Análisis y definición de Escenarios en programación estocástica para la Gestión de la Cadena de Suministros, en el sector del automóvil.
Abstract
En el Proyecto Schumann se ha desarrollado un nuevo software de Optimización y Planificación de la Cadena de Suministro, en el ámbito de la Fabricación, Montaje, Distribución y Servicio, (MADS) que incorpora funciones estocásticas para representar la
Full text
$QiOLVLV\GHILQLFLyQGH(VFHQDULRVHQSURJUDPDFLyQHVWRFiVWLFDSDUDOD *HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWURVHQHOVHFWRUGHODXWRPyYLO )UDQFLVFR&UX]/DULR(VWHEDQ$OHMDQGUR5RGUtJXH]9LOODORERV-RVp3HGUR*DUFtD6DEDWHU/)(VFXGHUR 'SWRGH2UJDQL]DFLyQGH(PSUHVDV(76,,&DPSXV9HUDVQ9DOHQFLDIFODULR#RPSXSYHV (VFROD3ROLWqFQLFD6XSHULRUG$OFRL3]D)HUUiQGL]&DUERQHOO$OFRLDURGULJXH]#RPSXSYHV 'SWRGH2UJDQL]DFLyQGH(PSUHVDV(76,,&DPSXV9HUDVQ9DOHQFLDMSJDUFLD#RPSXSYHV )DFXOWDGGH&LHQFLDV0DWHPiWLFDV8QLYHUVLGDG&RPSOXWHQVHGH0DGULG0DGULG 5(680(1 (QHO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQVHKDGHVDUUROODGRXQQXHYRVRIWZDUHGH2SWLPL]DFLyQ\3ODQLILFDFLyQ GHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWURHQHO iPELWRGH OD)DEULFDFLyQ0RQWDMH'LVWULEXFLyQ\6HUYLFLR 0$'6TXHLQFRUSRUDIXQFLRQHVHVWRFiVWLFDV SDUDUHSUHVHQWDUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUH(O3UR\HFWRKD HQIRFDGRHOWUDWDPLHQWRGHOD,QFHUWLGXPEUHPHGLDQWHHO$QiOLVLVGH(VFHQDULRV\VXFRQH[LyQ FRQODV7pFQLFDVGH&RPSXWDFLyQHQ3DUDOHOR ,QWURGXFFLyQ (O3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQ )XOO3URSRVDO$XJXVWHVWiILQDQFLDGRSRUOD(XURSHDQ8QLRQ GHQWURGHO3URJUDP(635,7 HQHOiUHD'RPDLQHFHQWUDGDHQHOGHVDUUROOR\DSOLFDFLyQGH ODV5HGHVGH&RPSXWDFLyQGH$OWDV3UHVWDFLRQHV+3&1HQOD3ODQLILFDFLyQ\2SWLPL]DFLyQ ,QGXVWULDO6XGXUDFLyQKDVLGRGHPHVHV(QHURGHD6HSWLHPEUHGHHOVHFWRU SLORWR IXH OD )DEULFDFLyQ \ 0RQWDMH GH $XWRPyYLOHV /RV SDUWQHUV LQGXVWULDOHV IXHURQ 'DLPOHU&KU\VOHU \ )RUG (VSDxD HO /LGHU GHO3UR\HFWR ,%(5,1&2 ,EHUGUROD ,QJHQLHUtD \ &RQVXOWRUtD FRQ HO VRSRUWH GH OD %UXQHO 8QLYHUVLW\ 8QLWHG .LQJGRP \ OD 8QLYHUVLGDG 3ROLWpFQLFD GH 9DOHQFLD &,*,3 /RJLVWLFV &RQVXOWLQJ 3DUWQHUV /&3 GHO 5HLQR 8QLGR DFWXyFRPRFRQVXOWRUHQWHPDVGH*HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUR (OREMHWLYRGHO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQKDVLGRGHVDUUROODU XQD $SOLFDFLyQ,QIRUPiWLFD SDUDOD 3ODQLILFDFLyQ \ OD 2SWLPL]DFLyQ GH OD &DGHQD GH 6XPLQLVWUR /DULR PHGLDQWH XQ 0RGHOR PXOWLSURGXFWR PXOWLQLYHO PXOWLSODQWD \ PXOWLSHULRGR HQ XQ HQWRUQR GH 3URGXFFLyQ 0RQWDMH 'LVWULEXFLyQ \ 6HUYLFLR 0$'6 ,QFRUSRUD WDPELpQ IXQFLRQHV HVWRFiVWLFDVSDUDUHSUHVHQWDUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUH(O3UR\HFWRVHKDFHQWUDGRHQHOWUDWDPLHQWR GHO,QFHUWLGXPEUHSRUPHGLRGHO$QiOLVLVGH(VFHQDULRV\VXFRQH[LyQFRQODV7pFQLFDVGH &RPSXWDFLyQHQ3DUDOHOR8QRGHORVWUHVSURWRWLSRVGHVDUUROODGRVVHKDUHDOL]DGRVREUHHO $SURYLVLRQDPLHQWR )DEULFDFLyQ \ 0RQWDMH GH YHKtFXORV DFWXDQGR )RUG (VSDxD FRPR HO SDUWQHU LQGXVWULDO +D VLGR VREUH HVWH SURWRWLSR TXH VH KD WUDEDMDGR HQ HO $QiOLVLV GH (VFHQDULRV /D$SOLFDFLyQGH3ODQLILFDFLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWURHQHQWRUQR0$'FRQVLGHUDGDHQ HO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQ >@>@DSRUWD,QFHUWLGXPEUH HQODGHPDQGD GHORVSURGXFWRVDVt FRPR HQ OD GLVSRQLELOLGDG FRVWH XRWURV DVSHFWRV WDQWR HQ OD REWHQFLyQ FRPR HQ OD SURGXFFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHV(QHVWDVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVODRSWLPL]DFLyQFRQVLVWHHQHQFRQWUDU ODPHMRUPDQHUDGHXWLOL]DUORVUHFXUVRVDSDUWLUGHXQRV (VFHQDULRV GDGRVSRUSDUiPHWURV HVWRFiVWLFRVDORODUJRGHOKRUL]RQWHGHSODQLILFDFLyQ>@ /D 2SWLPL]DFLyQ HVWRFiVWLFD PHGLDQWH $QiOLVLV GH (VFHQDULRV >@ KD VLGR OD PHWRGRORJtD XWLOL]DGDSDUDODUHVROXFLyQGHOSUREOHPDGH*HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUR*&6HQ HQWRUQR0$'63DUDHOORHVQHFHVDULRPRGHOL]DUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUH GHXQDIRUPDUHDOLVWD\ GHVDUUROODU XQD PHWRGRORJtD TXH SXHGD XVDUVH HQ OD SUiFWLFD HO p[LWR GH OD 2SWLPL]DFLyQ GHSHQGHGHODIDFLOLGDGHQODFRQVWUXFFLyQXQiUEROGH(VFHQDULRV UHODWLYDPHQWHVHQFLOOR
&62SWLPL]DFLyQ0DWHPiWLFD,QFHUWLGXPEUH\(VFHQDULRV (QDOJXQRVFDVRVOD3ODQLILFDFLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUR3&6VHHIHFW~DPHGLDQWHORV 0RGHORVGH2SWLPL]DFLyQ0DWHPiWLFDTXHSXHGHQUHSUHVHQWDUVHPHGLDQWHSUREOHPDVOLQHDOHV GH JUDQ WDPDxR 6LQ HPEDUJR OD RSWLPL]DFLyQ GHWHUPLQLVWD WUDGLFLRQDO QR HV YiOLGD SDUD UHSUHVHQWDUHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGLQiPLFRGHOD*&6HQODUHDOLGDGODUD]yQHVTXHKD\TXH FRQVLGHUDUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUH(QHVWDVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVODRSWLPL]DFLyQFRQVLVWLyHQHQFRQWUDUOD PHMRU PDQHUD GH XWLOL]DU ORV UHFXUVRV D SDUWLU GH XQRV (VFHQDULRV FRQVWUXLGRV GHVGH ORV SDUiPHWURVHVWRFiVWLFRVDORODUJRGHOKRUL]RQWHGH3ODQLILFDFLyQ D*HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUR\2SWLPL]DFLyQGHWHUPLQLVWD /RV PRGHORV WUDGLFLRQDOHV GH RSWLPL]DFLyQ GH OD *&6 GHVDUUROODQ 3ODQHV GH 3URGXFFLyQ VXMHWRVDGHPDQGDYDULDEOHTXHPLQLPL]DQORVFRVWHVGHORVUHFXUVRVKXPDQRVGHVXPLQLVWUR GHSURGXFFLyQ\GHDOPDFHQHV (VWH WLSR GH SUREOHPDV FRQGXFH D ORV PRGHORV GH 2SWLPL]DFLyQ 0DWHPiWLFD 6FKXPDQQ &RQVRUWLXP6HSWTXHKDQSHUPLWLGRUHVROYHUDOJXQRVHMHPSORVUHDOHVFRQODD\XGDGHO RUGHQDGRU 6LQ HPEDUJR HV LQWHUHVDQWH GLVHxDU XQ 0RGHOR *HQpULFR TXH FRPELQH OD SODQLILFDFLyQHVWUDWpJLFD\ODVGHFLVLRQHVORJtVWLFDVWiFWLFDV\TXHDGHPiVWHQJDHQFXHQWDHO IDFWRUWLHPSR \ORVHOHPHQWRVVXMHWRVD,QFHUWLGXPEUHHQOD*&6 .HNUHDQG.HNUH GHVDUUROODURQXQVLVWHPDGH3ODQLILFDFLyQGH&DSDFLGDGTXHPRGHOL]D HO7UDEDMRHQ&XUVR\HHOWLHPSRGH&LFOR\FRPELQDQHVWHFRQXQ0RGHORGH3URJUDPDFLyQ 0DWHPiWLFD GLVFUHWR HQ HO WLHPSR \ FRQ OD YDULDEOH GHPDQGD GHWHUPLQLVWD RIUHFLHQGR XQ LQWHUHVDQWH GHEDWH VREUH 3ODQLILFDFLyQ GH OD FDSDFLGDG 8VDURQ XQ VLVWHPD EDVDGR HQ (VFHQDULRV SHUR LQFLGHQ HQ ODV GHFLVLRQHV D ODUJR SOD]R SDUD OD HOHFFLyQ GH PiTXLQDV \ HTXLSRVSDUDSURGXFFLyQ &RKHQDQG/HH &RKHQDQG0RRQ \6KDSLURSUHVHQWDQYDULRVPRGHORV SDUDODRSWLPL]DFLyQJOREDOGHOD*HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDHQ3URGXFFLyQ (QHO0RGHOR6&+80$11/DULR VHHPSLH]DFRQODYHUVLyQGHWHUPLQLVWD\HQXQD VHJXQGD HWDSD VH LQWURGXFH OD ,QFHUWLGXPEUH /RV SDUiPHWURV \ ODV YDULDEOHV VXMHWDV D ,QFHUWLGXPEUHSXHGHQDQDOL]DUVHHQWpUPLQRVGHYDORU PHGLRHQWpUPLQRVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGH SUREDELOLGDG SDUD FDGD tWHP R XWLOL]DQGR XQ JUXSR UHSUHVHQWDWLYR GH (VFHQDULRV (Q 6FKXPDQQVHGHFLGLyGHVDUUROODUXQ$OJRULWPR(VWRFiVWLFREDVDGRHQXQD$SUR[LPDFLyQHQ GRVHWDSDVTXHXWLOL]DHO$QiOLVLVHVWRFiVWLFRGH(VFHQDULRV 6FKXPDQQ&RQVRUWLXP0DUFK E*HVWLyQGHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUR\2SWLPL]DFLyQHVWRFiVWLFD 6H GHVDUUROOy XQD HVWUXFWXUD GH PRGHOL]DFLyQ SDUD OD *&6 EDMR ,QFHUWLGXPEUH EDVDGD HQ 6TXLUHDQG.DPHVDQ DQG6TXLUH ,JXDOPHQWH(VFXGHUR.DPHVDP.LQJ \ :HWV SODQWHDQ OD 3ODQLILFDFLyQ GH 3URGXFFLyQ 9tD (VFHQDULRV \ SRVWHULRUPHQWH (VFXGHUR \ .DPHVDP HQIRFDQ OD 3ODQLILFDFLyQ GH 3URGXFFLyQ YtD PRGHOL]DFLyQ GH (VFHQDULRV (Q HO 3UR\HFWR VH XWLOL]DURQ ODV DOWHUQDWLYDV EDVDGDV HQ SURFHGLPLHQWRV VHFXHQFLDOHV SDUD OD UHVROYHU HO SUREOHPD JOREDO SDUD XQ (VFHQDULR GDGR R OD YHUVLyQ HVWRFiVWLFDSDUDXQQ~PHURUHGXFLGRGH(VFHQDULRV (VLQWHUHVDQWHUHPDUFDUTXHVHRSWySRUXWLOL]DUORVSURFHGLPLHQWRVGH'HVFRPSRVLFLyQ
/DJUDQJLDQD SDUDPDQHMDUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUHHQORVPRGHORVGHRSWLPL]DFLyQ\DTXHGLFKD GHVFRPSRVLFLyQHVWiSDUWLFXODUPHQWHDGDSWDGDDORVHQWRUQRVGHFRPSXWDFLyQHQSDUDOHOR(O Q~PHURGH(VFHQDULRVDFRQVLGHUDUHVWXYROLPLWDGRSRUODVWpFQLFDVGHUHVROXFLyQ\ODSRWHQFLD FRPSXWDFLRQDOGLVSRQLEOH (V LQWHUHVDQWH UHPDUFDU TXH VH RSWy SRU XWLOL]DU ORV SURFHGLPLHQWRV GH 'HVFRPSRVLFLyQ /DJUDQJLDQD SDUDPDQHMDUOD,QFHUWLGXPEUHHQORVPRGHORVGHRSWLPL]DFLyQ\DTXHGLFKD GHVFRPSRVLFLyQHVWi SDUWLFXODUPHQWHDGDSWDGDDORVHQWRUQRVGHFRPSXWDFLyQHQSDUDOHOR(O Q~PHURGH(VFHQDULRVDFRQVLGHUDUHVWXYROLPLWDGRSRUODVWpFQLFDVGHUHVROXFLyQ\ODSRWHQFLD FRPSXWDFLRQDOGLVSRQLEOH /DRSWLPL]DFLyQHVWRFiVWLFDPHGLDQWH$QiOLVLVGH(VFHQDULRV XWLOL]DGDREOLJyDPRGHOL]DUOD ,QFHUWLGXPEUH GH XQD IRUPD UHDOLVWD \ D GHVDUUROODU XQD 0HWRGRORJtD GH $QiOLVLV GH (VFHQDULRVTXHSXGLHVHXWLOL]DUVHIiFLOPHQWH'HOPLVPRPRGRHOp[LWRGHODRSWLPL]DFLyQ GHSHQGLyGHODIDFLOLGDGHQODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHXQÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRV UHODWLYDPHQWHVHQFLOOR (VFHQDULRV (IHFWXDGD OD LQWURGXFFLyQ D OD XWLOL]DFLyQ GH OD 2SWLPL]DFLyQ HVWRFiVWLFD >@ HQ HVWD FRPXQLFDFLyQ VH WUDWD GH H[SOLFLWDU HO (QIRTXH GH (VFHQDULRV >@ \ OD PHWRGRORJtD GHVDUUROODGDHQHOFRQWH[WRGHO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQ &RQFHSWRGH(VFHQDULRV\ÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRV 8Q(VFHQDULRSXHGHVHUGHILQLGRFRPRODUHSUHVHQWDFLyQGHODSRVLEOHHYROXFLyQGHXQVLVWHPD KDFLD XQ HVWDGR IXWXUR )LJXUD HO HVFHQDULR PRVWUDUi OD KLSRWpWLFD VLWXDFLyQ GH FDGD SDUiPHWUR FRQVWLWXWLYR GH XQ VLVWHPD SDUD FDGD SHUtRGR GH XQ GHWHUPLQDGR KRUL]RQWH GH SODQLILFDFLyQ (QWRUQRGHOVLVWHPD VLVWHPD YDULDEOHV (QWRUQRGHOVLVWHPD VLVWHPD YDULDEOHV )LJXUD'HILQLFLyQGHO6LVWHPD /DGLYLVLyQGHOKRUL]RQWHGHSODQLILFDFLyQQR WLHQHQHFHVDULDPHQWHTXHKDFHUVHHQSHULRGRV LJXDOHVHQHVWHFDVRHOXVXDULRILQDOSURSXVRODXWLOL]DFLyQGHXQDHVFDODWHPSRUDOGRQGHORV SHULRGRVLQLFLDOHVVRQPiVSHTXHxRVTXHORVSHULRGRVILQDOHV(VWRUHVSRQGHDODDJUHJDFLyQ GHODLQIRUPDFLyQGHORVSHULRGRVPiVDOHMDGRVGHOKRUL]RQWHGHSODQLILFDFLyQ(QOD)LJXUD VH SXHGH REVHUYDU TXH GLFKD DJUHJDFLyQ HV FUHFLHQWH HQ HO WLHPSR DO LJXDO TXH OD LQFHUWLGXPEUH DVRFLDGD D DOJXQRV GH ORV SDUiPHWURV \ YDULDEOHV (VWD GLYLVLyQ WHPSRUDOVH DMXVWDDORVSURFHVRVGHFLVLRQDOHV\GHSODQLILFDFLyQGHOXVXDULRILQDOSRUWDQWRORVUHVXOWDGRV REWHQLGRVVLJXLHQGRHVWDHVWUXFWXUDVRQIiFLOPHQWHLQWHUSUHWDGRVSRUHOXVXDULRILQDO
6HHQWLHQGHFRPRÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRVODUHSUHVHQWDFLyQGHXQFRQMXQWRGHHVFHQDULRVFDGD UDPD GHO iUERO VHUi XQD SRVLEOH HYROXFLyQ GHO VLVWHPD 6HJ~Q .DKQ \ :LHQHU >@ ³ORV (VFHQDULRVVRQXQLQVWUXPHQWRTXHQRVD\XGDQDPHMRUDUQXHVWUDFRPSUHQVLyQVREUHODV FRQVHFXHQFLDV D ODUJR SOD]R GH ODV WHQGHQFLDV GH SROtWLFDV H[LVWHQWHV R SRWHQFLDOHV \ VXV LQWHUDFFLRQHV´ ,QFHUWLGXPEUH +R\ (VFDOD7HPSRUDO ,QIRUPDFLyQ 3ODQLILFDFLyQ +RUL]RQWHGH S GLDV VHPDQDV PHV WULPHVWUH S S S S S S S S S S $JUHJDFLyQ ,QFHUWLGXPEUH +R\ (VFDOD7HPSRUDO ,QIRUPDFLyQ 3ODQLILFDFLyQ +RUL]RQWHGH S GLDV VHPDQDV PHV WULPHVWUH S S S S S S S S S S $JUHJDFLyQ )LJXUD'LYLVLyQHQSHULRGRVGHOKRUL]RQWHGHSODQLILFDFLyQ $OFRQWUDULRGHORTXHVHSLHQVDFRP~QPHQWHXQ(VFHQDULRQRHVFDGDXQRGHORVSRVLEOHV HVWDGRV ILQDOHV WDO \ FRPR VH REVHUYD )LJXUD HO(VFHQDULR HV UHDOPHQWH XQD GH ODV SRVLEOHVHYROXFLRQHV GHOVLVWHPDGHVGHODVLWXDFLyQDFWXDOKDVWDXQDKLSRWpWLFDVLWXDFLyQ ÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRV (VFHQDULR (VFHQDULR (VWDGRV$OWHUQDWLYRV (VWDGR,QLFLDO (VFHQDULR (VWDGRV$OWHUQDWLYRV (VWDGR,QLFLDO )LJXUD(MHPSORGHiUEROGHHVFHQDULRV 6HJ~Q>@³HOPpWRGRGH(VFHQDULRVWLHQHSRUREMHWRGHILQLUXQHVWDGRIXWXURGHXQVLVWHPD FRQRFLGR DFWXDOPHQWH SRU OR PHQRV SDUFLDOPHQWH H LQGLFDU ORV GLVWLQWRV SURFHVRV TXH SHUPLWHQSDVDUGHOHVWDGRSUHVHQWHDODLPDJHQIXWXUD´(VWDYLVLyQGH(VFHQDULRVKDVHUYLGR SDUD FRRUGLQDU OD YLVLyQ GHO XVXDULR ILQDO FRQ OD GHO FRQVRUFLR GH GHVDUUROOR GHO 3UR\HFWR 6FKXPDQQ 3DUiPHWURV\9DULDEOHVVXMHWRVD,QFHUWLGXPEUH /RVSDUiPHWURVRYDULDEOHV VXMHWRVD,QFHUWLGXPEUHTXHVHKDQWRPDGRVRQORVVLJXLHQWHV 'HPDQGDH[WHUQDSRUIXHQWH\SHULRGR\GHPDQGDH[WHUQDQRVHUYLGD
'LVSRQLELOLGDGHQODREWHQFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVHQORVPRGRVHVWiQGDU\ H[SHGLWLYR SRUFRPSRQHQWH\SHULRGR &RVWHV XQLWDULRV GH REWHQFLyQ GH ORV FRPSRQHQWHV \ HQVDPEODMHV PRGR HVWiQGDU \ H[SHGLWLYRSRUFRPSRQHQWH\SHUtRGR &RVWHXQLWDULRGHSURGXFFLyQPRGRHVWiQGDUSRUSURGXFWR\SHULRGR 6HJPHQWRGH3HULRGRV(IHFWLYRV(36SRUFRPSRQHQWH\SURGXFWR 'LVWULEXFLRQHVGH3UREDELOLGDG (O 3UR\HFWR 6FKXPDQQ FRQVLGHUD OD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH SUREDELOLGDG GH ORV SDUiPHWURV FRPR SDUWHGHODGHILQLFLyQGHOPRGHORORTXHUHTXLHUH 8QFRQRFLPLHQWRGHJUDQFDQWLGDGGHGDWRVKLVWyULFRV 8QDGLVWULEXFLyQGHSUREDELOLGDGDVXPLGDRHVWLPDGD (OFRQRFLPLHQWRGHFLHUWRVWLSRVGHUHODFLRQHVHQWUHODVYDULDEOHV &RQRFLPLHQWRVVREUHFRPSOLFDGRVDOJRULWPRVSDUDUHVROYHUHOSUREOHPD &RQRFLPLHQWRVGHWHRUtDHVWDGtVWLFD 0HWRGRORJtDSDUDHO$QiOLVLV\'HILQLFLyQGH(VFHQDULRV 3DUDHOGHVDUUROORGHOSUR\HFWR6FKXPDQQVHHVWDEOHFLyXQD 0HWRGRORJtD SDUDHODQiOLVLV\ GHILQLFLyQGH(VFHQDULRV'LFKDPHWRGRORJtDVHFDUDFWHUL]DEDSRU ,QFHUWLGXPEUHOLJDGDDXQFRQMXQWRGHSDUiPHWURVTXHLQIOXLUiQHQPD\RURPHQRUPHGLGD HQHOUHVXOWDGRILQDO (YROXFLyQGHIDFWRUHVLPSUHGHFLEOHV 3DUiPHWURVFRQFDUiFWHUDOHDWRULRTXHSXHGHQGHVHPERFDUHQVLWXDFLRQHVLPSUHYLVWDV 7DO\FRPRVHFRPHQWDEDDQWHULRUPHQWHHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOD,QFHUWLGXPEUHSDUDKRUL]RQWHV GHSODQLILFDFLyQ OHMDQRVLPSOLFD PD\RUHVHVSHFWURSDUDWRGRVORVIDFWRUHV(VWRXQLGRDOD H[SORVLyQFRPELQDWRULDGHWHUPLQDODQHFHVLGDGGHXQDQiOLVLVGHUHOLHYHSDUDVHOHFFLRQDU\ DFRWDUHOFRQMXQWRGH(VFHQDULRVDHVWXGLDU3RUWDQWRSDUDODFRQILJXUDFLyQGHO6LVWHPDVHKD FRQVLGHUy QHFHVDULR XQ $QiOLVLV GHWDOODGR GHO 6LVWHPD &RPR HQ WRGR SURFHVR GH PRGHOL]DFLyQHQHVWHFDVRWDPELpQVHUHDOL]DURQKLSyWHVLVVLPSOLILFDWLYDVVHJ~QXQJUDGRGH VLPSOLILFDFLyQ\FULWHULRGHOPRGHOL]DGRU(VWHDQiOLVLVGHOVLVWHPDVHUHDOL]yDWHQGLHQGRDOD JUDQLQWHUUHODFLyQH[LVWHQWHHQWUH HO0RGHOR\HO$OJRULWPR0DWHPiWLFR )XH QHFHVDULR WDPELpQ OD HODERUDFLyQ GH XQ 3URFHGLPLHQWR SDUD OD UHFRSLODFLyQ GH OD LQIRUPDFLyQ ODERUHV GH FDPSR EDVDGR IXQGDPHQWDOPHQWH HQ HQWUHYLVWDV \ HQ OD FRPSUREDFLyQGHODYHUDFLGDGGHODLQIRUPDFLyQ3DUDJDUDQWL]DUODLQWHJULGDGGHORVGDWRVVH UHDOL]y XQD KHUUDPLHQWD VRIWZDUH GRQGH DOPDFHQDU GH IRUPD HVWUXFWXUDGD \ RULHQWDGD DO PRGHOR OD LQIRUPDFLyQ UHFRSLODGD (VWD KHUUDPLHQWD VXSXVR XQ YHUGDGHUR SXHQWH HQWUH ORV 6LVWHPDVGH,QIRUPDFLyQGHOXVXDULROD,QIRUPDFLyQSURSRUFLRQDGD\HO6LVWHPDGHVDUUROODGR SRUHOFRQVRUFLR6FKXPDQQ (O SURFHVR GH 0RGHOL]DFLyQ UHTXLULy WDPELpQ GHO $QiOLVLV GH ORV IDFWRUHV FRQILJXUDWLYRV DWHQGLHQGRSULQFLSDOPHQWHD 1DWXUDOH]DGHODVYDULDEOHV¢GHTXpWLSRVRQ" 6XFRPSRUWDPLHQWRDQWHHYROXFLRQHVGHOHQWRUQR\HOVLVWHPD /DLQWHUUHODFLyQGHXQDVFRQRWUDV 5HODFLRQHVGHGHSHQGHQFLDRLQGHSHQGHQFLD $FRWDUHOUDQJRGHSRVLEOHVYDORUHV
(VWH SURFHVR GH DQiOLVLV GH ORV IDFWRUHV FRQILJXUDWLYRV VH FRQVLGHUD FRPR XQ SDVR IXQGDPHQWDOSDUD 7UDVODGDUDOPRGHORODQDWXUDOH]DFRPSRUWDPLHQWR\UHODFLyQGHYDULDEOHVSUHVHQWHHQ HOVLVWHPD $FRWDU\VLPSOLILFDUODH[SORVLyQFRPELQDWRULD *DUDQWL]DUODLQWHJULGDGGHORVHVWDGRV\GHORVHVFHQDULRVJHQHUDGRV $GHPiVGHHVWRVHWXYRTXHGHILQLUHOKRUL]RQWHGHSODQLILFDFLyQ7DO\FRPRVHKDFRPHQWDGR DQWHULRUPHQWHHVWRVHUHDOL]yDWHQGLHQGRDODVQHFHVLGDGHVGHOXVXDULR\SRUWDQWRIDFLOLWDQGR QRVyORODLQWURGXFFLyQGHODLQIRUPDFLyQVLQRODLQWHUSUHWDFLyQ\DQiOLVLVGHORVUHVXOWDGRV *HQHUDFLyQGH(VFHQDULRV (Q FXDQWR D OD *HQHUDFLyQ GH (VFHQDULRV VH KDQ FRQVLGHUDGR FXDWUR HOHPHQWRV IXQGDPHQWDOHV &XDOLWDWLYR (O HOHPHQWR FXDOLWDWLYR KDFH XVR GH PpWRGRV FXDOLWDWLYRV %UDLPVWRUPLQJ /DWHUDO7KLQNLQJ0'HOSKL$QDORJtDV$QiOLVLV0RUIROyJLFRHWF\HVWiHVSHFLDOPHQWH LQGLFDGR SDUD HO DQiOLVLV LQLFLDO GHO VLVWHPD \ OD PRGHOL]DFLyQ DQWHULRUPHQWH FLWDGRV HVWXGLR\GHWHUPLQDFLyQGHORVSDUiPHWURV\YDULDEOHVFRQILJXUDWLYDVGHOPRGHOR &XDQWLWDWLYR(OHOHPHQWRFXDQWLWDWLYRHVHOUHVSRQVDEOHGHJHQHUDUDSDUWLUGHXQHVWDGR LQLFLDOWRGRVORVSRVLEOHVHVWDGRVIXWXURV(VWHHOHPHQWRHVWiHVWUHFKDPHQWHUHODFLRQDGR FRQORVHOHPHQWRVWLHPSR\SUREDELOLGDG\WLHQHSUHVHQWHDOJXQRVDVSHFWRVFXDOLWDWLYRVGH ODVYDULDEOHVSDUDJDUDQWL]DUODIDFWLELOLGDGHLQWHJULGDGGHORVGDWRVJHQHUDGRV 7LHPSRHOHPHQWRFODYHGHODJHQHUDFLyQGH(VFHQDULRV6HGHEHSUHVWDUHVSHFLDODWHQFLyQD OD GHILQLFLyQ GHO KRUL]RQWH GH SODQLILFDFLyQ OD GLYLVLyQ HQ SHUtRGRV GHO KRUL]RQWH \ HO FRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHDOJXQDVYDULDEOHV\SDUiPHWURVHQIXQFLyQGHOWLHPSR 3UREDELOLGDGFRQODTXHSXHGHGDUVHXQGHWHUPLQDGRVXFHVRRHVWDGRGHODVYDULDEOHV(VWH HOHPHQWRHVWiUHODFLRQDGRVREUHWRGRFRQHOHOHPHQWRWLHPSR\FXDQWLWDWLYR(QHVWHSXQWR VHGHEHGLVWLQJXLUHQWUHHO(VFHQDULR7HQGHQFLDO \HO(VFHQDULR&RQWUDVWDGR >@ 7HQGHQFLDO (VHOFDPLQRPiVSUREDEOHHQWRGRVDTXHOORVPRPHQWRVHQORVTXHKD\D TXHSURFHGHUDXQDHOHFFLyQ(VHQUHDOLGDGHO(VFHQDULRPiVSUREDEOHGH5HIHUHQFLD &RQWUDVWDGR(VHOFDPLQRPHQRVSUREDEOHSHURFX\RFRQRFLPLHQWRSXHGHVHU~WLOD ILQGHDSUHFLDUSRVLEOHVSHOLJURV +D\TXHUHFRUGDUTXHODSURVSHFWLYDQREXVFDVHOHFFLRQDUHOHVWDGRPiVSUREDEOHFRPREDVH GHO HVWXGLR GH HVWUDWHJLDV VLQR TXH SUHWHQGH KDFHU XQ LQYHQWDULR GH ORV GLVWLQWRV HVWDGRV SRVLEOHV SDUDUHGXFLUHOULHVJRGHFULVLV(QFXDQWRDOD*HQHUDFLyQGH(VFHQDULRVHO&,*,3 &HQWURGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQHQ *HVWLyQ H,QJHQLHUtD GH3URGXFFLyQSURSXVRHQHOPDUFRGHO SUR\HFWR6FKXPDQQGLIHUHQWHVPpWRGRV GH*HQHUDFLyQ D *HQHUDFLyQSRU(YROXFLyQGRQGHVHSDUWHGHXQFRQMXQWRGHGDWRVKLVWyULFRV\FRQ WpFQLFDVGH3UHYLVLyQVHHVWDEOHFHXQDWHQGHQFLDSDUDFDGDYDULDEOH3RVWHULRUPHQWHD HVWDOtQHDEDVHRWHQGHQFLDOVHOHDxDGHSDUDFDGDSHUtRGRODIXQFLyQ,QFHUWLGXPEUH/D KRUTXLOODGHLQFHUWLGXPEUHHVFUHFLHQWHFRQHOWLHPSR
E *HQHUDFLyQHQEDVHD3ODQLILFDFLyQHQHVWHFDVRODOtQHDEDVHQRHVXQDWHQGHQFLD SUHYLVWD VLQR HO UHVXOWDGR GH XQRV REMHWLYRV SH 3ODQLILFDFLyQ $JUHJDGD $ FRQWLQXDFLyQVHHVWDEOHFHODIXQFLyQLQFHUWLGXPEUHFRPRSRVLEOHVGHVYLDFLRQHVVREUH ORSODQLILFDGR(VWDIXQFLyQHVFUHFLHQWHHQHOWLHPSR\HVWDEOHVXQDKRUTXLOODFUHFLHQWH GH SRVLEOHV GHVYLDFLRQHV VREUH HO SODQ $ GLIHUHQFLD GHO PpWRGR DQWHULRU WLHQH OD YHQWDMDGHQRUHTXHULUGHODUHFRSLODFLyQ\SURFHVDPLHQWRGHGDWRVKLVWyULFRVUHTXLHUH VLQHPEDUJRGHOUHVXOWDGRGHXQSURFHVRGHSODQLILFDFLyQ F *HQHUDFLyQ SRU &RPSRUWDPLHQWR HQ HVWH PpWRGR FDGD YDULDEOH WLHQH DVRFLDGR XQ FRPSRUWDPLHQWR UHVXOWDGR GHO DQiOLVLV FXDOLWDWLYR TXH UHSHUFXWH HQ VX YDORU HOHPHQWRFXDQWLWDWLYR3DUDFDGDSHUtRGRHOVLVWHPDHYROXFLRQDDWHQGLHQGRDOHVWDGR DQWHULRU\DORVFRPSRUWDPLHQWRVDVRFLDGRVSDUDFDGDYDULDEOH(OFRPSRUWDPLHQWRVH HQWLHQGHFRPRXQDIXQFLyQGLIXVDFRQSUREDELOLGDGHVDVRFLDGDV$PHGLGDTXHFUHFH HO KRUL]RQWH WHPSRUDO HO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR VH KDFH PiV GLIXVR LQWURGXFLHQGR DVt HO IDFWRULQFHUWLGXPEUH(ODQiOLVLVFXDOLWDWLYRGHODVYDULDEOHVQDWXUDOH]DLQWHUUHODFLRQHV \ FRPSRUWDPLHQWR VH SUHVHQWD FRPR IXQGDPHQWDO SDUD HVWH PpWRGR GH JHQHUDFLyQ SHURDODYH]FRPRPD\RULQFRQYHQLHQWHGDGRHOWLHPSRQHFHVDULR )LQDOPHQWH SDUD OD FRQH[LyQ FRQ OD 3URJUDPDFLyQ (VWRFiVWLFD VH HIHFWXy XQD *HQHUDFLyQ &RPELQDGDGH(VFHQDULRV\XQ0RGHORSDUD*HQHUDU(VFHQDULRV >@GHPDQHUDDXWRPiWLFD EDVDGRHQ1HXUDO1HWZRUNV0RQWH&DUOR0HWKRGVHJ~QSURSXHVWDGH,%(5,1&2 /DGHILQLFLyQGHOiUEROGH(VFHQDULRVXWLOL]DGDHQHO3UR\HFWRVHFDUDFWHUL]DSRUTXHHOXVXDULR SXHGHGHILQLUXQHVFHQDULREiVLFR \ODYDULDELOLGDGGHORVSDUiPHWURVDVRFLDGRV DSDUWLUGH pVWHHOVLVWHPDLQIRUPiWLFRFUHD XWLOL]DQGRHOPpWRGRFLWDGR>@HOiUEROGH(VFHQDULRV8QD YH] UHVXHOWR HO SUREOHPD >@ HO VLVWHPD PXHVWUD ORV UHVXOWDGRV GH PDQHUD TXH IDFLOLWH DO XVXDULR OD VHOHFFLyQ GH ORV (VFHQDULRV PiV LQWHUHVDQWHV )LJXUD SDUD VX HYDOXDFLyQ \ DQiOLVLV 'HODWRWDOLGDGGHSRVLEOHV(VFHQDULRVVHVHOHFFLRQDUiXQFRQMXQWR FRQHOREMHWLYRGHDFRWDUHO SUREOHPD\ VLPSOLILFDUVXDQiOLVLV(OPpWRGRGHVHOHFFLyQGH(VFHQDULRVGHEHUiEXVFDUQR VyORORV(VFHQDULRVSUREDEOHVVLQRWDPELpQORV(VFHQDULRVLQWHUHVDQWHV³8Q(VFHQDULRGH IDOORGHVHUYLFLRSRUSDUWHGHO3URYHHGRUSXHGHVHUSRFRSUREDEOHSHURLQWHUHVDQWH6LRFXUUH SXHGHFRORFDUDODHPSUHVDHQXQSRVLFLRQDPLHQWRFRPSOLFDGRHLQHVSHUDGR´ ÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRV 'LVWULEXFLyQGH3UREDELOLGDG (VFHQDULRPX\SUREDEOH (VFHQDULRV,QWHUHVDQWHV (VFHQDULRSRFRSUREDEOH ÈUEROGH(VFHQDULRV 'LVWULEXFLyQGH3UREDELOLGDG (VFHQDULRPX\SUREDEOH (VFHQDULRV,QWHUHVDQWHV (VFHQDULRSRFRSUREDEOH )LJXUD(VFHQDULRVSUREDEOHVYVHVFHQDULRVLQWHUHVDQWHV
&RQFOXVLRQHV (VWHDUWtFXORPXHVWUDODLPSRUWDQFLDGHOD*HQHUDFLyQ\$QiOLVLVGH(VFHQDULRV FRPRSDUWH GHOPpWRGRGHUHVROXFLyQGHSUREOHPDVGH*&6 OLJDGRVD,QFHUWLGXPEUHHQHQWRUQR0$'6 \HQHOPDUFRGHO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQ 7DPELpQVHPXHVWUDOD0HWRGRORJtD GHWUDEDMRSDUDOD0RGHOL]DFLyQGHOHQWRUQR GRQGHDFW~D OD SODQLILFDFLyQ HO HVWXGLR GH YDULDEOHV \ SDUiPHWURV \ OD GHILQLFLyQ GH XQ 0pWRGR GH *HQHUDFLyQGH(VFHQDULRV (Q OD GHILQLFLyQ GHO iUERO GH (VFHQDULRV XWLOL]DGD HQ HO 3UR\HFWR HO XVXDULR GHILQH XQ HVFHQDULREiVLFR\ODYDULDELOLGDGGHORVSDUiPHWURV\HOVLVWHPDLQIRUPiWLFRFUHDHOiUEROGH HVFHQDULRV(VWDPHWRGRORJtDVHPRQVWUyDSURSLDGD\DTXHIDFLOLWDDOXVXDULRODVHOHFFLyQGH ORV(VFHQDULRVPiVLQWHUHVDQWHVQRVyORORVPiVSUREDEOHV )LQDOPHQWHVHHIHFWXyODGHILQLFLyQGHO&RQMXQWRGH(VFHQDULRV HQOD (PSUHVDSLORWR VHFWRU DXWRPyYLOORTXHSHUPLWLyDOFDQ]DUHO REMHWLYR~OWLPRGH3UR\HFWR DSUREDGRHQHO5HYLHZ 0HHWLQJILQDOGH6HSWLHPEUHGH 5HIHUHQFLDV >@/DULR)&(VFXGHUR/3DVWRU6*DUFtD-35RGULJXH]$³/DRSWLPL]DFLyQ GHOD&DGHQDGH6XPLQLVWUREDMRLQFHUWLGXPEUHHO3UR\HFWR6FKXPDQQ´ ,,,-RUQDGDVGH ,QJHQLHUtDGH2UJDQL]DFLyQ%DUFHORQDGHVHSWLHPEUH >@ /DULR )& (VFXGHUR / 3DVWRU 6 *DUFLD -3 ³6XSSO\ &KDLQ 0DQDJHPHQWH SODQQLQJRSWLPLVDWLRQXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\PRGHOOLQJDQGVROYLQJDSSOLHGWRDFRPSDQ\ LQ WKH DXWRPRWLYHV VHFWRU´$GYDQFHG &RPSXWHU 6\VWHPV $&6 6HSWHPEHU 6]FHFLQ3RODQG >@ 6&+80$11 ³)XOO 3URSRVDO $XJXVW 6XSSO\ &KDLQ 8QFHUWDLQW\ 0DQDJHPHQW1HWZRUN2SWLPL]DWLRQ´(XURSHDQ&RPLVVLRQ >@6&+80$11&216257,80³6XSSO\&KDLQPDQDJHPHQW0RGHO6SHFLILFDWLRQ 'HOLYHUDEOH'(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*,,,,QGXVWU\ >@ 6&+80$11 &216257,80 ³,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH 6FHQDULR *HQHUDWLRQ 6FKHPH´'HOLYHUDEOH'(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*,,,,QGXVWU\ >@ (VFXGHUR / ) .DPHVDP 39 ³2Q VROYLJ VWRFKDVWLF SURGXFWLRQ 3ODQQLQJ SUREOHPVYLDVFHQDULRPRGHOOLQJ´723 >@ (VFXGHUR / ) .DPHVDP 39 .LQJ $- :HWV -% ³3URGXFWLRQ 3ODQQLQJ SUREOHPVYLDVFHQDULRPRGHOOLQJ´$QQDOVRI2SHUDWLRQVUHVHDUFK >@5LQJODQG*³6FHQDULR3ODQQLQJ0DQDJLQJIRUWKHIXWXUH´:LOH\ >@9DQ'HU+HLMGHQ.³6FHQDULRVWKHDUWRIVWUDWHJLFFRQYHUVDWLRQ´:LOH\ >@.DKQ+:LHQHU$-³7KH<HDU´1<0DFPLOODQ >@ 6DLQW 3DXO 5 7HQLHUH %XFKRW 3) ³,QQRYDWLRQ HW pYDOXDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLTXHV VpOHFWLRQGHVSURMHWVPpWKRGHVHWSUpYLVLRQV´(QWHUSULVH0RGHUQHG¶(GLWRQ >@*RGHW0³3URVSHFWLYHHWSODQLILFDWLRQVWUDWpJLTXH´(FRQRPLFD