Policy Brief n°7 - Bridging the Feasibility Gap in Energy Transitions: Policy Insights from MultiCountry Stakeholder Consultations

Bridging the Feasibility Gap in Energy Transitions: Policy Insights from MultiCountry Stakeholder Consultations October 2025 Policy Brief n.7 Funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094551 v v Key messages A rapid, inclusive, and deep transformation of energy systems is essential not only to meet climate targets, but to safeguard planetary health and to foster sustainable human development. Despite growing policy ambition, energy transition scenarios continue to overlook social, political, and institutional implementation challenges. Stakeholders across Europe, Africa, and Asia identify eight common categories of transition barriers, including social resistance, economic constraints, policy incoherence, vested interests, administrative barriers, infrastructure limitations, skills gaps and supply chain bottlenecks. These barriers are interdependent and systemic; they must be addressed collectively to avoid technically sound but practically unachievable transition pathways. Future scenario modeling and policy strategies should integrate stakeholder-informed insights to align ambition with on-the-ground feasibility. Background & Context The urgency of accelerating the energy transition has never been greater. According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report (2023), current global emissions reduction efforts remain insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C, and delayed action significantly raises the risks of irreversible impacts on ecosystems, livelihoods, and human well-being. A rapid, inclusive, and deep transformation of energy systems is therefore essential – not only to meet climate targets, but to safeguard planetary health and sustainable human development. Scenarios are a fundamental tool in planning sustainability and energy transitions. They help policymakers explore future possibilities and define roadmaps for reducing emissions and achieving long-term goals. However, most current energy transition scenarios are developed through integrated assessment models that focus primarily on technical, economic, and environmental variables. While these models are important, they often fail to reflect the real-world challenges that determine whether policies can actually be implemented. One key shortcoming is the systematic exclusion of social, political, and institutional dimensions. As highlighted by recent literature and reinforced by our findings, ignoring these dimensions leads to transition pathways that may appear feasible on paper but are unlikely to succeed in practice. Political resistance, social backlash, governance limitations, and public trust are not peripheral issues – they are core determinants of transition success. To bridge this “feasibility gap,” the SPES project undertook a series of structured stakeholder consultations between 2024 and 2025 across seven countries – France, Hungary, Italy, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan – and at the EU level. The aim was to better understand which barriers policymakers and practitioners consider most critical to implementation, and how these barriers play out across highly diverse socio-economic and institutional contexts. More than 100 high-level stakeholders participated in these engagements, including government officials, civil society organizations, researchers, energy companies, labor unions, and international development partners. The consultations took different formats depending on local context – from high-level dialogues and expert interviews to full-day national workshops – reflecting the need for both local specificity and cross-country comparison. Despite significant differences in political structures, energy systems, and development priorities, the views expressed across regions revealed a striking convergence. Stakeholders consistently identified the same categories of barriers – social, economic, institutional, and political – as fundamental constraints. This convergence suggests that these challenges are not isolated or contextspecific, but systemic and global in nature. Stakeholder consultations consistently hihghlight the same categories of barriers – social, economic, institutional, and political – as fundamental constraints. This convergence suggests that these challenges are not isolated or context-specific, but systemic and global in nature. SPES Evidence Nigeria and Pakistan, as well as at the EU-level, stakeholders argued that the lack of fiscal space severely limits implementation capacity. 2. Social acceptance and public resistance Policies that involve behavioural changes or impose financial burdens often face public opposition. For instance, participants in Hungary noted political resistance to policies encouraging reduced meat consumption. In Italy, participants noted widespread public skepticism toward the social impacts of environmental policies, often fuelled by political narratives – particularly from far-right parties – that frame the green transition as being in conflict with economic security and social well-being. In Nigeria and Kenya, participants warned of intense backlash to carbon taxes and subsidy reforms due to affordability concerns. French and EU stakeholders highlighted the political consequences of poorly designed carbon pricing, such as the Yellow Vest protests. The stakeholder consultations across Europe, Africa, and Asia revealed eight recurring categories of barriers to energy transition implementation. Although the manifestations of these challenges varied across countries, their systemic nature was evident, as was the need to address them holistically. Notably, the interconnectedness of these challenges means that tackling one barrier often requires interventions in several others. 1. Economic and financial constraints Stakeholders emphasized both household-level affordability issues and large-scale investment gaps. In France, the cost of installing a heat pump remains out of reach for many households. Similar issues were mentioned in the EU context, where high upfront costs for electric vehicles and renovations de facto prohibit households from accessing them. In Hungary, renovation costs exceed home values for retirees. In Italy, high energy costs – driven by the country’s heavy reliance on gas – place a significant burden on both households and businesses; stakeholders noted that consumers are insufficiently protected by incentive schemes, limiting their ability to cope with rising prices or invest in clean alternatives. In 3. Political power and vested interests Stakeholders identified strong resistance from incumbent industries and their political allies, leading, for instance, to the rollback or delaying implementation of key sustainability and energy transition policies at the EU level. Fossil fuel and agricultural lobbies were frequently cited as powerful forces obstructing reform and slowing-down the transition towards renewable energies, particularly in France, Italy and Hungary. In Kenya, participants highlighted “cartel-like” behavior in energy procurement contracts. 4. Governance and policy coherence Inconsistent and sometimes contradictory policies were seen as a major barrier. For example, Hungary’s industrial development plans conflict with decarbonization goals. In Italy, stakeholders pointed to the absence of a comprehensive legislative framework to deliver on climate targets and accelerate the adoption of renewable energy, and that the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan does not provide a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, undermining policy coherence and investor confidence. In Nigeria and Kenya, governance fragmentation and weak coordination across institutions undermine implementation efforts. EU stakeholders noted that even well-designed policies often falter due to poor follow-through and lack of accountability. 5. Regulatory and administrative barriers Slow permitting processes, overlapping mandates, and excessive bureaucracy delay project rollout. Hungarian stakeholders described renewable energy projects taking up to seven years to reach grid connection. In France and Nigeria, funding opportunities are underutilized due to complex administrative procedures. In Italy, bureaucratic procedures must be simplified to facilitate the access to funding, incentives and clean technologies. 6. Workforce and skills gaps Implementation capacity is constrained by a shortage of skilled labor. In France and Hungary, the construction sector lacks trained workers for building retrofits. In Kenya and Pakistan, stakeholders noted limited technical capacity to manage new technologies like EVs and smart grids. Those in Italy noted that active The interconnectedness of the identified challenges means that tackling one barrier often requires interventions in several others. 8. Industrial and supply chain bottlenecks Heavy reliance on imported technologies, lack of domestic production capacity, and supply vulnerabilities were flagged in all regions. For instance, France’s wind industry has largely shifted to foreign ownership, and Pakistan remains highly dependent on imported solar technologies. In Italy, the energy sector remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials and gas, with national supply policies still largely aligned with a Business-as-Usual scenario, limiting progress toward greater energy sovereignty and resilience. These challenges are not just obstacles to be managed—they are systemic barriers that, if unaddressed, risk undermining the credibility and viability of transition strategies, thus hampering the urgent achievement of climate targets. Moreover, their interconnections mean that partial fixes will likely fall short. Effective responses must be multi-dimensional, combining institutional reform, political strategy, economic investment, as well as public engagement and support. labour market policies often overlook critical challenges related to upskilling, reskilling, and worker relocation. They also emphasized the importance of designing both active and passive measures to protect workers at risk of exclusion during the transition. 7. Technology and infrastructure limitations Aging infrastructure, weak grids, and immature technologies were commonly reported. Stakeholders in Pakistan and Kenya highlighted transmission losses and insufficient EV charging networks. In the EU, stakeholders noted that current electricity grids were designed for centralized production, not decentralized renewables. In Italy, it was pointed that the National Energy and Climate Plan places considerable emphasis on technologies such as nuclear power and green hydrogen, which remain too premature to play a meaningful role in the near-term transition. In Hungary, participants identified certain technologies – such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage – as barriers rather than enablers, underscoring the need to better align innovation priorities with practical implementation capacity. The stakeholder consultations across Europe, Africa, and Asia revealed eight recurring categories of barriers to energy transition implementation. Effective responses must be multidimensional, combining institutional reform, political strategy, economic investment, as well as public engagement and support. 03. 04. Strengthen the capacity of public institutions to deliver transition programs. Energy ministries and regulatory authorities must be equipped with the skills, data systems, and financial autonomy needed to manage transition efforts effectively. In Pakistan, weak coordination between energy and finance ministries was cited as a major bottleneck. In Kenya and Nigeria, participants flagged the need for capacity-building at both national and subnational levels to manage decentralized renewable energy deployment and climate finance access. Modernize and decentralize grid infrastructure to enable renewable integration and crossborder energy trade. Governments should prioritize investment in national grid upgrades and establish regulatory frameworks to support distributed energy generation. Stakeholders in Pakistan highlighted the need to expand access through micro-grids in underserved areas and improve grid resilience to accommodate variable renewables. In both African and Asian contexts, harmonizing technical standards across countries would facilitate regional electricity trade and unlock the potential for cross-border collaboration in clean energy development. 05. 06. Expand targeted support for vulnerable households. Ensure affordability and protect low-income groups from the short-term impacts of transition policies. This includes scaling up social protection programs and tariff reform compensation schemes. For example, several Nigerian and Pakistani participants recommended using digital cash transfer platforms (already piloted in other sectors) to mitigate the effects of subsidy reforms or rising electricity costs. Stakeholders in Kenya also called for lifeline electricity tariffs for low-consumption users. Strengthen green skills and support local enterprise development. workforce development with enterprise support. This includes expanding vocational training and apprenticeships in renewable energy, clean cooking, building retrofits, and other emerging sectors. In Nigeria, stakeholders emphasized the importance of including informal sector workers – such as mechanics, masons, and welders – in upskilling initiatives. In both Kenya and Nigeria, support for green Technical and Vocational Education and Training programs was seen as vital to unlocking youth employment potential. At the same time, governments should facilitate the participation of local entrepreneurs and SMEs in clean energy markets by easing licensing and procurement barriers, as in Kenya, and by introducing targeted credit lines and public procurement quotas, as recommended by stakeholders in Nigeria and Pakistan. References & other info IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647. Zens, G., Gathecha, V., Alain, M. (2025). Beyond Technical Feasibility: Cross-National Stakeholder Perspectives on Energy Transitions. SPES Working paper no. 10.2, SPES project – Sustainability Performances, Evidence and Scenarios. Florence: University of Florence. Available at: https://www.sustainabilityperformances.eu/publications-deliverables/ Zens, G., Hoffman, R., Alain, M., Belmin, C. (2024). Sustainable Energy Futures: Transition Scenarios and Instruments in Selected Case Study Regions. SPES Working paper no. 10.1, SPES project – Sustainability Performances, Evidence and Scenarios. Florence: University of Florence. Available at: https://www.sustainabilityperformances.eu/publications-deliverables/ This Policy Brief was written by Marjorie Alain, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP); Katja Reuter, Social Platform. Contributors and peer reviewers Adeola Adenikinju, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP); Vaqar Ahmed, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP); Eric Berr, Bordeaux School of Economics; Jacopo Cammeo, European University Institute; Tiziano Distefano, University of Florence; Andrea Ferrannini, University of Florence; Albert Ferrari, European University Institute; András Gábos, TARKI Social Research Institute; Vanessa Gathecha, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP); Levente András Koczóh, Green Policy Center; André Meunié, Bordeaux School of Economics; Leonardo Paoli, University of Florence; Eric Rougier, Bordeaux University; Stephen Wainaina, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP); Gregor Zens, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Discalimer This deliverable contains original unpublished work except where clearly indicated otherwise. Acknowledgement of previously published material and of the work of others has been made through appropriate citation, quotation or both. This document reflects the authors’ view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Cover photo @Avi Richards for Unsplash Funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094551