CITIZEN-SDSS: Guidelines for conducting co-design-scenario workshops in the Philippines

CITIZEN-SDSS PROJECT: Guidelines for conducting co-design scenario workshops in the Philippines Melvin Lippe, Myrna Ramos, Jerika Rivero, Jouel Taggueg, Cecilia A. Mangabat, Renz S. Come, Prince Asare Authors affiliation Melvin Lippe Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany Myrna Ramos College of Forestry and Environmental Management, Isabela State University, Cabagan, Philippines Jerika Rivero College of Forestry and Environmental Management, Isabela State University, Cabagan, Philippines Jouel Taggueg College of Forestry and Environmental Management, Isabela State University, Cabagan, Philippines Renz S. Come Department of Forest Science, Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Science, Visayas State University, Baybay, Philippines Cecilia Mangabat College of Forestry and Environmental Management, Isabela State University, Cabagan, Philippines Prince Asare Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany Suggested citation: Lippe, M., Ramos, M., Jerika, R., Taggueg, J., Come, R. S., Cecilia, M., & Asare, P. (2025). CITIZEN-SDSS PROJECT: Guidelines for conducting co-design-scenario workshops in the Philippines (Version 1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17235860 Project consortium Thünen Institute of Forestry Leuschnerstr. 91 21031 Hamburg | Germany Forest Foundation Philippines Makati City Philippines Isabela State University Cabagan, Isabela province Philippines Visayas State University Baybay, Leyte province Philippines Funding Velux Stiftung Kirchgasse 2 CH-8001 Zürich | Switzerland Grant ID: 1881 Contact and Homepage E-Mail: [email protected] Homepage: https://www.thuenen.de/en/institutes/forestry/projects-1/citizen-sdss-1 Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ Table of Contents 1 Background CITIZEN-SDSS Project 1 2 Objective of Co-design scenario workshops 1 2.1 Purpose and general features 2 2.2 Specific objectives 2 2.3 Scope of target participants at landscape-level 2 3 Organizational matters 3 3.1 Venue setting 3 3.2 Workshop materials 3 3.3 Team composition 3 4 Workshop day 1 4 4.1 Opening session 4 4.2 Session: Context setting and presentation of MCA results 4 4.3 Session: Co-creation and scenario development 5 4.3.1 Present and future causes/ drivers of land use change 5 4.3.2 Co-designing scenarios of future land use change 7 4.4 Reflection day 1 and outlook day 2 9 5 Workshop day 2 10 5.1 Opening Session 10 5.2 Session: Mapping future areas of change 10 5.3 Session: Back casting intervention pathway(s) 11 5.4 Session: Group presentations of mapping and back casting activities 12 5.5 Closing program 12 6 References 13 Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ i List of Tables Table 1: Summary of target stakeholder groups, suggested representation and rationale of participation .......... 2 Table 2: Overview of Barangay pair of study landscapes based on cropland/ forest land cover area NAMRIA ..... 5 Table 3: Scoring approach of perceived potential future causes/ factors of land use change ................................ 6 Table 4: Future cause/driver Indicator sheet to assess their duration, influence on land area, impact on ES ....... 7 Table 5: Summary scenario types and storyline of Group 1 (Municipality) and Group 2 (Barangay-level) ............ 9 Table 6: Layout back casting for hybrid scenario to describe actions and responsible actors per time horizon .. 12 Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 1 1 Background CITIZEN-SDSS Project The remaining Philippine forest landscapes cover around 24% of the country's total land area. These landscapes are characterised by a high level of endemism, yet they are simultaneously threatened by deforestation and forest degradation, which has long-lasting effects on the ecosystem services they provide to society. Naturebased solutions (NBS) encompass a wide range of measures, such as forest conservation, reforestation, and restoration, and can support local livelihoods through community woodlots, agroforestry, and other initiatives, including living fences and riverbank vegetation. NBS have the potential to safeguard the Philippines' remaining forest landscapes and support national wood demand, which is currently met by industrial timber plantations and imports. The CITIZEN-SDSS project aims to inform decision-making to support the development of long-term land use and forest management strategies that utilise nature-based solutions to sustain local livelihoods and ecosystem services. The project focuses on four study sites and their surrounding provinces - see for further details on study landscape: Asare and Lippe (2025). The project combines participatory approaches and various forms of stakeholder interaction, such as key informant interviews, household interviews and focus group discussions, with geographic information systems (GIS) and spatiotemporal modelling. The latter can also be referred to as spatial decision support systems (SDSS). The project develops methodological approaches to make projections on long-term sustainable forest and land use management pathways, supporting local livelihoods and fostering nature-based solutions at Barangay level. This is important because decision-making processes require contextsensitive approaches that are also grounded in scientific rigour. 2 Objective of Co-design scenario workshops This document provides guidance on how to organise and facilitate a co-design scenario workshop at a landscape level (i.e., a watershed or municipality in the Philippines) for the purposes of the CITIZEN-SDSS project. The four landscape-level workshops are followed by two regional-level workshops, which build on the outcomes of the former and, in principle, follow a similar sequence. Co-design workshops, which are a form of participatory land-use planning, can help to catalyse stakeholder engagement and improve governance in rural landscapes (Do et al., 2021). Conversely, a lack of participation and acknowledgement of customary landuse practices can inhibit the successful implementation of current and future land-use plans, policies, and regulations aimed at sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity in the long term. In many countries, conventional, centralised, top-down land-use planning approaches have been widely practised with limited success due to a lack of flexibility in adapting to local circumstances (Bourgoin et al., 2012; Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010). For the purposes of the CITIZEN-SDSS project, the participatory co-design workshops draw on components of the 'Land-Use Planning for Multiple Ecosystem Services' (LUMES) framework (Dewi et al., 2015), as well as other forms of participatory appraisal (Bodin et al., 2011; Hauck et al., 2016; Lippe et al., 2011; Lippe et al., 2017). Research ethics review and safeguards for data protection and confidentiality are applied, including free, prior and informed consent (FPIC), during all phases of co-design and stakeholder-related interactions. The default LUMES framework has been adapted to meet the needs of CITIZEN-SDSS. This includes the following main steps: (i) compilation of current local and regional land-use issues and perspectives on current land-use plans; (ii) participatory development of baseline, local and regional scenarios, with the latter adopting future land-use interventions preferred by local or regional stakeholders; (iii) assessment of the impact of the developed scenarios on the ecosystem services of the landscape using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. This framework is used to explore potential trade-offs, conflicting demands and synergies of current and future land and resource uses together with stakeholders. Back casting exercises are used to set targets for the future landscape and propose interventions to achieve them (van Asselt et al., 2010). After agreeing on common goals, workshop participants are split into Barangay and Municipality groups to formulate a future scenario, including the interventions, the location of each intervention, the actors involved, and the policy support needed for the Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 2 interventions. Land-use maps and other materials are provided to stimulate group discussion. Participants are informed that the impacts of the suggested interventions are evaluated after the workshop using a spatiotemporal modelling framework (project phase 3). The modelling results are presented at feedback consultations and workshops (project phase 4) to discuss lessons learned and the implications for long-term environmental and land use planning in the local or regional context, respectively. 2.1 Purpose and general features The overall aim of the co-design workshops is to develop local and regional narratives of future land use patterns and scenarios based on interventions defined by participating stakeholders. Documenting the co-design process and the actions of certain stakeholders during the participatory workshops allows for an in-depth analysis of the type of information or knowledge product (e.g., maps, qualitative or quantitative indicators or visuals) that stakeholders perceive as useful for future land use planning. This concept of knowledge products is lacking in many co-design settings and is often neglected by government agencies when conducting land use planning workshops. The workshops follow FPIC principles and are organised as two-day events in the four study landscapes and as one-day events at the regional level in the study regions of Eastern Visayas and Cagayan Valley. Participants comprise 10–20 stakeholders at the landscape level and 5–10 stakeholders at the regional level. Those participating at the landscape level will be divided into barangay and municipality-level sub-groups (see section 2.3 below for further details). Subsequently, the total number of co-design workshops refers to n= 6, with 1 per study landscape: Balasig watershed, Penablanca Municipality, Maasin City, Silago Municipality (n=4), and 1 per study region: Southern Leyte, and the parts of Southern Cagayan Province and Northern Isabela Province – stretching from the Municipalities of Penablanca and Tumuaini (n=2). 2.2 Specific objectives ● Co-creating future land use scenarios reflecting diverse stakeholder visions. ● Assessing ecosystem services (ES) trade-offs and synergies under different scenario settings. ● Identifying areas for nature-based solutions (NBS) as priority intervention zones (e.g., mangrove rehabilitation, agroforestry buffers, riparian restoration) that can deliver the largest ES gains and climate-resilience co-benefits. ● Building consensus on a shortlist of NBS interventions for integration into the Municipal Environment and Natural Resources Office (MENRO) work plan and the comprehensive land use plan (CLUP) revisions. ● Using back casting exercises to set specific, actionable landscape and ES targets for 2040, and outline interventions in how to reach them. 2.3 Scope of target participants at landscape-level ● Local government officials (e.g., municipality planning, environment and natural resources, agriculture, disaster and risk management), ● Barangay captain and representatives, ● Not considered: Local farmers and villagers (Barangay captains serve as proxy in this case), Youth and Women group leaders. Table 1: Summary of target stakeholder groups, suggested representation and rationale of participation Stakeholder group Suggested representatives Why essential LGU Mayor’s planning team, MENRO, MPDO, MDRRMO, DRRMO Policy alignment & budget leverage Barangay captain and representatives For each study Barangay (n=6 in total per landscape) Place-based insights, legitimacy Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 3 3 Organizational matters 3.1 Venue setting A venue such as a conference room or lecture hall is required that can host 15 to 30 participants, including the workshop team. The venue must be equipped with a HiFi sound system, microphones, WiFi access, sufficient number of tables, chairs and further offering the opportunity for catering, coffee and snacks. 3.2 Workshop materials Projector or TV screen, workshop kit for each participant (workshop program, name tag, A4 colored map printouts, booklet or paper sheets to take notes), sheet attendance list, sheet written consent of each participant to confirm (or not) that workshop is recorded (video and audio) and to be used for internal project purposes, homepage and social media, manila paper, tape roll, color markers, meta-cards, pens (see for details session description below), color printer for ad hoc printing needs. Moreover, colored map printouts (n=7) are provided as means of discussion in sites A1 (1x per study area to be shown as wallpaper), A3 (2x per study area) and A4 (n=15 as part of individual participant workshop kit) with the following themes (i-iv builds on: Asare and Lippe 2025; v-vii: builds on: Asare et al. 2025): i. satellite image study landscape with barangay names and boundaries, major roads and rivers, ii. overview of study landscape with barangay names and boundaries, major roads and rivers, and tenurial instruments (e.g., CBFMA, and others according to DENR and LGU data), iii. land cover 2020 according to NAMRIA (2020), iv. forest cover changes (undisturbed forest, deforestation, disturbed forests, forest regrowth) in 2024 according to JRC/ TMF, v. composite ecosystem service index (CESI), highlighting areas with high and low ecosystem service potentials, vi. land degradation sensitivity index (LDSI), highlighting areas with high and low land degradation risk potentials, vii. cold-/hotspots for nature-based solutions. 3.3 Team composition The workshop is ideally composed of: - 1 facilitator who is able to speak Filipino, and if possible relevant local dialects (Cebuano, Ilocano, Ibanag). This person will be the focal point during the workshop and is introducing session objectives, assignments/ tasks to participants, and helps to facilitate the discussions. He/she is supported by the other workshop team members. - 1 moderator who are able to speak Tagalog, and if possible relevant local dialects (Cebuano, Ilocano, Ibanag), to support the facilitator in guiding the discussions and engaging with participants during individual sessions. - 1 team member responsible for documentation, to ensure that all expected outcomes are collected, documented appropriately, and are complete using a checklist. The main task is to crosscheck the expected outcomes with the produced workshop results, to remind the facilitator about missing outcomes if needed, and storing all output products appropriately. - 1 team member responsible for documenting the workshop activities using digital camera and microphone. Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 4 4 Workshop day 1 Total duration: 9am to 4pm; with 5 hours of workshop activities and PPTs 4.1 Opening session Duration: 60 min Materials required: Projector or TV Screen, workshop kit for each participant (workshop program, name tag, A4 colored map printouts, etc.), written consent of each participant to confirm (or not) that workshop is recorded (video and audio) and to be used for internal project purposes, homepage and social media. Objectives: General introduction of CITIZEN-SDSS project and related workshop objectives. The session is divided in 3 sections: • National Anthem/Prayer, Welcome and opening remarks, Ice-breaker/ Energizer (20 min) • PowerPoint (PPT) presentation describing workshop objectives, purpose and approach on future land use scenario planning, and outlining agenda of day 1 and day 2 (10 min) • PPT and QA to remind on concepts of ecosystem services (ES), land degradation (LD), nature-based solutions (NBS) (30 min) 4.2 Session: Context setting and presentation of MCA results Duration: 60 min Materials required: 20 pens, 100 meta cards, TV Screen or projector to show high resolution satellite images and maps, colored map printouts (n=7) 1x in A1, 20x scoring sheet in A4 provided to each participant. Objectives: Setting the scene by presenting findings of key information per study area and MCA maps. The session is divided in 3 sections: 1) PowerPoint (PPT) presentation on currently prevailing land cover types (NAMRIA) and changes (2010-2020), forest change dynamics (2000-2024), perceived ecosystem service supply hotspots (CESI) and land degradation risk areas (LDSI), cold-/hotspots for nature-based solutions (NBS) per study landscape, summary of CLUP aspirations (30 min). 2) Group discussion: Building on PPT, participants discuss key challenges and opportunities on present land uses and forest change dynamics, ecosystem service supply hotspots (CESI), land degradation sensitivity/ risk areas (LDSI), cold-/hotspots for nature-based solutions (NBS) per study landscape (20 min). o Expected outcomes: i. General understanding of participants on present land use and forest change dynamics, ecosystem service supply hotspots (CESI), land degradation sensitivity/ risk areas (LDSI, cold-/hotspots for nature-based solutions (NBS) per study landscape. ii. Group discussion recorded by digital camera, and relevant notes taken. 3) Map evaluation: Participant score (1-disagree, 2-neutral, 3-agree) their comprehension of the CESI, LDSI and NBS maps using a provided A4 evaluation sheet. In case of disagreement, participants write short explanations on the evaluation sheet (10 min). Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 11 based Solutions. The latter has to include the description of the chosen NBS intervention which can be either written on the acetate sheet directly or on separate card instead. Further provided 3D icons that e.g., resemble crop types, houses, etc., and carton chips are offered to each group as other means to visualize the future changes and its drivers/ factors on the colored map printouts, respectively the acetate sheets. A legend has to be written separately on card(s) to explain certain map features and the purpose of a 3D icon or carton chip. This must include background information on certain assumptions, land use change rates that can help readers later to understand the mapped features, areas of change, and identified NBS priority zones. Digital photos are taken to document all produced map features, with at least 1 digital photo taken from a birds-eye view to enabling the digitalization of drawn map features in a GIS software such as QGIS. o Expected outputs: Narratives / storyline description “hybrid” mapped out for each scenario on acetate sheets, overlaid on A3 color map printouts. Legends and further explanations on map features, purpose and use of 3D icons and carton chips are written on cards. Mapped scenario “hybrid” is documented by digital photos of all produced map features, with at least 1 digital photo taken from a birds-eye view to enabling the digitalization of drawn map features in a GIS software. o Group activity 4 outcomes are presented to all participants in afternoon session (after lunch break) and discuss pros and cons of its likely future occurrence. o Each group has to name a speaker. Presentation is recorded by digital camera. 5.3 Session: Back casting intervention pathway(s) Duration: 60 to 90 min Materials required: Projector or TV screen, Workshop kit for each participant (workshop program, name tag, A4 colored map printouts), A3 color print outs (6 to 7) of study Barangays and study Municipality/ Watershed, 50 Cards, 2x Tape roll, 4x Manila paper. Objectives: Participant groups develop intervention pathways for scenario “hybrid” by describing required activities (short-, mid-, long-term), and responsible actors for the successful implementation of the scenario. The session is divided into 2 sections: 1) Short PPT to introduce task and purpose of back casting exercise; 2) Group activity 5 and presentation of individual group outcome to all participants. Presentation is recorded by digital camera. Guiding question 5: “What are the requirements for scenario ”hybrid” to be achieved in case of your municipality or Barangay by 2045?” Group activity 5: Participants use the developed scenario storyline “hybrid” to describe intervention pathways and actions that need to be achieved and/ or sustained, at short-term (1 to 10 years), mid-term (10 to 25 years), long-term (longer than 25 years) time horizons. Outcomes are document and written on a manila paper using the layout shown in Table 5. Responsible actors need to identified for each activity or intervention and per time horizon. Cards can be additionally used to describe further actions, interventions and responsible actors in more detail. Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 12 Table 6: Layout back casting for hybrid scenario to describe actions and responsible actors per time horizon Scenario Time horizon Short-term (1 to 10 years) Mid-term (10 to 25 years) Long-term (Longer than 25 years) Hybrid Actions/ Interventions: • X • Y • Z Responsible actors: • X • Y • Z Actions/ Interventions: • X • Y • Z Responsible actors: • X • Y • Z Actions/ Interventions: • X • Y • Z Responsible actors: • X • Y • Z Note: Table should be prepared as manila paper (2x) prior the commencement of Group Activity 5. o Expected outputs: Completed Table 5 for Group 1 and Group 2 on manila paper. o Group activity 5 results are presented to all participants in afternoon session (after lunch break). Pros and cons of scenario “hybrid” likely future occurrence shall be discussed and reflected. o Each group has to name a speaker. Group voting is document on card. Presentation is recorded by digital camera. 5.4 Session: Group presentations of mapping and back casting activities Duration: 60 min Materials required: Projector or TV screen, Results of Group Activity 4 and 5; Workshop evaluation sheet. Objectives: Participant group 1 and 2 present outcomes of group activity 4 and 5 for Barangayand Watershed/ Municipality-level. Altogether, participants discuss lessons learned for present and future land use planning and environmental management activities at municipality/ watershed-, or Barangay-level. The session is concluded by a short evaluation of workshop activities, timing, comprehension of given PowerPoint presentations and provided materials. Each participant submits a provided A4 workshop evaluation sheet for this purpose. The session is divided into 2 sections: 1) Presentations (4x in total, 10 min each) of group activities 4 and 5 for Barangayand Watershed/ Municipality-level (40 min). 2) Participants discuss developed scenario narrative “hybrid” at Barangayand Watershed/ Municipality-level (20 min). Expected outcomes: o Recorded presentations of morning session activities (4 and 5) for Barangayand Watershed/ Municipality-level recorded by digital camera. o Workshop evaluation sheet is completed by each participant and collected. 5.5 Closing program Duration: 30 to 45 min • Outlook on CITIZEN-SDSS Phase 3 and 4 activities in 2025 and 2026 Co-design scenario workshops________________________________________________________________________________ 13 6 References Asare, Prince; Lippe, Melvin (2025). CITIZEN-SDSS PROJECT: Study Landscapes Profile Philippines https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17235669 Asare P., Paul C., Sales-Come R., Mangabat R., Ramos M., Lippe M. 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