Changes in the Timing of First Birth in East Germany after Re-unification

Kreyenfeld, Michaela Article Changes in the Timing of First Birth in East Germany after Re-unification Schmollers Jahrbuch – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsund Sozialwissenschaften. Journal of Applied Social Science Studies Provided in Cooperation with: Duncker & Humblot, Berlin Suggested Citation: Kreyenfeld, Michaela (2000) : Changes in the Timing of First Birth in East Germany after Re-unification, Schmollers Jahrbuch – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsund Sozialwissenschaften. Journal of Applied Social Science Studies, ISSN 1865-5742, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Vol. 120, Iss. 2, pp. 169-186, https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/291954 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000), 169-186 Duncker & Humblot, Berlin Changes in the Timing of First Birth in East Germany after Re-unification By Michaela Kreyenfeld* Abstract When German re-unification was accompanied by a rapid decline in aggregate fertility rates, researchers particularly assigned high unemployment rates a dominant role in these changes in fertility behavior. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate changes in the timing of first births in East Germany after re-unification. Using data from the SOEP, we show that even after re-unification East Germans are younger at first birth than their West German counterparts. Second, we investigate the relationship between male and female unemployment and first birth risks. A major result is that female unemployment encourages the transition into parenthood in East Germany Zusammenfassung Die Vereinigung der beiden deutschen Staaten im Jahr 1990 wurde von einem bislang beispiellosen Geburtenrückgang in Ostdeutschland begleitet. Als Erklärung für diese drastischen Veränderungen im generativen Verhalten wurde oft auf die ostdeutsche Arbeitsmarktlage verwiesen. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, zunächst Veränderungen im Alter der Familiengründung in Ostdeutschland zu beschreiben. Auf Basis von Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) wird gezeigt, dass auch nach der Wende ostdeutsche Frauen bei der Geburt des ersten Kindes jünger sind als westdeutsche Frauen. Darüber hinaus wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Arbeitslosigkeit und Familiengründung in Ostdeutschland analysiert. Wesentliches Ergebnis der Analyse ist, dass die Erwerbslosigkeit von Frauen einen positiven Einfluss auf den Übergang zum ersten Kind hat. JEL-Classification: J13, J 22 * The author would like to thank Francesco Billari, Karl Brehmer, Tomas Frejka, Jan Hoem, Johannes Huinink, Hans-Peter Kohler and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. The view expressed in this paper is my own. It does not necessarily reflect the view of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 170 Michaela Kreyenfeld 1. Introduction The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9th, 1989 is usually equated with the breakdown of the GDR regime. Monetary union with West Germany followed in July and German re-unification in October 1990. As can be seen from Figure 1, aggregate fertility rates in East Germany declined almost immediately after German re-unification. While there were still 180,000 births in 1990, there were only 110,000 a year later. This is a drop by about 40 percent over the period of a single year. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is a more accurate account of the population at risk of childbirth, displays a similar pattern. The TFR in East Germany dropped from 1.5 in 1990 to 1.0 in 1991, and reached its lowest level of 0.8 in the years 1992 to 1995. Panel 1: Live Births in East Germany (in 1,000) Panel 2: TFR in East and West Germany Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (1999). Figure 1: Birth Rates in East and West Germany The decline in birth rates has caused an extensive discussion about the determinants of these rapid and drastic changes. The hypothesis that is perhaps discussed most is the idea of a "crisis phenomenon."1 Eberstadt (1994: 150) views the East German fertility decline as a "demographic shock". He argues that fertility rates in East Germany "register a profound and broadly felt lack of confidence in the economic future." In a similar fashion, Fleischhacker (1994: 43) describes fertility decline after re-unification as the result 1 There are certainly other aspects, which are also discussed in this context. The most often cited reasons for an early first birth in former East Germany are presumably East German housing policies, the East German 'marriage loan', the public provision with day care, generous leaves for mothers with sick children etc. (for a detailed overview, see Cromm 1998). Schaich (1998) relates low East German birth rates to an increase in consumption opportunities after unification. Other authors observe a loss of a "family orientated life style" and an emergence of a "post modern" family structure (see e.g., Beck-Gernsheim 1997). Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 Changes in the Timing of First Birth 171 of a severe economic crisis comparable to the post-war periods. Witte and Wagner (1995: 395) do not speak of a shock experience, but they still argue that "there is no reason to expect the total fertility rate in the East to rebound to the level found in the West." Unfavorable labor market constraints, i.e. high unemployment rates, are expected to keep East Germany's fertility rate below West German levels. Timing or Quantum? One of the most striking features of the discussion about the "East German fertility crisis" is that it concentrates largely on finding an explanation for a "fertility decline", generally using the annual TFR as an indicator.2 It is well known among demographers that the (commonly used) TFR is highly subject to misinterpretation (Bongaarts /Feeney 1998). It not only fails to differentiate between births of different orders but, most importantly, it obscures the difference between "tempo" and "quantum effects" of fertility. A decline in the TFR might indeed be related to a decline in life-time fertility, but it might just as well be related to a postponement of motherhood. Compared to other European countries, the mean age at childbirth was relatively low in East Germany. In 1989, the mean age at childbirth was 24.7 (for first births: age 22.7, for second births: 26.3) (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 1999). In West Germany, the age at childbirth is rather high in a cross-national comparison. In 1989, the mean age at childbirth in West Germany was 28.3 for all parities (Statistisches Bundesamt 1999). The considerable difference in age at childbirth between East and West Germans is rather crucial for understanding an "East German fertility decline". Even if East Germans did temporarily stop having a child during the upheavals of German re-unification, East German women were still young enough to postpone childbearing to a later phase in their lives without reaching the social and biological limits of fertility (or West German levels). One of the most interesting questions might therefore be whether the decline in the TFR indeed indicates "quantum effects" or if it is related instead to a postponement of childbirth in the individual life course. A simple 2 It should be noted that there are several authors who argue that changes in the timing of first birth might be an important factor in the drop in the TFR after re-unification (e.g. Conrad/Lechner/Werner 1996: 339, Dorbritz 1997: 239, Schultz/ Wagner/Witte 1993: 13). However, to our knowledge, there is little empirical research on changes in the timing of first birth after re-unification. An exception is e.g. the study by Sackmann (1999). His analysis is however restricted to a sample of East Germans from Rostock and Leipzig who have a vocational training certificate or a college degree. Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 172 Michaela Kreyenfeld method to detect changes in the timing of parenthood is the use of cohort fertility rates. However, German vital statistics only provide births by orders in the current marital union. With almost half of all births being outof wedlock in East Germany, vital statistics are of limited value when analyzing changes in the timing of childbirth in East Germany after re-unification (Statistisches Bundesamt 1999). The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we use survey data to describe the timing of first births for different East German birth cohorts before and after re-unification. Second, we investigate whether the negative correlation between high unemployment and low fertility rates also holds true on the micro level. In other words: Does unemployment induce a postponement of first birth in East Germany? This paper is structured in the following manner. In the first part, we discuss some general features of the East German labor market before and after re-unification. In the second part, we discuss the general framework that relates female and male unemployment and child timing decisions. The third part comprises the empirical analysis. This part consists of two sections. In the first section, we simply describe the timing of first birth of different East German birth cohorts before and after German re-unification (using simple Kaplan-Meier survival curves). The second section comprises the multivariate analysis, where we analyze the impact of male and female unemployment on first birth risks in East German after German re-unification (using an event history model). 2. The East German Labor Market It is often believed that there is no real dichotomy between a "free market system" on the one hand and a centrally planned economy on the other (Szydlik 1994: 200). Government intervention is prevalent in any society. Conversely, there is also room for free choice in a centrally planned economy. Nevertheless, it is indisputable that in a centrally planned economy like the former East Germany government intervention was rather encompassing. The production of goods and services was largely governed by 'plan'. Firms were mostly publicly owned, wages and prices were centrally set. Labor market mobility was severely restricted, i.e. upward mobility was very much constrained by predetermined career paths, internal labor market restricted job mobility and the statutory right to work insured against unemployment (Solga / Konietzka 1999, Griinert/Karl 1997, Sackmann / Wingens 1996). With German re-unification, the set-up of the East German labor market drastically changed. In the subsequent years, East Germans witnessed a thorough "restructuring" of the labor market, i.e. closures of firms and with Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 Changes in the Timing of First Birth 173 it dismissals of workers on a large scale. This means that East Germans not only lost the predictability of their career paths that they were used to in the former East Germany. They were also at greater risk of experiencing unemployment, change of jobs or unstable employment conditions than their West German counterparts. Empirical analysis reveals that almost half of all East Germans males experienced some time of unemployment or some time of job creation programs in the immediate period after re-unification (Bielinski /Brinkmann / Kohler 1995). Panel 1 in Figure 2 displays male unemployment rates for the period 1991 to 1999 in East and West Germany. In 1991, unemployment rates were on a still moderate level in East Germany. However, with the cut back of job creation programs, unemployment rates increased well above West German levels in the subsequent years. Panel 1: Male Unemployment Rates Panel 2: Female Unemployment Rates Source: Bundesanstalt für Arbeit (2000). Figure 2: Unemployment Rates 1991-1999 Concerning female employment, there is consistent empirical evidence that the restructuring of the East German labor market has particularly "disrupted" the working careers of women. East German women were at a higher risk of unemployment and they had lower chances of returning to the labor market after being unemployed than their male counterparts (e.g., Diewald/Mayer/Solga 1999, Engelbrech /Reinberg 1997, Hoist/Schupp 1995). Similar to their male counterparts, women without formal qualifications were the ones most likely to become unemployed. In 1995, about half of all East German women without any formal qualifications were unemployed, while on the other hand there was only little unemployment (about 5 percent) among East German women with a college degree. Engelbrech and Reinberg (1997: 11) even speak of a polarization among East German women, with highly qualified employed women on the one hand, and nonworking women without sufficient formal qualifications on the other. Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 174 Michaela Kreyenfeld 3. Theoretical Considerations From the perspective of neoclassical theory, there are at least two factors connecting fertility and employment. First, children are expected to cost a substantial amount of money, which is generally acquired through participating in the labor market (Turchi 1975). Second, rearing children is a time-intensive activity, which therefore competes with time one could otherwise spend in gainful employment (Becker 1993, Hirschman 1994). If one assumes the traditional division of labor in the household (i.e., the man is responsible for providing for the family and the woman for childrearing) this yields two straightforward hypotheses on the relationship between unemployment and fertility. On the one hand, male unemployment should have a postponing effect on childbirth. In times of unemployment the male "bread-winner" is hardly able to support a family and the couple should therefore postpone parenthood until the husband has returned to gainful employment. Female unemployment, on the other hand, should encourage couples to have children. Female unemployment reduces the time costs of having children, which makes it reasonable for a woman to give birth when she experiences unemployment (Butz/Ward 1979, Zimmerman/DeNew 1990). Career Planning and Fertility One might argue that the standard neoclassic framework is rather myopic in that it does take into consideration the fact that the decision to have a child involves a longer time perspective. During times of unemployment, the opportunity costs of having children are low. However, childbirth usually requires a longer time of absence from the labor market than a woman would have otherwise spent unemployed. Most importantly, fertility decisions and childbirth are separated by nine months. Furthermore, a mother is not able to return to the labor market immediately after giving birth to a child. In Germany, mothers are prohibited from working during the first eight weeks after childbirth. In addition, when the child is still very young parents might be less willing to put their children in day care. The longer a woman is not involved in the labor market after childbirth, however, the greater her chances of experiencing a devaluation of her human capital and the lower her chances of a smooth return to the labor market. In other words, if a woman decides to have a child while being unemployed, she will most likely be absent from the labor market substantially longer than the period of unemployment would normally have lasted. It is most likely that she will experience a devaluation of her human capital, which will reduce her chances of resuming employment. Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 Changes in the Timing of First Birth 175 If, on the other hand, a woman decides to have a child while she is in regular employment, she has a far better chance of returning to the labor market after childbirth. In Germany, a woman who is employed before the birth of her child is entitled to take advantage of maternity leave regulations, which entail the guaranteed right to return to her job up to three years after the birth of a child. Given this institutional setting, one would expect women to first search for a stable employment situation, which then facilitates a smooth return to their previous employment after childbirth. From this perspective, female unemployment should have a postponing effect on a first birth (see e.g., Adler 1997). Labor Market Discouragement and Fertility The line of reasoning sketched above assumes that unemployment has a postponing effect on childbirth due to a woman's career-planning motives. It implicitly assumes that women have a desire to bring their employment and fertility "careers" into synch with each other. Friedman, Hechter and Kanazawa (1994: 382 ff.) challenge this line of reasoning with a set of rather provocative hypotheses. They basically argue that, in contemporary societies, women face a choice between an employment career and a "career" as mother and housewife. Although women might wish to pursue an employment career, bleak employment prospects might discourage them from doing so. Women then respond to their unfavorable employment prospects by choosing the secure and predictable career of a mother and housewife instead. Similar to the standard neoclassic framework, female unemployment has an accelerating impact on childbirth in this framework. However, the choice to have a child is not a short-term decision influenced solely by the opportunity costs of child-rearing. Rather, it is a long-term decision which encompasses the future employment situation. Unemployment and Fertility in East Germany To summarize our line of thought: the neoclassic framework postulates a negative correlation between male unemployment and fertility and a positive one for female unemployment and fertility. In the case of female unemployment, we have characterized the standard neoclassic framework as rather myopic, because it does not take into account the long-term costs of opting for parenthood when a woman experiences unemployment. We have argued that one would more likely expect a woman to first search for a stable employment situation before she opts for parenthood. This assures her the right to return smoothly to her job after childbirth, thus guaranteeSchmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 176 Michaela Kreyenfeld ing a continuous employment career. This argument takes for granted, however, that East German women seek an employment career. In principle, this fits the East German situation very well. East German women are often described as being more attached to an employment career than their West German counterparts (Trappe 1995). When they become unemployed, they are more active in seeking new employment. If they are working part-time, they express a greater desire to work full-time (e.g. Hoist/Schupp 1996). This high level of "labor market attachment" on the part of most East German women is severely constrained, however, by rather discouraging labor market constraints, e.g., high female unemployment rates, low chances of entering the labor market once unemployed, high risks of downward status mobility after unemployment. In line with Friedman, Hechter and Kanazawa (1994), one might interpret a negative impact of female unemployment on fertility as a "labor market discouragement" of unemployed East German women. 4. Empirical Analysis The empirical analysis consists of two parts. First, we describe the timing of first birth in East Germany before and after re-unification, using simple Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Second, we analyze the impact of male and female unemployment on first birth risks after German re-unification, using a piecewise constant model (see e.g. Blossfeld/Rohwer 1995). We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) of the year 1998. The analysis is restricted to East and West Germans of the birth cohorts 1955 to 1980. To reduce the heterogeneity of the comparison group, foreign nationals are excluded. Furthermore, individuals with missing information on the key variable (i.e. the birth biography) are also omitted.3 Altogether, the sample comprises 1,367 East German women, who gave birth to 780 children before censoring (and 2,536 West German women who gave birth to 1,086 children). Description of Survival Curves In Figure 3 (Panel 1), the survival curve for the transition to first birth for the birth cohorts 1955-1960 is displayed. The date of censoring is the be3 For readers who are familiar with the structure of the SOEP: We only use sample A and C. Furthermore, we exclude all (other) foreigners and ethnic German migrants from the analysis. We only use women who realized at least one interview. Finally, we omit all respondents with missing birth biographies (63 cases) and all respondents who report that they gave birth before age 17 (8 cases). Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 Changes in the Timing of First Birth 183 Fleischhacker, J. (1994): Im Westen stabil - im Osten instabil. Die ostdeutsche Bevölkerungsbewegung im Umbruch. Forum, demographie und politik (6): 31-52. Friedman, D. /Hechter, M. /Kanazawa, S. (1994): A Theory of the Value of Children. Demography 31 (3): 375-401. Grünert, K./Karl, A. (1997): Beschäftigungssystem und Arbeitsmarkt in der DDR. Opladen. Hirschman, C. (1994): Why fertility changes. Annual Review of Sociology 20: 203233. Holst, E. / Schupp, J. (1995): Aspekte der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Ostdeutschland. DIW-Wochenbericht (23): 1-17. Holst, E./ Schupp, J. (1996): Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen in Ostund Westdeutschland weiterhin von steigender Bedeutung. DIW-Wochenbericht (28): 461-469. Kleinbaum, D. G. (1996): Survival Analyis. New York. Fischner, R. (2000): Documentation of the Program Newspell (Version 1.2). In: SOEP 1984-1998. (CD-Rom). Rohwer, G. / Pötter, U. (1999): TDA User's Manual. Ruhr-Universität Bochum. Sackmann, R. (1999): Ist ein Ende der Fertilitätskrise in Ostdeutschland absehbar? Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 24 (2): 187-211. Sackmann, R./Wingens, M. (1996): Berufsverläufe im Transformationsprozeß. In: Diewald, M. (et al.) (eds.): Zwischenbilanz der Vereinigung. Opladen: 11-88. Schaich, E. (1998): Der Geburteneinbruch in den neuen Bundesländern seit 1990 einige Hypothesen zu seiner Erklärung. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 217 (1): 93-107. Schulz, E./ Wagner, G. G./ Witte, J. C. (1993): Gegenwärtiger Geburtenrückgang in Ostdeutschland läßt mittelfristig einen "Babyboom" erwarten. DIW Diskussionspapier (84). Solga, H. / Konietzka, D. (1999): Occupational matching and social stratification. European Sociological Review 15 (1): 25-47. Statistisches Bundesamt (1999): Bevölkerung und Erwerbstätigkeit. Gebiet und Bevölkerung. Fachserie 1 Reihe 1. Wiesbaden. Szydlik, M. (1994): Incomes in a planned and a market economy: the case of the German Democratic Republic and the 'former' Federal Republic of Germany. European Sociological Review (10) 3: 199-217. Trappe, H. (1995): Emanzipation oder Zwang? Frauen in der DDR zwischen Beruf, Familie und Sozialpolitik. Berlin. Turchi, B. A. (1975): The demand for children. The economics of fertility in the United States. Cambridge. Witte, J. C./Wagner, G. G. (1995): Declining fertility in East Germany after Re-unification: a demographic response to socioeconomic change. Population and Development Review 21 (2): 387-397. Zimmermann, K. F./DeNew, J. (1990): Arbeitslosigkeit und Fertilität. In: Felderer, B. (ed.): Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft. Berlin: 95-109. Schmollers Jahrbuch 120 (2000) 2 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under CC BY 4.0 | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.2.169 | Generated on 2023-04-04 12:27:24 184 Michaela Kreyenfeld Appendix Table 1 First Birth Risks in East and West Germany after Re-unification (Model I) East Germans West Germans b exp(b) t b exp(b) t Baseline (age) 15-20 -3.69 0.025 -4.34 0.013 20-24 -2.77 0.063 -2.95 0.052 24-28 -2.53 0.080 -2.50 0.082 28-38 -2.74 0.065 -2.42 0.089 Activity Status In education -0.93 0.40 -3.50*** -0.83 0.43 -4.31*** Part-time employment -0.08 0.93 -0.19 0.27 1.31 0.98 Full-time employment 0 1 0 1 Unemployment 0.49 1.63 2.03** 0.63 1.87 3.11*** Note: (1) Method: piece-wise constant model (2) Population: East and West Germans of the cohorts 1961-1980, who were childless in the beginning of the year 1991 (3) Cases were leftcensored in the year 1991 (4) Date of birth was backdated by nine months (5) Several flag variables were added to the regressions: for activity status missing and for missing information on the month of birth (6) ***: p < 0.01 **: 0.01 <p< 0.05 *: 0.05 < p < 0.10 (7) Source: SOEP. 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