
g a ion is medium (6.86, scale 1–10). The in en ion o mig a e is gene ally high (7.74, scale 1–10), bu he in en ion
o mig a e i egula ly is much lowe (2.33, scale 1–10). Table 1 and he balance es s epo ed in he Appendix S1
show he ea men is e enly dis ibu ed wi hin each wa e. Addi ional analyses show no sys ema ic a i ion
based on he eco ded co a ia es, bu on he basis o he ini ial mig a ion in en ions. This sligh sys ema ic a i-
ion among he less in e es ed makes he sample mo e simila o he in ended a ge g oup o mig a ion in o ma-
ion campaigns.
RESULTS
The esul s a e p esen ed in ou pa s. I ocus i s on he di ec e ec o mig a ion in o ma ion by he di e en
sende ypes. Second he issue o du abili y is examined. Thus, he i s pa ocuses exclusi ely on da a om
Wa e 1, while he second pa includes he panel s uc u e. In he hi d pa , I u he explo e he mechanism
behind he sende - ype e ec ia he cons uc o sende c edibili y. Fou h and inally, I sum up he esul s and
discuss he ou comes, hei limi a ions and pa hs o u u e esea ch.
Di ec e ec s o sende ype
Be o e desc ibing he a ia ion by sende ype, I check o an o e all change p e- pos he in o ma ion
ea men , hence ‘ he campaign impac ’ ( esul s, see Table in Appendix S1). Compa ing he p e–pos - ea men
es ima es wi hin he i s wa e e eals a small bu insigni ican change ega ding awa eness le els. The lack
o signi icance migh be due o a lack o analy ical powe . Gene al mig a ion in en ions and i egula mig a ion
in en ions a e es ima ed wi h he ull sample size and e eal a small bu signi ican dec ease. The dec easing
p e–pos - ea men esul s o i egula mig a ion in en ions a e in line wi h empi ical e idence om p io
s udies on immedia e and di ec e ec s o mig a ion in o ma ion campaigns (Dennison, 2022; Dunsch
e al., 2019; Mo gens e n, 2024).
Table 2 demons a es ha he wi hin- subjec p e–pos - ea men compa ison e ec s a y by sende ype.
The awa eness es ima es a e a e age mean compa isons, since hey a e measu ed in a andom subg oup pe
wa e. This smalle sample size has implica ions o s a is ical powe , as shown in he a e signi icance. S ill, i is ob-
se able ha awa eness inc eases in he ea men g oup wi h local go e nmen s and dec eases wi h local social
TABLE 1 O e iew o ea men g oup dis ibu ion by ea men and wa e.
Sende ype/c edibili y To al
NGO I. NGO Go . I. Go . Soc. I. Soc. N
Wa e 1 99 104 100 105 102 109 619
Wa e 2 24 23 32 34 21 32 166
Wa e 3 19 18 28 25 20 27 137
Abb e ia ions: Go ., go e nmen ; I., in e na ional; no addi ional indica ion, local agen ; Soc., social con ac .
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SENDER CREDIBILITY IN INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS
PEER REVIEW
The pee e iew his o y o his a icle is a ailable a h p s : / / w w w . w e b o s c i e n c e . c o m / a p i / g a e w a y / w o s / p e e -
e i e w / 1 0 . 1 1 1 1 / i m i g . 1 3 3 8 3 .
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The da a ha suppo he indings o his s udy a e a ailable on eques om he co esponding au ho . The da a
a e no publicly a ailable due o p i acy o e hical es ic ions.
Endno es
1 In his a icle, I de ine i egula mig a ion om a go e nmen pe spec i e as i egula en y, i.e., en y wi hou he e-
qui ed legal documen s (e.g., isa), o en e e ed o as undocumen ed mig a ion.
2 The ac ual wo ding in he ques ionnai e is di e en . To educe any po en ially pe cei ed judgemen and align wi h cul-
u ally accep ed exp ession he wo ding ‘ h ough he backdoo ’ is used ins ead o ‘i egula ’ mig a ion.
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