Assessing Synergies and Trade-offs of National Net-Zero Scenarios
Duffy, Colm; Henn, Daniel; Mckeon, Caroline; SABER, Takfarinas; Black, Kevin; Byrne, Ken; Buckley, Yvonne; Styles, David
- Publisher
- Zenodo
- Language
- en
Abstract
The achievement of net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a critical climate change mitigation goal with significant potential for economic, social and environmental co-benefits and trade-offs. Yet, many transition assessments overlook broader sustainability considerations and spatial heterogeneity. This study presents a multi-scale modelling framework that integrates national and regional scales to evaluate potential trade-offs and co-benefits of transition pathways in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. Using the GOBLIN Lite model, this study generates a large portfolio of national-level scenarios, filtered to include only those meeting NZ GHG targets (CO2 e ≤ 0 by 2050), and clustered into distinct input and land use configurations. Representative transition pathways for each cluster were downscaled using pollution impact potential-based rules and analysed across 37 water catchments, representing all of Ireland, using the GeoGOBLIN model. This enables multi-scale assessment of climate, economic, biodiversity, and water quality outcomes. While aggregate results suggest potential for net-positive environmental and economic outcomes, the analysis also reveals regional disparities and spatial trade-offs, particularly in nutrient loading and biodiversity enhancement. These findings demonstrate how spatially explicit, multi-criteria modelling can support more transparent, integrated, and context-sensitive planning for sustainable AFOLU transitions.
Full text
Assessing Synergies and Trade-offs of National Net-Zero Scenarios Introduction Objectives The achievement of net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a critical climate change mitigation goal. Yet, assessments often overlook broader sustainability considerations and spatial variability To present a multi-scale modelling framework to evaluate the potential trade-offs and co-benefits of NZ transition pathways within the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. The study uses Ireland as a case study, reconciling national NZ ambitions with local landscape constraints and co-benefit opportunities Methods 19,600 national AFOLU scenarios clustered into three Representative Pathways (RPs): MS-CF: Mixed livestock with conifer afforestation MS-BF: Mixed livestock with broadleaf afforestation MS-SA: Mixed livestock with spared area + rewetting Downscaled to 37 Irish water catchments Livestock reductions applied using Nitrogen Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, prioritising high-pressure catchments. Evaluated climate mitigation, economic value, biodiversity, and water quality outcomes across scales. Results Conclusion All three RPs achieve NZ GHG status by approximately 2045 MS-CF maximises climate and economic impact but sacrifices biodiversity and water quality . MS-BF maximises biodiversity while maintaining moderate performance in other areas . MS-SA performs best on water quality but delivers more modest outcomes elsewhere . Colm Duffy1, Daniel Henn1, Caroline McKeon2, Takfarinas Saber3, Kevin Black4, Kenneth A. Byrne5, Yvonne Buckley2, David Styles1 ¹University of Galway; ²Trinity College Dublin; ³Lero–University of Galway; ⁴FERS Ltd, Meath; ⁵University of Limerick, Ireland Spatial heterogeneity matters: National gains conceal local trade-offs. Land reallocation is key: Outcomes depend on how spared land is used (forestry type, rewetting) Policy support sustains change: Targeted payments for carbon and biodiversity can support incomes. A replicable framework: Supports screening of transition pathways and prioritisation of deeper analyses. Acknowledgements FORESIGHT Project and Co-Centre for Climate + Biodiversity + Water (Grant 22/CC/11103)
