Supplementary material - Climate change will facilitate the establishment of potentially impactful plants on currently treeless sub-Antarctic islands
Abstract
S1. Size (km2), jurisdiction or dependency, elevation (m) and established alien plant species of the 12 (sub)-Antarctic islands included in the study (Leihy et al., 2023). S2. True-skill statistic (TSS), sensitivity, and specificity for each species and model. S3. Plots of variable importance of all variables in the three models, averaged across all species. S4. Value ranges of variables on the sub-Antarctic islands used in the three models. Derived from Karger et al., 2017. S5. Projected percentages of suitable cells for all 2,220 species for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided for each of the variable sets. S6. Projected percentages of suitable cells for all 2,220 species for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. The percentages of cells for which each three variable sets agree on suitability are given (i.e. consensus projections). S7. Projected percentages of suitable cells for species established on the respective (sub-)Antarctic islands for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. The percentages of cells for which each three variable sets agree on suitability are given (i.e. consensus projections) (Leihy et al., 2023). S8. Ratio of change in suitable cells, as compared to projections under recent climatic conditions, for each GCM and scenario combination. Ratios for both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. Ratios of suitability are calculated as the amount of suitable cells, divided by the total cells. The ratio of change is subsequently calculated by subtracting the ratio of each GCM x scenario combination by the ratio of projections under recent climate. S9. Results of the factorial ANOVA assessing the effects of General Circulation Model (GCM), climate change scenario, and species distribution model on predicted climate suitability for alien plant species in the sub-Antarctic. The analysis includes both corrected and uncorrected projections. Significant main effects and interactions are observed for all factors, with the strongest effect from model (i.e. variable set) choice. S10. Count of growth forms projected on each of the islands, for each GCM and scenario combination. The ratio of woody to herbaceous species is provided. S11. Plot showing the projected number of alien woody species on the islands, for each GCM and scenario combination. S12. Estimated Marginal Means (EMM) of the GLMM for scenario and GCM, and their combinations. S13. Contrasts of Estimated Marginal Means (EMM) of the GLMM between each GCM and scenarios, and their combinations.
Full text
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 12 14 16 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0 20 40 60 1.8 2.1 2.4 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0 10 20 30 40 0.20 0.25 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 17 19 21 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 8 10 12 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 7 8 9 10 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0 5 10 16 18 20 22 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam 0.0000 0.0025 0.0050 0.0075 0.0100 300 350 400 450 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Amsterdam
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 6 8 10 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0 25 50 75 100 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0 20 40 60 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 10 12 14 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 4 6 8 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0 1 2 3 4 567 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 1000 1200 1400 1600 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0 1 2 3 8 10 12 14 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland 0.000 0.005 0.010 300 350 400 450 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Auckland
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 5 6 7 8 9 10 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0 30 60 90 120 2.0 2.4 2.8 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0 25 50 75 100 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0 1 2 8 10 12 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 4 6 8 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0 2 4 6 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 1200 1400 1600 1800 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0 10 20 8 10 12 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 350 400 450 500 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Campbell
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 468 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0 20 40 60 2.4 2.8 3.2 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0 5 10 15 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0.0 0.5 1.0 7 8 9 10 11 12 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 2 4 6 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 6 7 8 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0e+00 2e−04 4e−04 6e−04 2000 3000 4000 5000 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 6 8 10 12 14 16 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet 0.0000 0.0005 0.0010 0.0015 0.0020 500 750 1000 1250 1500 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Crozet
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3 5 7 9 11 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 2 3 4 5 6 7 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0 5 10 15 0.2 0.3 0.4 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 10 12 14 16 18 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 −2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 6 8 10 12 14 16 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 600 800 1000 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 15 20 25 30 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 150 200 250 300 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Falklands
0 1 2 3 4 −10 −5 0 5 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0 100 200 300 2.0 2.5 3.0 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0 20 40 60 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0 1 2 3 −5 0 5 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0 1 2 −15 −10 −5 0 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0 2 4 6 8 6 8 10 12 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0e+00 5e−04 1e−03 1000 2000 3000 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 300 600 900 1200 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Heard
0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0 3 6 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 246 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0 5 10 15 20 0.3 0.4 0.5 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 −5 0 5 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.0000 0.0003 0.0006 0.0009 0.0012 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 12 15 18 21 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 500 1000 1500 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Kerguelen
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 −2 0 2 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 234 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0 20 40 0.25 0.30 0.35 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 246 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 −10.0 −7.5 −5.0 −2.5 0.0 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0000 0.0005 0.0010 0.0015 1000 1500 2000 2500 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.0 0.5 1.0 13 15 17 19 21 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 200 400 600 800 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 King George
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 345678 bio1 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0 20 40 60 2.0 2.5 3.0 bio2 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0 30 60 90 0.35 0.40 0.45 bio3 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 6 8 10 12 bio5 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 12345 bio6 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 bio7 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 1000 1200 1400 1600 bio12 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0 2 4 7 8 9 10 11 bio15 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 300 350 400 450 bio16 density GCM Recent IPSL − 126 IPSL − 370 IPSL − 585 MPI − 126 MPI − 370 MPI − 585 UKESM1 − 126 UKESM1 − 370 UKESM1 − 585 Macquarie