A pathway design framework for national freight transport decarbonization strategies

Yann Briand1; Dipti Gupta2; Marcio de Almeida D’Agosto3; George Vasconcelos Goes3; Daniel Neves Schmitz-Gonçalves3; Amit Garg4; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan4,5; Fadiel Ahjum6; Hilton Trollip6; Bryce McCall6, Ucok W.R. Siagan7; Retno Gumilang Dewi7, Steve Pye8, François Combes9, Martin Koning9 A pathway design framework for national freight transport decarbonization strategies https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2412709 Transport & freight policy context •National transport mitigation strategies currently overlooked freight compared to passenger, while it represents 40% of global transport emissions. However, freight policy actors, the socio-organizational and -economic systems, and measures are very different from passenger, and should receive more attention to be treated correctly. •When freight is included, most actions are focused on technologies: on the development of low-carbon fuels and vehicles, or on technical solutions to improve fuel consumption. Lessons from literature review : •A sustainable freight transport decarbonization requires the consideration of systemic changes related to demand management, supply chain reorganization and modal shifts, combined with technological shifts. •Many different models, tools, analysis focusing on specific independent drivers, a lot on technological drivers, and rarely articulating transport demand changes with vehicle changes, and rarely in the context of national net-zero with other sectors •No single model can produce a comprehensive picture accounting for all drivers of freight transport demand, modal choices, logistics efficiency and low-carbon technology shifts •Pathway design methods rarely designed around stakeholders’ drivers, and often based on complex models with lack of transparency Method Figure 1. DDP Pathway design framework Test results – implementation in Brazil, India & South Africa Key lessons about the relevance of the framework to 1. Articulate both systemic & technological options towards net-zero: •this research initiated a better understanding of the drivers to moderate demand (4Rs new economy), shorten supply chains and consequences to facilitate modal shift through storyline discussion and data analysis of key dashboard indicators (type of goods, distance analysis, and disaggregation through tons, tkm, vkm), however due to a lack of confidence, the produced pathways did not properly consider such shifts •the drivers of modal shift have been much better understood, analyzed and reflected in the produced pathways, which all assess the need for a modal shift to rail & IWWC by 2050 to contribute to carbon neutrality. 2. Facilitate interactions and implementation discussion with real-world actors - the storyline framework enabled to go more in depth into some freight-specific questions and to gather inputs for the modeling exercise ➢Country-driven analysis are important to understand the role of freight compared to other sectors in reaching net-zero ➢Systemic organizational changes: modal shift (and demand management) ➢Vehicles and fuel supply changes: shift to EVs and biofuels 1.IDDRI-Sciences Po; 2.IIML; 3.UFRJ; 4.IIMA; 5.NIES; 6.UCT; 7.ITB; 8.UCL; 9.UGE Modeland tool-agnostic Iterative and backcasting from 2050-70 Structuring stakeholderoriented and driversoriented descriptions Qualitative & semiquantitative Gathering key aggregated and relevant disaggregation of demand, assets, energy, and emission data for policy discussions Quantitative only Research question/Objectives: How can we build an open-access and transparent pathway design framework supporting: 1. the design of ambitious pathways articulating both systemic organizational and technological mitigation options using all existing research, models and analysis to enable a broader set of options to be examined, while at the same time ensuring the consistency of qualitative and quantitative pathway descriptions. 2. the implementation and interactions with real-world implementing actors such as shippers, carriers, infrastructure developers, vehicle manufacturers and energy providers based on a combined qualitative-quantitative method Storyline structure: 5 key areas of transformations to capture all drivers of emissions and stakeholders’ point of view 1. The future demographic, economic, spatial and socio-cultural structure of consumption, production and trades (Cargo owners/industrials, consumers) 2. The development and management of transport and logistics infrastructures (Infrastructure developers and operators) 3. The development of vehicles, trucks technologies and penetration in the stock (vehicle manufacturers, carriers) 4. The organization of logistics operations (supply and delivery), modal and vehicle choices (cargo owners, logistics service providers, carriers) 5. The production and distribution of fuels (energy providers) Dashboard structure: 4 main series of indicators selected to capture specific policyquestions 1. Freight demand indicators: tons & tkm for 6 categories of goods, tkm by distances (<150&>150km), nature of transport (nat, imp/exp, transit) and modes 2. Road transport services indicators: tkm & vkm for HGV/LCV and distances, HGV/LCV by empty running factor, load factor, stock & sales by 5 motorizations 3&4. Energy consumption & emission indicators: by modes, type of fuels, and road vehicles & fuels 3 main steps to design national pathways and describe them around 2 main modes of representations (storyline & dashboard) 123 Research partners Macro-economic modeling Transport sector modeling UFRJ-CentroClima (Brazil) IMACLIM-BR TEMA IIMA/IMML (India) IMACLIM-IND AIM/Enduse UCT (South Africa) SAGE SATIM What matters: 1. Carbon neutrality dates matters (2050-BRA/SA; 2070IND) 2. 2050 economic and industrial development perspectives (IND vs BRA/SA) 3. Different LULUCF & Energy system matters 4. Freight system specificities (see below) Key overall policy lessons 1. Policy-relevant freight strategies to net-zero should be adapted to national development, industrial and logistics contexts, not only energy the energy and vehicle manufacturing context, consider all demand and supply side options, and dynamics in other emitting sub-sectors. From this exercise, using an integrated economy-wide perspective looking at carbon neutrality in 2050 & 2070 for India, freight emissions have to reduce by 2050 by at least 30% in Brazil, 50% in India and almost 100% in South Africa compared to 2020 levels. 2. In addition to road haulers, road vehicle manufacturers and energy providers (usual suspects), national strategies must not forget to drive changes among freight owners and shippers, customers, infrastructure developers and operators, as well as logistics service providers. The maturity of the discussion is lower on their action levers and pathways should be reflect them. Contact: [email protected]