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Jon Sampedro1,2, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs1, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven1, Cathryn Tonne3, Claudio Belis4, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino1,2,5 INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY SCENARIOS •Air pollution is a major global health threat, with significant and growing regional inequalities •Within countries, air pollution disproportionately affects vulnerable groups •Climate policies can reduce air pollution, but their effect on existing pollution disparities is unclear. Evaluating interand intra-regional air pollution inequalities in a decarbonized world Name Description Central SSP2 socioeconomic and emission factor projections, limited deployment for nuclear, biomass and NETs. Climate&Pollution Implementation of more ambitious air pollution policies and more optimistic penetration of end -of-pipe technologies. Techno - Optimistic No limitation on the deployment of nuclear energy and bioenergy. High availability of NET technologies. Sustainable Exogenous implementation of a transition to plant -based diet and shift to public and active transport modes. •The Central scenario projects a global decline in most air pollutants by 2050, driven by cleaner energy in developed economies. •PM2.5 levels are expected to decline in most countries •Trends vary by scenario •Connection of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-GRAPHICS) with rfasst •GCAM_GRAPHICS incorporates consumer heterogeneity in the form of income deciles in household energy, transport and food sectors •rfasst-v2.0 estimates PM2.5 concentration levels, as well as the resulting health impacts RESULTS GCAM_GRAPHICS Scenarios Air pollutant emissions rfasst-v2.0 Premature mortalities (AAP) PM2.5 concentration MAIN FINDINGS ❖Current climate pledges are insufficient to prevent substantial global health impacts from air pollution. ❖Globally coordinated efforts must target PM2.5 reduction in the most affected regions. ❖Targeted policies are needed to protect lower-income groups, who can face the highest exposure within countries IAMC –18th Annual Meeting Búzios, November 11-13, 2025 [email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research is funded by the European Union’s Horizon research program under grant agreements 101060679 (GRAPHICS) 1Basque Center for Climate Change, 2IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science 3ISGlobal, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública 4European Commission –Joint Research Centre 5Department of Economic Analysis, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) •Despite overall PM2.5 reductions, air pollution is projected to cause 4.3 - 5.1 million annual premature deaths by 2050, driven by global population growth and aging •The highest per-capita mortality rates are concentrated in North Africa, Eastern Europe, and South Asia OBJECTIVE To analyse future air pollution inequalities, both across and within regions, under stakeholder-informed decarbonization scenarios based on existing national climate policies and pledges •Scenarios were co-developed with diverse stakeholders, through bilateral expert dialogues to ensure their robustness and relevance •All scenarios share an identical decarbonization pathway, wherein all countries implement their announced NDCs and LTTs. •Significant within-region emissions inequalities, with the wealthiest 10% disproportionately contributing to emissions •No universal global link exists between income and PM2.5 exposure, as patterns vary by country -> wealthier groups are often more exposed in some regions, while the opposite is true in several developing economies (e.g., India)
