ene gies
A icle
Elec ici y Gene a ion in India: P esen S a e, Fu u e
Ou look and Policy Implica ions
La i Shanlang Tiewsoh 1, Jakub Ji ásek 2,* and Ma in Si ek 1
1Depa men o Geological Enginee ing, Facul y o Mining and Geology, VŠB-Technical Uni e si y o
Os a a, 17. lis opadu 15/2172, 708 00 Os a a-Po uba, Czech Republic; [email p o ec ed] (L.S.T.);
[email p o ec ed] (M.S.)
2ENET Cen e, VŠB-Technical Uni e si y o Os a a, 17. lis opadu 15/2172,
708 00 Os a a-Po uba, Czech Republic
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Recei ed: 18 Feb ua y 2019; Accep ed: 30 Ma ch 2019; Published: 9 Ap il 2019

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Abs ac :
India is one o he as es de eloping coun ies in he wo ld. To sus ain his g ow h,
ene gy and elec ici y demands will inc ease. In 2015, o he 1337 TWh p oduced, 916 TWh we e
om ossil uels. We p epa ed se e al models o elec ici y demand om 2015 o 2030, based on
publicly a ailable da ase s and ends. Models we e es ed on da a om p e ious yea s and adjus ed
acco dingly. F om se e al scena ios, we decided o in oduce wo possibili ies, i.e., a scena io using
high ene gy sa ings in all sec o s, and a scena io coun ing on a high indus ial g ow h no suppo ed
by an equal inc ease o elec ici y sa ings. Fo bo h cases we p epa ed models o ex eme si ua ions:
(1) whe e coal- and ligni e-based powe plan s a e p e e ed a e slow-down o a enewable ene gy
boom, and (2) wi h high u iliza ion o enewable ene gy suppo ed by na u al gas and nuclea ene gy.
Wi h GDP and popula ion inc easing a he same a e as in p e ious yea s, he unambiguous esul in
all scena ios is a 2 o 3- old inc ease o he elec ici y demand by 2030. On he elec ici y p oduc ion
side, all scena ios s ess he ole o coal, enewables and nuclea sou ces. Bo h ene gy and clima e
policies should be p epa ed o such a de elopmen in ad ance.
Keywo ds: India; elec ici y; ene gy policy; sus ainable de elopmen
1. In oduc ion
Elec ici y in as uc u e and p oduc ion a e impo an o a de eloping economy like ha o
India, which wi h a popula ion o 1.2 billion and an a ea o 3.29 million km
2
, is he 7 h la ges coun y
in he wo ld. Wi h a GDP o US$ 2.3 illion in 2015 and an a e age GDP g ow h o 7% pe yea [
1
],
he g ow h o he elec ici y sec o will be impo an o sus ain he economic ou pu o he coun y.
To al elec ici y gene a ion in India du ing 2015 was 1300 TWh om bo h u ili ies and non-u ili ies [
2
].
In 2013, he elec ici y consump ion om all sec o s was 824 TWh [
3
], and wi h an a e age g ow h a e
o 9%, and i was es ima ed o be app oxima ely 980 TWh in 2015. The elec ical ne wo k su e s om
ansmission losses o app oxima ely 25%.
In 2015, pe capi a elec ici y consump ion was 746 kWh [
2
]. Since pe capi a elec ici y
consump ion has a posi i e ela ion wi h GDP pe capi a (e.g., [
4
–
6
]), i can be used as a s anda d
o judging he s age o economic de elopmen . Mos coun ies wi h a GDP pe capi a o mo e han
US$ 10,000 ha e an elec ici y consump ion o mo e han 4500 kWh pe capi a [
7
,
8
]. The e a e ew
excep ions o his case, depending on he s uc u e o he economy in ha coun y [
9
]. I can be
expec ed ha wi h he g ow h o he Indian economy, he GDP pe capi a will imp o e, and hence,
he e will be a need o mo e elec ici y in he u u e.
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361; doi:10.3390/en12071361 www.mdpi.com/jou nal/ene gies
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 2 o 14
In his ega d, o ecas ing he elec ici y demand is i al, as i can help he decision make s
o keep up wi h he pace o he g owing demands o he economy and o educe powe ou ages.
The long- ange ene gy al e na i e planning, e e ed o as LEAP [
10
], is a ool ha is used o o ecas
ene gy demand and supply om a ious scena ios and can also be used o clima e change mi iga ion
assessmen (see elec onic Suppleme a y Ma e ials). LEAP has been used o he Indian scena io o
di e en cases and le els. Kale and Poheka [
11
] s udied he demand and supply scena ios o he
s a e o Maha ash a, while he Indo-Ge man Cen e o Sus ainabili y published a documen ha used
LEAP o s udying he g eenhouse emissions o he coun y. LEAP was also used in o he coun ies
such as Panama whe e in es iga o s applied LEAP o p omo e wind powe o he Panama elec ici y
mix [
12
]. Addi ionally, in Taiwan, LEAP was u ilized o s udy he ene gy scena io whe e i s ene gy
equi emen s a e me mos ly by impo s [13].
This s udy will ocus on he elec ici y supply and demand in India. Access o he elec ici y,
which was 84.5% in 2016 [
14
], is no only a social, bu also a poli ical p oblem. Fo eseen 100%
elec i ica ion (demand side) will inc ease he s ess on he supply chain. I is no clea whe he he
Indian go e nmen will p e e an inc ease o domes ic ene gy/elec ici y sou ces, which would be
he mos p e e ed elec ici y mix, and how ha will comply wi h ecen de elopmen s and policy
ini ia i es o clima e change mi iga ion. In ou s udy, we would like o b ing a en ion o such c ucial
ques ions. By se o u u e elec ici y gene a ion mix models we ha e ied o show ou line o possible
u u e de elopmen s and basic p oblems hey migh b ing.
2. Elec ici y Gene a ion in India
Elec ici y p oduc ion in India is mos ly achie ed h ough coal he mal powe plan s (Figu e 1).
Al hough he e ha e been e o s o di e si y he op ions, pa icula ly in he case o enewable ene gies,
coal emains he dominan sou ce o elec ici y in he coun y. Since 2000, he sha e o elec ici y
p oduc ion om coal has been slowly inc easing; i was 68% a he s a o he millennium and has
inc eased o 73% in 2013. The pe cen ual sha es o all o he ene gy sou ces, excep enewables, ha e
dec eased du ing ha ime, [14].
In 2015, India gene a ed a o al o 1078 TWh om coal, na u al gas, oil, nuclea and hyd opowe
sou ces [
2
]. Renewable and al e na i e elec ici y in he o m o sola , wind, biomass and small
hyd opowe (less han 25 MW) plan s a e also making big p og ess. These ypes o elec ici y sou ce
we e es ima ed o gene a e app oxima ely 70 TWh o elec ici y in 2015. Non-u ili ies o independen
powe p oduce s ha e also been g owing a a a e o 9% o e he yea s [
3
], and i was es ima ed ha
hey p oduced app oxima ely 185 TWh in 2015. India also impo ed some elec ici y om Bhu an in
2015 (5 TWh) o sa is y i s demand.
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 o 14
long- ange ene gy al e na i e planning, e e ed o as LEAP [10], is a ool ha is used o o ecas
ene gy demand and supply om a ious scena ios and can also be used o clima e change mi iga ion
assessmen . LEAP has been used o he Indian scena io o di e en cases and le els. Kale and
Poheka [11] s udied he demand and supply scena ios o he s a e o Maha ash a, while he Indo-
Ge man Cen e o Sus ainabili y published a documen ha used LEAP o s udying he g eenhouse
emissions o he coun y. LEAP was also used in o he coun ies such as Panama whe e in es iga o s
applied LEAP o p omo e wind powe o he Panama elec ici y mix [12]. Addi ionally, in Taiwan,
LEAP was u ilized o s udy he ene gy scena io whe e i s ene gy equi emen s a e me mos ly by
impo s [13].
This s udy will ocus on he elec ici y supply and demand in India. Access o he elec ici y,
which was 84.5% in 2016 [14], is no only a social, bu also a poli ical p oblem. Fo eseen 100%
elec i ica ion (demand side) will inc ease he s ess on he supply chain. I is no clea whe he he
Indian go e nmen will p e e an inc ease o domes ic ene gy/elec ici y sou ces, which would be he
mos p e e ed elec ici y mix, and how ha will comply wi h ecen de elopmen s and policy
ini ia i es o clima e change mi iga ion. In ou s udy, we would like o b ing a en ion o such c ucial
ques ions. By se o u u e elec ici y gene a ion mix models we ha e ied o show ou line o possible
u u e de elopmen s and basic p oblems hey migh b ing.
2. Elec ici y gene a ion in India
Elec ici y p oduc ion in India is mos ly achie ed h ough coal he mal powe plan s (Figu e 1).
Al hough he e ha e been e o s o di e si y he op ions, pa icula ly in he case o enewable
ene gies, coal emains he dominan sou ce o elec ici y in he coun y. Since 2000, he sha e o
elec ici y p oduc ion om coal has been slowly inc easing; i was 68% a he s a o he millennium
and has inc eased o 73% in 2013. The pe cen ual sha es o all o he ene gy sou ces, excep
enewables, ha e dec eased du ing ha ime, [14].
In 2015, India gene a ed a o al o 1078 TWh om coal, na u al gas, oil, nuclea and hyd opowe
sou ces [2]. Renewable and al e na i e elec ici y in he o m o sola , wind, biomass and small
hyd opowe (less han 25 MW) plan s a e also making big p og ess. These ypes o elec ici y sou ce
we e es ima ed o gene a e app oxima ely 70 TWh o elec ici y in 2015. Non-u ili ies o independen
powe p oduce s ha e also been g owing a a a e o 9% o e he yea s [3], and i was es ima ed ha
hey p oduced app oxima ely 185 TWh in 2015. India also impo ed some elec ici y om Bhu an in
2015 (5 TWh) o sa is y i s demand.
Figu e 1. Elec ici y p oduc ion in India om di e en sou ces [14].
Figu e 1. Elec ici y p oduc ion in India om di e en sou ces [14].
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 3 o 14
As men ioned, he bulk o he p oduc ion comes om coal powe plan s ha p oduced 840 TWh
in 2015 (Figu e 2), which is 63% o he o al p oduc ion, ollowed by non-u ili ies (185 TWh) and
hyd opowe (125 TWh, excluding small hyd o). Nuclea , na u al gas, ligni e and oil also con ibu ed
38 TWh, 44 TWh, 34 TWh and 500 GWh, espec i ely, o elec ici y gene a ion. Renewable sou ces we e
es ima ed o con ibu e o 70 TWh o elec ici y in 2015. Cu en ly, mos o he enewable elec ici y
gene a ion is om wind ene gy (e.g., [
15
–
18
]) and small hyd opowe plan s (e.g., [
19
,
20
]). India is also
keen on de eloping i s enewable sou ces (e.g., [21–29]).
In India, coal sa is ies 70% o he o al demand ha is mos ly used in he powe sec o [
30
], and
wi h India ha ing he 5 h la ges coal ese es in he wo ld, i has p o en o be he mos economical
o m o ene gy and elec ici y in India. Conside ing an inc ease in coal p oduc ion o 5% each yea ,
he coal ese es a e expec ed o las o ano he 40–50 yea s [
31
]. The Wo ld Ins i u e o Sus ainable
Ene gy p epa ed a esea ch epo o coal elec ici y in India and p edic ed ha he o al coal powe
plan capaci y by he end o 2032 would be 400 TW i coal-based powe plan s a e a o ed o 220 TW i
enewable ene gy and gas a e a o ed [31].
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 o 14
Figu e 1. Elec ici y p oduc ion in India om di e en sou ces [14].
As men ioned, he bulk o he p oduc ion comes om coal powe plan s ha p oduced 840
TWh in 2015 (Figu e 2), which is 63% o he o al p oduc ion, ollowed by non-u ili ies (185 TWh)
and hyd opowe (125 TWh, excluding small hyd o). Nuclea , na u al gas, ligni e and oil also
con ibu ed 38 TWh, 44 TWh, 34 TWh and 500 GWh, espec i ely, o elec ici y gene a ion.
Renewable sou ces we e es ima ed o con ibu e o 70 TWh o elec ici y in 2015. Cu en ly, mos o
he enewable elec ici y gene a ion is om wind ene gy (e.g., [15–18]) and small hyd opowe plan s
(e.g., [19,20]). India is also keen on de eloping i s enewable sou ces (e.g., [21–29]).
In India, coal sa is ies 70% o he o al demand ha is mos ly used in he powe sec o [30], and
wi h India ha ing he 5 h la ges coal ese es in he wo ld, i has p o en o be he mos economical
o m o ene gy and elec ici y in India. Conside ing an inc ease in coal p oduc ion o 5% each yea ,
he coal ese es a e expec ed o las o ano he 40–50 yea s [31]. The Wo ld Ins i u e o Sus ainable
Ene gy p epa ed a esea ch epo o coal elec ici y in India and p edic ed ha he o al coal powe
plan capaci y by he end o 2032 would be 400 TW i coal-based powe plan s a e a o ed o 220 TW
i enewable ene gy and gas a e a o ed [31].
Figu e 2. Elec ici y mix in India 2015 [2].
Howe e , he oil supply si ua ion is no so a o able. A he cu en le els o p oduc ion, he
domes ic oil sou ces will las o ano he 23 yea s. Howe e , he elec ici y s uc u e as discussed
does no hea ily depend on oil. The sha e o na u al gas, howe e , has been slowly inc easing o e
he yea s due o he disco e y o new gas ields, he inco po a ion o coal bed me hane (CBM) and
go e nmen in e es in he explo a ion and p oduc ion o CBM [32].
U anium o es a e o e y low quali y in India (a e age g ade as low as 0.1%), which makes
p oduc ion and ex ac ion o indigenous o es 2–3 imes mo e cos ly compa ed o in e na ional
supplies [31]. The impo o u anium, howe e , is no an easy ask because in e na ional ade is
go e ned by he guidelines o he nuclea supplie s g oup (NSG), and he guidelines did no pe mi
he sale o u anium o India. Howe e , because o policy ini ia i es om India, NSG guidelines we e
elaxed in 2008 [33]. As a esul , India has impo ed u anium and used i o uel hei nuclea powe
plan s and his in u n imp o ed he capaci y ac o s o he powe plan s [34,35]. Despi e he
di icul ies wi h low quali y local supplies, India is p omo ing he use o nuclea ene gy o ene gy
secu i y as well as en i onmen al bene i s [36].
India is also ocusing g ea ly on enewable ene gy. I was es ima ed ha India can p oduce up
o an 84,000 MW capaci y o hyd oelec ici y a 60% load ac o s. The go e nmen also plans o
accele a e a hyd o de elopmen plan, whe e i aims o build 50,000 MW o new capaci y by 2026
( oughly he end o he 14 h Fi e-Yea Plan), which is mos ly concen a ed in he sou he n pa o he
coun y [31]. A “Sola Alliance” was also announced a he Clima e Summi mee ing in Pa is 2015,
which aims o expand i s enewable gene a ing capaci y o 175 GW by 2022. As he name sugges s,
Figu e 2. Elec ici y mix in India 2015 [2].
Howe e , he oil supply si ua ion is no so a o able. A he cu en le els o p oduc ion,
he domes ic oil sou ces will las o ano he 23 yea s. Howe e , he elec ici y s uc u e as discussed
does no hea ily depend on oil. The sha e o na u al gas, howe e , has been slowly inc easing o e
he yea s due o he disco e y o new gas ields, he inco po a ion o coal bed me hane (CBM) and
go e nmen in e es in he explo a ion and p oduc ion o CBM [32].
U anium o es a e o e y low quali y in India (a e age g ade as low as 0.1%), which makes
p oduc ion and ex ac ion o indigenous o es 2–3 imes mo e cos ly compa ed o in e na ional
supplies [
31
]. The impo o u anium, howe e , is no an easy ask because in e na ional ade
is go e ned by he guidelines o he nuclea supplie s g oup (NSG), and he guidelines did no pe mi
he sale o u anium o India. Howe e , because o policy ini ia i es om India, NSG guidelines we e
elaxed in 2008 [
33
]. As a esul , India has impo ed u anium and used i o uel hei nuclea powe
plan s and his in u n imp o ed he capaci y ac o s o he powe plan s [
34
,
35
]. Despi e he di icul ies
wi h low quali y local supplies, India is p omo ing he use o nuclea ene gy o ene gy secu i y as
well as en i onmen al bene i s [36].
India is also ocusing g ea ly on enewable ene gy. I was es ima ed ha India can p oduce up
o an 84,000 MW capaci y o hyd oelec ici y a 60% load ac o s. The go e nmen also plans o
accele a e a hyd o de elopmen plan, whe e i aims o build 50,000 MW o new capaci y by 2026
( oughly he end o he 14 h Fi e-Yea Plan), which is mos ly concen a ed in he sou he n pa o he
coun y [
31
]. A “Sola Alliance” was also announced a he Clima e Summi mee ing in Pa is 2015,
which aims o expand i s enewable gene a ing capaci y o 175 GW by 2022. As he name sugges s,
India will de elop i s sola ene gy and plans o ha e 100 GW capaci ies by 2022. The emainde o he
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 4 o 14
capaci y would be dis ibu ed among wind, biomass and small hyd opowe plan s [
36
,
37
] (NRDC,
2016; Na ional Ac ion Plan on Clima e Change, 2008).
3. Elec ici y Demand in India
India’s elec ici y consump ion was 980 TWh in 2015 [
2
] and has been inc easing a an a e age
a e o 8.84% [
3
]. Elec ici y consump ion is highes in he indus ial sec o (Figu e 3), which in 2015,
was es ima ed o consume 450 TWh (46%) and shows he highes g ow h in elec ici y consump ion
(11%). Some o he mos impo an indus ies o he Indian economy a e he s eel indus y; aluminum
indus y; cemen indus y; pe oleum indus y; pulp and pape indus y; e ilize indus y; mic o,
small and medium en e p ises and o he indus ies ( hey a e lis ed as impo an because each o
hem ha e hei own minis y). C ude s eel p oduc ion in India in 2015 was 89 million ons [
38
], and
he e has been a g adual end in dec easing ene gy in ensi y pe on o c ude s eel p oduced. F om
an a e age o 6.3 GCal (26.36 TJ) in 2013, he s a egic goal is 4.5 GCal (18.83 TJ) pe me ic on o
c ude s eel by 2025-26 [
39
]. The aluminum p oduc ion in India was 2.36 million ons [
40
], and he
elec ici y in ensi y pe on p oduced was es ima ed o be app oxima ely 14,000–17,000 kWh [
41
].
Cemen p oduc ion in India was 300 million ons in 2015 [
42
], and he elec ici y in ensi y pe on was
80 kWh [41].
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 o 14
India will de elop i s sola ene gy and plans o ha e 100 GW capaci ies by 2022. The emainde o
he capaci y would be dis ibu ed among wind, biomass and small hyd opowe plan s [36,37]
(NRDC, 2016; Na ional Ac ion Plan on Clima e Change, 2008).
3. Elec ici y Demand in India
India’s elec ici y consump ion was 980 TWh in 2015 [2] and has been inc easing a an a e age
a e o 8.84% [3]. Elec ici y consump ion is highes in he indus ial sec o (Figu e 3), which in 2015,
was es ima ed o consume 450 TWh (46%) and shows he highes g ow h in elec ici y consump ion
(11%). Some o he mos impo an indus ies o he Indian economy a e he s eel indus y;
aluminum indus y; cemen indus y; pe oleum indus y; pulp and pape indus y; e ilize
indus y; mic o, small and medium en e p ises and o he indus ies ( hey a e lis ed as impo an
because each o hem ha e hei own minis y). C ude s eel p oduc ion in India in 2015 was 89
million ons [38], and he e has been a g adual end in dec easing ene gy in ensi y pe on o c ude
s eel p oduced. F om an a e age o 6.3 GCal (26.36 TJ) in 2013, he s a egic goal is 4.5 GCal (18.83 TJ)
pe me ic on o c ude s eel by 2025-26 [39]. The aluminum p oduc ion in India was 2.36 million
ons [40], and he elec ici y in ensi y pe on p oduced was es ima ed o be app oxima ely 14000–
17000 kWh [41]. Cemen p oduc ion in India was 300 million ons in 2015 [42], and he elec ici y
in ensi y pe on was 80 kWh [41].
Figu e 3. Elec ici y p oduc ion and consump ion in India in 2015.
The pe oleum indus y is one o he la ges indus ies in India, p oducing 221 million ons o
a ious pe oleum p oduc s [43]. India’s oil e ining capaci y is 5 h in he wo ld behind he Uni ed
S a es o Ame ica, China, Russia and Japan. India’s speci ic ene gy consump ion pe on o
p oduc ion is also imp o ing om 76.4 MBTU/BBL in 2006 o 70.7 MBTU/BBL in 2008 [44]. The pulp
and pape p oduc ion in India was app oxima ely 7 million ons in 2010 and is showing a g ow h
a e o 8.1%. Mos o he ene gy used in his indus y is in he o m o p ocess hea , and
app oxima ely 25% o he powe comes om elec ici y. Elec ici y consump ion a ies om 1200–
2200 kWh/ on o pape [41]. Fe ilize p oduc ion in India was 32.5 million ons in 2013 [45]. This
indus y is an ene gy-e icien sec o consuming app oxima ely 29 GJ/M owing o he bes p ac ices
Figu e 3. Elec ici y p oduc ion and consump ion in India in 2015.
The pe oleum indus y is one o he la ges indus ies in India, p oducing 221 million ons o
a ious pe oleum p oduc s [
43
]. India’s oil e ining capaci y is 5 h in he wo ld behind he Uni ed
S a es o Ame ica, China, Russia and Japan. India’s speci ic ene gy consump ion pe on o p oduc ion
is also imp o ing om 76.4 MBTU/BBL in 2006 o 70.7 MBTU/BBL in 2008 [
44
]. The pulp and pape
p oduc ion in India was app oxima ely 7 million ons in 2010 and is showing a g ow h a e o 8.1%.
Mos o he ene gy used in his indus y is in he o m o p ocess hea , and app oxima ely 25% o he
powe comes om elec ici y. Elec ici y consump ion a ies om 1200–2200 kWh/ on o pape [
41
].
Fe ilize p oduc ion in India was 32.5 million ons in 2013 [
45
]. This indus y is an ene gy-e icien
sec o consuming app oxima ely 29 GJ/M owing o he bes p ac ices adop ed in gas-based plan s [
41
].
App oxima ely 80% o he ene gy used was in he o m o na u al gas and c ude oil [46].
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 5 o 14
Mic o, small and medium en e p ises (MSMEs) o m he backbone o he Indian manu ac u ing
economy, con ibu ing o app oxima ely 8.7% o he GDP. These en e p ises accoun o 45% o he
manu ac u ing ou pu and 40% o expo s. The independen na u e o his sec o makes i ee om
ou side con ol and decision making. The ene gy consumed by his sec o was es ima ed o be
ca. 275 TJ based on a su ey o 43 en e p ises [41].
In 2015, he domes ic sec o was es ima ed o consume 213 TWh [
3
] and is cu en ly he 2nd
highes consume . This is o be expec ed wi h India’s high popula ion. In 2011, he e we e a o al o
240 million households in India in he domes ic sec o , o which 67% a e in he u al sec o . The e has
been a la ge inc ease in households in he u ban sec o compa ed o he u al sec o , which can be
a ibu ed o apid u baniza ion and people mo ing om u al a eas o u ban a eas [
47
]. In 2011, 55%
o u al households we e elec i ied compa ed o 93% o households in he u ban sec o . The e o e,
is makes no sense o compa e India wi h elas ici ies o elec ici y demand o de eloped coun ies
such as U.S. [
48
,
49
], G7 coun ies [
50
] o Aus alia [
51
]. These da a indica e ha he e is s ill a la ge
po ion o he popula ion wi hou access o elec ici y, especially in u al a eas. Wi h India adop ing
u al elec i ica ion p og ams such as he “Deendayal Upadhyaya G am Jyo i Yojana” [
52
], which aims
o achie e a 100% elec i ica ion a e o u al a eas, he elec ici y consump ion om he domes ic
sec o would inc ease solely due o he ac ha new household a e being elec i ied. Howe e ,
he consump ion o elec ici y om his sec o depends on he income le el o he esiden s [
53
].
Highe income esiden s would ha e mo e ameni ies, such as ele isions, compu e s, and e ige a o s,
which would esul in mo e elec ici y consump ion. Such ends we e epo ed om o he apidly
g owing de eloping coun ies, such as Taiwan [
54
], Tu key [
55
], o G eece [
56
]. NSS 68 h Round (July
2011–June 2012) made a na ionwide su ey o ameni ies used by di e en household ac oss all he
s a es and epo ed he indings [
57
]. As expec ed, he u ban popula ion had mo e access o mode n
con eniences, such as ele isions. In a epo by he Global Buildings Pe o mance Ne wo k [
58
],
he annual elec ici y consump ion pe household will inc ease o 2750 kWh by 2050. I was also
epo ed ha consump ion can be educed by mo e han hal wi h he help o be e da a, policy
oadmaps and a esiden ial building ene gy code [58].
The ag icul u e sec o was es ima ed o consume 167 TWh in 2015 and is he 3 d highes consume
wi h a 17% sha e [
3
]. India has 125 million hec a es o land used o ag icul u e [
59
], and app oxima ely
50% o he land is i iga ed. Since 1991, he land use o ag icul u e emained oughly he same, while
elec ici y consump ion inc eased o e he same pe iod. This inc ease may be due o he inc easing use
o i iga ion o e ag icul u al lands o p o ide be e yields (which has imp o ed almos 2- old pe
hec a e since 1991).
In 2015, he comme cial sec o was es ima ed o consume 86 TWh o elec ici y. This sec o is
he 4 h highes consume (9%), bu he elec ici y consump ion in his sec o is inc easing a a highe
a e (8.82%) compa ed o hose o he domes ic (7.89%) and ag icul u al (6.59%) sec o s [
3
]. To al
comme cial loo space was es ima ed o be 660 million squa e me e s in 2010 [
60
] and is expe iencing
an a e age g ow h o 5% e e y yea . The comme cial sec o anges om wholesale ade o public
adminis a i e buildings o buildings used o educa ion and hospi als. USAID ECO-III P ojec [
60
]
also es ima ed he elec ici y in ensi y pe squa e me e o e e y sec o unde he comme cial ca ego y.
The ailways sec o was es ima ed o consume 15.5 TWh in 2015 [
3
]. In 2012, passenge kilome e s
a elled we e 1000 billion km, while eigh a ic was 975 million km. Ou o his, 50% was
h ough elec i ied ains (bo h goods and passenge ains) [
61
]. Finally, he emainde o elec ici y
consump ion was om o he uno ganized sec o s, and i was es ima ed ha hey consumed 46 TWh
in 2015 [3] and ha e an a e age annual g ow h o 4.75%.
4. Me hodology: LEAP Modelling
Fo he demand o elec ici y, he LEAP model was di ided in o: Indus ial sec o , Domes ic
sec o , Ag icul u al sec o , Comme cial sec o and o he s (see elec onic Suppleme a y Ma e ials).
Fo each sec o , he elec ici y demand was measu ed using da a ela ed o hei sec o and suppo ed

Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 6 o 14
by ex e nal a iables like GDP and popula ion. Fo he indus ial sec o , elec ici y demand was
measu ed by using hei p oduc ion a es and he elec ici y/ene gy in ensi y pe on o ma e ial
p oduced. Fo domes ic sec o , he elec ici y demand was measu ed om numbe o households and
elec ici y consump ion pe house (using da a om Na ional Sample O ice [57]).
Fo ag icul u e, we ook he his o ical end o inc easing elec ici y consump ion in his sec o
and o comme cial sec o , we ook da a om ECO-III [
60
] o make p ojec ions in comme cial loo
spaces in India and using he elec ici y in ensi y pe sq. m, we measu ed he elec ici y demand
o his sec o (sec ion Elec ici y demand in India). Fo he ans o ma ion and gene a ion side,
losses we e inco po a ed in o he model as well as he elec ici y-gene a ing plan s in India, namely,
Coal Ligni e, e c.
Ex e nal ac o s such as he GDP and popula ion ha a e needed o LEAP calcula ions we e
assumed o inc ease a a a e o 8% and 1.3%, espec i ely. In e na ional Mone a y Fund expec s GDP
g ow h 7.5% and 7.7% in inancial yea s 2020 and 2021 [
62
], 7.8% up o 2020 acco ding o PwC [
63
].
Longe - ime economic o ecas s a e conside ed o be p oblema ic [
64
]. Indian popula ion g ow h
igu es ange signi ican ly acco ding o a ious sou ces— om 1.1% [
65
] pe 1.17% [
66
] o 1.62% [
67
].
The s eel, aluminum, cemen , pe oleum, pulp and pape and e ilize indus y g ow h a es we e all
based on his o ical a es, and hei espec i e elec ici y consump ion was based on kWh pe on o
p oduc ion. The in o ma ion o kWh pe on o p oduc ion was discussed ea lie . The MSME sec o
was assumed o g ow as as as he economy (8.72% o he GDP).
Domes ic households we e p ojec ed o inc ease as much as he popula ion (Elas ici y = 1), and
he u al sha e o households was expec ed o be app oxima ely 50% by he end o 2030. Elec ici y
consump ion a he domes ic le el depends on he ex en o elec i ica ion o households and possession
o ameni ies. In 2015, elec i ied houses in he u al sec o we e app oxima ely 70% and he pe cen age
in he u ban sec o was assumed o be 100%. Access o household appliances depends on he income
le el o he household (o o simpli ica ion GDP pe capi a), and he a e age elec ici y usage om
hese appliances p o ides he o al domes ic consump ion o elec ici y. Acco ding o he Na ional
Sample O ice [
57
], he da a was b oken down in o indi idual s a es wi h u ban and u al popula ions.
In he scena ios, i is assumed ha 100% elec i ica ion a e would be possible by 2022. Comme cial loo
space was p ojec ed o inc ease a an annual a e o 5% [
60
]. Elec ici y consump ion was calcula ed by
kWh used pe squa e me e o he comme cial space. Mos o he da a used o his exe cise came om
he USAID ECO-III P ojec [60] es ima es o comme cial spaces and elec ici y usage.
The o al land use o ag icul u e was no expec ed o ise o all (gene al his o ical end), bu
he land unde i iga ion and he elec ici y usage pe hec a e o land has been slowly inc easing.
Going wi h he his o ical end, he elec ici y pe hec a e o land used is expec ed o inc ease a 5%
annually. The o al usage in he anspo a ion sec o inc eases wi h he GDP, while he pe cen age o
elec i ied ehicles is assumed o inc ease o 75% o he o al km a elled. G ow h om o he sec o s
was assumed o g ow a 7% (his o ical a es).
The e a e se e al scena ios se . One is a con en ional scena io whe e coal- and ligni e-based powe
plan s ha e he mos p e e ences, whe eas ano he is a enewable scena io whe e enewable ene gy
and nuclea ene gy a e p e e ed. F om he poin o iew o demand, he model is se up o check he
e ec s o how in es men s a e used. Whe he in es men s a e used o expand he capaci y o indus ial
ou pu he eby inc easing he p oduc ion om indus y o whe he hey a e used o he esea ch and
de elopmen o ene gy-sa ing solu ions. F om he domes ic and comme cial side, he adop ion o
mo e eco iendly o g een buildings can help in o al elec ici y consump ion in his sec o in he u u e.
The Minis y o New and Renewable Ene gy has implemen ed a scheme ega ding “Ene gy E icien
Sola /G een Buildings” [
68
], which aims o p omo e he widesp ead cons uc ion o ene gy-e icien
sola /g een buildings in he coun y h ough a combina ion o inancial and p omo ional incen i es.
G een buildings help educe he o al elec ici y consump ion by app oxima ely 25% [
69
]. In India he
goal is 30 o 40% o ene gy sa ings on ene gy used o ligh ing and ai condi ioning acco ding o he
o icial sou ces [68]. In summa y, he ollowing scena ios we e used o es ing:
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 7 o 14
High Renewable and Gas p oduc ion (HRG): This opic ocuses on he gene a ion o elec ici y.
Mo e emphasis has been on he gene a ion o elec ici y om enewable sou ces as well as nuclea
ene gy and na u al gas. In his scena io, he expansion o he elec ici y in as uc u e om he poin
o iew o enewables is as much as he le els expec ed in 2022 (175 TW capaci y is expec ed by ha
ime). In o he wo ds, he g ow h o enewables does no slow down e en a e 2022. In case he e is
sho age o elec ici y supply, coal- and ligni e-based powe plan s will be se up by he model.
Low Renewable and Gas p oduc ion (LRG): Again, ocusing on he gene a ion o elec ici y om
LRG is p e e ed o coal- and ligni e-based powe plan s. In his scena io, he g ow h o enewables
a e 2022 has slowed down and he sho age o supply is handled by coal- and ligni e-based plan s.
Addi ionally, no e ha nuclea , na u al gas and non-u ili ies powe plan s a e also added as needed by
bo h scena ios.
Ene gy Sa ing-Indus ial, comme cial and domes ic sec o (ES): This sec o is om he poin o
iew o he demand o elec ici y. In his scena io, i is assumed ha in es men s a e used o p o ide
mo e ene gy-e icien solu ions o indus y, such as sma sys ems [
70
] o mo i a ion o ene gy se ice
companies, a he cos o expanding he capaci y in as uc u e. The a ac i eness o g een buildings
o he domes ic and comme cial sec o s is also conside ed in his scena io.
High G ow h o indus y (HG): In his scena io, mos o he in es men s a e used o expand he
in as uc u e o indus ial p oduc ion, while ew in es men s a e placed in o ene gy sa ings. This
scena io also mimics he “Make in India” ini ia i e, which encou ages mul ina ional and domes ic
companies o manu ac u e hei p oduc s in India. This scena io was chosen because showing one o
he possible ex emes, i.e., high-g ow h no suppo ed by he ene gy sa ings a he simila le el.
5. Resul s
5.1. Elec ici y Demand
As expec ed, he high g ow h o indus y shows a la ge numbe o elec ici y equi emen s om
he indus ial sec o . All indus ies we e assumed o g ow a a sligh ly highe pace han he his o ical
a es, while he elec ici y in ensi y pe on o p oduc ion s ayed ela i ely he same. Figu es 4and 5
ep esen he demand o elec ici y om he di e en sec o s o 2030 in his scena io. Indus ial
demand o elec ici y is expec ed o g ow nea ly h ee imes compa ed o 2015.
All o he sec o s also expe ience g ow h o nea ly wo imes compa ed o 2015. In he domes ic
sec o , he g ow h is a ibu ed o he ise in popula ion and income le els o he esiden s. Comme cial
sec o s g ow because o expanding comme cial loo space and he in ensi y o elec ici y usage pe
squa e me e . This sec o shows highe g ow h han he ag icul u e sec o , and hese wo sec o s also
consume he same amoun o elec ici y by 2030.
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 o 14
ligh ing and ai condi ioning acco ding o he o icial sou ces [68]. In summa y, he ollowing
scena ios we e used o es ing:
High Renewable and Gas p oduc ion (HRG): This opic ocuses on he gene a ion o elec ici y.
Mo e emphasis has been on he gene a ion o elec ici y om enewable sou ces as well as nuclea
ene gy and na u al gas. In his scena io, he expansion o he elec ici y in as uc u e om he poin
o iew o enewables is as much as he le els expec ed in 2022 (175 TW capaci y is expec ed by ha
ime). In o he wo ds, he g ow h o enewables does no slow down e en a e 2022. In case he e is
sho age o elec ici y supply, coal- and ligni e-based powe plan s will be se up by he model.
Low Renewable and Gas p oduc ion (LRG): Again, ocusing on he gene a ion o elec ici y
om LRG is p e e ed o coal- and ligni e-based powe plan s. In his scena io, he g ow h o
enewables a e 2022 has slowed down and he sho age o supply is handled by coal- and
ligni e-based plan s. Addi ionally, no e ha nuclea , na u al gas and non-u ili ies powe plan s a e
also added as needed by bo h scena ios.
Ene gy Sa ing-Indus ial, comme cial and domes ic sec o (ES): This sec o is om he poin o
iew o he demand o elec ici y. In his scena io, i is assumed ha in es men s a e used o p o ide
mo e ene gy-e icien solu ions o indus y, such as sma sys ems [70] o mo i a ion o ene gy
se ice companies, a he cos o expanding he capaci y in as uc u e. The a ac i eness o g een
buildings o he domes ic and comme cial sec o s is also conside ed in his scena io.
High G ow h o indus y (HG): In his scena io, mos o he in es men s a e used o expand he
in as uc u e o indus ial p oduc ion, while ew in es men s a e placed in o ene gy sa ings. This
scena io also mimics he “Make in India” ini ia i e, which encou ages mul ina ional and domes ic
companies o manu ac u e hei p oduc s in India. This scena io was chosen because showing one o
he possible ex emes, i.e., high-g ow h no suppo ed by he ene gy sa ings a he simila le el.
5. Resul s
5.1. Elec ici y demand
As expec ed, he high g ow h o indus y shows a la ge numbe o elec ici y equi emen s om
he indus ial sec o . All indus ies we e assumed o g ow a a sligh ly highe pace han he
his o ical a es, while he elec ici y in ensi y pe on o p oduc ion s ayed ela i ely he same.
Figu es 4 and 5 ep esen he demand o elec ici y om he di e en sec o s o 2030 in his
scena io. Indus ial demand o elec ici y is expec ed o g ow nea ly h ee imes compa ed o 2015.
All o he sec o s also expe ience g ow h o nea ly wo imes compa ed o 2015. In he domes ic
sec o , he g ow h is a ibu ed o he ise in popula ion and income le els o he esiden s.
Comme cial sec o s g ow because o expanding comme cial loo space and he in ensi y o
elec ici y usage pe squa e me e . This sec o shows highe g ow h han he ag icul u e sec o , and
hese wo sec o s also consume he same amoun o elec ici y by 2030.
Figu e 4. Elec ici y consump ion om di e en sec o s in a high-g ow h scena io.
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 8 o 14
In summa y, LEAP shows ha he o al elec ici y consump ion is expec ed o inc ease om
1000 TWh in 2015 o 3000 TWh in 2030. In 2030, indus ial demand ises o 1700 TWh; he domes ic
demand ises o 490 TWh; he ag icul u al demand inc eases o 350 TWh; he comme cial demand ises
o 340 TWh; he anspo a ion demand ises o 30 TWh; and he o he sec o s inc ease o 140 TWh.
The ene gy sa ing scena io (Figu e 5) in LEAP shows ha he o al elec ici y consump ion om
all sec o s inc eases om app oxima ely 1000 TWh in 2015 o 2300 TWh in 2030. The educ ion in he
consump ion o elec ici y is mos ly because o he ene gy sa ing op ions used by he indus y and i s
sligh ly lowe g ow h a e compa ed o he ea lie scena io. Indus ial demand ises by app oxima ely
a ac o o 2 in his scena io om 450 TWh in 2015 o 1000 TWh in 2030.
The comme cial sec o s also expe ience many po en ial elec ici y sa ings in his scena io and
a sligh dec ease in he domes ic sec o . This sa ings (inpu o he models) can be a ibu ed o he
expec ed ise in popula i y o g een buildings in India ha ha e elec ical sa ings o app oxima ely
25% plus o he ene gy-sa ing bene i s. The domes ic sec o dec eased only sligh ly because o he
ongoing u al elec i ica ion p og am and he go e nmen ’s p io i y o ha e a 100% elec i ica ion a e,
especially in u al a eas.
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 14
Figu e 4. Elec ici y consump ion om di e en sec o s in a high-g ow h scena io.
In summa y, LEAP shows ha he o al elec ici y consump ion is expec ed o inc ease om
1000 TWh in 2015 o 3000 TWh in 2030. In 2030, indus ial demand ises o 1700 TWh; he domes ic
demand ises o 490 TWh; he ag icul u al demand inc eases o 350 TWh; he comme cial demand
ises o 340 TWh; he anspo a ion demand ises o 30 TWh; and he o he sec o s inc ease o 140
TWh.
The ene gy sa ing scena io (Figu e 5) in LEAP shows ha he o al elec ici y consump ion
om all sec o s inc eases om app oxima ely 1000 TWh in 2015 o 2300 TWh in 2030. The educ ion
in he consump ion o elec ici y is mos ly because o he ene gy sa ing op ions used by he indus y
and i s sligh ly lowe g ow h a e compa ed o he ea lie scena io. Indus ial demand ises by
app oxima ely a ac o o 2 in his scena io om 450 TWh in 2015 o 1000 TWh in 2030.
The comme cial sec o s also expe ience many po en ial elec ici y sa ings in his scena io and a
sligh dec ease in he domes ic sec o . This sa ings (inpu o he models) can be a ibu ed o he
expec ed ise in popula i y o g een buildings in India ha ha e elec ical sa ings o app oxima ely
25% plus o he ene gy-sa ing bene i s. The domes ic sec o dec eased only sligh ly because o he
ongoing u al elec i ica ion p og am and he go e nmen ’s p io i y o ha e a 100% elec i ica ion
a e, especially in u al a eas.
Figu e 5. Elec ici y consump ion om di e en sec o s in an ene gy-sa ing scena io.
5.2. Elec ici y gene a ion
In Figu e 6a, he LEAP esul s o elec ici y gene a ion in ene gy sa ing scena ios o he LRG
and HRG cases sugges s ha coal is s ill he mos impo an uel o gene a ing elec ici y, al hough
i s sha es ha e dec eased o 23% in he LRG case and up o 32% in he HRG case. This dec ease in
elec ici y gene a ion om coal sou ces is due o he apid expansion planned wi h he “Sola
Alliance” un il 2022. The enewables’ oles in elec ici y gene a ion in he LRG and HRG cases a e
12% and 20%, espec i ely, which is also a 2- old and 4- old inc ease, espec i ely, in sha es since
2015. O cou se, o al elec ici y gene a ion has also inc eased om 1337 TWh in 2015 o 3063 TWh in
2030.
In Figu e 6b, he LEAP esul s o he LRG and HRG cases o he high g ow h o indus y also
shows ha coal is s ill an impo an uel o elec ici y gene a ion. Howe e , in he HRG case, he
gene a ion o elec ici y om enewables has su passed ha by coal gene a ion. This is due o he
con inuing apid expansion o he enewable ene gy ne wo k in India a e 2022. In bo h cases, and
in bo h ene gy sa ing and indus ial g ow h scena ios, nuclea ene gy is slowly becoming
inc easingly impo an o secu ing he elec ici y needs o India’s u u e. In bo h cases, oil was no
ega ded o he u u e gene a ion o elec ici y because o small ese es loca ed in he coun y.
Figu e 5. Elec ici y consump ion om di e en sec o s in an ene gy-sa ing scena io.
5.2. Elec ici y Gene a ion
In Figu e 6a, he LEAP esul s o elec ici y gene a ion in ene gy sa ing scena ios o he LRG
and HRG cases sugges s ha coal is s ill he mos impo an uel o gene a ing elec ici y, al hough
i s sha es ha e dec eased o 23% in he LRG case and up o 32% in he HRG case. This dec ease in
elec ici y gene a ion om coal sou ces is due o he apid expansion planned wi h he “Sola Alliance”
un il 2022. The enewables’ oles in elec ici y gene a ion in he LRG and HRG cases a e 12% and 20%,
espec i ely, which is also a 2- old and 4- old inc ease, espec i ely, in sha es since 2015. O cou se,
o al elec ici y gene a ion has also inc eased om 1337 TWh in 2015 o 3063 TWh in 2030.
In Figu e 6b, he LEAP esul s o he LRG and HRG cases o he high g ow h o indus y also
shows ha coal is s ill an impo an uel o elec ici y gene a ion. Howe e , in he HRG case, he
gene a ion o elec ici y om enewables has su passed ha by coal gene a ion. This is due o he
con inuing apid expansion o he enewable ene gy ne wo k in India a e 2022. In bo h cases, and in
bo h ene gy sa ing and indus ial g ow h scena ios, nuclea ene gy is slowly becoming inc easingly
impo an o secu ing he elec ici y needs o India’s u u e. In bo h cases, oil was no ega ded o
he u u e gene a ion o elec ici y because o small ese es loca ed in he coun y.
Ene gies 2019,12, 1361 9 o 14
Ene gies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 o 14
Figu e 6. Elec ici y gene a ion o he ene gy-sa ing and high-g ow h scena ios.
6. Discussion
Publicly a ailable o icial da a om all sec o s we e a ailable, especially o he co e indus ies
in India. Empi ical da a we e ob ained o he domes ic and comme cial sec o s. Good es ima es
could be acqui ed om he Census da a [47] and he USAID ECO-III P ojec [60] es ima es o
comme cial spaces. In he case o indus ies, he TERI [41] ene gy da a di ec o y oge he wi h he
Minis y o S eel and he Minis y o Pe oleum [43] con ained i al da a ega ding ene gy use by
a ious ypes o indus ies in India. In he case o he mic o, small and medium en e p ises sec o ,
which con ibu ed o app oxima ely 8% o he GDP and app oxima ely 40% o he manu ac u ing
ou pu [71], he e is inadequa e da a in e ms o ene gy consump ion because o he di e si y o his
sec o . Wi h majo policy ini ia i es o de elop his sec o u he , such as The Mic o, Small and
Medium En e p ises De elopmen Ac [72] and he policy o he ese a ion o p oduc ion o
manu ac u e s in his sec o , he g ow h in his sec o will no slow down in he u u e. Because o
he shee size o his sec o , he e is also he possibili y o po en ially la ge ene gy sa ings ha can be
acqui ed. The minis y ela ed o his sec o has many policies o expanding his sec o bu none o
ene gy sa ings.
Judging om he simula ion esul s, he enewable ene gy ne wo k needs o be p ope ly
implemen ed in o he sys em o make i success ul. Elec ici y p oduc ion and dis ibu ion do no
necessa ily ollow he ypical assump ions made by neoclassical economics, which means ha
pe ec compe i ion be ween he di e en sou ces becomes ine icien . Fu he mo e, he go e nmen
would need o in e ene by subsidizing some sec ions o he elec ici y ne wo k, which would esul
in an op imal ou come [73]. In India, he Na ional Elec ici y Policy men ions ha he commission
needs o de e mine an app op ia e de e en ial a i o p omo e enewable ene gy as hey will ake
Figu e 6. Elec ici y gene a ion o he ene gy-sa ing and high-g ow h scena ios.
6. Discussion
Publicly a ailable o icial da a om all sec o s we e a ailable, especially o he co e indus ies in
India. Empi ical da a we e ob ained o he domes ic and comme cial sec o s. Good es ima es could
be acqui ed om he Census da a [
47
] and he USAID ECO-III P ojec [
60
] es ima es o comme cial
spaces. In he case o indus ies, he TERI [
41
] ene gy da a di ec o y oge he wi h he Minis y o
S eel and he Minis y o Pe oleum [
43
] con ained i al da a ega ding ene gy use by a ious ypes o
indus ies in India. In he case o he mic o, small and medium en e p ises sec o , which con ibu ed
o app oxima ely 8% o he GDP and app oxima ely 40% o he manu ac u ing ou pu [
71
], he e is
inadequa e da a in e ms o ene gy consump ion because o he di e si y o his sec o . Wi h majo
policy ini ia i es o de elop his sec o u he , such as The Mic o, Small and Medium En e p ises
De elopmen Ac [
72
] and he policy o he ese a ion o p oduc ion o manu ac u e s in his sec o ,
he g ow h in his sec o will no slow down in he u u e. Because o he shee size o his sec o , he e
is also he possibili y o po en ially la ge ene gy sa ings ha can be acqui ed. The minis y ela ed o
his sec o has many policies o expanding his sec o bu none o ene gy sa ings.
Judging om he simula ion esul s, he enewable ene gy ne wo k needs o be p ope ly
implemen ed in o he sys em o make i success ul. Elec ici y p oduc ion and dis ibu ion do no
necessa ily ollow he ypical assump ions made by neoclassical economics, which means ha pe ec
compe i ion be ween he di e en sou ces becomes ine icien . Fu he mo e, he go e nmen would
need o in e ene by subsidizing some sec ions o he elec ici y ne wo k, which would esul in an
op imal ou come [
73
]. In India, he Na ional Elec ici y Policy men ions ha he commission needs o
de e mine an app op ia e de e en ial a i o p omo e enewable ene gy as hey will ake some ime o
compe e wi h con en ional sou ces on he basis o p ices [
74
], bu in he long e m, hey a e expec ed
o compe e wi h all o he sou ces in e ms o cos .