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Effec s o u ban oad capaci y expansion –Expe iences om wo
No wegian cases
Aud Tennøy
⁎
, Ande s Tønnesen, F an s Gunde sen
Ins i u e o T anspo Economics –No wegian Cen e o T anspo Resea ch, Gaus adalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, No way
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Road capaci y expansion
Land-use effec s
Induced affic
Conges ion
U ban a eas
Planning
ABSTRACT
This a icle p esen s nuanced and con ex - ela ed empi ical esea ch on he affic-inducing e -
ec s o u ban oad capaci y expansion wo No wegian ci ies. I ocusses on he indi ec and long-
e m land-use effec s and on land-use planning and policies, ha a e no well co e ed in exis ing
li e a u e. Unsu p isingly, esul s show affic-inducing land-use de elopmen in he pe iod a e
he oad capaci y expansions. Diffe ences in planning policy and p ac ices affec ed how affic-
inducing he land-use de elopmen was. The affic g ow h was s onge in he affec ed oad
co ido s han expec ed, and as compa ed wi h No way. No o only sho - e m conges ion elie
was ound. I is concluded ha he oad capaci y expansions we e necessa y condi ions o he
land-use sp awl, and consequen ly, con ibu ing causes o he affic g ow h. Ex-an e analyses
seem no o ha e included he land-use effec s, and his is unde s ood as pa o he explana ion
o he disc epancies be ween ex-an e expec a ions and ac ual de elopmen . In bo h cases, mu-
nicipal and egional au ho i ies cu en ly a emp o s ee land use de elopmen in di ec ions
con ibu ing o s op affic g ow h, in acco dance wi h na ional policies. Meanwhile, oad au-
ho i ies plan o new capaci y expansions in he in es iga ed co ido s. Land use effec s o he
capaci y expansions seem, again, no o be included in he assessmen s.
1. In oduc ion
Reducing affic g ow h and g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions om anspo a e long-held objec i es in many coun ies and ci ies,
bu hey ha e p o en o be difficul o achie e (Eu opean En i onmen Agency, 2018; Eu opean Commission, 2011; Owens and
Cowell, 2002; No wegian En i onmen Agency, 2015; UN Habi a , 2013). These objec i es a e also high on he agenda in he
No wegian Pa liamen ’s clima e ag eemen and he Na ional T anspo Plan, as well as in many egional and municipal plans.
Acco ding o hese policy documen s, inc easing anspo demands caused by he apid popula ion g ow h in No wegian u ban
egions should no cause g ow h in oad- affic olumes, and his is o en e med he ze o-g ow h objec i e (Minis y o Local
Go e nmen and Mode nisa ion, 2012, Minis y o T anspo and Communica ions, 2013, 2017). O he mo i a ions o ze o-g ow h
han educing GHG emissions a e imp o ing u ban anspo efficiency, li eabili y, public heal h and he local en i onmen , as well
as educing conges ion and he need o in as uc u e in es men s.
Achie ing he ze o-g ow h objec i e, as he popula ion in he u ban egion g ows, equi es ha he a e age inhabi an educes his
o he a e age daily affic olume by making ewe ips, sho e ips and/o a lowe sha e o ips as a ca d i e . A main s a egy
o achie ing his is de eloping land-use and anspo sys ems in di ec ions con ibu ing o educed anspo demand and shi s in
he modal spli owa d less ca usage (Minis y o Local Go e nmen and Mode nisa ion, 2015). This s a egy la gely leans on
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. d.2019.01.024
⁎
Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (A. Tennøy).
T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
1361-9209/ © 2019 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
T
heo e ical and empi ical knowledge conce ning how and why he spa ial s uc u e (Hu limann and Ma ch, 2012; Newman and
Kenwo hy, 1989, 2015; Næss, 2012; Næss e al., in p ess; Rode e al., 2017), as well as absolu e and ela i e quali ies o he
anspo -sys ems (Cai ns e al., 2001; Downs, 1962, 2004; Fishman e al., 2014; Li man, 2018; Noland and Lem, 2002; Walke ,
2012), affec a el beha iou and affic olumes. Based on such insigh s, he e seems o be a ela i ely widesp ead ag eemen on
how land-use and anspo sys ems ough o be de eloped o educe o delimi u ban oad- affic olumes: (i) land-use de elopmen
as cen al, u ban densifica ion and ans o ma ion a he han sp awl; (ii) imp o ing public anspo se ices and condi ions o
walking and bicycling; (iii) physical and fiscal es ic ions on p i a e ca affic (see, o ins ance, Downs, 2004; Banis e , 2008;
Newman and Kenwo hy, 2015; Rode e al., 2017; Tennøy, 2012). This unde s anding also includes ha expanding oad capaci y in
p essu ed u ban oad sys ems has affic-inducing effec s and con ibu e o affic g ow h ha would o he wise no occu ed (as we
discuss below).
I is an in e es ing pa adox ha oad capaci y expansions cu en ly a e planned and cons uc ed in ci ies ac oss No way, despi e
he s ong ocus on he ze o-g ow h objec i e, and ha No wegian planne s know abou he affic-inducing effec s o oad capaci y
expansions (Tennøy, 2010, 2012). P e ious esea ch has ound ha his among o he hings can be explained by agmen ed o -
ganiza ion and he powe dis ibu ion in land-use and anspo planning and policy, combined wi h goal conflic s (e.g. Fly bje g,
1998; B yson e al., 2015; Hull, 2008; S ead and Meije s, 2009; Tennøy and Øksenhol , 2018; Tønnesen, 2015), and deficiencies o
anspo model and cos benefi analyses (see e.g. Fly bje g e al., 2005; Li man, 2018; Me z, 2017; Ce e o, 2003; Næss e al., 2012;
Nicolaisen and Næss, 2015; Tennøy e al., 2006), which a e no in ocus he e. Ano he s and o esea ch sugges ha he ways
planne s acqui e and use knowledge when making plans, could be pa o he explana ion (K izek e al., 2009; Næss e al., 2013;
Tennøy e al., 2016). Tennøy (2012) ound ha e en hough planne s knew o , o ins ance, mechanisms in ol ed in induced affic,
ew knew and unde s ood his deep and well enough o use he knowledge in planning and ough discussions, o o explain he
complex and o en coun e -in ui i e in e ela ions be ween anspo sys ems de elopmen , land-use, a el beha iou , affic o-
lumes and conges ion o poli ical decision make s and o he s. Planne s seldom ead up on esea ch-based knowledge, and hey
explained ha his was pa ly due o lack o wha hey pe cei ed as unde s andable, ele an and applicable esea ch and doc-
umen a ion. P e ious s udies on induced affic mainly ely on agg ega ed s a is ical analyses o modelling (see, e.g. Noland and Lem,
2002 o Li man, 2018 o e iews), ha a e no necessa ily easily accessible o use ul in planning p ac ice and policy making. Fu he ,
ew p e ious s udies include land-use effec s o capaci y expansions. As a esul , his knowledge is o en ous ed o dis ega ded in
planning and decision-making p ocesses (Næss e al., 2013; Tennøy, 2012; Tennøy e al., 2016), as also ound in ecen analyses and
plans ele an in his a icle (Na ional Public Roads Adminis a ion (NPRA), 2013a, 2013b, 2016a).
The aim o his a icle is o con ibu e o exis ing li e a u e wi h mo e nuanced and con ex - ela ed empi ical in es iga ions o
affic inducing effec s o oad capaci y expansions in p essu ed u ban oad sys ems, ocusing on he less esea ched land-use effec s,
and including eflec ions on how diffe ences in land-use planning and policy affec in e ela ions and de elopmen . Th ough analyses
o longi udinal empi ical da a in wo cases o u ban oad capaci y expansions, as well as documen s udies and in e iews wi h
ele an p ac i ione s, we p esen mo e disagg ega ed analyses o he mechanisms in ol ed han mos p e ious s udies ha e done.
We hink ou analyses and findings also ha e he po en ial o in o m p ac i ione s and policymake s abou how oad capaci y
expansions affec land-use, a el beha iou , and affic, as well as he implica ions o land-use and anspo planning i sus ain-
abili y goals a e o be achie ed, possibly esul ing in hese mechanisms being mo e consciously add essed in u u e analyses and
plans. We also discuss al e na i e policy esponses o conges ion and pe cei ed demand o oad capaci y expansions, based on
findings conce ning cu en planning and ideas in he case ci ies.
We seek o answe he ollowing esea ch ques ions: How ha e u ban oad capaci y expansions affec ed land-use de elopmen ,
consequen ly affec ing affic olumes and conges ion le els, in he cases? How ha e land-use planning and policy affec ed he land-use effec s
o oad capaci y expansions? How do oad capaci y expansions affec he po en ial o s op affic g ow h in u ban a eas?
The a icle is o ganised as ollows: Sec ion 2 p esen s he heo e ical unde s andings o ming he basis o he empi ical in-
es iga ions and analyses, while Sec ion 3 delinea es he esea ch design, me hods, da a, and he main challenges expe ienced.
Sec ion 4 desc ibes he wo cases and esul s. The main conclusions a e p esen ed in Sec ion 5, ollowed by a discussion o he
significance o he esul s.
2. How u ban oad capaci y expansions affec affic olumes
P e ious esea ch has p esen ed explana ions and e idence on how oad capaci y expansions in p essu ed u ban oad sys ems
induce affic, and con ibu e o affic g ow h ha would o he wise no ha e occu ed (see, e.g. Cai ns e al., 2001; Ce e o, 2003;
Commi ee on T unk Road Assessmen s, 1994; Downs, 1962, 2004; Du an on and Tu ne , 2011, Goodwin, 1996; Li man, 2018;
McCoy and S ephens, 2014; Mog idge, 1997; Noland and Lem, 2002). This is unde s ood as being he esul o combined mechanisms,
wo king a diffe en ime scales, whe e he in e ac ions be ween land-use de elopmen , anspo -sys ems de elopmen and a el
beha iou play impo an oles.
Di ec mechanisms, which may be ac i a ed almos immedia ely and o en s eng hened la e on, a e modal shi s om o he modes
o ca s when a elling by ca becomes ela i ely as e , mo e com o able and so on compa ed wi h o he modes o anspo , and
longe ca jou neys as ime and cos o a el pe km a e educed. These mechanisms a e well unde s ood and documen ed (see, e.g.
Cai ns e al., 2001; Commi ee on T unk Road Assessmen s, 1994; Downs, 1962; Goodwin, 1996; Mog idge, 1997; Noland and Lem,
2002; Twi che , 2013), so we do no ocus on hem. Ins ead, we ocus on he less in es iga ed indi ec land-use mechanisms, wo king
in a longe ime pe spec i e. As illus a ed in Fig. 1, hese include ha oad capaci y expansions in conges ed u ban oad sys ems esul
in educed a el ime by ca , igge ing eloca ions o households and businesses in exis ing buil s uc u es in mo e anspo -
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
91
demanding and ca -dependen ways, as well as inc eased p essu e on de eloping housing, wo kplaces, e ail and so on a he ou ski s
o ci ies and u ban egions (Ce e o, 2003; Downs, 2004; Noland and Lem, 2002; Wägene and Fü s , 2004). This is a de elopmen
owa d mo e sp awled and ca -dependen u ban a eas, causing modal shi s owa ds highe ca -d i e sha es and inc eased a el
leng hs, and consequen ly o inc eased affic olumes ( ehicle kilome es, hkm) pe capi a and in o al (Næss e al., in p ess;
Newman and Kenwo hy, 2015).
In u ban a eas wi h high po en ial o sp awl, hese p ocesses con inue un il affic g ow h causes enewed conges ion, educing
he a ac i eness o de elopmen in he mo e pe iphe al u ban a eas and making he p i a e ca less compe i i e as a mode o
anspo . This is also a si ua ion whe e he e a e mo e people ‘s uck in affic’ han he e we e be o e (Downs, 2004), an u ban
s uc u e ha is ha de o se e by o he modes han ca s and a pe cei ed demand o oad capaci y expansions o o he in a-
s uc u e in es men s o ease conges ion and imp o e accessibili y.
How he mechanisms play ou depends on land-use planning and policy. To a la ge ex en , land-use de elopmen is s ee ed by
public au ho i ies, in No way as in mos Eu opean coun ies, al hough he ma ke decides wha is buil and when wi hin he lim-
i a ions o he plans decided by he au ho i ies (Nadin e al., 2018; Owens and Cowell, 2002; Tennøy and Øksenhol , 2018). The land-
use effec s o oad capaci y expansions will hence be influenced by public land-use planning and policies. I planning au ho i ies limi
g ow h in pe iphe al u ban a eas and s ee land-use de elopmen owa d dense s uc u es in a eas wi h good access o daily se ices
and compe i i e public anspo accessibili y, he affic-inducing effec s o oad capaci y expansions a e expec ed o be weake han
i planning au ho i ies allow s ong, sp awled and ca -dependen land-use de elopmen in pe iphe al u ban a eas. We in es iga e
land-use planning and policies, as well as how hese affec ed de elopmen , in ou cases.
Di e ed affic, ha is, shi s in iming and ou es, may inc ease affic olumes on expanded oads and concen a e mo e affic
o ush hou s, con ibu ing o inc ease conges ion wi hou being induced affic(Downs, 2004). O he mechanisms, such as changes
in economy, demog aphy and oad olling, also affec affic olumes (see, e.g. Downs, 2004; Noland and Lem, 2002), bu we do no
ocus on hese mechanisms in ou s udy.
3. Resea ch design, me hodology and da a
The esea ch ques ions, oge he wi h he mul i-causal na u e o he p oblem, and ou ocus on in es iga ing he mechanisms
in ol ed, call o in-dep h case s udies, longi udinal s udies and a mixed-me hods app oach (Yin, 2003). We selec ed wo cases o
u ban oad capaci y expansions in p essu ed u ban oad sys ems o ou s udy. One is loca ed in he medium-sized ci y (in a No -
wegian con ex ) o Ålesund, wi h 46 000 inhabi an s, which is he main ci y in i s egion. The o he is loca ed in he No wegian
capi al, Oslo, wi h abou 700 000 inhabi an s in he municipali y and abou 1 000 000 inhabi an s in he ci y egion. In aspec s o he
han ci y size, he cases sha e simila i ies: The oads a e loca ed in he ou e pa s o he ci ies and educing conges ion and afficon
pa allel oads we e impo an mo i a ions o cons uc ing hem. Thus, hey could be unde s ood as he same ype o oad capaci y
expansions. Ou aims we e o in es iga e how he mechanisms s udied ac ou in hese diffe en con ex s, as well as how condi ions
ela ed o land-use planning and policies affec his. We we e also inspi ed o include a case in a medium-sized ci y because we knew
ha ha esea ch in and on small and medium-sized ci ies is sca ce. Due o diffe ences in ci y size, he Ålesund case is analysed a he
ci y le el, while he Oslo case is conside ed a he egional le el.
The oad cons uc ions we e comple ed in 2002 (Ålesund) and 2009 (Oslo), which we expec ed would be a enough back in ime
o s udying he long- e m and indi ec land-use effec s o oad capaci y expansions, and a he same ime, ecen enough o allow
access o da a be o e, du ing and a e he oad capaci y expansions and o doing longi udinal analyses. The effec s o he me-
chanisms discussed in Sec ion 2 we e empi ically in es iga ed and analysed in each case, using mul iple quali a i e and quan i a i e
da a sou ces and me hods, be o e hey we e compa ed in an analy ical discussion.
The main da a sou ces we e egis e da a o a ious kinds, documen s and in e iews. Documen s, mainly plans and analyses
ela ed o he oad p ojec s, municipal and egional mas e plans, and 13 semi-s uc u ed in e iews wi h knowledgeable p ac i ione s
(eigh in he Ålesund case and six in he Oslo case; see lis o in e iewees in Appendix A and in e iew guide in Appendix B),
p o ided da a conce ning mo i a ions o he oad p ojec s and he con ex in which hey we e implemen ed. These sou ces we e also
impo an when desc ibing land-use planning egimes and p ac ices in ele an municipali ies be o e and a e he oad capaci y
expansions, as well as how he cu en si ua ion is pe cei ed. T affic da a om he No wegian Na ional Road Adminis a ion (NPRA)
Reloca ioninmo e
anspo ‐
demandingandca ‐
dependen ways
Land‐use
de elopmen
u he omci y
cen e ,sp awl
Road‐capaci y
expansion,
educed a el ime
byca Inc eased a el
leng hs
Modalshi owa d
highe ca ‐d i e
sha es Inc eased affic
olumes,e en ually
conges ionanew
Fig. 1. Illus a ion o mechanisms in ol ed when u ban oad capaci y expansions cause mo e anspo -demanding and ca -dependen land-use
de elopmen , esul ing in highe ca sha es, longe jou neys and inc eased affic olumes pe capi a and in o al.
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
92
we e used o analysing changes in affic olumes and conges ion le els. Na ional T a el Su ey da a, comp ising epo s om abou
60 000 pe sons na ionwide, we e used in analyses o changes in modal spli s (Hjo hol e al., 2014). Regis e -based commu ing s a is ics
a he census ac le el om S a is ics No way (SN, 2016) we e used in analyses o changes in commu ing dis ances, and all
commu es sho e han 200 km we e included. The commu ing s a is ics included all commu es, ega dless o anspo mode. Geo-
coded da a om he Cen al egis e o en e p ises (SN, 2017a), including all uni s in No way wi h economic ac i i y, we e used when
analysing he numbe o wo kplaces in diffe en a eas, while popula ion s a is ics (SN, 2017b) we e employed when analysing po-
pula ion de elopmen .
The main challenges in his s udy we e da a a ailabili y and o clea ly define whe he he iden ified changes we e effec s o he
oad capaci y expansions. Da a om SN (2016, 2017a, 2017b) we e a ailable only back o 2001, 2002 and 2002 espec i ely,
meaning ha we could no iden i y po en ial significan changes in ends caused by he capaci y expansions. Se e al o he in e -
iewees we e ac i e when he plans o oad capaci y expansions we e made, bu his was a long ime ago, so hey could no answe
all ou ques ions in de ail. The o he in e iewees we e no in ol ed a he ime, bu hey could answe ques ions conce ning policy
and de elopmen a e he oad capaci y expansions. Fo bo h cases, es ablishing eliable e e ence cases, p e e ably o he oad
co ido s in he same ci ies, p o ed difficul , mainly because po en ially compa able co ido s we e affec ed by he oad p ojec and/
o o he majo changes. We decided o use he gene al de elopmen in No way as e e ence, o ule ou po en ial significan effec s o
changes in na ional economy, axes, egula ions, and he like on affic and land-use de elopmen . In he analyses, dis inguishing
clea ly be ween he causal effec s o he oad capaci y expansions and effec s o ‘o he hings going on’is p oblema ic. This is a
ecu en p oblem when s udying in e ela ions be ween land-use de elopmen , de elopmen o anspo -sys ems, a el beha iou
and affic olumes, since hey a e influenced by each o he and o he ac o s o diffe en kinds. The need o longi udinal s udies o
cap u e he long- e m and indi ec mechanisms, o en going decades back in ime, enhances his p oblem. These challenges educe
he p ecision and s eng h o ou findings. We s ill find ha he s udy p o ides no el, in e es ing and mo e nuanced insigh s in o
mechanisms ha ha e no been well co e ed in p e ious esea ch, which is also ele an o esea che s and p ac i ione s s i ing o
acili a e sus ainable u ban mobili y.
4. Resul s
4.1. The Ålesund case
4.1.1. Case desc ip ion
The Ålesund case in ol es a oad capaci y expansion a he ou e pa s o he ci y. A wo-lane unnel was buil in 2002, in pa allel
o he exis ing wo-lane oad (E39) linking he ci y o i s hin e land, he eby inc easing he capaci y om wo o ou lanes. In
addi ion o he oad unnel ha is ou case, he oad sys em in he nea by ‘Moa a ea’was upg aded and imp o ed, wi h a sho unnel,
se e al oundabou s and pedes ian c ossings. The p ojec s we e expec ed o educe se e e ush hou conges ions expec ed o wo sen
due o popula ion and affic g ow h; educing affic on he exis ing oad; and acili a ing housing and e ail de elopmen (Ålesund
Municipali y, 1993, 2001). I was hough ha he planned new oad sys em would ha e subs an ial capaci y ese es o handling
u u e affic g ow h. 30% affic g ow h was used in he calcula ions, bu he documen s a ailable do no men ion which yea his
Fig. 2. Ålesund case. O e iew, zones and loca ion o he new unnel.
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
93
e e s o.
When analysing his case, we compa ed h ee main geog aphical zones, as illus a ed in Fig. 2. The ou e u ban a ea is loca ed
ups eam om he main bo leneck in he oad sys em in he ‘be o e’si ua ion, and i was expec ed o benefi he mos om he oad
capaci y expansion. The ex ended Moa a ea was expec ed o benefi om imp o emen s in he anspo sys em in he Moa a ea,
while, he ex ended ci y cen e a ea was no expec ed o benefi di ec ly om hese p ojec s.
4.1.2. Land-use de elopmen , planning and policy
When analysing land-use de elopmen in Ålesund om 2002 o 2016, we find a clea sp awling endency, wi h highe pe cen-
ages o inhabi an s li ing in a eas loca ed a he om he main ci y cen e in he ‘a e ’ han in he ‘be o e’si ua ion. The ela i e
popula ion g ow h is weakes in he ex ended ci y cen e a ea and s onges in he ou e u ban a ea (see Table 1). 67% o he new
housing uni s buil in he pe iod 2007–2017 we e de ached houses and owhouses, while 33% we e fla s in apa men buildings (SN,
2018a).
We find simila endencies when analysing he loca ion o wo kplaces. The ex ended ci y cen e a ea expe ienced a less g ow h
han he o he a eas did in he pe iod o 2002–2016 (see Table 2). The g ow h was s onges in he ex ended Moa a ea. The ou e
u ban a ea also expe ienced a s ong g ow h in numbe o jobs. As a esul , he pe cen age o wo kplaces loca ed in he ex ended ci y
cen e a ea dec eased om 48% in 2002 o 41% in 2016. Fu he , e ail s udies e ealed a s ong inc ease in he Moa a ea’s sha e o
u no e , and a clea dec ease in he ci y cen e, be ween 2004 and 2012 (Dalen and Lynum, 2014). Moa has g own o become he
hi d la ges shopping-des ina ion in No way (NPRA, 2013a).
The s a is ics abo e desc ibe a si ua ion wi h a s ong g ow h in popula ion and wo kplaces a he ou ski s o he u ban a ea in
he pe iod a e comple ion o he oad capaci y expansion, and mos housing is buil wi h a he low densi ies (de ached houses and
owhouses), which we unde s and as a sp awling endency. The e a e clea indica ions o causal ela ions be ween he oad capaci y
expansion and he land-use de elopmen . Facili a ing g ow h in he ex ended Moa a ea and he ou e u ban a ea was an a gumen o
cons uc ing he new unnel, and inc eased p essu e o cons uc ing new housing in hese a eas was expec ed (Ålesund Municipali y,
2001). This unde s anding is confi med by he in e iewees (planning au ho i ies and de elope ), desc ibing a ‘be o e’si ua ion
whe e oad au ho i ies would make o mal complain s i de elope s o municipal au ho i ies sugges ed de elopmen s ha would
wo sen conges ion, while his was no longe an issue a e he capaci y expansion. The in e iewees s a ed ha he changed affic
si ua ion, oge he wi h he shi s in loca ion pa e ns, also seems o ha e igge ed a end o eloca ing offices om he ci y cen e o
an a ea adjacen o Moa, mainly o buildings p e iously used o o he ac i i ies.
The in e iews wi h planning au ho i ies and he de elope confi m ha he e has been a s ong, s eady p essu e o cons uc ing
new housing and wo kplaces in he ex ended Moa a ea and he ou e u ban a ea in he pe iod a e he oad capaci y expansion.
Planning au ho i ies ha e no es ic ed his de elopmen o s ee ed i in di ec ions con ibu ing o keep anspo demand and ca
dependency low. In he in e iews, he de elope s claim ha lack o sui able building si es and high p ope y p ices in cen al u ban
a eas le hem no al e na i es o la ge de elopmen s han he ou e u ban a eas, and poli icians wan ed o acili a e popula ion
g ow h. Some o he land-use changes we e no planned o expec ed, as in he eloca ion o offices om he ci y cen e. The s ong
g ow h in wo k-places in he ou e u ban a ea was no men ioned in he municipal plans, and he figu es sugges ed o expec ed
popula ion g ow h we e mo e modes han shown by ou da a.
Table 1
Popula ion wi hin geog aphic zones.
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2017b).
A ea Popula ion 2002 Popula ion 2009 Popula ion 2016 Changes
2002–2009
Changes
2009–2016
Changes
2002–2016
Change (%)
2002–2016
Ex ended ci y
cen e a ea
15 268 15 844 17 218 576 1374 1950 12.8
Ex ended Moa a ea 11 027 11 759 12 892 732 1133 1865 16.9
Ou e u ban a ea 18 329 20 446 22 862 2117 2416 4533 24.7
Ålesund a ea o al 44 624 48 049 52 972 3425 4923 8348 18.7
No way o al 15.2
Table 2
Numbe o wo kplaces wi hin geog aphic zones.
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2017a).
A ea Employees 2002 Employees 2009 Employees 2016 Change
2002–2009
Change
2009–2016
Change
2002–2016
Change (%)
2002–2016
Ex ended ci y
cen e a ea
11 218 11 667 11 795 450 128 578 5.1
Ex ended Moa a ea 5949 7393 8722 1444 1329 2773 46.6
Ou e u ban a ea 5980 7833 8144 1854 311 2164 36.2
Ålesund a ea, o al 23 146 26 893 28 662 3748 1768 5516 23.8
No way 14.2
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4.1.3. Changes in a el beha iou
Acco ding o heo y, he sp awling land-use de elopmen desc ibed abo e is expec ed o esul in highe ca -d i e sha es and
longe a els. Da a om he Na ional T a el Su ey show ha he sha e o ips comple ed as ca d i e s in he Ålesund a ea
inc eased om 2001 o 2013/14, wi h a s onge inc ease o all ips han o wo k ips (see Table 3). Compa ed wi h figu es o
No way, Ålesund has had a s onge g ow h in sha es o ips done as ca d i e s. The e a e su p isingly la ge a ia ions om yea o
yea , making us suspec unce ain ies in he esul s, especially o 2009.
When analysing commu ing s a is ics om SN, we find a 19% (1.7 km) inc ease in he a e age commu ing dis ance om 2001 o
2017 o people li ing in he Ålesund a ea (see Table 4). This is a s ong inc ease when compa ed o he a e age o all commu es in
No way (0.5 km, 3.6% inc ease). The inc ease in commu ing dis ance was s onges on commu es done by hose li ing in he ex-
ended ci y cen e and weakes among hose li ing in he ou e u ban a ea. One explana ion o his could be he s ong g ow h in he
numbe o wo kplaces in he ex ended Moa a ea and he ou e u ban a ea, i mo e people li ing in he ex ended ci y cen e now wo k
a wo kplaces in hose a eas.
Analyses o commu ing dis ances o wo kplaces loca ed in he Ålesund a ea show a a smalle inc ease in a e age commu ing
dis ance in he pe iod 2001–2015 (0.1 km, 0.5% inc ease; see Table 5). This is lowe han ha in No way in he same pe iod. The
a e age commu ing dis ance o jobs loca ed in he ex ended ci y cen e a ea was educed in he pe iod, while he e was a s ong
g ow h in commu ing dis ance o jobs loca ed in he ou e u ban a ea. This could indica e ha wo kplaces a ac ing employees om
he la ge ci y egion ha e eloca ed away om he ci y cen e o o he a eas. The diffe ence in changes in commu ing dis ances when
ocussing on he loca ion o jobs and on whe e inhabi an s li e p obably indica es ha mo e people li ing in he Ålesund a ea
commu e o wo kplaces loca ed ou side ou s udy a ea han did be o e.
4.1.4. T affic olumes and conges ion le els
Knowing he de elopmen as desc ibed abo e, i comes as no su p ise ha he e has been a s eady affic g ow h in he a ea.
Focussing on he oad capaci y expansion ha is ou case, affic da a om he NPRA (2016b, 2017) show a s eady inc ease in o al
affic olumes (on he new and he exis ing oad) om abou annual a e age daily affic (AADT) 18 400 ehicles pe day in 1998
(exis ing oad only) o abou 28 100 in 2016 (53% in o al o bo h oads; see Fig. 3). In compa ison, oad passenge anspo ( hkm)
in No way inc eased by 30% om 1998 o 2016 (SN, 2018b). T affic on he exis ing oad was educed om abou AADT 18 400
ehicles pe day in 1998 o abou 6700 in 2016 (64%), meaning ha he local oad has been elie ed om h ough affic, as planned.
The 53% affic g ow h in he co ido is conside ably s onge han he 30% sugges ed in planning documen s om Ålesund
Municipali y (1993, 2001). The planning documen s did no speci y which yea hey an icipa ed ha affic would ha e g own o
30% (abou AADT 24 000). Fig. 3 shows ha affic had g own o his le el a ound 2008, only six yea s a e he new unnel was
opened, which we unde s and as soone han expec ed.
We do no ha e da a o conges ion le els be o e he new oad was buil , bu he in e iewees and documen s desc ibe a si ua ion
wi h wha was pe cei ed as se e e conges ion p oblems (Ålesund Municipali y, 1993). The conges ion could las o mo e han an
hou , especially when d i ing om he a eas ups eam o he unnel owa d he ci y cen e in he mo ning ush. The in e iewees
s a ed ha , in he fi s pe iod a e he oad capaci y expansion, conges ion and delays we e subs an ially educed, almos down o
ze o, be o e he conges ion slowly e u ned. Measu es o conges ion le els in 2012 show some delays in he sec ion including he new
unnel in he mo ning ush hou s going owa d he ci y cen e (a e age speed, 29–37 km/h compa ed wi h he 60–70 km/h speed
Table 3
Ca -d i e sha es (%) on all ips and wo k ips made by people li ing in he Ålesund a ea ( he municipali ies o Ålesund and Sula) and in No way.
N o he Ålesund su ey, all ips: 2001;719, 2005; 704, 2009; 1061, 2013/14; 2225.
Sou ce: Na ional T a el Su ey (Hjo hol e al., 2014).
Ca -d i e sha es 2001 2005 2009 2013/14
All ips
Ålesund-a ea 54.0% 57.9% 48.2% 60.9%
No way 52.5% 54.2% 51.5% 54.4%
Wo k ips
Ålesund a ea 68.8% 63.2% 58.6% 69.2%
No way 62.9% 65.4% 61.3% 61.2%
Table 4
A e age commu ing dis ances (km) o inhabi an s li ing in diffe en geog aphic zones in he Ålesund a ea (one way).
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2016).
A ea 2001 2008 2015 Changes 2001–2008 Changes 2008–2015 Changes 2001–2015 Change (%) 2001–2015
Ex ended ci y cen e a ea 8.1 10.2 11.0 2.1 0.8 2.9 35.1
Ex ended Moa a ea 7.9 8.7 9.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 16.5
Ou e u ban a ea 11.0 11.3 12.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 9.6
Ålesund a ea o al 9.3 10.3 11.0 1.0 0.7 1.7 19.0
No way 14.6 15.5 15.2 0.9 –0.3 0.5 3.6
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
95
limi ) and in he Moa a ea (Le in, 2012 o he NPRA). The mos se e e delays a e ound close o he ci y cen e and in he ci y cen e
i sel . The esponden s we e mixed in e ms o whe he his de elopmen was an icipa ed, bu hey seemed o ag ee ha he con-
ges ion e u ned as e han expec ed.
4.1.5. Cu en si ua ion and plans
The cu en affic si ua ion is unde s ood as conges ed, and planning is unde way o expand he oad capaci y wi h addi ionally
wo lanes (NPRA, 2013a). Goals lis ed in he planning documen include, among o he hings, educing he sha e o ips done as ca
d i e s and keeping conges ion le els down. The documen s a es ha a conges ion- ee u u e anspo sys em canno be expec ed.
The indi ec land-use effec s discussed in his a icle a e no men ioned in he p elimina y impac assessmen (NPRA, 2013a). In hei
2017 municipal plan, he planning au ho i ies in Ålesund ocus on s ee ing u u e land-use de elopmen in di ec ions in ended o
s op he affic g ow h, shi mo e o he anspo o o he modes han he p i a e ca and inc ease public anspo compe i i eness
(Ålesund Municipali y, 2017). The in e iewees epo ed ha i is ha d o find ways o sol ing his, due o he sp awled land-use
s uc u e.
4.2. The Oslo case
4.2.1. Case desc ip ion
The case in Oslo is an expansion o he main oad connec ing Oslo wi h i s hin e land in sou h-eas and sou h-eas e n pa s o
No way, as well as Sweden and Eu ope (E6). The oad be ween Sweden and No way was expanded and imp o ed o e a longe ime.
The las pa s, c ossing he bo de s o Oslo municipali y, we e be ween Kleme s ud and Assu je n (7 km; cons uc ion pe iod,
2002–2004) and be ween Assu je n and Vin e b o (5.5 km; cons uc ion pe iod, 2006–2009), see Fig. 4. The oad was expanded
om wo o ou /fi e lanes and upg aded wi h wo-le el in e changes. The main a gumen s o expanding he oad capaci y can be
summa ised as: To educe conges ion le els, which we e p edic ed o wo sen due o s eadily inc easing affic olumes; o imp o e
affic sa e y; elie e a pa allel oad om h ough affic; and imp o e he oad connec ion o Sweden (NPRA, 1998).
The impac assessmen calcula ed wi h a 30% affic g ow h om 2003 o 2025 and assumed specifically ha he capaci y
expansion would no cause induced affic o significance (NPRA, 1998:102). An analysis by NPRA (2009) conce ning u he de-
elopmen o he anspo sys em a e he oad capaci y expansions we e comple ed, sugges ed an 8% g ow h in inhabi an s and a
nega i e g ow h in numbe o wo k places in he Follo a ea om 2003 o 2015. The impac assessmen ound ha he oad capaci y
expansion would educe conges ion, and p edic ed significan a el ime sa ings, e en hough i wa ned ha he e would p obably
Table 5
A e age commu ing dis ances (km) o employees o jobs loca ed in diffe en geog aphic zones (one way).
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2016).
A ea 2001 2008 2015 Changes 2001–2008 Changes 2008–2015 Changes 2001–2015 Change (%) 2001–2015
Ex ended ci y cen e a ea 15.0 14.0 14.2 −1.1 0.2 −0.9 −5.7
Ex ended Moa a ea 12.9 12.9 13.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 3.6
Ou e u ban a ea 10.2 11.4 12.1 1.3 0.6 1.9 18.6
Ålesund a ea o al 13.3 12.9 13.3 −0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5
No way 14.6 15.5 15.2 0.9 −0.3 0.5 3.6
Fig. 3. Annual a e age daily affic (AADT) in he exis ing oad, he new oad, and in o al o bo h oads. All a ailable da a a e p esen ed in he
figu e. The new unnel was opened in 2002.
Sou ce: No wegian Public Roads Adminis a ion (2016b, 2017).
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
96
s ill be some delays in he mo ning ush hou s (NPRA, 1998).
When analysing land-use de elopmen and changes in a el beha iou , we ocus on de elopmen in he Follo a ea (abou
125 000 inhabi an s), since his a ea is loca ed ups eam o he oad capaci y expansion and is expec ed o ha e benefi ed he mos
om inc eased accessibili y due o he oad capaci y expansion (see Fig. 4). We s udy he de elopmen in ou municipali ies in Follo,
loca ed a diffe en dis ances om Oslo ci y cen e. Oppegå d is he neighbou municipali y, and ha closes o Oslo (cen e loca ed
15 km om Oslo’s ci y cen e), ollowed by Ski (30 km om Oslo), Ås (40 km om Oslo) and Ves by (43 km om Oslo). We also
compa e de elopmen in he Follo a ea wi h de elopmen in Ake shus Coun y, o which Follo belongs, and in No way.
4.2.2. Land-use de elopmen , planning and policies
When analysing land-use de elopmen in he Follo a ea in he pe iod 2002–2016, we find a s ong (21.9%) popula ion g ow h
(see Table 6). The g ow h is weake han in Ake shus (24.6%) and s onge han in No way (15.2%). The ela i e popula ion g ow h
was s onges in he municipali ies loca ed u hes om Oslo (Ås and Ves by). We unde s and his as a sp awling endency, since a
highe pe cen age o inhabi an s in he Follo a ea li es in a eas u he om he main ci y cen e in he ‘a e ’ han did in he ‘be o e’
si ua ion.
The numbe o new housing uni s is highes in he wo mos pe iphe al municipali ies, and he sha es o new housing buil as fla s
in apa men buildings dec eases wi h he dis ance om Oslo (see Table 7).
The e has also been a s ong g ow h in he numbe o wo kplaces (24.8%) in Follo in he pe iod 2002–2016, which is highe han
ha in Ake shus (18.5%) and h oughou No way (14.2%; see Table 8). Ves by, loca ed u hes om Oslo, had he s onges g ow h,
and almos a doubling o numbe o jobs.
In sum, hese figu es d aw a pic u e o s ong g ow h in popula ion and jobs in he Follo a ea a e he oad capaci y expansions,
Fig. 4. Oslo case. The le image shows he loca ion o he Follo a ea in Ake shus, while he igh image shows municipali ies in he Follo a ea and
he loca ion o he oad capaci y expansions.
Table 6
Popula ion wi hin geog aphic zones.
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2017b). The Follo a ea includes all municipali ies in Follo.
A ea 2002 2009 2016 Changes 2002–2009 Changes 2009–2016 Changes 2002–2016 Changes (%) 2002–2016
Oppegå d 23 152 24 612 26 792 1460 2180 3640 15.7
Ski 25 763 27 699 30 261 1936 2562 4498 17.5
Ås 14 037 15 863 18 992 1826 3129 4955 35.3
Ves by 12 515 14 095 16 732 1580 2637 4217 33.7
Follo a ea 113 171 123 986 137 965 10 815 13 979 24 794 21.9
Ake shus 477 325 527 625 594 533 50 300 66 908 117 208 24.6
Oslo 512 589 575 475 658 390 62 886 82 915 145 801 28.4
No way 4 524 066 4 799 248 5 213 913 275 182 414 665 689 847 15.2
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97
wi h a s onge g ow h in he mos pe iphe al pa s o he egion, and housing de elopmen in he ou e pa s aking place mainly as
low-densi y de elopmen (de ached houses and owhouses).
The causal ela ions be ween he oad capaci y expansions and he land-use de elopmen a e also e iden in his case. The main
planning documen s o esee g ow h in he numbe o inhabi an s (bu no jobs) in he Follo a ea and inc eased conges ion i he oad
is no expanded; howe e , hey do no men ion he affic si ua ion as es ic ing his g ow h (Oslo Municipali y and Ake shus
Coun y, 1997; NPRA, 1998, 2009). The planning documen s e eal a s ong awa eness o he po en ial o induced affic ollowing
om he capaci y expansion, and hey a e clea in hei ecommenda ions o s ee ing land-use de elopmen o a eas well se ed by
public anspo , especially by ailway, o delimi affic-inducing effec s o he oad capaci y expansion. S ill, he impac assessmen
is specific in s a ing ha land-use de elopmen will no be affec ed by he capaci y expansions (NPRA, 1998:102). The municipal
mas e plans s a e a willingness o s ee mo e o he de elopmen owa d a eas well se ed by public anspo , bu hey also cla i y
ha hey will keep la ge, ca -based de elopmen a eas in hei plans (Oppegå d Municipali y, 1994; Ås Municipali y, 1995; Ski
Municipali y, 1995).
In e iewees a planning au ho i ies in Oppegå d and Ski, loca ed closes o Oslo, claim ha he oad capaci y expansion has no
affec ed land-use planning and de elopmen in hei municipali ies much. They ha e expe ienced a high p essu e on housing de-
elopmen o a long ime, including be o e he oad capaci y expansion. They ha e been es ic i e wi h espec o how much
housing hey ha e allowed buil because physical and social in as uc u e needs o be p o ided acco dingly, among o he easons.
De elopmen s has mainly been allowed in and close o al eady buil -up a eas and cen es wi h good ail se ices, o en as densifi-
ca ion and ans o ma ion, and mo e han be o e as fla s in apa men buildings. An example showing ha he oad capaci y ex-
pansion has affec ed land-use de elopmen is ha Ski defined a la ge a ea o wo kplace de elopmen close o he expanded E6,
which would no ha e been es ablished i he oad had no been expanded.
The es ic i e land-use policy is ollowed e en mo e s ic ly oday (Oppegå d Municipali y, 2011, 2016; Ski Municipali y, 2011),
in acco dance wi h he egional land-use and anspo plan (Ake shus Coun y and Oslo Municipali y, 2015) and de elope s’de-
mands. Rail se ices o Oppegå d and Ski will subs an ially imp o e in a ew yea s, as a new line opens, and de elope s buy land and
p ope ies close o main ailway s a ions since i is belie ed ha hese a eas will become mo e a ac i e and aluable. The muni-
cipali ies hope he imp o ed ail accessibili y will also a ac mo e office- wo kplaces o hei cen es.
Planning au ho i y in e iewees in Ås and Ves by, loca ed u he ou in he u ban s uc u e, epo ed a s ong ela ionship
be ween he oad capaci y expansion and land-use de elopmen and policies in hei municipali ies. A p e ious summe -co age a ea
loca ed a om he cen e and he ailway s a ion in Ås has g own o become he second mos populous housing-a ea in he
municipali y. Acco ding o one in e iewee, he oad capaci y expansion was a necessa y condi ion and s ong con ibu ing cause o
his. The in e iewee in Ves by explained ha municipal poli icians saw he imp o ed oad accessibili y as an oppo uni y o g ow h
and de elopmen , and he municipali y bough la ge ac s o land in a eas close o he main oads. These a eas we e cla ified o
de elopmen , awai ing de elope s and businesses. This was a success, as eflec ed in he s ong g ow h in he numbe o wo kplaces
in he municipali y, mainly ela ed o logis ics and egional e ail.
In Ås and Ves by alike, he s ong popula ion g ow h is explained by he high housing and p ope y p ices in Oslo, causing
especially young amilies o look o o he op ions, as well as he municipali ies’land-use policies. They ha e acili a ed a ange o
diffe en op ions wi h espec o housing de elopmen in hei municipal plans, o en based on p oposals om landowne s and
Table 7
Numbe o dwellings buil in ou Follo municipali ies in he pe iod 2007–2017, and pe cen ages buil as low-densi y de elopmen (de ached
houses, ow-houses, e c.) and high-densi y de elopmen (apa men buildings). Dwellings designa ed o he elde ly, s uden s and so on a e ex-
cluded. Da a om S a is ics No way (2018a). Da a only go back o 2007.
Municipali y Numbe o new dwellings 2007–2017 Sha e as de ached houses and owhouses (%) Sha e in apa men buildings (%)
Oppegå d 1350 35.0 65.0
Ski 1258 44.9 55.1
Ås 1702 58.5 41.5
Ves by 1746 63.1 36.9
Table 8
Numbe o employees a wo kplaces loca ed wi hin geog aphic zones.
Sou ce: S a is ics No way (2017a).
A ea 2002 2009 2016 Changes 2002–2009 Changes 2009–2016 Changes 2002–2016 Change (%) 2002–2016
Oppegå d 9018 9135 8729 117 –406 –289 –3.2
Ski 10 881 13 610 14 235 2730 624 3354 30.8
Ås 6714 7374 8488 660 1115 1774 26.4
Ves by 3619 5056 6743 1437 1687 3124 86.3
Follo a ea 39 475 45 515 49 278 6040 3763 9803 24.8
Ake shus 210 240 246 331 249 116 36 091 2785 38 876 18.5
Oslo 421 521 436 359 454 006 14 839 17 646 32 485 7.7
No way 2 256 948 2 514 597 2 576 578 257 649 61 981 319 629 14.2
A. Tennøy e al. T anspo a ion Resea ch Pa D 69 (2019) 90–106
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