Summary for Policymakers

1CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN Current situation and risks for the future First Mediterranean Assessment Report Summary for policymakers by MedECC (Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change) CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC Edited by Wolfgang Cramer MedECC Coordinator CNRS, France Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Écologie marine et continentale (IMBE) Katarzyna Marini MedECC Science Officer MedECC Secretariat Plan Bleu Joël Guiot MedECC Coordinator CNRS, France Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE) XICLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS Text as approved during Plenary Session of MedECC Stakeholders on September 22, 2020 Drafting Authors: Wolfgang Cramer (France), Joël Guiot (France), Katarzyna Marini (France), Brian Azzopardi (Malta), Mario V Balzan (Malta), Semia Cherif (Tunisia), Enrique Doblas-Miranda (Spain), Maria dos Santos (Portugal), Philippe Drobinski (France), Marianela Fader (Germany), Abed El Rahman Hassoun (Lebanon), Carlo Giupponi (Italy), Vassiliki Koubi (Greece/Switzerland), Manfred Lange (Cyprus), Piero Lionello (Italy), Maria Carmen Llasat (Spain), Stefano Moncada (Malta), Rachid Mrabet (Morocco), Shlomit Paz (Israel), Robert Savé (Spain), Maria Snoussi (Morocco), Andrea Toreti (Italy), Athanasios T. Vafeidis (Germany/Greece), Elena Xoplaki (Germany) This document should be cited as: MedECC 2020 Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, pp 11-40, doi:10.5281/zenodo.5513887. 42 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC 5CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC Table of contents Executive Summary: Climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean Basin ...................................................................................... 6 Background and key findings of the First Mediterranean Assessment Report ....................................................... 8 1. Background for the assessment ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Drivers of environmental change in the Mediterranean Basin .......................................................................................9 2.1 Climate change .....................................................................................................................................................................................9 2.2 Pollution ...................................................................................................................................................................................................12 2.3 Land and sea use change ............................................................................................................................................................14 2.4 Non-indigenous species ...............................................................................................................................................................14 3. Resources ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................15 3.1 Water...........................................................................................................................................................................................................15 3.2 Food ............................................................................................................................................................................................................18 3.3 Energy transition in the Mediterranean ..............................................................................................................................19 4. Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................................................................21 4.1 Marine ecosystems ...........................................................................................................................................................................21 4.2 Coastal ecosystems ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.3 Terrestrial ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................................. 24 5. Society ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 5.1 Development ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 5.2 Human health ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 5.3 Human security ................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 6. Managing future risks and building socio-ecological resilience in the Mediterranean .......................................................................................................................................................31 SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 6CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC Virtually all sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, on land and in the sea, are impacted by recent anthropogenic changes in the environment. The main drivers of change include climate (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, extreme events, sea-level rise, sea water temperature, salinity and acidification), population increase, pollution, unsustainable land and sea use practices and non-indigenous species. In most areas, both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods are affected. Due to global and regional trends in the drivers, impacts will be exacerbated in the coming decades, especially if global warming exceeds 1.5 to 2°C above the pre-industrial level. Significantly enhanced efforts are needed in order to adapt to inevitable changes, mitigate change drivers and increase resilience. Due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, climate is changing in the Mediterranean Basin, historically and projected by climate models, faster than global trends. Annual mean temperatures on land and sea across the Mediterranean Basin are 1.5°C higher than during pre-industrial times and they are projected to rise until 2100 by an additional 3.8 to 6.5°C for a high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5) and 0.5 to 2.0°C for a scenario compatible with the long-term goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature well below +2°C above the pre-industrial level (RCP2.6). On land and in the sea, heat waves will intensify in duration and peak temperatures. Despite strong regional variations, summer rainfall will likely be reduced by 10 to 30% in some regions, increasing existing water shortages, desertification and decreasing agricultural productivity. It is virtually certain that sea surface warming will continue during the 21st century by 1 to 4°C depending on the scenario (low or high greenhouse gas emissions) and likely that deep waters will warm more in the Mediterranean than in other oceans in the world. Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations lead to seawater acidification, and this trend will continue. The Mediterranean mean sea level has risen by 6 cm over the past 20 years. This trend is likely to accelerate (with regional differences) by the global rate of 43 to 84 cm until 2100, but possibly more than 1 m in the case of further ice-sheet destabilization in Antarctica. Most impacts of climate change are exacerbated by other environmental challenges such as changing land use, increasing urbanization and tourism, agricultural intensification, overfishing, land degradation, desertification, and pollution (air, land, rivers and ocean). Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) have recently increased drastically, mainly because of shipping activity. Tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations increase due to pollution and warming, and high-level episodes will be more frequent in the future. Saharan dust transport is likely to also increase. The Mediterranean Sea is heavily polluted by multiple substances including plastic, emerging contaminants, heavy metals, fecal bacteria and viruses, all with expected increase in the future. The Mediterranean Sea is invaded by many non-indigenous species, particularly from the Red Sea but also through the Strait of Gibraltar, maritime transport and aquaculture. On land, non-indigenous species are particularly present in regions with high infrastructure and commerce development, including accidentally introduced phytophagous pests which cause damage to crops and forests. These trends are expected to continue in the future. Agriculture is the largest user of water in the Mediterranean region. Climate change impacts water resources in combination with demographic and socio-economic drivers, reducing runoff and groundwater recharge, water quality, increasing conflicts among users, ecosystem degradation and groundwater salinization in coastal aquifers. Demand for irrigation is expected to increase by 4 to 18% by 2100. Demographic change, including the growth of large urban centers, could enhance this demand by 22 to 74%. There is adaptive potential in the improvement of water use efficiency and reuse. Other important adaptations are changing agriculture practices and promoting the traditional Mediterranean diet, local production and reduction of food waste. Land and seafood production activities are strongly impacted by climate change, more frequent and intense extreme events, together with higher soil salinization, ocean acidification and land degradation. Crop yield reductions are projected for the next decades in most current areas of production and for most crops. This will potentially be worsened by emerging pests and pathogens. There is large SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS Executive Summary: Climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean Basin 7CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC adaptation potential in changing farming practices and management to agroecological methods, also providing important potential for climate change mitigation by increased carbon storage in soils. Marine food production is threatened by unsustainable fishing practices, non-indigenous species, warming, acidification and water pollution, which together may affect species distribution and trigger local extinction of more than 20% of exploited fish and marine invertebrates by 2050. Adaptation will require more rigorous management of fisheries in the Mediterranean. The sustainability of the Mediterranean food sector (from the land and the ocean) also depends on population growth, regional consumer behavior (diet) and the global food markets (which may be affected by environmental crisis elsewhere). Marine ecosystems and their biodiversity are also impacted by overfishing, warming, acidification and the spread of non-indigenous species from tropical waters. Expected consequences include increased jellyfish outbreaks, mucilage and algal bloom outbreaks, reduced commercial fish stocks, and general biodiversity loss due to altered physiology and ecology of most marine organisms. There is potential for mitigating these impacts through improved conservation within and beyond marine protected areas, more sustainable fishing practices and by reducing pollution from agriculture, urban areas and industry. In coastal systems, sea level rise will impact most infrastructure, aquifers, coastal crops, world heritage and other protected sites, notably in river deltas and estuaries. Increasing nutrient flows towards the sea increase the number and frequency of plankton blooms and jellyfish outbreaks, with negative impacts on fisheries, aquaculture and human health. The multiple levels of land-sea interactions could benefit from the implementation of new approaches of ecosystem-based Integrated Coastal Zone Management and conservation planning. Land biodiversity changes in multiple ways. In countries of the northern rim, forest area is increasing at the expense of extensive agriculture and grazing, while ecosystems in southern countries are still at risk of fragmentation or disappearance due to clearing and cultivation, overexploitation of firewood and overgrazing. Over the past 40 years, biodiversity changes and species loss have led to homogenization and a general simplification of biotic interactions. Half of wetland area has been lost or degraded, and this trend is expected to continue. Dryland extension and an increase in areas burnt during more frequent wildfires are expected. Adaptation options for land biodiversity include preservation of natural flow variability in Mediterranean rivers and the protection of riparian zones, reduction of water abstraction, modified silvicultural practices, and the promotion of climate-wise landscape connectivity. Human health is already impacted by high temperatures as well as air and water pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. The combined impacts of expected environmental changes (notably air pollution and climate) increase risks to human health from heat waves, food and water shortages, vector-borne, respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases. These health risks particularly impact disadvantaged or vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, pregnant women and people with low income. Human security faces new risks from extreme events, particularly along coastal areas. Conflicts caused by scarce resources and human migration are likely to increase due to drought and degrading agricultural and fisheries resources, although socio-economic and political factors are likely to still play a major role. Mediterranean cities are growing due to increasing population and socio-economic change, notably on the coasts of southern countries. Due to increasing heat stress, the planning and management of cities around to Mediterranean will need to focus more on human health and resilience to environmental change. Impacts of climate change on urban areas are expected to be disproportionally high due to a concentration of population and assets – especially in high-risk prone areas - in combination with hazard-amplifying conditions (e.g., increased runoff resulting from soil sealing, or urban heat island effects). Tourism will likely be affected by climate change through reduced thermal comfort, degradation of natural resources, including freshwater availability, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and urban development. The net economic effect on tourism will depend on the country and the season. All Mediterranean countries have significant potential to mitigate climate change through an accelerated energy transition. This will involve phasing down fossil fuel and accelerated development of renewable energies. This ambitious energy transition, reaching beyond the plans and targets announced by governments and policymakers in line with contributions made for the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, requires a significant transformation of energy policies and economic models in Mediterranean countries. While northern rim countries advance towards this transition by gradually diversifying their energy mix, improving energy efficienSUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 8CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC cy and increasing the share of renewable energies, despite investments, some eastern and southern rim countries need support, funding, technology transfer and capacity-building in the framework of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Around 2040, the share of renewable energies could triple to reach 13 to 27% under current transition scenarios. Enhanced regional energy market integration and cooperation are crucial to unleashing cost-effective climate change mitigation. More effective policy responses to climate and environmental changes will require both strengthened mitigation of the drivers of environmental change, such as greenhouse gas emissions, as well as enhanced adaptation to impacts. Poverty, inequalities and gender imbalances presently hamper the achievement of sustainable development and climate resilience in Mediterranean countries. Culture is a key factor to the success of adaptation policies in the highly diverse multicultural setting of the Mediterranean Basin. Aimed at supporting local and vulnerable communities, policies for climate adaptation and environmental resilience need take into account concerns such as justice, equity, poverty alleviation, social inclusion, and redistribution. To support policies for sustainable development with scientific evidence about climate and environmental change, a synthesis of current scientific knowledge, covering most relevant disciplines, sectors and sub-regions is presented by the First Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1). Global environmental change exacerbates existing challenges for the population living around the Mediterranean Sea, through climate change, land use changes, increasing urbanization and tourism, agricultural intensification, pollution, declining biodiversity, resource competition, and socio-economic trends. Environmental, socioeconomic and cultural conditions are highly heterogeneous across the Mediterranean Region (Section 1.1.1), resulting in different manifestations of regional environmental change that require specific adaptation measures as well as enhanced capacity-building. To account for these specificities, a comprehensive risk assessment approach encompassing the entire Mediterranean Basin is needed to provide adequate and timely information as well as data needed for decision makers to design effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. (Section 1.1.1). Despite major research efforts across many disciplines and regions, to date, there has been no comprehensive assessment of risks posed by climate and environmental changes in the Mediterranean Basin. Most countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are likely to face potentially greater risks from climate and environmental changes than other parts of the Mediterranean Basin, but they have limited capacity to monitor important environmental parameters or carry out adequate risk analyses. Effective mitigation and adaptation require integrative studies that go beyond the current knowledge. The main challenges for the Mediterranean are to fill data and knowledge gaps across countries, and to foster the development of high-level climate services, including early warning systems. More research is needed for shortand medium-term projections, as well as large scale programs at the Mediterranean scale to address pressing challenges. (Section 1.1.2). The 1st Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1) has been developed and drafted in order to provide science-based guidance to multiple actors involved in coming up with a response to climate and environmental changes and to reduce associated risks to communities and natural ecosystems in the Mediterranean region (Section 1.3.1.4). The report was developed by the scientific community, based on publications in scientific journals, for policymakers and other stakeholders through the conclusions in its Summary for Policymakers (SPM), as well as for a broader audience of experts through its detailed technical chapters supporting the SPM. The report is also intended to be communicated more broadly to the public through additional efforts of communication and participatory actions. (Section 1.3.2). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS BACKGROUND AND KEY FINDINGS OF THE FIRST MEDITERRANEAN ASSESSMENT REPORT 1 - Background for the assessment 1.11.1 1.2 1.3 9CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC The report assesses risks for the entire Mediterranean Basin (land and sea), associated with four main drivers of environmental change: climate, pollution, land and sea use and non-indigenous species. Throughout the report, scientific confidence in its findings is indicated based on the consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement of the scientific community, using the terms “high”, “medium” and “low”. (Section 1.3.3). 2.1 Climate change Anthropogenic climate change has been observed for many variables in the Mediterranean Basin during recent decades. For the future, the region is expected to remain among the regions most affected by climate change, particularly when it comes to precipitation and the hydrological cycle. 2.1.1 There is robust evidence that the Mediterranean region has significantly warmed. Basin-wide, annual mean temperatures are now 1.54°C above the 1860-1890 level for land and sea areas, i.e. 0.4°C more than the global average change (high confidence). (Fig. SPM.1) (Section 2.2.4.1; Box 2.1). 2.1.2 Multi-model sets of climate simulations show that widespread warming will continue in the Mediterranean during the 21st century (high confidence). (Section 2.2.4.2, Table 2.1). 2.1.2.1 Over land, warming will likely be in the range of 0.9 to 1.5°C or 3.7 to 5.6°C during the 21st century, for low (RCP2.6) or high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), respectively (high confidence). Future regional average warming will exceed the global mean value by 20% on an annual basis and 50% in summer (high confidence). (Fig. SPM.2) (Section 2.2.4.2). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 2 - Drivers of environmental change in the Mediterranean Basin 1.4 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 5°W 0° 5°E 10°E 15°E 20°E 25°E 30°E 35°E 46°N 44°N 44°N 40°N 38°N 36°N 34°N 32°N 30°N -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 46°N 44°N 44°N 40°N 38°N 36°N 34°N 32°N 30°N 5°W 0° 5°E 10°E 15°E 20°E 25°E 30°E 35°E 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 46°N 44°N 42°N 40°N 38°N 36°N 34°N 32°N 30°N 5°W 0° 5°E 10°E 15°E 20°E 25°E 30°E 35°E 46°N 44°N 42°N 40°N 38°N 36°N 34°N 32°N 30°N 5°W 0° 5°E 10°E 15°E 20°E 25°E 30°E 35°E 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 A B C D Figure SPM.1 | Observed changes in temperature and rainfall. Recent trends in temperature (A and B, °C decade-1) and rainfall (C and D, mm day-1 decade-1) in the Mediterranean Basin over land. Panels A & C average for the period 1950-2018, panels B & D for 1980-2018 (Fig. 2.5 and 2.8). 16 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC 3.1.2.3 Tourism activity is at its highest in summer, coinciding with peak demands by irrigated agriculture, creating tensions for water, and this will likely be exacerbated in the future due to climate change (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.2.3). 3.1.2.4 Municipal water use is already constrained in several Mediterranean countries affected by water scarcity, exacerbated by demographic and migratory phenomena, as well as by the limits and obsolescence of water distribution infrastructure (medium confidence). Several northern countries have managed to reduce their municipal withdrawal in absolute values while several southern and eastern countries have the opposite trend (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.2.5). 3.1.2.5 Water-related intersectoral conflicts are likely to be exacerbated in the future because of the interactions between climate change (increasing droughts) and ongoing socio-economic and demographic trends (medium/high confidence). (Section 3.1.5.2). 3.1.3 Disastrous flash floods are frequent in many countries including Italy, France and Spain, affecting mainly the coastal areas, in particular, where population and urban settlements are growing in flood-prone areas. These will likely become more frequent and/or intense due to climate change and surface-sealing (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.3.3). 3.1.4 Climate change, in interaction with other drivers (mainly demographic and socio-economic developments including unsustainable agricultural practices), is likely to impact most of the Mediterranean Basin, through reduced runoff and groundwater recharge, increased water requirements for crops, increased conflicts among users, and increased risk of overexploitation and degradation (high confidence). (Section 3.1.4.1). 3.1.4.1 Impacts of even moderate (1.5 to 2°C) global warming and associated socio-economic pathways are expected to stem from reduced precipitation associated with increased evaporation, leading to a decline in runoff water (Section 3.1.4.1). In many regions, this will likely increase low flow periods in summer and the frequency of no-flow events, and higher drought risks (Section 3.1.4.1). More urban populations are likely to be exposed to severe droughts, and the number of affected people will essentially scale with the temperature increase (high confidence). (Section 3.1.4.1). 3.1.4.2 Aquifer recharge will be strongly impacted by warming and reduced rainfall, particularly in semi-arid areas. At current extraction rates, overexploitation of groundwater is likely to continue having a greater impact on decreasing groundwater levels than climate change (high confidence). (Section 3.1.4.1). 3.1.4.3 Important challenges to groundwater quality in coastal areas are likely to arise from salt-water intrusion driven by enhanced extraction of coastal groundwater aquifers and sea-level rise, as well as from increasing water pollution in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.4.1). 3.1.4.4 Impacts of global warming levels higher than 1.5 to 2°C on water resources by the end of the 21st century will be significantly stronger, generating substantially increased risks in the Mediterranean region (Section 3.1.4.2). The probability of more extreme and frequent meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts will likely increase substantially, with 5 to 10 times more frequent droughts in many Mediterranean regions (high confidence). (Section 3.1.4.2). 3.1.5 The combined dynamics of climate and socio-economic changes suggest that despite an important potential for adaptation to reduce freshwater resource vulnerability, climate change exposure cannot be fully and uniformly counterbalanced. In many regions, socio-economic developments will have greater impact on water availability comSUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (%) North South East Cooling Industrial use Agricultural use Household Figure SPM.5 | Total water consumption rates across four main sectors and three sub-regions (data source: AQUASTAT). 17CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC pared to climate-induced changes (low confidence). (Section 3.1.4.2). 3.1.5.1 Strategies and policies for water management and climate change adaptation are strongly interconnected with all other sectors (e.g., the water-energy-food nexus). Most adaptation and water management strategies rely on the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), which is based on economic efficiency, equity and environmental sustainability, also considering the nexus with agriculture (food production in particular) and energy for building the resilience needed to adapt to climate change. (Section 3.1.5.1). 3.1.5.2 Technical solutions are available to improve water availability and the efficient use of water resources. Seawater desalination is increasingly used to reduce (potable) water scarcity in arid and semi-arid Mediterranean countries, despite known drawbacks in terms of environmental impacts on near-coastal marine ecosystems and energy requirements with associated CO2 emissions. Promising new (solar) technologies are under development, potentially reducing both greenhouse gas emissions and costs (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.5.2). 3.1.5.3 Technology is also expected to contribute significantly to the reduction of wastewater volume, its reclamation and reuse and the reduction of impacts on sea water quality. Agricultural, industrial and watering activities present together approx. 70% water reuse potential. The proposal has been made to recharge aquifers with treated wastewater, but critical issues in terms of water quality remain to be resolved (medium confidence). (Section 3.1.5.2). 3.1.5.4 Inter-basin transfer of water has been implemented in several large-scale schemes, with high social and environmental costs, and risks of conflict (low confidence). (Section 3.1.5.2). 3.1.5.5 Dams for water storage or hydropower exist in most countries, and rivers are diverted for water management in some countries. Large dams often generate social and environmental impacts, such as the destruction of river and wetland ecosystems and the loss of aquatic biodiversity, forced relocation of people and loss of cultural resources. Reductions of these impacts are possible, for example through constructed wetland habitats, and management of fishing and other recreational opportunities and enhanced coordination among countries sharing the same water resources (low confidence) (Section 3.1.5.2). Technological developments also allow for the use of undergroundor subsurface dams, to contribute to sustainable management of groundwater. (Section 3.1.5.2). 3.1.5.6 The strategy of trading commodities (in particular from agriculture) that cannot be produced due to lacking water (virtual water trade) can be considered a form of adaptation. Most Mediterranean countries (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Israel, Turkey) have high footprints in terms of national consumption (above 2000 m3 yr-1 capita-1) (low confidence). (Section 3.1.5.1). 3.1.5.7 Water demand management, i.e. methods used to save (high quality) water, may reduce water consumption or water losses. This includes technical, economic, administrative, financial and/or social measures, with priority for increases in water use efficiency, in particular in the tourism and food sectors and with case-specific solutions integrating traditional knowledge with modern technical achievements (high confidence). (Section 3.1.5.1). 3.1.5.8 The reduction of water losses in all sectors of water use in the Mediterranean is crucial for sustainable management and adaptation strategies. Leakage in urban distribution networks and inefficient irrigation technologies are in urgent need of being addressed (high confidence). (Section 3.1.5.1). 3.1.5.9 Maintaining the traditional Mediterranean diet and shifting back to a locally produced Mediterranean food in conjunction with a reduction of food waste, could generate water savings in comparison to the present increasingly meatbased diet: 753 l for a locally produced diet and 116 l for less waste of water per capita and per day, in addition to benefits for health (obesity, diabetes) (high confidence). (Box 3.1.2). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 18 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 3.2 Food 3.2.1 Warmer and drier climate conditions, with more frequent and intense extreme events, in combination with higher soil salinization, ocean acidification and land degradation, sea level rise and the emergence of new pathogens pose a threat to most elements of the food production system in the Mediterranean Basin (high confidence). 3.2.1.1 Climate extremes pose a threat to the entire agricultural sector. Crop yield reductions are projected for the coming decades in most current areas of production and for most crops if no adaptation takes place. (Section 3.2.2.1). 3.2.1.2 Maize is the crop most affected by climate change, projected to decline in yield by up to 17% in some countries by around 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario and assuming current agricultural practices (medium confidence); it could become infeasible in regions with limited access to irrigation water (medium confidence) (Section 3.2.2.1). Wheat yield losses of 5% to 22% are also projected because of decreased resilience of production and higher inter-annual variability in 2021-2050 under RCP8.5 scenario with no adaptation. Other water demanding crops, e.g., tomatoes, are also at risk. The production of some currently rainfed crops, such as olives, could become infeasible without irrigation (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.2.1). 3.2.1.3 Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may help offset yield losses for some crops, such as wheat and barley, but this effect could impact nutritional quality. Beneficial effects of CO2 are likely limited by water stress conditions as well as by nutrient availability (low confidence). (Section 3.2.2.1). 3.2.1.4 Climate extremes, such as heat stress, droughts, and floods, can cause crop yield losses/ failures, crop quality reduction and impacts on livestock (high confidence) (Section 3.2.1.4). These events can also induce long-term socio-economic and landscape changes (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.1.4). 3.2.1.5 Sea level rise will likely impact the agricultural sector by a direct impact on (or loss of) agricultural areas in coastal zones (e.g., in Egypt), along with up to a three-fold increase in the salinity of irrigation water and soil, and retention of sediments that do not reach the coast (high confidence). (Section 3.2.2.1). 3.2.1.6 New and/or re-emerging pests and pathogens may contribute to larger than estimated losses in the agricultural sector. Food quality and security may also be affected by mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and a higher level of contamination (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.2.1). 3.2.1.7 Total landings from Mediterranean fisheries have declined by 28% from 1994 to 2017 (Section 3.2.1.3, Fig. 3.22). Climate change is projected to heavily affect marine resources in the coming decades. Warming, acidification and water pollution are likely to reduce marine productivity, affect species distribution and trigger local extinction of more than 20% of exploited fish and marine invertebrates by 2050 (high confidence). (Section 3.2.2.2). 3.2.1.8 Perturbations in global markets for agricultural and marine products, potentially caused by environmental change elsewhere, may exacerbate the local impacts of climate change, especially because most Mediterranean countries are net importers of cereal and fodder/feeding products (high confidence). (Section 3.2.1.5). 3.2.2 Adaptation to environmental change will be of key importance to limit and partially offset the impacts of climate change in the food sector (high confidence). 3.2.2.1 Projected yield losses in most crops may be reduced by targeted adaptation strategies, such as crop diversification, adapting the crop calendar and use of new varieties adapted to evolving climate conditions. Strategies based on increased irrigation will have limited applicability in the region. Thus, adapted production of crops such as maize will depend on more drought-resistant varieties (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.3.1). 3.2.2.2 Successful adaptation strategies are based on combining different approaches, i.e. on farming practices (e.g., varieties, rotational patterns, crop diversity, agroforestry) and management (e.g., diversification of income, modifying irrigation practices). Sectoral co-designed climate services may help reduce risks linked to unfavorable climate conditions and extremes (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.3.1). 3.2.3 The food production system on land has the capacity to contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation strategies through nitrogen fertilization optimization, improved water management, better storage of soil organic carbon and carbon sequestration, 19CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC management of crop residues and agroindustry by-products (high confidence). (Section 3.2.3.2). 3.2.3.1 N2O emissions in Mediterranean agro-ecosystems can potentially be mitigated by 30 to 50%, through adjusted fertilization (rate and timing). Replacing mineral nitrogen with organic fertilization provides soil and crops not only with nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and micronutrients, but also enhances organic carbon when using solid fertilizers (i.e., solid manure, compost, etc.), this would be beneficial in many Mediterranean soils with low organic carbon contents (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.3.2). 3.2.3.2 Optimized irrigation techniques may decrease greenhouse gas emissions from Mediterranean regions in perennial crops and intensive vegetable cropping systems on paddy soils (water table management) (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.3.2). 3.2.3.3 Soil organic carbon content in Mediterranean croplands is responsive to management changes such as organic amendments, cover crops and tillage reductions. There is high potential to enhance soil organic carbon storage through land restoration (as proposed by the “4‰ initiative” proposed 2015 by France during the UNFCCC COP21). Organic fertilizers, tillage reduction and residue retention are effective practices in herbaceous systems. Woody systems, in which the carbon storage potential is higher, can benefit from maintaining a soil cover and use of agro-industry byproducts, such as composted olive mill waste, as a source of organic matter (medium confidence). (Section 3.2.3.3). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 3.3 3.3.1 From 1980 to 2016, primary energy consumption in the Mediterranean Basin steadily increased by approx. 1.7% yr-1, mostly due to changing demographic, socio-economic (lifestyle and consumption) and climate conditions (high confidence). (Section 3.3.2.1: Fig. 3.25). 3.3.1.1 The current level of Mediterranean greenhouse gas emissions is approx. 6% of global emissions, close to its proportion of the world population. International climate policy agreements demand an accelerated energy transition in the countries of this region to enable secure, sustainable and inclusive development. (Section 3.3.1). 3.3.1.2 The contribution of oil to energy production has remained stable between 1995 and 2016, while that of coal has gradually decreased. Primary energy production from natural gas has doubled, while the contribution of nuclear power and renewable energy sources contribution has risen by about 40% (high confidence). (Section 3.3.2.1, Fig. 3.28). 3.3.1.3 While northern rim countries advance towards the transition by gradually diversifying their energy mix, improving energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energies, despite recent investments, some eastern and southern rim countries lag behind in these developments (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.2 Projected trajectories for energy demand over the next few decades in the Mediterranean Basin differ significantly between the northern and the eastern/southern rim countries (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.2.1 Energy demand in the north has decreased by 8% since 2010, due to moderate population growth, increasing efficiency and a stable economy, and is expected to continue to decrease. In 2040, northern Mediterranean energy demand would be 22%, 10% and 23% lower than 2015 levels, for three stylized energy policy scenarios (“transition” - TS, “reference” - RS, and “proactive” - PS), respectively (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.2.2 Southern Mediterranean countries have undergone sustained economic and population growth over recent decades. Energy demand is thus expected to continue increasing and to reach 55% (TS), 118% (RS) and 72% (PS) by 2040 when compared to 2005 (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.3 Climate change in the Mediterranean is expected to impact energy production (due to impacts on infrastructure) and energy use (by deEnergy transition in the Mediterranean 20 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC creased heating demand and increased cooling needs). (Section 3.3.2.3). 3.3.3.1 Losses in power generation are projected due to warming in the region, with only marginal impact if global warming does not exceed 2°C (losses <5%), but rapid deterioration beyond 2°C (losses >5% reaching 10% at specific locations) (low confidence). (Section 3.3.3.5). 3.3.3.2 Traditional hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity is expected to decline, due to decreased streamflow and increased water temperature, leading to a 2.5 to 7% decrease in hydropower by 2050 and 10 to 15% decrease in thermopower by 2050 (ranges indicate RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5 estimates vs 1971-2000) (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.5). 3.3.3.3 Weather and climate variability, as well as extreme events, cause significant impacts on the availability and magnitude of renewable energy generation. With the increase of the share of renewable energies, the electricity transmission system will be more exposed to weather variations and may be threatened by specific weather conditions that are usually not considered as extremes (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.2.3). 3.3.3.4 With warming, all Mediterranean countries will experience a net increase in energy demand for cooling. The change in average daily peak electric load from 2006-2012 to 2080-2099 under RCP4.5 climate change scenarios is up to 4-6% (Balkans) and 8-10% under RCP8.5 (Balkans, Spain, Portugal) (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.6, Fig. 3.50). 3.3.4 The Mediterranean Basin has significant potential for additional renewable energy production, on land and in the ocean. These include wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy as well as energy generation by waves and currents (high confidence) (Section 3.3.2.2). There is also potential for high energy efficiency gains (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.4.1 Thermal energy from biomass (mainly wood residues and waste) currently exceeds use of all other renewable energies, mainly for the production of heat or fuel (less for electricity). Overall production of energy from solid biomass is currently 1.56 PW, varying considerably between countries and mainly concentrated on the northern rim. The production of firewood has increased by about 90% in north Africa over the last 60 years and has recently returned to its 1960’s level in southern Europe, after a significant reduction from 1973 to 2009 (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.2.2). 3.3.4.2 Although fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant component of the energy mix until 2040, renewable energies will overtake natural gas and coal and become the second most used energy source in the Mediterranean Basin. In 2040, the share of renewable energies would triple to reach 27% in TS, 13% in the RS and 24% in PS (scenarios “transition” - TS, “reference” - RS, and “proactive” - PS) (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.3). 3.3.4.3 Among the various renewable energy technologies, solar is expected to grow at the fastest pace in both sub-regions. End usage of solar thermal energy, in particular solar water heaters, has high potential in the south and is efficient with a good return on investment (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.3.3). 3.3.4.4 The potential for energy efficiency enhancements is substantial in the Mediterranean Basin, particularly in the south (high confidence). Overall, energy intensity is decreasing in the region, largely related to shifts in the buildings, industry and transport sector (high confidence). (Section 3.3.3.2). 3.3.5 By further improving energy efficiency and deploying renewable energies on a large scale, the entire Mediterranean region can reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damage for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.3). 3.3.5.1 Given socio-economic development and climate change, an important gap between energy supply and demand is expected, particularly in southern and eastern rim countries. This challenge can be met by rapid restructuring of the energy sector, and particularly further accelerated integration of renewable energies (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.4.2). 3.3.5.2 Advantages/measures of the energy transition include: (i) drastic reduction of per capita greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) return on investment in renewable energies, which may lead to savings of up to 54% in energy costs for a given country, and (iii) establishment of a CO2 emissions trading market which will provide economic SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 21CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC incentives for investments in renewable energies (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.4.2). 3.3.5.3 Despite electrification rates of almost 100% in southern and eastern rim countries, the energy dynamics of these countries are largely unsustainable in the long term, as a result of a highly subsidized electricity market (with some exceptions, e.g., Turkey) leading to a systemic misallocation of resources, population growth, increasing urbanization and expected socio-economic changes in the region, and global warming (high confidence). (Section 3.3.4.3). 3.3.5.4 A change in domestic energy policies, including reforming the energy pricing mechanisms, and/or the introduction of tax and regulatory incentives may be needed in some southern and eastern rim countries to reduce the cost disadvantage of renewable energies compared to fossil fuels (medium confidence). (Section 3.3.4.2). 3.3.5.5 Regional energy market integration and cooperation are needed to unleash cost-effective climate change mitigation. (Section 3.3.4.5). Cross-border regulations require the convergence of national regulations to allow interconnections to work effectively. Investment regulation requires the design and development of infrastructure that will be needed for promoting international complementarities and technical standards (high confidence). (Section 3.3.4.5). 3.3.6 Mediterranean islands experience specific threats, challenges and opportunities in the context of global change and energy transition. Geographical and socio-economic singularities of Mediterranean islands put additional pressure on water and energy, leading to resource depletion and environmental degradation, threatening sustainable development, especially during the high touristic season when population doubles for some (high confidence). (Box 3.3.2). 3.3.6.1 On most islands, energy demand is set to increase, due to socio-economic trends including tourism, but also due to expected increase in the use of energy-intensive desalination techniques (medium confidence). (Box 3.3.2). 3.3.6.2 Enhancement of hydropower is limited on most Mediterranean islands, but there is important potential for wind power and hydrogen generation (medium confidence). (Box 3.3.2). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 4.1 Marine ecosystems 4.1.1 Mediterranean marine ecosystems are unique due to their high number of endemic species, but they are also highly vulnerable to local and global pressures including environmental change. (Section 4.1.1.1). 4.1.1.1 The Mediterranean Sea represents the highest proportion of threatened marine habitats in Europe (32%, 15 habitats) with 21% being listed as vulnerable and 11% as endangered. This threat includes several valuable and unique habitats (e.g., seagrasses and coralligenous), supporting an extensive repository of biodiversity. Despite covering only 0.82% of the planet’s ocean surface, the Mediterranean Sea hosts 18% of all known marine species (high confidence). (Section 4.1.1.1). 4.1.1.2 Over millennial time-scales, productivity in the overall oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea responds rapidly to short and long-term changes in nutrient input, either from rivers, winds or upwelling activity, all of which modify the benthic-pelagic ecosystems by extending into the entire food chain (high confidence). (Section 4.1.1.2). 4.1.1.3 Tropical non-indigenous species are spreading into the Mediterranean through current warming trends, causing “tropicalization” of marine fauna and flora (medium confidence). (Section 4.1.1.1). 4.1.1.4 Acidification in Mediterranean waters will likely impact the marine trophic chain, from its primary producers (i.e., coccolithophores and foraminifera) to corals and coralline red algae (medium confidence). (Section 4.1.1.1). 4.1.1.5 Climate change and direct human activities impact the integrity of marine ecosystems by disturbing plankton ecology, increasing jellyfish outbreaks, reducing fish stocks, and more generally causing changes in physiology, growth, reproduction, recruitment and behavior in marine organisms (medium confidence). (Section 4.1.1.1). 4.1.2 The combination of various ongoing climate drivers of environmental change (e.g., sea warming, ocean acidification, and sea level rise) has numerous detectable effects on marine organisms 4 - Ecosystems 22 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC acting at individual, population, and ecosystem scales. Expected future impacts include major reorganizations of the biota distribution, species loss, decrease in marine productivity, increase in non-indigenous species, and potential species extinctions (medium confidence) (Fig. SPM.6). (Section 4.1.2.1). 4.1.2.1 Projections for high emission scenarios show that endemic assemblages will be modified by 2041-2060 and among 75 Mediterranean endemic fish species, 31 will likely extend their geographical range, while 44 will likely reduce it (medium confidence). 4.1.2.2 Alterations of natural habitats for commercially valuable species are likely to occur, resulting in many repercussions on marine ecosystem services such as tourism, fisheries, climate regulation, coastal protection, and ultimately on human health (medium confidence). (Section 4.1.2.2). 4.1.2.3 In general, small pelagic species, thermophilic and/or exotic species of smaller size and of low trophic levels, could benefit from environmental change. Large-sized species, often with commercial interest may find conditions for survival reduced (medium confidence). (Section 4.1.2.1). 4.1.3 Adaptation strategies to reduce environmental change impacts on marine ecosystems need to occur in conjunction with climate mitigation and pollution reduction policies and actions. (Section 4.1.3.4). 4.1.3.1 Due to the diversity of marine community responses to climate change and other stressors in different sub-basins, wider monitoring coverage is needed to improve knowledge of the different adaptation processes that characterize and best suit each zone (high confidence). (Section 4.1.3.1). 4.1.3.2 All measures that improve marine ecosystem health, resilience or biodiversity have the potential to delay and reduce the adverse effects of climate drivers. These include more sustainable fishing practices, reducing pollution from agricultural activity, sustainable tourism and more effective waste management (high confidence). (Section 4.1.3.4). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS CO2 CO2 Warming Ocean acidification Terrestrial runoff Nutrients input & pollution Sea level rise CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Change of the circulation patterns Deoxygenation eutrophication & decreased water transparency Change in the trophic relationships Impacts on biodiversity and nursery effect Decrease organic matter delivery Figure SPM.6 | Climate change drivers potentially affecting marine pelagos and benthos in the Mediterranean Sea. 23CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC 4.1.3.3 Marine protected areas can provide an “insurance” role for biodiversity if they are placed in locations with limited vulnerability to ocean acidification and climate change (medium confidence) (Section 4.1.3.4). While marine protected areas cannot halt climate change and its consequences, such as ocean acidification, they are an important tool for enhancing the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems (high confidence). (Section 4.1.3.2). 4.1.3.4 Developing practical management actions that take into consideration the uniqueness of each species and their responses towards different drivers is crucial to increasing their resilience and plasticity in the context of climate change (high confidence). (Section 4.1.3.3). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 4.2 Coastal ecosystems 4.2.1 The coastal zone, i.e. the area in which the interaction between marine systems and the land dominate ecological and resource systems, is a hotspot of risks, especially in the MENA region (high confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1). 4.2.1.1 Alterations of coastal ecosystem regimes (lagoons, deltas, salt marshes, dune systems, etc.) due to climate change and human activities affect the flow of nutrients to the sea, the magnitude, timing and composition of plankton blooms, significantly increase the number and frequency of jellyfish outbreaks, and could have negative impacts on fisheries (high confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1). 4.2.1.2 I n addition to hosting a wide diversity of wild faunal and floral species, coastal ecosystems are also often used as aquaculture platforms (i.e., fish, shellfish cultures, etc.), and the pressures on them may have significant consequences on their usages (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1). 4.2.1.3 Seagrass meadows in the Mediterranean Sea cover 1.35 to 5 million hectares, between 5 and 17% of the worldwide seagrass habitat. The current loss rate of seagrass is approx. 5% in the Mediterranean. Even in the remaining Posidonia meadows, almost half of the surveyed sites have suffered net density losses of over 20% in 10 years (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1). 4.2.1.4 The rapid spread of non-indigenous fish species represents a serious problem for trophic networks and fisheries in coastal areas, due to the local extinction of species that are preys of these generalist fish (high confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1). 4.2.2 In the future, environmental change, particularly warming, decreasing nutrient replenishment, and ocean acidification, are expected to cause changes in plankton communities at different levels, from phenology and biomass to community structure (medium confidence) (Section 4.2.2.1). Negative impacts are also expected to affect fish, corals and seagrass meadows, while non-indigenous species are expected to be favored (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.2.1). 4.2.2.1 Sea level rise impacts coastal wetlands and estuaries, while reduced precipitation and prolonged droughts will reduce the water discharge and sediments flow of Mediterranean rivers and catchments. Mobile coastlines are likely to retreat or disappear because of the effects of erosion due to the accelerated rise in sea level, with the most severe impacts affecting the least mobile species (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.1.1 and 4.2.2.2). 4.2.2.2 Mediterranean coasts are expected to suffer further severe disturbance due to intensive urbanization and other land uses, which could worsen as land availability decreases and population growth continues. In the future, coastal storms and floods, probably more frequent and intense, will have adverse impacts on ecological balances, as well as human health and well-being, particularly in Mediterranean coastal cities (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.2.3). 4.2.3 Developing more integrated approaches would support adaptation policies for the entire Mediterranean, involving ecosystem-based management of coastal areas, identifying synergies and conflicts, as well as integrating local knowledge and institutions. (Section 4.2.3.6). 4.2.3.1 Suitable adaptation policies include (i) reducing pollution from runoff, both from agriculture, industry and waste management, (ii) defining policies to limit or prevent acidification and (iii) moving aquaculture operations to areas pro- 24 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC tected from critical acidification levels (high confidence). (Section 4.2.3.1). 4.2.3.2 Early Detection and Rapid Response has been recognized as a key aspect for non-indigenous species management. Efficient public awareness campaigns disseminating information to local communities may help to quickly detect unwanted non-indigenous species, together with formalized early warning systems (medium confidence). (Section 4.2.3.3). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 4.3 Terrestrial ecosystems 4.3.1 Terrestrial biodiversity changes in the Mediterranean Basin over the past 40 years have occurred more quickly and extensively than in most other regions in the world. Urbanization and the loss of grasslands are key factors in ecosystem degradation across the region. Since 1990, agricultural abandonment has led to a general increase in forested area of 0.67% yr-1 across the basin, with significant variations between northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean. (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.1 Since about 1980, biodiversity changes have occurred more quickly and extensively in different Mediterranean species groups and habitats than before. Species loss is marked by a general trend of homogenization (loss of vulnerable and rare species) recorded in several species groups, and also by a general simplification of biotic interactions (loss of specialized relationships) (high confidence) (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.2 In all Mediterranean mountain regions, subalpine species move to higher altitudes wherever this is possible (medium confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.3 Almost all countries in the northern sub-region have undergone increase in forest area due to the decline of extensive agriculture and agro-pastoral systems, with rates around 1% yr-1 in Italy, France and Spain. In the southernmost areas, semi-natural ecosystems are more at risk of fragmentation or disappearance due to human pressure from clearing and cultivation, overexploitation of firewood and overgrazing (high confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.4 Agro-system biodiversity has declined dramatically since the early 1950s due to the intensification of agriculture, leading to an increase of highly modified agroecosystems and simplified agricultural landscapes (high confidence). Traditional and extensive agricultural practices, including agro-ecological methods, generally help maintain high biodiversity levels (medium confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.5 Over the last five decades, agricultural production has increasingly been impacted by loss of pollinators, with an increase by a factor of three in the number of crops requiring the intervention of pollinators (medium confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.6 Mediterranean drylands have a significant and specific biodiversity value, with most plants and animals highly adapted to water-limited conditions. (Section 4.3.1.2). European Mediterranean drylands are undergoing an overall increase in the percent of arid area in response to climate change and extensive land abandonment. Almost 15% of the humid Mediterranean domain has been replaced by more arid area since the 60s, while arid area has remained stable (medium confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.1.7 Freshwater ecosystems offer many important ecosystem services (e.g., water supply for drinking, agriculture and industries, water purification, erosion control, recreation, tourism and flood mitigation) (Section 4.3.1.2: freshwater ecosystems). 48% of Mediterranean wetlands were lost between 1970 and 2013, with 36% of wetland-dependent animals in the Mediterranean threatened by extinction (high confidence). (Section 4.3.1.2). 4.3.2 Drier climate and increased human pressure are expected to cause significant impacts on terrestrial biodiversity, forest productivity, burnt area, freshwater ecosystems and agro-systems during the 21st century (medium confidence). (Section 4.3.2). 4.3.2.1 All factors considered, a general reduction of forest productivity in the mediumand long-term is likely associated with higher mortality and dieback, particularly for species or populations growing in water-limited environments, 25CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS 12.3% 16.5% 36.7% 14.5% 20.0% Transition to drier types Arid Hyper-arid Semi-arid Semi-arid Semi-arid Arid Dry Subhumid H umid Dry Subhumid H umid Drylands Hyper - arid Arid Dry Subhumid Semi-arid Humid & Cold Baseline 1981-2010 GWL1.5 GWL2 GWL4 11.6% MED land to drier types 20.1% MED land to drier types 41.3% MED land to drier types GWL1.5 GWL2 GWL4 6 . 6 % 1 . 3 % 2 . 6 % H u m i d & C o l d H y p e r - a r i d A r i d H u m i d & C o l d H y p e r - a r i d A r i d D r y S u b h u m i d S e m i - a r i d H u m i d & C o l d H y p e r - a r i d A r i d D r y S u b h u m i d S e m i - a r i d D r y S u b h u m i d S e m i - a r i d 9 . 6 % 8 . 8 % 5 . 1 % 3 . 9 % 8 . 3 % 1 5 . 2 % 4 . 3 % 0 . 4 % 1 . 2 % 5 . 6 % A B C D Figure SPM.7 | Distribution of drylands and their subtypes based on observations for the 1981-2010 period. Areal cover of drylands per subtype is estimated within the boundaries of the Mediterranean SREX region (dashed line). (B, C, D) Distribution of projected dryland transitions for three Global Warming Levels (GWLs: +1.5°C, +2°C and +4°C above preindustrial levels), relative to the baseline period. Grey shaded areas in (B), (C) and (D) are drylands of the baseline period. Chord diagrams denote the areal extent of projected transitions in each dryland subtype for each GWL (proportional to the total extent of land changing to drier types) (see Section 4.3.2.4, Fig. 4.15) 32 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC in the coming decades, their presence will likely increase substantially in southern and eastern countries where biodiversity may be high but capacity to manage non-indigenous species is low. In such places, unmanaged non-indigenous species may threaten human livelihoods (Section 6.12.1). Only few non-native species succeed in establishing in their new locations and gaining importance, but those that do can result in billions of dollars in costs (medium confidence). (Section 6.12.2). 6.10 Only few Mediterranean cities have local climate plans that consider mitigation and adaptation in a joint manner. There is an urgent need for more integrated local climate plans. Cities, in particular, need to become more resilient to environmental change as impacts will be disproportionally high in these locations due to a concentration of population and assets in combination with hazard-amplifying conditions (e.g., increased runoff through soil sealing, urban heat island effect). This requires knowledge exchange and promotion of ambitious action against climate and environmental change and new approaches to urban development (medium confidence). (Section 6.13). SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC This publication has been made possible through the collaboration of 190 contributors, who are listed in the full report. Editors: Wolfgang Cramer, Joël Guiot, Katarzyna Marini. Editorial Committee: Semia Cherif (Tunisia), Wolfgang Cramer (France), Carlo Giupponi (Italy), Joël Guiot (France), Manfred Lange (Cyprus/Germany), Piero Lionello (Italy), Katarzyna Marini (France), Maria Snoussi (Morocco), Andrea Toreti (Italy), Elena Xoplaki (Greece/Germany). Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. An online version of this work is published at https://www.medecc.org/first-mediterranean-assessment-report-mar1/ which permits re-use, distribution and reproduction in any medium for non-commercial purposes providing appropriate credit to the original work is given. All versions of this work may contain content reproduced under license from third parties. Permission to reproduce this third-party content must be obtained from these third-parties directly. Cover design: Pandaroo (Péronnas) Graphs (re)desing and layout: Zen design studio (Marseille) Copy-editing by Connected Language Services The UNEP/MAP – Barcelona Convention Secretariat, through its Plan Bleu Regional Activity Center, and the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean are working in partnership to support MedECC. The MedECC Secretariat is supported and funded by UfM, through a grant provided by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), hosted by Plan Bleu in Marseille, France. The content and views expressed in this document are purely those of the authors and may not, in any circumstances, be interpreted as stating an official position of the supporting institutions. Neither the supporting institutions nor any person acting on their behalf may be held responsible for the use, which may be made of the information contained therein. The supporting institutions does not guarantee the accuracy of the information included in this document, nor does it accept any responsibility for any use thereof. Reference herein to any specific products, specifications, processes or services by trade name, trademark, manufacturer or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation or favoring by the supporting institutions. With financial support from Supporting institutions www.medecc.org/first-mediterranean-assessment-report-mar1/ enquiries: [email protected] ISBN: 978-2-9577416-1-8 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5513887