Submission to the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy: Pitfalls of Adopting Temperature Neutrality as a Climate Target

Dr Colm Duffy & Dr David Styles School of Biological and Chemical Sciences University of Galway [email protected] [email protected] 11th September 2025 To the Clerk and Members of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy Dear Committee Members, We recently led a peer-reviewed study, published in Environmental Research Letters, examining the use of “Temperature Neutrality” (TN) to set national climate targets, using Ireland as a case study. Given your Committee’s forthcoming recommendation to Government on this matter, and based upon extensive peer-reviewed evidence we have produced over the past seven years specifically evaluating pathways towards a climate neutral agriculture and land sector in Ireland, we set out why we think adopting TN would mark a serious policy misdirection – and could set back the development of a fit-for-purpose national land use strategy by a generation. In the accompanying brief, we draw upon an extensive body of evidence, alongside experience in the Carbon Budget working group reporting to the Climate Change Advisory Council, and as authors on the Land Use Review Phase 2 report, to highlight three core concerns about the prospective adoption of TN, which would: Undermine global food security, by appropriating methane “emission rights” from food insecure countries who desperately need to grow their own agriculture sectors to meet basic needs. Misdirect national policy away from action to offset Ireland’s agri-food sector emissions indigenously, and deviate from the EU net-zero target, exposing the sector to huge reputational risks, and exposing Irish tax-payers to staggering compliance costs under EU emissions regulations. Squander substantial opportunities to build CO2 negative bio-based industries that could create new revenue for farmers and rural Ireland, whilst offsetting agri-food emissions. The choice of Ireland's climate target is hugely important, and it will have lasting impacts on our landscape, lives and livelihoods for generations to come. Given the time lag between actions in the land sector (e.g. afforestation) and climate benefits, and slow progress implementing action in the land sector, adoption of TN may seem politically expedient to some. But our research shows that it will not stand up to international scrutiny, and diverts attention from critical climate action associated with diversification of land use - diversification that could support employment and hedge risks in an increasingly uncertain world. There are options for Ireland to develop vibrant agriculture and land sectors that deliver large amounts of food whilst being part of the solution to our climate and biodiversity crises, but these options require a frank, open-minded discussion about real choices facing the next generation of farmers. This requires political honesty and leadership on the challenges we face. Dismissing the scale of the challenge through adoption of a flawed and weak climate target sets climate, agriculture and land use policy up to fail. Ireland has long demonstrated leadership on justice, human rights, and commitment on climate action. Irish farmers have long demonstrated a pragmatic ability to adapt to evolving market and regulatory environments. With appropriate vision and courage from our political leaders, Ireland can draw upon these proud traditions to deliver climate solutions. But that must be guided by a robust and credible climate target. At this critical moment, we urge the Committee to recommend ambition and clarity. Yours sincerely, Dr Colm Duffy School of Biological and Chemical Sciences University of Galway Dr David Styles School of Biological and Chemical Sciences University of Galway