The Future of Energy - Water - Food Systems in 2050

The Future of Energy - Water - Food Systems in 2050 Report from the Joint Foresight Workshop of SolarHub and ECHO Excellence Hub Projects September 2025 Odysseas Spyroglou 1 Introduction & Context The Excellence Hubs Joint Workshop brought together representatives from seven Horizon Europe-funded Excellence Hub (ExHub) projects in Ioannina, Greece, on 2 July 2025. Hosted by SolarHub and ECHO, two projects under the EC’s Excellence Hubs call, the workshop explored the future of energy, water, and food systems by 2050 through co-design and strategic foresight exercises. Participants scanned trends, identified uncertainties, mapped key actors and infrastructures, and developed scenario pathways for Europe’s sustainability journey towards 2050. Connecting Innovation Ecosystems Excellence Hubs are an EU initiative designed to strengthen regional innovation ecosystems by fostering collaboration between academia, industry, public authorities, and civil society — the quadruple helix model. SolarHub and ECHO, the co-hosting projects, both focus on solar energy innovation and energy communities, connecting ecosystems from Türkiye, Greece, and Portugal, with additional expertise contributed by partners from Germany, Spain, Belgium, and Ireland. What the Presentation Covers Insights from collaborative foresight exercises . Key trends, drivers, and uncertainties shaping the energy-waterfood nexus. Four alternative 2050 scenarios, built using Jim Dator’s Futures Framework (Growth, Discipline, Transformation, Collapse). Strategic recommendations for shaping policies, innovations, and governance frameworks. 2 Table of Contents 3 Disclaimers 04 Projects at a Glance 05 Lessons from the Past 06 What is Foresight? 06 Focal Question 11 Key Events 15 Drivers of Change 16 Scenarios of the Future 19 Key Stakeholders 12 Critical Infrastructures 13 Recommendations 24 Workshop Methodology 25 Workshop Facilitation, Analysis & Report Odysseas Spyroglou, IDI R&I Lead, Certified Foresight Strategist [email protected] https://www.linkedin.com/in/ospyroglou/ https://generalistpapers.substack.com Use of GenAI - Disclaimer Generative AI tools were used to support the preparation of this material. All analytical conclusions and scenario narratives were compiled by the author. ChatGPT was used to extract and analyse text from scanned boards and workshop outputs, and to enhance language clarity of the finished texts. Gamma was used to structure and format the visual presentation. Scenarios, strategic insights, and descriptions were authored by the workshop facilitator based on the notes and ideas of the workshop participants. Icons for Human Machine Collaboration are developed by Dubai Future Foundation. Copyright © 2025 by Odysseas Spyroglou is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes . NoDerivatives — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits. 4 SolarHub & ECHO Projects at a Glance Funded by the European Union The SolarHub and ECHO projects are funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency (REA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. A Greek-Turkish Solar Energy Excellence Hub to Advance the European Green Deal GA: Project 101086110 — SolarHub Excellence Hub to connect and scale up 5 Greek & Turkish Solar Energy innovation ecosystems in a single, hybrid, cross-border, interconnected Excellence Hub dedicated to Solar Energy applications with emphasis on Agriculture/Agri-food sector. 21 Partners: TR, GR, IE, DE, BE 4 Years: 2023 - 2026 Energy Communities Excellence Hubs: catalyzing energy innovation ecosystems GA: Project 101185725 — ECHO Excellence hub in Türkiye, Greece, and Portugal to foster innovation ecosystems, empower stakeholders, and implement sustainable, resilient and inclusive Energy Communities (EC) that accelerate the EU's energy transition goals. 24 Partners: TR, GR, PT, ES, IE, DE 4 Years: 2025 - 2028 5 The future was never easy to predict 1894 The Great horse manure crisis "In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure" 1923 Cars in the streets of major cities Automotive industry eliminated one of the biggest challenges of big cities infrastructure. Lessons from the past One great example to demonstrate the difficulty of predicting the future is the 1894 Manure Crisis, when experts predicted that cities would be buried under 9 feet of horse manure in the forthcoming years. The solution came from an industry that did not exist when the predictions were made (although Henry Ford had already introduced his Quadricycle in 1896). By 1923, the rise of automobiles made the whole discussion about horses obsolete. 6 Known Knowns and Unknown Unknowns Donald H. Rumsfeld, Department of Defense News Briefing, 12 February 2002 Known knowns = things we know we know. Known unknowns = we know there are things we do not know. Unknown unknowns = what we don't know we don't know. Lessons from the past Εxamples of previous page show how the future is full of "unknown unknowns", things we don't even know we don't know. This idea of "known knowns", "known unknowns", and "unknown unknowns" was articulated by Donald Rumsfeld in 2002. 7 We live in a VUCA world Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous Public debates heat up and shift rapidly Policy outcomes are hard to predict Issues are interconnected Issues have multiple interpretations Change Accelerates Future is unpredictable World is interconnected No one single way Lessons from the past The term VUCA was coined by the U.S. Army War College in the late 1980s to describe the post–Cold War strategic environment of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. 8 So what is Foresight? Foresight is looking into the future in a structured way. It's not predicting what will happen, but exploring what might happen so that we can make better choices today. The process of systematically identifying, exploring, and understanding the future. A strategic tool helping us to make better decisions about the future. Foresight can help teams, companies, and organizations to: Scan their internal and external environment Identify emerging trends and opportunities Anticipate risks and challenges Develop resilient strategies to adapt to change 9 Drivers of Change: Megatrends to Weak signals What forces are shaping change in the nexus of Energy-Water-Food? What trends affect our system today? What early signals and disruptions can we identify? Climate Change & Environmental Impact (-) Increased conflicts over resources, heatwaves, depletion of water, rising droughts, salinisation, reduced crop productivity, food insecurity. Geopolitical Instability & Global Economic Shifts (-) Rising energy and food prices, inflation, disrupted supply chains, inequality growth. (+) Opportunities from localised energy systems. Technological Acceleration (-) Increased resource use, uneven digital infrastructure access. (+) Automation, digitisation, smart grids, improved connectivity. Urbanisation and Land Use Transformation (-) Urban heat island effects, microclimate shifts, higher energy demand for cooling, loss of agricultural land, resources scarcity. Demographic Shifts and Aging Population (-) Aging population stresses social security and healthcare. Reduces economy vitality. (+) Potential for silver economy opportunities. Environmental Awareness & Energy Transition (-) Backlash due to energy insecurity. (+) Growth of clean technologies, improved recycling, sustainable production. Shift to net-zero energy, sustainable resource use. 16 A deeper look into Trends & Weak Signals Trend = long-term change moving in a clearly identifiable direction. Weak signal = event or phenomenon that can be considered a first expression of change or a new trend in development. Politics Disruption of Global Order (US, Russia, China, BRICS, EU). EU Strategic Autonomy (Energy Resilience). EU funding for key initiatives (Green Deal, Fit-for-55). International climate talks but poor commitment (e.g., Paris Agreement, carbon markets). Rise of Populism and Authoritarianism. Polarisation. Increased danger of climate migration. Economy Shifting global economic power (EU, US, China). Disruption of globalisation and supply chains. Shift to local, decentralised energy (microgrids, community) Circular economy (reducing waste). Funds for climate adaptation. Sustainable finance and ESG standards. Inflation and unstable energy prices. Green hydrogen market growth. Digital currencies and blockchain. Society Population changes (aging, migration). Health-driven social changes (aging, pandemics). Social inclusion, unity & equality vs. division, polarisation. Urban growth and mega-cities. Local initiatives and community focus. Public involvement in science and decision-making. Opportunities in an aging society (silver economy). Sustainable tourism and reliance on it. Technology AI-led changes, need for AI Governance (Ethics). Secure Digital infrastructure (smart grids, IoT, data models). Electric transport (EVs, hydrogen cars). Integrating renewable energy (solar, hydrogen, wind). Digital models for resource management. Biotechnology for food and water Breakthroughs in hydrogen, nuclear, and fusion energy Quantum computing and rapid advancements Environment Climate change and extreme weather impacts. Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse. Protecting marine ecosystems (Blue Economy) Water stress, desertification, and salinisation. Carbon capture and storage (CCUS). Resource scarcity (water, food, rare minerals). Floating solar, agrivoltaics, and hybrid farming. Reducing urban heat islands. Nature-based solutions (rewilding, restoration). 17 The less prominent trends and weak signals appear at the bottom of every list in grey. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Globalisation & Trade Realignments Shapes resource flows, knowledge sharing, and competition for technologies. 7 8 Health Crises & Pandemics Redefine mobility, production systems, and preparedness strategies. 9 Secondary & Emerging Forces Economic Disruptions & Recessions Influence affordability, investment in renewables, and societal resilience. Migration Flows & Displacement Redistributes population pressure on resources, cities, and rural infrastructures. Biodiversity Shifts & Loss Affects ecosystem resilience, food systems, and natural resource regeneration. Technological Leapfrogging Enables rapid transition scenarios but carries adoption and equity risks. Tourism Dynamics & Dependencies Interconnects energy, water, and food needs in highly sensitive economies. Industrial Disruptions Affect energy-food-water security and accelerate diversification needs. Political Agendas & Governance Dynamics Influence regulatory divergence, subsidies, and coordination between regions. Leap in Computing & Quantum Innovations Boosts modelling, forecasting, and real-time system optimisation. 10 18 Scenarios of the Future - Our world in 2050 The following 4 scenaria are descriptive narratives based on the key points and notes defined by the audience. Each team explored one of the four future scenarios: Growth, Collapse, Discipline, Transformation. 19 Cloud Atlas Developed world powered by innovation experiences growth. Political Harmony Global stability achieved through historic alliances and collaborative governance. Energy Abundance A fully decarbonised, 100% renewable world where energy is accessible to all. Social Progress Inclusiveness, equality, and wellbeing drive a prosperous, participatory global society. After decades of crises and fragmentation, the world started to unite around the shared purpose to restore balance between people, technology, and the planet. A series of UN-led summits throughout the 2030s sparked a turning point in global politics. These negotiations culminate in the landmark COP-50 Agreement, where every major economy committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The historic breakthrough in Nuclear Fusion achieved jointly by USA and China, created a wave of scientific and political cooperation, pushing nations to join collective governance frameworks and work together to solve the big challenges of the future. The energy transition has reshaped the global economy and today the total energy used in the planet is 90% renewable with a plan to reach 100% in the next 10 years. Energy democracy has allowed local communities to generate, store, and share clean power through decentralised microgrids and circular economy models minimise waste, transforming industries into fully recyclable systems. New massive green investments create millions of new jobs, driving innovation while ensuring economic security for all. Food and water systems undergo a quiet revolution: precision agriculture, vertical farming, and lab-grown proteins deliver sustainable nutrition at scale. Integrated water recycling and desalination systems secure access for even the driest regions. Hunger and water scarcity, once defining challenges of the 21st century, become solved problems. Innovations in carbon capture, sustainable materials, and biotechnology accelerate restoration efforts. The COP-50 framework sets off the largest ecosystem restoration projects in history, reviving biodiversity and rehabilitating degraded lands. Rising global temperatures stabilise, extreme weather events diminish, and planetary stewardship becomes humanity’s shared responsibility. By mid-century, the developed world has embraced abundance, collaboration, and resilience. However, the rest of the world is still left behind and despite ambitious announcements the actual measures and support towards less developed nations is still minimal. Africa, Latin America and certain counties of Asia are still facing major challenges. The world is progressing but not equally. It seems that this is the biggest challenge of the next century. 20 Black Mirror A world consumed by unrest, lack of resources and systemic collapse. Cascading Crises Climate disasters, economic collapses and failing governance in a downward spiral. Fragmented Societies Rising inequality, forced migrations, and violent unrest erode trust and cohesion. Survival over Progress Resource competition and institutional disintegration. A struggle for basic needs. By 2050, decades of political inaction, unchecked exploitation, and deepening inequality have created a perfect storm of systemic collapse. Climate instability ravages the planet with terrible wildfires, catastrophic floods, prolonged droughts, and deadly heatwaves. Water scarcity sparks regional conflicts, while desertification and soil infertility cripple global agriculture. Biodiversity loss accelerates unchecked, and nature itself becomes totally unstable. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts erupt across multiple fronts. Wars, corruption, and authoritarian regimes dominate, while international institutions like the UN and EU fail to maintain cohesion or coordinate responses. Trust between nations dissolves, and resource nationalism replaces cooperation. In many regions, governments collapse entirely, giving rise to lawless territories controlled by militias, mega-corporations, or criminal networks. The global economy seems beyond repair. Supply chains collapse, driving hyperinflation and permanent shortages of food, water, and energy. Black markets flourish, trading in survival essentials like energy credits, clean water access, and nutrition packs. Wealth concentrates among a handful of elites protected in gated communities, while the vast majority struggle for daily existence. Societies disintegrate and rising inequality and population displacement trigger mass migrations, fuelling tensions between collapsing states and relatively stable “green zones.” These heavily protected enclaves, powered by renewables and smart grids, are safe havens for the privileged few, but unreachable for most. Cyberattacks in critical infrastructures and financial systems are daily. AI-driven misinformation deepens polarisation, diminishing trust in governance. By mid-century, the energy-water-food nexus becomes the most precious resource and the epicentre of conflict. Nations hoard resources, corporations guard private reserves, and citizens fight over what remains. Environmental tipping points have been crossed, and without trust, solidarity, or effective governance, humanity retreats into survival mode. The world is defined by scarcity, instability, and mistrust. Progress has stalled and survival instincts dominate. Isolated islands of resilience exist, but for most people the future is hard, uncertain, and fragile. 21 GATTACA A world of discipline and strong governance. Centralised Governance Strong centralised government control and strict regulations on energy, food, and water to maintain stability. Sustainability Above All Climate resilience drives every policy, reshaping economies and societies under a unified vision of survival. Society above the individual Civil liberties are limited in favour of the common good. People accept trade-offs for security, stability, climate adaptation. By the mid-21st century, continuous climate disasters, resource scarcity, and geopolitical instability push humanity to its limits. Fires, floods, hurricanes, and rising seas devastate ecosystems and cities, creating devastating economic losses even for the developed world. In the Global South, entire regions collapse under unmanageable shocks, triggering mass migrations and humanitarian crises. Facing civil unrest, polarised societies, and failing national leadership, a new global governance order emerges. EU completed its latest enlargement that accepted every single European country and a significant constitutional change that transferred further powers to Brussels and allowed for a more flexible decision making mechanism. The United Nations, restructured after decades of no real power or relevance, and introduced Supreme Security Council of ten permanent members, including the EU, China, India, and the US, to coordinate planetary priorities. Under this new framework, scientific councils, AI advisory boards, and civil society institutions collaborate to impose strict regulations on energy use, food systems, and water resources. Global citizenship gains momentum as an idea, but its meaning remains unclear as to what responsibilities and rights it brings. The transformation comes at a cost. Many governments exploit climate regulations to justify restrictive policies, weakening civil liberties. China, India, and Russia openly revoke voting rights, while even liberal democracies like the US, Canada, Australia, and the EU introduce unprecedented controls once considered unthinkable. Citizens, facing climate chaos and systemic scarcity, reluctantly accept limitations on privacy, freedom of movement, and personal consumption in exchange for survival. Economies are digitised, centralised, and governed by planetary sustainability metrics. Traditional currencies vanish, replaced by a global “Zero Carbon Equivalent” credit system that measures every transaction against its climate impact. Super-intelligent AI agents are integrated everywhere and monitor flows, adjusting exchange rates and enforcing consumption quotas in real-time. Energy systems are fully integrated within global transition plans. Massive investments in renewables, hydrogen, and energy storage create powerful infrastructures, though oversight remains contested and accountability unclear. Water security frameworks allocate resources across borders through binding global treaties, while advanced desalination and recycling systems reduce local scarcity. Food production undergoes a radical transformation: vertical farms, lab-grown proteins, and zero-waste supply chains dominate, achieving efficiency but at the expense of traditional farming cultures. Humanity realised that it was in the brick of collapse and took drastic measures. Unfortunately, the price for decades of inactivity and indecision, was individual freedoms. Societies are now disciplined, with optimised economies and safer stable ecosystems, but innovation is tightly controlled, diversity limited, and personal freedom diminished. The planet survived, yet the future looks more and more authoritarian sparking discontent. 22 Interstellar Transformative innovation reshapes society and economy. Decentralisation Governance Power shifts from centralised governments to networked community-driven governance and platform states. Science Unleashed Breakthroughs in AI, biotech, and energy create a new wave of transformative general-purpose technologies (GPTs). Regeneration & Engagement Economies, societies, and ecosystems evolve into actively regenerative systems, securing resilience and prosperity. After the disruptions of the 2020s with polarisation, broken supply chains, and accelerating de-globalisation, nations struggled to enforce centralised control but failed. Civil unrests pushed national governments to relinquish more power to regional and local authorities creating new federated governance models. Governments now act more as facilitators rather than regulators, coordinating and negotiating rather than imposing top-down policies. Decision-making lays today with a complex network of regional and local authorities, energy communities, AI councils, and citizen assemblies. Institutions like the EU and UN still exist, they provide guiding ethical frameworks for AI, climate adaptation, and planetary resource sharing rather than direct enforcement. The economy has shifted away from extraction and towards regeneration. Decentralised circular economies dominate, powered by tokenised micro-markets for energy, water, and food credits, allocated dynamically by AI-driven pricing models. Corporations survive only through co-ownership partnerships with communities, sharing infrastructures like solar-hydrogen grids, biotech farms, and vertical food systems. Traditional GDP metrics are irrelevant. Prosperity is now defined by an indicator factoring resilience, well-being, and planetary health monitored with the help of Autonomous AI Agents. Society has become more participatory, collaborative, and fully augmented by digitisation and AI. Citizens act as co-producers, generating energy, recycling water, and growing food locally. AI tutors power lifelong learning ecosystems, preparing individuals for adaptive, fluid futures where education never stops. Ethical algorithms ensure governance remains inclusive, while breakthroughs in biotechnology tackle food security and health inequality, fostering greater social cohesion. Science and technology provide the platform for this transformation. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has not yet been achieved but most researchers believe it is only a matter of a few years. Highly competent and advanced AI systems are everywhere. AI-powered digital twins simulate entire ecosystems, lab-grown proteins, bioengineered crops, and carbon-neutral desalination revolutionise food and water systems, and renewable-powered microgrids provide resilient, autonomous energy everywhere. Sustainability has evolved beyond mitigation into planetary regeneration. Climate-positive infrastructures absorb more carbon than they emit, and bioengineering projects restore biodiversity at scale. Despite the achievements, there are significant challenges. Society is advancing fast without enforceable governance frameworks and safety regulations. The scientific breakthroughs were accelerated thanks to deregulation, however, as the world moves away from the existential threat of a climate disaster, AI is taking over more and more aspects of peoples lives with little oversight and even less governance. As many scientists warn humanity may soon face another existential threat in the form of a Super-Intelligence. 23 Key Recommendations How can we address the challenges and better prepare for the future? The slide is a consolidation of the key ideas and policy recommendations of the audience. Decentralised Energy & Resource Systems Community-scale microgrids (solar, hydrogen), AI-driven water recycling, and integrated local food production (vertical farming) ensure energy, water, and food sovereignty, reducing dependency on fragile global supply chains. AI-powered Resource Management Platforms Digital twin platforms simulate energy-water-food interactions, and predictive AI tools anticipate disasters (fires, floods, droughts), enabling real-time optimisation and climateresilient decision-making. Circular Economy Marketplaces Resource-sharing platforms for communities to exchange surplus resources, alongside zero-waste supply chain hubs, accelerate waste elimination, improve resource efficiency, and build local economic resilience. Next-Generation Education & Skills Platforms Futures literacy hubs and AI-assisted lifelong learning ecosystems focus on sustainability, green technologies, and digital transformation, equipping citizens and policymakers with skills to adapt and co-create solutions. Collaborative Governance & Innovation Services Participatory foresight platforms and innovation sandboxes enable citizens, researchers, and industries to co-design policies and solutions for local challenges, strengthening social cohesion and ensuring inclusive transitions. 24 25 Annex Methodology of the Workshop The workshop followed a common foresight methodology. Audience was divided into groups which collaboratively explored the topic through the following steps. Teams were brainstorming and recording their ideas with the help of structured templates to facilitate discussions and keep the audience focused.