CITIZEN-SDSS: Study Landscapes Profile Philippines

CITIZEN-SDSS PROJECT: STUDY LANDSCAPES PROFILE PHILIPPINES Prince Asare and Melvin Lippe Authors affiliation Prince Asare Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany Melvin Lippe Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany Suggested citation: Asare, P., & Lippe, M. (2025). CITIZEN-SDSS PROJECT: Study Landscapes Profile Philippines (Version 1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17235669 Project consortium Thünen Institute of Forestry Leuschnerstr. 91 21031 Hamburg | Germany Forest Foundation Philippines Makati City Philippines Isabela State University Cabagan, Isabela province Philippines Visayas State University Baybay, Leyte province Philippines Funding Velux Stiftung Kirchgasse 2 CH-8001 Zürich | Switzerland Grant ID: 1881 Contact and Homepage E-Mail: [email protected] Homepage: https://www.thuenen.de/en/institutes/forestry/projects-1/citizen-sdss-1 Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ Table of Contents List of Figures i List of Tables ii 1 Introduction 1 2 Study regions 1 2.1 Cagayan Valley – Region II 1 2.2 Eastern Visayas – Region VIII 1 3 Study landscapes 1 3.1 Penablanca 2 3.1.1 Socio-demographic 2 3.1.2 Land use and topography 2 3.1.3 Forest change dynamics 5 3.1.4 Current and future climatic conditions 6 3.1.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions 7 3.1.6 Current and potential future management challenges 8 3.2 Balasig Watershed 9 3.2.1 Socio-demographic 9 3.2.2 Land use and topography 9 3.2.3 Forest change dynamics 12 3.2.4 Current and future climatic conditions 13 3.2.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions 14 3.2.6 Current and potential future management challenges 15 3.3 Maasin 16 3.3.1 Socio-demographic 16 3.3.2 Land use and topography 17 3.3.3 Forest change dynamics 19 3.3.4 Current and future climatic conditions 20 3.3.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions 21 3.3.6 Current and potential future management challenges 22 3.4 Silago 24 3.4.1 Socio-demographic 24 3.4.2 Land use and topography 24 3.4.3 Forest change dynamics 27 3.4.4 Current and future climatic conditions 27 3.4.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions 29 3.4.6 Current and potential future management challenges 31 4 Conclusion 31 5 References 33 Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ i List of Figures Figure 1: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Penablanca from 2010 to 2024 ............................. 2 Figure 2: Topography of Penablanca ........................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 3: Land cover (2020) of Penablanca .............................................................................................................. 4 Figure 4: Location of tenurial instruments and protected areas in Penablanca ..................................................... 5 Figure 5: Penablanca forest change dynamic 2024 ................................................................................................. 6 Figure 6: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature for Penablanca from 1993 to 2022 ......... 7 Figure 7: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Balasig Watershed from 2010 to 2024 ................. 9 Figure 8: Topography of Balasig Watershed .......................................................................................................... 10 Figure 9: Land cover (2020) of Balasig Watershed ................................................................................................ 11 Figure 10: Location of tenurial instruments and protected areas in Balasig Watershed ..................................... 12 Figure 11: Balasig Watershed Forest change dynamic 2024 ................................................................................. 13 Figure 12: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature in Cabagan from 1993 to 2022 ........... 14 Figure 13: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Maasin from 2010 to 2024 ................................. 16 Figure 14: Topography of Maasin ............................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 15: Land cover (2020) of Maasin ................................................................................................................. 18 Figure 16: Location of tenurial instrument areas in Maasin .................................................................................. 19 Figure 17: Maasin Forest change dynamic 2024 .................................................................................................... 20 Figure 18: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature in Maasin from 1993 to 2022.............. 21 Figure 19: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Silago from 2010 to 2024 .................................. 24 Figure 20: Topography of Silago ............................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 21: Land cover (2020) of Silago ................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 22: Location of tenurial instrument areas in Silago .................................................................................... 28 Figure 23: Maasin Forest change dynamic 2024 .................................................................................................... 29 Figure 24: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature in Silago from 1993 to 2022 ................ 30 Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ ii List of Tables Table 1: Total population of Penablanca from 2010 to 2024 ................................................................................... 2 Table 2: Penablanca land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area ............... 3 Table 3: Penablanca forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 .................................................................... 5 Table 4: Total population of Balasig Watershed from 2010 to 2024 ....................................................................... 9 Table 5: Balasig Watershed land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area .. 11 Table 6: Balasig Watershed forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 ...................................................... 12 Table 7: Total population of Maasin from 2010 to 2024 ........................................................................................ 16 Table 8: Maasin land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area .................... 18 Table 9: Maasin forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 ......................................................................... 19 Table 10: Total population of Silago from 2010 to 2024 ........................................................................................ 24 Table 11: Silago 2020 land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area ........... 27 Table 12: Silago forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 ......................................................................... 27 Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 1 1 Introduction The CITIZEN-SDSS project is focused on fostering nature-based solutions (NBS) for sustaining and expanding the remaining forest landscapes in the Philippines by integrating local stakeholder aspirations into land use planning through spatial decision support systems (SDSS). The Philippines, with only 24% of its forest cover remaining, faces severe threats from deforestation, degradation, and climate change, despite being a global biodiversity hotspot and a vital provider of ecosystem services and livelihoods. By focusing on the Philippines, the project addresses both urgent ecological risks and pressing socio-economic needs thus, safeguarding biodiversity, supporting local communities through NBS interventions such as agroforestry, forest restoration, assisted natural regeneration (ANR), riparian buffer restoration and other sustainable land management practices. Through Citizen Science approaches and spatiotemporal modelling, CITIZEN-SDSS develops context-sensitive, scientifically rigorous pathways for sustainable land and forest management, ensuring that decision-making processes are inclusive, locally grounded, and responsive to long-term environmental and livelihood priorities. 2 Study regions The project mainly focuses on two regions in the Philippines which includes Cagayan Valley, termed as Region 2 and Eastern Visayas, termed as Region 8. These two regions exhibit some of the remaining intact forest landscapes of the Philippines (Gabriel et al., 2025) and ongoing reforestation and landscape restoration projects (under the umbrella of NBS) (Ferrer Velasco et al., 2022), however, there exist different patterns of land use changes characterised with continuous occurrence of deforestation and forest degradation. The Deforestation and forest degradation in these regions is mainly caused by cropland area expansion, illegal logging, charcoal making, fuelwood extraction, among others (Rose et al., 2009). 2.1 Cagayan Valley – Region II The Cagayan Valley Region is located in the north-eastern part of Luzon, is the largest valley in the Philippines and is often referred to as the country’s “rice and corn granary.” The region is bounded by the Sierra Madre and Cordillera Mountain ranges, it is traversed by the Cagayan River, the longest river in the Philippines. The region is rich in fertile agricultural lands, vast forests, and abundant natural resources, making it a key area for farming, forestry, and fisheries. It is also highly biodiverse, with parts of the Sierra Madre recognized as critical habitats. Cagayan valley is characterised mainly as a type II and some areas type III climatic zone with no pronounced season (Coronas, 1920; Corporal-Lodangco, Leslie 2017), but a relatively wet period from May to October and vulnerable to natural disasters like floods and typhoons (PSA, 2023). 2.2 Eastern Visayas – Region VIII The Eastern Visayas Region is located in the central Philippines, bounded by the Pacific Ocean, Samar Sea, and Leyte Gulf. The region is known for its uneven terrain, rich coastal resources, and extensive forests, the region is both agriculturally productive and highly biodiverse. It is a major producer of coconut, abaca, and fisheries, while also being home to important protected areas. The region find itself in the type III climatic zone of the Philippines (Coronas, 1920; Corporal-Lodangco, Leslie 2017) and experience rainfall throughout the year with no distinct dry season, and considered to be highly vulnerable to natural hazards such as typhoons, floods, and storm surges, exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in 2013, making resilience and sustainable land management critical for its future (DOST, 2017). 3 Study landscapes The CITIZEN-SDSS project specifically focuses on four different landscapes from the above mentioned two regions, namely, Penablanca and Balasig Watershed from Region 2 and Maasin and Silago from Region 8. The subsequent sections of this report provide descriptions of these landscapes in terms of their socio-demographic characteristics, land use and topography, climatic conditions and future projections, future land use and forest management visions as well as current and potential future management challenges, mainly extracted from the Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 2 respective landscapes Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUPs) (Cadiz et al., 2022; City of Maasin, 2016; Municipality of Cabagan, 2018; Municipality of Penablanca, 2020; Municipality of Tumauini, 2023). 3.1 Penablanca 3.1.1 Socio-demographic Penablanca municipality is located in Cagayan Province of the Cagayan Valley Region, consisting of 24 barangays and generally considered an intermediate rural-urban area. The municipality has a total land area of 1,245.65 km² (124,565 hectares), of which nearly 67% is forestland, much of it falling within the Peñablanca Protected Landscape and Seascape (PPLS). The 2024 population of the landscape stood at 50856 with a gross population density of 40 persons per km² (0.41 person per ha), and a declining growth rate since 2010 (see Fig 1 and Table 1). Agriculture, thus, primarily corn and rice farming remain the dominant source of livelihood, while the emerging sectors of quarrying, commerce, and eco-tourism supplement income opportunities mostly in the urban centers of the municipality (Municipality of Penablanca, 2020). Table 1: Total population of Penablanca from 2010 to 2024 Year Total Population 2010 42,736 2015 48,584 2020 50,300 2024 50,856 Source: https://psa.gov.ph/ Figure 1: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Penablanca from 2010 to 2024 Source: https://psa.gov.ph/ 3.1.2 Land use and topography Penablanca’s topography is highly varied, consisting of alluvial plains and valleys along the western portion and extensive hilly to mountainous terrain in the east dominated by the Sierra Madre Mountain range, which covers about 85% of the municipality. Elevations range from 51 meters in the lowlands to over 1,814 meters above sea level in the uplands, with slopes exceeding 50% across more than 40% of the total land area (Fig. 2). These steep 2.47 0.73 0.26 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2024 Growth rate Years Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 3 and rugged landscapes play a critical role in shaping land use, limiting large-scale settlements and agriculture in higher elevations while supporting forests, watersheds, and biodiversity habitats that are central to the municipality’s ecological and socio-economic systems. Figure 2: Topography of Penablanca Source: Research team construct using municipality and barangay administrative boundaries from Penablanca Local Government Unit (LGU) and elevation map using DEM from Aster (https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp) Table 2: Penablanca land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area Land cover class Area (ha) Area (km2) % Coverage Closed forest 33023.97 330.24 26.53 Open forest 50895.09 508.95 40.89 Mangrove 27.99 0.28 0.02 Shrubs 12173.94 121.74 9.78 Bareland 640.62 6.41 0.52 Grassland 8667.18 86.67 6.96 Annual cropland 16723.26 167.23 13.44 Perennial cropland 494.19 4.94 0.4 Built_up 658.98 6.59 0.53 Water 1160.37 11.6 0.93 Source: Researchers’ construct using land cover data from NAMRIA https://geoportal.gov.ph/ Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 10 Information Authority (NAMRIA) land cover 2020 (see Table 5 and Fig. 9). Forests remain significant, with open forest accounting making up 20.01% and closed forest (3.19%), together representing just over 23% of the watershed. Shrubs cover 13.12%, reflecting transitional or regenerating vegetation, while grasslands occupy 8.83% across the watershed. Other land cover classes make up smaller shares: built-up areas 1.61%, water bodies 0.75%, and bare lands just 0.38%. This composition highlights a watershed where agriculture is the dominant land use, supported by substantial forest and shrub cover that play vital roles in regulating water flow, protecting soils, and maintaining ecological balance, alongside small but important areas of settlements and water bodies. Figure 8: Topography of Balasig Watershed Source: Research team construct using municipality and barangay administrative boundaries from Cabagan and Tumauini LGU and Balasig Watershed boundary from Region II DENR-CDD and elevation map using DEM from Aster (https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/ gdem.asp). Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 11 Table 5: Balasig Watershed land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area Land cover class Area (ha) Area (km2) % Coverage Closed forest 841.95 8.42 3.19 Open forest 5274.81 52.75 20.01 Shrubs 3458.43 34.58 13.12 Bareland 98.91 0.99 0.38 Grassland 2328.84 23.29 8.83 Annual cropland 13741.38 137.41 52.12 Built_up 424.44 4.24 1.61 Water 198.18 1.98 0.75 Source: Researchers’ construct using land cover data from NAMRIA https://geoportal.gov.ph/ Figure 9: Land cover (2020) of Balasig Watershed Source: Research team construct using land cover data from NAMRIA (https://geoportal.gov.ph/). Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 12 Figure 10: Location of tenurial instruments and protected areas in Balasig Watershed Source: Research team construct using Tenurial instrument and protected areas boundaries from Cabagan and Tumauini LGU. 3.2.3 Forest change dynamics Based on the Tropical Moist Forests (TMF) product (Vancutsem et al., 2021) datasets from 2000 to 2024, Balasig Watershed recorded a reduction of about 2,021 hectares in undisturbed forest (see Table 6). Over the same period, degraded forests expanded by approximately 1,418 hectares, while deforested land decreased by about 124 hectares. Forest regrowth reached around 1,350 hectares, permanent water increased slightly by 3.5 hectares, and other land cover declined by about 626 hectares. See Fig 11 for the 2024 forest change map and Table 6 for the statistics of change between 2000 and 2024. Table 6: Balasig Watershed forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 Forest change dynamics Area 2000 (ha) Area 2024 (ha) Change (2000 - 2024) (ha) Annual rate (ha/yr) Annual change rate (%) Undisturbed forest 6803.1 4782.24 -2020.86 -84.20 -1.24 Degraded forest 597.06 2014.83 1417.77 59.07 9.89 Deforested land 926.19 802.62 -123.57 -5.15 -0.56 Forest regrowth 3.24 1352.79 1349.55 56.23 1735.53 Permanent water 132.48 135.99 3.51 0.15 0.11 Other land cover 19331.01 18704.61 -626.40 -26.10 -0.14 Source: Researchers’ construct using data from https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF/data#downloads Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 13 Figure 11: Balasig Watershed Forest change dynamic 2024 Source: Research team construct using Tropical Moist Forests (TMF) product datasets (https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF/data#downloads) 3.2.4 Current and future climatic conditions Balasig Watershed’s climate is characterized by high average temperatures of about 27.3°C, high rainfall variability, and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Annual precipitation is considerable, averaging 2,023 mm, with the driest months occurring early in the year and the wet season extending from July through December. October is typically the wettest month, with rainfall peaking significantly during this period. Most parts of the watershed lie within the flood-prone Cagayan River Basin, making them especially vulnerable to typhoons, prolonged rains, and occasional droughts. Historical observations point to rising average temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, further heightening risks of flooding, crop failure, and associated health concerns. See Fig. 12 for Cabagan climate chart (Zepner et al., 2021) which depicts the situation of the entire Balasig Watershed. Projected future climate scenarios suggest that Cabagan will experience intensified climate hazards, especially during the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) seasons. Expected trends include rising temperatures, more severe floods, and extended dry spells, all of which pose threats to agriculture, water resources, and local infrastructure. The most affected sectors are expected to be agriculture, fisheries, water supply, and public health. Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 14 Figure 12: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature in Cabagan from 1993 to 2022 Source: https://climatecharts.net/ 3.2.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions According to comprehensive land use plans (CLUP) of Cabagan and Tumauini, the future land use and forestrelated management vision for the Balasig Watershed (consideration of Cabagan and Tumauini municipalities visions) is centered on achieving a balanced model of sustainable development where urban expansion, agricultural productivity, and forest conservation coexist to strengthen both ecological resilience and socioeconomic growth (Municipality of Cabagan, 2018; Municipality of Tumauini, 2023). In line with the broader aspirations of Cabagan and Tumauini, the watershed is envisioned to host modest but strategically planned urban growth, with infrastructure improvements such as enhanced road networks, flood control systems, water supply facilities, and community service centers designed to support increasing population and economic activities. Importantly, this urban and economic development is deliberately planned to avoid significant encroachment into agricultural and forest zones, recognizing the long-term value of these lands for food security, biodiversity, and disaster resilience. The vision acknowledges that the Balasig watershed is particularly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards, including flooding, droughts, and landslides, given its varied topography and reliance on the Cagayan River and tributaries. Future proposals therefore emphasize strengthening disaster risk management through integrated land use planning that incorporates floodplain zoning, slope stabilization, and investment in drainage systems Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 15 and early warning infrastructure. Ecosystem-based solutions such as watershed rehabilitation, mangrove reforestation along riverbanks, and the maintenance of riparian vegetation are prioritized to enhance natural flood regulation and water retention capacity. These measures are aimed not only at reducing climate risks but also at securing livelihoods that depend on the watershed’s agricultural and water resources. On the forestry side, the Balasig watershed’s management vision highlights strict monitoring and protection of the Sierra Madre Forest ecosystems, including portions overlapping with the Northern Sierra Madre Natural Park (NSMNP). Both Cabagan and Tumauini emphasize the critical role of forests in climate regulation, soil conservation, water cycle maintenance, and biodiversity protection. Future initiatives shall therefore focus on reinforcing anti-illegal logging campaigns, expanding reforestation and agroforestry in degraded upland and highsloped areas, and promoting biodiversity corridors to sustain ecological connectivity. Moreover, the vision incorporates sustainable forest-based livelihoods such as eco-tourism, non-timber forest products, and community-managed forest enterprises as strategies to reduce pressure on natural resources while creating alternative income sources. Governance and social participation are at the heart of these future proposals. The watershed’s management shall be strengthened through multi-stakeholder partnerships involving local governments, national agencies, civil society organizations, and local communities. Capacity-building programs shall empower residents with the knowledge and tools to actively engage in forest protection, sustainable farming, and responsible land use practices. Education and environmental awareness initiatives are also envisioned to foster a culture of stewardship across generations. Hence, the future vision for the Balasig watershed combines sustainable urban growth, climate-adaptive infrastructure, resilient agriculture, and strong forest protection measures. By integrating ecological sustainability into economic and social development, the watershed is envisioned to evolve into a climateresilient and ecologically balanced landscape, ensuring that its natural resources continue to provide essential ecosystem services while supporting the aspirations of its people for prosperity and security. 3.2.6 Current and potential future management challenges The management challenges facing the Balasig watershed reflect a combination of institutional, technical, financial, and socio-political constraints as described in the CLUPs (Municipality of Cabagan, 2018; Municipality of Tumauini, 2023). A critical concern is the establishment of an effective results-based monitoring and evaluation (RBME) system to track the wide range of interventions and ensure that resources are allocated and utilized efficiently. Weak linkages between planning, budgeting, and execution often result in delays, inefficiencies, and potential misallocation of resources. At the same time, Tumauini’s CLUP highlights the financial risks of securing sufficient funding for large-scale infrastructure and environmental programs, compounded by technical complexities and logistical hurdles in implementing watershed management projects across challenging terrain. Regulatory and compliance demands further strain local capacity, while safety, quality management, and operational issues create risks during project execution. Market uncertainties and shifting land use dynamics also affect long-term project viability, requiring adaptive strategies. Finally, political and social risks remain significant, as the effectiveness of management efforts depends on community acceptance, stakeholder participation, and sustained local support. Together, these interlinked challenges underscore the need for integrated governance, evidence-based decision-making, and strong institutional coordination to ensure that Balasig watershed interventions achieve their intended ecological and socio-economic outcomes. Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 16 3.3 Maasin 3.3.1 Socio-demographic Maasin is a City and the capital of Southern Leyte Province in Eastern Visayas region, consisting of 70 barangays. The city mainly functions as the administrative, commercial, and religious center of the province. The city covers a total land area of 20,949 hectares (209.49 km²), predominantly covered with agricultural land including coconut-based farms, rice fields, and upland production areas. As of the 2024, Maasin had a population of 85,486, which is a decrease from their 2020 population as presented in Table 7 and a decreasing growth rate trend since 2010 and presented in Fig. 13. The gross population density of Maasin is about 408 persons per km² (4.08 persons per hectare), with the majority concentrated in the coastal barangays. Agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood, dominated by mainly, coconut, and others including rice, abaca, and root crop production, while fisheries and aquaculture also play a vital role in coastal communities. Complementing this base are small-scale trade and commerce in the Poblacion (city’s core) barangays, public services as the provincial capital, cottage industries such as food processing and handicrafts, and an emerging eco-tourism and pilgrimage sector driven by the city’s natural attractions and religious sites (City of Maasin, 2016). Table 7: Total population of Maasin from 2010 to 2024 Year Total Population 2010 81,250 2015 85,560 2020 87,446 2024 85,486 Source: https://psa.gov.ph/ Figure 13: Population growth rate trend (annual % change) of Maasin from 2010 to 2024 Source: https://psa.gov.ph/ 0.99 0.46 -0.54 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2024 Growth rate Years Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 17 3.3.2 Land use and topography Maasin’s topography is generally uneven, with a mix of narrow coastal plains, inland valleys, and extensive hilly to mountainous terrain dominating much of its land area. Elevations range from sea level along the Bohol Sea coast to over 716 meters above sea level in the upland barangays (Fig. 14), with slopes exceeding 18% across more than half of the total area. The steep slopes and upland ridges serve as important watersheds and forestlands, while low-lying plains and river valleys provide limited space for settlements, irrigated rice fields, and coconut-based agriculture. This varied terrain strongly influences land use, with urban growth concentrated along the flatter coastal zones, while the uplands remain largely devoted to forestry, agroforestry, and biodiversity conservation that are vital to the city’s ecological stability and climate resilience. Maasin City’s land use composition is predominantly agriculture, with perennial croplands mainly coconut plantations, abaca, and other tree crops occupying about 61.27% of the total land area according to National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) landcover 2020 (see Table 8 and Fig. 15). Shrubland (considered as forest land areas according to Maasin City LGU) is the next largest land cover type, covering about 26.23%, mostly in upland areas. Built-up areas, which include residential, commercial, and institutional spaces, account for about (4.2%), concentrated along the coastal Poblacion barangays and selected growth centers. Annual croplands, largely rice and other seasonal crops, occupy 3.95%, while grasslands cover 2.28%, often used for grazing or left idle. The city also maintains important coastal ecosystems, with 242 hectares (1.16%) of mangroves providing fishery resources and shoreline protection. This composition highlights the dominance of perennial crop-based agriculture, the growing extent of shrublands, and the relatively small but expanding footprint of built-up areas that reflect Maasin’s gradual urbanization (mainly infrastructure expansion) alongside its strong dependence on agriculture and natural ecosystems. Figure 14: Topography of Maasin Source: Research team construct using municipality and barangay administrative boundaries from Maasin LGU and elevation map using DEM from Aster (https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp) Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 18 Table 8: Maasin land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area Land cover class Area (ha) Area (km2) % Coverage Open forest 146.79 1.47 0.7 Mangrove 242.73 2.43 1.16 Shrubs 5496.12 54.96 26.23 Bareland 0.9 0.01 0 Grassland 476.55 4.77 2.28 Annual cropland 827.37 8.27 3.95 Perennial cropland 12837.33 128.37 61.27 Built_up 878.76 8.79 4.2 Water 42.84 0.43 0.21 Source: Researchers’ construct using landcover data from NAMRIA https://geoportal.gov.ph/ Figure 15: Land cover (2020) of Maasin Source: Research team construct using land cover data from NAMRIA (https://geoportal.gov.ph/) Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 19 Figure 16: Location of tenurial instrument areas in Maasin Source: Research team construct using Tenurial instrument areas boundaries from Maasin City LGU 3.3.3 Forest change dynamics According to the Tropical Moist Forests (TMF) product (Vancutsem et al., 2021) datasets from 2000 to 2024, Maasin’s undisturbed forest declined by about 70%, with a loss of over 10,000 hectares (see Table 9). During the same period, degraded forests increased by more than 7,200 hectares, while deforested land expanded by about 2,800 hectares. Forest regrowth covered only 277 hectares, permanent water increased slightly by 2.6 hectares, and other land cover decreased by about 179 hectares. See Fig 17 for the 2024 forest status and Table 9 for the statistics of change between 2000 and 2024. Table 9: Maasin forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 Forest change dynamics Area 2000 (ha) Area 2024 (ha) Change (2000 - 2024) (ha) Annual rate (ha/yr) Annual change rate (%) Undisturbed forest 14418.72 4281.84 -10136.88 -422.37 -2.93 Degraded forest 1207.89 8412.03 7204.14 300.17 24.85 Deforested land 2448.36 5279.58 2831.22 117.97 4.82 Forest regrowth 17.01 294.48 277.47 11.56 67.97 Permanent water 42.48 45.09 2.61 0.11 0.26 Other land cover 3291.21 3112.65 -178.56 -7.44 -0.23 Source: Researchers’ construct using data from https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF/data#downloads Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 26 mangroves account for only (0.01%) along the coast according to National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) landcover 2020 (see Table 11 and Fig. 21). Shrublands cover (19.58%) and grasslands (7.66%), much of which are former forest areas transitioning into degraded lands. Agriculture is extensive, with perennial croplands (primarily coconut) occupying (20.33%) and annual croplands (including rice and root crops) covering (4.56%). Built-up areas remain relatively small making up (1.17%), concentrated in the poblacion and coastal barangays, while water bodies cover 75.96 hectares (0.42%). This land use pattern highlights the ecological importance of Silago’s forests and watersheds, the dominance of coconut-based agriculture, and the pressures of land degradation and limited urban expansion. It also underscores the need for sustainable land management and nature-based solutions to balance conservation, food security, and climate resilience. Figure 21: Land cover (2020) of Silago Source: Research team construct using land cover data from NAMRIA (https://geoportal.gov.ph/) Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 27 Table 11: Silago 2020 land cover coverage (ha and km2) and percentage of coverage to total land area Land cover class Area (ha) Area (km2) % Coverage Closed forest 1197.81 11.98 6.64 Open forest 7152.3 71.52 39.62 Mangrove 1.89 0.02 0.01 Shrubs 3533.94 35.34 19.58 Bareland 2.16 0.02 0.01 Grassland 1381.59 13.82 7.66 Annual cropland 823.86 8.24 4.56 Perennial cropland 3671.1 36.71 20.33 Built_up 211.77 2.12 1.17 Water 75.96 0.76 0.42 Source: Researchers’ construct using land cover data from NAMRIA https://geoportal.gov.ph/ 3.4.3 Forest change dynamics According to the Tropical Moist Forests (TMF) product (Vancutsem et al., 2021) datasets from 2000 to 2024, Silago’s undisturbed forest was reduced by about 2,200 hectares (see Table 12). During the same period, degraded forests increased by more than 1,570 hectares, while deforested land expanded by about 137 hectares. Forest regrowth covered 1,231 hectares, permanent water increased slightly by 0.6 hectares, and other land cover decreased by about 739 hectares. See Fig 23 for the 2024 forest change map and Table 12 for the statistics of change between 2000 and 2024. Table 12: Silago forest change dynamic rates from 2000 to 2024 Forest change dynamics Area 2000 (ha) Area 2024 (ha) Change (2000 - 2024) (ha) Annual rate (ha/yr) Annual change rate (%) Undisturbed forest 14244.93 12045.24 -2199.69 -91.65 -0.64 Degraded forest 551.61 2122.74 1571.13 65.46 11.87 Deforested land 1772.82 1909.44 136.62 5.69 0.32 Forest regrowth 20.07 1250.64 1230.57 51.27 255.47 Permanent water 7.38 8.01 0.63 0.03 0.36 Other land cover 1877.04 1137.78 -739.26 -30.80 -1.64 Source: Researchers’ construct using data from https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF/data#downloads 3.4.4 Current and future climatic conditions Silago is highly exposed to climate-related hazards such as typhoons, heavy rainfall, floods, storm surges, landslides, and tsunamis. Its prevailing climate is Type II under the Modified Corona Classification (Coronas, 1920; Corporal-Lodangco, Leslie 2017), characterized by the absence of a dry season and a pronounced rainy period from November to February. The average annual temperature is 26.9°C, with minimal variation across the year (25.8°C–27.9°C monthly), while precipitation is exceptionally high (3,724.2 mm) annually. December and January are the wettest months, receiving 583.9 mm and 486.3 mm of rainfall, respectively, while July and September are relatively drier, though still wet by global standards, with 192.7 mm and 197.6 mm. Historical data indicate increasingly erratic climate patterns, with more extreme hot and rainy seasons already affecting local livelihoods, Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 28 reinforcing Silago’s classification as a consistently warm and very wet tropical rainforest zone. See climate chart (Zepner et al., 2021) in Fig. 24 depicting the climate situation for Silago. Based on climate projections, Silago is expected to experience significant warming, with temperature increases of up to 2.2°C by the 2050s, especially during the warm-dry months of April and May. Rainfall is projected to decline during the dry season and increase during the wet season, exacerbating the risk of droughts, flooding, and other extreme events. Inland areas, where most forests are located, are particularly vulnerable to these changes, while coastal zones face threats from sea-level rise and more intense storm surges. 12 Figure 22: Location of tenurial instrument areas in Silago Source: Research team construct using Tenurial instrument areas boundaries from Silago LGU Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 29 Figure 23: Maasin Forest change dynamic 2024 Source: Research team construct using Tropical Moist Forests (TMF) product datasets (https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF/data#downloads) 3.4.5 Future land use and forest-related management visions Silago’s future land use and forest management vision, as articulated in its 2022 - 2032 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), is based on sustainability, climate resilience, and inclusive development. Central to this vision is the strengthening of Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) programs, which are recognized as a cornerstone for forest conservation while simultaneously enhancing the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities (Cadiz et al., 2022). The municipality seeks to build the capacity of these communities to sustainably manage forest resources, reduce pressures from agricultural expansion, and adopt alternative livelihoods such as agroforestry, eco-tourism, and other climate-resilient enterprises. By integrating local knowledge with scientific forest management practices, Silago aims to ensure both ecological integrity and socio-economic benefits for its population. Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 30 In parallel with conservation, the municipality places strong emphasis on integrated watershed management, recognizing the critical role of forests in regulating water supply and quality. Protecting and expanding forest cover is essential not only for biodiversity but also for aquifer recharge, maintaining spring flows, and reducing erosion, runoff, and siltation, all of which are vital to sustaining irrigation systems and drinking water supplies. To safeguard these ecological functions, land use regulations shall strictly limit the conversion of forest areas into agriculture or settlements, particularly in zones identified as highly vulnerable to flooding, landslides, and storm surges. Figure 24: Climate chart showing mean precipitation and temperature in Silago from 1993 to 2022 Source: https://climatecharts.net/ Zoning and land classification serve as another cornerstone of the future vision. Silago intends to strictly enforce zoning laws to prevent encroachment into ecologically sensitive areas, while prioritizing the reforestation of degraded and fragmented landscapes. A key proposal is to rehabilitate and reconnect isolated forest patches, particularly along ecological corridors and watershed areas, to restore ecosystem connectivity and resilience. The delineation of permanent forest lines and the systematic monitoring of land conversion are also viewed as essential steps toward maintaining long-term forest integrity. Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 31 Given the projected impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, prolonged dry spells, and intensified extreme weather, Silago’s forest management strategies shall incorporate adaptive measures. These include reforestation using native and drought-resistant species, the establishment of firebreaks and buffer zones to mitigate wildfire risks, and improved forest fire surveillance and control systems. Sustainable harvesting practices shall be promoted to balance economic needs with ecological protection. In addition, the municipality plans to invest in modern monitoring systems, utilizing remote sensing and GIS technologies to track land cover changes, detect illegal logging, and monitor forest health in real-time. Finally, the CLUP underscores the importance of environmental education, participatory governance, and stakeholder engagement in shaping the future of Silago’s forests. By fostering a shared sense of stewardship, the municipality envisions building a resilient landscape where forests, watersheds, and agricultural areas are managed in harmony, ensuring that ecological sustainability underpins social and economic progress. 3.4.6 Current and potential future management challenges The CLUP identifies several management challenges in Silago, particularly in relation to forest conservation and land use (Cadiz et al., 2022). One major challenge is the ongoing pressure from agricultural expansion into forestlands, driven by the demand for more farming space and the widespread establishment of coconut plantations, which often become the final land use after forest clearing. This is compounded by weak enforcement of land use regulations, limited monitoring capacity, and insufficient coordination among government agencies and local stakeholders. Additionally, road construction and infrastructure development increase accessibility to remote forest areas, accelerating land conversion and forest fragmentation. Illegal logging, though less widespread, remains a concern due to regional timber scarcity and limited livelihood options for upland communities. These pressures are further intensified by climate change impacts, such as increased temperatures and prolonged dry periods, which can reduce forest productivity and increase fire risks. Addressing these challenges requires stronger institutional support, integrated land use planning, community involvement, and enhanced climate adaptation strategies. 4 Conclusion In summary, the four study landscapes thus, Penablanca, Balasig Watershed, Maasin, and Silago share common pressures from agriculture and climate-related hazards but exhibit distinct land use and climatic characteristics. Penablanca, an intermediate rural - urban landscape, is heavily forested, and livelihood sources mainly powered by agriculture, quarrying, and eco-tourism. Its climate, with no distinct wet or dry season but heavy rainfall from July to October. Balasig Watershed is also considered an intermediate rural-urban area which is dominated by agriculture, with over half of its land planted with corn and rice, which is also the major livelihood source for localities. The watershed increasingly experiences situations of drought irrespective of the continuous wet periods and the conditions of high rainfall variability and shifting weather patterns. Maasin, the most urbanized landscape and provincial capital with 85,486 residents, has over 65% of its land area under perennial croplands such as coconut, which is also a major livelihood source and places stress on its remaining forests. Its climate is marked by irregular rainfall pattern, and exposure to coastal hazards such as storm surges and erosion. Silago, by contrast, is the smallest and considered a rural and the least populated landscape amongst the four study landscapes. Silago is also dominated with forest cover and has traces of perennial cropland (coconut) expansion, which is also a major livelihood source. Silago is also part of type II climate zone, with no dry season and a pronounced rainy period from November to February, making it highly exposed to typhoons, floods, and even tsunamis. Across all four landscapes, agriculture remains the main livelihood source and driver of land use change, and they all also face similar hazards including droughts, typhoons, floods, and even tsunamis. However, the differences across the four landscapes provide an important basis for analysing varied dynamics pertaining to degradation drivers and ecosystem service provision and their implication for future land use changes as well as different NBS Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 32 implementation patterns to ensure a balanced conservation and improved livelihood conditions in different locations of the Philippines and other tropical regions Study Landscapes Profile _______________________________________________________________________ 33 5 References Cadiz, C., Jakosalem-Balane, J., Rojas, P., & Mancao, R. (2022). 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International Journal of Digital Earth, 14(3), 338–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2020.1829112 Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut Bundesallee 50 38116 Braunschweig Germany www.thuenen.de Text, Figures and Tables: ©2025 the author(s), Thünen Institute. This is an open access publication distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribute on 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).