Coping with Disasters and Climate Extremes - Challenges & Cooperation Potential. Research Contributions to the 2013 DAAD Alumni Summer School

Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Alexander Fekete, Christiane Grinda, Alex Lechleuthner, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, Celia Norf, Ulf Schremmer Coping with Disasters and Climate Extremes - Challenges & Cooperation Potential Research Contributions to the 2013 DAAD Alumni Summer School Edited by Celia Norf, Christiane Grinda, Tobias Blätgen & Alexander Fekete 2 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 This document is published within the series 'Integrative Risk and Security Research'. All publications can be downloaded from http://opus.bszbw.de/fhk/doku/publizierte_Schriftenreihen.php. Despite thorough revision the information provided in this document is supplied without liability. The document does not necessarily present the opinion of the editors. EDITION NOTICE Editors of Series Alexander Fekete (Prof. Dr.-Ing.) Christiane Grinda (Dipl.-Geogr.) Alex Lechleuthner (Prof. Dr. med. Dr. rer. nat.) Ompe Aimé Mudimu (Prof. Dr.-Ing.) Celia Norf (M. Sc.) Ulf Schremmer (Prof. Dr.-Ing.) Cologne University of Applied Sciences Institute of Rescue Engineering and Civil Protection Betzdorfer Str. 2 50679 Cologne Germany www.irg.fh-koeln.de Editorship of Series - contact: [email protected] Editors of this Volume Celia Norf (M. Sc.) Christiane Grinda (Dipl.-Geogr.) Tobias Blätgen (Dipl.-Geogr.) Alexander Fekete (Prof. Dr.-Ing.) Contact Celia Norf Email: [email protected] Phone: + 49 (0) 221 8275 2739 Web: http://riskncrisis.wordpress.com Recommended Citation Surname, First Name (Year of Publication): Title. Title of Chapter. In: Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) Coping with Disasters and Climate Extremes – Challenges & Cooperation Potential. Research Contributions to DAAD Alumni Summer School 2013. Integrative Risk and Security Research, 1/2014. Page Reference. Cologne, November 2014 2 3 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Foreword Based on experiences with recent droughts, earthquakes, floods and tsunamis, the 2013 DAAD Alumni Summer School conceived effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaption (CCA) as interdisciplinary tasks for social and natural sciences. For accomplishing cross-cultural, cross-disciplinary and cross-institutional learning the organizing institutions, the Cologne University of Applied Sciences (CUAS) and the United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) invited 20 Alumni from 17 different countries but also from different research and practical backgrounds to Bonn and Cologne in November 2013. We thank DAAD for the funding opportunities, untiring administrative support and invitation to the alumni network and webinar platform. We also thank Prof. Dr. Lars Ribbe and Dr. Udo Nehren from the Cologne University of Applied Sciences - Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT) and Prof. Dr. Jakob Rhyner, Dr. Jörn Birkmann, Dr. Matthias Garschagen and Dr. Jörg Szarzynski from the United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for their continuous scientific input before, during and after the seminar. At Cologne University of Applied Sciences we would also like to express our gratitude for enabling such research and seminars to the president, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Seeßelberg, the International Office, Dr. Elisabeth Holuscha, and, last but never least, the team of students that helped us prepare the event. We especially thank all participants of this Summer School for making this seminar a fruitful and inspiring experience and look forward to future collaboration. This first volume of a novel series on “Integrative Risk and Security Research” is one cornerstone of documenting and thereby sharing some of the research conducted in the context of our 2013 seminar. At the same time, we aim at continuing this excellent starting point in further joint research and networking. The character of this series aims at addressing research that is ‘integrative’ in the sense of what is currently termed ‘holistic’ risk management or risk governance research, but also in what is coined ‘interand transdisciplinary’ research. This also integrates natural and man-made types of hazards as well as a perspective on impacts on humans, ecoand social systems, infrastructure and other sectors and organization types. Much of the work we present will be ‘work in progress’ that invites comments from the reader and shall serve as a stimulus for advancement of the work presented here, but also offer opportunities for further joint authorships. 3 4 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Bridging the Missing Gap: People Centred Policy Guidelines to Minimize Relocation Failures: Case of Sri Lanka Nishara Fernando ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Potential of Eco-project and Green Architecture to Achieve a Sustainable Urban development. The Case of Córdoba, Argentina Agustin Miranda. ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in Shanghai: Coping with Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction Pan Tao ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Discussing the Aftermath of Two Disasters in Chile: The Question of Scale Vicente Sandoval ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Societal Dealings with Cyclone in Bangladesh Bishawjit Mallick ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Increasing Hazards – Increasing Policies – Increasing Usage of Resilience? Survey amongst the Participants of the 2013 DAAD Alumni Summer School Alexander Fekete, Christiane Grinda & Celia Norf .......................................................................................................................... 38 Open Research Questions within the Scope of Disaster, Risk and Crisis Management in the Context of Coping with Disasters and Climate Extremes Alexander Fekete ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 42 4 5 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Introduction In facing recent natural and man-made disasters Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaption (CCA) calls for integrative thinking and learning across cultures, disciplines and institutions. In times of increasing complexity, insecurity and uncertainty thinking outside the box becomes essential. This first volume of “Integrative Risk and Security Research” invites the reader to look beyond common perspectives of DRR and CCA and relates climate change and natural disasters with interdisciplinary and bottom-up policy making. Nishara Fernando bridges this gap in common relocation strategies and presents a people centred policy guideline that mitigates past relocation failures in Sri Lanka. Agustin Miranda analyses cities as ecosystems that need balance to survive and evaluates the potential of eco-projects and green architecture to achieve a sustainable urban development in the Argentinian city Córdoba. Pan Tao looks at climate change impacts Shanghai faces and its strategies to adapt. He underlines that Shanghai city should integrate an adaptation strategy into its urban development strategy and thus taking the chance to shape the next generation of the city. Vicente Sandoval analyses different discourses on scale for the interpretation of the social production and reproduction of risk within and through different geographical scales. He explores general implications involved in the aftermath of two disasters in Chile, the Chaitén volcano eruption in 2008 and the Maule earthquake in February 2010. Bishawjit Mallick uses the results of an empirical study conducted at southwest coastal Bangladesh during 2009 and 2010. It underlines the importance of disaster preparedness planning as a holistic approach that includes individual vulnerability monitoring based on the cultural, socio-economic, political and environmental context of those affected. Alexander Fekete, Christiane Grinda and Celia Norf present a survey on resilience as a recent research and policy agenda in context to climate change related hazards and adaptation policies in different countries. Lastly Alexander Fekete presents a collection of certain aspects and open questions in risk management and risk governance science dealing with natural and man-made risks, including climate change with special focus of the sustainability and evaluation of research and development projects and implementations. 5 6 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Bridging the Missing Gap: People Centred Policy Guidelines to Minimize Relocation Failures: Case of Sri Lanka Nishara Fernando Email: [email protected] Introduction Acquisition of peoples’ homes and lands for private and public development projects (high ways, dams and reservoirs, ports, roads and urban renewal etc.) or as a strategy to reduce people’s exposure to natural hazards (floods, earth slips) or disasters (tsunami) displace people. Although the relocation of such displaced people into unfamiliar new settlements situated far from their previous place of residence without their consent seemed to be the sole option at the given time and circumstances, such interventions have not been very successful in Sri Lanka (Muggah 2008). It is mainly due to increased impoverishment of families after relocation as they were mainly unsuccessful in coping with multiple risks (Cernea 2000) (landlessness, homelessness, joblessness, food insecurity, marginalization, increased morbidity, mortality, food insecurity, lack of access to common property resources and disruption to existing social capital) and multi-dimensional stresses (physiological, psychological and social-cultural) generated as a result of “relocation shock” that may continue through the different stages of relocation (prior to, immediately after and two years after) (Scudder 1981, 2005). In addition, relocation impacts on the cultural landscape and the identity of communities (Sorensen, 1996). In this context, the available international and local literature on involuntary (forced) relocation emphasizes the need to reduce various relocation related risks and stresses (from landlessness to land base relocation, from joblessness to re-employment, from homelessness to reconstruction, from marginalization to social inclusion, from loss of access to restoration of community assets and services, from social disarticulation to networks and community building) (Oliver-Smith 2009, 2010; Modi 2009). In the planning stage, careful implementation and management of relocation processes by adhering to the national and international frameworks and policies, better funding, political will, pre-displacement research and long term monitoring are interrelated vital factors to make relocated communities secure and sustainable after involuntary (forced) relocation (Fernando 2012; Fernando & Punchihewa 2013; Fernando et al. 2010; Hettige et al. 2004; Birkmann & Fernando, 2007; Birkmann et al. 2007). These factors will assist the relocated people to at least reconstruct the social, economic and cultural lives in the new location by not only providing adequate protection from relocation related risks but also through opening up a wide range of new opportunities. An ideal program would not forcibly relocate any community by uprooting them from their residence of origin for any reason/s. However, in reality involuntary relocation becomes inevitable owing to unavoidable circumstances under justifiable grounds. In this context, it is vitally important to identify ways of minimizing stresses and risky situations that could emerge as a result of involuntary (forced) relocation that make the prospective beneficiaries insecure and vulnerable of becoming affected by poverty or chronic poverty (Fernando 2012; Fernando 2006). Against the above backdrop, this article makes an attempt to propose some guidelines for involuntary relocation which include the role of three stakeholders, namely the state, the development partners and the displaced people or the beneficiaries. The Sri Lankan past experience shows that relocation projects have not been guided by common guidelines other than project specific guidelines which resulted in some successes and failures. These outcomes, no doubt, stress the need for having proper guidelines. The guidelines 6 7 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 discussed in this article make an attempt to address the emerging need to have proper guidelines on the one hand and to minimize the widening gap at policy level on the other. The author intends to publish these guidelines not only in English language but also in Sinhala and Tamil languages as well with the intention of addressing a wider range of audience including planners, policy makers, implementers, politicians, academia, students, donors, displaced people, relocatees and most importantly the general public of the country. Accordingly this would be able to raise awareness on the relocation process while proposing a sustainable program for the relocation and a planned process of relocation of affected communities. Published and unpublished documents have been refereed in addition to the interviews conducted with various officials of government, semi government, non-government organizations and researchers to construct the guidelines. The draft guidelines were further reviewed by some experts in the relevant field and their comments have also been incorporated while constructing the final guidelines. The proposed guidelines are generally applicable for people who are displaced as a result of development need or disasters induced by political decisions which regulate and govern forceful eviction. Therefore, a detailed resettlement action plan is necessary to facilitate the number of families displaced and relocated. This should be tailored to suit the local requirements under circumstances of social justice. These guidelines should be applied at inception of the planning stage of the relocation process. The proposed guidelines are presented in three stages of the relocation process namely, prior to displacement (Pre-relocation), immediately after relocation and two years after relocation. Objectives of the policy guidelines 1. To devise a mechanism that would enable the communities to successfully cope with various risks and stresses generated as a result of the shock of involuntary relocation and the relocation process. 2. To make the prospective relocatees aware of the relocation process (or stages of relocation) with a time frame agreed upon to complete the successful relocation process by affected persons and implementing agencies. 3. To make the relocation process to be participatory, transparent and accountable. 4. To assist particularly the most vulnerable groups (female headed households, hidden female headed households, households with disabled, chronically ill members, poor households) to be successfully adapted to the new location, restore their livelihoods in order to improve their living standards. The program should ensure that the displaced people improve or at least restore their previous standard of living (Cernea 2000). 5. To ensure the people affected due to involuntary relocation programs to be promptly compensated. Also raise awareness among the people about the process for redressing their grievances to facilitate easy access and quick response to resolve issues. The conceptual foundations of the identified guidelines The main conceptual foundations for the guidelines identified as: the concept of forced relocation, including two theoretical models, namely (1) Thayer Scudder’s (1981, 2005) Stress and Settlement Process and (2) Michael Cernea’s (2000) Impoverishment Risks and Reconstruction Model, for resettling displaced people and the concept of vulnerability focusing both on the external (exposure) and the internal sides (coping). The elements of the constructed analytical framework are discussed below. 7 8 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 In an attempt to explain the analytical framework in Figure 1, it is appropriate to begin with a discussion of the external shocks. This is in two forms (1) natural or manmade disasters or development projects destroyed various common properties at the regional level (roads, railways, schools, hospitals, etc.) on one hand and destroyed lives and various types of assets at the household level; (2) the forced relocation of affected communities into new settlements, mainly in a location far from their previous place of residence. As a result of forced relocation, the displaced people do not have any option other than settling in the given new settlements outside the original place of residence. Those forcedly relocated people are exposed to various risks and stresses, which are further discussed under the context (difficulty in accessing the common property resources (sea, city etc.) to earn an income, lack of employment opportunities in new settlement areas, lacks of proper infrastructure, poor-quality of housing and fragmented relationships with the host community, which sometimes even lead to physical conflicts). In this context, forced relocation is believed to have directly impacted on five types of household assets (social, financial, human, physical and natural) which are vital to employ successful livelihood strategies (enhancement and coping) to secure household livelihoods. External intervention, here refers to direct (allocation of government land to build settlements or to give financial support to construct houses, buy land, give food rations and money to buy kitchen utensils, construction of common services, etc.) and indirect (request private banks to give low-interest loans to start new income-earning activities, provide tax concessions for private organizations as a tool to encourage them to become involved in settlement construction, etc.), involvement of national government, provincial and local authorities adopting various policies, legislation and institutions to strengthen the household-asset base as well as access to them. This is in addition to various types of assistance from international and national NGOs and from other private organizations to help strengthen the household-asset base and assist with the relocation process. The assistance was mainly in the form of constructing houses and donating furniture, household electrical equipment and other capital equipment (fishing boats, nets, out-boat and inboat engines, bicycles etc.) to help improve the existing income-earning activities, or to start new forms of income generating activities. The final outcome of the various household-level strategies employed, as opposed to various forced relocation-related risks and stresses could be that the household becomes either more secure or more vulnerable. This, in turn, would be a direct feedback for households and for government, other international non-governmental organizations (INGOs)/NGOs and private organizations in relation to their external interventions. However, the purpose of the guidelines is to provide proper strategy to minimize various risks and stresses face by relocatees in the relocation process (pre-relocation, immediately after relocation and two years after) and make them secure. 8 9 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Figure 1: Analytical Framework Source: Fernando 2013 Guidelines As it is mentioned above, the policy guidelines can be systemized under prior to relocation, immediately after relocation and two years after relocation. Prior to relocation The prerelocation phase needs to concentrate on the aspects of removing or minimizing the risks leading to displacement. Considering the fact that displacements by disasters, either man-made or natural and developmentinduced are unavoidable in certain cases, preplanning of contingencies for relocation should be available which would contribute to minimizing adverse impacts on the social, cultural and economic aspects of prospective relocatees. Vulnerability reduction and early warning It is vital to minimize the number of families going to be relocated by avoiding or minimizing the adverse impacts of causes of displacement, through developing proper early warning systems or any other vulnerability reduction strategies to prevent natural hazard related displacement and relocation. •Well-conceived evacuation plans and programs should be in place •Efficient process should be evolved in pertaining to utilizing local resources to manage displacement and temporary internal migration. 9 16 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 The urban development spawned by such low-density growth has been substituted, to a certain extent, by new urban proposals and projects that put forward the value of nature in the city and which try to create spaces that promote social interaction in the centre of the city or nearby. The aim is to incorporate nature to all those urban areas capable of preserving it, creating “eco-barrios” or “eco-villas” that include green roofs, natural draining systems and porous surfaces in parking lots and walkways. In simple terms, such developments allow nature to participate in urban infrastructure. The green roof system deserves a special comment. Some of its main advantages are: •Flood control •The cooling of buildings in the summer and the increase in humidity •The absorption of air pollution and noise •Biodiversity control •Aesthetic appraisal •Leisure / free time opportunities •(Project "BedZED in London", Frith 2004) Moreover, in a green roof, the photosynthesis of plants transfers’ solar energy in bio-molecules, releasing Oxygen and water steam; the leaves retain the suspending air particles and offer shadow; the roots make a rain-water filtration system that prevents ground erosion and sedimentation (IGRA 2009). Green roofs are devices of urban intervention that make possible the permanent and sustainable design and re-design of cities. They assure harmony between urban environment and the surrounding landscape through the design of the fifth façade. Final comments In a broad sense, we can assert that it is necessary to spread awareness that nature plays an essential role in human development, through both formal and non–formal education, and that all changes put through education must be guided to stimulate participation and commitment of every actor involved. Within this framework of integration, we should acknowledge that the city is the environment of human beings, regardless of size and population. Therefore, it is not possible to develop sustainably without proper planning for the city, nor can there be sustainable development with disrespect for environment, the use of renewable resources and the conservation of other species. This reflects the need to relate and integrate the conservation of nature and urban development. The incorporation of nature to urban planning and to architecture must try to satisfy the needs of inhabitants compromising neither development possibilities nor resources for future generations. We strive to obtain constant balance and harmony between urban spaces and natural spaces, a symbiosis between built environment and natural environment. Bibliography Municipality of Córdoba - Secretary of Environment, 2014. Available from: http://www.cordoba.gov.ar/cordobaciudad/principal2/default.asp?ir=51 [15 January 2014]. International Green Roof Association, 2009. Available from: http://www.igra-world.com/benefits/public_benefits.php [15 January 2014]. Antequera, J 2005, El potencial de sostenibilidad de los asentamientos humanos. Available from: www.eumed.net/libros/2005/ja-sost/ [15 January 2014]. Leff, E 2005, ‘La geopolítica de la biodiversidad y el desarrollo sustentable. Economización del mundo, racionalidad ambiental y reapropiación social de la naturaleza’, Observatorio Social de América Latina, 16 17 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 vol. 6, no. 17. Available from: http://bibliotecavirtual.clacso.org.ar/ar/libros/osal/osal17/dleff.pdf [15 January 2014]. Vogt, J 2008a, 'Stadtparks als Abbild gesellschaftlicher Entwicklungen‘ in Nachhaltige Stadtparks - Konzept und Praxisbeispiele, eds G Lein-Kottmeier, A Ostmann, A. & J Vogt, RWFV, Karlsruhe, pp. 14-17. Vogt, J 2008b, 'Funktionen des Nachhaltigen Stadtparks in der Stadtentwicklung‘ in Nachhaltige Stadtparks - Konzept und Praxisbeispiele, eds G Lein-Kottmeier, A Ostmann, A. & J Vogt, RWFV, Karlsruhe, pp. 136138. Lein-Kottmeier, G 2008, 'Das Leitbild der Nachhaltigkeit‘ in Nachhaltige Stadtparks - Konzept und Praxisbeispiele, eds G Lein-Kottmeier, A Ostmann, A. & J Vogt, RWFV, Karlsruhe, pp. 24-28. Timmermans, W 2001, Wildlife in the City. Urbanisation as an instrument for wildlife policy?, Aeneas, Best. Frith, M 2004, ‘Conservando la naturaleza en la ciudad: Biodiversidad urbana y desarrollo sostenible’ in Foro para un Zorrozaure Sostenible, pp. 164-173. Project BedZED n.d. Available from http://www.zedfactory.com/zedfactory_portafolio_1.pdf [15 January 2014]. 17 18 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in Shanghai: Coping with Urbanization and Disaster Risk Reduction Pan Tao Email: [email protected] Abstract As a coastal megacity, Shanghai is vulnerable when facing climate disruptions. Since 1990s, Shanghai’s temperature has dramatically increased with a rate of 0.5°C/10a, which is 6.7 times higher than the global rate. Urbanization has been a major contributor to Shanghai’s climate change. Although Shanghai city has drawn its climate adaptation strategies in its 5-year plan, climate adaptation work in Shanghai is still in its early stage. This paper summarized climate change facts and impacts on the city, and its adaptation strategies. The paper further suggests Shanghai city should integrate an adaptation strategy into its urban development strategy, which shapes the next generation of the city. Introduction Shanghai is the largest city in China, located in the eastern coastal plain at an average altitude of 4.0m N.N. The city population is 23 million, having a high density of 16,800 person/ km² in the urban area. Shanghai has a humid subtropical climate and experiences four distinct seasons. The annual precipitation is approximately 1,100 mm which is not evenly distributed. Three days of rainstorms could contribute 25% of the total annual precipitation (Fang et al. 2012). Summers are hot and humid, with an average of 8.7 days exceeding 35 °C and the hottest temperature was ever recorded at 40.8 °C on August 7, 2013 (Shanghai Meteorology Service Center 2013). The impact of human activities on local climate has been particularly prominent in the last three decades of fast urbanization and industrialization. Heat waves, intensified storms, invasion of salty sea water have threatened the city. For instance, it was estimated that inner-city flood is causing approximately 1 billion RMB ($160 million USD) annual loss to the city (Chen et al. 2008). More than flood damage, the other hazards damage including heat, drought, etc., could further lift up the overall cost. Therefore, in the year 2012, Shanghai city government released a 5-year plan (2011-2015) on Energy Conservation and Climate Change, which includes climate change adaptation strategies at the first time. Climate change facts in Shanghai Rainfall According to the data from the national weather station, the annual precipitation in Shanghai increased with a rate of 7.0mm/10a (Eastern China Meteorological Center 2012) and the annual precipitation days decreased with a rate of 3d/10a (Fang et al. 2012). Considering less rainy days with higher quantities of precipitation, the intensity of storm events was obviously increasing over the past 30 years. Temperature Between the year 1873, the first meteorological record year in Shanghai, and the recent year 2007, Shanghai’s average temperature has increased with a rate of 1.39°C/100a. Until 1980s, the temperature increasing rate had been similar to the global trend. However, since the 1990s when Shanghai was accelerating its urbanization process by opening up the development of Pudong district, the temperature has dramatically increased with a rate of 0.5°C/10a, which is 6.7 times higher than the global rate (Figure 1 18 19 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 and 2). In 2013, there have been 33 days exceeding 35°C, breaking the 100-year record (Shanghai Meteorology Service Center 2013). The heat-island effect has been clearly observed. The temperature increase in the urban area is 2.5 times higher than that in suburban area (Eastern China Meteorological Center 2012). Urbanization has been a major contributor to the local climate change. Figure 1: Comparison of temperature change between Shanghai city and global land since year 1873 Adapted from Eastern China Meteorological Center 2012 Figure2: Shanghai urbanization process since year 1961 Adapted from Wang & Wang 2010 Climate Change Impacts Sea level rise The observation data showed that Shanghai average coastal sea level has risen 115mm since 1978 (Wang & Zheng 2013). And the sea level rising rate is 4.7 mm/a, much higher than other coastal regions in China. In 2000, severe typhoons which hit China´s eastern coast caused damage of 11.2 billion RMB (ca. $1.7 billion USD) (Wang & Zheng 2013). The Shanghai flood wall was designed for prevention of 1000-year sea tide at 5.86m. If sea level rises by 50 cm, the 1000-year tide will be at 6.36m, which will not only damage the coastal flood facilities but also decrease the inner-city drainage capacity by 20% (Wang & Wang 2010). Another negative effect is saltwater intrusion. If the sea level rises up 50 cm, sea water will be pushed to upstream by 5.5 km and then the security of water supply won’t be assured. 19 20 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Increase in energy consumption Under the double effects of global warming and the heat-island effect, Shanghai has experienced continued high temperature days in the recent summers. The air-conditioning uses 35% of the total electricity load. The statistics showed that every centigrade increase of peak temperature will result in 377 MW increase of electricity load (Wang & Zheng 2013). If average temperature increases by 1°C, it results in an additional 23 billion kWh energy consumption annually. Agriculture production Shanghai’s frost free period has increased from 248 days to 282 days (Eastern China Meteorological Center 2012), which is somehow good for the growth of winter crops. However, the increase of humidity and warming will also increase the activity level of pests and viruses, which cause problems to the crops along the year. Public health Longer and higher temperature days will increase mortality rate. Heat waves have complicated air pollution problems. Certain warm climate diseases such as Malaria and Schistosomiasis have now higher possibilities to be epidemical in Shanghai region (Wang & Zheng 2013). Critical infrastructures Extreme weather events can disrupt or destroy the critical infrastructures in many ways. Quantitative studies are urgently needed for policy makers to understand the consequences linked to climate disruption. Strategy for climate adaptation In the Shanghai’s 12th Five Year Plan on Energy Conservation and Climate Change (Shanghai city 2012), climate change adaptation has been linked closely to disaster risk reduction (DRR). A short term goal of this plan by year 2015 is to build capacity in adaptation and DRR. The key measures are summarized as follows: •Establish an efficient DRR system: Categorize hazards levels in different color in order to alarm general public with a distinguished warning sign. Each category of hazards has clearly defined countermeasures. Disaster emergency shelters will be planned according to population density across the city. An early warning system will be installed across city departments. •Improve weather forecast services: For instance, when the highest (red) category storm is forecasted, the instant information will be officially disseminated to public through all the media channels including social media. Companies should allow employees staying at home with full salary. •Upgrade infrastructure standards: According to the climate change impact assessment, adjust the security standards of critical infrastructures such as electricity supply, water supply, drainage, gas, heating and telecommunication, etc. •Increase capacity of drainage systems in the important flooding control areas. Strengthen adaptation capacity in coastal areas. Set tidemarks in sensitive areas. Establish DRR scheme including ecological measures. Suggestion As a coastal megacity, Shanghai is vulnerable when facing climate disruptions. Climate change has long term impacts on city infrastructures and people’s living. Climate change adaptation work in Shanghai is still in its 20 21 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 early stage. When its current 5-year plan is being implemented by 2015, the policy makers should have clearer pictures on how to make the city more resilient. Since urbanization is a major contributor for local climate change, this paper suggests Shanghai city should integrate an adaptation strategy into its urban development strategy, which shapes the next generation of the city. Bibliography Fang, GL. et al. 2012, ‘Analysis of precipitation change and the characteristics of disaster rainfalls in Shanghai’, Journal of Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, vol. 21, no. 10. Shanghai Meteorological Service Center, 2013. Available from http://www.soweather.com/html/e77f9935c29e-402b-894e-225eb91175c5/infodetail/11bfdc7d-c6fe-4fa2-b15c-23d8239e6367.html [28 January 2014] Eastern China Meteorological Center 2012, Assessment report of Climate Change in East China, China Meteorological Press, Beijing. Chen, ZL. et al. 2008, ‘Characteristics of main natural disasters and coping strategies in Shanghai’, Journal of East China Normal University, vol. 5, pp. 116-125. Wang, XR & Wang, Y 2010, Global climate change and vulnerability assessment of estuary city-A case study of Shanghai, Science Press, Beijing. Wang, WG & Zheng, GG. 2013, Green book of Climate Change: Annual report on actions to address Climate Change, Social Science Academic Press, Beijing. Shanghai City Government 2012, 12th 5-year plan on energy conservation and climate change. 21 22 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Discussing the Aftermath of Two Disasters in Chile: The Question of Scale Vicente Sandoval Email: [email protected] Introduction This essay emerges as personal outcome from the reflections and insights during the DAAD Alumni Summer School 2013 “Coping with Disasters and Climate Extremes” held in Cologne and Bonn, Germany. Both the combination of international experts during the summer school and the progress of my own PhD’s dissertation encouraged me to develop this essay. In practical terms, this essay aims to analyse different discourses on scale in order to use them as lens to interpret the social production and reproduction of risk within and through different geographical scales. In order to tackle this issue, this essay explores general implications involved in the aftermath of two disasters in Chile: the Chaitén volcano eruption in 2008 and the Maule earthquake in February 2010. In this regards, this essay questions: what possible linkages emerge between the discourse on the social production of risk and the question of scale? In so doing, the essay adopts a vulnerability approach to address the production of risk as socially constructed concept –based mainly on works from Ben Wisner et al. (2004), Omar D. Cardona (2006) and Camillo Boano and Ragnhild Lund (2011). Likewise, the essay will discuss two main discourses on scale – from geographers to global-city theorists – meanwhile by the end of the essay, it contrasts general views of the aftermath of these two disasters in Chile. On addressing the analysis of scale, the main source will emerge from literature review and the use of discourse analysis methods, mainly on books and journal articles. As result of this analysis, a theoretical framework will be set up in order to approach the question of scale within post-disaster context by analysing the aftermath of disasters in Chile. In addition, the review of recovery and reconstruction processes will be mainly through exploring journal articles as well as archival records produced by authorities but also by NGO’s; reports, statistics, informs, among others. Moreover, media archives will provide a valuable material in the case of Chaitén. The question of scale The starting point for analysing the question of scale lies on the tension between the so-called ‘traditional’ and ‘critical’ perspectives. The early works of Neil Brenner during 1990’s and then in 2000’s provide a historical standpoint of the emergence of critical perspectives against the traditional views on geographical scale. Brenner (1998) starts his analysis under the assumption that during many years most of social researchers have neglected the question of scale, specially under the 1980´s and 1990´s rounds of globalization and capitalism restructuring. “[T]he problematic of [geographical] scale and its social production was still generally subordinated to analyses of spatial practices within fixed geographical scales: the local, the urban, the regional, the national and/or the global” (Brenner 1998, pp. 459). On the other hand, Montello (2001) argues that geographical scale is indisputably about size, “either relative or absolute”. Montello summarizes three meanings of scale given by geographers based on the work of 22 23 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Hudson (1992) and Lam and Quattrochi (1992). First, scale as a cartographic definition. This meaning implies the “depicted size of a feature on a map relative to its actual size in the world” (Montello 2001, pp. 14771). This is the most common understanding about scales, examples could be 1:5 or 1:3000 scale representations which can be found in maps or models. Second, the analysis scale, which refers to “the size of the unit at which some problem is analyzed” (Montello 2001, pp. 14771). For instance, if a research on genetics includes a representative sample from the entire indigenous population in Chile, necessarily it must conceive its geographical unit of analysis at national level, so the study applies at national scale. The third meaning is the phenomenon scale, which considers “the size at which geographic structures exist and over which geographic processes operate in the world. It is the 'true' scale of geographic phenomena” (Montello 2001, pp. 14772). According to Lam and Quattrochi (1992), for geographers it is widely assumed that the scale matters and often concepts in geography reflect that phenomena are scale-dependent; “Vegetation stands are smaller than vegetation regions and linguistic dialects are distributed over smaller areas than languages” (Lam and Quattrochi 1992: 90). However, geographers are also aware that diverse phenomena can interact at multiple geographical scales (Lam & Quattrochi 1992). Somehow, Lam and Quattrochi’s work captures the Brenner’s critique on that the studies of geographical scales and its social production had been subordinated to the analysis of fixed geographical scales. Likewise, global-city theorists such as Swyngedouw (1992) and Brenner (1998) provide other suggestive intellectual views on the question of scale based on the profound economic, social, political and cultural –but also environmental– changes and transformations entailed by globalization since 1960´s and 1970´s. Under globalization, Brenner argues (1998), the role of geographical scales emerges either predominant and constitutive of hierarchies and boundaries of “densely intertwined, overlapping forms of territorial organization [such as states and cities]” (Brenner 1998, pp. 461). “In the literature on geographical scale, the state has been understood largely through its role as the organisational-territorial locus of national scale... [Brenner elaborates] a broader conceptualisation of the territorial state not only as a site within which geographical scales are produced but as an important institutional precondition, agent, mediator and outcome [of the geographical scale]... [Thus], territorial state is itself multiscalar form of capitalist territorial organisation that encompasses national, subnational and supranational [simultaneously”1 (Brenner 1998, pp. 469). In short, Brenner examines the historical geography of state under different rounds of capitalist restructuring –from 1890s to post-1970s. In so doing, Brenner explains that the state has played different roles in the capital circulation over this period, characterizing the multiscalar role of the state during the last decades. Brenner’s examination of the multiscalar role of the state is congruent with Wisner’s et al. (2004) observations of the ‘root causes’ and ‘dynamic pressures’ intervening in the production of vulnerability, risk and disaster. Brenner’s analysis is also consistent with Pelling’s (2003) explorations on ‘global pressures’ acting on the construction of risk. There are many angles from which global-city researchers have theorized and analysed geographical scales under globalization, but in general they agree in the fact that the study of cities, specifically global cities, should not be longer subordinated only to the study at one single scale. Finally, this essay summarizes the global-city researchers approaches on the question of geographical scale by quoting Smith (1992) and Swyngedouw (1992) who have described geographical scale as follows: 1 Brenner provides empirical information on the multiscalar role of the state in his article “Building Euro-regions...” (2000), and the multiscalar role of cities as forms of territorial organisation in “Globalisation as reterritorialisation” (1999). 23 24 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 “The making of places implies the production of scale in so far as places are made different from each other; scale is the creation of difference not so much between places as between different kinds of places. […] The construction of scale is not simply a spatial solidification or materialisation of contested social forces and processes; the corollary also holds. Scale is an active progenitor of specific social processes... Scale demarcates the sites of social contest, the object as well as the resolution of contest” (Smith 1992, pp. 64). In Swyngedouw’s words: “Geographical scales are both the realm and the outcome of the struggle over control over space”(Swyngedouw 1992, pp. 60). The aftermath of two disasters in Chile Chaitén Volcano Eruption In May 2008, the Chaitén volcano located 10km inland from the city of that name erupted and caused the evacuation and subsequent displacement of the entire city population, around 7000 inhabitants, including public officials and emergency personnel (De la Barrera et al. 2011). In the first day, Chaitén city’s inhabitants were evacuated mainly to Puerto Montt and Castro. Ten days after the evacuation, the explosion of the volcano’s dome caused lahars and floods that left the city totally uninhabitable (Lara 2009). Economic losses were estimated in US$12 million only by insured public buildings and other US$36 million were directed to social support for evacuated –and displaced– people (Lara 2009). Chaitén disaster became evident after the delay of authorities for delivering a plan in the next months and years. One year after of the eruption, three reports (Moreno & Lara 2008; Moreno et al. 2008; SERNAGEOMIN 2009) commissioned by the Chilean government determined that the current location of Chaitén is highly prone to new eruptions and seismic activities. Due to the latter, in January 2009 the government announced that there will be no reconstruction of Chaitén (Muñoz 2009) and there will be no investment of any kind in the historic location but alternative plans based on the displacement of Chaitén to other safer zones will be developed. Two years after the eruption, in 2010, Santa Barbara was chosen as the location of the New Chaitén (Ramirez 2010), however the same year a massive earthquake stroke the southern-central area of the country killing around 500 people, affecting other one million people, and producing more than US$30 billion in losses (EM-DAT 2013), and plans for the relocation of the New Chaitén were stopped (Ramirez 2010). By 2011 more than 250 people had returned to Chaitén, living without access to basic services such as potable water and electricity (Paz 2011) as well as health and security services. Likewise, people who decided to move to other towns and cities felt overwhelmed by debt and other economic problems, and had problems in integrating themselves into their new communities (Paz 2011). In the case of people who decided to return to Chaitén, it seems clear that they are at higher risk than other Chaitén’s inhabitants who decided to stay in host cities. The latter can be explained because of the location, the proximity to the volcano, the isolation of the city due to the destruction of key transport and communication infrastructure, and so on. However, analyzing with more details, neither returned people and displaced people have been able to at least restore their pre-disaster lives, on the contrary, they are at more risk than before. What this essay discusses is that the lack of authorities´ coordination both regional and national for addressing either the reconstruction or displacement of the city, have undermined people´s opportunities for recovery after the disaster. From a geography perspective, scale risk seems placing at local 24 25 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 level, within Chatién’s urban frame, neglecting the fact that political processes both at regional and national level have participated in the production of that risk. However, from a social-construction-of-risk perspective, and devising the PAR model (Wisner et al. 2004), the production of risk seems to be nested in the lack of authorities coordination and will to solve the problem, among others rather than physical and merely local. So, although risk can emerge locally it is important to consider the possibility that underlying factors on the production of vulnerability can be nested and unfolded from, and through other geographical scales. Likewise, it is important to see that the Chaitén disaster is not only located within city’s boundaries but it became a regional –and also national– issue when displaced people could not return to Chaitén or found alternative solutions even five years after the volcano’s eruption. Maule, Chile Earthquake 2010 In February 2010, an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 Richter scale, stroke southern-central Chile affecting six regions which inhabit around 80 percent of the country’s total population (INE 2002). In January 2011, the Chilean Ministry of Internal Affairs (Ministerio del Interior de Chile 2011) announced the final death toll of 525 victims and 25 people missing. According to MarketWatch WSJ (2010), the “economic damage in Chile could range between $15 billion and $30 billion, about 10% to 15% of the country's GDP”. Likewise, the Casen PostEarthquake Survey (Larranaga and Herrera 2011) demonstrated that 8.8 percent of the total six-regions’ population resulted with their homes destroyed or severely damaged by the events –1,150 million people and more than 350,000 houses–, and affecting especially poor people. This report also revealed that poorer people in Chile have a three times higher probability for being affected by physical events than richer people in the same area, mainly because of building materials, location in disaster prone areas and weak social network to cope with post-disaster effects. In total 200,000 people were displaced into temporary shelters, from which 1,300 families were still living in those “temporary” solutions, mainly in Maule and Bio-Bio regions, by 2012 (Perasso 2011). Although authorities recognize the role of poverty in the production of vulnerability and therefore risk, in general neglect underlying factors beyond boundaries of affected areas. For instance, the uneven urban development throughout the country as result of a geographical centralization policies during last decades – e.g. Santiago concentrates one-third of total Chile’s population, 40% of national GPD, among others (Brehme 2010). Thus, the question of scale in the production of risk emerges here supported by the rise of vulnerability approaches. Questions about how decades of geographical centralization based on neoliberalism policies in Chile has placed people, who live far away from the Chilean capital and its development, at risk? Brehme (2010) pointed out that economic pressures for regional competitiveness were drivers of land-use planning corruption in Concepción, where several buildings were built in disaster prone areas and which finally resulted destroyed by the earthquake in 2010. Closing remarks Since disaster risk may be conceived as non-natural phenomena and therefore social, political, economic and environmental dimensions are analytically implicated into the production and reproduction of risk, we should no longer conceive “spatial scales as pre-given and ‘natural’ arenas of social interaction” (Brenner 1998: 460). In other words, geographical scales have been interpreted in disaster risk studies as merely “arenas” where social, political, economic and environmental dimensions take place. And this interpretation 25 32 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 are mostly deprived from traditional development activities and “privileged” – those are poor but get more attention by all development partners. For details of this classification readers are refer to read Mallick’s research paper on “Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh” (Mallick 2014). Here, red dots represent the group of “social supreme“, blue dots the group of “privileged” and light green dots the group of “middle income)” respondents. It turns out that only rarely, the members of the Social Supreme group are residing outside the catchment area. Considering a radius of 1.5 kilometres, in general, 90 percent of all respondents’ households are close to a cyclone shelter; considering a catchment area of 1 kilometre, 65 percent of them are close to a cyclone shelter; yet, only 25 percent of the surveyed households live within a distance of 500 meter from the cyclone shelter. Above, there are households which are even located outside of the defined catchment areas of cyclone shelters. It is evident here that as the catchment area decreases the closeness to the cyclone shelter of Social Supreme group also increases (Table 1). Catchment area of cyclone Shelter % of Social Supreme inside the catchment (3% of the sample) % of middle income inside the catchment (79% of the sample) % of privileged inside the catchment (18% of the sample) 500 meter 60 35 45 1000 meter 87 55 72 1500 meter 97 73 80 Table 1: Distribution of respondents groups according to the cyclone-shelter catchmen Source: Author’s field survey 2009 and 2010 In the next step, the plinth height of the respondents’ residential houses was included into the analysis. In case of the crevasses that often occur during storm surges, the inland residential areas are flooded. The average height of a storm flood is between 3 to 4 meters above mean sea level (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Therefore, the floor of the dwellings which are usually blocked during the storm surge must be built at least 4 meters above sea level. The higher a plinth of a house, the less its inhabitants are affected by the impacts of a flood. By means of the digital elevation model and the plinth height above the ground it was found out that the average plinth height is only 3.5 meters above sea level. If the embankments along the coast break or are overtopped by tidal-surges, living space is highly imperilled to be inundated by flood waves above 3.5 meters. Except for the embankments’ dike peaks; there are only few areas that are situated higher than 4 meters above sea level. Considering the spatial distribution it is now possible to deduce the probabilities of a dwelling’s destruction including the whole sequence of effects. Preparedness Exemplarily, the next step of the analytical concept integrates a cyclone preparation measure. Some of the basic information of the respondents is presented in Table 2. The reception of early warnings is pre-requisite for the inhabitants to take preparatory actions in case of an imminent disastrous incident. The survey reveals that approximately all respondents had received the early warning, whereas only 30 percent took action for preparedness, but why? Answer of this question depends on the earliness of receiving early warning (Table 2). Less than 1 percent received early warning more than 24 hours before the event, and therefore, they were 32 33 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 prepared for the cyclone. Among this group, for instance, 53 percent tied up their houses’ roofs to trees, whereas others removed their food to a safe place. Particulars Indicators Value Categories of residential house % Kutcha 59 % Semi-pucca 39 % Pucca 2.1 Adequacy of per capita floor area ratio % Inadequate floor area ratio for the family 92.2 % Adequate floor area ratio for the family 7.8 Plinth level category (in meter) % Less than 1 meter 49.3 % 1.00 – 1.50 meter 38.1 % More than 1.5 meter 12.5 Cost of residential house (RH) construction category % Less than 400 USD 15.4 % 400 – 650 USD 72.2 % More than 650 USD 12.4 Accessibility to cyclone shelter/primary school % Comfort accessibility (less than 10 minutes) 39.2 % Moderate accessibility (10 - 30 minutes) 39.6 % Hard to reach (more than 30 minutes) 21.2 Accessibility to drinking water sources % Comfort accessibility (less than 10 minutes) 70.1 % Moderate accessibility (10 - 30 minutes) 28.8 % Hard to reach (more than 30 minutes) 1.1 Able to understand the early warning % Understand early warning 71.8 % Do not understand the early warning 28.2 Earliness of receiving early warning % Preparation is not possible (less than 6 hours) 77.6 % Hard to be prepared (7 to 24 hours) 22.3 % Possible to be prepared (more than 24 hours) 0.2 Table 2: Summary statistics of respondents Source: Derived from field data of 2009 and 2010 Why have so few respondents been able to prepare themselves for the cyclone? Two explications were most often mentioned: the respondents either indicated not to have had enough time or to have felt helpless. The biographical interviews reveal that many inhabitants had been surprised by the onset of the cyclone. Shahabuddin, a 70-year old man from the village of Sharankhola reported: “It came all of sudden, we felt paralyzed”. The second example was provided by a 38-year old woman, Karuna Bala Dashi from the village of Koyra. She said: “When cyclone Aila hit, the water rose hip-high within 20 to 30 minutes. All of us got on our boats and reached for the few things we could rescue.” Coping In the framework of this study it is essential to know where the affected people stayed during the cyclone, where they have searched for and found a safe place, and which have been the shelters in the research area. As mentioned earlier, cyclone shelters are important refuges and are the basis for the country’s prevention concept. Why did not the victims of cyclone try to reach a cyclone shelter? The group discussions and 33 34 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 household surveys gave information on this question. The group has collectively discussed and appreciated the distance to the shelters and how often they had been used. The result shows only a minority of inhabitants sought refuge in the cyclone shelters, although they offered sufficient intake capacity. Why it is so? The results of a principal component analysis offer explications why the minority of inhabitants did not use the shelters: the reception of the early warning plays the most important role, followed by the individual household’s preparedness. Surely, condition of the respondents’ dwelling plays a key role in their decisiontaking. People assume that they can still take measures even on the flood-waves arrival if they perceive a concrete endangerment of their property. However, this is not possible from a distant shelter as the social status is decisive, too, for instance farmers or day-labourers. Eventually, it was reported during field survey that due to cultural reasons, women take less often refuge in cyclone shelters than men. Individual positive experience with cyclones however encourages people to search for refuge in a cyclone shelter. Reconstruction and rehabilitation When a cyclone has passed the region, the victims must overcome the consequences, traumata and damages in order to be able to live on. It is not always possible for them to cope with these challenges on their own as resources are either inexistent or have been destroyed as well. Humanitarian organizations and, as most important factor, government should support them in this situation. Sometimes, also private initiatives offer emergency relief. However, in the research area, these measures of emergency assistance are unevenly distributed in terms of space, which can only partly be explained by differing accessibility. Political and social assessment and the distribution of power play a major role. Emergency relief projects are first and foremost implemented at places where they can be geared towards the media that is close to minimizing traffic connections or hotel, guest houses. In such preferential areas, donors compete while the peripheral regions hardly benefit from any emergency assistance. In recent years, the Government of Bangladesh and other development partners in the country (namely United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), European Union (EU), etc.), was planned about 1.4 billion USD on spending for the recovery from the damage of cyclone Sidr and Aila. The question is how those funds were distributed amongst the victims. 57% of respondents of the survey believe that local politicians have used their power in the distribution of relief. Similar results are derived from group discussions and biographical interviews. External supports and response to affected society sometimes are also observed as “dependency on others” that increases the expectation of external supports. Particularly, if someone keep getting help from others, he/she lose his/her own ability to reduce/deal with a risk, if there are many different ways that the victims can benefit them or use their better chance. And long term, they expect a lot of them and thus to calculate the best way. This assumption is summarized using a biographical interviews, the respondent, Mr. Alam Mia on Majherchar village Southkhali Union, had said: "Why should I rebuild my broken house? After Cyclone Sidr came many NGOs to build my house. At that time I made a mistake because I have accepted the support of the charity Caritas Bangladesh. If I had taken the house of the organization Muslim Aid, today I had a very good house. I wait this time until they come to me, or even going to try to go to them." 34 35 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 This interview shows that the long-term expectations of external assistance increases. But if there is no more relief, the affected people should continue to live and for this they must also work to secure their livelihoods, same as their inheritance did during 1950s when there were literally no external aid programs available. Resistance/Adaptation However, even if the emergency relief organizations stop their programs, people must live on and secure their livelihood. How do the people affected react on this situation? They could sell their own resources, for instance, 17 percent of the respondents have sold their crops, cattle or jewellery. 14 percent of the interviewees have changed their employment due to the extent of damages, their dependency on the exploitation of the Sundarbans and the limited opportunities to participate in reconstruction works. In most cases, the farmers have worked as fishermen, as in the wake of the cyclone Aila, farmlands were inundated and could not be longer be cultivated. Yet not all the affected could follow this strategy and therefore took out a loan, which became the main source of income to secure their livelihood. About 80 percent of the surveyed households have taken out loans from different mortgagees such as NGOs, banks or local money lenders. Some of them have borrowed money because an emergency relief organization has asked them to do so. Actually, aid organizations have often created microcredit programs after the end of the emergency relief, which became one of the most important sources of income helping the impoverished inhabitants to survive. Some of the inhabitants have left the village. Those who had received only little help and had borrowed substantial amounts of money have most often migrated to nearby towns. 34 percent of the surveyed households reported that at least one of their family members had left the village. This situation which recurs after every similar incident explains for the rapid growth of cities and also leads to a gradual change of the affected society. Discussion The results in selected communities show that socio-economic conditions of the surveyed households are the most important factors in coping with the effects of cyclones. This means that if the households in the communities are technically, socially and economically strong enough, they can resist with adverse consequences of cyclone. However, results shows that relief efforts were exploited by those in power. It means those in power or those considered as “social supreme” have a very big influence on the local decision making process. They support their dependent groups and reinforce this. This leads to social marginalization as a result of a disaster and also to strengthening of “patron-client-dependency” in the society. The current state of the coastal society is also a result of social processes during the frequent devastating cyclones or other natural events. In addition, the social power of different actors has a strong spatial pattern, corresponding to affects resulting from the reaction of those affected and mitigated. These spatial patterns are an important key to understanding the effects of any kind of disaster, as well as the subsequent relief and prevention measures. Therefore, for disaster preparedness planning a holistic approach of underpinning the concept of individual vulnerability monitoring is important, where the vulnerability is defined on the cultural, socio-economic, political and environmental context of the victims. The results of this research demonstrates the need for such a spatially differentiated analysis and planning, including a vulnerability atlas in the sense of a comprehensive database, are the most useful measure for analysis and development of plans and measures. This kind of analysis should be a helpful guide for the development of concepts and strategies for future risk management. It will also be an instrument that shows temporal monitoring of the effects of disasters and relief and thus can also be used to evaluate policies for external interventions. 35 36 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Acknowledgement This research was supported under a Doctoral Dissertation Research Grants from Catholic Academic Exchange Services (KAAD), Germany and Field Research Grant from Karlsruhe House of Young Scientists (KHYS) of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). Special thanks are given to Gundula Marks and Tommasina Miller for their supports in linguistic and grammatical edits. I am also thankful to Prof. Dr. Dilip Kumar Dutta and Ms. Zakia Sultana of Khulna University, and Dr. Animesh K. Gain of Postdam Institute of Climate Research (PIK), Berlin for their valuable comments on the earlier version of this paper. Thoughtful comments from the anonymous reviewers are also sincerely appreciated. 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Survey amongst the Participants of the 2013 DAAD Alumni Summer School Alexander Fekete, Christiane Grinda & Celia Norf Email: [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] Figure 1: The nominal survey results, conducted per email on April 23-25 2014, in overview Question 1: Are there any indications in your working environment or in your country in general of: Increasing or decreasing climate change related hazards? No Bangladesh: “No increase of CC related hazards. The situation has not changed much. We even have a very lovely spring with sufficient rain so far, but there have been regions hit by hail already.” Indonesia: “It is supposed that climate change related hazards decrease in Indonesia. Indonesian Government Program provided people some actions to be aware of them, i.e. National and Regional Action Movements on Greenhouse Effects.” Moldova: “No increase of CC related hazards. The situation has not changed much. We even have a very lovely spring with sufficient rain so far, but there have been regions hit by hail already." Yes Chile: “In Chile there is an increasing of CC related hazards as well as awareness by people and authorities about those.” China(A): “According to China National Climate Center, rainfalls increases by 4% than average standard in China, while distributed unevenly in 2013. Overall temperature increased by 0.6℃ compared with average standard. Particular, 31 Typhoon generated in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea area, 5.5 incidences more than normal number. Example of extreme weather in 2014: floods, landslides and geological events resulting from melting snow have affected north-western Xinjiang since early March. It also suffered from a rare April snow.” 38 39 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 China(B): “The scientific evidence are still not solid to link hazards with climate change.” Ghana: “There is increasing climate change related hazard. The country Ghana is seeing more floods at some geographical locations and more drought at other places” Ruanda: “Yes.” Turkey: “Though, it is related to information technologies and social media news, or real hazard events, the registered climate change related hazard numbers are increasing. And the visibility of CC events’ effects are increasing in country range.” Undecided South Africa: “For this do you mean in science in general? Or in popular media? Again I have no idea... I guess I can’t comment on this one! Unless I did a quick search for the term, because my answer would be completely biased.” Question 2: Are there any indications in your working environment or in your country in general of: Increasing or decreasing climate change adaptation policies or actions? No None Yes Bangladesh: “Yes - increasing CCA policies. First of all, the Government is preparing a new Strategy for Agriculture for 2010-2014. Then we have increasing interest from the part of Ministry of Environment. There is also a great acceleration regarding this subject generated by foreign structure (GIZ, World Bank).” Chile: “Yes. In the last years, and specifically this year, several public policies have been announced towards the mitigatory measures such as a strict control over CO2 emissions and protection of ecosystems.” China(A): “There is improvement in policy, for example: •Official release of “The national strategy for adapting to climate change” in November 2013, identifying adaptation objectives, key tasks, the regional pattern and safeguards measures. Under this guideline, regional administrations have issued according climate change adaptation policy and targets, such as Chongqing, Shanghai and Gansu. •Call for enhancing data collection and evaluation on extreme weather and disasters since 2013 August •Interestingly, a lot focus of climate strategies have emphasized on smog problem. Green Paper on Climate Change issued by CSA also largely focused on smog, although it recognizes pollution is the major cause other than climate change. Accordingly, most climate change working groups are also focusing on fighting smog problem.” China(B): “China has adaptation strategy in its climate change white paper. Some pilot projects are undergoing.” 39 40 Norf, C. et al. (Eds.) 2014 Ghana: “There is an increase in climate change adaptation actions.” Indonesia: “It is supposed that Indonesian Government is more concern on Climate Change Adaptation by administering and implementing regulations or policies, e.g. many companies which are responsible for forest fire cases are brought to the court and got punished.” Moldova: “Yes - increasing CCA policies. First of all, the Government is preparing a new Strategy for Agriculture for 2010-2014. Then we have increasing interest from the part of Ministry of Environment. There is also a great acceleration regarding this subject generated by foreign structure (GIZ, World Bank)." Ruanda: “Yes.” Turkey: “Especially in last decade in Turkey, there is an increase on climate change adaptation policies or actions. These are visible with ‘Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan’ which published in 2012.” Undecided South Africa: “I would guess at the moment that CC hazards are pretty much as frequent as they have been in my adult experience (10 years). It’s a little difficult to tell with biased press only reporting certain events in the world.” Question 3: Are there any indications in your working environment or in your country in general of: Increasing or decreasing usage of the term resilience? No China(B): “Even hard to find a really good translation for resilience.” Yes Bangladesh: “Yes - increasing.” Chile: “Yes. An increasing of the term resilience. Both by scholars and authorities, the term resilience have been used in media and academic circles. However, I have found that both groups often misuse the term, using it as synonym of 'resistant'.” China(A): “The graph below is search result on CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure): publication numbers with key words: Climate change + resilience. It shows obvious increasing research focus on resilience in climate change. However, in the mass media, it seems that mostly used term is “Adaptation” (适 应). Resilience is either mixed with “Adaptation” or referred as non-mainstream word 恢复力.” 40 41 Integrative Risk and Security Research Volume 1/ 2014 Figure 2: Number of publications with key words “Climate Change + resilience” available on China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Ghana: “There is an increase in the usage of the term resilience.” Indonesia: “It is supposed that the usage of resilience term increases. By advocating and disseminating knowledge people in vulnerable areas are ready to cope with hazards and will have short duration of traumatic period.” Moldova: “Yes - increasing.” Ruanda: “Yes.” Turkey: “Turkey stands on disaster prone regions. So Turkish academicians and citizens are familiar to the term resilience. But in last decade the term resilience is commonly used with Climate Change events.” Undecided South Africa: “No idea... I would guess they are increasing. My experience is completely limited to South Africa, plus a little of Belgium at the moment, but I really don't follow their politics/policies regarding CCA at all. There is also a large gap in SA between policy makers and the rest of us (civilians/scientists etc). So I really don't know exactly whether policies/actions are increasing in a positive way towards CCA...” 41