Theoretical and methodological aspects of financial results statistics: issues and solutions
Abstract
Relevance of the Study. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity to improve the statistical analysis of enterprises’ financial results under conditions of economic instability, increasing competition, and business process digitalization. Net financial result serves as a key indicator of performance efficiency; however, the existing practice of its analysis is characterized by fragmentation and the absence of unified methodological approaches. Insufficient data quality and completeness, standardization issues, and the limited use of modern analytical tools reduce the reliability and predictive value of statistics. At the same time, the integration of digital technologies and harmonization with international standards create opportunities to enhance the objectivity and accuracy of financial performance assessment. This forms the basis for developing a modern system of statistical monitoring that will ensure more well–grounded managerial decisions and contribute to strengthening enterprises’ financial stability.Research Objective. The purpose of the study is to summarize and systematize the theoretical and methodological foundations of statistical analysis of enterprises’ financial results, to identify the main problems of its practical application under economic instability and digitalization, and to substantiate directions for methodological improvement considering international financial reporting standards and the needs of financial information users.Research Methods. The study applies methods of statistical observation, generalization, grouping, comparison, analogy, induction, and deduction.Research Results. Based on the generalization of scientific approaches of domestic and foreign scholars, the evolution of the methodology of statistical analysis is revealed, while its modern trends and problem areas are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the adaptation of classical statistical methods to the conditions of economic instability and digitalization, specifically through the use of software–analytical tools for the automation of financial data processing. It is established that a significant share of studies focuses on individual elements of analysis, whereas comprehensive works that integrate theoretical foundations of statistics, international financial reporting standards, and applied analytical tools remain insufficient. Approaches to the unification of financial–statistical analysis methodologies in the context of international practice are examined, and the factors limiting their effectiveness at the national level are identified.Conceptual directions for improving the statistics of financial results are proposed, including the harmonization of methodological procedures, expansion of the information base for analysis, enhancement of data representativeness, and implementation of digital technologies for analytical processing.Practical Implications. The results obtained can be used as a methodological foundation for further scientific research as well as in the practical activities of enterprises to improve the validity of managerial decisions aimed at enhancing financial efficiency and competitiveness.Conclusions. The article investigates the theoretical and methodological aspects of the statistics of enterprises’ financial results, identifies the main problems, and substantiates directions for their resolution. It emphasizes that statistical analysis of financial results is a key tool for assessing the efficiency of business activities and making well–grounded managerial decisions.
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ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 10 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww © ÑÎËÎÌ×ÓÊ Ë. Ì., ÌÈÕÀÉËÅÍÊÎ Î. Â., ÑÊÎÌÎÐÎÕÎÂÀ Ñ. Þ., 2025 ÓÄÊ 311.21:336.64 ÑÎËÎÌ×ÓÊ Ë. Ì. ÌÈÕÀÉËÅÍÊÎ Î. Â. ÑÊÎÌÎÐÎÕÎÂÀ Ñ. Þ. Òåîðåòèêî–ìåòîäè÷í³ àñïåêòè ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â: ïðîáëåìàòèêà òà øëÿõè ¿¿ âèð³øåííÿ Àêòóàëüí³ñòü òåìè äîñë³äæåííÿ. Àêòóàëüí³ñòü äîñë³äæåííÿ çóìîâëåíà íåîáõ³äí³ñòþ óäîñêîíàëåííÿ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ â óìîâàõ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³, çðîñòàííÿ êîíêóðåíö³¿ òà öèôðîâ³çàö³¿ á³çíåñ–ïðîöåñ³â. ×èñòèé ô³íàíñîâèé ðåçóëüòàò âèñòóïຠêëþ÷îâèì ïîêàçíèêîì åôåêòèâíîñò³ ä³ÿëüíîñò³, ïðîòå ³ñíóþ÷à ïðàêòèêà éîãî àíàë³çó õàðàêòåðèçóºòüñÿ ôðàãìåíòàðí³ñòþ òà â³äñóòí³ñòþ ºäèíèõ ìåòîäè÷íèõ ï³äõîä³â. Íåäîñòàòíÿ ÿê³ñòü ³ ïîâíîòà äàíèõ, ïðîáëåìè ñòàíäàðòèçàö³¿ òà îáìåæåíå çàñòîñóâàííÿ ñó÷àñíèõ àíàë³òè÷íèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â çíèæóþòü äîñòîâ³ðí³ñòü ³ ïðîãíîñòè÷íó ö³íí³ñòü ñòàòèñòèêè. Âîäíî- ÷àñ ³íòåãðàö³ÿ öèôðîâèõ òåõíîëîã³é òà ãàðìîí³çàö³ÿ ç ì³æíàðîäíèìè ñòàíäàðòàìè â³äêðèâàþòü ìîæëèâîñò³ äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ îá’ºêòèâíîñò³ òà òî÷íîñò³ îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâî¿ åôåêòèâíîñò³. Öå ñòâîðþº ïåðåäóìîâè äëÿ ôîðìóâàííÿ ñó÷àñíî¿ ñèñòåìè ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî ìîí³òîðèíãó, ùî çàáåçïå÷èòü á³ëüø îá´ðóíòîâàí³ óïðàâë³íñüê³ ð³øåííÿ òà ñïðèÿòèìå çì³öíåííþ ô³íàíñîâî¿ ñòàá³ëüíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ. Ìåòîþ äîñë³äæåííÿ º óçàãàëüíåííÿ òà ñèñòåìàòèçàö³ÿ òåîðåòèêî–ìåòîäè÷íèõ çàñàä ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ, âèÿâëåííÿ îñíîâíèõ ïðîáëåì éîãî ïðàêòè÷- íîãî çàñòîñóâàííÿ â óìîâàõ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³ òà öèôðîâ³çàö³¿, à òàêîæ îá´ðóíòóâàííÿ íàïðÿìê³â âäîñêîíàëåííÿ ìåòîäîëî㳿 ç óðàõóâàííÿì ì³æíàðîäíèõ ñòàíäàðò³â ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³ òà ïîòðåá êîðèñòóâà÷³â ô³íàíñîâî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿. Ìåòîäè äîñë³äæåííÿ. Ïðè äîñë³äæåíí³ âèêîðèñòàí³ ìåòîä ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî ñïîñòåðåæåííÿ, óçàãàëüíåííÿ, ãðóïóâàííÿ, ïîð³âíÿííÿ, ìåòîä àíàëî㳿, ìåòîä ³íäóêö³¿ ³ äåäóêö³¿. Ðåçóëüòàòè äîñë³äæåííÿ. Íà îñíîâ³ óçàãàëüíåííÿ íàóêîâèõ ï³äõîä³â â³ò÷èçíÿíèõ ³ çàðóá³æíèõ äîñë³äíèê³â ðîçêðèòî åâîëþö³þ ìåòîäîëî㳿 ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó, îêðåñëåíî ¿¿ ñó÷àñí³ òåíäåíö³¿ òà ïðîáëåìí³ àñïåêòè. Îñîáëèâó óâàãó ïðèä³ëåíî ïèòàííÿì àäàïòàö³¿ êëàñè÷íèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â äî óìîâ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³ òà öèôðîâ³çàö³¿, çîêðåìà øëÿõîì âèêîðèñòàííÿ ïðîãðàìíî–àíàë³òè÷íèõ çàñîá³â äëÿ àâòîìàòèçàö³¿ îáðîáêè ô³íàíñîâî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿. Âèÿâëåíî, ùî çíà÷íà ÷àñòèíà äîñë³äæåíü çîñåðåäæóºòüñÿ íà îêðåìèõ åëåìåíòàõ àíàë³çó, ïðîòå áðàêóº êîìïëåêñíèõ ðîá³ò, ÿê³ á ³íòåãðóâàëè òåîðåòè÷í³ îñíîâè ñòàòèñòèêè, ì³æíàðîäí³ ñòàíäàðòè ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³ òà ïðèêëàäí³ ³íñòðóìåíòè àíàë³çó. Ïðîàíàë³çîâàíî ï³äõîäè äî óí³ô³êàö³¿ ìåòîäèê ô³íàíñîâî–ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó â êîíòåêñò³ ì³æíàðîäíî¿ ïðàêòèêè, à òàêîæ âèçíà÷åíî ôàêòîðè, ùî îáìåæóþòü ¿õ åôåêòèâí³ñòü íà íàö³îíàëüíîìó ð³âí³. Çàïðîïîíîâàíî êîíöåïòóàëüí³ íàïðÿìè âäîñêîíàëåííÿ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ùî ïåðåäáà÷àþòü ãàðìîí³çàö³þ ìåòîäè÷íèõ ïðîöåäóð, ðîçøèðåííÿ ³íôîðìàö³éíî¿ áàçè àíàë³çó, ï³äâèùåííÿ ðåïðåçåíòàòèâíîñò³ äàíèõ ³ âïðîâàäæåííÿ öèôðîâèõ òåõíîëîã³é àíàë³òè÷íî¿ îáðîáêè. Ãàëóçü çàñòîñóâàííÿ ðåçóëüòàò³â. Îòðèìàí³ ðåçóëüòàòè ìîæóòü áóòè âèêîðèñòàí³ ÿê ìåòîäîëîã³÷íà îñíîâà äëÿ ïîäàëüøèõ íàóêîâèõ ðîçðîáîê, à òàêîæ ó ïðàêòè÷í³é ä³ÿëüíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ îá´ðóíòîâàíîñò³ óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü, îð³ºíòîâàíèõ íà çðîñòàííÿ ô³íàíñîâî¿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ òà êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³. Âèñíîâêè çà ñòàòòåþ. Ó ñòàòò³ äîñë³äæåíî òåîðåòèêî–ìåòîäè÷í³ àñïåêòè ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ, âèçíà÷åíî îñíîâí³ ïðîáëåìè òà îá´ðóíòîâàíî íàïðÿìè ¿õ âèð³øåííÿ. ϳäêðåñëåíî, ùî ñòàòèñòè÷íèé àíàë³ç ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â º êëþ÷îâèì ³íñòðóìåíòîì îö³íþâàííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ãîñïîäàðñüêî¿ ä³ÿëüíîñò³ òà ïðèéíÿòòÿ îá´ðóíòîâàíèõ óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü. Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: ñòàòèñòèêà ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ô³íàíñîâèé àíàë³ç, ìåòîäîëîã³ÿ, ì³æíàðîäí³ ñòàíäàðòè, öèôðîâ³çàö³ÿ, åôåêòèâí³ñòü ä³ÿëüíîñò³.
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 11 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww LIUDMYLA SOLOMCHUK OLHA MYKHAILENKO SVITLANA SKOMOROHOVA Theoretical and methodological aspects of financial results statistics: issues and solutions Relevance of the Study. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity to improve the statistical analysis of enterprises’ financial results under conditions of economic instability, increasing competition, and business process digitalization. Net financial result serves as a key indicator of performance efficiency; however, the existing practice of its analysis is characterized by fragmentation and the absence of unified methodological approaches. Insufficient data quality and completeness, standardization issues, and the limited use of modern analytical tools reduce the reliability and predictive value of statistics. At the same time, the integration of digital technologies and harmonization with international standards create opportunities to enhance the objectivity and accuracy of financial performance assessment. This forms the basis for developing a modern system of statistical monitoring that will ensure more well–grounded managerial decisions and contribute to strengthening enterprises’ financial stability. Research Objective. The purpose of the study is to summarize and systematize the theoretical and methodological foundations of statistical analysis of enterprises’ financial results, to identify the main problems of its practical application under economic instability and digitalization, and to substantiate directions for methodological improvement considering international financial reporting standards and the needs of financial information users. Research Methods. The study applies methods of statistical observation, generalization, grouping, comparison, analogy, induction, and deduction. Research Results. Based on the generalization of scientific approaches of domestic and foreign scholars, the evolution of the methodology of statistical analysis is revealed, while its modern trends and problem areas are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the adaptation of classical statistical methods to the conditions of economic instability and digitalization, specifically through the use of software–analytical tools for the automation of financial data processing. It is established that a significant share of studies focuses on individual elements of analysis, whereas comprehensive works that integrate theoretical foundations of statistics, international financial reporting standards, and applied analytical tools remain insufficient. Approaches to the unification of financial–statistical analysis methodologies in the context of international practice are examined, and the factors limiting their effectiveness at the national level are identified. Conceptual directions for improving the statistics of financial results are proposed, including the harmonization of methodological procedures, expansion of the information base for analysis, enhancement of data representativeness, and implementation of digital technologies for analytical processing. Practical Implications. The results obtained can be used as a methodological foundation for further scientific research as well as in the practical activities of enterprises to improve the validity of managerial decisions aimed at enhancing financial efficiency and competitiveness. Conclusions. The article investigates the theoretical and methodological aspects of the statistics of enterprises’ financial results, identifies the main problems, and substantiates directions for their resolution. It emphasizes that statistical analysis of financial results is a key tool for assessing the efficiency of business activities and making well–grounded managerial decisions. Keywords: statistics of financial results, financial analysis, methodology, international standards, digitalization, performance efficiency. Ïîñòàíîâêà ïðîáëåìè. Ó ñó÷àñíèõ óìîâàõ ôóíêö³îíóâàííÿ åêîíîì³êè Óêðà¿íè, ÿê³ õàðàêòåðèçóþòüñÿ âèñîêèì ð³âíåì íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³, çðîñòàííÿì êîíêóðåíö³¿, âïëèâîì çîâí³øíüîåêîíîì³÷íèõ ÷èííèê³â òà âíóòð³øí³ìè âèêëèêàìè, îñîáëèâîãî çíà÷åííÿ íàáóâຠïèòàííÿ åôåê-
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 12 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww òèâíîãî óïðàâë³ííÿ ô³íàíñîâèìè ðåçóëüòàòàìè ï³äïðèºìñòâ. ×èñòèé ô³íàíñîâèé ðåçóëüòàò, ÿê îñíîâíèé ³íäèêàòîð ðåçóëüòàòèâíîñò³ ãîñïîäàðñüêî¿ ä³ÿëüíîñò³, º íå ëèøå äæåðåëîì ñàìîô³íàíñóâàííÿ, à é îñíîâîþ äëÿ ³íâåñòèö³éíîãî çðîñòàííÿ, ³ííîâàö³éíîãî ðîçâèòêó òà çàáåçïå- ÷åííÿ ô³íàíñîâî¿ ñòàá³ëüíîñò³. Ïðîòå, ñòàòèñòè÷íèé àíàë³ç ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ó áàãàòüîõ ï³äïðèºìñòâàõ çä³éñíþºòüñÿ ôðàãìåíòàðíî, áåç íàëåæíîãî óðàõóâàííÿ âïëèâó ôàêòîð³â âíóòð³øíüîãî òà çîâí³øíüîãî ñåðåäîâèùà. Êð³ì òîãî, ³ñíóº ïðîáëåìà íåäîñòàòíüî¿ óçãîäæåíîñò³ ìåòîäèê îö³íþâàííÿ ðåçóëüòàò³â ä³ÿëüíîñò³, â³äñóòí³ñòü óí³ô³êîâàíèõ ï³äõîä³â äî ðîçðàõóíêó êëþ÷îâèõ ô³íàíñîâèõ ïîêàçíèê³â ó êîíòåêñò³ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî ñïîñòåðåæåííÿ. Ó çâ’ÿçêó ç öèì ïîñòຠíåîáõ³äí³ñòü ó ´ðóíòîâíîìó òåîðåòèêî–ìåòîäè÷íîìó îñìèñëåíí³ ï³äõîä³â äî ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ïîãëèáëåíí³ ôàêòîðíîãî àíàë³çó òà ðîçðîáö³ ðåêîìåíäàö³é ùîäî ï³äâèùåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâî¿ ä³ÿëüíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ. Àêòóàëüí³ñòü äîñë³äæåííÿ îáóìîâëåíà ïîòðåáîþ ó ñòâîðåíí³ åôåêòèâíî¿ ñèñòåìè ñòàòèñòè÷- íîãî ìîí³òîðèíãó, ÿêà äîçâîëèòü çàáåçïå÷èòè ïðîçîð³ñòü, îá’ºêòèâí³ñòü ³ äîñòîâ³ðí³ñòü ô³íàíñîâî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿ äëÿ âñ³õ çàö³êàâëåíèõ ñòîð³í. Àíàë³ç îñòàíí³õ äîñë³äæåíü ³ ïóáë³êàö³é. Ó ñó÷àñí³é íàóêîâ³é ë³òåðàòóð³ ïèòàííÿ ñòàòèñòè÷- íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ ðîçãëÿäàþòüñÿ ç ð³çíèõ àñïåêò³â, ùî ñâ³ä÷èòü ïðî àêòóàëüí³ñòü òà áàãàòîãðàíí³ñòü ö³º¿ òåìè. Ïèòàííÿì ùîäî ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â çàéìàþòüñÿ òàê³ íàóêîâö³, ÿê Ò.À. Âàñèëüºâà, ².À. Áëàíê, Ì.². ʳíäðàöüêà, Î.Â. Ëàïêî, À.Ì. Ïîääºðüîã³í, Ã.Â. Ñàâèöüêà, ª.Â. Ìíèõ, ².². ªô³ìåíêî òà ³íø³. Ó öåíòð³ íàóêîâî¿ äèñêóñ³¿ ïåðåáóâàþòü ïðîáëåìè âèì³ðþâàííÿ òà îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâî¿ åôåêòèâíîñò³, îïòèì³çàö³¿ ìåòîäîëî㳿 àíàë³çó, à òàêîæ ãàðìîí³çàö³¿ îáë³êîâèõ ïðîöåäóð ó ìåæàõ ì³æíàðîäíèõ ñòàíäàðò³â [1]. Äîñë³äæåííÿ óêðà¿íñüêèõ íàóêîâö³â, çîêðåìà ². Î. Áëàíêà, Ë. Ï. ʳíäðàöüêî¿, Ì. ². Áîíäàð òà Ò. À. Âàñèëüºâî¿, àêöåíòóþòü óâàãó íà íåîáõ³äíîñò³ ìåòîäè÷íîãî óäîñêîíàëåííÿ ô³íàíñîâîãî àíàë³çó ç óðàõóâàííÿì ìîæëèâîñòåé ñó÷àñíî¿ ñòàòèñòèêè [2; 3]. Ïðîïîíóºòüñÿ àäàïòàö³ÿ êëàñè÷- íèõ ìåòîä³â äî óìîâ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ òóðáóëåíòíîñò³ òà ³íòåãðàö³ÿ ïðîãðàìíèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ òî÷íîñò³ òà îïåðàòèâíîñò³ îáðîáêè ô³íàíñîâèõ äàíèõ [4]. Çàðóá³æíèé íàóêîâèé äîðîáîê, ïðåäñòàâëåíèé ðîáîòàìè Ð. Áðåàë³, Ñ. Ìàéºðñà, Ô. Ôàáîöö³, çîñåðåäæóºòüñÿ íà çàñòîñóâàíí³ åêîíîìåòðè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé, ìåòîä³â îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðèçèê³â òà ï³äõîä³â äî âèçíà÷åííÿ âàðòîñò³ á³çíåñó [5–7]. Âàæëèâèì º ¿õí³é àêöåíò íà êîìïëåêñíîìó ï³äõîä³, ùî ïåðåäáà÷ຠâðàõóâàííÿ íå ëèøå áóõãàëòåðñüêèõ ïîêàçíèê³â, à é ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íèõ, ãàëóçåâèõ òà ³íñòèòóö³éíèõ ÷èííèê³â. Îêðåìèé ñåãìåíò äîñë³äæåíü ïðèñâÿ÷åíî ñòàíäàðòèçàö³¿ îáë³êîâèõ ³ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ïðîöåäóð. Òàê, ó ïðàöÿõ Ì. Ðåì³í´òîíà òà Ï. Âîëêåðà ðîçãëÿäàºòüñÿ âïëèâ ãàðìîí³çàö³¿ ñòàíäàðò³â ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³, çîêðåìà ÌÑÔÇ, íà äîñòîâ³ðí³ñòü ³ ïîð³âíþâàí³ñòü ô³íàíñîâèõ äàíèõ [8; 9]. Àâòîðè ï³äêðåñëþþòü ïîçèòèâíèé åôåêò óí³ô³êàö³¿ ï³äõîä³â äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ ÿêîñò³ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó, âîäíî÷àñ àêöåíòóþ÷è íà íåîáõ³äíîñò³ ãíó÷- êî¿ àäàïòàö³¿ ì³æíàðîäíèõ âèìîã äî íàö³îíàëüíèõ óìîâ ãîñïîäàðþâàííÿ. Îãëÿä íàóêîâèõ äæåðåë âèÿâèâ äåô³öèò êîìïëåêñíèõ äîñë³äæåíü, ÿê³ á ïîºäíóâàëè òåîðåòèêî– ìåòîäîëîã³÷í³ îñíîâè ñòàòèñòèêè, ñòàíäàðòè ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³ òà ïðèêëàäí³ ³íñòðóìåíòè àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â â óìîâàõ öèôðîâ³çàö³¿ åêîíîì³êè [10]. Íåäîñòàòíüî ðîçðîáëåíèìè çàëèøàþòüñÿ ïèòàííÿ ìåòîäè÷íî¿ óí³ô³êàö³¿ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ïðîöåäóð, àäàïòàö³¿ àíàë³òè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé äî êðèçîâèõ òà íåñòàíäàðòíèõ óìîâ (çîêðåìà ó ïåð³îäè âîºííèõ êîíôë³êò³â), à òàêîæ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ðåïðåçåíòàòèâíîñò³ òà ïîâíîòè âèõ³äíèõ äàíèõ [11]. Òàêèì ÷èíîì, ñó÷àñíèé åòàï ðîçâèòêó åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íàóêè îáóìîâëþº ïîòðåáó ó ôîðìóâàíí³ ö³ë³ñíî¿ êîíöåïö³¿ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ùî ïîºäíóâàòèìå ³íñòðóìåíòàð³é ìàòåìàòè÷íî¿ ñòàòèñòèêè, âèìîãè ì³æíàðîäíèõ ñòàíäàðò³â òà öèôðîâ³ òåõíîëî㳿 îáðîáêè äàíèõ. Ïîäàëüø³ äîñë³äæåííÿ ó öüîìó íàïðÿì³ ìàþòü áóòè ñïðÿìîâàí³ íà ³íòåãðàö³þ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íèõ, ïðîãðàìíî–àíàë³òè÷íèõ òà ïðàêòè÷íèõ ð³øåíü ç óðàõóâàííÿì âèêëèê³â ãëîáàë³çîâàíî¿ åêîíîì³êè òà çàïèò³â êîðèñòóâà÷³â ô³íàíñîâî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿. Íå çâàæàþ÷è íà ïðîâåäåí³ äîñë³äæåííÿ â ïèòàíí³ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â º íåäîñòàòíÿ òî÷í³ñòü ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé, ïðîáëåìè ç ÿê³ñòþ òà ïîâíîòîþ äàíèõ, ïðîáëåìàòèêà ñòàíäàðòèçàö³¿ òà ìåòîäîëîã³÷íîãî çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, íåâèçíà-
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 13 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww ÷åí³ñòü â îö³íö³ ðèçèê³â, ùî ïîòðåáóº äîäàòêîâèõ äîñë³äæåíü. Ìåòîþ ñòàòò³ º âèÿâëåííÿ òà ñèñòåìàòèçàö³ÿ òåîðåòèêî–ìåòîäè÷íèõ ïðîáëåì, ïîâ’ÿçàíèõ ç³ ñòàòèñòè÷íèì àíàë³çîì ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ, à òàêîæ ðîçðîáêà ï³äõîä³â äî âäîñêîíàëåííÿ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íîãî çàáåçïå÷åííÿ çáîðó, îáðîáêè òà ³íòåðïðåòàö³¿ ô³íàíñîâèõ äàíèõ ó ñó÷àñíèõ óìîâàõ ãîñïîäàðþâàííÿ. Ó ìåæàõ ïîñòàâëåíî¿ ìåòè ïåðåäáà÷åíî ðåàë³çàö³þ òàêèõ çàâäàíü: âèçíà÷èòè êëþ÷îâ³ ïðîáëåìè, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç íåîäíîð³äí³ñòþ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ñòàíäàðò³â òà ï³äõîä³â äî îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â; ïðîàíàë³çóâàòè ñó÷àñí³ òåíäåíö³¿ â çàñòîñóâàíí³ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â äëÿ àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ïîêàçíèê³â ï³äïðèºìñòâ; âèÿâèòè ïðîãàëèíè ó ìåòîäîëîã³÷íîìó çàáåçïå÷åíí³, ùî îáìåæóþòü òî÷í³ñòü ³ íàä³éí³ñòü ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ âèñíîâê³â; îá´ðóíòóâàòè íàïðÿìè ìîäåðí³çàö³¿ ï³äõîä³â äî ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ç óðàõóâàííÿì öèôðîâ³çàö³¿ åêîíîì³êè, ïîòðåá á³çíåñó òà âèìîã êîðèñòóâà÷³â ô³íàíñîâî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿. Ðåàë³çàö³ÿ ìåòè äîñë³äæåííÿ äîçâîëèòü ñôîðìóâàòè êîíöåïòóàëüíó îñíîâó äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ ÿêîñò³ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî ìîí³òîðèíãó ô³íàíñîâî¿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ òà ñòâîðèòü ïåðåäóìîâè äëÿ á³ëüø îá´ðóíòîâàíèõ óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü íà ì³êðî– òà ìàêðîð³âíÿõ. Âèêëàä îñíîâíîãî ìàòåð³àëó äîñë³äæåííÿ. Íàóêîâö³, çîêðåìà Â. Ãåºöü, Ë. ʳíäçåðñüêèé, Þ. Áàæàë, àêöåíòóþòü óâàãó íà íåîáõ³äíîñò³ âäîñêîíàëåííÿ ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî ³íñòðóìåíòàð³þ â óìîâàõ öèôðîâî¿ òðàíñôîðìàö³¿ åêîíîì³êè [12, 13]. Ìåòîäèêà ñòàòèñòè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ïåðåäáà÷ຠêîìïëåêñ ä³é, ñïðÿìîâàíèõ íà âèâ÷åííÿ ñòðóêòóðè, äèíàì³êè, ôàêòîð³â ôîðìóâàííÿ ïðèáóòêó òà ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ. Ñåðåä îñíîâíèõ åòàï³â ìåòîäè÷íîãî àíàë³çó ìîæíà âèä³ëèòè: çá³ð ïåðâèííèõ äàíèõ – âèêîðèñòàííÿ áóõãàëòåðñüêî¿ òà ñòàòèñòè÷íî¿ çâ³òíîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ; ãðóïóâàííÿ òà êëàñèô³êàö³ÿ ïîêàçíèê³â – çà ãàëóçÿìè, ðåã³îíàìè, ôîðìàìè âëàñíîñò³, ïåð³îäàìè; àíàë³ç ñòðóêòóðè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â – âèâ÷åííÿ ïèòîìî¿ âàãè ð³çíèõ âèä³â äîõîä³â ³ âèòðàò; ðîçðàõóíîê ïîêàçíèê³â ïðèáóòêîâîñò³ òà ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³ – àáñîëþòíèõ (ïðèáóòîê, çáèòîê) òà â³äíîñíèõ (ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü àêòèâ³â, ïðîäóêö³¿, êàï³òàëó); äèíàì³÷íèé àíàë³ç – îá÷èñëåííÿ òåìï³â çðîñòàííÿ òà ïðèðîñòó çà ïåð³îäàìè; ôàêòîðíèé àíàë³ç – âèçíà÷åííÿ âïëèâó îêðåìèõ ôàêòîð³â íà ô³íàíñîâ³ ðåçóëüòàòè; ìîäåëþâàííÿ òà ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ – çàñòîñóâàííÿ åêîíîìåòðè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé. Äî îñíîâíèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â íàëåæàòü: ìåòîä â³äíîñíèõ âåëè÷èí (êîåô³ö³ºíò³â); ³íäåêñíèé ìåòîä; ìåòîä ñåðåäí³õ âåëè÷èí; êîðåëÿö³éíî–ðåãðåñ³éíèé àíàë³ç; ìåòîä ëàíöþãîâèõ ï³äñòàíîâîê äëÿ ôàêòîðíîãî àíàë³çó. Ñó÷àñí³ äîñë³äæåííÿ (íàïðèêëàä, ². Áëàíê, À. Ïîääºðüîã³í) ï³äêðåñëþþòü çíà÷åííÿ ³íòåãðàëüíèõ ïîêàçíèê³â ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³ òà àâòîìàòèçàö³¿ ïðîöåñ³â çáîðó ñòàòèñòè÷íî¿ ³íôîðìàö³¿ [2, 9]. Çà Áëîíñüêîþ ².Þ., çàñòîñóâàííÿ ³íòåãðàëüíèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ïîêàçíèê³â äîçâîëÿº ï³äâèùèòè îá’ºêòèâí³ñòü îö³íêè ïðèáóòêîâîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ [14]. Ùîá âèä³ëèòè íåâèð³øåí³ ÷àñòèíè çàãàëüíî¿ ïðîáëåìè ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ïîòð³áíî çâåðíóòè óâàãó íà ê³ëüêà îñíîâíèõ àñïåêò³â, ÿê³ ìîæóòü áóòè ùå íå ïîâí³ñòþ âèð³øåí³ àáî ïîòðåáóþòü óäîñêîíàëåííÿ: Íåäîñòàòíÿ òî÷í³ñòü ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé. Öå ìîæå áóòè ðåçóëüòàòîì âèêîðèñòàííÿ ñòàðèõ àáî íåàäàïòîâàíèõ ìîäåëåé, ùî íå âðàõîâóþòü ñó÷àñí³ åêîíîì³÷í³ óìîâè, çì³íè íà ô³íàíñîâèõ ðèíêàõ ÷è íîâ³ ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷í³ òðåíäè. Ïðîáëåìè, ÿê–îò ïðîïóùåí³ çíà÷åííÿ, íåñóì³ñí³ ôîðìàòè ÷è íåíàä³éí³ äæåðåëà, ìîæóòü ñèëüíî âïëèíóòè íà òî÷í³ñòü ìîäåë³. Âèá³ð íåêîðåêòíèõ çì³ííèõ äëÿ ìîäåë³ ìîæå ïðèçâåñòè äî íåäîñòàòíüîãî â³äîáðàæåííÿ êëþ÷îâèõ ÷èííèê³â, ùî âïëèâàþòü íà ô³íàíñîâ³ ðåçóëüòàòè. Âèá³ð ìîäåë³ ìîæå òàêîæ âïëèâàòè íà òî÷í³ñòü ïðîãíîç³â: ïðîñòîòà ìîäåëåé ìîæå ïðèçâîäèòè äî òîãî, ùî âàæëèâ³ ôàêòîðè áóäóòü ïðî³ãíîðîâàí³. Íàïðèêëàä, âèêîðèñòàííÿ ë³í³éíî¿ ðåãðåñ³¿ äëÿ ñêëàäíèõ ô³íàíñîâèõ ñèñòåì ìîæå íå â³äîáðàæàòè ðåàëüíèõ âçàºìîçâ’ÿçê³â ì³æ çì³ííèìè. Íàäì³ðíî ñêëàäí³ ìîäåë³ ìîæóòü ñòàòè ïåðåíàâ- ÷åíèìè (overfitting), êîëè ìîäåëü ï³äëàøòîâóºòüñÿ ï³ä êîíêðåòíèé íàá³ð äàíèõ, àëå âòðà÷ຠçäàòí³ñòü äî óçàãàëüíåííÿ äëÿ íîâèõ äàíèõ. Ô³íàíñîâ³ ðåçóëüòàòè ï³äïðèºìñòâ ÷àñòî çàëåæàòü â³ä áàãàòüîõ íåïåðåäáà÷óâàíèõ çîâí³øí³õ ôàêòîð³â, òàêèõ ÿê åêîíîì³÷í³ êðèçè, ïîë³òè÷í³ çì³íè, ïðèðîäí³ êàòàñòðîôè, çì³íè â çàêîíîäàâñòâ³, êîëèâàííÿ âàëþòíèõ êóðñ³â òîùî. Ðèíêîâà âîëàòèëüí³ñòü ³ íåïåðåäáà÷óâàí³ñòü ÷àñòî íå ìîæóòü áóòè òî÷íî ìîäåëþâàí³ çà äîïîìîãîþ òðàäèö³éíèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â, ùî çíèæóº òî÷í³ñòü ïðîãíîç³â. Ñòàòèñòè÷í³ ìîäåë³, ÿê³ íå
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 14 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww âðàõîâóþòü çîâí³øí³õ øîê³â (íàïðèêëàä, ïàíäå쳿 ÷è ãëîáàëüí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ êðèçè), ìîæóòü çíà÷íî íåäîîö³íèòè ðèçèêè àáî íàäì³ðíî îïòèì³ñòè÷íî îö³íèòè ìàéáóòí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ðåçóëüòàòè. Òàêîæ çíà÷íó ðîëü â³ä³ãðຠñòàòèñòè÷í³ ïîíÿòòÿ ë³í³éíîñò³ ³ íåë³í³éíîñò³. Áàãàòî ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé, òàêèõ ÿê ë³í³éíà ðåãðåñ³ÿ, ìàþòü ïðèïóùåííÿ ïðî ë³í³éí³ñòü çâ’ÿçêó ì³æ çì³ííèìè. Îäíàê ó ô³íàíñîâèõ ñèñòåìàõ âçàºìîçâ’ÿçêè ìîæóòü áóòè íåë³í³éíèìè, ùî óñêëàäíþº ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ çà äîïîìîãîþ ë³í³éíèõ ìîäåëåé. Íàñòóïíèì âàæëèâèì ìîìåíòîì º íåâèçíà÷åí³ñòü ó âèì³ðþâàíí³ ô³íàíñîâèõ ïîêàçíèê³â. Ñòàòèñòè÷í³ ìîäåë³ ÷àñòî âèêîðèñòîâóþòü ð³çíîìàí³òí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ïîêàçíèêè äëÿ îö³íêè ðåçóëüòàò³â, òàê³ ÿê ÷èñòèé ïðèáóòîê, ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü, ãðîøîâ³ ïîòîêè òîùî. Îäíàê ö³ ïîêàçíèêè ìîæóòü áóòè ïî–ð³çíîìó òðàêòîâàí³ àáî çàëåæàòè â³ä ñóá’ºêòèâíèõ ð³øåíü, ùî óñêëàäíþº ¿õ âèêîðèñòàííÿ â ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëÿõ. Äî ìîæëèâèõ øëÿõ³â âèð³øåííÿ äàíî¿ ïðîáëåìè ìîæíà â³äíåñòè: óäîñêîíàëåííÿ ìîäåëåé – ââåäåííÿ á³ëüø ñêëàäíèõ ìîäåëåé, òàêèõ ÿê ìàøèííå íàâ÷àííÿ, íåéðîíí³ ìåðåæ³ ÷è ìîäåë³ íà îñíîâ³ ãëèáîêîãî íàâ÷àííÿ, ìîæå äîïîìîãòè â ïðîãíîçóâàíí³ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ç á³ëüøèì ð³âíåì òî÷- íîñò³; àäàïòàö³ÿ äî çîâí³øí³õ çì³í – âèêîðèñòàííÿ àäàïòèâíèõ ìîäåëåé, ùî ìîæóòü êîðèãóâàòèñÿ â ðåàëüíîìó ÷àñ³ â³äïîâ³äíî äî çì³í íà ðèíêó àáî â åêîíîì³ö³, äîïîìîæå ï³äâèùèòè òî÷í³ñòü ïðîãíîç³â; ³íòåãðàö³ÿ íîâèõ äæåðåë äàíèõ – âêëþ÷åííÿ á³ëüø øèðîêîãî ñïåêòðà äàíèõ, òàêèõ ÿê ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷- í³ ³íäèêàòîðè, íàñòðî¿ ðèíêó, ñîö³àëüíî–åêîíîì³÷í³ ôàêòîðè, ìîæå ïîë³ïøèòè ÿê³ñòü ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé; îö³íêà ðèçèê³â òà íåâèçíà÷åíîñò³ – çàñòîñóâàííÿ ìåòîä³â, ÿê³ âðàõîâóþòü íåâèçíà÷åí³ñòü ³ ðèçèêè (íàïðèêëàä, ìåòîäè Ìîíòå–Êàðëî àáî ìåòîäè ñòîõàñòè÷íèõ ïðîöåñ³â), äîçâîëèòü çðîáèòè ìîäåë³ á³ëüø ðåàë³ñòè÷íèìè. Ïðîáëåìè ç ÿê³ñòþ òà ïîâíîòîþ äàíèõ. Îäí³ºþ ç íàéïîøèðåí³øèõ ïðîáëåì º ïðîïóùåí³ çíà÷åííÿ àáî íåïîâí³ äàí³, îñîáëèâî êîëè ïåâí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ïîêàçíèêè íå çàô³êñîâàí³ â çâ³òíîñò³ àáî íå çáèðàþòüñÿ íàëåæíèì ÷èíîì. Öå ìîæå ñòàòè ïðîáëåìîþ ïðè âèêîðèñòàíí³ ìåòîä³â, ÿê³ âèìàãàþòü ïîâíîãî íàáîðó äàíèõ äëÿ îö³íêè (íàïðèêëàä, ë³í³éíà ðåãðåñ³ÿ). Ïîìèëêè, ùî âèíèêàþòü ÷åðåç íåêîðåêòíå ââåäåííÿ äàíèõ àáî òåõí³÷í³ ïðîáëåìè â ïðîöåñ³ çáîðó ³íôîðìàö³¿, ìîæóòü çíà÷íî ñïîòâîðèòè ðåçóëüòàòè àíàë³çó. Íåäîñêîíàë³ñòü ó ñèñòåì³ îáë³êó, òàêà ÿê â³äñóòí³ñòü ñòàíäàðòèçàö³¿ – êîìïàí³¿ ìîæóòü âèêîðèñòîâóâàòè ð³çí³ ìåòîäè äëÿ âåäåííÿ áóõãàëòå𳿠òà ñêëàäàííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ çâ³ò³â, ùî ïðèçâîäèòü äî íåâ³äïîâ³äíîñò³ â ç³áðàíèõ äàíèõ. Íàïðèêëàä, êîìïàí³¿ ìîæóòü âèêîðèñòîâóâàòè ð³çí³ ñòàíäàðòè îáë³êó (íàïðèêëàä, ÌÑÔÇ vs GAAP), ùî óñêëàäíþº ïîð³âíÿííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ì³æ ð³çíèìè îðãàí³çàö³ÿìè. Âèêîðèñòàííÿ çàñòàð³ëèõ äàíèõ äëÿ àíàë³çó ïîòî÷íîãî ñòàíó ìîæå áóòè øê³äëèâèì äëÿ òî÷íîñò³ ïðîãíîç³â, îñê³ëüêè åêîíîì³÷í³ óìîâè àáî á³çíåñ–ïðàêòèêè ìîæóòü çì³íþâàòèñÿ äóæå øâèäêî. Íåàäåêâàòí³ñòü îáñÿãó äàíèõ òàêîæ º îäí³ºþ ç ïðîáëåì ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, òàê äëÿ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé, ùî âèêîðèñòîâóþòü âåëèê³ îáñÿãè äàíèõ, ìàëèé îáñÿã âèá³ðêè ìîæå ïðèçâåñòè äî òîãî, ùî ìîäåëü íå áóäå ìàòè äîñòàòíüî¿ ê³ëüêîñò³ ³íôîðìàö³¿ äëÿ êîðåêòíîãî ïðîãíîçó. Äàí³, ÿê³ çáèðàþòüñÿ ëèøå äëÿ îäíîãî ñåãìåíòà ðèíêó ÷è êîìïàí³¿, ìîæóòü íå áóòè ðåïðåçåíòàòèâíèìè äëÿ âñ³º¿ ãàëóç³ àáî ðèíêó â ö³ëîìó. Òàêèì ÷èíîì íèçüêà ÿê³ñòü òà íåïîâíîòà äàíèõ ìîæóòü ïðèçâåñòè äî íåïðàâèëüíèõ âèñíîâê³â ó ô³íàíñîâèõ çâ³òàõ àáî ïðîãíîçàõ, ùî ìîæå ñïðè- ÷èíèòè íååôåêòèâíå óïðàâë³íñüêå ð³øåííÿ, à òàêîæ äî ðèçèê³â äëÿ ³íâåñòîð³â òà êðåäèòîð³â, òàê ÿê íåÿê³ñí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ äàí³ ìîæóòü ïðèçâåñòè äî ô³íàíñîâèõ âòðàò äëÿ ³íâåñòîð³â àáî êðåäèòîð³â, îñê³ëüêè íà ¿õ îñíîâ³ ìîæóòü áóòè ïðèéíÿò³ íåïðàâèëüí³ ð³øåííÿ. Îñíîâíèìè øëÿõàìè âèð³øåííÿ äàíî¿ ïðîáëåìè º ïîêðàùåííÿ çáîðó òà îáðîáêè äàíèõ, âèêîðèñòàííÿ âåëèêèõ äàíèõ (çàëó÷åííÿ íîâ³òí³õ òåõíîëîã³é äëÿ çáîðó òà îáðîáêè âåëèêèõ îáñÿã³â äàíèõ ìîæå äîïîìîãòè çàïîâíèòè ïðîãàëèíè â äàíèõ òà çàáåçïå÷èòè á³ëüøó òî÷í³ñòü), ³íòåãðàö³ÿ çîâí³øí³õ äàíèõ (âèêîðèñòàííÿ äîäàòêîâèõ äæåðåë äàíèõ, íàïðèêëàä, ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íèõ ³íäèêàòîð³â, äàíèõ ç â³äêðèòèõ äæåðåë àáî â³äãóê³â ñïîæèâà÷³â, ùîá äîïîâíèòè îñíîâí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ïîêàçíèêè). Ïðîáëåìàòèêà ñòàíäàðòèçàö³¿ òà ìåòîäîëîã³÷íîãî çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â. Îö³íþâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â º âàæëèâîþ ñêëàäîâîþ åêîíîì³÷íîãî àíàë³çó, ïðîòå â³ò÷èçíÿíà òà ì³æíàðîäíà ñòàòèñòè÷- íà ïðàêòèêà ñòèêàºòüñÿ ç íèçêîþ ìåòîäîëîã³÷íèõ ³ ñòàíäàðòèçàö³éíèõ ïðîáëåì, ùî óñêëàäíþþòü îá’ºêòèâíó ³íòåðïðåòàö³þ îòðèìàíèõ äàíèõ ³ çíèæóþòü åôåêòèâí³ñòü óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü. Îäí³-
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 15 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww ºþ ç êëþ÷îâèõ ïðîáëåì º íåâ³äïîâ³äí³ñòü ³ ð³çíîð³äí³ñòü ñòàíäàðò³â îáë³êó òà çâ³òíîñò³. Êîìïàí³¿, çàëåæíî â³ä þðèñäèêö³¿ òà ñôåðè ä³ÿëüíîñò³, âèêîðèñòîâóþòü ð³çí³ íîðìàòèâí³ ï³äõîäè — çîêðåìà, ÍÖÁÎ àáî ÌÑÔÇ. Öå óíåìîæëèâëþº áåçïîñåðåäíº ïîð³âíÿííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ì³æ ï³äïðèºìñòâàìè, íàâ³òü ó ìåæàõ îäí³º¿ ãàëóç³. Îêð³ì òîãî, ñïîñòåð³ãàºòüñÿ ðîçá³æí³ñòü ó òðàêòóâàíí³ êëþ÷îâèõ ô³íàíñîâèõ ïîêàçíèê³â, òàêèõ ÿê ïðèáóòîê, äîõ³ä, ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü, ùî çóìîâëþº íåîäíîçíà÷í³ñòü ó ¿õ ñòàòèñòè÷íîìó àíàë³ç³. Ùå îäíèì ïðîáëåìíèì àñïåêòîì º â³äñóòí³ñòü óí³ô³êîâàíî¿ ìåòîäîëî㳿 çáîðó, îáðîáêè òà àíàë³çó ô³íàíñîâèõ äàíèõ. ²ñíóº çíà÷íà âàð³àòèâí³ñòü ó âèáîð³ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ï³äõîä³â — â³ä êëàñè÷íèõ ³íäåêñíèõ ìåòîä³â äî ñó÷àñíèõ åêîíîìåòðè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé, ùî ïðèçâîäèòü äî ðîçá³æíîñòåé ó ðåçóëüòàòàõ ³ óñêëàäíþº ïîð³âíÿííÿ äîñë³äæåíü. Îñîáëèâî¿ óâàãè çàñëóãîâóº ïðîáëåìà â³äñòàâàííÿ ìåòîäè÷íèõ ï³äõîä³â â³ä ðåàë³é ñó÷àñíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Ñòàíäàðòè òà ìåòîäèêè, ùî ðîçðîáëÿëèñÿ â óìîâàõ òðàäèö³éíî¿ ³íäóñòð³àëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè, íå âðàõîâóþòü ñïåöèô³êó öèôðîâèõ á³çíåñ–ìîäåëåé, ãíó÷êèõ ñòðóêòóð óïðàâë³ííÿ, à òàêîæ ðîë³ íåìàòåð³àëüíèõ àêòèâ³â. Öå çíèæóº çäàòí³ñòü ñòàòèñòè÷- íèõ ñèñòåì àäåêâàòíî ô³êñóâàòè é àíàë³çóâàòè ðåçóëüòàòè ä³ÿëüíîñò³ ³ííîâàö³éíèõ ï³äïðèºìñòâ. Êð³ì òîãî, ó ïðàêòèö³ îô³ö³éíî¿ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³êñóþòüñÿ âèïàäêè íåóçãîäæåíîñò³ ïåð³îä³â ñïîñòåðåæåííÿ, äóáëþâàííÿ ïîêàçíèê³â, â³äñóòíîñò³ äåòàë³çàö³¿ çà ñåêòîðàìè àáî òèïàìè ï³äïðèºìñòâ, ùî ñóòòºâî óñêëàäíþº ïîáóäîâó ºäèíî¿ ³íôîðìàö³éíî¿ ñèñòåìè äëÿ ô³íàíñîâîãî àíàë³çó. Òàêèì ÷èíîì, íàÿâí³ ïðîáëåìè ìåòîäîëîã³÷íîãî òà ñòàíäàðòèçàö³éíîãî õàðàêòåðó îáìåæóþòü åôåêòèâí³ñòü ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ÿê ³íñòðóìåíòó àíàë³çó òà óïðàâë³ííÿ. ¯õ ïîäîëàííÿ âèìàãຠì³æäèñöèïë³íàðíîãî ï³äõîäó, ìîäåðí³çàö³¿ íàö³îíàëüíèõ ñèñòåì îáë³êó, à òàêîæ ³íòåãðàö³¿ ñó÷àñíèõ àíàë³òè÷íèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â ³ç çàáåçïå÷åííÿì ïðîçîðîñò³ òà óí³ô³êàö³¿ ìåòîäèê. Íåâèçíà÷åí³ñòü ó îö³íö³ ðèçèê³â: Ñòàòèñòèêà ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â ÷àñòî íåäîñòàòíüî âðàõîâóº ñêëàäí³ñòü ³ íåâèçíà÷åí³ñòü, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç ô³íàíñîâèìè ðèçèêàìè, òàêèìè ÿê âàëþòí³ êîëèâàííÿ, ðèçèêè äåôîëòó àáî ðèíêîâ³ øîêè, ùî ìîæå çíà÷íî âïëèíóòè íà ê³íöåâ³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ïîêàçíèêè. Òåõí³÷í³ ïðîáëåìè îáðîáêè âåëèêèõ äàíèõ: Îáðîáêà âåëèêèõ îáñÿã³â ô³íàíñîâèõ äàíèõ äëÿ îö³íêè ðåçóëüòàò³â ÷àñòî ñòèêàºòüñÿ ç òåõí³÷íèìè îáìåæåííÿìè â îá÷èñëþâàëüíèõ ïîòóæíîñòÿõ àáî ïðîãðàìíîìó çàáåçïå÷åíí³, ùî ìîæå ïðèçâîäèòè äî ñïîâ³ëüíåíîãî àíàë³çó àáî óïóùåíèõ êîðèñíèõ ïàòåðí³â. Âïëèâ çîâí³øí³õ ôàêòîð³â: Äëÿ òî÷íîãî ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â íåîáõ³äíî âðàõîâóâàòè âåëèê³ ê³ëüêîñò³ çîâí³øí³õ åêîíîì³÷íèõ, ïîë³òè÷íèõ òà ñîö³àëüíèõ ôàêòîð³â, ÿê³ âàæêî ïåðåäáà÷èòè àáî âðàõóâàòè ó ñòàíäàðòíèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëÿõ. Âèñíîâêè Ïðîâåäåíå äîñë³äæåííÿ äîçâîëèëî âèÿâèòè íèçêó òåîðåòè÷íèõ, ìåòîäè÷íèõ òà ïðàêòè÷íèõ ïðîáëåì ó ñôåð³ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ÿê³ ñòðèìóþòü åôåêòèâí³ñòü óïðàâë³íñüêèõ ð³øåíü íà ì³êðî– òà ìàêðîð³âíÿõ ñåðåä ÿêèõ âèä³ëåíî, ùî ô³íàíñîâ³ ðåçóëüòàòè ï³äïðèºìñòâ çàëèøàþòüñÿ îäí³ºþ ç êëþ÷îâèõ õàðàêòåðèñòèê åêîíîì³÷íî¿ àêòèâíîñò³, îäíàê ³ñíóþ÷à ñòàòèñòè÷íà ìåòîäîëîã³ÿ íå ïîâíîþ ì³ðîþ çàáåçïå÷óº ¿õ äîñòîâ³ðíå òà ïîâíå â³äîáðàæåííÿ. Îñíîâíèìè ïåðåøêîäàìè âèñòóïàþòü ôðàãìåíòàðí³ñòü äàíèõ, íåñòà÷à ìåòîäè÷íî¿ óí³ô³êàö³¿, à òàêîæ â³äñòàâàííÿ ï³äõîä³â â³ä ðåàë³é öèôðîâî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Íà ïðàêòèö³ âèÿâëåíî âèñîêó çàëåæí³ñòü ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â â³ä ãàëóçåâî¿ ñïåöèô³êè, ùî ïîòðåáóº ïåðåõîäó äî á³ëüø ãíó÷êèõ ñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìîäåëåé. Íåäîñòàòíº âèêîðèñòàííÿ ñó÷àñíèõ åêîíîìåòðè÷íèõ òà àíàë³òè÷íèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â çíèæóº ïðîãíîñòè÷íó çäàòí³ñòü ô³íàíñîâî¿ ñòàòèñòèêè òà ¿¿ àíàë³òè÷íó ö³íí³ñòü.  ñòàòò³ àâòîðàìè çàïðîïîíîâàí³ øëÿõè âèð³øåííÿ ïðîáëåì, ùî ñïðèÿòèìå ï³äâèùåííþ ïðîçîðîñò³, òî÷íîñò³ òà àíàë³òè÷íî¿ êîðèñíîñò³ ñòàòèñòèêè ô³íàíñîâèõ ðåçóëüòàò³â, ùî, ó ñâîþ ÷åðãó, ïîçèòèâíî âïëèíå íà ÿê³ñòü åêîíîì³÷íîãî óïðàâë³ííÿ òà ðîçâèòîê ï³äïðèºìíèöòâà. Ñïèñîê âèêîðèñòàíèõ äæåðåë: 1. Âàñèëüºâà Ò. À. Ô³íàíñîâèé àíàë³ç: ìåòîäè÷í³ àñïåêòè. – Ñóìè: ÄÂÍÇ «ÓÀÁÑ ÍÁÓ», 2014. – 264 ñ. 2. Áëàíê ². Î. Ô³íàíñîâèé ìåíåäæìåíò: ï³äðó÷íèê. – Ê.: Öåíòð ó÷áîâî¿ ë³òåðàòóðè, 2016. 3. Fabozzi F. J. Financial Statement Analysis. – Hoboken: Wiley, 2018. – 336 p. 4. Remington M., Walker P. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): An Essential Guide. – London: Kogan Page, 2019. – 256 p. 5. ̳æíàðîäí³ ñòàíäàðòè ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³ (ÌÑÔÇ): îô³ö³éíèé ïåðåêëàä. – Êè¿â: ˳ãà–Çàêîí, 2023. – 1450 ñ.
ÌÀÊÐÎÅÊÎÍÎ̲×Ͳ ÀÑÏÅÊÒÈ ÑÓ×ÀÑÍί ÅÊÎÍÎ̲ÊÈ 16 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈͳÊÐÀÍww 6. OECD. Economic Outlook 2024. – Paris: OECD Publishing, 2024. – 290 p. 7. Êîâàëåíêî Ë. Î. Ñòàòèñòè÷í³ ìåòîäè â åêîíîì³ö³: ï³äðó÷íèê. – Êè¿â: ÊÍÅÓ, 2019. – 420 ñ. 8. Smith J., Brown T. Statistical Methods for Business. – London: Routledge, 2022. – 385 p. 9. Ïîääºðüîã³í À. Ì. Ô³íàíñîâèé ìåíåäæìåíò. – Ê.: ÊÍÅÓ, 2022. 10. IMF. World Economic Outlook: Digitalization and Growth. – Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2023. – 210 p. 11. World Bank. Global Economic Prospects 2024. – Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024. – 250 p. 12. Ãåºöü Â. Ì. Ñòðàòåã³÷í³ âèêëèêè ÕÕ² ñòîë³òòÿ. – Ê.: ÍÀÍ Óêðà¿íè, 2019. 13. ʳíäçåðñüêèé Þ. Â. ²ííîâàö³éíèé ðîçâèòîê ï³äïðèºìñòâ. – Ê.: Íàóê. äóìêà, 2020. 14. Áëîíñüêà ². Þ. Ñòàòèñòè÷íèé àíàë³ç ïðèáóòêîâîñò³ ï³äïðèºìñòâ / ². Þ. Áëîíñüêà // Åêîíîì³êà ³ ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ. – 2021. – ¹ 2. References: 1. Vasyliieva, T. A. (2014). Finansovyi analiz: metodychni aspekty [Financial analysis: Methodical aspects]. Sumy: DVNZ «UABS NBU». 2. Blank, I. O. (2016). Finansovyi menedzhment: pidruchnyk [Financial management: Textbook]. Kyiv: Tsentr uchbovoi literatury. 3. Fabozzi, F. J. (2018). Financial statement analysis. Hoboken: Wiley. 4. Remington, M., & Walker, P. (2019). International financial reporting standards (IFRS): An essential guide. London: Kogan Page. 5. Liga–Zakon. (2023). Mizhnarodni standarty finansovoi zvitnosti (MSFZ): ofitsiinyi pereklad [International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): Official translation]. Kyiv: Liga–Zakon. 6. OECD. (2024). Economic outlook 2024. Paris: OECD Publishing. 7. Kovalenko, L. O. (2019). Statystychni metody v ekonomitsi: pidruchnyk [Statistical methods in economics: Textbook]. Kyiv: KNEU. 8. Smith, J., & Brown, T. (2022). Statistical methods for business. London: Routledge. 9. Poddierohin, A. M. (2022). Finansovyi menedzhment [Financial management]. Kyiv: KNEU. 10. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). World economic outlook: Digitalization and growth. Washington, DC: IMF. 11. World Bank. (2024). Global economic prospects 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 12. Heiets, V. M. (2019). Stratehichni vyklyky XXI stolittia [Strategic challenges of the 21st century]. Kyiv: NAN Ukrainy. 13. Kindzerskyi, Yu. V. (2020). Innovatsiinyi rozvytok pidpryiemstv [Innovative development of enterprises]. Kyiv: Naukova dumka. 14. Blonska, I. Yu. (2021). Statystychnyi analiz prybutkovosti pidpryiemstv [Statistical analysis of enterprise profitability]. Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia, (2). Äàí³ ïðî àâòîð³â Ñîëîì÷óê Ëþäìèëà Ìèêîëà¿âíà, ê.å.í., äîöåíò êàôåäðè îáë³êó ³ àóäèòó Íàö³îíàëüíèé óí³âåðñèòåò õàð÷îâèõ òåõíîëîã³é, ì. Êè¿â ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009–0009–2393–6323 e–mail: [email protected] Ìèõàéëåíêî Îëüãà Âàëåð³¿âíà, ê.å.í., äîöåíò êàôåäðè îáë³êó ³ àóäèòó, Íàö³îíàëüíèé óí³âåðñèòåò õàð÷îâèõ òåõíîëîã³é, ì. Êè¿â ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000–0002–8552–5601 Ñêîìîðîõîâà Ñâ³òëàíà Þð³¿âíà, ñòàðøèé âèêëàäà÷ êàôåäðè îáë³êó ³ àóäèòó, Íàö³îíàëüíèé óí³âåðñèòåò õàð÷îâèõ òåõíîëîã³é, ì. Êè¿â ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009–0004–1587–0575 Data about author Liudmyla Solomchuk, Phd in Economics, associate professor of the department of accounting and auditing National University of Food Technologies, Kyiv e–mail: [email protected] Olha Mykhailenko, PhD in Economics, associate professor of the department of accounting and auditing National University of Food Technologies, Kyiv Svitlana Skomorohova, Senior Lecturer, of the department of accounting and auditing National University of Food Technologies, Kyiv