Analysing the Energy Implications of Hydrogen Deployment in the European Union with an Integrated Assessment Model

Analysing the Energy Implications of Hydrogen Deployment in the European Union with an Integrated Assessment Model Juan Manuel Campos-Rodríguez*, Íñigo Capellán-Pérez, David Álvarez-Antelo, Fernando Antonio Frechoso-Escudero Institution: Group of Energy, Economy and System Dynamics (GEEDS), University of Valladolid (UVa) *Contact: [email protected] INTRODUCTION •Hydrogen (H2) and its derivatives are considered key drivers of the energy transition, offering a potential decarbonisation solution for hard-to-abate sectors, although uncertainties and limitations persist due to their specific physical-chemical characteristics. •However, their representation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) remains limited, and large-scale implications of their deployment are still insufficiently assessed. •This study addresses this gap by incorporating detailed modelling of the H2 sector into WILIAM, a dynamic, multi-regional IAM, to examine the energy system implications of H2 deployment, using the European Union (EU) as a case study. •Key H2 end-uses and H2 supply technologies were identified (cf. Fig. 1) and modelled based on their underlying physical processes (e.g., efficiencies) to represent energy flows. •Non-energy uses (refineries, chemicals and steel) builds on previous work (Campos-Rodríguez et al., 2025). •The WILIAM IAM v1.4 was modified to incorporate the H2 demand and supply components. •This integration enables a long term (~2050), systemwide evaluation of H2 deployment, capturing key impacts across the energy chain (electrification, renewable energy sources (RES) needs, etc.) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, among others. Fig. 1. H2value chain modelled in this study Baseline H2 ind syn Green H2 ind syn Electrolytic H2 for non-energy uses 0% 100% replacement of existing grey H2 processes + 28% primary steel H2 based synthetic fuels 0% 15% replacement on final energy demand for gases and 4% liquids %RES in electricity generation 43% 43% 75% Table 1. Synthesis of the scenarios simulated for EU (all the targets set out in the scenarios are met by 2050) •H2demand: The inclusion of alternative H2uses raises overall demand compared to current uses by +365% (cf. Fig. 2a). •Massive electrification: In the H2 scenarios, indirect electrification associated with electrolytic H2 increases electricity demand by +75% (cf. Fig. 2b). •Huge infrastructure needs: H2 deployment significantly influences RES infrastructure requirements per capita by up to +180% due to large-scale electrification (cf. Fig. 2c). •Increase in primary energy (PE) consumption: H2 pathways increase total PE consumption by up to +26%, reflecting the inefficiencies of H2-related processes (cf. Fig. 2d). •CO2 emissions in the energy system: H2 scenarios yield +12% higher CO2 emissions under current RES penetration and -13% with a highly decarbonised electricity mix (cf. Fig. 2e). CONCLUSION •The integration of the H2 sector in the IAM WILIAM enables a long term, dynamic assessment of large-scale H2 deployment for both energy and non-energy uses, revealing substantial effects on electrification, RES installed capacity requirements, total PE consumption, and CO2 emissions in the energy system. •These findings are illustrative, as a thorough assessment requires a comprehensive storyline affecting all sectors. •Future research should broaden EU scope, include sensitivity analysis, and ensure full validation of the H2 submodule. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101137758. Juan Manuel Campos-Rodríguez (presenting) acknowledges financial support from an FPU (Formación de Profesorado Universitario) Grant of the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (no. FPU23/03998). Fig. 2. Preliminary results of the model for the EU SCENARIOS & PRELIMINARY RESULTS METHODS