Methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development
Abstract
The subject of the study is a methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development.The purpose of the study is to identify the structure, tools and methods of the model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development.Research methods. The article uses the dialectical method of scientific knowledge, the method of analysis and synthesis, the comparative method, and the method of data generalization.Results of the work. The article proposes a methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development. The structure of the model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation is presented, the main tasks and stages of the model are identified, the tools and methods are outlined, the key success factors of the model are identified, and the results of implementing the model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation are determined.Conclusions. The methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development demonstrates a comprehensive approach to risk management when implementing ICT in the context of national economic development. It emphasizes the importance of identifying, assessing and prioritizing risks, as well as developing and implementing risk management strategies. Monitoring and control of risks is a key element for ensuring the successful implementation of ICT and achieving the expected positive results for the economy.
Full text
5 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww © ÊÎËÎIJÉ×ÓÊ À. Â., 2025 ÓÄÊ 330.34.014–026.23:338.22:303.1:005.334 ÊÎËÎIJÉ×ÓÊ À. Â. Ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè Ïðåäìåòîì äîñë³äæåííÿ º ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Ìåòîþ äîñë³äæåííÿ º âèçíà÷åííÿ ñòðóêòóðè, ³íñòðóìåíò³â òà ìåòîä³â ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Ìåòîäè äîñë³äæåííÿ. Ó ñòàòò³ âèêîðèñòàí³ ä³àëåêòè÷íèé ìåòîä íàóêîâîãî ï³çíàííÿ, ìåòîä àíàë³çó ³ ñèíòåçó, ïîð³âíÿëüíèé ìåòîä, ìåòîä óçàãàëüíåííÿ äàíèõ. Ðåçóëüòàòè ðîáîòè. Ó ñòàòò³ çàïðîïîíîâàíî ìåòîäîëîã³÷íó ìîäåëü îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Íàâåäåíî ñòðóêòóðó ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ, âèçíà÷åí³ îñíîâí³ çàâäàííÿ òà åòàïè ìîäåë³, îêðåñëåí³ ³íñòðóìåíòè òà ìåòîäè, ³äåíòèô³êîâàíî îñíîâí³ ôàêòîðè óñï³õó ìîäåë³, âèçíà÷åí³ ðåçóëüòàòè âïðîâàäæåííÿ ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ. Âèñíîâêè. Ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè ´ðóíòóºòüñÿ íà êîìïëåêñíîìó ï³äõîä³ äî óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè ïðè âïðîâàäæåíí³ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Âîíà ï³äêðåñëþº âàæëèâ³ñòü ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿, îö³íêè òà ïð³îðèòèçàö³¿ ðèçèê³â, à òàêîæ ðîçðîáêè òà âïðîâàäæåííÿ ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. Ìîí³òîðèíã òà êîíòðîëü ðèçèê³â º îñíîâíèì åëåìåíòîì äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ óñï³øíîãî âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ òà äîñÿãíåííÿ î÷³êóâàíèõ ïîçèòèâíèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â äëÿ åêîíîì³êè. Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: ðèçèêè, ñòðàòå㳿, ìîí³òîðèíã, ìîäåëþâàííÿ, ³äåíòèô³êàö³ÿ, ³íôîðìàö³éíî–êîìóí³êàö³éí³ òåõíîëî㳿, ê³ëüê³ñíèé àíàë³ç, ÿê³ñíèé àíàë³ç, ïð³îðèòåòí³ñòü, íàö³îíàëüíà åêîíîì³êà. ANATOLY KOLODIYCHUK Methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development The subject of the study is a methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development. The purpose of the study is to identify the structure, tools and methods of the model for assessing ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ
6´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww Ïîñòàíîâêà ïðîáëåìè. Âïðîâàäæåííÿ ³íôîðìàö³éíî–êîìóí³êàö³éíèõ òåõíîëîã³é (²ÊÒ) º îñíîâíèì ôàêòîðîì ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè, îäíàê ñóïðîâîäæóºòüñÿ çíà÷íèìè ðèçèêàìè. Ðîçðîáêà àäåêâàòíî¿ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íî¿ ìîäåë³ îö³íêè öèõ ðèçèê³â º âàæëèâèì çàâäàííÿì äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åôåêòèâíîãî òà ñòàëîãî ðîçâèòêó. Çàïðîïîíîâàíà ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü ïîâèííà âðàõîâóâàòè ñïåöèô³êó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè, çîêðåìà ¿¿ ñòðóêòóðó, ð³âåíü ðîçâèòêó ³íôðàñòðóêòóðè, ïðàâîâå ïîëå òà êóëüòóðí³ îñîáëèâîñò³. Ìîäåëü ïåðåäáà÷ຠ³äåíòèô³êàö³þ ïîòåíö³éíèõ ðèçèê³â, ¿õ êëàñèô³êàö³þ òà îö³íêó ç âèêîðèñòàííÿì êîìïëåêñó ê³ëüê³ñíèõ òà ÿê³ñíèõ ìåòîä³â. Åôåêòèâí³ñòü çàïðîïîíîâàíî¿ ìîäåë³ çàëåæèòü â³ä ¿¿ àäàïòèâíîñò³ äî çì³ííèõ óìîâ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè òà ìîæëèâîñò³ âðàõóâàííÿ íîâèõ ðèçèê³â, ùî âèíèêàþòü ó çâ’ÿçêó ç ðîçâèòêîì ²ÊÒ. Âïðîâàäæåííÿ ìîäåë³ äàñòü ìîæëèâ³ñòü ïðèéìàòè îá´ðóíòîâàí³ ð³øåííÿ ùîäî ³íâåñòóâàííÿ â ²ÊÒ, ì³í³ì³çóâàòè âòðàòè òà ï³äâèùèòè êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæí³ñòü íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Àíàë³ç îñòàíí³õ äîñë³äæåíü òà ïóáë³êàö³é. Ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷í³ îñîáëèâîñò³ ðîçâèòêó ²Ò–åêîíîì³êè òà ð³çí³ àñïåêòè äîñë³äæåííÿ åêîíîì³÷íèõ ïðîöåñ³â â ²Ò–ñåêòîð³ âèâ÷àëèñÿ òàêèìè â÷åíèìè, ÿê: Âàñèëü÷åíêî À.Î., Âîéíàðåíêî Ì.Ï., Ëóê’ÿíîâà Â.Â., Ïàâëåíêî Î.Î., Ñîêîëåíêî Ñ.². òà ³íø³. Áàãàòî äîñë³äæåíü çîñåðåäæóþòüñÿ íà âèì³ðþâàíí³ âïëèâó ²ÊÒ íà ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü ïðàö³, çàãàëüíó ôàêòîðíó ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü ³ åêîíîì³÷íå çðîñòàííÿ (Êîðîëü ².Â., Ïîëÿíñüêà ß.Ë., Ðàãìåí À., Ñòîðîæåíêî Î.Â.). Îäíàê, âèâ÷åííþ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íî¿ ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ ïðèä³ëåíî íåäîñòàòíüî óâàãè, ³ òîìó âîíî ïîòðåáóº ïîäàëüøîãî äîñë³äæåííÿ. Ìåòà ñòàòò³ – âèçíà÷åííÿ ñòðóêòóðè, ³íñòðóìåíò³â òà ìåòîä³â ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Âèêëàä îñíîâíîãî ìàòåð³àëó. Öÿ ìîäåëü ïåðåäáà÷ຠñòðóêòóðîâàíèé ï³äõ³ä äî ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿, àíàë³çó òà óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè, ïîâ’ÿçàíèìè ç âïðîâàäæåííÿì ³íôîðìàö³éíî–êîìóí³êàö³éíèõ òåõíîëîã³é (²ÊÒ) â êîíòåêñò³ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Ðîçãëÿíåìî ñòðóêòóðó ö³º¿ ìîäåë³. I. Ìåòà òà çàâäàííÿ ìîäåë³: Ìåòà: Çàáåçïå÷èòè åôåêòèâíå óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè, ïîâ’ÿçàíèìè ç âïðîâàäæåííÿì ²ÊÒ, äëÿ ìàêñèì³çàö³¿ ïîçèòèâíîãî âïëèâó íà ðîçâèòîê íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Çàâäàííÿ: 1) ³äåíòèô³êóâàòè ïîòåíö³éí³ ðèçèêè, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç âïðîâàäæåííÿì ²ÊÒ; 2) îö³íèòè éìîâ³ðí³ñòü òà âïëèâ öèõ ðèçèê³â; 3) ðîçðîáèòè ñòðàòå㳿 óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè äëÿ ì³í³ì³çàö³¿ íåãàòèâíîãî âïëèâó òà ìàêñèì³çàö³¿ ìîæëèâîñòåé; 4) çàáåçïå- ÷èòè ìîí³òîðèíã òà êîíòðîëü çà ðèçèêàìè ïðîòÿãîì óñüîãî æèòòºâîãî öèêëó âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ. II. Îñíîâí³ åòàïè ìîäåë³: Âèçíà÷åííÿ êîíòåêñòó: – Àíàë³ç íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè: âèçíà÷åííÿ îñíîâíèõ ñåêòîð³â åêîíîì³êè; àíàë³ç ð³âíÿ ðîçâèòêó ²ÊÒ â êîæíîìó ñåêòîð³; îö³íêà ñòðàòåã³÷íèõ ïð³îðèòåò³â ðîçâèòêó. – Âèçíà÷åííÿ ö³ëåé âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ: – ׳òêå ôîðìóëþâàííÿ ö³ëåé âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ íà íàö³îíàëüíîìó ð³âí³ (íàïðèêëàä, ï³äâèùåíÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development. Research methods. The article uses the dialectical method of scientific knowledge, the method of analysis and synthesis, the comparative method, and the method of data generalization. Results of the work. The article proposes a methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development. The structure of the model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation is presented, the main tasks and stages of the model are identified, the tools and methods are outlined, the key success factors of the model are identified, and the results of implementing the model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation are determined. Conclusions. The methodological model for assessing the risks of ICT implementation in the context of national economic development demonstrates a comprehensive approach to risk management when implementing ICT in the context of national economic development. It emphasizes the importance of identifying, assessing and prioritizing risks, as well as developing and implementing risk management strategies. Monitoring and control of risks is a key element for ensuring the successful implementation of ICT and achieving the expected positive results for the economy. Keywords: risks, strategies, monitoring, modeling, identification, information and communication technologies, quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis, prioritization, national economy.
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 7 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww íÿ ïðîäóêòèâíîñò³, ïîêðàùåííÿ êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³, çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ïðîçîðîñò³). – Âèçíà÷åííÿ îñíîâíèõ ïîêàçíèê³â åôåêòèâíîñò³ (KPI) äëÿ âèì³ðþâàííÿ äîñÿãíåííÿ ö³ëåé. – Âèçíà÷åííÿ çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í: – ²äåíòèô³êàö³ÿ âñ³õ çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í (óðÿä, á³çíåñ, ãðîìàäÿíè, íàóêîâ³ óñòàíîâè). – Âèçíà÷åííÿ ¿õí³õ ïîòðåá òà î÷³êóâàíü. ²äåíòèô³êàö³ÿ ðèçèê³â: – Ìåòîäè ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿ ðèçèê³â: – Àíàë³ç ë³òåðàòóðè òà äîñâ³äó ³íøèõ êðà¿í: âèâ÷åííÿ óñï³øíèõ òà íåâäàëèõ ïðèêëàä³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ. – Åêñïåðòí³ îö³íêè: çàëó÷åííÿ åêñïåðò³â ç ð³çíèõ ãàëóçåé äëÿ ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿ ðèçèê³â. – Ìîçêîâèé øòóðì: îðãàí³çàö³ÿ çóñòð³÷åé ç çàö³êàâëåíèìè ñòîðîíàìè äëÿ ãåíåðóâàííÿ ³äåé ùîäî ïîòåíö³éíèõ ðèçèê³â. – Àíàë³ç ñöåíàð³¿â: ðîçðîáêà ð³çíèõ ñöåíàð³¿â ðîçâèòêó ïîä³é äëÿ âèÿâëåííÿ ìîæëèâèõ ðèçèê³â. – Êàòåãî𳿠ðèçèê³â: – Òåõíîëîã³÷í³ ðèçèêè: çàñòàð³ë³ òåõíîëî㳿, ïðîáëåìè ñóì³ñíîñò³, ê³áåðáåçïåêà. – Åêîíîì³÷í³ ðèçèêè: âèñîêà âàðò³ñòü âïðîâàäæåííÿ, íèçüêà ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü, çì³íè íà ðèíêó. – Îðãàí³çàö³éí³ ðèçèêè: íåäîñòàòíÿ êâàë³ô³êàö³ÿ ïåðñîíàëó, îï³ð çì³íàì, ïðîáëåìè óïðàâë³ííÿ ïðîåêòàìè. – Ñîö³àëüí³ ðèçèêè: öèôðîâà íåð³âí³ñòü, âòðàòà ðîáî÷èõ ì³ñöü, ïîðóøåííÿ ïðèâàòíîñò³. – Ïîë³òè÷í³ ðèçèêè: çì³íè â çàêîíîäàâñòâ³, ïîë³òè÷íà íåñòàá³ëüí³ñòü. Àíàë³ç ðèçèê³â: – ßê³ñíèé àíàë³ç: – Îö³íêà éìîâ³ðíîñò³ òà âïëèâó êîæíîãî ðèçèêó (íàïðèêëàä, çà øêàëîþ «âèñîêèé, ñåðåäí³é, íèçüêèé»). – Âèçíà÷åííÿ ïðè÷èí âèíèêíåííÿ ðèçèê³â. – ʳëüê³ñíèé àíàë³ç (çà ìîæëèâîñò³): – Âèêîðèñòàííÿ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â äëÿ îö³íêè éìîâ³ðíîñò³ òà âïëèâó ðèçèê³â. – Ìîäåëþâàííÿ ñöåíàð³¿â äëÿ ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ íàñë³äê³â ðèçèê³â. – Ìàòðèöÿ ðèçèê³â: – ³çóàë³çàö³ÿ ðèçèê³â çà äîïîìîãîþ ìàòðèö³ éìîâ³ðíîñò³/âïëèâó. – Âèçíà÷åííÿ ïð³îðèòåòíèõ ðèçèê³â äëÿ óïðàâë³ííÿ. Ðîçðîáêà ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè: – Óíèêíåííÿ ðèçèêó: çì³íà ïëàí³â àáî ïðîåêò³â äëÿ ïîâíîãî óñóíåííÿ ðèçèêó. – Çìåíøåííÿ ðèçèêó: âïðîâàäæåííÿ çàõîä³â äëÿ çíèæåííÿ éìîâ³ðíîñò³ àáî âïëèâó ðèçèêó. – Ïåðåäà÷à ðèçèêó: ïåðåíåñåííÿ â³äïîâ³äàëüíîñò³ çà ðèçèê íà ³íøó ñòîðîíó (íàïðèêëàä, ÷åðåç ñòðàõóâàííÿ). – Ïðèéíÿòòÿ ðèçèêó: âèçíàííÿ ³ñíóâàííÿ ðèçèêó òà ãîòîâí³ñòü äî éîãî íàñë³äê³â. – Ðîçðîáêà ïëàí³â ðåàãóâàííÿ íà íàäçâè÷àéí³ ñèòóàö³¿: ï³äãîòîâêà äî ðåàãóâàííÿ íà ðèçèêè, ÿê³ âèíèêëè. Ìîí³òîðèíã òà êîíòðîëü: – Ðåãóëÿðíèé ìîí³òîðèíã ðèçèê³â: â³äñòåæåííÿ îñíîâíèõ ïîêàçíèê³â òà ñâîº÷àñíå âèÿâëåííÿ çì³í. – Ïåðåãëÿä òà îíîâëåííÿ ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè: àäàïòàö³ÿ ñòðàòåã³é äî çì³í ó çîâí³øíüîìó ñåðåäîâèù³. – Çâ³òí³ñòü ïðî ðèçèêè: íàäàííÿ ³íôîðìàö³¿ ïðî ðèçèêè çàö³êàâëåíèì ñòîðîíàì. – Îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè: âèçíà÷åííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ âïðîâàäæåííÿ ñòðàòå㳿 óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. III. ²íñòðóìåíòè òà ìåòîäè: – SWOT–àíàë³ç: äëÿ îö³íêè ñèëüíèõ òà ñëàáêèõ ñòîð³í, ìîæëèâîñòåé òà çàãðîç. – PESTEL–àíàë³ç: äëÿ àíàë³çó ïîë³òè÷íèõ, åêîíîì³÷íèõ, ñîö³àëüíèõ, òåõíîëîã³÷íèõ, åêîëîã³÷íèõ òà ïðàâîâèõ ôàêòîð³â. – Äåðåâî ð³øåíü: äëÿ îö³íêè ð³çíèõ âàð³àíò³â ä³é òà ¿õ íàñë³äê³â. – Ìåòîä Ìîíòå–Êàðëî: äëÿ ìîäåëþâàííÿ ñöåíàð³¿â òà îö³íêè éìîâ³ðíîñò³ ð³çíèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â. – ²íôîðìàö³éí³ ñèñòåìè óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè: äëÿ àâòîìàòèçàö³¿ ïðîöåñ³â óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. IV. Êëþ÷îâ³ ôàêòîðè óñï³õó: 1) ï³äòðèìêà ç áîêó êåð³âíèöòâà: çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ïîë³òè÷íî¿ ï³äòðèìêè òà íåîáõ³äíèõ ðåñóðñ³â; 2) çàëó÷åííÿ âñ³õ çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í: ãàðàíòóâàííÿ, ùî âñ³ çàö³êàâëåí³ ñòîðîíè ìàþòü ìîæëèâ³ñòü âèñëîâèòè ñâîþ äóìêó; 3) ïðîçîðà êîìóí³êàö³ÿ: çàáåçïå÷åííÿ â³äêðèòîãî îáì³íó ³íôîðìàö³ºþ ïðî ðèçèêè; 4) íàâ÷àííÿ òà ï³äâèùåííÿ êâàë³ô³êàö³¿: ï³äâèùåííÿ ð³âíÿ çíàíü òà íàâè÷îê ïåðñîíàëó ó ñôåð³ óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè; 5) ïîñò³éíå âäîñêîíàëåííÿ: ðåãóëÿðíèé ïåðåãëÿä òà îíîâëåííÿ ìîäåë³ óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. V. Ðåçóëüòàòè âïðîâàäæåííÿ ìîäåë³: 1) ï³äâèùåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ; 2) çìåíøåííÿ âòðàò, ïîâ’ÿçàíèõ ç ðèçèêàìè; 3) ï³äâèùåííÿ äîâ³ðè ç áîêó çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í;
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 8´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww 4) ïîêðàùåííÿ êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè; 5) ñòâîðåííÿ ñïðèÿòëèâîãî ñåðåäîâèùà äëÿ ³ííîâàö³é òà ðîçâèòêó ²ÊÒ. Äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íî¿ ìîäåë³ îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè, íåîáõ³äíî: 1. Óäîñêîíàëåííÿ ïðîöåñó ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿ ðèçèê³â: – Ðîçøèðåííÿ ñïåêòðó äæåðåë ³íôîðìàö³¿: çàëó÷åííÿ åêñïåðò³â ç ð³çíèõ ãàëóçåé (²Ò, åêîíîì³êà, ïðàâî, áåçïåêà), àíàë³ç ì³æíàðîäíîãî äîñâ³äó, ïðîâåäåííÿ îïèòóâàíü òà ôîêóñ–ãðóï ñåðåä çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í. – Âðàõóâàííÿ ñïåöèô³êè íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè: àäàïòàö³ÿ ³ñíóþ÷èõ êëàñèô³êàö³é ðèçèê³â äî îñîáëèâîñòåé óêðà¿íñüêîãî á³çíåñ–ñåðåäîâèùà, çàêîíîäàâñòâà, ð³âíÿ ðîçâèòêó ³íôðàñòðóêòóðè òà öèôðîâî¿ ãðàìîòíîñò³ íàñåëåííÿ. – Ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ìàéáóòí³õ òåíäåíö³é: âðàõóâàííÿ òåõíîëîã³÷íèõ òðåíä³â (áëîê÷åéí, õìàðí³ òåõíîëî㳿) òà ìîæëèâèõ çì³í ó ðåãóëÿòîðíîìó ïîë³. 2. ϳäâèùåííÿ òî÷íîñò³ îö³íêè éìîâ³ðíîñò³ òà íàñë³äê³â ðèçèê³â: – Âèêîðèñòàííÿ ê³ëüê³ñíèõ ìåòîä³â: çàñòîñóâàííÿ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó äëÿ á³ëüø îá’ºêòèâíî¿ îö³íêè éìîâ³ðíîñò³ òà ïîòåíö³éíèõ çáèòê³â. – Çàëó÷åííÿ åêñïåðòíèõ îö³íîê: ðîçðîáêà ÷³òêèõ êðèòåð³¿â òà øêàë äëÿ åêñïåðòíîãî îö³íþâàííÿ, ïðîâåäåííÿ íåçàëåæíî¿ åêñïåðòèçè ðåçóëüòàò³â. – Ïåð³îäè÷íèé ïåðåãëÿä òà àêòóàë³çàö³ÿ: ðåãóëÿðíèé ìîí³òîðèíã ôàêòè÷íèõ íàñë³äê³â ðåàë³çîâàíèõ ðèçèê³â, êîðèãóâàííÿ îö³íîê éìîâ³ðíîñò³ òà íàñë³äê³â íà îñíîâ³ îòðèìàíèõ äàíèõ. – Âðàõóâàííÿ âçàºìîçâ’ÿçê³â ì³æ ðèçèêàìè: àíàë³ç ìîæëèâèõ êàñêàäíèõ åôåêò³â òà êóìóëÿòèâíîãî âïëèâó äåê³ëüêîõ ðèçèê³â íà âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ. 3. Ðîçðîáêà åôåêòèâíèõ ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè: – Ðîçðîáêà àëüòåðíàòèâíèõ ïëàí³â: ï³äãîòîâêà ïëàí³â ä³é íà âèïàäîê ðåàë³çàö³¿ êðèòè÷íèõ ðèçèê³â, âèçíà÷åííÿ â³äïîâ³äàëüíèõ îñ³á òà ðåñóðñ³â. – Âïðîâàäæåííÿ ìåõàí³çì³â ìîí³òîðèíãó òà êîíòðîëþ: ðåãóëÿðíèé ìîí³òîðèíã îñíîâíèõ ³íäèêàòîð³â ðèçèêó, ïðîâåäåííÿ àóäèò³â òà ïåðåâ³ðîê äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ çàõîä³â ç óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. – Ñòðàõóâàííÿ ðèçèê³â: âèâ÷åííÿ ìîæëèâîñòåé ñòðàõóâàííÿ ðèçèê³â, ïîâ’ÿçàíèõ ç âïðîâàäæåííÿì ²ÊÒ (íàïðèêëàä, ê³áåð–ðèçèêè, ðèçèêè çáî¿â ó ðîáîò³ îáëàäíàííÿ). Öÿ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü º ãíó÷êîþ òà ìîæå áóòè àäàïòîâàíà äî ñïåöèô³÷íèõ óìîâ òà ïîòðåá êîæíî¿ êîíêðåòíî¿ ñèòóàö³¿. Âàæëèâî âðàõîâóâàòè êîíòåêñò ³ ö³ë³ âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ äëÿ çàáåçïå- ÷åííÿ åôåêòèâíîãî óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè òà äîñÿãíåííÿ ïîçèòèâíèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â äëÿ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Âèñíîâêè Ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà ìîäåëü îö³íêè ðèçèê³â âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè ´ðóíòóºòüñÿ íà êîìïëåêñíîìó ï³äõîä³ äî óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè ïðè âïðîâàäæåíí³ ²ÊÒ â óìîâàõ ðîçâèòêó íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Âîíà ï³äêðåñëþº âàæëèâ³ñòü ³äåíòèô³êàö³¿, îö³íêè òà ïð³îðèòèçàö³¿ ðèçèê³â, à òàêîæ ðîçðîáêè òà âïðîâàäæåííÿ ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè. Ìîí³òîðèíã òà êîíòðîëü ðèçèê³â º îñíîâíèì åëåìåíòîì äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ óñï³øíîãî âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ òà äîñÿãíåííÿ î÷³êóâàíèõ ïîçèòèâíèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â äëÿ åêîíîì³êè. Ìîäåëü ³íòåãðóº ê³ëüê³ñí³ òà ÿê³ñí³ ìåòîäè îö³íþâàííÿ, âðàõîâóº ñïåöèô³êó íàö³îíàëüíîãî åêîíîì³÷íîãî ñåðåäîâèùà òà äຠìîæëèâ³ñòü ³äåíòèô³êóâàòè, àíàë³çóâàòè òà îö³íþâàòè îñíîâí³ ðèçèêè, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç âïðîâàäæåííÿì ²ÊÒ. Çàïðîïîíîâàíà ìîäåëü ´ðóíòóºòüñÿ íà êîíöåïö³¿ æèòòºâîãî öèêëó ²ÊÒ–ïðîåêò³â òà âðàõîâóº ðèçèêè íà êîæíîìó åòàï³: â³ä ïëàíóâàííÿ äî âïðîâàäæåííÿ òà åêñïëóàòàö³¿. Ïðàêòè÷íà ö³íí³ñòü äîñë³äæåííÿ ïîëÿãຠó ìîæëèâîñò³ çàñòîñóâàííÿ çàïðîïîíîâàíî¿ ìîäåë³ äëÿ ïðèéíÿòòÿ îá´ðóíòîâàíèõ óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü ùîäî âïðîâàäæåííÿ ²ÊÒ â ð³çíèõ ñåêòîðàõ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Ìîäåëü ìîæå áóòè âèêîðèñòàíà ÿê ³íñòðóìåíò äëÿ ðîçðîáêè ñòðàòåã³é óïðàâë³ííÿ ðèçèêàìè, îïòèì³çàö³¿ ðåñóðñ³â òà ï³äâèùåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ²ÊÒ–ïðîåêò³â. Ñïèñîê âèêîðèñòàíèõ äæåðåë: 1. Áîðîä³íà Î. À., Ëÿøåíêî Â. ². Ïîâîºííå â³äíîâëåííÿ åêîíîì³êè: ñâ³òîâèé äîñâ³ä òà ñïðîáà éîãî àäàïòàö³¿ äëÿ Óêðà¿íè. ³ñíèê åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íàóêè Óêðà¿íè. 2022. ¹ 1. Ñ. 121–134. 2. Ãàâðèëêî Ï. Ï., Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., Âàæèíñüêèé Ô. À., ²íäóñ Ê. Ï. ̳æíàðîäí³ ô³íàíñè ³ ô³íàíñîâèé ìåíåäæìåíò â çàäà÷àõ òà ïðèêëàäàõ: íàâ÷àëüíèé ïîñ³áíèê. Ëüâ³â: Âèä–âî ÍÍÂÊ «ÀÒÁ», 2020. 161 ñ. 3. Ãàâðèëêî Ï. Ï., Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., Êàãàíåöü–Ãàâðèëêî Ë. Ï., Ãóøòàí Ò. Â., Êðàì÷åíêî Ð. À. Êîíêóðåíòí³ òåõíîëî㳿 â ì³æíàðîäí³é åêîíîì³ö³: ï³äðó÷íèê. Ëüâ³â: Âèä–âî ÍÍÂÊ «ÀÒÁ», 2023. 184 ñ.
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 9 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww 4. Ãàâðèëêî Ï. Ï., Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., Ëàçóð Ñ. Ï., Âàæèíñüêèé Ô. À. ̳æíàðîäíà åêîíîì³êà â òàáëèöÿõ, ñõåìàõ, ôîðìóëàõ, çàäà÷àõ ³ ïðèêëàäàõ: íàâ÷àëüíèé ïîñ³áíèê. Ëüâ³â: Âèä–âî ÍÍÂÊ «ÀÒÁ», 2019. 258 ñ. 5. Ãàâðèëêî Ï. Ï., Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., Ìîëíàð Î. Ñ., Âàñèëèõà Í. Â., Áóëåöà Í. Â., Ãåðçàíè÷ Â. Ì., Ìàðã³òè÷ Â. Â. ̳æíàðîäíèé ëîã³ñòè÷íèé ìåíåäæìåíò: ï³äðó÷- íèê. Ëüâ³â: Âèä–âî ÍÍÂÊ «ÀÒÁ», 2025. 176 c. 6. Ãàâðèëêî Ï. Ï., Ëàëàêóëè÷ Ì. Þ., Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â. Îñíîâí³ ôàêòîðè âèíèêíåííÿ êðèçîâèõ ÿâèù íà ïðîìèñëîâèõ ï³äïðèºìñòâàõ. Íàóêîâèé â³ñíèê ÍËÒÓ Óêðà¿- íè: çá. íàóê.–òåõí. ïðàöü. 2012. Âèï. 22 (4). Ñ. 158–164. 7. Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â. ²ííîâàö³éíèé ðîçâèòîê ïðîìèñëîâîñò³: çàâäàííÿ óïðàâë³ííÿ ïðè âðàõóâàíí³ óìîâ íåäîñêîíàëî¿ êîíêóðåíö³¿: ìîíîãðàô³ÿ. Ëüâ³â: ˳ãà–Ïðåñ, 2015. 324 ñ. 8. Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., Ãóøòàí Ò. Â., Ìîëíàð Î. Ñ., Âàñèëèõà Í. Â., ×îáàëü Ë. Þ. ̳æíàðîäí³ ïåðåâåçåííÿ â ì³æíàðîäí³é åêîíîì³ö³: ï³äðó÷íèê. Ëüâ³â: Âèä–âî ÍÍÂÊ «ÀÒÁ», 2021. 189 ñ. 9. Êîëîä³é÷óê À. Â., ϳñíèé Â. Ì., Ñåì÷óê Æ. Â. Ñóòí³ñòü ³ííîâàö³é, ñòðóêòóðà òà îñíîâí³ åòàïè ³ííîâàö³éíîãî ïðîöåñó. Íàóêîâèé â³ñíèê ÍËÒÓ Óêðà¿íè. 2009. Âèï. 19 (9). Ñ. 191–196. 10. Ïóõèð Ñ. Ò. Ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íèé ñòàí íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè ï³ä ÷àñ ïîâíîìàñøòàáíî¿ â³éíè. Åêîíîì³êà ³ ðåã³îí. 2023. ¹ 4 (91). Ñ. 8–16. References: 1. Borodina, O. A., & Lyashenko, V. I. (2022). Povoyenne vidnovlennya ekonomiky: svitovyy dosvid ta sproba yoho adaptatsiyi dlya Ukrayiny [Post–war economic recovery: world experience and an attempt at its adaptation for Ukraine]. Visnyk ekonomichnoyi nauky Ukrayiny – Bulletin of Economic Science of Ukraine, 1, 121–134. [in Ukrainian]. 2. Havrylko, P. P., Kolodiychuk, A. V., Vazhynskyy, F. A., & Indus, K. P. (2020). Mizhnarodni finansy i finansovyy menedzhment v zadachakh ta prykladakh [International finance and financial management in problems and examples]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing. [in Ukrainian]. 3. Havrylko, P. P., Kolodiychuk, A. V., Kahanets– Havrylko, L. P., Hushtan, T. V., & Kramchenko R. A. (2023). Konkurentni tekhnolohiyi v mizhnarodniy ekonomitsi [Competitive technologies in the international economy]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing. [in Ukrainian]. 4. Havrylko, P. P., Kolodiychuk, A. V., Lazur, S. P., & Vazhynskyy, F. A. (2019). Mizhnarodna ekonomika v tablytsyakh, skhemakh, formulakh, zadachakh i prykladakh [International Economics in Tables, Schemes, Formulas, Problems and Examples]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing. [in Ukrainian]. 5. Havrylko, P. P., Kolodiychuk, A. V., Molnar, O. S., Vasylykha, N. V., Buletsa, N. V., Herzanych, V. M., & Marhitych, V. V. (2025). Mizhnarodnyy lohistychnyy menedzhment [International Logistics Management]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing. [in Ukrainian]. 6. Havrylko, P. P., Lalakulych, M. Yu., & Kolodiychuk, A. V. (2012). Osnovni factory vynyknennya kryzovykh yavyshch na promyslovykh pidpryyemstvakh [The main factors of emergence of crisis phenomena in industrial enterprises]. In Naukovyy visnyk NLTU Ukrayiny [Scientific Bulletin of National Forestry University of Ukraine]: Vol. 22 (4) (pp. 158–164). [in Ukrainian]. 7. Kolodiychuk, A. V. (2015). Innovatsiynyy rozvytok promyslovosti: zavdannya upravlinnya pry vrakhuvanni umov nedoskonaloyi konkurentsiyi [Innovative development of industry: the tasks of management taking into account the conditions of imperfect competition]. Lviv: League Press. [in Ukrainian]. 8. Kolodiychuk, A. V., Hushtan, T. V., Molnar, O. S., Vasylykha, N. V., & Chobal, L. Yu. (2021). Mizhnarodni perevezennya v mizhnarodniy ekonomitsi [International transportation in the international economy]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing [in Ukrainian]. 9. Kolodiychuk, A. V., Pisnyy, V. M., & Semchuk, Zh. V. (2009). Sutnist’ innovatsiy, struktura ta osnovni etapy innovatsiynoho protsesu [The essence of innovation, the structure and the main stages of the innovation process]. In Naukovyy visnyk NLTU Ukrayiny [Scientific Bulletin of National Forestry University of Ukraine]: Vol. 19 (9) (pp. 191–196). [in Ukrainian]. 10. Pukhyr, S. T. (2023). Makroekonomichnyy stan natsional’noyi ekonomiky pid chas povnomasshtabnoyi viyny [Macroeconomic state of the national economy during a full–scale war]. Ekonomika i rehion – Economy and region, 4 (91), 8–16. [in Ukrainian]. Äàí³ ïðî àâòîðà Êîëîä³é÷óê Àíàòîë³é Âîëîäèìèðîâè÷, ê.å.í., äîöåíò, Óæãîðîäñüêèé òîðãîâåëüíî–åêîíîì³÷íèé ³íñòèòóò Äåðæàâíîãî òîðãîâåëüíî–åêîíîì³÷- íîãî óí³âåðñèòåòó ORSID: KWWSVRUFLGRUJ0000–0001–5727–0560 e–mail: [email protected] Data about author Anatoly Kolodiychuk, Ph.D. of Economics, Associate Professor, Uzhhorod Institute of Trade and Economics of the State University of Trade and Economics e–mail: [email protected]