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F om legisla ion o compliance: The powe o a ic law en o cemen o he
case s udy o Spain
José I. Cas illo-Manzano
a
, Me cedes Cas o-Nuño
a,∗
, Lou des López-Valpues a
a
,
Diego J. Ped egal
b
a
Applied Economics & Managemen Resea ch G oup, Uni e sidad de Se illa, Spain
b
Escuela Técnica Supe io de Ingenie os Indus iales, Uni e sidad Cas illa-La Mancha, Spain
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Legisla ion
T a ic Law En o cemen
Compliance
Fa ali ies
Dynamic ans e unc ion models
ABSTRACT
Using a dynamic ans e unc ion model-based me hodology, his s udy analyzes he join in luence o legis-
la ion changes, en o cemen and compliance wi h d i ing egula ions in e ms o oad a ali ies in Spain du ing
he 2005–2015 ime pe iod. Th ee obus econome ic models demons a e ha wo o he oad sa e y law
e o ms ecen ly implemen ed in Spain, he poin s-based d i e 's license and he oughening o he Penal Code,
ha e had posi i e impac s, albei wi h a ying du a ions. Thei impac s a e also seen o ha e been ein o ced by
he applica ion o a ange o moni o ing ins umen s o ack compliance. The mos e ec i e o hese include
ada speed measu ing de ices, he me e p esence o which has he desi ed de e en e ec i espec i e o he
posi i e p oo ha hey migh de ec . Howe e , lack o compliance wi h maximum alcohol limi s seems o
inc ease oad a ali ies, which sugges s ha a mo e complex p e en i e s a egy needs o be de eloped h ough a
combina ion o p og ammed ac ions. Las ly, he i eplaceable de e ence ole o a ic police who en o ce
compliance wi h d i ing laws s ands ou , wi h he numbe o o ice s deployed being decisi e.
1. In oduc ion
T a ic acciden s cause o e a million dea hs pe yea wo ldwide,
p oduce subs an ial economic cos s o socie y, and gene a e a majo
public heal h p oblem (WHO, 2017). A g ea numbe o policies ha e
he e o e been de eloped by di e en le els o go e nmen and in e -
na ional o ganiza ions o educe he acciden a e. These policies s ess
each o he dimensions ha a ec d i ing and he likelihood o a c ash
( he oad, he ehicle, he use ) be o e, du ing, and a e he acciden
(Haddon, 1980). Many a e speci ically di ec ed a p e en ing, en o -
cing, and co ec ing indi idual d i e beha io since, as is well known,
mos a ic acciden s a e caused by human e o due o widesp ead
noncompliance wi h a ic laws (El ik e al., 2009).
F amed in his line, he pu pose o his s udy is o examine he in-
luence o changes o legisla ion, en o cemen , and compliance wi h
a ic egula ions in e ms o he numbe o oad a ali ies in Spain. The
pe iod chosen o he s udy is ecen —2005-2015—and ma ked by he
end o he economic g ow h cycle and he economic ecession, which
was especially ha d- el in Spain (Regido e al., 2014). 2005 was spe-
ci ically aken as he s a ing poin as i ma ks a u ning poin in
Spanish oad sa e y. The coming in o e ec o he Di ec o a e-Gene al
o T a ic's S a egic Plan o 2005–2008 (DGT, 2006) made oad sa e y
a poli ical p io i y (No oa e al., 2009;Pé ez, 2009). This Plan
s eng hened exis ing legisla i e measu es by making majo changes o
a ic laws, including he in oduc ion o he poin s-based d i e 's li-
cense and he e o m o he Penal Code. Measu es o en o ce com-
pliance we e also s eng hened (No oa e al., 2011b). To achie e ou
objec i e we use a obus econome ic me hodology based on dynamic
ans e unc ion models o he ad anced ea men o ime se ies.
This a icle is s uc u ed in he ollowing way: a e he in oduc-
ion, Sec ion 2includes a e iew o bo h he in e na ional and Spanish
li e a u e on he opic. Nex , he da ase and me hodology a e explained
in Sec ion 3. Sec ion 4se s ou he esul s, which a e subsequen ly
discussed in Sec ion 5. Sec ion 6add esses he main conclusions ha
de i e om he esea ch. Finally, a lis o e e ences is p o ided.
2. Li e a u e e iew
One o he mos -widesp ead s a egies o aise compliance wi h
a ic laws in de eloped coun ies is based on a combina ion o
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. anpol.2018.12.009
Recei ed 13 Ap il 2018; Recei ed in e ised o m 16 Decembe 2018; Accep ed 19 Decembe 2018
∗
Co esponding au ho . Applied Economics & Managemen Resea ch G oup, Uni e sidad de Se illa, A da. Ramón y Cajal, 1, 41018, Se ille, Spain.
E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (J.I. Cas illo-Manzano), [email p o ec ed] (M. Cas o-Nuño), [email p o ec ed] (L. López-Valpues a),
[email p o ec ed] (D.J. Ped egal).
T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
A ailable online 23 Decembe 2018
0967-070X/ © 2018 Else ie L d. All igh s ese ed.
T
legisla ion (wi h di e ing deg ees o se e i y) (see e.g., Cas illo-
Manzano e al., 2011,2015), police moni o ing-con ols (see Tay,
2005), and puni i e co ec ion (see e.g., Basili e al., 2015;Bjø nskau
and El ik, 1992). E idence indica es ha hese h ee oad sa e y policy
ools should be insepa able (Wegman, 1992) as he exis ence o a ic
legisla ion does no pe se ensu e a educ ion in isk beha io s (ETSC,
2011). T a ic laws should also be en o ced by an e ec i e a ic
moni o ing and con ol sys em (Mäkinen e al., 2003).
Coe ci e oad sa e y measu es ha e adi ionally been based on he
p inciples o he Gene al De e ence Theo y (Ba es e al., 2012) wi h he
aim o inc easing indi idual-social educa ion, pe cep ions and awa e-
ness o he consequences o Unsa e D i ing Ac ions (UDAs) (Allen e al.,
2017;Flei e e al., 2013;Wa ling and Leal, 2012). Acco ding o he
Gene al De e ence Theo y, indi iduals will be mo i a ed o abs ain
om ule b eaking i hey pe cei e any subsequen sanc ion o pun-
ishmen o be se e e, una oidable, and immedia e. The e o e, o e -
ec i ely encou age compliance wi h he law, sanc ions need o be
pe cei ed by he public as una oidable, se e e, and swi (Homel, 1994,
2012). None heless, i mus be bo ne in mind ha people's pe sonali ies
in luence hei mo al accep ance o coe ci e policies, which migh e-
duce he e ec i eness o hese oad sa e y e o s (Gu man, 2015).
The li e a u e has b oadly add essed he ela ionship be ween he
applica ion o law en o cemen and compliance wi h oad sa e y law
(Da ey and F eeman, 2011). In p ac ice, he mos widely implemen ed
T a ic Law En o cemen (TLE) s a egies o achie e de e ence and
compliance wi h laws include, in e alia, police su eillance (Tay,
2005) and he applica ion o o mal penal y mechanisms (e.g., ines and
jail sen ences; see Blai and Knigh , 2013;Goodwin e al., 2006). Su -
eillance is equen ly used o ecu en UDAs, such as speeding
(Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2019;ETSC, 2016;Veis en e al., 2013) and
d i ing while unde he in luence o alcohol (DUI) (Blais e al., 2015;
Sanem e al., 2015).
The e is a logical consensus ha he key ou come used o e alua e
TLE e ec i eness is de e ence. The police p e en oad use s om
commi ing iola ions by causing a ea o being de ec ed and ined o
ecei ing some o he o m o punishmen . Fo his hey use wo p o-
cesses which, despi e being di ec ed a di e en popula ions, a e based
on simila mechanisms (see, o example, Flei e e al., 2013 o a
b oade analysis): speci ic de e ence (i.e., anyone de ec ed b eaking
he law and punished is de e ed om eo ending) and gene al de e -
ence (i.e., people, in gene al, a e de e ed om commi ing a iola ion
wi hou being de ec ed). Compliance wi h he law h ough de e ence is
complemen ed (and, ideally, eplaced in he long e m) by olun a y
compliance based on mo al adhe ence o he law, whe he because he
law is conside ed o be mo ally jus i ied o because i is conside ed o be
mo ally co ec o comply wi h au ho i y e en when he law is con-
o e sial (Goldenbeld e al., 2013).
The model unde lying his p ocess is syn hesized in Fig. 1, which
shows all he co esponding phases, om legisla ion o he inal ob-
jec i e o compliance, based on he de e ence mechanism in oduced
by TLE.
As can be obse ed in Fig. 1 and ollowing Sanem e al. (2015),
he e a e a ious elemen s, om legisla ion o compliance, ha need o
be coo dina ed o success ully aise awa eness and induce a pe cep ion
o being caugh and sanc ioned i laws a e iola ed (Mäkinen e al.,
2003;SWOV, 2016).
Legisla ion is seen as he e e ence amewo k o a ic planning
and managemen and can in luence use s (basically d i e s) in h ee
ways (ETSC, 2011):
Fi s , he legisla ion en o ced by means o police moni o ing, su -
eillance, and con ol ac i i ies (TLE) c ea es an objec i e isk (i.e., a
eal likelihood o being caugh caused by he le el o su eillance ac-
i i ies). This has an impac on d i e s' pe cep ions o he possibili y o
a ic iola ions being de ec ed depending o he in ensi y o TLE (i.e.,
asubjec i e pe cep ion). Second, he applica ion o complemen a y
suppo measu es (e.g., publici y campaigns, see Cas illo-Manzano
e al., 2012; o he exis ence o an e icien judicial-puni i e sys em, see
Fac o , 2014;Redelmeie e al., 2003) can inc ease o educe he sub-
jec i e isk o de ec ion and, o a g ea ex en , de e mine he size o he
e ec ha de e ence has on beha io (Mehmood, 2010;S anoje ĭ;c
e al., 2013). Thi d, he e ec s o legisla ion can di ec ly in luence he
beha io o some oad use s due o hei mo al a i ude owa d he
legisla ion (Zaidel, 2002); essen ially, hey a e awa e o he need o
laws and some kind o ehicle code o exis , and so comply olun a ily
when hey see o he use s abiding by he law (Zaal, 1994).
The legisla ion-TLE combina ion can ha e a signi ican e ec on
compliance wi h a ic ules, al hough i is also clea ha non-
compliance will p obably con inue o exis (see Zaidel, 2002). Legisla-
ion is he mos e alua ed in e en ion wi h he bes ou comes, al-
hough, as Bendak (2005) and Cas illo-Manzano e al. (2011) ound,
his posi i e e ec seems o be limi ed in ime. Two ou comes can be
analyzed o assess he impac o TLE when conside ing he en o cemen
mechanism: change in oad use beha io and a i udes ( a ic iola-
ions) and e ec on a ic acciden s.
The impac o TLE on he numbe o a ic acciden s has been in-
es iga ed by di e en s udies, al hough, as S anoje ić e al. (2013)
s a e, he e is mixed e idence as o i s e icacy o educing acciden s.
Some o hese s udies (e.g., Hakke e al., 2001;Makowsky and
S a mann, 2011) ound ha TLE ac i i ies and/o ines had some po-
si i e e ec s on oad acciden educ ion, while o he s (Fell e al., 2014;
Ta ko, 2008) did no ind any s a is ical signi icance o en o cemen
measu es. This di e ence in indings has led au ho s such as El ik
(2001) o a gue ha all ele an cos s and bene i s should be aken in o
accoun when e alua ing TLE e ec i eness.
Conside ing TLE e ec s on di e en a ic law iola ions, a e y
ecen exhaus i e me a-analy ic e iew by Theo ila os e al. (2017),
de eloped in he amewo k o he Sa e yCube Eu opean Commission
suppo ed Ho izon 2020 p ojec , add esses he e ec i eness o TLE by
e e ing o he mos s udied esea ch opics. Fo example, wi h espec
o speeding, a ecen sys ema ic li e a u e e iew by Bo eghi e al.
(2017) concludes a posi i e impac o speed con ol measu es in gen-
e al, as hey educe acciden equency and he p opo ion o d i e s
exceeding speed limi s. In addi ion, se e al me a-analyses such as De
Ceunynck (2017) and Høye (2014) show ha he p esence o , o an
inc ease in, speci ic speed con ol measu es such as sec ion con ol and
ixed speed came as leads o compliance wi h speed limi laws.
Rega ding en o cemen o es ic ions on alcohol consump ion
while d i ing, me a-analyses by E ke e al. (2009) and Macaluso e al.
(2017) e alua e he e ec i eness o well-known con ol measu es, such
as BAC (Blood Alcohol Con en ) limi s laws, applied in combina ion
wi h en o cemen measu es, such as DUI checkpoin s and andom o
selec i e b ea h es s. Bo h ound ha he e is a b oad de e ence e ec
on d i e s who commi hese kinds o o ences ha leads o a s a is i-
cally signi ican educ ion in a al acciden s in gene al and in alcohol-
ela ed acciden s in pa icula . No wi hs anding, o he me a-analyses
such as El ik e al. (2009) epo ed mo e limi ed esul s, wi h a non-
signi ican de e ence e ec on young d i e s and e en an inc ease in
a al acciden s. Fu he mo e, he dec ease in mean BAC obse ed by
Ži ko ić e al. (2013) o he case o Se bia was no s a is ically sig-
ni ican . Theo ila os e al. (2017) belie e ha hese disc epancies could
be explained by he di icul y o isola ing he e ec o alcohol- ela ed
laws om ime ends and o he con ounding a iables, and he ac
ha DUI con ol p ocedu es may a y among coun ies (and, he e o e,
among he analyzed s udies).
Wi h espec o en o cemen o diminish sea bel iola ions, he
sys ema ic e iew by Al onsi e al. (2017) obse es ha sea bel legis-
la ion and ela ed en o cemen ac i i ies a e e ec i e o imp o ing he
beha io o oad use s, wi h a 21% inc ease in sea bel usage du ing he
en o cemen pe iod and 15% subsequen ly. Mo e speci ically, Dinh-
Za e al. (2001) and Nichols e al. (2014), show ha inc easing he
numbe o police o ice s on pa ol and inc easing ine le els, espec-
i ely, esul in highe a es o sea bel use.
J.I. Cas illo-Manzano e al. T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
2
Rega ding en o cemen ac i i ies in ela ion o ecu en dis ac-
ions such as, o example, cell phone use while d i ing, e idence o
da e seems o show ha implemen ing laws and inc easing en o cemen
ha e had no clea e ec . The me a-analysis by Theo ila os (2017)
showed a mixed impac on d i e s' in en ion owa d cell phone use and
on obse ed cell phone use, as he e a e posi i e e ec s in absolu e
numbe s—bu wi h no s a is ical e alua ion—and nonsigni ican and
e en nega i e e ec s. This au ho he e o e concludes ha he opic
needs u he in es iga ion.
No wi hs anding, he e would seem o be a deg ee o consensus ha
legisla ion needs o be accompanied by adequa e TLE and o he com-
plemen a y measu es i i is o be e ec i e o e ime (Åbe g, 1998;
Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011;ETSC, 2016) and p e en a pe e se
compensa o y beha io , namely he “Pel zman e ec ”
1
(Benede ini and
Nici a, 2012;Pel zman, 1975).
The academic li e a u e has also analyzed he h ee p e iously
men ioned co ne s ones o oad sa e y in he Spanish case: legisla ion,
TLE, and compliance wi h he law. Wi h ega d o legisla ion, a numbe
o di e en oad sa e y laws ha e been passed in Spain in ecen yea s
(Albala e e al., 2013;López-Ruiz e al., 2014), wi h he main measu es
being he 2007 e o m o he Penal Code o impose oughe penal ies
o a ic iola ions (Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011;No oa e al.,
2011a) and, especially, he highly sc u inized implemen a ion o he
poin s-based d i e 's license in 2006 (Apa icio Izquie do e al., 2011;
Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2010;No oa e al., 2010;Pulido e al., 2010).
Howe e , as p e iously explained, he eal e ec i eness o legisla i e
measu es o educe a ic acciden s is clea ly in luenced by he sub-
sequen deg ee o police con ol and su eillance, and indi idual
compliance.
Wi h ega d o beha io and de ec ed iola ions, Ayuso e al. (2010)
s udied eckless beha io and d i e dis ac ion in bo h adminis a i e
and speeding- ela ed a ic iola ions in Spain and analyzed hei
in luence on acciden likelihood by c ash se e i y. Mo e speci ically,
hey ound ha combina ions o a ic iola ions in a c ash lead o
highe es ima ed a e age cos s and a e associa ed wi h a g ea e like-
lihood o a a al acciden occu ence compa ed o cases in which he e
a e no a ic iola ions. Consequen ly, penaliza ions imposed o a ic
iola ions do no necessa ily add ess he o al economic cos o acci-
den s.
Las ly, o he s udies such as Apa icio Izquie do e al. (2013) and
Dadasho a e al. (2016) ha e ela ed se e al o he abo e-men ioned
co ne s ones o oad sa e y o he 1990–2004 and 2000–2011 pe iods,
espec i ely, analyzing some o he p e iously indica ed ele an leg-
isla i e changes in combina ion wi h su eillance measu es. In ne
e ms, Apa icio Izquie do e al. (2013) ind e idence o a signi ican
educ ion in a ic acciden s because e ec i e police su eillance and
imp o emen s o bo h ehicles and oads can coun e balance he in-
luence o ac o s such as isk exposu e, speed, and aging ehicle s ock.
Dadasho a e al. (2016) show ha inc eased a es o d i e beha io
su eillance (such as alcohol con ols, speed checks, suspended d i e
licenses) ha e gene ally led o imp o ed oad sa e y indica o s and a
dec ease in he numbe o a al acciden s.
The cu en pape add esses he impac o a ic egula ion mea-
su es, TLE, and iola ions on a ic a ali ies o he case s udy o Spain
du ing a mo e ecen pe iod and uses a me hodological ocus based on
dynamic ans e unc ion models. In addi ion, a comp ehensi e bib-
liog aphical e iew has enabled ou esul s o be co obo a ed by p e-
ious s udies. The objec i e has been o conduc he ulles s udy pos-
sible and join ly es Legisla ion, TLE, and Compliance o ob ain obus
coe icien s o he measu emen o he ne e ec s o he undamen al
p ocesses included in Fig. 1.
3. Da a and me hodology
The endogenous a iable is he numbe o a ali ies eco ded
mon hly du ing he 2005–2015 pe iod on in e ci y oads in all Spanish
na ional e i o y excep ing he Basque Coun y and Ca alonia, as he
Ci il Gua d's a ic ask o ce is esponsible o TLE da a in all egions
excep hese wo.
Following Fig. 1, he explana o y o exogenous a iables can be
classi ied in o h ee g oups: legisla ion, TLE, and compliance.
a) Road sa e y legisla ion- ela ed a iables du ing he pe iod unde
Fig. 1. Mechanisms o a ic law compliance h ough in oduced by TLE. Sou ce: P epa ed by au ho s based on Mäkinen e al. (2003).
1
The e ec equen ly e e ed o as he “Pel zman e ec ” was i s desc ibed
by he economis S. Pel zman in 1975 as a isk compensa ion- ela ed phe-
nomenon ha explains he unin ended consequences o heal h ca e in e en-
ions in gene al and oad sa e y egula ions in pa icula . The hypo hesis is ha
indi iduals eac o sa e y laws by inc easing o he isky d i ing beha io s such
as, o example, a d i e who wea s his sea bel bu has a sense o secu i y ha
leads him/he o belie e ha speeding is no dange ous.
J.I. Cas illo-Manzano e al. T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
3
s udy: he implemen a ion o he poin s-based d i e 's license
(Apa icio Izquie do e al., 2011;Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2010;
No oa e al., 2010) and Penal Code e o m (Apa icio Izquie do
e al., 2011;Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011).
b) TLE- ela ed a iables: speed con ols (Apa icio Izquie do e al.,
2013), b ea h es s (Dadasho a e al., 2016), numbe o a ic police
deployed (Apa icio Izquie do e al., 2013) and hei p oduc i i y.
c) Va iables o he deg ee o d i e compliance wi h a ic laws. The
moni o ed iola ions o which noncompliance is analyzed in his
pape a e alcohol- and speed- ela ed as, acco ding o he Eu opean
Commission (2008), es ima es o 2004 a ibu e 30% o oad dea hs
in he EU o speed, bo h oo low and oo high, while 25% a e a -
ibu ed o d i ing unde he e ec s o alcohol. In addi ion, ac-
co ding o La delli-Cla e e al. (2003), speeding and alcohol con-
sump ion be o e d i ing a e he main d i e -dependen isk ac o s
o causing a ehicle collision in Spain.
Two o he exogenous a iables ha e also been included o cap u e
he e olu ion o economic ac i i y. These a e, speci ically, Fuel
Consump ion (Dadasho a e al., 2016), used as a p oxy o he economic
cycle (also an indica ion o he coun y's le el o mo o iza ion) and
Wo kdays (Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011), used o measu e he a io
be ween he numbe o wo kdays and weekend days pe mon h.
Table 1 gi es he ull lis o he a iables conside ed, hei de ini-
ions and hei desc ip i e s a is ics. All a iables a e mon hly.
Acco ding o La enz e al. (2018), li le use has been made o ime
se ies models in a ic sa e y esea ch due o a combina ion o p o-
blems wi h da a collec ion and esea che s' and p ac i ione s' limi ed
knowledge o app op ia e me hods. As a no el y, ans e unc ion
models (Box e al., 2016;Ga cía-Fe e e al., 2007;Cas illo-Manzano
e al., 2010,2011) ha e been used. Thei use is s ill limi ed in his ield,
as is demons a ed by he ac ha hey a e no included in he ho -
ough su ey conduc ed by La enz e al. (2018). Howe e , hey ha e
been chosen due o he main ad an ages o dynamic ans e unc ion
models o e o he me hodologies, namely, hey p o ide pa ame ically
e icien ully dynamic speci ica ions o inpu -ou pu ela ionships,
allow o au oco ela ed noises, and enable au oma ic iden i ica ion
p ocedu es based on in o ma ion c i e ia (see below; Young, 2011).
T ans e unc ion models can ac ually be unde s ood as ully dy-
namic ex ensions o linea eg ession models. The gene al o mula o
dynamic ans e models can be w i en as (1), below:
= +
+
+ +
= =
yb
a B xw B
BzB B
B B e
1
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
dD
i
k
i
i
dDi
j
mj
j
dDj
q
p
12
1
12
1
12
Q12
P12
(1)
In his equa ion
y
is an endogenous a iable ( a ali ies on in e ci y
oads);
= …x i k( 1,2, , )
i
a e he se o dummy a iables;
= …z j m( 1,2, , )
j
a e he con inuous exogenous a iables;
e
is whi e noise wi h ze o
mean, cons an a iance and no se ial co ela ion;
B
is he delay op-
e a o , whe e
=B x x
l l
;
=B1
is he di e ence ope a o ;
=B1
12
12
is he seasonal di e ence ope a o ; is a cons an ;
bi
y
= …a i k( 1,2, , )
i
a e cons an s;
w B( )
j
is he nume a o o he dynamic
model ha ela es each o he exogenous a iables o he endogenous
a iable, i.e.,
= + +…+w B w w B w B( ) ( )
j j j
0 1
;
B( )
j
is he denomina o o
he same dynamic model, i.e.,
= + +…+B B B( ) (1 )
j j j
1
; he las
summand is he s a iona y and e e sible ARMA noise model which
con ains di e en o de , egula and seasonal polynomials in he delay
ope a o , i.e.,
= + +…+B B B( ) (1 )
p p
p
1
,
= + +…+B B B( ) (1 )
q q q
1
,
= + +…+B B B( ) (1 )
P
P
P12 112 12
y
= + +…+B B B( ) (1 )
QQ
Q12 112
.
One impo an aspec o he model cons uc ion p ocess is o iden-
i y he o de s o he polynomials in he noise model (
p P q Q, , , )
and
ha a ec he con inuous exogenous a iables (
w B B( )/ ( )
j j
). In his
s udy, iden i ica ion was achie ed by minimizing he Schwa z Bayesian
In o ma ion C i e ion (SBC) o a se o al e na i e models. SBC weigh
model adjus men is done by penalizing he objec i e unc ion by he
Table 1
Va iables conside ed.
G oup Name De ini ion Mean S d. De . Min. Max.
Road sa e y ou come Fa ali ies No. o a ic a ali ies on in e ci y oads in Spain excluding he Basque Coun y and Ca alonia (1) 130.44 56.63 51 282
Legisla ion Poin s license Dummy a iable ha cap u es he e ec o he in oduc ion o he poin s-based d i e 's license in July 2006 (2) 0.08 0.09 0 1
Penal Code Dummy a iable o he Penal Code e o m o Decembe 2007 0.73 0.44 0 1
TLE Speed con ols ( housands) No. o ehicles subjec ed o speed es s using ada equipmen (mobile) on in e ci y oads (3) 2267 433.53 1494 3185
B ea h es s ( housands) To al no. o b ea h es s adminis e ed on in e ci y oads 438.84 104.11 228.81 683.66
No. police o ice s ( housands) To al no. o Ci il Gua d T a ic Task Fo ce o ice s deployed on in e ci y oads 105.17 12.95 73.21 140.44
Police o ice s P oduc i i y To al no. o con ols (including b ea h es s and speed checks) pe numbe o Ci il Gua d o ice s deployed 25.93 4.85 17.30 39.55
Compliance DUI (alcohol) iola ions (%) Pe cen age o posi i e b ea h es esul s pe o al no. o b ea h es s adminis e ed 1.91 0.43 1.27 3.12
Speed iola ions (%) Pe cen age o posi i e speeding iola ion de ec ions pe o al no. o ehicles subjec ed o speed con ols 3.20 0.67 2.00 4.91
Economic ac i i y Fuel (million onnes) To al domes ic anspo sec o uel consump ion (gas and diesel) 2.39 0.24 1.88 2.92
Wo kdays (days) Va iable de ined as he no. o wo kdays minus weekend days x 2½ 0.00 2.66 −5.00 3.00
(1) Se ies p o ided by he Spanish Di ec o a e Gene al o T a ic in acco dance wi h he Vienna Con en ion, which conside s a ali ies ha occu du ing a pe iod o 30 days ollowing he acciden . (2) The Poin s-Based
D i e 's License a iable is modeled as a ansi o y change, as indica ed by Bu le e al. (2006) o I eland, and De Paola e al. (2013) and Fa chi e al. (2007) o I aly. (3) The Speed Con ol a iable only quan i ies
con ols conduc ed by ada s moun ed on Ci il Gua d T a ic Task Fo ce ehicles. Con ols using pe manen oadside ada equipmen a e he e o e excluded.
J.I. Cas illo-Manzano e al. T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
4
numbe o pa ame e s o include only he pa ame e s ha cause a
signi ican imp o emen o he objec i e unc ion.
The iden i ica ion p ocess yields he ollowing model (2):
= +
+
+ + +
= =
yb
a B x w z B e
1(1 )
i
k
i
i
i
j
m
j j 12
1
12
1
12 1 12
(2)
The model can be said o only con ain a seasonal di e ence. The
ans e unc ions wi h con inuous a iables a e in eali y linea e-
g ession e ms and he noise model is an MA(1) wi h mon hly seasons.
The dummy a iable e ec s in (2) equi e u he explana ion.
When
xi
is aken as a dummy a iable wi h a alue o 1 a ime
and 0
elsewhe e, he i s o de ans e unc ions a ec ing he dummy a i-
ables in (2) may beha e in se e al ways, depending on he alue o
ai
:
•Addi i e (
=a0
i
): Depending on he sign o
bi
, he e is a sudden
posi i e o nega i e e ec a ime
.
•T ansi o y change (
< <a1 0
i
): The e is a sudden e ec a ime
ha ends g adually owa d ze o. The e ec may be posi i e o
nega i e depending on he sign o
bi
.
•Pe manen s ep (
=a1
i
): The e is a sudden e ec a ime
ha
subsequen ly emains a he new le el. The e ec may be posi i e o
nega i e depending on he sign o
bi
.
When he gene al speci ica ion o dummy a iables was es ima ed
wi h he da a, he in oduc ion o he poin s license came ou na u ally
as a ansi o y e ec , while changes in penal code esul ed in a pe -
manen s ep (see esul s sec ion).
I is well known ha he e may po en ially be mul i-collinea i y
p oblems wi h mul iple inpu models like (2). Va iance In la ion Fac o
(VIF) is a widely used measu e o es ing o his p oblem (Ga e h
e al., 2017) and p o ides an idea o how much he a iance o a
coe icien is inc eased due o collinea i y wi h he es o inpu s. These
alues a e unc ions o he coe icien s o de e mina ion (R-squa ed)
calcula ed by es ima ing eg essions o each o he inpu a iables on
all he o he inpu a iables. Se e e p oblems o collinea i y a e ound
when VIF is abo e 10, while alues abo e i e indica e mild p oblems.
4. Resul s
The ob ained esul s a e gi en in Table 2. An in e annual di e ence
was applied o all he a iables o s abilize he ime se ies mean. Log
ans o ma ion was also applied o he con inuous exogenous and
endogenous a iables, allowing he es ima ed coe icien s o be di ec ly
in e p e ed as elas ici ies, i.e., es ima ed coe icien s can be in e p e ed
as he annual pe cen age a ia ion o a ali ies when he annual a -
ia ion o he co esponding exogenous a iable is 1%. The co ec in-
e p e a ion o he dummy a iable coe icien s is ha a one-uni a -
ia ion implies an exp(coe icien )-1 pe cen pe cen age a ia ion o he
endogenous a iable.
Th ee models ha e been de eloped o analyze he ansi ion om
legisla ion o compliance depending on each o he co ne s ones o oad
sa e y. The models a e he esul o a complex p ocess o ind use ul
models wi h sensible in e p e a ions ha a e a he same ime co ec
om a s a is ical poin -o - iew.
The i s model examines whe he su eillance and en o cemen o
a ic iola ions, using ei he speci ic ( ada speed con ols and b ea h
es s) o gene ic (no. o Ci il Gua d o ice s deployed o TLE pu poses)
measu es, ha e any e ec on educing he numbe o a ic a ali ies
bea ing in mind he implemen ed legisla i e changes.
In addi ion o he legisla ion applied and he TLE ac i i ies in he
p e ious model ( aking only he no. o o ice s deployed as an in-
dica o ), he second model includes he in luence o compliance wi h
a ic laws on alcohol and speed limi s on he numbe o a ic a al-
i ies. Noncompliance is measu ed as he pe cen age o de ec ed iola-
ions o e all con ols and es s.
Finally, he hi d model is a a ian o he p eceding model wi h TLE
measu ed by he p oduc i i y o he o ice s deployed.
The absence o esidual au oco ela ion, Gaussiani y, and homo-
scedas ici y o esiduals in he diagnos ic es s epo ed in Table 2
p o es he models' co ec ness om he s a is ical poin -o - iew. One
inal bu impo an es in his con ex is o he absence o any ele an
collinea i y p oblems among he inpu a iables. Table 3 shows he VIF
coe icien s o all he con inuous inpu s conside ed in his pape
(second column) and he speci ic VIF coe icien s o each model e-
po ed in Table 2.
2
The second column (VIF O e all) shows collinea i y
o all o he a iables wi h he sole excep ion o uel consump ion (as
all VIF coe icien s a e abo e 10). Howe e , hese p oblems i ually
disappea in he h ee models conside ed, al hough Model 3 p esen s a
mino p oblem wi h one coe icien , which is app oaching i e. This is
due o hese collinea i y p oblems being explici ly conside ed in he
speci ica ion p ocess.
Table 2
Resul s o ans e unc ion es ima ions.
Independen Va iables Model I
Legisla ion and TLE
Model II
Legisla ion, TLE and Compliance
Model III
Legisla ion, TLE P oduc i i y and Compliance
Legisla ion Poin s license (nume a o ,
bi
)−0.166** (0.076) −0.199** (0.091) −0.189** (0.085)
Poin s license (denomina o ,
ai
) −0.802*** (0.129) −0.851*** (0.082) −0.854*** (0.073)
Penal Code e o m (
=b a, 1
i i
)−0.118** (0.043) −0.148*** (0.051) −0.205*** (0.054)
TLE No. police o ice s deployed −0.191** (0.090) −0.372*** (0.113)
B ea h es s −0.066* (0.038)
Speed con ols −0.201** (0.091)
P oduc i i y o police o ice s −0.121* (0.066)
Compliance Alcohol iola ions (%) 0.161** (0.075) 0.128** (0.061)
Speeding iola ions (%) −0.087 (0.162) −0.042 (0.182)
Economic Ac i i y Fuel 0.513*** (0.201) 0.699*** (0.255) 0.701*** (0.263)
Wo kdays −0.009*** (0.002) −0.006* (0.003) −0.009** (0.004)
MA(12) 0.473*** (0.094) 0.473*** (0.097) 0.414*** (0.101)
Cons an −0.089*** (0.018) −0.089*** (0.019) −0.075*** (0.016)
Q(4) 5.081 5.392 2.611
Q(12) 7.716 9.054 10.092
Q(24) 25.091 30.443 26.759
Ja que-Be a 3.135 (0.208) 3.682 (0.158) 2.915 (0.233)
KSL 0.069 (0.226) 0.057 (0.432) 0.061 (0.366)
H 0.702 (0.203) 0.725 (0.385) 0.704 (0.378)
No e: One, wo, and h ee as e isks indica e pa ame e signi icance a 10%, 5%, and 1%, espec i ely.
2
Dummy a iables a e no es ed o collinea i y as he e is no poin in cal-
cula ing VIF coe icien s o dummies.
J.I. Cas illo-Manzano e al. T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
5

5. Discussion
The ollowing can be deduced om he esul s in Table 2:
Fi s , changes o legisla ion play an impo an ole in oad sa e y in
all h ee models. In o he wo ds, he implemen a ion o he p e iously
men ioned oad sa e y legal e o ms (in oduc ion o he poin s-based
d i e 's license in 2006 and e o m o he Penal Code in 2007) ha e had
posi i e and s a is ically signi ican e ec s on a ali ies on in e ci y
oads. O he s udies in he same line, conduc ed on bo h he in e na-
ional scale (Dionne e al., 2011;Zambon e al., 2007) and o he
speci ic case o Spain (see Apa icio Izquie do e al., 2011;Dadasho a
e al., 2016;No oa e al., 2010) ag ee on he posi i e e ec s o he
implemen a ion o he poin s-based d i e 's license. The changes o he
Penal Code can also be seen o ha e had a a o able and signi ican
impac , hus co obo a ing he p io li e a u e (Apa icio Izquie do
e al., 2011;Cas illo-Manzano e al., 2011). No wi hs anding, in he
case o he poin s-based d i e 's license ou esul s show ha he e ec s
o he e o m we e no pe manen bu only las ed o a limi ed amoun
o ime, disappea ing comple ely a e ei he 17 mon hs (acco ding o
Model I) o 22 mon hs (acco ding o Models II and III). O he au ho s
ound simila e idence o his, including Cas illo-Manzano e al.
(2010) o Spain, and Cas illo-Manzano and Cas o-Nuño (2012) and
Fa chi e al. (2007), among o he s, on he in e na ional scale.
Second, wi h espec o TLE, all he en o cemen ins umen s,
whe he speci ic, such as speed con ols and b ea h es s, o gene al,
measu ed by he numbe o police o ice s deployed, we e signi ican ly
associa ed wi h educ ions in oad a ali ies (Models I and II). This
would sugges ha he e is a de e ence e ec .
As can be seen in Model I, he signi icance o he speed con ols
a iable indica es ha hese a e a TLE measu e ha imp o es oad
sa e y. The alues o he coe icien s in Table 2 (in e p e ed as elas i-
ci ies) also seem o sugges ha he numbe o ehicles checked is mo e
s ongly ela ed o a educ ion in a ali ies han he numbe o b ea h
es s (as Dadasho a e al., 2016 also indica e o Spain) and ha i has
almos he same e ec as he numbe o police o ice s deployed.
Howe e , o he s udies ind he opposi e: ha b ea h es s a e mo e
e ec i e han speed con ols (Tay, 2005).
Mo eo e , i should be highligh ed ha he numbe o police o ice s
deployed esul s in a g ea e educ ion in he numbe o oad dea hs
han he numbe o checks and con ols conduc ed by hese police o -
ice s (see models II and III). This is an indica ion o he g ea e im-
po ance ha police o ice s hemsel es ha e han he speci ic con ols
ha each o hese can pe o m. This clea ly con i ms he de e ence
e ec ha Ci il Gua d o ice s ha e, as s a ed in he p io li e a u e in
e e ence o he e ec i eness o isible en o cemen by police o ice s
(Redelmeie e al., 2003;Tay, 2005). Fu he mo e, he ac ha he
e o m o he Penal Code has a mo e endu ing e ec han he poin s-
based d i e 's license (see abo e) also shows ha legisla ion o inc ease
sanc ions ein o ces TLE wi hou he need o deploy any ex a e-
sou ces, as he e is a sum o he wo e ec s.
Ou inding ha p oduc i i y is associa ed wi h a educ ion in
a ali ies p o ides a s ong a gumen o p oduc i i y being u he
pu sued and de eloped, and made a high p io i y policy op ion in new
na ional oad sa e y p og ams. Howe e , he a iable's lesse
signi icance (a 10%) in Model III, compa ed o No. Police O ice s
Deployed in Models I (5%) and II (1%) demons a es ha he human
ac o is i eplaceable. In o he wo ds, he goal has o be he maximum
p oduc i i y o he human esou ces deployed bu , once his has been
achie ed, he numbe o o ice s canno be educed, as his would un-
de mine said g ea e p oduc i i y.
Thi d, he compliance a iables (Models II and III) show ha non-
compliance wi h laws on alcohol limi s inc eases he numbe o a ic
a ali ies (while speeding iola ions do no ha e any e ec on oad
sa e y). This clea ly jus i ies bo h campaigns o p e en iola ions o
his ype and he associa ed ines, despi e he ecu ing deba e abou
whe he aising money is he p ima y conside a ion when le ying ines
(see Tay, 2010). This idea may be suppo ed by ea lie indings by
Cas illo-Manzano e al. (2017) ha poin o high socio-cul u al alcohol
ole ance in Eu opean coun ies such as Spain in conjunc ion wi h he
adi ional highe d inking pa e ns.
Noncompliance wi h speed limi s has no s a is ically signi ican e -
ec on oad a ic acciden s (Models II and III), con a y o wha is
s a ed o he Spanish case in Apa icio Izquie do e al. (2013). Wi h
espec o he numbe o a ic a ali ies, ou esul con as s wi h he
abo e-commen ed e icacy o speed limi s, which p obably e lec s he
ac ha jus conduc ing speed checks is e ec i e, wi hou any need o
ake in o accoun he numbe o posi i e de ec ions.
Las ly, in all h ee models, economic ac i i y and g ea e numbe s o
ehicles on he oad measu ed by uel consump ion inc ease he
numbe o a ic a ali ies. This esul is widely con i med by he p io
li e a u e (Ahmad and G eene, 2005;G abowski and Mo isey, 2006),
which demons a es he cohe ence o he me hodology used. An in-
c ease in a ali ies is also gene ally obse ed on weekends. In o he
wo ds, he e ec o wo kdays is nega i e o a ali ies, which would
indica e ha he e a e g ea e numbe s o a ic acciden s on weekends
due o UDAs (see Kanaan e al., 2009). This can undoub edly be a -
ibu ed o ce ain isk g oups, such as young d i e s, making a g ea e
use o ca s o hei ips and jou neys on nonwo kdays.
6. Conclusions
This pape analyzes he di e en e ec s ha he wides se o
a iables s udied o da e has on oad sa e y in Spain. The h ee di-
mensions examined a e he impac o legisla ion, T a ic Law
En o cemen , and las ly, compliance wi h oad sa e y laws. Fi s , a
b oad e iew was conduc ed o analyses o hese h ee dimensions in
he p io li e a u e. This jus i ies he complemen a y na u e o he h ee
dimensions (see Mäkinen e al., 2003) and, he e o e, he need o hem
o be s udied join ly in o de o ob ain he bes possible ne impac s o
hei c oss e ec s.
Th ee ull econome ic ad anced ime se ies models ha e been used
o es hese h ee s a egies o a b oad pe iod ha akes in bo h he
economic c isis ha began in Spain owa d he end o 2007 and sig-
ni ican ly a ec ed TLE unding and he beginning o he subsequen
eco e y. In sho , a pe iod o ab up economic changes which, ac-
co ding o ou esul s (see esul s o he Fuel a iable in Table 2), had a
signi ican e ec on oad sa e y.
In all h ee models, he wo oad sa e y legal e o ms implemen ed
Table 3
VIF coe icien s.
Va iables VIF O e all VIF Model 1 VIF Model 2 VIF Model 3
No. o police o ice s 13.957 1.171 1.354
B ea h es s 11.022 1.305
Speed con ols 68.508 2.488
Police o ice p oduc i i y 105.153 4.934
Alcohol iola ions (%) 14.453 1.208 1.714
Speeding iola ions (%) 35.947 2.518 4.266
Fuel 2.823 2.291 2.481 2.165
J.I. Cas illo-Manzano e al. T anspo Policy 75 (2019) 1–9
6
du ing he pe iod unde s udy, he poin s-based d i e 's license and he
oughening o he Penal Code we e all signi ican ly ela ed o a e-
duc ion in a ali ies on in e ci y oads, which sugges s ha sa e oad
beha io may ha e been achie ed h ough de e ence. Howe e ,
whe eas he e ec s o he i s change o he law we e obse ed o be
ansi o y and o las unde wo yea s, he e ec s o he second, he
e o m o he Penal Code, pe sis ed o e ime.
Su eillance o iola ions, h ough b ea h es s and speed de ec ion
ada s, and he numbe o police o ice s deployed, ha e a de e ence
e ec and educe oad a ic a ali ies. In addi ion, in line wi h o he
s udies ha ha e highligh ed he e ec i eness o speed en o cemen o
imp o ing oad sa e y (Bo eghi e al., 2017;De Waa d and Rooije s,
1994;Soole e al., 2013), ou esul s show ha speed con ols by ada
appea o be he mos e ec i e o all he di e en ypes o su eillance
me hods o oad a ali ies. This is good news o coun ies wi h igh
budge s—as was he case in Spain du ing he analyzed pe iod—gi en
hei lowe pe -uni cos compa ed o b ea h es s.
Howe e , he s a is ical signi icance o he coe icien ha measu es
he in luence o speed con ols by ada con as s wi h he lack o sig-
ni icance o he coe icien associa ed wi h noncompliance wi h speed
limi s. This, pe haps, e lec s he ac ha he me e exis ence o ada s
migh he desi ed e ec , i espec i e o he numbe o iola ions de-
ec ed. This would also p o ide an empi ical basis o ini ia ing a dis-
cussion in Spain abou , o example, a p uden elaxa ion o maximum
speed limi s om 120 o 130 km pe hou (app ox. 75 o 80 mph) on
ce ain mo e ad anced sec ions o highways and eeways when a ic
and wea he condi ions allow ( h ough he implemen a ion o Va iable
o Dynamic Speed Limi s). This is ac i ely being called o by some
sec o s (acco ding o RACE, The Royal Au omobile Club o Spain, 80%
o d i e s would suppo a measu e o his ype: h ps://www. ace.es/
no as-de-p ensa/el-80-de-los-conduc o es-espanoles-es an-a- a o -de-
subi -los-limi es-de- elocidad). In his con ex , he esul s o ou pape
would also indica e ha aising he speed limi s should be accompanied
by he ins alling o ada s o moni o speed along any such sec ions.
On he o he hand, noncompliance wi h a ic laws go e ning al-
cohol consump ion seems o inc ease he numbe o a ic a ali ies.
This should come as no su p ise in a coun y like Spain, whe e he e is a
g ea e social ole ance o alcohol consump ion (see Cas illo-Manzano
e al., 2017,2018). Howe e , o he cases should also be conside ed,
such as some Scandina ian coun ies whe e d unk-d i ing is also as-
socia ed wi h a la ge sha e o oad a ali ies bu he e is a lowe ol-
e ance o d inking and d i ing (see e.g., Gus a sson and Fo sman, 2013
o Sweden, and Leg and e al., 2014 o Finland). The e o e, compa ed
o speed iola ions, whe e he e o can be pu in o s eng hening de-
e ence measu es, he s a egy o educing iola ions o exceeding
he alcohol limi mus be mo e subs an ial and complex. In his ega d,
he solu ion migh be o pu he s ess on p e en ion (wi h, e.g., edu-
ca ional publici y campaigns a ge ed a speci ic isk g oups such as
no ice d i e s), and ein o cing con ol policies and su eillance ac-
i i ies.
Las ly, ou esul s unde sco e he i eplaceable ole o human e-
sou ces in educing he numbe o a ic a ali ies. Human esou ces
a e an indispensable componen ha enables he implemen ed s a e-
gies o achie e hei ull e ec i eness h ough legisla ion. In addi ion,
he alue (and signi icance) o he coe icien o police o ice s o e
ha o hei p oduc i i y, measu ed by numbe s o epo ed iola ions,
highligh he wo k done by law en o cemen , no only wi h espec o
punishmen bu also de e ence and aising in e ci y oad use s'
awa eness by hei me e p esence.
To summa ize, all hese conclusions join ly demons a e ha , i he
aim is o op imize oad sa e y esul s, he e mus be a joined-up ap-
p oach based on hese h ee dimensions: T a ic Legisla ion + T a ic
Law En o cemen + Compliance. The e o e, i is essen ial o in es -
men s o be made in hese s a egies o comba oad acciden s. Hill e al.
(2017),Wagenaa e al. (2005) and Apa icio Izquie do e al. (2013) all
a i ed a he same conclusion and, in he case o he las o hese
s udies, speci ically o he numbe o police o ice s deployed and
b ea h es a iables o he Spanish case, al hough o a pe iod p io o
he legisla i e e o ms conside ed in he p esen s udy. Fu he mo e, as
s a ed, he p esen s udy akes in he yea s o se e e economic c isis
ha a ec ed he Spanish economy om he end o 2007 on, when hese
ins umen s we e subjec ed o cu backs, which, as he s a is ics o e-
cen yea s would seem o sugges , may ha e exace ba ed he acciden
a e (Cas o-Nuño e al., 2018;DGT, 2018).
Funding and Acknowledgemen
This wo k was suppo ed by he Minis y o Economy and
Compe i eness (Spain) and Eu opean Regional De elopmen Fund
(Eu opean Union) [g an ECO2015-64996-P MINECO/FEDER].
The au ho s would like o exp ess hei g a i ude o he Fundación
Map e (P ojec numbe 2830/0085) o hei inancial suppo . The
o iginal s udy concep and ini ial con ac s was also p o ided by
Fundación MAPFRE. We also exp ess ou g a i ude o he Spanish
Gua dia Ci il de T á ico o he da a.
Appendix A. Supplemen a y da a
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