JAIRM, 2021 – 11(1), Online ISSN: 2014-4806 – P in ISSN: 2014-4865
h ps://doi.o g/10.3926/jai m.186
Applying Ai po Cen ali y as an Ope a ional Con inui y Indica o
Eliane B i o 1, Ma ia Emília Bal aza 2, Jo ge Miguel Reis Sil a 1
1Uni e si y o Bei a In e io – UBI, Facul y o Enginee ing, Depa men o Ae ospace Sciences (Po ugal)
2CERIS, Ins i u o Supe io Técnico, Uni e sidade de Lisboa (Po ugal)
eliane.b i [email protected] , [email protected] , jm [email protected]
Recei ed Janua y, 2021
Accep ed June, 2021
Abs ac
Pu pose: The esea ch aims o p opose a me hodology o es ima e he eliabili y o he B azilian
ai po ne wo k (domes ic passenge a ic), based on he cen ali y o ai po s (Ne wo k
Theo y).
Design/me hodology: The applied me hodologies a e ela ed o Ne wo k Theo y, a b anch o
G aph Theo y, and eliabili y. Reliabili y is associa ed wi h he good unc ioning o a p oduc o
sys em, he absence o b eaks o ailu es in each pe iod and he en i onmen al condi ions o
use o he i em. The da a used e e o he pe iod 2000-2018 and we e ob ained om he
sec o 's egula o y body in B azil. The s udy allows o es ima e he eliabili y o he ai po
ne wo k, based on he cen ali y o ai po s (Ne wo k Theo y).
Findings: The esul s allow ai po s o be classi ied in o h ee g oups: adequa e con ex ,
wo ying con ex and c i ical con ex , hus signalling ai po s ha may s op ope a ing egula
domes ic a ic.
Resea ch limi a ions/implica ions: The s udy does no aim o o e lap o eplace con en ional
analyses, ecognized by he esul s, and applied o e ime. Howe e , o p esen a new ool ha
allows he moni o ing and p elimina y analysis o ai po ne wo ks, mainly domes ic and
egional ne wo ks, signalling o ai po ope a o s, egula o s, and ai lines he need o
in e en ion (measu es o e e se he end) in he ne wo k, hus allowing, economic
de elopmen and equi able access o all egions.
O iginali y/ alue: The p oposal o a complemen a y me hodology based on he cen ali y o
ai po s o analyze ope a ional con inui y.
Keywo ds: Ai T anspo , Ai po s, Cen ali y, Ne wo k Reliabili y, Ne wo k Theo y
-1-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
To ci e his a icle:
B i o, E., Bal aza , M. E., & Reis Sil a, J. M. (2021). Applying ai po cen ali y as an ope a ional con inui y
indica o . Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen , 11(1), 1-15. h ps://doi.o g/10.3926/jai m.186
1. In oduc ion
Du ing he wen ie h cen u y ai anspo played an impo an ole in B azilian economic and social
de elopmen , being conside ed as an elemen o he coun y's p oduc i e dynamics ans o ma ion (Minis é io
do Planejamen o, 2011). In his con ex , he S a e helped consolida e ai anspo a ion as an essen ial ins umen
o na ional in eg a ion, h ough public policies and in es men s in ai po in as uc u e and ci il ai na iga ion.
The B azilian ai po ne wo k unde wen signi ican changes in ecen yea s, aiming o mee he demand o he
use o ai po se ices and imp o e he quali y o se ices p o ided. In 2011, se e al in es men s we e made in
he anspo a ion in as uc u e sec o in B azil. Those ela ed o capaci y expansion aimed mainly a mee ing
he needs ela ed o he Wo ld Cup in 2014 and he Olympic Games in 2016 (B i o, 2017). The e we e also
changes in he s uc u e o owne ship, managemen , and ope a ion, highligh ing in his sense he p ocess o
ai po concessions s a ed in 2011. Du ing he pe iod 2011-2018, 11 p i a e ai po s we e g an ed o he p i a e
sec o . These accoun ed o 53.8% o egula domes ic passenge a ic in 2018.
Ai anspo was also included in he Plu iannual Plan (Plano Plu ianual – PPA) o he B azilian go e nmen .
One o he main axes o he PPA 2012-2015 (Minis é io do Planejamen o, 2011) was he expansion o he
p o ision o egula ai anspo , wi h he inco po a ion o new ai po s and new ou es, inc easing he numbe
o ai po s and ou es se ed by egula ai anspo a ion. The PPA 2016-2019 (Minis é io do Planejamen o,
2015) includes a speci ic p og am o he sec o he Ci il A ia ion Thema ic P og am, whe e i is possible o
highligh objec i es such as o adap he p ocessing capaci y o ai c a , passenge s and ca goes o exis ing, and
u u e demand h ough s udies and in es men s o inc ease he a ailabili y o in as uc u e in he 270 ai po s
co e ed by he Regional A ia ion P og am (ai po s wi h a mo emen o less han o equal o 1 million
passenge s pe yea ). Mo eo e , o inc ease he numbe o scheduled ai anspo a ion se ices o passenge s
and ca go by inc easing he numbe o ou es se ed by egula ai anspo a ion o passenge s and ca go o
1,000. The P og am was designed o mee he Uni ed Na ions De elopmen P og am's Sus ainable
De elopmen Objec i es (Uni ed Na ions, 2015), especially Goal 9, Goal 9.1 De eloping eliable, sus ainable,
and esilien quali y in as uc u e including egional and c oss-bo de in as uc u e o suppo economic
de elopmen and human well-being, wi h a ocus on equi able access and a o dabili y o all.
I is impo an o no e ha al hough he policies ha e had objec i es such as inc easing he numbe o ai po s
and ou es, hus inc easing he p o ision o scheduled passenge ai anspo se ices, he numbe o ai po s
wi h egula ligh s and he numbe o connec ions dec eased o e he pe iod 2000 -2018, which in luenced he
cen ali y o he ai po s in he ne wo k. Ai po s wi h low cen ali y can signal u u e ailu es ( up u es), ha is,
hey can signal a possible in e up ion in he ope a ion o egula ligh s (inope abili y).
Acco ding o G ubesic, Ma isziw, Mu ay and Snedike (2008), connec i i y issues a e undamen al o any
ne wo k, since i s pu pose is o es ablish and main ain connec i i y be ween he se o in e ac ing elemen s o
acili a e he mo emen o aluable goods and se ices h ough a sys em. Acco ding o he au ho s, dis up ions,
also known as in e dic ion, can cause unscheduled loss o se ice esou ces wi hin a ne wo k, esul ing in cos ly
epai s and se ice in e up ions, especially o in as uc u e.
Thus, he objec i e o his s udy is o analyze he cen ali y o ai po s o de o es ima e he eliabili y o he
B azilian ai po ne wo k, classi ying hem in o h ee g oups: adequa e con ex , wo ying con ex and c i ical
con ex . The classi ica ion iden i ies possible ai po s ha will no longe ope a e egula domes ic a ic. In
o he wo ds, i iden i ies he possible up u es in he ne wo k, signaling o he ai po ope a o s, egula o s, and
ai lines, whe e he e is a need o in e en ions (measu es o e e se he end). These in e en ions could
p o ide economic de elopmen and equi able access o all egions.
-2-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
The s udy is s uc u ed in 5 sec ions: sec ion 1 is he in oduc ion. Sec ion 2 he e iew o he li e a u e. The
me hodology is in sec ion 3, he esul s and discussions in sec ion 4 and he conclusions in sec ion 5.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Ai anspo ne wo ks ha e been s udied by se e al au ho s. Conce ning he use o he Ne wo k Theo y o he
s udy o ai anspo ne wo ks, Bouno a (2009) s a es ha i s applica ion has become possible due o he
a ailabili y o da a and he easy ep esen a ion o ai po sys ems. Among he au ho s who used he Ne wo k
Theo y applied o ai anspo , one can ci e Guime a, Mossa, Tu schi and Ama al (2005), who s udied he
global s uc u e o he ai po om he pe spec i e o he cen ali y o he node and he communi y s uc u e.
The au ho s conside ed he global ai po ne wo k, ep esen ing i as a g aph and applying cen ali y me ics o
classi y ai po s acco ding o hei " unc ion" in he ne wo k (cen al, connec o s, egional hubs, pe iphe al
ai po s and ul ape iphe al ai po s).
Bu ghouw (2007) analyzed he e olu ion o ae ial ne wo ks in Eu ope a e ma ke de egula ion, s a ing ha he
a ia ion ne wo k is he agg ega ion o all indi idual ai ne wo ks. Conce ning he ne wo k analysis, he main
con ibu ion o he s udy was he in oduc ion o he ne wo k concen a ion index (NC) o iden i y he le el o
concen a ion o Eu opean anspo e s.
Bouno a (2009) s udied he g ow h pa e ns o he US ai anspo ne wo k conce ning ou es, showing he
exis ence o ansi ions o opologies in he his o y o ai lines in he pe iod 1990-2007. The au ho highligh ed
he opological simila i y o mos ai line ne wo ks. The simila i y iden i ied o e ime allowed he au ho o
elabo a e on a g ow h model based on he ne wo k opology. The au ho also applied cen ali y me ics o
classi y ai po s acco ding o hei unc ion in he ne wo k: global cen e s, connec o s, egional hubs, pe iphe al
ai po s and ul ape iphe al ai po s.
Rocha (2009) in es iga ed he s uc u e and e olu ion o B azil’s ai po ne wo k om 1995 o 2006 in e ms o
ou es, connec ions, passenge s, and ca go. Some s uc u al cha ac e is ics ag eed wi h he indings o o he
ai po ne wo ks. The analysis e ealed a dynamic s uc u e, wi h ai po s and ou es shi ing in impo ance. The
esul s indica e ha he ne wo k sh ank in e ms o ou es bu g ew in passenge numbe s and ca go olume.
Acco ding o Newman (2010), he me ics o cen ali y in he analysis o ne wo ks ha e di e en concep s o
impo ance, being e y use ul o iden i y and classi y he mos impo an nodes o edges in he ne wo k. Zhang
Cao, Du and Cai (2010) analyzed he e olu ion o he Chinese ai po ne wo k using he complex ne wo k
heo y. The s udy included opology, a ic, and he in e ac ion be ween hem. The au ho s also analyzed he
ela ionship be ween ne wo k e olu ion and he de elopmen o he Chinese economy.
Rod iguez-Deniza, Suau-Sanchez and Vol es-Do ac (2013) adap ed he well-known cen ali y indica o o he ai
anspo con ex and de eloped a new ai po connec i i y measu e, using i o de ine an al e na i e ai po
classi ica ion me hod, he me hod being applied o he US home ne wo k.
B i o (2017) analyzed he e olu ion o he B azilian ai po ne wo k in he pe iod 2000-2015 (in e na ional
passenge a ic). Applying he me hodology o Ne wo k Analysis, Gini Index and HHI, he s udy aimed o
iden i y and explain he main elemen s ha in luenced he ans o ma ion o he opology o he ai po
ne wo k in B azil. Wong, Cheung, Zhang and Wang (2017) s udied he global ai anspo ne wo k using
opological me ics and a ic olume, de eloping an “ai po cen ali y index (ACI)”.
Wong, Zhang, Cheung and Chu (2019) in es iga ed he “my h” ha LCCs end o ocus hei business on
seconda y ai po s. F om he Ai po Cen ali y Index (ACI) de eloped by Wong e al. (2017), he au ho s
es ablished pa ame e s based on cen ali y me ics o classi y ai po s.
Mazza isi, Zaoli, Lillo, Delgado, and & Gu ne (2020) ocused on me ics o cen ali y and causali y, measu ing,
espec i ely, he impo ance o a node and he p opaga ion o dis u bances along he links (links). The au ho s
ha e p oposed gene aliza ions o hese me ics, p o ing ha hey a e sui able o ATM applica ions. Aydın,
Ka adayi and Ülengin (2020) p oposed a Da a En elopmen Analysis (DEA) model in eg a ed wi h a eg ession-
-3-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
based eedback mechanism and social ne wo k analysis o assess he pe o mance o he 45 majo ai lines in he
wo ld. The me hod allowed o classi y he e icien Decision-Making Uni s (DMUs), conside ing hei quali ies,
using he concep o eigen ec o cen ali y.
Conce ning eliabili y, his opic has been discussed in se e al s udies. G ubesic e al. (2008) e iewed and
compa ed some app oaches ha e alua e he impo ance o in as uc u es and he ulne abili y o ne wo ks.
The au ho highligh ed he signi ican di e ences be ween he measu es o he impo ance o he in as uc u es
and ne wo k pe o mance, as well as he need o a clea unde s anding o he isks o in e dic ion and
ulne abili y assessmen o c i ical in as uc u es.
Kozłowski (2015) p esen ed he ques ion o ensu ing con inui y o ope a ion a an ai po . The au ho s udied
p oblems ela ed o he ope a ion. I was de ined a eliabili y and eadiness unc ion ela ed o c i ical p ocesses
(ai c a ope a ions and g ound handling) and special p ocesses ( echnical main enance o in as uc u e, ci il
a ia ion p o ec ion agains ac s o unlaw ul in e e ence, secu i y he s a e bo de , escue, and i e igh ing).
Bu bidge (2016) complemen ed EUROCONTROL's analysis o ope a ional and business isks a an ai po
conside ing he po en ial consequences o clima e change, highligh ing he need o de elop esilience o hese
isks.
Bal aza , Rosa and Sil a (2018) using he MACBETH app oach (measu emen o a ac i eness using a ca ego y-
based assessmen echnique), c ea ed a hie a chical addi i e alue model, buil wi h c i e ion weigh s and alue
scales de i ed om expe judgmen s and he compa ison o di e en e e ence le els and pe o mance p o iles.
The esul s allowed o iden i y de iciencies ha equi e u gen in e en ion and co ec i e measu es o hei
con inuous imp o emen .
Yang (2020) applied mul iple linea eg ession o iden i y ac o s ha con ibu e o he pe cep ion o ai c a
noise pollu ion isk among esiden s nea Taoyuan and Kaohsiung In e na ional Ai po s, in Taiwan.
The pape s co obo a ed he unde s anding o he e ec i eness o Ne wo k Theo y and isk analysis as analysis
ools in s udies on ai anspo . The di e en app oaches allowed a new look a hese me hodologies, hus
expanding he insigh s on he possibili ies and o ms o hei applica ions o he s udy o ai anspo ne wo ks.
3. Me hodology
The i s me hodology applied o he s udy is Ne wo k Theo y, a ecen b anch o G aph Theo y. Bouno a
(2009) poin s ou ha he use o he Ne wo k Theo y o he s udy o ai anspo ne wo ks has become
possible due o he a ailabili y o da a and he easy ep esen a ion o ai po sys ems. Acco ding o Bu ghouw
(2007), he a ia ion ne wo k is he agg ega ion o all ai ne wo ks (ai lines, ai po s, and ai a ic). This concep
is b oad and needs o be na owed. In his s udy, he idea o a ne wo k was associa ed wi h he se o ai po s
ha ope a e egula domes ic passenge a ic in B azil. Da a on ai anspo du ing he pe iod 2000-2018 we e
ob ained om he Na ional Ci il A ia ion Agency (Agência Nacional de A iação Ci il – ANAC, 2019a), he
sec o 's egula o y agency. The ne wo k was classi ied as no di ec ed due o he use o he passenge ’s o al
numbe on he connec ions (emba ka ion and disemba ka ion). Ai po s a e iden i ied by ICAO code.
The Open G aph Viz (Gephi) pla o m was used o c ea e g aphical ep esen a ions o he ne wo k. G aphic
ep esen a ion is a way o isualizing sys ems o di e en sizes and ypes. Topology is he e m ha desc ibes
you layou and o ganiza ion, ha is, how he elemen s o a ne wo k a e a anged and connec ed. The s udy
ne wo k was cha ac e ized as scale- ee. In his ype o ne wo k he e a e a small numbe o ai po s ha ha e a
high numbe o connec ions, known as hubs, which con as s wi h many ai po s wi h ew connec ions. In his
s udy, Geo Layou and Ci cle Pack Layou dis ibu ions we e applied o ep esen he ne wo k. These
dis ibu ions allow o isualize he ne wo k acco ding o he geog aphic posi ion o he ai po s and in a
hie a chical way (con ex , egion, and cen ali y), espec i ely. Ai po s ha e been classi ied as impo an . The
la ge he node (ai po ) is, he highe i s cen ali y in he ne wo k. The pla o m also allows analyzing he
ela ionships among i s componen s h ough a se o me ics, and i is possible o emphasize aspec s such as
-4-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
ai po s cen ali y. The cen ali y was measu ed by calcula ing Eigen ec o Cen ali y (Equa ion 1), which
indica es he mos cen al ai po s in he ne wo k, and i s concep was in oduced by Bonacich (1972).
EC (i)=
μ
1(i)= 1
λ
1
A
μ
1=1
λ
1∑j=1
naij
μ
1(j)
(1)
Whe e μ1 is he se o ai po neighbou s i, λ1 is he la ges eigen alue, A is he adjacency ma ix, n is he numbe
o ai po s (nodes) and aij o he adjacency ma ix ep esen s he connec ions om ai po i o ai po j.
Eigen ec o Cen ali y measu es he quali y o connec ions a ai po s, ha is, how signi ican he connec ions
a e, ega dless o he numbe o passenge s anspo ed. The e a e o he me ics ha measu e cen ali y, such as
Be weenness, Closeness and Ha monic Cen ali y and Eccen ici y. Lodan e al (2014), p esen ed a me hodology
o he de ec ion o c i ical ai po s, based on Be weenness Cen ali y. The s udy helps de elop con ingency
plans o an app op ia e esponse o he closu e o an ai po in he global ai anspo ne wo k (ATN) in he
e en o an a ack. Th ough he wo k, i is possible o iden i y he ai po s, whose isola ion would cause he
g ea es losses in ne wo k connec i i y. Howe e , Eigen ec o Cen ali y be e se es he ocus o he cu en
s udy.
By using he Eigen ec o Cen ali y as he base a iable o he ope a ional con inui y indica o , i becomes
possible o calcula e i , conside ing he impo ance o he connec ions. A low Eigen ec o Cen ali y indica es
ha he ai po 's connec ions a e o li le ele ance, hus inc easing he possibili y o i no longe ope a ing
egula a ic (inope a i e, o egula ligh s). A highe Eigen ec o Cen ali y indica es ha he ai po is
connec ed o o he ai po s wi h mo e cen al posi ions in he ne wo k, ha is, i is connec ed o o he s wi h
ele an posi ions in he ne wo k, which educes he possibili y o i becoming inope a i e (wi hou he
ope a ion o egula ligh s). The in e up ion in he ope a ion o egula ligh s a ec s, mainly, egions whe e
access by o he means o anspo is educed o di icul , ei he due o dis ance o egional cha ac e is ics.
The second me hodology applied o he s udy is ela ed o eliabili y. Foglia o and Ribei o (2009), s a es
eliabili y, in i s b oades sense, is associa ed wi h he success ul ope a ion o a p oduc o sys em, he absence o
b eaks o ailu es in a pe iod and unde en i onmen al condi ions o use o he i em. In he s udy, Foglia o and
Ribei o (2009) s a es ha he isk unc ion h ( ), also known as ailu e a e o isk a io, is one o he mos used
in eliabili y measu es and can be in e p e ed as he amoun o isk associa ed wi h a uni (componen o sys em)
a ime . S ill ollowing he au ho , he isk unc ion is e y use ul in analyzing he isk o which a uni is exposed
o e ime, se ing as a basis o compa ison be ween uni s wi h di e en cha ac e is ics. In his s udy he
es ima o o
^
h( )
will be applied o la ge samples:
^
h( )= ¯
N( )− ¯
N( +Δ )
¯
N( )Δ
(2)
Whe e
^
h( )
i is he isk a e o be calcula ed o each class in e al.
¯
N( )
i is he numbe o su i ing
uni s a ime . Δ is he class in e al.
¯
N( +Δ )
i is he numbe o ailu es a ime
( +Δ )
is he sum
o ailu es a Time T.
Adap ing he isk unc ion o he s udy o he ai po ne wo k, conce ning ope a ional con inui y,
^
h( )
i is
he isk o an ai po ailing o ope a e egula domes ic a ic. I is calcula ed o each class in e al o he
Eigen ec o Cen ali y o ai po s ha ha e ceased ope a ing in he ne wo k in he pe iod 2000-2018, ha is, a
ime . Whe e N is he numbe o ai po s ha s opped ope a ing egula domes ic a ic a ime .
¯
N( )
i is
he numbe o ai po s ha con inued o ope a e egula domes ic a ic a ime . Δ is he class in e al o he
Eigen ec o Cen ali y.
¯
N( +Δ )
i is he numbe o ai po s ha s opped ope a ing egula domes ic a ic
a ime +Δ . When he isk a e
^
h( )
was calcula ed, he alues o he a iables
¯
N( )
,
¯
N( +Δ )
and
N we e ans o med in o loga i hm alues as a unc ion o hei ampli ude de ia ion in ela ion o he a iable
Eigen ec o Cen ali y o ai po s alues.
-5-

Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
Acco ding o Foglia o and Ribei o (2009), he e a e wo basic ca ego ies o he isk unc ion: (i) inc easing isk
unc ion (CRF), which desc ibes cases in which he incidence o isk does no dec ease wi h ime; and (ii)
dec easing isk unc ion (FRD), adequa e o desc ibe si ua ions in which he incidence o isk does no inc ease
wi h ime. I was obse ed in his s udy ha he isk o an ai po ceasing o ope a e egula a ic does no
inc ease wi h ime; ha is, he isk unc ion is dec easing (downwa d cu e). The la ge he Eigen ec o
Cen ali y, he lowe he isk o he ai po ailing o ope a e egula a ic (Figu e 1).
Figu e 1. Illus a ion o an ai po ope a ing con inui y isk cu e - egula a ic
By adap ing he Pa e o ABC cu e p inciple o he ope a ional con inui y isk cu e o ai po s (Figu e 1), we
can hen sepa a e hem in o h ee g oups: i) adequa e con ex - Eigen ec o Cen ali y a ime abo e 100% o
Eigen ec o Maximum cen ali y o ai po s which ceased o ope a e du ing he s udy pe iod; ii) wo ying
con ex - Eigen ec o Cen ali y a ime abo e 80%, bu below 100%; and iii) c i ical con ex - Eigen ec o
Cen ali y a ime below 80%. The pe cen age o alues can be adjus ed o sui each case.
4. Analysis and Discussion
Cu en ly, he B azilian public ai po ne wo k is made up o 578 ai po s (ANAC, 2019b), ha ing eached 715
ai po s in 2013 (B i o, 2017). All majo ci ies ha e a leas one ai po . Howe e , i is essen ial o no e ha he
dis ibu ion o he ne wo k ac oss B azilian e i o y was in luenced by his o ical and poli ical ac o s (B i o,
2017). The s a es o Minas Ge ais, São Paulo, Bahia and he Rio G ande do Sul accoun o 53.5% o public
ai po s (Table 1).
The Cen al-Wes egion is he second in a ea and he ou h in popula ion. I s ac i i ies a e based on ag icul u e
and ou ism. I is he egion o Ce ado and he B azilian Pan anal. As well as he Amazon egion, depending on
he ime o yea , he ae ial mode is also he only way o access some locali ies.
The No heas egion is he hi d in a ea and he second in popula ion. Tou ism is he leading egion ac i i y,
ollowed by ag icul u e and ex ac i e indus y. The Indus ial p oduc ion is in he coas al s ip. The No he n
egion is he la ges in a ea and he i h in popula ion, based on p ima y ac i i ies such as ex ac i e indus y and
ag icul u e and li es ock and seconda y, he la e in he Manaus F ee T ade Zone. Because i is he Amazon
egion, access o many locali ies is di icul depending on he egional cha ac e is ics and depending on he ime
o he yea , he ae ial mode is he only o m o access.
The Sou heas egion is he ou h in a ea and he i s in popula ion. I co esponds o hal he na ional GDP,
ha ing he mos signi ican indus ial pa k in he coun y, a la ge e ia y sec o , as well as ag icul u al and oil
p oduc ion. Tou ism is ep esen a i e oo. The Sou h egion is he i h in a ea and he hi d in popula ion. I has
he second la ges indus ial pa k in B azil and ag icul u al p oduc ion is mode n, making he egion he second
la ges na ional GDP.
-6-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
Region S a e S a e’s capi al Numbe o Ai po s
Midwes
Goiás
Ma o G osso
Ma o G osso do Sul
Dis i o Fede al
Goiânia
Cuiabá
Campo G ande
B asília
30
28
21
1
No heas
Bahia (*)
Cea á
Pa aíba
Piauí
Ma anhão
Pe nambuco
Rio G ande do No e
Alagoas
Se gipe
Sal ado
Fo aleza
João Pessoa
Te esina
São Luiz
Reci e
Na al
Maceió
A acajú
66
13
12
12
11
11
5
3
1
No h
Pa á
Amazonas
Tocan ins
Rondônia
Ac e
Amapá
Ro aima
Belém
Manaus
Palmas
Po o Velho
Rio B anco
Macapá
Boa Vis a
30
24
10
9
5
2
1
Sou heas
Minas Ge ais (*)
São Paulo (*)
Rio de Janei o
Espí i o San o
Belo Ho izon e
São Paulo
Rio de Janei o
Vi ó ia
78
75
11
7
Sou h Rio G ande do Sul (*)
Pa aná
San a Ca a ina
Po o Aleg e
Cu i iba
Flo ianópolis
53
37
22
(*) The s a es ha concen a e he mos signi ican numbe o public ai po s
Table 1. Geog aphical dis ibu ion o he B azilian public ai po ne wo k – 2019 (ANAC da a, 2019a)
Compa ing he numbe o passenge s anspo ed wi h he numbe o ai po s in ope a ion (Table 2), he e is an
imbalance be ween demand and supply o ai po in as uc u e. While he e was a 232.8% inc ease in he
numbe o passenge s in he pe iod 2000-2018, he e was a dec ease o 20.4% in he numbe o ai po s
ope a ing egula domes ic ligh s. The geog aphical dis ibu ion, he dec ease was 33.3% in he Midwes , 3.6%
in he No heas , 50.0% in he No h and 32.1% in he Sou h. Howe e , he e was an inc ease o 48.3% in he
egion Sou heas , due o 14 new ai po s ope a ion in he s a e o Minas Ge ais in 2018. The imbalance has
consequences, wo o which can be highligh ed. The i s is a signi ican concen a ion o a ic.
Rocha (2009) indica ed his p oblem in his s udy, s a ing ha he numbe o ou es in he B azilian
ne wo k had educed in he pe iod 1995-2006, bu he numbe o passenge s and ca go had inc eased.
The imbalance has consequences, wo o which can be highligh ed. The i s is a signi ican
concen a ion o a ic. The concen a ion gene a es conges ion in one pa o he ai po ne wo k
and idleness in ano he , is explained mainly by wo ac o s: I) ai anspo is signi ican ly ela ed o
economic ac i i y. Regions wi h highe economic ac i i y ha e g ea e olume o people using he ai
way in hei displacemen s. II) ai lines concen a e hei ope a ions on ou es ha gua an ee hem a
highe occupancy a e on ai c a . The la e has he second consequence: he educ ion o he numbe
o locali ies se ed by scheduled ligh s and he unde -u iliza ion o he ai po ne wo k.
In e ms o unde u iliza ion, 267 ai po s (46.2%) ope a ed egula domes ic a ic a some poin in
he s udy pe iod (Table 2). The numbe o ai po s in ope a ion and he numbe o connec ions
dec eased o e he s udy pe iod (Table 2), which in luenced he cen ali y o ai po s (impo ance),
especially hose o smalle size. Ai po s wi h low cen ali y can signal u u e ailu es in he ne wo k,
ha is, hey can indica e a possible in e up ion in he se ice and/o ou pu om he ope a ion o
scheduled ligh s.
-7-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
Time T In ope a ion Inope a i e To al Ai po s
(*)
Numbe o
connec ions
Numbe o
passenge s
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
167
151
153
132
132
151
151
147
138
136
140
142
128
134
120
120
114
112
133
100
116
114
135
135
116
116
120
129
131
127
125
139
133
147
147
153
155
134
267
1,717
1,693
1,772
1.364
1.378
2.038
2,577
2,964
2,834
1,464
1,607
1,711
1,566
1,425
1,251
1,314
1,242
1,156
1,199
27,981,620
29,997,122
29,556,554
27,570,810
31,263,675
37,392,428
39,859,832
42,032,491
48,550,341
57,078,874
69,205,465
82,265,430
89,004,000
89,701,610
94,336,178
94,950,156
86,983,361
88,467,153
93,126,895
Δ% 2000-2018 -20.4 34.0 - -30.2 232.8
(*) Numbe o ai po s ope a ed by egula domes ic a ic a some poin in he pe iod 2000-2018
Table 2. Con ex o ai po s in ime T - egula domes ic a ic – B azil (ANAC da a, 2019a)
G ubesic e al. (2008) poin s ou ha he app oaches o e alua e he ulne abili y o he ne wo k a e
aimed a answe ing wo ques ions conce ning he impo ance: i) wha he mos i al nodes a e and/o
a cs in a ne wo k; ii) how obus a ne wo k is o node and/o a c ailu e. Acco ding o G ubesic e al.
(2008), in e dic ions a e impo an in assessing he obus ness o he ne wo k and ha unde s anding
he impac s o aul s o en depends on ob aining he mos comple e "image" o he damage ha can
occu . In his s udy, we subs i u e node by ai po and a c by connec ion, as well as he ocus o
impo ance is in e ed, ha is, he ocus is he less impo ance ai po s in he ne wo k. Rega ding
damages, hey a e ela ed o he con inui y o he se ice, ha is, hey a e ela ed o he main enance o
de elopmen o a quali y, eliable and esilien domes ic ai po ne wo k, allowing economic
de elopmen and equi able access o all B azilian egions.
A o al o 226 ailu es we e obse ed in he pe iod 2000-2018. The minimum Eigen ec o Cen ali y o
he ai po s ha s opped ope a ing he egula a ic du ing he s udy pe iod was 0.0019 and he
maximum 0.2054. The Eigen ec o Cen ali y (EC) o ai po s was di ided in o ou classes wi h an
in e al o 0.0513, and he isk a e o each class was calcula ed (Table 3).
Classes
Failu es in ime
(2000-2018)
N
Risk a e
ĥ( )
Su i ing
uni s a ime
¯
N( )
Failu es in ime
+
Δ
¯
N( +Δ )
Class in e al
Δ
0.0000 < EC ≤ 0.0513
0.0513 < EC ≤ 0.1027
0.1207 < EC ≤ 0.1540
0.1540 < EC ≤ 0.2054
171
34
14
7
5.08
0.79
0.41
0.31
226
55
21
7
55
192
212
219
0.0513
0.0513
0.0513
0.0513
SN226
Table 3. Ai po Ope a ional Con inui y Risk Ra e - Regula Domes ic T a ic (ANAC da a, 2019a)
-8-
Jou nal o Ai line and Ai po Managemen 11(1), 1-15
Adap ing he Pa e o ABC Cu e p inciple o he ope a ional con inui y isk cu e o ai po s (Figu e
2), we can hen classi y hem in o h ee g oups: i) adequa e con ex - Eigen ec o Cen ali y a ime
abo e 0.2054; ii) Wo ying con ex - Eigen ec o Cen ali y a ime abo e 0.1027 and below o equal
o 0.2054; and iii) c i ical con ex - Eigen ec o Cen ali y a ime less han o equal o 0.1027. The
Pa e o Cu e pe cen age alues (80-20) we e adjus ed o i he s udy bes .
The g aphical ep esen a ion o he ne wo k allows a be e unde s anding o he ai po cen ali y
applicabili y as an ope a ional con inui y indica o , and he classi ica ion o ai po s conce ning hei
con ex . In 2000, he e we e 167 ope a ing egula domes ic a ic in B azil: 50 in he adequa e con ex ,
53 in a wo ying con ex and 64 in a c i ical con ex (Figu e 3).
Figu e 2. Ai po s ope a ional con inui y isk cu e – egula domes ic a ic – B azil (ANAC da a, 2019a)
No e: The e was a small gap be ween ai po s o a oid o e lapping om geog aphical posi ioning
Figu e 3. Con ex o he ai po ne wo k in 2000 - egula domes ic a ic (ANAC da a, 2019a)
The Eigen ec o Cen ali y o he ai po s in he s udy pe iod was no cons an and consequen ly, he e we e
a ia ions in he con ex o he ai po s. In 2010, he e we e 140 ope a ing egula domes ic a ic in B azil: 50
in he adequa e con ex , 48 in a wo ying con ex and 42 in a c i ical con ex . In 2018, he scena io was 133
ai po s in ope a ion, 44 in he adequa e con ex , 43 in a wo ying con ex and 46 in a c i ical con ex . The
a ia ions can bes be obse ed in Figu e 4, which p esen s he ne wo k con ex in he wo pe iods.
-9-