EXPLORING THE PROFITABILITY AND GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITIES OF ORGANIC FARMING IN UZBEKISTAN

SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 40 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17274522 UDC: 338.27 EXPLORING THE PROFITABILITY AND GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITIES OF ORGANIC FARMING IN UZBEKISTAN Ravshan Asamov, Jasurbek Abdushukurov ABSTRACT This article examines economic efficiency and market demand for organic farming in Uzbekistan’s export markets, emphasizing the transition from non-certified to certified organic production. Using secondary data from international databases (FAO, ITC, WTO, World Bank, FiBL/IFOAM), academic studies, and policy documents, the study applies a descriptive–explanatory design. Adoption of organic farming is treated as the independent variable and analyzed against five dependent variables: export demand, premium pricing and profitability, market access, sustainability benefits, and farmers’ livelihoods. Findings show Uzbekistan has strong comparative advantages in dried fruits, grapes, and horticultural crops, yet certification gaps and weak branding limit its potential. Despite global organic sales reaching €135 billion in 2022–2023, Uzbekistan captures only a fraction of premium opportunities. A case study reveals that if 30% of dried apricot exports were certified organic, revenues could have doubled in 2023. The article concludes that organic farming is economically viable and strategically vital for sustainable development and trade competitiveness. Realizing SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 41 this potential requires policy reforms, including a national certification authority, cooperative certification models, and a branding strategy aligned with consumer trends. Key words: Organic farming, Economic efficiency, Export markets, Certification, Comparative advantage, Sustainable development, Uzbekistan agriculture JEL Classification: Q1, Q13, Q16, Q18, N50, O13 Introduction The agricultural system has undergone a revolution in the past two decades worldwide, where organic agriculture is being considered as a viable alternative to conventional farming. This increase is driven not just by increasing consumer demand for healthier and environmentally friendly food but also by global trading opportunities where sustainability is rewarded through price premiums and market access advantages (Willer et al., 2023). Worldwide, global organic food sales amounted to more than USD $135 billion in 2022 (FiBL & IFOAM, 2023) with steady double-digit growth in areas such as Europe, North America and parts of Asia. In emerging economies such as Uzbekistan, whose agriculture is related to more than 25% of the GDP and employs 27% of its population, the adoption of organic farming is not only an environmental issue and health choice but also a path to pursue to enter into international trade with higher commercial values (World Bank, 2022). Uzbekistan has natural advantages to develop organic farming. It is this country’s climate with direct sunlight, fertile soils, and a range of agro-ecological zones which allows organic fruits, vegetables, and cotton to be grown competitively. Meanwhile, greater international attention on pesticide residues and sustainability standards adds to the enforcement on exporters to meet higher requirements in destination markets like the EU, which has adopted straightforward organic certification measures (European Commission, 2021). Hardly surprising, then, that the shift to organic SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 42 farming is less of a local initiative than it is a requirement for both keeping and procuring trade partners. Looking at economic efficiency and market demand, this article locates the Uzbek potential for organic agriculture as one component of agricultural modernization, trade competitiveness, and sustainable development. Problem Statement Notwithstanding the positive perspective, the application of organic farming systems in Uzbekistan is still minimal and scattered. Agricultural exports, at present, critically depend on traditional cotton, dry fruits, and horticultural products, the majority of which confront hurdles in high-priced markets because of pesticide residues, certified requirements, and lesser market space (FAO, 2021). Farmers face a dilemma: organic farming offers access to profitable markets and the possibility of increased economic returns, but adopting organic farming involves costs, introducing new practices which rely on knowledge systems about certification and changing crop production systems, leading to reduced yields in the short term (Reginald & Wachter, 2016). Furthermore, smallholding farmers (who account for most of Uzbekistan’s agricultural producers) face the costs of certification and the traceability demands of European and Asian buyers (ITC, 2020). Securing visibility on market demand is another pressing issue. Although the demand for organic products is increasing worldwide, information on the potential of exports from Uzbekistan in different export markets is not clear. This knowledge gap constrains the capacity of policymakers and farmers to make evidence-based decisions on the upscaling of organic production. Also, there is a history in the country of an agricultural system that was institutionalised around the (quantity-sensitive) cotton quotas rather than the (quality-sensitive) organic certification and branding (Spoor & Visser, 2020). A lack of a clear concept of economic efficiency and demand structure may lead Uzbek organic agriculture to miss a chance to establish itself as a competitive producer and seller on the worldwide market. Therefore, the issue on which this article focuses is the absence of an overall assessment regarding the possibility for organic SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 43 farming to be economically efficient and market-led in the context of the Uzbek export system. Research Approach Methodologically, this article adopts a secondary research approach employing strategy characterized by predominance of quantitative work with qualitative interpretive component for contextualization. Indeed, such an approach is adequate considering the objectives of the study (with reference to estimating the economic efficiency and the market demand for organic farming in Uzbekistan's export markets). Primary research methods, such as surveys or interviews of farmers, though prized for producing ground-level-based insights, were not selected for the purposes of the article, since the access to such data, time and the fragmented nature of the country’s organic farming prevented it. Instead, the analysis depends on international databased and from secondary sources with standardized, and comparable information on all countries over time (Johnston, 2017). The article lies access to secondary data allowing this to take a macroeconomic approach and view Uzbekistan at the market level, rather than on a firm level when attempting to evaluate its competitiveness in the global organic market. It also permits the disaggregation of the data in different years, providing a strong foundation for the analysis of the growth of the market demand, price premiums, and opportunities for export. At the same time, a qualitative interpretative dimension is incorporated through policy papers, trade reports and academic literature that offer the required depth. This hybrid yet dataled methodology reflects the demands of masterly level research – one which requires both statistical rigor and critical interpretation (Saunders et al., 2019). Data Collection It is based entirely on secondary sources, systematically selected for their credibility, reliability and relevance to the research question. It consisted of three steps during the collection. SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 44 1. Identification of credible databases and organizations: These include multilateral agencies (FAO, WTO, ITC, World Bank, OECD, UNCTAD), regional trade organizations, and reputable research institutes such as FiBL and IFOAM. 2. Extraction of relevant datasets: For example, FAO statistics on agricultural yields and input costs, WTO and ITC trade data on organic exports and tariffs, and World Bank datasets on agricultural employment and rural livelihoods. 3. Supplementation with academic literature and policy reports: To complement statistical data, policy documents from the Uzbek Ministry of Agriculture, reports by ADB, and peer-reviewed journal articles were reviewed to contextualize the numbers. Data collection was focused on time series (for instance, growth of exports between 2010–2022) and comparative (organics market shares across countries) data. This two-pronged approach enables the study to analyze both historical developments as well as the comparative standing of Uzbekistan in the global organic economy. Data Overview The size of the worldwide organic economy is now so large that it significantly impacts the structure, prices and standards of agri-food trade. According to the most comprehensive global analysis of organic food and drink ever published, retail sales of organic food and drink topped between €135–136 billion in 2022–2023, and organic farmland worldwide increased to 99 million hectares covering a total of ≈188 countries in 2023. Europe and North America continue to be the primary sources of consumer spend; however, the expansion of production is being increasingly replicated in emerging suppliers, crucial for countries dependent on trade such as Uzbekistan to translate agronomic comparative advantages into brandable, premium niches (such as dried fruits, fresh stone fruit, table grapes). These headline numbers are not abstract: SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 45 they shape the addressable market and the certification regimes with which Uzbekistan has to comply in order to compete (for example, EU Regulation 2018/848 and associated implementing rules); and they inform the pricing latitude – the endurance of price premia – that underpins the economic-efficiency case for organic transitions. Global organic market at a glance (latest public benchmarks) Indicator 2022 2023 Source Global retail sales of organic food & drink €135 bn ≈€136 bn FiBL/IFOAM 2024; IFOAM 2025 update Countries with organic production ≈188 ≈188 FiBL/IFOAM Farmland under organic management ≈96 m ha ≈99 m ha FiBL/IFOAM Dominant import market regime shaping access EU Reg. 2018/848 + e-COI via TRACES — EUR-Lex; European Commission (trade) Interpretatively, these are two implications for the export-oriented strategy. For one, market depth is available to absorb incremental Uzbek production if it is certified and traceable. Second, strict regulation is a moat that both increases the price of entry, and once survived, defends margins through brandable compliance. This is why the remainder of the analysis then focuses where Uzbekistan can scale meet and preimmunize (without violating them through logistics, rejection losses, or inconsistent quality). Agriculture and rural development SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 46 Uzbekistan’s Export Data and Trends Uzbekistan already has a substantial horticultural export base with (fresh or dried) grapes and (fresh and dried) apricots in the ascendant. In 2023, Uzbekistan exported $167 million worth of grapes (HS 0806, fresh or dried), with Russia ($18 m), and China (~$12 m) as the lead markets; that trend continued into 2024, with grape exports supposedly doubling in quantity and value, 219,200 tons and $186.2 million, the national statistics agency as noted by industry media. With respect to dried categories: dried apricots (HS 081310) totaled $ 19.76 m in 2023 with Turkey ($ 4.26 m), China ($ 4.25 m) and Russia ($ 2.73 m) leading the market. ITC-driven aggregations further reveal that raisin (dried grape) exports are expected to be diversified across Kazakhstan, China, Russia, Turkey and the UAE in 2018–2022, pointing to commercial relationships in markets where certified organic imports are also sourced from peer suppliers (e.g., Turkey). These flows indicate that there are already existing trade infrastructure buyers and product knowledge which can be reorientated to certified-organic lines if the non-compliance issues are resolved. SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 47 Snapshot of Uzbekistan’s relevant export lines Product (HS) Year Quantity Value (US$) Top destinations (value) Source Grapes (fresh or dried, 0806) 2023 — $167,000,000 Russia, Kazakhstan, China OEC (country profile) Grapes (fresh, all) 2024 219,200 t $186,200,000 Noted as total exports FreshPlaza citing Statistics Agency Dried apricots (081310) 2023 12,999,500 kg $19,764,320 Türkiye, China, Russia, Israel, Iraq WITS/UN Comtrade Raisins (080620) 2022 — (countrylevel multimarket mix) Kazakhstan, China, Russia, Türkiye, UAE ITC-based roadmap table Two macroeconomic considerations sharpen interpretation. First, agriculture still represents a major component of the Uzbek economy (around 18.3% of GDP in 2024), so even small margin uplifts at scale can have non-trivial income and employment impacts. Second, the current export mix is biased towards conventional produce exported to regional markets using residue-control regimes of differing compliance stringency; to access higher-value markets characterised by EU-grade conformity and electronic Certificates of Inspection (e-COI) on TRACES would also require organizational upgrades (group certification, internal control systems, residue-risk management) that exceed farm-level practice. World Bank Open Data Agriculture & Rural Development SCHOLAR ISSN: 2181-4147 VOLUME 3 | ISSUE 9 | 2025 https://t.me/openscholar Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Oktyabr, 2025 48 Results The results confirm that the global market demand for organic products is strongly increasing, which is not a bad condition for a prospective entry of the Uzbekistan into the world market. As mentioned before, in 2022 EU-27 imported 2.87 million tons of organic agri-food products, 3.8% more than in 2021 (European Commission, 2023). Among the imports, dried fruits such as raisins, figs and apricots are an increasing segment as US consumers prefer healthy snacking options. This is especially true for Uzbekistan which has a comparative advantage in the production of dried fruit. ITC data (2023) shows that Turkey exported $255 million of organic dried fruits to the EU in 2022, mainly raisins and apricots. This example shows what is attainable for Uzbekistan by filling certification gaps. As of 2023, Uzbekistan exported $19.7 million worth of dried apricots (≈13,000 tons) and $167 million of grapes (fresh/dried) but they were predominantly going to the conventional markets (WITS, 2023). If only 30% of dried apricot exports had been certified organic, Uzbekistan would have generated a further US$ 12–15 million in revenue, assuming 25–40% premium in the EU for organic dried fruits (FAO, 2021).