Deliverable 1.2 The definition for the pilot set of Essential Arctic Variables

1 Deliverable D1.2 The definition for the pilot set of Essential Arctic Variables Version number 1.0 Version date 25.11.2024 101003472 - Arctic PASSION Ref. Ares(2025)392212 - 17/01/2025 2 Work package Establishing an adaptive and more complete Arctic Observing System Lead beneficiary SIOS-KC (Task 1.1b) NPI (WP1) Lead author Ilkka Matero – SIOS-KC Contributors Heïdi Sevestre - AMAP Heikki Lihavainen – SIOS-KC Jan Rene Larsen – AMAP Katriina Veijola – FMI Maribeth Murray - AINA Mikko Strahlendorff – FMI Talia Wells - AINA Status Complete Dissemination level Public 3 1. Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 1 2. Introduction and the structure of the report .................................................................................. 1 3. Methods and results ........................................................................................................................ 2 a. Permafrost ................................................................................................................................... 4 b. Wildfires....................................................................................................................................... 4 c. Sea-ice.......................................................................................................................................... 6 4. Collaborations .................................................................................................................................. 7 a. Collaboration with other Work Packages .................................................................................... 7 b. External collaboration (e.g., stakeholders, other projects/programmes)................................... 7 5. Policy relevance and societal benefits ............................................................................................. 8 6. References ....................................................................................................................................... 9 a. List of acronyms ........................................................................................................................... 9 b. References ................................................................................................................................... 9 1 1. Executive summary The definition of Shared Arctic Variables (SAVs) is an important component of the efforts in Arctic PASSION to advance Arctic observation and data systems. This report outlines the process that has been piloted for three themes – Permafrost, Wildfires and Sea Ice – and guided by the ROADS (Roadmap for Arctic Observing and Data Systems) process developed by the Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON). The SAV definition emphasizes shared ownership of these variables across scientific, Indigenous and Arctic communities, as well as relevance at local, regional and global scales. Inclusivity and engagement with all Arctic rights holders and stakeholders is at the heart of this process. A collaborative approach in defining SAVs aims to ensure that future Arctic observation systems meet the needs of all and contribute to the broader goal of a sustainable and resilient Arctic in the future. In addition to the first SAVs proposed as an outcome of this work, the efforts described in this report have contributed to the general framework of the SAV definition process. The outcomes of this work are expected to offer significant societal benefits through improving the monitoring and prediction of Arctic changes, and the inclusion of Indigenous Knowledge and community needs ensures that the framework addresses both local and global interests. The definition of SAVs also provides resources for international collaboration and Arctic governance through standardization of observing strategies across borders. This report summarizes the SAV definition process and outcomes from the efforts piloting this process. 2. Introduction and the structure of the report The key motivation behind Arctic PASSION is to contribute to the co-creation and implementation of a coherent, integrated Arctic observing system. It aims to overcome known shortcomings in the current observing systems by refining their operability, improving, and extending pan-Arctic scientific and community-based monitoring and integrating Indigenous and Local knowledge. It also aims to improve access to and interoperability of Arctic data systems and services, and to help ensure the economic viability and sustainability of the observing system. The identification and implementation of Shared Arctic Variables (SAV) are key elements in Arctic PASSION and the objective is to define SAVs for three themes. This definition work follows and is guided by the ROADS1 (Roadmap for Arctic Observing and Data Systems) process that was developed by Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON, https://arcticobserving.org) and the participants in the biennial Arctic Observing Summits (AOS, https://arcticobservingsummit.org). The SAVs were initially developed under an essential variable framework as Essential Arctic Variables (EAV), and they were referred to as EAVs in the proposal stage of Arctic PASSION when this deliverable was written. Some of the key motivators behind the renaming of EAVs to SAVs were to emphasize the shared ownership and benefits of the SAV framework, and to distinguish them from the essential variable framework of The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) of the World Meteorological Organization which are primarily a product of the scientific and modelling communities. The ‘shared’ aspect of SAVs highlights that the interest in a SAV can come from three levels: 1. Local - Meeting community-identified benefits in Indigenous and other Arctic communities. 2 2. Regional - Supporting fundamental understanding of Arctic systems and regional decisionmaking needs. 3. Global - Informing science and decision-making needs at the global scale and integrating with operational global networks. This change in the expected outcomes from the ROADS process to move from EAVs to SAVs has complicated the process and is part of the reason that the process has been more time-consuming than expected in the grant preparatory phase when the task and deliverable were drafted. The development of SAVs is a phased approach (described below) with four phases, each of an approximate duration of half a year. For the three pilot SAV Expert Panels (EP) established under ArcticPASSION, this has taken longer, and the EPs are unlikely to complete all four phases of the ROADS process and to reach the full definition of the first set of SAVs for all three themes. There is reason to believe that new EPs established after this pilot effort can work through the phases in alignment with the expected completion times. The SAV definition work in Arctic PASSION is facilitated through EPs that combine different worldviews and expertise for each of the three themes. The panels comprise representatives from the project partners and relevant rights holder and stakeholder groups for each theme to ensure that the interests and needs at all three levels (local, regional and global) are met. Inclusivity and collaboration with individuals, organizations and communities outside the Arctic PASSION project is a crucial guiding principle for forming the EPs. The definition work is done in parallel for the themes by the EPs, with regular dialogue between the panel facilitators who are all contributors to the Arctic PASSION Task 1.1b to which this deliverable is linked. This report first summarizes the framework, methods and outcomes of the definition work for the three SAV themes piloted in Arctic PASSION: Permafrost, Wildfires and Sea-Ice. This is followed by a description of the collaborations both within the project and with external collaborators. The report also includes key envisioned societal and policy relevance of the SAV definition process and references. 3. Methods and results The Task 1.1b work to which this deliverable is linked is steered by a task team with representatives from the following WP1 project partners: SIOS-KC, AMAP, FMI & AINA. The task team has organized their work through monthly meetings, in which representatives from the SAON ROADS Advisory Panel (AP) and the Arctic PASSION coordinator regularly take part. These meetings focus on ensuring that the SAV definition and EP work are aligned among the three themes and serve as a forum for keeping track of progress in each. The definition and EP work is guided by a common framework that is followed for all the themes, and is divided into 4 phases2: 1. Phase I – Initiate an Expert Panel An Initial 2–3-person expert group will propose an EP with scope, purpose, gaps, societal benefit and recommendation for a full 10-12-person panel. 2. Phase II – Define and Assess Impactful Observables 3 The EP will convene and co-develop the “why” of the plan, specifically a culturaland policyrelevant societal benefit analysis and potential impacts. 3. Phase III – Develop Observing and Data Systems Requirements The EP will then develop the “who, what, where, how and when” details of the plan. 4. Phase IV – Develop Implementation Strategies The EP will develop strategies to implement their well-defined plan, including specific commitments. The EP and the SAON ROADS Advisory Panel will work to get the plan adopted and implemented. The outcomes and phase documentation from each of the currently active EPs under the ROADS process can be accessed here: https://roadsadvisorypanel.org/expert-panel Figure 1: Basket diagram of the Integrated Advisory Process. The different types of Expert Panels (Regional, Topical and IssueDriven) are examples of the possible foci for the EPs that are being set up as part of the process. Each of the planned phases is expected to take approximately six months to complete, with the total time for SAV definition work expected to take approximately two years from initiation to completion (Fig. 1). Arctic PASSION is piloting this SAV EP process and is in two-way dialogue with the SAON ROADS AP on co-developing the integrated advisory process including discussion of the proposed timelines. The process is ongoing and the SAV definition work for the three themes is taking longer than the six months per phase suggesting that more flexibility both with respect to proposed timelines and pathways to identification of SAVs is needed. Co-development is not a one size fits all process, and flexibility is required given the expected time commitments from panel members, and the many different cultural, knowledge, local, regional and national perspectives. The progress and results from each of the three themes are specified below. 4 a. Permafrost There are two tentative titles for the theme, either “Permafrost” or “Living on Frozen Ground”. This theme was chosen because expected changes in the permafrost conditions are having and will continue to have significant consequences for both Arctic communities and the natural environment. The EP has two regional foci: Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories, Canada, and the Norwegian Archipelago in Svalbard. The EP has Indigenous representatives from Tuktoyaktuk, engineers, local community members in Svalbard and scientists working in the Arctic from the Natural, Health and Social Sciences. The EP has had two in-person workshops and two online workshops. Phase I is complete and the EP is preparing to submit the phase II (Fig. 1) report and has started discussing phase III of the Integrated Advisory Process. The phase II report is expected to include a proposal for the first set of SAVs including (1) Active Layer Thickness and (2) Ground deformation. Impacts of changes in permafrost on human health have been discussed as a potential third SAV, and the EP is currently in discourse about whether to include this. One of the key outcomes from the phase II work of the EP was an assessment of the societal benefits flowing from improved observing and understanding of expected and ongoing changes in permafrost conditions in the Arctic. The International Arctic Observations Assessment Framework (IAOAF)4 was used for the assessment, and the most pronounced benefits will come from improved disaster preparedness, improved safety for infrastructure and operations, and improved human health through better understanding future changes and reducing stress within Arctic communities. The EP expects to deliver the phase II report before the end of the year 2024, and to get the phase documentation revised and accepted within the project timeframe. They also expect to continue discussion on phase III of the process in a hybrid meeting as part of the ASSW2025 in Boulder, Colorado, USA. These deliberations will include agreeing on stewardship of the EP beyond the Arctic PASSION project, and how to continue into phase IV and completion of the SAV definition. b. Wildfires This theme was chosen as wildfires have become more intense and more frequent and are negatively affecting people who live in the Arctic and especially Indigenous People. The SAV work is ongoing for two regions: Finland and North America. The Finnish SAV work is led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI and the North American SAV work continues now led by the researcher form the University of Alaska Fairbanks. In Finland, there have been four in-person workshops. There has been some remote participation as well. In the North American work there has been one initiating meeting in Finland in which some of the participants attended remotely. There was also a Wildfire session organized at the Arctic Observing Summit (AOS) event, in Edinburgh. The Finnish SAV work is in phase III; phase I and phase II documents have been prepared with the phase II document in revision and the phase III document soon to be finalized. In Finland, the National Wildfire project (Arctic Wildfire Preparedness) has supported defining Wildfire SAVs in Arctic PASSION. Indigenous Sámi people (e.g. reindeer herders) are engaged in the EP along with representatives from the Lapland Rescue Service, the Finnish Forest Center, Regional Administration, and researchers from Finland and elsewhere. 5 During phase I, many variables of interest related to ignition and fire prone areas were identified. The EP of the Finnish Wildfire work consisted of only a few people at the start of the process. Several members (including researchers and Indigenous People) from different backgrounds joined the EP in later stages, and it was expanded further. In phase II, societal benefits were assessed using the IAOAF framework to link wildfire-related observations to societal benefits in different areas. A Wildfire Value Tree was created and 49 key objectives from six Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that were relevant for wildfires were identified. Disaster management and protecting infrastructures were present in most as the background themes. As a result, a proposal for the SAV “Ignition Identification” was presented in phase II report. Ignition identification can be used to tag false alarms and improve rescue service application of fire and smoke propagation predictions. Besides Earth Observation (EO) data, local observations are also needed. In phase III, a workshop was organized to define requirements for the proposed SAV. Information was gathered related to human activities, ignition detection and fire prone terrain. Those elements are proposed for inclusion in the ignition identification SAV (see Table 1). During the SAV process, the AP reviewed the documents, gave comments and valuable suggestions to improve the documents and helped the EP prepare for the next phase. The phase III document is now being improved based on the phase III documentation drafted by the AP. There is still some work to decide what observations, data sources, etc. will be included in the proposed Wildfire SAV (see Figure 1). In phase IV, the purpose is to implement the proposed SAV which may help people living or acting in the Arctic to deal with wildfire, especially in finding out what is burning and what is the expected fire spread due to the fire sensitivity of the terrain and weather conditions. At the moment, the Finnish Wildfire work is going towards the implementation phase. The EP of the Finnish Wildfire SAV is working on a demo application related to the proposed Wildfire SAV in another National Wildfire project (Fire Sensitivity of Arctic Terrain) funded by the Ministry for foreign affairs of Finland. Unfortunately, some members of the EP are not involved at this stage of the SAV process due to competing obligations. The application could be part of the already existing LUONTOON.FI platform by Metsähallitus that has been provided for several years and is foreseen to continue in the future. In addition, wildfire warnings could be added to the platform. The development of the observation service for people walking in nature (demo) has started and after a year, the demo will be tested and so more people (hikers etc.) may add information (also photos) e.g. terrain moisture to the application to help rescue services and other users to see how vulnerable terrain is to fire ignition and spread. The purpose is to also involve other Nordic countries in the SAV process. The North American work is in phase I: The work of initiating the EP continues and the final composition of the EP is forming. There is a workshop planned for North America in 2025 to bring together the North American Wildfire EP and to continue the interesting work related to wildfire observations, data, and needs so as to define the North American Wildfire SAV. In this work, the Finnish SAV can be used as a helpful example, although wildfires in Finland and North America have many differences and there could be quite a different SAV designed for the North American region of the Arctic. There will be some funding from the Arctic PASSION project and other funding has been applied for. 6 Table 1. Definitions of the elements of the Ignition Identification SAV. Shared Arctic Variable Definition Ignition Identification Wildfire ignition location, source and terrain characteristics are identified and the probable fire spread can be modelled. Ignition identification consists of three elements: human activities, ignition detection and fire prone terrain. Shared Arctic Variable Sub-Variables Definition Ignition Identification Human activities Identifying and tracking human activities in the area that may cause wildfire. Livelihood activities, infrastructure and tourism, careless or ignorant use of fire, and hot sparks or heated parts of working vehicles are identified as ignition risk factors. Identifying sites for ignition risk is key for wildfire preparedness and response. Ignition detection Detecting ignition of wildfire by using EO satellites (hot spots, smoke plumes) and human detection (citizens, fire brigade information). Fire prone terrain Identifying terrain that is prone to burn easily using e.g. soil/vegetation moisture information. For example, dry forest heaths are particularly sensitive ignition sites. c. Sea-ice The focus of the Sea Ice EP is the Baffin Bay region. It is a region fundamentally shaped by its ice-covered landscapes and whose jurisdiction is shared by Inuit in Canada and Greenland, and the governments of Canada, Greenland, and Denmark. Sea ice is a critical platform for life, for traditional travel routes, and supports Indigenous subsistence activities. However, rapid sea ice decline with respect to both extent and age over recent decades has profoundly altered the region leading to significant ecological stressors and introducing new risks, challenges, and opportunities for Arctic communities, the research community, and the public and private sectors. The objective of the Sea Ice EP is to facilitate continued and coordinated monitoring of sea ice change in Baffin Bay. The region, spanning from Ellesmere Island to Nunatsiavut, is notable for its extensive political, economic, and cultural ties between Canadian and Greenlandic communities.