Physics Reach of Future Atmospheric ν experiments

Physics Reach of Future Atmospheric experiments ν Iván Martínez Soler XXI Workshop on Neutrino Telescopes October 3, 2025 /GeV) ν (E 10 Log -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 ] -1 sr -1 sec -2 [GeV cmΦ 2 E -9 10 -8 10 -7 10 -6 10 -5 10 -4 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 10 µ ν Super-Kamiokande I-IV µ ν Frejus unfolding µ ν IceCube forward folding µ ν IceCube unfolding µ ν AMANDA-II forward folding µ ν AMANDA-II µ ν ANTARES (w/ osc.) µ ν+ µ ν HKKM11 e ν Super-Kamiokande I-IV e ν Frejus e ν IceCube/DeepCore 2013 e ν IceCube 2014 (w/ osc.) e ν+ e ν HKKM11 ANTARES νe Atmospheric neutrinos are created in the collision of cosmic rays with the atmospheric nuclei π→μνμ K→μνμ μ→e¯νe¯νμ E. Richard et al. (SK), PRD 94 (2016) 5 Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 2 Atmospheric Neutrinos 3 νe+νe νμ+νμ νμ νμ νe νe 0.1 1 10 100 1000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 E(GeV) Flux Ratio The most recent atmospheric neutrino flux estimations are based on 3D-MC simulation ϕνi=ϕp⊗Rp⊗Yp→νi+∑ A ϕA⊗RA⊗YA→νi The atmospheric flux composition changes with the energy Honda, Sajjad Athar, Kajita, Kasahara, Midorikawa PRD 92 (2015) The main components in the flux calculations are:! •Cosmic ray flux ( )! •Geomagnetic effects (R)! •Hadronic interactions (Y) ϕp Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Atmospheric Neutrinos See also: Yañez and Fedynitch, Phys.Rev.D 107 (2023) Matter effects play a crucial role in the evolution of atmospheric neutrinos idν dE =1 2Eν (U†diag(0,Δm2 21,Δm2 31)U±Vmat)ν Vmat = 2 2GFNeEνdiag(1,0,0) 4 0 2000 4000 6000 r[km] 5 10 Ω[g/cm3] PREM Wolfenstein, PRD 17 (1978)! Mikheyev and Smirnov, Yad.Fix 42 (1985) Dziewonski and Anderson, Phys. Earth Planet Interiors 25 (1981) Neutrino Evolution in Matter Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) π− /2π− 0 /2π π CP δ 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 χ∆ V expanded FV−SK I Data fit Inverted MC expectation Normal 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 13 θ 2 sin 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 χ∆ 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 ) 2 eV -3 (10 32,31 2 m∆ 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 χ∆ 68% 90% 95% 99% 0.4 0.5 0.6 23 θ 2 sin 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 χ∆ Several experiments have measured the atmospheric neutrino flux, with SK starting from the sub-GeV scale. Super-Kamiokande (SK) •22.5 kton water Cherenkov! •Small sample at multi-GeV due to the volume! •The event sample is divided in FC, PC and Upμ 5 Abe et al. (Super-Kamiokande), PRD 97 (2018) Wester et al. (Super-Kamiokande), arXiv: 2311.05105 Super-Kamiokande See Lucas N. Machado’s Talk Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) The neutrino telescopes measure the atmospheric neutrino flux from the multi-GeV scale • ice Cherenkov! •The sample is divided into tracks and cascades! •The upgrade will add seven additional strings lowering the energy threshold to ~1GeV! ∼1km3 6 0 0.5 1 ·105 rate [1/s] ⌫µ+¯⌫µ, CC background total MC No Osc. data 101102103 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 L/E [km/GeV] rate/total MC 0 0.5 1 ·105 rate [1/s] ⌫µ+¯⌫µ, CC background total MC No Osc. data 101102103 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 L/E [km/GeV] rate/total MC Abbasi et al. (IceCube), PRD 108 (2023) Abbasi et al. (IceCube), arXiv: 2405.02163 Wilks' IceCube See Summer Blot Talk Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 7 The total expected volume is 7 Mt, with events classified into high-purity tracks, low-purity tracks, and showers ORCA measures the multi-GeV component of the atmospheric neutrino flux from ~2GeV Carretero et al. (KM3NeT), PoS ICRC2023 Aiello (KM3NeT), EPJC 82, 26 (2022) ORCA A. Lazo (KM3NeT), ICHEP 2024 Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Atmospheric Mass-Squared Splitting Combining different datasets results in significant synergy, as the global regions are smaller than the individual ones. 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 ∆m2 32 [10-3 eV2] ∆m2 31 NOvA T2K MINOS IC19 SuperK IC24 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 sin2θ23 -3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 Reno DayaBay Dbl-Chooz 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 sin2θ13 [2σ] NuFIT 6.0 (2024) 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 ∆m2 32 [10-3 eV2] ∆m2 31 NOvA T2K MINOS IC19 SuperK IC24 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 sin2θ23 -3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 Reno DayaBay Dbl-Chooz 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 sin2θ13 [2σ] NuFIT 6.0 (2024) •Colored regions: LBL+IC19! •Black-dashed: LBL+IC24+SK! •Good agreement with reactor experiments! •Preference for the higher octant ( ) sin2θ23 = 0.561 8 I Esteban, MC Gonzalez-Garcia, M Maltoni, IMS,JP Pinheiro, T Schwetz, JHEP 12 (2025) See C. Gonzalez-Garcia, A. Marrone 0 5 10 15 ∆χ2 Reactors LBL-comb IceCube Global -3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 ∆m2 32 [10-3 eV2] 0 5 10 15 ∆χ2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 ∆m2 31 [10-3 eV2] Reactors R + LBL-comb R + IceCube R + Global NuFIT 6.0 (2024) solid = IC19, dashed = IC24 0 5 10 15 ∆χ2 Reactors LBL-comb IceCube Global -3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 ∆m2 32 [10-3 eV2] 0 5 10 15 ∆χ2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 ∆m2 31 [10-3 eV2] Reactors R + LBL-comb R + IceCube R + Global NuFIT 6.0 (2024) solid = IC19, dashed = IC24 Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Mass Ordering •Combining IC24+Reactors, we get a preference for NO of ! •Super-Kamiokande alone shows a preference for NO of ! •Combining IC+SK+global fit results in a preference for NO of Δχ2∼4.5 Δχ2∼4.5 Δχ2∼6.1 9 I Esteban, MC Gonzalez-Garcia, M Maltoni, IMS,JP Pinheiro, T Schwetz, JHEP 12 (2025) See C. Gonzalez-Garcia, A. Marrone Systematic uncertainties The uncertainties on the atmospheric neutrino flux and the cross-section are common to all detectors. Systematic Uncer./Prior CCQE 10% CCQE 10% CCQE 10% CC1 10% CC1 40% CC1 10% CC1 10% Coh. 100% Axial Mass 10% NC hadron 5% NC over CC 10% 25% Neutron prod. 15% DIS 10% ν/ν e/μ π π π0/π± π νe/νe π νμ/νμ π ντ Cross-section systematics ν/ν Different types of interactions affect the atmospheric neutrino measurements due to the large energy range covered 16 Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Combined analysis: and θ23 Δm2 31 Making a combined analysis of SK, HK, IceCube-upgrade and ORCA we have estimated the sensitivity to , and the mass ordering δcp θ23 17 ~10GeV neutrino reconstruction improves and precision sin2θ23 Δm2 31 Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Combined analysis: mass ordering The sensitivity to the ordering is dominated by the cascades crossing the core in IC-upgrade and ORCA around the GeV.! 18 Very localized effect, requires good energy and angular resolution. Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Combined analysis: δcp The sensitivity to is dominated by Super-Kamiokande δcp •The samples that dominate the sensitivity are the e-like and -like with no neutron tagged! μ 19 Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Systematic impact DetectorCross-sectionFlux A detailed analysis of all the systematics is performed. The uncertainties related to the flux have a larger impact on δCP 20 Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 21 Boosting the Sentivity with Inelasticity The mass ordering and the CP-phase predict a different oscillations between neutrinos and antineutrinos. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 y 2 4 6 8 dæ/dy [10°38cm2] ¯∫ ∫ •- CC interaction the energy is devided between tracks and cascades.! •Neutrinos and antineutrinos divide their energy differently between the leptonic and the hadronic part differently νμ y=Ecasc Eν Ribordy and Smirnov, PRD, 87 (2013) Giner Olavarrieta, Jin, Argüelles, Fernández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) dσCC (−) ν dydx =G2 Fxs 2π((−) Q(x) + ¯ Q(x)×(1 −y)2) Q(x): Parton Distribution functions μ Casca 22 The reconstructed inelasticity is based on the reconstructed energies of the track and the cascade. Reconstructed inelasticity yr=Ecasc r Ecasc r+Etrack r Giner Olavarrieta, Jin, Argüelles, Fernández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024) Kronmueller et al. (IceCube), ICRC2019 Peterson et al. (IceCube), PoS ICRC2023 NO IO Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Boosting the Sentivity with Inelasticity 23 •The inelasticity allows for a 50% increase in sensitivity to the mass ordering, reaching in 5 years. ! •In the case of , the sensitivity increases by 15% 8.4σ δCP Giner Olavarrieta, Jin, Argüelles, Fernández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Boosting the Sentivity with Inelasticity Next generation of reactor experiments will perform a very precise measurement of Δm2 ee Pee = 1 −cos4θ13 sin22θ12 sin2Δ21 −1 2sin22θ13(1 −1−sin22θ12 sin2Δ21 sin2(2|Δee |±ϕ)) Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 24 Reactors Δm2 ee =Δm2 31 −sin2θ12Δm2 21 A. Abusleme et al. (JUNO) Chin.Phys.C 46 (2022) ϕ= arctan(cos 2θ12 tan Δ21) S. Parke, PRD 93 (2016) See Monica Sisti Talk Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 25 Reactors and Neutrino Telescopes Pμμ ≃1−sin22θμμ sin2Δm2 μμL 4E+o(2EVCC sin2θ13 Δm2 31 ) Δm2 μμ =Δm2 31 −cos2θ12Δm2 21 sin2θμμ = cos2θ13 sin2θ23 Neutrino telescopes measure looking for muon disappearance Δm2 31 Bonus: sensitivity over θ13 2σ Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) The measurement of the atmospheric resonance also gives us a sensitivity to sin2θ13 32 Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) Tracks are very sensitive to large values of θ13 The value of determine the energy where the MSW resonance happen θ13 33 Booting the Sentivity with Inelasticity To test the results, we explored different uncertainties in the inelasticity There is a large uncertainty in the inelasticity when most of the energy goes to the cascade. Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) 34 Super-Kamiokande Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023) We have developed a simulation of SK considering all the phases and Hyper-Kamiokande 35 Ivan Martinez-Soler (IPPP) Comparison between Neutrino Telescopes Effective volume IceCube Upgrade ORCA Tracks Tracks Cascades Cascades Argüelles, Fernandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)