Political economy of food systems: Africa and the Russia-Ukraine war

Journal of Social Sciences Vol. VIII, no. 1 (2025), pp. 6 - 24 Fascicle Social Science ISSN 2587-3490 Topic Economics Policy and Economic Policies eISSN 2587-3504 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.52326/jss.utm.2025.8(1).01 UDC 339.97:664(6) POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FOOD SYSTEMS: AFRICA AND THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR Emmanuel Ndhlovu*, ORCID: 0000-0002-2339-3068 University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa * Corresponding author: Emmanuel Ndhlovu, [email protected] Received: 12. 28. 2024 Accepted: 02. 14. 2025 Abstract. This article examines the connection between political developments, economic structures, and food systems in Africa, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war. The article explores how the prevailing political economy influences food production, distribution, and consumption, identifies the conduits through which the war impacted the food system value chain, and proposes how national and local governments can build resilient food systems capable of meeting the population’s food needs amidst crises. The findings show that the war affected Africa's food system mainly by disrupting the supply chain of commodities that Africa used to develop and sustain its food system. The war disrupted inputs, energy, and food products from Russia and Ukraine to African countries that depend on these countries for these commodities. The article also proposes response mechanisms to the impacts of the war and how African countries can navigate future disruptions and build resilient food systems capable of meeting the population’s food needs. The article could be exciting for politicians and policymakers working on food security, food sovereignty, and diplomatic issues. Keywords: Africa, agriculture, food systems, Russia and Ukraine war. Rezumat. Articolul examinează legătura dintre evoluțiile politice, structurile economice și sistemele alimentare din Africa, concentrându-se pe războiul Rusia-Ucraina. Articolul explorează modul în care economia politică dominantă influențează producția, distribuția și consumul de alimente, identifică canalele prin care războiul a afectat lanțul valoric al sistemului alimentar și propune modul în care guvernele naționale și locale pot construi sisteme alimentare rezistente, capabile să satisfacă nevoile alimentare ale populației în timpul crizelor. Descoperirile arată că războiul a afectat sistemul alimentar al Africii în principal prin perturbarea lanțului de aprovizionare cu mărfuri pe care Africa le-a folosit pentru a-și dezvolta și susține sistemul alimentar. Războiul a perturbat inputurile, energia și produsele alimentare din Rusia și Ucraina către țările africane care depind de aceste țări pentru aceste mărfuri. Articolul propune, de asemenea, mecanisme de răspuns la impactul războiului și modul în care țările africane pot naviga în viitoarele perturbări și pot construi sisteme alimentare rezistente, capabile să satisfacă nevoile alimentare ale populației. Articolul ar putea fi captivant pentru politicienii și factorii de decizie care lucrează la securitatea alimentară, suveranitatea alimentară și problemele diplomatice. Cuvinte cheie: Africa, agricultură, sisteme alimentare, război dintre Rusia și Ucraina. E. Ndhlovu 7 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 1. Introduction In August 2022, the Razoni cargo ship, which carried about 26,000 tonnes of grain, slowly sailed out from the port of Odesa under the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative. The ship became the first to leave Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict outbreak in February 2022. The war had blocked food transportation from a region that constitutes 30% of the world’s grains and the source of 12% of globally traded calories [1]. Before the war, Ukraine supplied 42% of sunflower oil, 18% maize, 14% wheat, and 10% barley to the global food market. Russia also contributed 21% sunflower oil, 16% maize, 9% wheat, and 10% barley [2]. The two warring countries were major exporters of fertilisers, minerals, agricultural products, and energy to other global regions, including Africa [3]. The war demonstrated how food systems are by-products of numerous factors, including agriculture policy, politics, and the broader economy. It highlighted the supremacy of political economy (the interplay between politics and economics) to food systems (intricate networks related to agricultural and food production and consumption) at the international level. This demonstrates the centrality of the political economy in food access and utilisation, yet comprehensive exploratory investigations on the political economy of food systems amidst crises remain scant. While many studies on food prices and subsidies and how these factors relate to hunger, undernourishment, and food production and consumption exist [4-7], studies that explore the political economy within the context of a crisis are limited. Most previous studies identify household aspects as major determining factors of food security, while community and regional aspects have not received satisfactory attention. This is despite the fact that food access and utilisation are sometimes used as a war weapon, an instrument to punish political opponents and a tool to accrue political capital politicians [8]. This article, therefore, seeks to close this knowledge gap in literature. The concept of political economy is used in this article to generally denote the combined and networking effects of economic and political structures or processes. Karl Marx, one of the leading philosophers on political economy, described it as a combination of political and financial circumstances of a particular location (community, country, region, continent, or even the world), taking into account the location, population, various classes, production patterns, export and import, consumption, and commodity prices, and so forth [9]. In the context of food systems, viewed this way, political economy gives insight into how a particular food system is impacted by the various processes unfolding elsewhere. For Marx [9 p. 41], the approach provides an understanding of the “rich totality of many determinations and relations” and the ‘concrete’ understanding, which emerges through “iterations between conceptual abstractions and detailed empirical observation…” In a globalised world, food systems are now highly dependent, feeding into and drawing from each other [10]. Smooth functioning depends on the overall harmony of all the systems interacting with each other. Many factors can change a food system. These factors can be through external or internal forces or both and the feedback mechanisms between these interactions. The article (i) explores the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on African food systems, (ii) identifies the conduits through which the war impacted the food system value chain, from pre-production and production to storage, processing, and distribution to food consumption within households and other food outlets, and (iii) proposes how national and local governments can build resilient food systems capable of meeting the population’s food needs amidst crises. The article provides critical insights to policymakers on understanding food 8 Political Economy of Food Systems: Africa and the Russia-Ukraine War Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 system opportunities and challenges during a crisis. It draws attention to how a crisis can further slay human lives and complicate possibilities for quick recovery following a crisis. The article also exposes how politicians often manipulate food systems to increase political capital, thus frustrating the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It also flags the necessary investments that national governments can make to make their food systems independent and more resilient. This article is organised as follows: after the introduction, the research method for the article is presented. The article then presents food systems as a conceptual framework and reviews the related literature. This is followed by the presentation of findings and their discussion. Lastly, conclusions are drawn from the findings and the discussion. 2. Materials and Methods This article deployed a conceptual research design to explore the effects of the RussoUkrainian war on African food systems. This approach was vital because it did not involve conducting practical experiments or gathering new empirical data [11]. The approach is based on observing and analysing existing information on the topic. The key advantages of the approach are that it involves few resources compared to other types of research where practical experimentation is required and saves time and assets. It only utilises the assessment of existing writing [12]. Its disadvantages, however, are that conclusions and recommendations are drawn based on literature instead of empirical investigation [11,13]. The article relied on grey literature (institutional reports, newspaper articles, and blogs) and academic literature (journals, chapters, and books). The articles for analysis were identified in Google Scholar and Scopus databases. These databases were preferred because they did not require any institutional login details. The search words used were 'Russia and Ukraine war', 'Russo-Ukrainian war', 'food security', and ‘food system’. In addition to having at least two of the keywords in the title, abstract, or keywords, the articles needed to have the term ‘Africa’ in the title. It also needed to have been published between March 01, 2022, and September 30, 2024, written in English and downloadable, focusing on food security or food systems and Africa. The initial search yielded 654 articles, of which 379 were immediately excluded because they were published before the conflict began in February 2022. In addition, 72 articles were excluded because they were not in the two databases. Another 27 articles were excluded because they were not in English, and their translation was unavailable. Furthermore, 37 articles were excluded because they were not downloadable, while another 84 were excluded because they were not in Africa. Lastly, 31 articles were excluded because, although they explored the Russo-Ukrainian war, they did not explore its impact on food security or food systems. Eventually, 24 articles were selected for analysis. These articles are summarised in Table 1. Table 1 An overview of literature on the Russia-Ukraine war Articles Preproduction Production Processing/ Packaging/ Storage/ Distribution Consumption Antwi-Boateng & Al Nuaimi [14] √ Duho et al. [15] √ √ √ √ Chihwai [16] E. Ndhlovu 9 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 Continuation Table 1 Mhlanga & Ndhlovu [17] √ √ Mhlanga & Ndhlovu [18] √ Ndhlovu & Dube [19] √ WFP [20] √ Aidi [21] √ √ Mhlanga & Ndhlovu [22] √ √ √ √ Berahab [23] √ √ √ Tinarwo et al. [24] √ √ √ Hatab [2] √ √ Zindi [25] √ √ Wudil et al. [26] √ √ √ One Africa [27] √ √ Papadavid [28] √ √ √ Mlaba [29] √ √ √ FEWSNET [30] √ √ Raga et al. [31] √ Lopes [32] √ Ngepah [33] √ Ndhlovu & Mhlanga [34] √ Hackenesch & Lacher [35] √ √ Wang et al. [36] √ √ Total – 24 articles Note: √ denotes that a particular article (in the row) covers a particular food system component (in the column). The selected articles were read through to ensure that they focused on food security or food systems in Africa. Latent content analysis, a method whereby meaning is deduced from what is contained in a text(s) – was used to establish how the war has impacted Africa’s food system. Latent content analysis provided in-depth insights into how the war is perceived as having impacted Africa’s food system. Thematic data analysis was used. The key components of a food system were used: production, processing, transportation, and consumption. The pre-production component was also added due to its prevalence in the article. Most of the selected articles covered more than one component of the food systems and were, therefore, recorded as such in Table 1. The research method utilised offered key benefits: it is easily replicable, and researchers can utilise the same texts used in the study to verify the conclusions reached. The method was also affordable and did not require any use of special software. In this way, regardless of experience, researchers can easily follow up on the results reported here by going through the methodology deployed. The use of secondary literature, however, has particular limitations. The inclusion of articles only published in Scopus and Google Scholar and grey literature mainly by international policy organisations could have excluded other relevant publications from other sources. In addition, the choice of search words could have influenced the selection of articles. Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine war is still unfolding, and new studies currently underway may uncover new facts. The author acknowledges these limitations. 3. Food Systems: A Conceptual Framework The war between Russia and Ukraine has had enormous impacts on food systems, thus significantly touching the nerves of the food security conditions of countries. By definition, food systems include the entire array of actors and their interwoven value-adding actions 10 Political Economy of Food Systems: Africa and the Russia-Ukraine War Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 engaging in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food products produced from agriculture, forestry or fisheries, and food industries, and the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they are [37,38]. The first point of production in the value chains is traditionally viewed as farming communities. However, other actors are in the pre-production category, such as input industries that produce fertilisers, pray chemicals, and seeds (even though seeds come from farming itself). The range of actors also involves science, technology, and innovation actors that may seem detached and yet integral to the food system. Food and non-food inputs result from interwoven value chains within food processing industries. Other pertinent food system actors, such as public and private quality and safety control bodies, are connected to these value chains. Every food system is a set of activities contributing to food availability, access, and utilisation (see Figure 1). Figure 1. Food system value chain. Source: Author. In addition to the food systems direct actors listed in Figure 1, other actors, which include national and local governments, civil society, non-governmental stakeholders, lawmakers, policymakers, land activists, and/or lobbyists, also influence the food environment through their actions and decisions [39]. For a food system to be regarded as sustainable, it has to deliver food security and nutrition for all in a manner that safeguards the socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental bases of food production for use by future generations [6]. The interface of the components of a particular food system is fundamental to ensuring its sustainability. Exchanges and dynamics between and among the actors in the system generate new properties that may not be located in or explained by a single component or sub-component but are characteristic of the entire system [40]. Just like social, economic, and environmental factors, the prevailing political scenarios also wield much influence on how food system activities unfold, generating multiplier effects. Political conflict is one of the significant causes of food insecurity globally because it is detrimental to food system components [18]. Using the Russia–Ukraine conflict, this article offers insights into how conflicts affect food systems. 4. Literature Review: Food and Nutrition (in)Security in Africa The literature on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on humanity and its activities is increasing [7,41]. Hunger and malnutrition are among the key challenges that Africa faces. These are triggered by numerous factors ranging from war and conflict, leader deficit, climate change, and pandemics, such as COVID-19. The Russia-Ukraine war only arrived to complicate the situation. The war also has risked the possibility of the global achievement of the fight against poverty and hunger (SDGs 1 and 2). Before the Russia-Ukraine war, hunger was already on Pre-production * Inputs factories (Fertilisers, seeds, agrochimicals) Production •Farming •Forestry •Fisheries Processing & packaging •Food processors •Packaging companies Storage & Distribution •Wholesalers •Distributors •Reatilers •Marketers Consumption E. Ndhlovu 11 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 the rise across countries, thus threatening the SDG agenda [7]. The UN [42] also reported that the fight against hunger and food insecurity was already not on track even before COVID-19. The war exacerbated the situation. Africa was identified as among the global regions which experienced severe challenges in eradicating hunger [4,6]. This region had conflicts and insurgencies which severely affected food production, transportation, and utilisation [43]. For instance, in 2017, a war in South Sudan plunged 42% of the country’s population into severe food insecurity [44]. Somalia, South Sudan, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have also recorded very high child undernourishment and under-five mortality rates due to their political instabilities [44]. In Zimbabwe, high food insecurity and stunted food systems have been linked to the historical standoff between the ruling party and leading political groupings, particularly following the short-circuited land redistributions of the early 2000s [45]. In 2021, 18 African countries experienced armed conflicts [46]. In 12 of these, significant deaths were recorded [46]. This was also felt in agriculture and across the entire food system chain. According to Shararah [47] and Kang [48], the instant effects of wars and conflicts on food systems are a drop in overall agricultural production and a destabilisation of the market systems, resulting in general price hikes, food shortages, and subsequent food insecurity and hunger. The challenges being experienced in Africa’s food system are also linked to the region’s leadership crisis. According to Duho et al. [15], leadership deficit has retarded efforts against hunger and food security prospects across African countries. This crisis has resulted from weak, misplaced, and disruptive projects, including those that directly affect the agriculture sector. For instance, the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programmes in the 1980s left many African farmers without the support of governments, thus resulting in a significant collapse of agriculture. In Cameroon, the devaluation of the currency in line with SAPs reduced land access by households who traditionally contributed significantly to food production for local consumption [49]. Sahn and Arulpagasam [50] also found that following currency devaluation, land occupied by estates soared from 300000 hectares to 843000 hectares in 1980. In Malawi, land inequality also worsened the anti-poor distribution of rural grains. Before the liberalisation of the market in the 1980s, over 60% of peasant households had satisfactory access to agri-inputs, enabling them to make significant contributions to food production. After liberalisation, however, 20% of markets were reduced as companies shut down as they failed to adjust to the new reforms [51]. In Tanzania, farmers also began to experience challenges related to input access due to sudden high prices following the elimination of the 80% subsidy [52]. The fertiliser prices also increased to levels that many farmers could not afford, particularly smallholder and peasant farmers in Ghana and Kenya. This saw a sharp decline in the use of fertilisers by these farmers. Similarly, their production levels also plunged. In Senegal, the market liberalisation and the discontinuity of input subsidies in 1980 affected fertiliser distribution, which subsequently affected groundnut production across the country [53]. Between 1980 and 1986, an 88% decline in fertiliser use was reported nationally [49]. Climate change and its associated natural hazards, such as drought, storms, floods, and cyclones, have devastated food and nutrition [54]. Climate change is implicated as having severely compromised food security and African livelihoods [55]. Chronic declines in agricultural productivity and water resources are pervasive in Africa. Numerous factors account for the region’s susceptibility to natural hazards: the agriculture-dependent structure of the economy, high poverty rates, credit constraints, financial exclusion, adaptive 12 Political Economy of Food Systems: Africa and the Russia-Ukraine War Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 technology shortages, and rain-fed farming. It is predicted that climate change could severely disrupt food systems and decrease crop yields by 50%, thus causing about 20% of SubSaharan Africa (SSA) children to be undernourished by 2050 [56]. One of the indicators of a wounded food system on the continent is the frequency of undernourishment - understood as the percentage of the population whose usual food consumption is inadequate to provide the dietary energy levels essential for maintaining a standard and active life [57]. It is important to mention that most undernourished people in Africa are found in SSA. Table 2 shows the number of people undernourished in different African regions from 2005 to 2019. The data show that only North Africa has experienced a decline, while the rest of the sub-regions have recorded increases in undernourishment. Undernourishment is projected to rise to 25.7% in 2030 from 19.1% in 2019 [54]. Table 2 Undernourishment prevalence in Africa Year 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2030 World 12.6 9.6 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.8 Africa 20.0 18.9 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 19.1 25.7 SSA 23.9 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.4 22.0 29.4 Eastern 32.2 28.9 26.2 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.2 33.6 Central 35.5 30.4 28.2 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.8 38.0 Southern 4.9 5.4 7.0 8.0 7.0 7.9 8.4 14.6 Western 13.8 12.1 14.3 14.2 14.6 14.3 15.2 23.0 Northern 9.8 8.8 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.5 7.4 Source: Author, Developed from FAO [34] * Values projected up to 2030 The reviewed literature concurs that economic expression is the most effective way of addressing food system challenges [4,46]. The economic growth of any country is closely tied to the favourable functioning of its political system [45]. Therefore, dealing with hunger and food insecurity is also tied to the welfare of the broader economy, as supported by favourable politics. According to Harrigan [58], the best strategy to fight hunger and poverty and ensure food system resilience is to increase economic growth through favourable democratic political systems. Poverty is well dealt with through targeted policies at national and regional levels. Thus, efforts to improve the functioning and resilience of a food system should target eliminating poverty through effective policies. A study of 14 countries in the 1990s established that although poverty declined in 11 countries with high economic growth, it increased in 3 countries with low or stagnant economic growth [26]. Chambo [59] found that a 1% increase in per capita income ignited a 1.7% reduction in poverty rates. However, SSA has had the world’s most volatile economic growth rate, with the average annual growth rate of per capita real GDP from the mid-1980s to 1994 mainly negative and recovered to a mere 1.2% between 1995 and 1997 [26]. This has been partly due to political instability and political leadership's adoption of poor and misplaced policies [60]. Figure 2 summarises the economic journey of SSA from 1961 to 2021. Adam et al. [61] argue that due to internal and external shocks, SSA could take longer to recuperate economically and socially. Poverty and food challenges persist despite recent improvements in economic growth rates. E. Ndhlovu 13 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 Figure 2. SSA economic growth over time. Source: Author, Developed from various sources. Several empirical studies found that price shocks have been the primary source of Africa's food system challenges. For instance, Wossen et al. [62] observed that child malnutrition increased when Mozambique increased food prices. A 50% rise in food prices ignited a 5.8% increase in poverty. This consequently affected other components of the local food system. Using data gathered from over 50000 individuals in 18 SSA countries, Verpooten et al. [63] studied how the worldwide food price crisis of 2005–2008 and the associated response mechanisms impacted household food security. They found that urban dwellers were the most affected, while rural folks seemed to fare smoothly. In particular, they found that the severity of food insecurity decreased by 9.2% in rural areas but increased by 7.8% in urban areas between 2005 and 2008. In Ethiopia, Matz et al. [64] found that the unstable price of teff resulted in people's destitution, causing them to reduce their daily meals. The urban poor resorted to skipping or missing meals. Lately, food prices have increased by double digits on average throughout SSA countries, with politically unstable such as Sudan and Zimbabwe recording over 180% increases [8] (see Figure 3). Figure 3. Average food inflation (March to August 2022). Source: Author, Developed from various sources. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Percentage Years 050 100 150 200 250 Sudan Ethiopia Nigeria Togo Uganda Morocco Botswana Mozambique Zambia Percentage Countries 14 Political Economy of Food Systems: Africa and the Russia-Ukraine War Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 Between June and August of 2022, soaring food prices because of the war were the significant causes of the food insecurity of over 38 million people in SSA [8,15]. The belowaverage agricultural output in the 2021/22 season and disrupted trade flows triggered high food prices in Africa, particularly for staple products [8]. Of the more than 30 nations with food costs listed by FAO, a significant number was in Africa: Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, and Liberia [15]. Agricultural productivity, particularly for crops, has been underperforming in SSA since the mid-1970s compared to other global regions [65]. Structural Adjustment Programmes from the early 1980s to the early 1990s only worsened the situation [10]. Since then, most SSA have been relying on food imports. SSA countries spent around US$43 billion on food imports in 2019, possibly due to decades of underinvestment and neglected public infrastructure [48,66], rapid population growth, climate change, underinvestment, and other challenges, including COVID-19. One key challenge closely related to this study and requiring expansion is the impact of conflict on Africa’s food system. Marx et al. [67] found that wars and insurgencies were the disruption causes to Africa’s food system. von Grebmer et al. [68] approximated that US$52 billion or 75% of public aid meant agricultural development was lost to conflicts between 1980 and 1997 in SSA. Boliko [69] also found that about 79% of stunted children were found in regions currently in political instability. The UN also reported that over 34 million people in SSA were either undergoing or recovering from armed conflict and required food and other humanitarian assistance [70]. In Nigeria, Ghana, and Mali, conflicts between herders and farmers have significantly hampered food system operations [71]. Gangsters, terrorists, and criminals have forced significant proportions of farmers to abandon fields and flee to safety. For instance, in northeast Nigeria, Boko Haram and the Islamic State have forced approximately 2.5 million peasant farmers to flee their homes. Agunyai and Ojakorotu [72] estimated that over US$120 billion in agricultural output was lost due to conflicts and wars between 2016 and 2017 in Africa. In Nigeria and Cameroon, border violence has significantly disrupted food transportation and even production within borderland communities. The Ambazonian separatist grouping has forced many Cameroonians to migrate to Nigeria. In contrast, the Boko Haram rebellion has displaced people, including a significant number of farmers, towards Cameroon, Chad, and Niger [73]. Wudil et al. [26] estimate that nearly 4.3 million people in Cameroon need urgent food assistance due to conflicts in the sub-region. The literature shows that food systems are not adversely impacted by wars and conflict within their immediate location but also those far off [46,48,70]. Therefore, the interconnectedness of countries and regions following the globalisation wave has introduced new challenges that were not previously imagined. In showcasing how food systems are affected by developments that unfold elsewhere, this article brings the Russia-Ukraine war into perspective. The literature on these issues is currently unfolding. The article, therefore, contributes to ongoing debates. 5. Results This article's findings show that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has significantly affected most African countries' food systems since February 24, 2022. The impact of the war is felt through spikes in the prices of energy, food, and agricultural inputs caused by supply chain disruptions. At the time of writing, the war was still ongoing despite international de- E. Ndhlovu 21 Journal of Social Sciences March, 2025, Vol. 8 21. Aidi, H. The Russia-Ukraine War: Implications for Africa. Policy Brief PB - 22/22. Policy Center for New South 2022. 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