Agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran

1 Vol.:(0123456789) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports Agro‑economic and socio‑environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran Fatemeh Karandish1,2*, Hamideh Nouri3 & Marcela Brugnach4,5 Ending hunger and ensuring food security are among targets of 2030’s SDGs. While food trade and the embedded (virtual) water (VW) may improve food availability and accessibility for more people all year round, the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trade needs to be revisited. In this research, we assess the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trades under two food security scenarios for Iran, a country suffering from an escalating water crisis. These scenarios are (1) Individual Crop Food Security (ICFS), which restricts calorie fulfillment from individual crops and (2) Crop Category Food Security (CCFS), which promotes “eating local” by suggesting food substitution within the crop category. To this end, we simulate the water footprint and VW trades of 27 major crops, within 8 crop categories, in 30 provinces of Iran (2005–2015). We investigate the impacts of these two scenarios on (a) provincial food security (FSp) and exports; (b) sustainable and efficient blue water consumption, and (c) blue VW export. We then test the correlation between agro‑economic and socio‑environmental indicators and provincial food security. Our results show that most provinces were threatened by unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption for crop production, particularly in the summertime. This water mismanagement results in 14.41 and 8.45 billion m3 y −1 unsustainable and inefficient blue VW exports under ICFS. “Eating local” improves the FSp value by up to 210% which lessens the unsustainable and inefficient blue VW export from hotspots. As illustrated in the graphical abstract, the FSp value strongly correlates with different agro‑economic and socio‑environmental indicators, but in different ways. Our findings promote “eating local” besides improving agro‑ economic and socio‑environmental conditions to take transformative steps toward eradicating food insecurity not only in Iran but also in other countries facing water limitations. Food security is a global challenge under an ever-increasing population and ever-shrinking finite resources. Currently, about one billion (16%) of the world’s population are undernourished, 80% of which live in the global south1. Globally, fulfilling food demand is facing two main challenges concerning land and water availability2,3. On one hand, global croplands are significantly reduced by urbanization growth, the overexploitation of fertile lands and deforestation4. On the other hand, food production within the remaining croplands is also restricted by ever-shrinking finite water resources. This is resulting in an intensification of management strategies, such as improving agricultural practices or water management to enhance the productivity of cropping systems5. However, the food security achieved under these strategies is, in some nations, mainly at the expense of the environment; in particular of freshwater resources3. These strategies cannot last long, unless they are systematically revisited based on the availability and sustainability of resources1,6. Among numerous quantitative indicators, water footprint (WF)7 is known as a multidimensional indicator of water consumption, which can be used to formulate pathways to achieve sustainable water resource development in agriculture. Along with WF assessment (WFA), recent studies proved that water scarcity could be alleviated through efficient water use in croplands by mulching and efficient irrigation systems8,9, changing cropping patterns9, or benchmarking10,11. Virtual water (VW) trade is another concept that was developed to monitor OPEN 1Water Engineering Department, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. 2Multidisciplinary Water Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands. 3Division of Agronomy, University of Göttingen, Von-Siebold-Strasse 8, 37075 Göttingen, Germany. 4Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Spain. 5Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, Bilbao, Spain. *email: f[email protected] 2 Vol:.(1234567890) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ and manage embedded water in crop trades. Water-smart food trade in water-scarce regions, i.e. importing water-intensive crops instead of domestic production, has the potential to achieve higher levels of food and water security compared to localized food production from a water management point of view12,13. On the contrary, water scarcity in exporting regions could be escalated when VW flows are issued in the opposite direction14,15. Many countries in the world are involved in VW trade and satisfy their food demand through the import/ export process. Additionally, increasing water trades become problematic since they, not only decrease already scarce water resources, but also reduce the resilience of communities toward unanticipated crises16. Indeed, a VW trade is labeled sustainable when the products are not produced at and exported from hotspots, where the water consumption exceeds the sustainable availability of water. Crop-related VW trade is efficient when the WFs of the produced crops in the exporting regions are lower than their benchmark levels. The literature review reveals that little research has been done on the sustainability and efficiency of interor intra-national VW trade. In Iran, relocating wheat cultivation may modify crop and VW trade direction to reduce consumption in waterscarce provinces17. In the UK, for example, it was claimed that about 50% of the imported VW was unsustainable and inefficient since it originated from countries with blue water scarcity (BWS) > 1 and WF values beyond the benchmark levels18. Another study revealed that cotton consumption in Germany exacerbates water scarcity in Pakistan, and deteriorates the quality of drinking water. Hence, a global effort should raise awareness on the impacts of externalizing the water consumption of a nation and its repercussions on water resources of another nation19. A crop-related WF assessment of Iran demonstrated that the direction of provincial VW trade occurred from the water-scarce provinces to the water-abundant ones20. Here, and for the first time, we assessed the efficiency and sustainability of the inter-provincial crop-related VW export under different food security scenarios as a case study for Iran, the second largest country in the most water scarce region of the world, The Middle East and North Africa (MENA)21. Iran is facing a severe BWS, and irrigated agriculture contributes to 97% in the total net blue water abstraction13,22. Agriculture plays a key role in Iran’s economy with a contribution of 13% in the national gross domestic production, 20% in employment rate, 23% in the non-oil export, 82% in total food consumed by the residents, and 90% in total raw materials used by the food-processing factories17. In 1979, self-sufficiency in food production was implemented in the center of Iran’s food policies which promoted national self-sufficiency in terms of agricultural production, mainly for cereal production20. Nevertheless, the national self-sufficiency plan has not yet been achieved and Iran relies on other countries’ water bodies to meet its food demand20. Due to the substantial contribution of agriculture in the national water consumption, we assessed the potentials for improving crop-related blue water consumption and trade in the hopes of getting sustainable self-sufficient food security in Iran while reducing water-related challenges. In this study, we first evaluated the provincial food security levels from domestic agricultural production; the influence of current production patterns on the efficiency and sustainability of blue water consumption and VW trade. Thereafter, we tested the relationship between efficiency/suitability and self-sufficient food security levels; and suggested potentials for improving the current conditions. These potentials were extracted from agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments using different agricultural, economic, environmental, and social indicators. Results Food security and export. Table1 shows the FSp values obtained from each crop category and from all 27 crops, under ICFS and CCFS scenarios. Considering all 27 selected crops, the overall FSp value varies in the range of 11–98% and 16–100% under ICFS and CCFS scenarios, respectively. Indeed, considering crop substitution within a specific crop category increases the provincial FSp values by 1–210%. For both scenarios, the overall FSp value strongly correlates with cereal’s FSp values, where provinces with higher contributions in cereal production have higher FSp values. Irrigated agriculture has a crucial role in satisfying food security in Iran since roughly 66–100% of the overall FSp value is supplied by the irrigated crops (Table2). Under the ICFS scenario, a total of 30.0 million tons of irrigated crops are inter-provincially traded per year; cereals and sugar crops have the highest contribution in this export. Under the CCFS scenario, the interprovincial crop trade decreases 17% compared to the ICFS scenario; noticeably for cereals and fruits. Sustainability and efficiency of blue water consumption. On the annual scale, 45.5 billion m3 of blue water is consumed to produce these 27 major crops, 78% (35.5 billion m3 y−1) of which is unsustainable consumption, and 34% of which (15.5 billion m3 y−1) is inefficient consumption. Figure1 shows that cereals are major contributors in both the annual unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption (m3 y−1, 46% and 35%, respectively). However, by unit measurements of unsustainability and inefficiency (m3 ha−1) indicate that sugar crops have the highest unsustainable blue WF value (10.9 thousand m3 ha1) and that pulses have the highest inefficiency (thousand 10.0 m3 ha−1). Provincial unit unsustainable blue WF values (m3 ha−1) vary from 0.71 thousand m3 ha−1 (Esfahan) to 7.1 thousand m3 ha−1 (Yazd) in hotspot provinces depending on their cropping pattern, accessibility to different sources, and agricultural practices and water management (Fig.2). In seven provinces, blue water consumption is sustainable due to high blue water availability. There is no province in which blue water consumption is fully efficient. Unit inefficient blue WF values vary from 0.2 thousand m3 ha−1 (Kerman) to 5.3 thousand m3 ha−1 (Yazd). Sustainability and efficiency of blue VW export. Inter‑provincial sustainability of blue VW export un‑ der the ICFS and CCFS scenarios. ICFS scenario—23 out of 30 provinces have unsustainable blue VW export; accounting for 0.59 billion m3 y−1 to 1.85 billion m3 y−1 (Fig.3a). Three provinces of Fars, Khuzestan and South- 3 Vol.:(0123456789) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Khorasan, three major crop-growing areas of Iran with a contribution of 12%, 18% and 5% in the national production, have the greatest unsustainable blue VW export; accounting for 1.85, 1.61 and 1.57 billion m3 y−1, respectively. These provinces contribute the most in the inter-provincial irrigated-crop export (11%, 21% and 7%, respectively) while they are classified as severe blue water scarce regions based on the BWS index. The exported crop type from a hotspot (i.e., a region with BWS > 1) affects the absolute unsustainable blue VW export. Fars province has a lower contribution to the total inter-provincial crop export (11%) than the Khuzestan province (21%), but its contribution in total unsustainable blue VW export is larger. In the Fars province, cereals and fruits are major exports and both have higher unsustainable blue WF values compared to sugar crops (Table2), which are major exports in the Khuzestan province. South-Khorasan province, however, has a lower unsustainable blue VW export value because of its smaller contribution in the total inter-provincial crop export (7%). In sustainability assessment from the angle of blue VW export per unit of cropland (m3 ha−1), South-Khorasan is the most critical province among thirty provinces of Iran (Fig.3b). It has the highest unit unsustainable blue WF value (4.53 thousand m3 ha−1), which is 122% and 112% higher than those in the provinces of Fars and Khuzestan. This is why the BWS value in South-Khorasan (9.1) is noticeably higher than those in Khuzestan Table 1. Provincial level of self-supplied crop-related food security under ICFS and CCFS scenarios. ICFS is Individual Crop Food Security, which restricts calorie fulfillment from individual crops and CCFS is Crop Category Food Security, which promotes “eating local” by suggesting food substitution within the crop category. a For a specific crop category, a province with a food security level of 100% is entirely self-sufficient in supplying domestic demand; and could be a food exporter to provinces with deficit production. b A province could have an overall food security level of < 100%, although being food exporter for some specific crop categories. Province Self-supplied food security level (%) under ICFS scenarioaSelf-supplied food security level (%) under CCFS scenario Cereals Root and tubers Sugar crops Pulses Nuts Oil crops Vegetables Fruits All cropsbCereals Root and tubers Sugar crops Pulses Nuts Oil crops Vegetables Fruits All crops Ardebil 82 38 100 58 25 9 52 17 76 100 38 100 84 25 9 56 40 92 AzarGharbi 82 78 69 6 42 28 41 41 76 100 78 69 6 90 28 41 100 94 AzarSharghi 83 82 100 4 6 70 100 41 81 100 100 100 4 6 70 100 100 99 Bushehr 41 83 4 4 0 100 0 70 44 50 100 4 4 0 100 0 100 54 Chaharmahal 88 6 100 16 33 100 100 41 83 100 6 100 16 33 100 100 85 96 Esfahan 77 68 100 6 42 60 0 24 71 100 100 100 6 46 60 0 32 90 Fars 99 100 91 19 42 100 100 88 98 100 100 91 32 75 100 100 100 100 Ghazvin 85 69 77 12 42 100 46 41 80 100 100 77 12 51 100 46 100 97 Ghom 18 2 1 6 0 100 7 10 20 39 2 1 6 0 100 7 10 36 Guilan 24 10 8 2 0 54 100 17 26 100 10 8 2 0 54 100 17 81 Gorgan 100 67 100 100 0 0 26 18 86 100 100 100 100 0 0 26 20 87 Hamedan 82 69 100 18 42 100 100 41 80 100 69 100 37 52 100 100 100 99 Hormozgan 16 100 56 1 0 51 1 49 23 30 100 56 1 0 51 1 100 37 Ilam 88 49 4 9 2 49 10 9 75 100 49 4 9 2 49 11 9 85 Kerman 57 33 100 1 13 100 16 65 59 94 33 100 1 13 100 16 100 92 Kermanshah 82 47 15 6 42 100 39 40 75 100 47 15 6 42 100 39 72 91 Khuzestan 96 100 26 5 78 9 62 37 82 100 100 26 5 100 9 62 77 88 Kohgiluieh 83 28 1 18 10 39 76 52 67 100 28 1 23 10 39 77 100 83 Kordestan 82 29 100 6 1 100 19 37 78 100 29 100 6 1 100 19 45 92 Lorestan 86 71 100 23 26 100 100 40 84 100 100 100 23 26 100 100 47 97 Markazi 81 81 100 19 16 100 100 41 81 100 100 100 24 16 100 100 100 100 Mazandaran 42 25 26 100 1 16 32 19 39 100 25 26 100 1 16 32 100 90 NorthKhorasan 82 100 100 7 42 67 70 41 80 100 100 100 7 100 67 71 100 98 RazaviKhorasan 50 75 22 3 0 100 9 41 50 73 100 22 3 0 100 9 100 72 Semnan 81 91 100 4 42 100 100 34 80 100 100 100 6 56 100 100 100 100 Sistan 42 59 10 1 0 100 0 79 42 53 82 10 1 0 100 0 100 53 South-Khorasan 82 100 100 6 42 100 100 49 82 100 100 100 6 100 100 100 49 97 Old-Tehran 10 25 16 1 2 13 7 13 11 16 25 16 1 2 13 7 13 16 Yazd 52 64 15 1 3 100 18 45 52 76 64 15 1 3 100 18 63 72 Zanjan 86 100 100 12 40 100 100 41 85 100 100 100 12 40 100 100 100 100 4 Vol:.(1234567890) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ (3.6) and Fars (2.2). Therefore, the fraction of unsustainable blue WF value for a specific crop in South-Khorasan is larger than the same crop in Fars or Khuzestan. Hence, South-Khorasan is the most vulnerable province to environmental deterioration and agricultural drought, and crop exports from this province is not justified from an environmental point of view. CCFS scenario—the number of provinces with unsustainable blue VW export decreases from 23 to 22 provinces (Fig.3c). This one different province is Old-Tehran, which includes New-Tehran as the capital of Iran with Table 2. Total and unit irrigated-crop, blue VW export, and unsustainable blue VW export for different crop categories under the ICFS and CCFS scenarios over the study period (2005–2015). Crop category ICFS scenario CCFS scenario Crop export Blue VW export Crop export Blue VW export Total export Unit export Total export Unit export Unsustainable export Unit unsustainable export Total export Unit export Total export Unit export Unsustainable export Unit unsustainable export (106 t y−1)(t ha−1)(109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (106 t y−1)(t ha−1)(109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) Cereals 9.51 1.82 12.21 2343 6.18 1185 7.41 1.42 9.75 1872 5.19 996 Root and tuber 2.56 12.31 0.39 1891 0.21 1006 2.56 12.31 0.39 1891 0.21 1006 Sugar crops 7.77 35.36 2.12 9655 1.61 7329 7.03 32.00 1.89 8591 1.50 6844 Pulses 0.28 0.63 1.49 3352 0.66 1472 0.20 0.45 0.98 2197 0.32 721 Nuts 0.56 1.00 3.08 5543 1.83 3301 0.56 1.00 3.08 5543 1.83 3301 Oil crops 0.33 1.15 0.65 2267 0.45 1588 0.26 0.93 0.51 1776 0.36 1268 Vegetables 3.63 13.56 1.11 4141 0.74 2772 3.21 12.00 1.00 3715 0.68 2533 Fruits 5.36 7.73 5.26 7585 2.73 3942 3.60 5.19 3.87 5584 2.09 3011 All crops 30.00 3.80 26.32 3337 14.41 1828 24.84 3.15 21.47 2722 12.19 1546 Figure1. Annual total (m3 y−1) and unit (m3 ha−1) (a) sustainable/unsustainable and (b) inefficient blue WFs for different crop categories Iran over the study period (2005–2015). The unit unsustainable or inefficient blue WFs (m3 ha−1) was estimated by dividing total unsustainable or inefficient blue WFs (m3 y−1) by the area of croplands (ha) in the specific province. (i.e., The Figure is created in the environment of Microsoft Office— Excel—version 10.). 5 Vol.:(0123456789) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ the largest population and rate of urbanization, but the smallest contribution in national croplands. As expected, the New-Tehran province consumes its domestic own crop production with little left to export. No export from this province leads to zero unsustainable blue VW export value. In other provinces, the inter-provincial unsustainable blue VW export varies from 0.02 billion m3 y−1 (Esfahan) to 1.76 million m3 y−1 (Fars). Nevertheless, the hotspot provinces remain unchanged; Fars, Khuzestan and South-Khorasan. These provinces have the largest contributions in the total unsustainable blue VW exports; accounting for 1.87 billion m3 y−1, 1.69 billion m3 y−1, and 1.46 billion m3 y−1, respectively. In addition, South-Khorasan has the highest unit of unsustainable blue VW export; although its value decreased by 5.1% to 4.3 thousand m3 ha−1 compared to the one under ICFS scenario (Fig.3d). The total and unit unsustainable blue VW export, for different crop categories between ICFS and CCFS scenarios were compared over the period 2005–2015 (Table2). Under ICFS scenario, a total of 26.3 billion m3 y−1 of blue VW is interprovincially exported; 55% (14.4 billion m3 y−1) of which is unsustainable. Cereals have the highest contribution (43%), followed by fruits (19%). Such high cereal production rates are due to its dominant contribution to the national croplands and productions (see Fig.S2 in the supplementary information). However, when unit unsustainable blue VW exports (m3 ha−1) are considered, producing sugar crops, fruits and nuts become less sustainable (Table2). Figure2. Provincial unit (a) unsustainable and (b) inefficient blue water footprint (WF) per unit of cropland (m3 ha−1) over the study period (2005–2015). Per province, unit unsustainable or inefficient blue WFs was calculated by dividing the total unsustainable or inefficient blue WFs (m3 y−1) by the area of croplands (ha) in the specific province. (i.e., This Figure is created in the environment of ArcMap-GIS version 10.7). 6 Vol:.(1234567890) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Under the CCFS scenario, the total blue VW export decreases by 18% (21.5 billion m3 y−1), which in turn results in an 17% reduction in the total irrigated-crops export. Consequently, the total unsustainable blue VW export decreases by 15% (12.2 billion m3 y−1). Crop substitution in food diets also reduces crop-category-specific unsustainable blue VW export by 7% (in sugar crops) to 51% (in pulses). Similarly than in the ICFS scenario, cereals and fruits have major contributions in the overall inter-provincial unsustainable blue VW export, with 43% and 17% respectively. Unit unsustainable blue VW exports also decrease up to 51% while the critical crops remain the same as the values under the ICFS scenario. Figure3. Inter-provincial values of the total (a and c) and unit (b and d) unsustainable blue virtual water (VW) exports under ICFS (left) and CCFS (right) scenarios. The contribution of eight crop categories in the total irrigated crop export and total unsustainable blue VW export are reported in top-three hotspots of—Fars, Khuzestan, and South-Khorasan provinces. Per province, unit unsustainable blue VW exports (m3 ha−1) were estimated by dividing the total unsustainable blue VW export (m3 y−1) by the area of croplands (ha) in the specific province. (i.e., This Figure is created in the environment of ArcMap-GIS version 10.7). 7 Vol.:(0123456789) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Inter‑provincial efficiency of blue VW export under the ICFS and CCFS scenarios. Under the ICFS scenario, except for Old-Tehran, the contribution of provinces to inefficient export varies from 0.18 billion m3 y−1 (Bushehr) to 0.92 billion m3 y−1 (Fars), as presented in Fig.4. Three provinces of Fars, East-Azarbaijan, and SouthKhorasan have the largest inefficient blue VW exports (11%, 9% and 8% respectively). In Fars and East-Azerbaijan provinces cereals are major contributors, while in South-Khorasan sugar crops are. The total irrigated-crop export from East-Azerbaijan (1.6 million t y−1) is 28% less than in the South-Khorasan province (2.2 million t y−1); however, its higher contribution in inefficient blue VW export is due to the export of cereals and fruits, both of which have higher inefficient blue WF values (m3 t−1) compared to sugar crops in South-Khorasan. Regarding unit inefficient blue VW export, the values (m3 ha−1) in Yazd, Homozgan, and Sistan are critical, as these provinces export larger rates of inefficient blue water (3451 m3 ha−1, 3056 m3 ha−1, and 2460 m3 ha−1, respectively). Under the CCFS scenario, the inter-provincial inefficient blue VW export value is reduced from 0.01 million m3 y−1 (Bushehr, 0.1%) to 371 million m3 y−1 (Razavi-Khorasan, 69%). Hotspot provinces remain unchanged. The unit inefficient blue VW export decreases by 0.1–75% in different provinces compared to those under the ICFS scenario. The total and unit inefficient blue VW export, for different crop categories between ICFS and CCFS scenarios were compared over the period 2005–2015 (Table3). Under ICFS scenario, a total of 8.45 billion m3 y−1 of inefficient blue VW is inter-provincially exported (32% of total), 43% of which occurred from cereal lands and 24% from fruit lands. By the unit inefficient blue VW export is expressed in terms of m3 ha−1, where sugarand fruit crops have the highest inefficient blue VW export. Under CCFS scenario, the total inefficient blue VW export decreases by 19% to 6.86 billion m3 y−1. This reduction is, in turn, caused by 8% (for vegetables) to 37% (for pulses) reductions in crop-category-specific inter-provincial inefficient blue VW exports. Nevertheless, Cereals and fruits still have the highest contributions (43% and 21% respectively). In addition, critical crops regarding their unit inefficient blue VW export value (m3 ha−1) stay the same, as verifiable in the ICFS scenario. Discussion The sustainability and efficiency of crop production and VW trades under two food security scenarios of ICFS and CCFS were evaluated. Our results show that eating locally by adopting crop substitutions in food diets under the CCFS scenario improves the FSp value up to 210% compared to the ICFS scenario; this leads to an 17% reduction in the inter-provincial crop trade (Table1). Under the CCFS scenario, localized food marketing will be structured more efficiently; which helps farmers economically prosper. When farmers establish their own farm businesses, there is no need to split their incomes with the provincial trade brokers; hence consumers can additionally receive cheaper foods. On the other hand, food availability and accessibility may increase under CCFS scenario when inter-provincial food trade is not feasible. The distance between the trading partners is always a restriction to bilateral trades. Such a barrier could become more severe during circumstances such as the COVID19 pandemic. Indeed, inter-provincial crop trades increase the resilience in handling local shock (i.e., such as drought or the other natural or unnatural hazards which cause agricultural losses), but simultaneously increase the vulnerability to market shocks. Therefore, small-scale farming and local market improvements could serve as tools for reducing food dependency and valuing individual food producers23. At the same time, all provinces can contribute incrementally to local food production by promoting strategies, such as improving crop/water productivities, reducing food losses, and/or changing local food diets in order to increase local food availability. Simultaneously, the environment benefits from local eating since inter-provincial food transportation is decreased under the CCFS scenario (Table2), for instance, by reducing energy consumption and transportationrelated GHG emissions24. Furthermore, less food transportation is associated with less food losses25,26. Food loss through transportation is translated into eco-environmental resource losses including water, energy and capital losses. Reduced inter-provincial food trade under the CCFS scenario results in a 16% reduction in unsustainable and a 19% reduction in inefficient inter-provincial blue VW export value (Tables2 and 3). Indeed, the CCFS scenario lessens the pressure of in-need provinces on the exporting regions, in particular in hotspot provinces. An elimination of this pressure allows decision makers to use finite local resources more sustainably and efficiently in order to prioritize their own local demand in a sustainable manner. Adverse impacts of food trades have been fostering movements towards increasing local food supply provisions, even at a global scale27,28, calling for a power shift from large agricultural companies and global markets to local actors that can lead to a more sustainable crop production23. Furthermore, it has been acknowledged that, ensuring the sustainability and stability of food security requires a broader assessment that is not restricted to technical aspects and includes economic, social and environmental factors. Hence, we tested the relationship between different agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators and FSP values (Fig.5). Environmental indicators have various effects on the local FSp values. While FSp values positively correlate with per capita blue water availability (m3 cap−1) (Fig.5i), they respond adversely to any increase in water availability per unit of cropland (m3 ha−1) (Fig.5i). In regions with higher blue water availability per unit of cropland, the contribution of cereal production (dominant crops in Iranian’ food basket) into the total production is lower; which in turn results in lower FSp values.. This explains why farmers in these regions are in favor of cash crops (e.g. fruits) rather than staple crops. This finding is in line with the correlation between FSp values and BWS values (Fig.5i); water-scarce provinces contribute more in staple crop production and have the highest FSp values. The cultivation of water-intensive crops in hotspots intensifies environmental deterioration rates and threatens sustainable agriculture. Consequently, long-term food security plans necessitate an urgent revision in the cropping 8 Vol:.(1234567890) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ pattern in these regions. Effective policies need to be implemented to bridge the gap between provincial food demands and supplies while considering environmental protection. In addition, Fig.5 shows that reducing the portion of inefficient blue water consumption helps improve FSp. Several researchers demonstrated the positive effects of crop redistribution on efficient water consumption9,29 Figure4. Inter-provincial values of the total (a and c) and unit (b and d) inefficient blue virtual water (VW) exports under ICFS (left) and CCFS (right) scenarios. The contribution of eight crop categories in the total irrigated crop export and total inefficient blue VW export are reported in top-three hotspots of Fars, Khuzestan, and South-Khorasan provinces. Per province, unit inefficient blue VW exports (m3 ha−1) were estimated by dividing the total unsustainable blue VW export (m3 y−1) by the area of croplands (ha) in the specific province. (i.e., This Figure is created in the environment of ArcMap-GIS version 10.7). 9 Vol.:(0123456789) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ besides other resilient agricultural practices30,31. Under the condition of climate change, implementing climateresilient pathways in the agricultural sector is a necessity in attaining food security31. However, the effectiveness of these strategies differs per crop and per region, and should be fully investigated before implementation. Agricultural indicators correlate well with the FSp values. The FSp value increases in response to a heightened availability of croplands (Fig.5ii), particularly in irrigated croplands (Fig.5). Over the study period 2005–2015, 59–100% of the overall FSp value is fulfilled by irrigated production (Table1), which highlights the vital role of irrigated agriculture in food production in Iran. Smart long-term decisions in both irrigated and rainfed farming improves crop production per capita and smoothens the path for FSp values. Ownership over farmland also has a positive correlation to food security at a provincial scale (Fig.5). In Iran, small-scale farmers mainly cultivate staple crops for a higher contribution in their food baskets. Whereas, largescale farms mostly produce cash crops with a higher unit value ($ t−1) and a smaller contribution in Iranian’s Table 3. Total and unit inefficient blue VW export for different crop categories under the ICFS and CCFS scenarios over the study period (2005–2015). Crop category ICFS scenario CCFS scenario Inefficient blue VW export Unit inefficient blue VW export Inefficient blue VW export Unit inefficient blue VW export (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) Cereals 3.60 691 2.96 568 Root and tuber 0.13 611 0.13 611 Sugar crops 0.58 2653 0.50 2263 Pulses 0.53 1198 0.34 761 Nuts 0.91 1633 0.91 1633 Oil crops 0.32 1121 0.26 915 Vegetables 0.39 1451 0.36 1336 Fruits 1.99 2868 1.42 2042 All crops 8.45 1071 6.86 870 Figure5. The correlations between self-supplied provincial food security and the selected (i) environmental, (ii) agricultural, (iii) economic, and (iv) social indicators. (i.e., The Figure is created in the environment of Microsoft Office—Excel—version 10.). 16 Vol:.(1234567890) Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:15022 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93928-9 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. 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