D4.4 Participatory modelling for allowing citizens, stakeholders and decisionmakers to become active players in climate action
Abstract
Participatory methods are critical in ensuring that CSs (CS) are not only technically sound but also salient and legitimate in the eyes of the users. This deliverable demonstrates the pivotal role of participatory methods in the co‐creation, learning, and innovation processes required to develop inclusive and actionable CS. Spanning multiple LLs (LLs) across diverse contexts, the project applied a wide range of participatory tools—such as decision timelines, citizen science, and serious games—to involve stakeholders in meaningful ways.
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ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchand innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293 DeliverableD4.4 Participatorymodellingforallowingcitizens,stakeholders anddecision‐makerstobecomeactiveplayersinclimate action May2025
ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchand innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo101037293 InnovatingCSthroughIntegratingScientificandLK DeliverableTitle:Participatorymodellingforallowingcitizens,stakeholdersanddecision‐ makerstobecomeactiveplayersinclimateaction Author(s):SumiranRastogi,NoravanCauwenbergh ContributingAuthors(s):AlexandrosZiogas,PaoloMazzoli,DanieleCastellana,NikolettaRopero Szymañska,NuriaHernández‐Mora,SchalkJanvanAndel,GyörgyiBela BalbinaNyamakura,RiccardoBiella,CharlesWamucii,LotteMuller DateMay2025 Suggestedcitation:Rastogi,S.,VanCauwenbergh,N.,etal.,2025:Participatorymodellingfor allowingcitizens,stakeholdersanddecision‐makerstobecomeactive playersinclimateaction,I‐CISKDeliverableD4.4,Availableonlineatwww. Icisk.eu/resources Availability:☒PU:Thisreportispublic[Pleaseselect] ☐CO:Confidential,onlyformembersoftheconsortium(includingthe CommissionServices) DocumentRevisions: AuthorRevisionDate SumiranRastogiandNoravanCauwenberghFirstdraftApril2025 MichaWerner,GuilianoDiBaldassarre,Riccardo Biella,AnastasiyaShyrokaya RevisionApril2025 SumiranRastogi,NoravanCauwenberghFinaldraftMay2025
1 ExecutiveSummary ParticipatorymethodsarecriticalinensuringthatCSs(CS)arenotonlytechnicallysoundbut alsosalientandlegitimateintheeyesoftheusers.Thisdeliverabledemonstratesthepivotal roleofparticipatorymethodsintheco‐creation,learning,andinnovationprocessesrequiredto developinclusiveandactionableCS.SpanningmultipleLLs(LLs)acrossdiversecontexts,the projectappliedawiderangeofparticipatorytools—suchasdecisiontimelines,citizenscience, andseriousgames—toinvolvestakeholdersinmeaningfulways. ParticipationinI‐CISKextendedfarbeyondconsultation,supportingbothproduct‐andprocess‐ orientedoutcomes.Productoutcomesincludedthedevelopmentofbetter‐aligned,user‐tested services,whileprocessoutcomesinvolvedcapacitybuilding,fosteringlegitimacy,enhancing sustainability,andinformingpolicy.Importantly,participatoryapproachesfacilitatedsocial learning—transforminghowclimateknowledgeisshared,interpreted,andused.Stakeholders evolvedfrompassiverecipientsofclimateinformationtoactiveco‐creators,helpingtoshape morecontext‐sensitiveandenduringresponsestoclimaterisks.Theseparticipatory engagementsprovedessentialinbuildingtrust,strengtheninglocalagency,andembedding resiliencethinkingintobroadergovernanceanddecision‐makingstructures. Despitethesesuccesses,theprojectalsohighlightedpersistentchallenges.Muchofthe engagementremainedintheconsultationspaceunlessdeliberateco‐designmethodswere applied.Thisreflectswiderstructuralandpracticalbarriers—suchastime,resources,and capacitygaps—thatcanlimitdeepercollaboration.Goingforward,theI‐CISKexperience underscorestheneedformoreintentionalplanningaroundparticipatorydesign,withafocus onbuildinglong‐termengagementstrategiesthatarecontext‐awareandinclusive.When participatorymethodsarethoughtfullyapplied,theyarenotjustfacilitatorsofbetterCS—they arecatalystsforsystemic,inclusive,andtransformativeclimateaction.
2 ListofFigures Figure1CSsValueChain(Source:icisk.eu)...................................................................................6 Figure2Co‐creationofuser‐centredCSs:buildingblocksoftheprocessthattakeplaceinaLL context(I‐CISK,2022)....................................................................................................................7 Figure3Typologyofparticipatorymethodswithexampleworkflows(Voinovetal.,2018).......9 Figure4ScreenshotoftheI‐CISKCSdevelopedfortheWaterManagersintheislandofCrete underamultisectoralapproachtowardssupportingthetourismsector–Wetperiodtotal volume:currentforecastandhistoryofforecasting..................................................................13 Figure5ScreenshotoftheI‐CISKCSdevelopedfortheWaterManagersintheislandofCrete underamultisectoralapproachtowardssupportingthetourismsector–Wetperiodtotal volume:currentforecastandhistoryofforecasting..................................................................14 Figure6ProblemtreeconstructedwiththeMAPmembersintheAlazani‐IoriLLinGeorgia...26 Figure7DecisionTimelineforwinemakersintheAlazani‐IoriLL..............................................27 Figure8ContributionAnalysismethodappliedintheprojectwithstakeholders.....................42 Figure9DifferentcomponentsoftheDecisionTimelinesdevelopedaspartofI‐CISK.............45 Figure10AddedvalueofusingdecisiontimelinesforLKexplorationacrossco‐creationphases .....................................................................................................................................................46 Figure11MethodologicalstepsoftheBiellaetal.(2024)papertitled“Thinkingsystemically aboutCSs:Usingarchetypestorevealmaladaptation”.Steps1to3werecarriedoutthrough iterativeconsultationoftheLLLeaders......................................................................................49 Figure12GamerulesFarmorFallow(gameinitialisedforLLinGeorgia).................................51 Figure13ScientificKnowledgeprovidedtoplayersthroughaseasonalbulleting(information‐ basedCSinGeorgianLL).............................................................................................................52 Figure14LKcardshandedouttoplayers(informationbasedonfieldworkinGeorgianLL).....53 Figure15OverviewofdifferentdegreesofengagementwithMAPmembersacrossI‐CISKLLs perphaseofco‐creationandtoachieveproductorprocess‐relatedoutcomes.......................58
3 ListofTables Table1Overviewofparticipatorymethods(Hombergetal.,2023;adaptedfromVoinovetal., 2018;IFRC,2023)........................................................................................................................10 Table2OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedacrosstheLLinCrete,Greece......................16 Table3OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedacrosstheLLinEmilia‐Romagna,Italy.........19 Table4OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheLesothoLL...........................................21 Table5OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedinRijnlandLL.................................................24 Table6OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheAlazani‐IoriLL.....................................28 Table7OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheLosPedrochesLL................................33 Table8OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheBudapestLL........................................38
4 ListofAcronyms ARPAE:RegionalagencyforPrevention,EnvironmentandEnergyofEmilia‐Romagna(Italy) CS:ClimateServices DMA:DisasterManagementAuthority(Lesotho) ECMWF:EuropeanCentreforMedium‐RangeWeatherForecasts LK:LocalKnowledge LL:LivingLab LMS:LesothoMeteorologicalServices LRCS:LesothoRedCrossSociety MAP:Multi‐actorPlatform NEA:NationalEnvironmentAgency(Georgia) SMHI:SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute UHI:UrbanHeatIsland UNDP:UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme
5 TableofContents ExecutiveSummary.......................................................................................................................1 ListofFigures................................................................................................................................2 ListofTables..................................................................................................................................3 ListofAcronyms............................................................................................................................4 TableofContents..........................................................................................................................5 1.Introduction...............................................................................................................................6 2.Backgroundonparticipatorymethods.....................................................................................8 3.Participatorymethodstosupportco‐creationacrossLLs.......................................................13 3.1LLinCrete,Greece............................................................................................................13 3.2LLEmilia‐Romagna,Italy...................................................................................................18 3.3LLinSouthernandSenquValleyregions,Lesotho...........................................................20 3.4RijnlandLL,theNetherlands.............................................................................................23 3.5Alazani‐IoriLL,Georgia......................................................................................................25 3.6LosPedrochesLL,Spain.....................................................................................................31 3.7LLinBudapest,Hungary....................................................................................................37 4.DeepdiveintoparticipatoryresearchwithI‐CISK..................................................................41 4.1Impactofco‐creationonCSusers.....................................................................................41 3.2Usingparticipatorymethodstodeveloplocalgroundwatermodel.................................42 4.3Participatorymethodstocharacteriseandevaluateadaptationstrategies....................43 4.4DecisionTimelines.............................................................................................................44 4.5DiscreteChoiceExperiment..............................................................................................46 4.6ParticipatoryModelEvaluation.........................................................................................47 4.7SeriousGamingtomakecitizensactiveplayers...............................................................50 4.7.1SeriousGame–FarmorFallow.................................................................................50 4.6.2SeriousGame–TerraformYourCity..........................................................................53 5SynthesisandReflection..........................................................................................................56 5.1Participatorymethodstofacilitateco‐creation................................................................56 5.2ParticipatorymethodstofacilitatelearningacrossLLs....................................................59 5.3Participatorymethodstosupportresearch&innovation................................................59 6Conclusion................................................................................................................................62 References...................................................................................................................................63
6 1.Introduction ClimateServices(CS)providestakeholdersresourcestocopeandadapttoclimatechange.CS aredevelopedthroughtheconcertedeffortofstakeholdersontheCSvaluechain(Figure1).The CSvaluechaincomprisesanetworkoforganisationswitheachlinkofthechainaddingvalue (Hewitt&Stone,2021).Stakeholderssituated“upstream”ontheCSvaluechain,whichincludes dataprovidersandintegratorsandtypicallyresearchinstitutionsandnational hydrometeorologicalservices,possessscientificandtechnicalcapacitiesandareresponsiblefor generatingandcuratingdatasets.Serviceprovidersandpurveyorslocatedinthemiddleprovide abrokeragefunction,convertingclimatedataintoinformationproductsthatserviceuserneeds. Finally,thefinalrecipientoftheinformation(“users”)arethestakeholderswhodeploythe informationfortheirdecision‐making.Agrowingbodyofliteraturehasunderscoredthe importanceofembeddingparticipationinCSprocesses—notmerelyasamechanismfor engagement,butasawaytoensurerelevance,usability,andlegitimacyofservicesindiverse socialandecologicalcontexts(Lemosetal.,2012;Vincentetal.,2018;Bremer&Meisch,2017). Figure1CSsValueChain(Source:icisk.eu) TheI‐CISKprojectfollowsaco‐creationprocesstoproduceCSacrossitssevenLivinglabs(LLs). Theco‐creationprocessfollowsiterativesteps(Figure2),leadingtotheco‐evolutionof knowledgeandservice(I‐CISK,2022).Eachstepintheco‐creationprocessrequiresengagement andappraisaltocontextualiseCSbettertoproducecredible,salient,andlegitimateinformation. Co‐creationwithineachLLisoperationalisedthroughaMulti‐ActorPlatform(MAP)comprising researchinstitutionsandlocalpartnersworkingincollaborationwithstakeholdersfrommultiple sectors,includingcitizens,publicauthorities,enablinginstitutionsandtheprivatesector.The MAPestablishedineachofthesevenLLshasbeendescribedinMasihetal.,(2022).Maintaining thequalityofengagementandparticipationofstakeholdersintheCSdevelopmentprocessis criticaltothesuccessoftheco‐creationprocess.Participatoryresearchmethods(participatory methods)provideanavenueforrunningprocessesthatencouragestakeholderparticipationas anoutcomeaswellasameanstoensuremeaningfulparticipation,therebystrengthening stakeholderownership,increasingtransparencyanddemocratisingtheprocess(Hareetal.,
7 2003).Theco‐creationframeworkfollowedwithinI‐CISKprojectprovidesrecommendations regardingtheuseofdifferentparticipatorymethodsacrossthestagesofco‐creation. Figure2Co‐creationofuser‐centredCSs:buildingblocksoftheprocessthattakeplaceinaLLcontext(I‐CISK,2022) ThisdeliverablecorrespondstotaskT4.3,whichfocusesontheuseofparticipatorymethodsto engageandinformend‐usersandencouragethemtobecomeactiveplayersinclimateaction. WediscusstheparticipatorymethodsusedacrosstheI‐CISKprojecttofacilitatethedifferent stagesoftheco‐creationprocess.Wealsodiscusstherelevanceofthesemethodsinsupporting researchandinnovationcarriedoutaspartoftheI‐CISKproject.Thisincludesusingparticipatory techniquestodesignandcreateawarenessaboutCS,characteriseandunderstandadaptation strategies,evaluatingtheroleofco‐creationprocessesinaffectingadoptionofCS,and understandingtheimpactofCSuse.Thedeliverableisstructuredasfollows:inchapter2,we providebackgroundonparticipatorymethodsandtheiruse;Chapter3providesanoverviewof participatorymethodsusedacrosstheI‐CISKLLs;Chapter3isadeepdiveintospecific participatoryresearch,methodsandtoolsdevelopedaspartoftheI‐CISKproject.Finally, Chapter4providesasynthesisanddiscussionofthefindings.
14 yearlydecisionsonwaterallocation,whicharetakenaroundAprilandarereassessedin September.AscreenshotoftheserviceisgiveninError!Referencesourcenotfound.. Figure5ScreenshotoftheI‐CISKCSdevelopedfortheWaterManagersintheislandofCreteunderamultisectoral approachtowardssupportingthetourismsector–Wetperiodtotalvolume:currentforecastandhistoryof forecasting. Similartotheabove,alandslidedynamicinstabilityindexwasdevelopedtosupport transportationinfrastructure,andportmanagement‐relatedwindindicatorswereproduced andintegratedattheseasonalforecastingtimescale. Further,themajorityoftheinformationabovewasalsoprovidedattheend‐of‐centuryscale throughclimateprojectionscenarios. ThecoreforthedevelopmentoftheaboveserviceshasbeentheMulti‐ActorPlatform(MAP), whichhavebeenestablishedontheislandandcomprisesstakeholdersfromkeysectors (tourism,watermanagement,transportation—portsandroadnetwork,academia),bothfrom thepublicsector(policymakers,institutions)andtheprivatesector(business,development). Co‐exploringtheneedsforinformationandserviceswasbasedonone‐to‐oneinterviewsanda structuredinterviewapproach,supportedbyfull‐MAPworkshops.Theprocedureprovided importantinsightsintothevarietyandmaturityamongMAPmembersregardingCS.The awarenessaboutCSandtheirpotentialindecisionmakingdifferssignificantly,fromveryhigh toratherlow,whichalsoaffectsthelevelatwhichspecificCSneedsarearticulated.This understandingwasused:(a)tofocuseffortswithmorediscussionsandexamplesonlessmature stakeholders,and(b)tore‐thinkandre‐plantheCSdevelopmenttime‐schedulewithtiered developmentofCScomponents(componentsreferringtomorematurestakeholderswere developedearliertobealsousedasexamplestootherMAPmembers).Thesametechniques wereusedfortheidentificationofadaptationplansandstrategies,whichsupportedforminga coherentperceptionoftheCSneedsforthetargetedLL.Itisimportanttonotethat,duetothe multi‐sectoralapproachofthedevelopedCS,themultitudeofneedswhichhavebeenidentified wouldrequiredisproportionateeffort,giventheprojectboundaries,tobedevelopedand incorporatedintotheservice.IncombinationwiththedevelopmentoftheCSmaturityofthe stakeholders,thoseneedswereprioritisedinordertorefinethecomponentsoftheCS,which weredeveloped.Althoughnotalloftheneedswerecovered,thisproceduresignificantlyraised theawarenessoftheMAPmembersofthepotentialofCSforoperationaldecisionmakingas wellaslong‐termadaptationplanning.Theco‐developmentapproachwasalsobasedonthe exchangeofknowledgewithscientificorganisationswithinI‐CISK(ECMWFgainedinsightsinto datagapsandneeds,SMHIusedtheinformationforimpactmodelling).
15 Thepre‐operationalversionoftheCShasbeenavailabletotheend‐userssinceSeptember2024, providingvaluabletimeforhands‐onexperimentingandactualtestingoftheservice.This procedure(co‐deliveringphaseofdevelopment)contributedtotheawarenessraisingofthe MAP,buildingastrongerfoundationthroughserviceapplication,butalsoprovidedvaluable inputfortheCSdevelopment.Suggestionsbytheend‐usersledtorefiningofvisualizations (identifyinformationofimportancefortheuseroravoidingmisleadingvisualizations),the inclusionofaddedinformation(e.g.waveheightinfofortheport‐service)whichhadinitiallynot beenprioritized,andtheinclusionofnewfuturesintheservice(potentialforuserinteraction withinformationgraphs)butalsohighlightedthevalueandend‐userinterestforoperational, seasonalforecast‐basedservices,whichsupporteverydayoperationanddecisionmaking aspectswhichareaffectedbyclimaticthreats.
16 Table2OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedacrosstheLLinCrete,Greece Problem investigated Phaseor phasesofco‐ creation MethodsusedPurposeofthemethods used Whowasinvolved?Howwerethefindingsintegrated? CSscurrently inuse, information gapsand needs Co‐explore climate information needsandCS desires One‐to‐one interviewsviae‐ meetingsand telephonecalls Structuredinterview approachaddressing specifictopics: criticalclimate threatsandpotential impact, opportunities,CS use,andCSneeds FullMAPworkshop Factfinding UnderstandtheCSlevelof use Increaseawarenessof stakeholdersofCS potential Identifydataneeds createacommon understandingamong MAPmembersoftheco‐ creationprocessandgoals EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. IntheWorkshopalsoIHE andSMHImembersofthe I‐CISKteamwerealso involved understandingthevariouslevelsamong MAPmembersregarding:awareness aboutexistingCS,understandingofwhata CScanofferandreadinesstospecifically expresstheirCSneeds Informrelevantprojectneeds(e.g.LL CharacterisationreportandDeliverables) Planthestructureoffuturemeetings Operational needsas wellaslong‐ term planning needs Co‐identify adaptation plansand disasterrisk reduction strategiesto besupported One‐to‐One interviewsviae‐ meetingsand telephonecalls Structuredinterview approachaddressing specifictopics: decisiontimeline exercises Factfinding IdentifyCSneedsfrom individualMAPmembers, unaffectedbyother membersoftheLL EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. Informrelevantprojectneeds(e.g. Deliverables),workdoneinthefieldsof Co‐developingofCS Planthestructureoffuturemeetings Conveyneedstoclimatedataproducers(I‐ CISKpartners)andstartplanningthenew CS
17 Problem investigated Phaseor phasesofco‐ creation MethodsusedPurposeofthemethods used Whowasinvolved?Howwerethefindingsintegrated? Climate product– newCS Co‐develop climate (impact)data and knowledge intoaclimate product One‐to‐One interviewsviae‐ meetingsand telephonecalls Decisiontimeline exercises Factfinding Processorchestration InformMAPmemberson potentialoptionsfornew climateproducts Identifythecharacteristics ofthenewCS EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. Informrelevantprojectneeds(e.g. Deliverables),workdoneinthefieldsof Co‐developingofCS Suitableindicatorshavebeenidentified ShapetheformofthenewCS Informdevelopmentteams Thedesign ofthenew CS Co‐designthe user‐centred CSproviding climate information Onetoonee‐ meetings Presentationof mock‐ups workshop Identifythedesired characteristicsoftheCS: informationsetup, visualizationaspects EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. IntheWorkshopalsoSMHI membersoftheI‐CISK teamwerealsoinvolved Evaluateprogress Informdevelopmentteams Developthenewservice Evaluationof the developed service Co‐evaluate theco‐ createdCS One‐to‐onee‐ meetings Presentationofthe service–hands‐on experience UnderstandiftheCSis meetingtheexpectationsof theMAPmembersinterms of:(a)informationprovided, (b)suitabilityforthe purpose,(c)pleasantand clearvisualresult EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. Evaluateprogress Informdevelopmentteams developtheservice Identifythevaluechain Informthebusinessplan Evaluationof theservice Co‐deliver pre‐ operational CS information system Hands‐onwiththe newlydeveloped service.Links distributionand supportfortestuseby theMAPmembers Identifyanyissuesregarding: (a)usabilityoftheservice, (b)bags,(c)refiningthefinal result EMVISI‐CISKteam, representativesofthe MAPmember organisations. Evaluateservice Refinetheservice Identifythevaluechain Informthebusinessplan
18 3.2LLEmilia‐Romagna,Italy TheEmilia‐RomagnaLLfocusesontheco‐developmentofCSs(CS)fordroughtmanagementin theSecchiaRiverBasin,specificallyintheupperpartofthebasinaroundtheCastellaranoWeir, whichprovidesservesakeyirrigationcanaldiversion.TheMultiActorPlatform(MAP), coordinatedbyGECOsistema(apartneroftheI‐CISKproject),includes; regionalauthorities(RegionalGovernmentandauthoritiesresponsibleforclimate monitoringandearlywarningsystems Irrigationconsortia(EmiliaCentraleandBurana),managingagriculturalwater distributionandoptimizingirrigationstrategiesinresponsetodroughtconditions Hydropowercompanies(Aren)thatdependonriverdischargeforoperationalplanning. Thelocalenvironmentalagency(ARPAE) Municipalities(IRETI)ensuringcompliancewithwaterregulationsandoverseeing emergencyresponseplans. academicandresearchinstitutionsfromtheprojectsupportingthescientific developmentofCSsandintegratinghydrologicalandmeteorologicalmodels. TheLLaddressesthecriticalchallengeofintegratingLKwithscientificclimateprojectionsto improvewaterresourcemanagementduringperiodsofdrought.Thisregionexperiences increasingvariabilityinprecipitationpatterns,prolongeddryspells,andcompetingdemandsfor waterresourcesacrosstheagricultural,energy,andmunicipalsectors.Stakeholdershave highlightedtheneedformorelocalizedandreliableclimateforecaststhatincorporate downscaledhydrologicaldatatailoredtospecificriversections,leveragingalsoonlocalreal‐ timeobservationsandspecificenvironmentrelevantthresholds(EnvironmentalFlow Requirements)tocomparetotheforecasts.Additionally,thereisastrongdemandforimproved visualizationandaccessibilityofclimatedatathroughuser‐friendlyinterfacesthatfacilitate decision‐making.Anotherkeyrequirementisthebetterintegrationofexistinghydrological monitoringnetworks,particularlylinkingARPAE’sobservationaldatawithCopernicusandother Europeanforecastingservices.Finally,stakeholdersrequiredecision‐supporttoolscapableof supportingwatermanagementscenariosunderdifferentupcomingdroughtconditions, enablingproactiveadaptationmeasures. ThetablebelowsummarizestheparticipatoryapproachesusedintheEmilia‐RomagnaLLto facilitatestakeholderengagementandco‐developtailoredCS. TheparticipatoryapproachesadoptedintheEmilia‐RomagnaLLfacilitatedtheexchange betweenlocalstakeholdersandProjectexperts.TheintegrationofLK,includingcurrentwater managementpracticesandoperationalthresholds,intoboththeCSandtheunderlying forecastshasstrengthenedthelocalrelevanceoftheCS.Scientificexpertisecontributedto improvingthetechnicalrobustnessoftheCS,particularlyinintegratingwithrelevantupstream serviceslikeCopernicusandlocaldatasuchasfromtheARPAEnetwork.Theiterative engagementsupportedononesidetheprogressiverefinementsoftheservice,aligningitwith stakeholderneedsanddecision‐makingprocesses,whileontheothersideincreasingtrust amongstakeholders,increasingfeasibleusabilityoftheserviceandlayingthegroundworkfor long‐termadoption.
19 Table3OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedacrosstheLLinEmilia‐Romagna,Italy Problem investigated Phaseorphasesof co‐creation MethodusedPurposeofthemethodWhowasinvolved?Howwerethefindings integrated? Understanding stakeholderneeds forCSs Co‐exploreclimate informationneeds andCSdesires Workshops& Question‐naires Identifykeyinformation gapsandLKneeds GECO+MAP stakeholders(regional authorities,irrigation consortia,hydropower companies,ARPAE) Findingsinformedtheinitial servicedesignanddata requirements Definingadaptation anddisasterrisk reductionstrategies Co‐identify adaptationplansand disasterrisk reductionstrategies tobesupported MiroBoard exercises, workshops, stakeholder consultation Definestrategicmeasures forclimateadaptationand riskreduction GECO+MAP stakeholders Shapingstructuredadaptation pathwaystosupportand informingpolicy recommendationswhileguiding CSdevelopment Incorporatinglocal dataandknowledge intoclimateforecasts Co‐developclimate (impact)dataand knowledgeintoa climateproduct Stakeholder consultation Adaptforecaststoreflect localhydrologicalconditions GECOHydrological experts,ARPAE, LocaldatawerepassedtoWP3 sothatadjustmentscanbemade todownscalingtechniquesand biascorrectionmethods Evaluatingusability andvisualizationof theCS Co‐designtheuser‐ centredCSproviding climateinformation One‐on‐one interviews,User testing Refineinterface, visualizationtools,anddata interpretation GECO+single institutionsmemberof theMAP Stakeholderfeedbackwasused toimprovegraphicaldisplaysand userinteractionoptions Testingtheinitial deploymentofthe service Co‐evaluatetheco‐ createdCS One‐on‐one interviews,User testing AssesstheusageofCSin real‐world‐ likedecision‐ makingscenarios GECO+single institutionsmemberof theMAP Userresponsesledtofurther iterationsandfeature refinementforsecondversionof theCS Identifyingpathways forlong‐term sustainability Co‐deliverpre‐ operationalCS informationsystem One‐on‐one interviews,and stakeholder consultation Explorefinancialand institutionalsustainability options GECO+institutional MAPMembers (RegionalConsortia) Exploringvalueanddrafting businessmodeloftheservice
20 3.3LLinSouthernandSenquValleyregions,Lesotho TheLLinLesotho,co‐ledbytheLesothoRedCrossSociety(LRCS)andRC510(partnertotheI‐ ICSKproject),focusesondroughtsandcoldwavesinLesotho’sSouthernandSenquValley regions,whererain‐fedagricultureandlivestockfarmingdominate.Theseareasaremost vulnerabletoclimate‐induceddisasterslikedroughts,hailstorms,snowstorms,andearlyfrost, whichseverelyaffectlivesandlivelihoods.TheLLbringstogetherLRCS,LesothoMeteorological Services(LMS),andtheDisasterManagementAuthority(DMA)toco‐createadaptivestrategies andempowercommunities. Lesotho’sincreasingclimatedisastershighlightgapsinearlywarningsystems,coordination,and user‐friendlyCSs.Prioritiesinclude: Improvedforecastaccuracyforthepredictionofdroughtsandcoldwaves. InclusionofLKinCS. AccessibleCSinformationsystemsforearlyaction. Participatorymethodsenabledtwo‐waylearning.LMSsharedtechnicalexpertiseandprovided localdata,whileLRCScontributedinsightsintocommunityneeds.Indigenousknowledge,such aslocaldroughtindicators,complementedscientificdata.Thisexchangeimprovedtrust, relevance,andusabilityofCSs. Withinthephasesofco‐creation,workshopswereconductedtodefinetherequirementsforCS basedontheprioritiesofLRCSandLMS.Theseservicesintegratedbothlocalandglobaldatato enhancepreparedness.LRCSactivelytestedandrefinedprototypesofthedroughtinformation system,ensuringusabilityandrelevance.ThedevelopmentoftheCShasbeencloselyaligned withEarlyActionProtocolsfordroughtsandcoldwaves,ensuringeffectiveearlyactionplanning andpromotinglong‐termsustainability. Throughoutthisprocess,sociallearningwithintheMAPhasplayedacrucialroleinshapingthe finalCSs.OnekeyinsightemergedfrominitialassumptionsaboutthematurityofLMS’sdrought forecastingsystem,whichishighlyadvancedandintegratesbothglobalandlocaldata.Asa result,therewasnoneedtoimprovetheforecastitself.Instead,thefocusoftheCSfordrought shiftedtoaddressingotherneeds,suchasensuringeasyconsumptionofforecastinginformation fornon‐technicalusersandfacilitatingthesharingofinformationamongstakeholders. Additionally,thematurityofadaptationstrategies,particularlyEarlyActionProtocols, influencedthedecisiononthetypesofCSsneededforthetwohazards.EngagementwithLRCS alsoreinforcedtheimportanceofimpact‐drivendecision‐making,ensuringthattheIBFsystem remainspracticalforhumanitarianresponse.Notably,ECMWFgainedvaluableinsightsfrom LMS,especiallyregardinghowlocalexpertiseandhistoricalknowledgecontributetoclimate forecastinganddecision‐makinginLesotho.Thisexchangeofknowledgehasstrengthenedthe CSs,makingthembothtechnicallysoundandoperationallyrelevant.
21 Table4OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheLesothoLL Problem investigated Phaseorphasesof co‐creation MethodusedPurposeofthemethodWhowas involved? Howwerethefindingsintegrated? Whataretheneeds oftheuserswhen monitoringand implementingthe EarlyAction Protocol? Co‐exploreclimate informationneeds andCSdesires Direct engagement withusers(e.g., one‐on‐one interviews, focusgroups, andworkshops) Togatherinsightsonspecific needs,preferences,and challengesofuserswhen implementingEarlyAction Protocolsfordroughtsand coldwaves. LRCS LMS DMA Thefindingsinformedthedevelopmentofproblem statementsanduserstories,whichservedasa foundationfordesigningtheCSs. Whatarethecurrent adaptationplansin place? Co‐identify adaptationplansand disasterrisk reductionstrategies tobesupported Deskresearch, direct engagement withusers(e.g., interviewsand consultations) Tounderstandtheexisting adaptationanddisasterrisk reductionplansandassess howCSscansupportthese efforts. LRCSBasedonthefindings,theteamdifferentiatedtheCSs needed:technicalsupportforforecastimprovementfor coldwavesandaninformationsystemfordroughtrisk management.Thesedecisionsalignedwiththematurity levelsoftheEarlyActionProtocols. Whatdatasources shouldbeusedwhen creatingCSs? Howdoesthe availabilityofdata influencethe timelineinthe decision‐making process? Howcanindigenous knowledge contributetothe developmentofCSs? Co‐developclimate (impact)dataand knowledgeintoa climateproduct Deskresearch, direct engagement withusers(e.g., consultations andknowledge‐ sharing sessions) Toevaluatedataaccuracy, identifythemostsuitable globalandlocaldatasets, andexploretheroleof indigenousknowledgein enhancingCSs. LRCS,LMSItwasestablishedthatglobaldataisvaluableforearly preparedness,asitisproducedinadvanceandwould enableLRCStoplantheiractivitiesproactively. Meanwhile,localdata,producedbyLMSandnational institutions,ismoreaccurateandformsthebasisfor actionablealerts.Thisisparticularlyimportantbecause MAPstakeholdersaremandatedtoactbasedonlocal data,asdefinedbycurrentadaptationstrategiessuchas theEarlyActionProtocol.Additionally,sincelocaldatais releasedclosertothestartoftherainyseasonand benefitsfromdownscaledforecasts,itisexpectedto providegreateraccuracy.Theseinsightsguideddata selectionandintegrationstrategiesforCSs.
22 Whataretheusers missingfromthe cold‐waveforecast? Canglobaldatasets complementlocal datasetsfortheCSs? Howdoweintegrate localdataintotheCS informationsystem? Co‐designtheuser‐ centredCSproviding climateinformation Direct engagement withusers(e.g., iterative feedback sessionsand collaborative workshops). Toidentifygapsinthe currentcold‐waveforecasts, explorethe complementarityofglobal andlocaldatasets,and defineintegrationmethods foruser‐centricCSs. LRCS LMS Forcoldwaves,findingsguidedtheforecastskill assessmentandrecommendationsonoptimalproducts. Fordroughts,insightsshapedthedesignoftheCS informationsystem,ensuringitaddresseduserneeds effectively. Howdoesthe prototypeofthe droughtCS informationsystem perform?Doesit meetuserneedsand expectations?How canitbeimprovedto enhanceusability andeffectiveness? Co‐evaluatetheco‐ createdCS Validation workshopwith users,including prototype testingand structured feedback session Toassessthefunctionality, usability,andrelevanceof theprototypefromthe users’perspective,ensuring thefinalproductmeets operationalrequirements andsupportsdecision‐ makingprocesses effectively. LRCSFeedbackfromthevalidationsessionwasanalyzedand prioritizedtorefinetheprototype.Keyinsightsinformed adjustmentstofeatures,datapresentation,andoverall designtobetteralignwithuserneedsanddecision‐ makingworkflows.Updatedversionsoftheprototype incorporatedtheserefinementsbeforemovinginto development. HowwilltheCS informationsystem fordroughtbetested andfinalized? Howwillkey stakeholdersbe engagedwiththe system? Co‐deliverpre‐ operationalCS informationsystem Usertestand demo FinalizetheImpact‐Based Forecasting(IBF)systemfor drought. LRCSLRCSwillleadadiscussionanddisseminationsessionto introducetheIBFsystemtokeystakeholders.Toensure practicalengagementandfeedback,anIBFsimulation exercisewillbeorganized,allowingstakeholderstotest thesystemandrefineitsapplicationindecision‐making.
23 3.4RijnlandLL,theNetherlands TheRijnlandLLintheNetherlandsfocusesontheimpactofhydrologicaldroughtintheRhine basinandmeteorologicaldroughtovertheRijnlandarea,whichismanagedbytheRijnland waterauthorityinthewesternpartoftheNetherlands.Thisareaismainlyaland‐reclamation area,managedasanirrigationanddrainagesystematthedownstreamendoftheRhinedelta. ThesectorsthattheCSsco‐createdintheRijnlandLLfocusonincludewatermanagement, agriculture,and(inland)navigation.TheMAPconsistsofrepresentativesofthewaterauthority ofRijnland,watertourismboatingclubs,andhorticulturalandcropgrowerorganisations,as thesearethefirstsectorstobeaffectedincaseofadrought. Currently,knowledgeanduseoflong‐termclimatechangeinformationandtheimpactof droughtsislimited,andoperationaluseofhydrometeorologicalforecastsformitigatingthe impactofanupcomingdroughtislimitedtoaforecasthorizonoftwoweeks. ThetablebelowpresentsparticipatorymethodsusedtoidentifythechallengesMAPmembers faceduringdroughts,andinformationneedstomitigatethesechallengesinupcomingdroughts andstrategiseadaptationtoclimatechangeandpotentialimpactonthefrequencyandseverity ofdroughtsinthefuture.Thesefindingshavebeenintegratedinapre‐operationalI‐CISK Rijnlanddroughtinformationapp.ThisappisdesignedwithfourCScomponents;(i)aUser‐ specificdroughtsituationcalendar,(ii)aseasonalforecastofcumulativeprecipitationdeficit, whichistheformalindicatorusedtomonitordrought,(ii)aseasonalstreamflowforecastfor theRiverRhineatLobithontheDutch/GermanBorderandtheprimaryforecastinglocation,and (iv)informationontheprojectedimpactofclimatechangeonfrequencyandmagnitudeof droughts.ThedesignoftheAppissuchthatadditionalcomponentscaneasilybeadded. TheinteractivejointMAPworkshopsalsobroughtaboutjointlearningacrosstheparticipating sectors,e.g.:theboatowners(watertourism)expressedtonowbemoreawareofthestrong impactofdroughtsontheagriculturalsector,theagriculturalsectorincreasedtheir understandingofthewaterauthoritiesdecisionprocessandvariablesandthresholdsthat informthewaterauthoritiesdroughtmitigationactions(localcumulativeprecipitationdeficit, andRhinedischargeatLobith).ThewaterauthorityandtheI‐CISKconsortiummemberslearned thatthewatertourismandagriculturehaveaninterestinseasonalleadtimes(beyond1‐month) andareespeciallyinterestedinfive‐yearclimatechangeoutlooks.Theinterestinsuchshorter‐ rangeclimateoutlookswasofparticularinterestasthecommonhorizonofpubliclyavailable climatechangeinformationintheNetherlandsistypically25to75yearsfrompresentday.
30 inGeorgiaandthe keyserviceproviders andco‐ identification Understandtheneedsanddecision‐ makingprocessofGeorgian Amelioration IntroducingthemtoI‐CISKandthe CSbeingdevelopedaspartofthe project Exploresynergiesand complementarities Exploringoptionsforsustainability oftheCS Understandingofthedecision‐making processwasusedtomaketheCSsalient. Co‐ exploration andco‐ identification DiscussionRural Development Agency,UNDP Establishingcollaborationwiththekey stakeholders. InformthedevelopmentofCStomatch theneedsofkeystakeholders. UsertestingofCS andcreating awarenessaboutits use Co‐ evaluation Participatory workshop (online) Semi‐structured interviews Collectuserfeedbackonthe performance,interpretation,and applicabilityoftheCS(seasonal streamflowforecasts)and verificationmetrics. Refinedroughtthresholds. NEA,CENN,IHE Establishingcollaborationwiththekey stakeholders. RefinementoftheCS,co‐evaluation framework,droughtthresholdsand visualizationmethods. Refinementofthenextroundsofco‐ evaluationandverificationmethods. Co‐ evaluation Participatory workshop Useseriousgametoco‐evaluatethe CS Capacitybuildingsession MAP,CENN,IHE TesttheCSwithintendedendusers ExplorethepotentialoftheCSwithend users
31 3.6LosPedrochesLL,Spain TheAndalucía‐LosPedrochesLLfocusesontheregionofLosPedroches,aprimarilyagricultural arealocatedinthenorthoftheprovinceofCórdoba,intheautonomousregionofAndalucía, Spain.ItalsoincludestheSierradeCazorla,SeguraandLasVillasNaturalParkintheupper GuadalquivirRBDasacomplementarysitefortestingtheCSdevelopedforforestlandscapes withdifferenthabitatsthantheCardeñaandMontoroNaturalPark,locatedinlosPedroches. SpainislocatedwithintheMediterraneanregion,wheredroughtsarearecurringfeature.The countryexperiencessignificantclimaticandrainfallvariability,bothseasonally—withdry,hot summersandcolder,morehumidwinters—andinterannually—withperiodicdroughtcyclesof varyingintensityandduration.ClimatechangeprocesseswillaffecttheMediterraneanregion. Predictedadverseimpactsincludemoreseveredroughts,decreaseinrunoffduetoincreased temperatureandevapotranspiration,andseasonalshiftofrainfallpatterns. Theagriculturalsectorisparticularlyvulnerabletodrought.Thisisthecaseforbothrainfedand irrigatedagriculture,sinceclimatechangeprocesseswillaffecttheavailabilityofbothblueand greenwater.However,rainfedagricultureandextensivelivestockfarminghavealimitedrange ofadaptationoptionsavailableintheshortterm.LosPedrochesisaprimarilyrainfedagricultural region,wheredifferentlandusesystemsandlandscapescoexist.Thehighecologicalandsocio‐ culturalvalueofthedehesaagroforestrysystemandtheolivardesierra(mountainolivegroves) agroecosystem,bothofwhicharepredominantinLosPedroches,andtheirvulnerabilityto climatechangeandhydroclimaticrisks,maketheregionaparticularlyrelevantsitefortheI‐CISK project. TheAndalucía‐LosPedrochesMAPiscomposedofwaterandprotectedareamanagers,research andoutreachorganizations,agriculturalandlivestockcooperatives,andcivilsociety organizations,fromtheagricultural,animalhusbandryandnaturalareamanagementsectors (Masihetal.,2022). IntheSpanishLLparticipatorymethodswere(orwillbe)usedtoco‐identifyCSneeds.Basedon theinteractionswithmembersofthemultiactorplatformandotherstakeholdersthrough interviewsandworkshops,thefollowingCSswereidentifiedtoco‐developintheframeworkof theICISKproject: CS1:Mediumtermmonthlyweatherforecasts(6monthsat250mscale) CS2:Ten‐yearclimatechangeprojections CS3:Historicalclimatedata CS4:Relationshipbetweenclimate,phenologyandplantproduction CS5:Characterizationofgroundwaterdynamics InadditiontotheaboveCS,theLLalsofocusedonimprovingunderstandingofhydro‐geological dynamicsatthelocalscale;exploretherelationshipbetweenagriculturalproductionand climateprojectionsandpredictions(seesection2.3.1)and;characterizeadaptationstrategies: Understandandcharacterizeadaptationstrategiesplacingadaptationoptionsalongacoping‐ adaptationspectrum(seesection2.3.2). Theco‐creationexperienceintheAndaluciaLosPedrochesLLhasprovenextremelyusefulasa spaceforscientificcollaborationandco‐creation,allowingforimprovedscientificapproaches andresearchdesignbyidentifyingcommonneedsamongstakeholders,basedontheexchange ofexperiencesandstrategies,andgeneratingbeneficiallong‐termrelationshipsoftrust.
32 CompleteoverviewoftheparticipatorymethodsusedwithintheSpanishLLarepresentedin Error!Referencesourcenotfound.. TheLKprovidedbysomeofthestakeholdershasbeencrucialinimprovingtheCSsdeveloped. Thankstothisintegration,theseservicesareofhigherqualityandusefulfortheLLandfor decision‐makinginamultitudeofsectors.Thishasbeenparticularlyevidentinthecaseofthe hydrogeologicalcharacterizationwhereLKandexperiencehasbeencriticalformodel developmentinacontextoflimiteddataseries.Anotherclearexampleisthecollaborationwith localcooperativesthatallowedfordevelopingpreliminaryindicatorsandcorrelationsthatwill hopefullyallowlocalcooperativestousehistoricaldataincorporatedintotheCStoproject futureexpectedproductionvolumes. OurexperienceshowsthatitisadvisabletoformalizeparticipationintheLLthrougha collaborationdocumentorprotocolandseekopportunitiesfor"secondary"benefitsforlocal stakeholders,thatisopportunitiesforcontinuingcollaborationsoutsideoftheinitialprojectthat createdtheLL.ThisisachievedbyunderstandingtheLLasaspaceofcreationandcollaboration toaddressavarietyofissues,andnotonlythosethatarethefocusoftheoriginalproject.Inthe caseoftheAndaluciaLL,membersoftheMAPareparticipatinginnewEUfundedprojects–for instancetherecentlylaunchedMonalissaprojectthatalsowillbefocusinginLosPedroches–; othershavestartedcollaboratingonthestudyofgroundwaterquality;andothershave collaboratedonthestudyofsocialimpactsofdrought‐inducedwatershortages.Furthermore, ininteractionswithparticipants,itisimportanttobeflexibleandrespecteachparticipant'stime, aswellaskeeptheminformedandofferopportunitiesforparticipationandinteraction.
33 Table7OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheLosPedrochesLL Problem investigated Phaseor phasesofco‐ creation Method used PurposeofthemethodWhowas involved? Howwerethefindingsintegrated? CSsusedandneedsCo‐exploreInterviews PresenttheI‐CISKprojectand goals. CreateandconsolidatetheMAP Understandthecasestudyregion, existing(pastandpresent)climate‐ relatedrisks,decision‐making processes,andinformationused Preliminaryidentificationof adaptationmeasuresimplemented IdentifytheCSneedstobe developedinthecontextofI‐CISK CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Contactpeople inMAPmember organizations Theresultsfromtheinterviewsservedtoinform theLLCharacterizationreportandpreparethe materialsfortheinitialworkshopandthe followingdeliverables: Deliverable1.1. Deliverable2.1 Workshop ConsolidatetheMAP,generatinga commonvisionandobjectives. Provideinformationoncurrently availableCSgeneratedbydifferent administrationsandactorsinthe region. Advanceinthecharacterizationof the5CStobedevelopedintheLL toadjustthemtotheneedsofthe agricultural,forestryandlivestock sectors. Agreeontheworkmethodology andnextstepsfortheLL. CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Representatives oftheMAP member organizations andother regional stakeholders(23 peoplefrom15 organizations) Theworkshopservedtoco‐defineneedsand expectationsspecifically:thatdataand informationexistsbutisnoteasilyaccessibleby theenduser;thatintermediaryactorsare neededto“translate”existingclimatedataand makeitaccessibleandadaptedtolocalneeds; thatI‐CISKcouldhelpinthattranslation;and thatuncertaintyinclimateinformationneedsto beclearlycommunicatedandlocaldatacanhelp reduce/informuncertainty. Theresultsfromtheworkshopwereincludedin aworkshopreportthatwassharedwithWK participants. Resultsalsoservedtoinformthefollowing deliverables: Deliverables2.2and2.3
34 Deliverable3.3 Deliverable4.1 Adaptationmeasures implementedand potentialwith improvedCS Co‐identifyWorkshop Advanceinthecharacterizationof climateadaptation(drought managementmeasures)currently implementedandpossible adaptationmeasureslinkedto improvedCS. Identificationofbarriersandlevers forimplementationofimproved adaptationoptions SeeaboveTheworkshopservedtoidentifycommon typologiesofmeasures–directedtoensure availabilityofwaterresources,manageclimate‐ inducedphenologicalchanges,ensurethe economicsustainabilityoffarmingpractices;and ensurethesustainabilityoftheresourcebase– andcommonbarrierstoimplementingimproved adaptationmeasuresinallsectors–financial restrictions,institutionalbarriers,lackof knowledgeandinformation,orinadequatescale oraccessibilityofexistingclimatedata.These findingsservedtoinformtheCSstobe developedduringtheco‐creationphase. Characterizationofthedecision‐makingspacein theAndalucía‐LosPedrochesLL–includedin Deliverable2.3 Adaptationmeasures implementedand potentialwith improvedCS Co‐identifyFocus Groups Characterizethetemporaland spatialdimensionofadaptation measures‐decisionmaking timelines. Understandthenatureof adaptationstrategiesintermsof theireffectivenessandlong‐term durability. Understandhowbarriersandlevers (institutional,economic,technical, knowledge,etc.)preventorfavor theadoptionofadaptation measuresthatreducelong‐term vulnerability. CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Technicalstaffof theOLIPEand COVAP cooperatives Olivegrowers Dehesalivestock farmers Milklivestock farmers Thefindingsforthefocusgroupswereusedto developadaptationpathwaysanddecision‐ makingtimelines.Resultshavebeenusedto inform: Deliverables2.5and2.6 Deliverable3.3 Deliverable4.2 Theoryofchange Adaptationmeasures implementedand Co‐identifyInterviews during groundwate Olivegrowers Dehesalivestock farmers Interviewswithfarmersduringeachofthefield workcampaigns–April2023;November2023, April2024November2024,andApril2025–
35 potentialwith improvedCS rmeasuring field campaigns Milklivestock farmers servedtoobtaindetailedinformationonpast andpresentadaptationmeasures,barriersfor implementation,informationneeds,andlocal informationtoinformCSs.Thisinformationwas usedtoinformeachstageoftheco‐creation processandfine‐tuneandtriangulatethe informationobtainedfromtheMAP. Co‐developclimate (impact)dataand knowledgeintoa climateproduct Co‐designCSs Co‐develop& Co‐design Online bilateral meetings with representati vesfrom eachMAP member organization UpdatemembersoftheMAPon thestatusofdevelopmentofCSs, obtainfeedbackandsuggestions, andrequestadditionalinformation Validatethelistofclimatic informationavailableintheregion andidentifypotentialnew information. Agreeonnextstepsinthe developmentoftheCS CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Representatives oftheMAP member organizations InputforthedevelopmentoftheCS Co‐develop& Co‐design Workshop Presentanddiscussprogressinthe developmentofCSfortheRegion adjustedtotheneedsofthe agricultural,forestryandlivestock sectors. Advanceintheexplorationof visualizationoptionsforthe informationgeneratedandthe associateduncertainty. Agreeonnextstepsand communicationactivities. CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Representatives oftheMAP member organizations (20peoplefrom 11 organizations) InputforthedevelopmentoftheCSandthe visualizationoptions. Validationofresults(adaptationpathways)tobe includedinDeliverable2.6 Expected(M42)contributiontodeliverable3.5 Online bilateral meetings Presentationanddetailed discussionofvisualizationof3of the5CSthathadbeendeveloped– historicalclimateinformation, climateforecasts,andagroclimatic CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Representatives oftheMAP member organizations InputforthedevelopmentoftheCSandthe visualizationoptions.
36 indicators – andalternativeoptions forvisualizationofuncertainty. Co‐develop& Co‐design Interviews during groundwate rmeasuring field campaigns ObtainLKtoinformthe developmentofCS5–hydro‐ geologicalcharacterization Olivegrowers Dehesalivestock farmers Milklivestock farmers Thisinformationwasusedtoinformthe developmentofthehydro‐geologicalmodel. Co‐evaluateco‐ createdCS Co‐evaluateOnline multilateral meetings Twoonlinemeetingswereorganizedin earlyApril2025whereallMAP memberswereinvitedtoattendto: Presentanddiscussthepre‐ operationalCS(alinktothe platformwasprovidedbeforethe meeting) Informparticipantsofscientific outputsoftheproject–papers, informationfactsheets,new researchprojects. Discusspost‐I‐CISKsustainabilityof theCS Collaborativelydecideonclosing events–publicpresentations, trainingseminars,etc. CREAFandUCM ICISKstaff Representatives oftheMAP member organizations Theresultsofthemeetingswereusedtoreview andadjustthepre‐operationalCSandco‐design andplanthefinaloutreachandcommunication activitiesandevents. Co‐deliverpre‐ operationalCS informationsystem Co‐deliverPublic seminar Training workshop (TBC) PresenttheresultsoftheICISKproject andthecollaborativeworkofthe Andalucía‐LosPedrochesLL,including post‐projectinitiativessuchasnew projectsandinitiativesresultingfrom ICISK,linkstootherongoingprojects, etc. Activitieswill takeplacein October2025 ActivitieswilltakeplaceinOctober2025
37 3.7LLinBudapest,Hungary TheCSdevelopedintheBudapestLLisdesignedtomonitorlocalheathotspotsand microclimateconditionsacrossBudapest.Itcombinesdatafromdrone‐basedthermalimaging, manualtemperaturemeasurements,andcitizensciencecontributions,integratinghigh‐ resolutionremotesensingdatawithsatelliteimagerytocreatedetailedurbanheatmaps. AdvancedAItechniques,includingconvolutionalneuralnetworksandimagesegmentation, enhancetheaccuracyofitsheatanalysismodels.Itprovideslocalised,street‐andblock‐level climate/heatinformation,whichiscrucialfortargetedurbanplanning.Thisactionabledata helpsstakeholders,suchaslocalresidents,municipalauthorities,andbusinesses,tomake informeddecisions.Theservicesupportseffortstomitigatetheurbanheatislandeffectand improvepublichealthbyidentifyingheat‐stressedareas.ItisacorecomponentoftheBudapest LLinitiative,whichaimstoincreaseurbanresilienceandsustainability.Thesystem'suser‐ friendlyinterfaceensuresthatitsdataisaccessibleandpracticalforeverydaydecision‐making, contributingtoenhancedqualityoflifeinBudapestbyreducingheat‐relatedrisksand promotingsustainableurbandevelopment. TheBudapestLLengagedwithvariousgroups(experts,NGOs,municipalrepresentatives, students,andlocalresidents)acrossseveralphasesoftheco‐creationprocesstorefineand implementitsheatmappingservice.Error!Referencesourcenotfound.providesanoverview ofparticipatorymethodsthatwereusedtofacilitateCSco‐creationwithintheLLinBudapest. Earlyconsultationsfocusedonidentifyingclimateinformationneeds,aligningwithmunicipal goals,andestablishingthegroundworkforcitizenparticipation.Astheinitiativeevolved, comprehensiveonlinesurveysandcommunityworkshopshelpedtouncoverpublicconcerns, definekeyhotspots,andshapetechnicalaspectsofdatacollection.Multiplemeasurement campaignsmobilisedstudentsandcitizenvolunteerstogatherreal‐timetemperaturedata, creatingamoredetailedviewofurbanheatdistribution.Inparallel,ongoingdiscussionswith governmentrepresentativesfacilitatedtheintegrationofUHIdataintolocalpoliciesand adaptationstrategies. TheCSdevelopedwithintheBudapestLLsignificantlyenhancesvariousgreeninitiativesand climateactionprogrammesacrossthecity.Byprovidingessentialdataandprojections,it supportscommunityengagementandbudgeting,enablingbothcitizensandcityplannersto identifythemostimpactfulareasforgreeninitiatives.Theserviceprovidesanalysistoolstoe.g. theGreenPanelprogrammetotracktheeffectivenessofupgradesandinterventions.In addition,bymakingclimateandenvironmentaldataaccessibleandunderstandable,theservice empowersresidentstoparticipateindecision‐makingprocesses,therebystrengthening communityparticipation.ThesecontributionsensurethatBudapest'sapproachtoclimate adaptationisdata‐driven,community‐focusedandalignedwithsustainabledevelopmentgoals, whichisparticularlyimportantasBudapestjoinstheEUMissiononClimateNeutralandSmart Cities,aimingforcarbonneutralityby2030. Universityoutreachsessionsprovidedadditionalopportunitiesforresearchcollaboration,tool development,andcapacity‐buildingamongyoungscholars.Finally,follow‐upworkshopshave beenplannedorconductedtoevaluatetheco‐createdCSandpresentfindingstoboth policymakersandthegeneralpublic,ensuringthatfeedbackloopsremainopen,thedatastay uptodate,andtheserviceremainsresponsivetouserneeds.
38 Table8OverviewofparticipatorymethodsusedintheBudapestLL Problem investigated Phaseor phasesofco‐ creation Method used PurposeofthemethodWhowas involved? Howwerethefindingsintegrated? Climateinformation needsandCSdesires Co‐exploreDiscussions EstablishingtheframeworkforUHI mappingservice.Engagingwith expertsandNGOstodefine objectivesandgatherinsights. Identifyingandassessingavailable urbanheatdata. Experts,NGOs, MAPmembers Helpeddefinethekeyparametersfor urbanheatmapping.Providedinsights intodataavailabilityandstakeholder needs. Adaptationplansand disasterrisk reductionstrategies tobesupported Co‐identifyDiscussion Aligningprojectgoalswithlocal governance,reviewingpastand currenturbanheatmitigation measures,andintegratingCSsinto urbanplanning. ClimateCabinet ofthe Municipality (Erzsébetváros andTerézváros municipalities) EnsuredalignmentofUHImappingwith localpolicyandadaptationplanning. Identifiedbarrierstoimplementation. Climateinformation needsandCSdesires Co‐exploreComprehens iveonline survey Gatheringdatafromresidentsand workersonexperienceswithurban heatwavesandheatislands. Refiningtheapproachforcollecting andanalyzingurbanheatdata. LocalresidentsRevealedkeyhotspotsandpublic concernsabouturbanheat,shaping datacollectionpriorities. UnderstandingCS needsanddesigning auser‐centered service Co‐explore, Co‐design Community engagement workshop Educatingresidentsabouturban heatrisksandengagingtheminco‐ creatingsolutions.Collecting feedbacktoimprovethemapping methodology. Localresidents andNGOs Provideddirectcommunityinputon urbanheatchallenges.Helpedvalidate andrefinemappingtechniques. Climate(impact) dataandknowledge intoaclimate product Co‐developDiscussion Strengtheningpartnershipsto expandcitizenscienceinitiatives. Identifyingdata,tools,andmodels requiredforeffectiveUHImapping. NGOsExpandednetworkofcitizenscientists contributingdata.Helpedintegrate community‐drivenadaptation measures. Climateinformation needsandCSdesires, Co‐developclimate Co‐exploreCitizen Science Engagingcitizensinmappingurban heatdistributioninErzsébetváros andcollectinginitialclimatedata. Studentsand experts Providedbaselinedataforidentifying high‐riskareas.Increasedcitizen involvementindatacollection.
39 (impact)dataand knowledgeintoa climateproduct measureme ntcampaign Designinguser‐ centeredCS Co‐designWorkshop Aligningobjectivesand methodologieswithstakeholdersto ensuretheeffectivenessoftheUHI mappingservice.Discussing preliminaryfindings. NGOsAllowedrefinementofdatacollection strategiesandimprovedoutreach methods. Adaptationplansand disasterrisk reductionstrategies tobesupported Co‐identifyDiscussion Presentingfindingstocityofficials anddiscussinghowurbanheatdata caninformbroaderclimate adaptationstrategies. Mayor'sOfficeEnabledpolicyintegrationofurbanheat mappingresults.Providedfeedbackon datausabilityfordecision‐making. Climate(impact) dataandknowledge intoaclimate product Co‐develop, co‐deliver Discussion Engaginguniversitystudentsin urbanheatresearchthrough presentationsanddiscussions. Studentsand experts Enhancedtechnicalaspectsofdata visualizationandanalysisthrough studentengagement Climate(impact) dataandknowledge intoaclimate product,and evaluatetheco‐ createdCS Co‐develop, co‐evaluate Citizen science Expandingdatacollectionefforts withdrone‐assistedmeasurements. Testingtoolsforpresentingurban heatdataeffectively. Studentsand experts Testedandvalidateddrone‐assisted datacollection,improvingspatial resolutionofheatmaps Deliveringpre‐ operationalCS Co‐deliverDiscussion Presentingtheprojectfindingsto policymakersandresidentsfostered effectivecross‐learning,revealing strengthsandgapsincurrentheat mitigationmeasures.Stakeholders learnedthatwhileexistinginitiatives help,integratinggreeninfrastructure andreflectivesurfacescouldfurther reduceurbanheat.Localresidents gainedpracticalinsightsintoimproving theirenvironments,andpolicymakers Localresidents and policymakers Informedrecommendationsonpolicy andbehavioraladaptationmeasures.
46 storiesandpersonas,andinformingtheco‐evaluationoftailoredinformation.Error!Reference sourcenotfound.highlightsthepotentialapplicabilityofdecision‐makingtimelinesatdifferent stagesoftheco‐creationcycletocollectLK. Figure10AddedvalueofusingdecisiontimelinesforLKexplorationacrossco‐creationphases 4.5DiscreteChoiceExperiment Participatorymethodscanbesystematicallycapturingstakeholderpreferencesfordifferent attributesofapolicy,product,orservice.WithinI‐CISK,Discretechoiceexperiments(DCEs)are usedforunderstandingthefactorsthatencourageorhindertheadoptionanduseoftheCS.In aDCE,stakeholdersarepresentedwithaseriesofhypotheticalchoices,eachinvolvingdistinct optionswithspecificfeatures(attributes).Thesefeaturesarecarefullyselectedtoensurethe choicesfeelrealisticandrelevant.Byanalyzingthedecisionsrespondentsmake,researcherscan quantifypreferencesandgaininsightsintothekeydriversandbarriersinfluencingbehaviour. AspartofI‐CISK,wedevelopedachoiceexperimenttounderstandhowboatownersinthe Netherlandsuseclimateinformationduringdroughts.Throughaseriesofiterativeworkshops withharbourrepresentativesandboatowners,wegainedinsightsintohowtheymitigatethe impactsofsummerdroughtsandthedecisionsinvolved.Wefoundthatboatowners thoughtfullychoosewheretolocatetheirboatsduringsummer,consideringkeyfactorssuchas harbourcosts,traveldistancefromhome,andwaterwayconnectionstothestanding‐mast route(thisisaninlandwaterwayroutewithmovablebridgesthatboatswithmastcanfollow withoutneedingtotakedownmasts).Bymakingthesedrought‐relateddecisionsexplicit,the processofdevelopingtheDCEencouragedstakeholderstoreflectontheirpastandfuture boatingpreferences. Oncethedesignofthesurveywasfinalised,wedisseminatedthesurveybyengagingboat ownersthroughouttheNetherlands.Wedisseminatedthesurveyby,amongstothers,visiting centralshippinglocks,whichareimportantjunctionswhereboatownersmustwaittopass.At theshippinglocks,weaskedboatownersabouttheirexperienceswithsummerdroughts,their preferences,aswellasinvitingthemtocompletetheonlinesurvey.Theseface‐to‐face
47 interactionsnotonlyhelpeddisseminatethesurveybutalsoreinforcedourunderstandingof stakeholderconcernsandperspectivesonsummerdroughts. DuringthedevelopmentanddisseminationofourDCE,weobservedvariationinstakeholder engagement,reflectingthediverseimpactsofsummerdroughtsacrosstheNetherlands.The diversityofdroughtimpactsposedchallengesindesigningrealistichypotheticalchoicesfor respondents.Toensurerelevance,wefocusedourstudyondrought‐relatedaccessibilityissues, particularlyinrelationtothestanding‐mastroute.Wealsoincludedquestionsregardingignored choicefeatures,tobeabletocapturetheheterogeneitybetweenrespondents.Thiscaninform theneedfortailoringCStospecificregionsortypesofusers.Engagingharbourrepresentatives andmanagerswaschallenging,especiallywhentheyperceivedthetopicaslessrelevant.This challengewascompoundedbytheirlimitedavailability,asouroutreachcoincidedwiththepeak season,whentheywerefocusedonpreparingharboursforsummeroperations.Similarly,boat ownerswithlittledirectexperienceofdroughtsseemedhesitanttoparticipate.Theface‐to‐face surveydisseminationatshippinglocksloweredthethresholdforengagement,encouragingboat ownerswithvaryingexposuretodroughts(todate)tosharetheirpreferencesandexperiences. Forfurtherwork,wewillanalysetheresultsofourDCEandwillsupportthefurtherdevelopment ofCSfortheDutchrecreationalboatingsector.Ourresultswillbecirculatednotonlytosurvey respondentsandboatingorganisations,butalsotothewaterauthority.OurDCEcanhighlight potentiallydiverseCSneedsofboaters,whichcansupportinclusivedecisionmakingand strengthenfuturecollaborationswiththeWaterAuthorityandtherecreationalboatingsector. 4.6ParticipatoryModelEvaluation TheroleofCSsisparticularlyevidentinagricultureanddisasterriskreduction.Farmersuse climateforecaststoadjustplantingschedules,whilewatermanagersrelyonhydrological predictionstooptimizeresourceallocation(BrunoSoaresetal.,2018;Hansenetal.,2019). Disasterresponseagenciesintegrateclimatedataintoearlywarningsystems,reducing casualtiesandeconomiclosses(Bramanetal.,2013;Wilkinsonetal.,2018).CSsalsosupport anticipatoryactioninhumanitarianoperations,shiftingfocusfromreactiveresponsesto proactiveinterventions(Clatworthy,2022a,2022b,2023a,2023b,2023c). Despitetheirbenefits,theeffectivenessofCSsisoftenevaluatedbasedonuseruptakerather thantheirlong‐termsocial,economic,andenvironmentalimpacts(Boonetal.,2022;Perrelset al.,2020).ManyCSsprioritizeshort‐termproblem‐solving,overlookingcomplexsocio‐ecological feedbacksthatshapelong‐termsystemsustainability(Boonetal.,2021).Adaptationscience increasinglyhighlightstheneedforasystemicperspective—onethataccountsforinteractions betweenhumanandecologicalsystemsandtheunintendedconsequencesofadaptation measures(DiBaldassarreetal.,2017;Biellaetal.,2024;Eriksenetal.,2015;Fedeleetal.,2019; Garciaetal.,2020;GironsLopezetal.,2017). ThetraditionalassumptionthatCSsare"no‐regret"solutionshasbeenchallenged,aspoorly designedservicescancontributetomaladaptation—actionsthatinadvertentlyincrease vulnerabilityovertime(BarnettandO’Neill,2010;Biellaetal.,2024).Inthesecases,CSsmay reinforceunsustainablepractices,delaytransformativeadaptation,ordisproportionately benefitcertaingroups,creatingnewvulnerabilities(Hallett&Hobbs,2020;Magnanetal.,2016). IntheworkcarriedoutwithinI‐CISK(seeFigure11),Biellaetal.(2024)identifythree maladaptivedynamicsintheuseofCSsacrossfiveLLs:“fixesthatfail,”“band‐aidsolutions,” and“successtothesuccessful.”Thesearchetypesillustratehowshort‐termrelianceonCSscan eithermaskunderlyingvulnerabilities,discouragesystemicchange,orexacerbatesocio‐
48 economicinequalities.Forinstance,inagriculturalsettings,relianceonseasonalforecastsmay encourageunsustainablegroundwaterextraction,worseninglong‐termdroughtrisks.Similarly, CSsdevelopedprimarilyforwell‐organizedindustries,suchastourism,maymarginalizeother stakeholderslikesmall‐scalefarmers.AkeychallengeintheimplementationofCSsisthe influenceofsectoralpowerimbalancesonadaptationdecisions. AnongoingstudyintheGreeceLLinvestigatestheinterplaybetweenpowerstructuresandthe useofCSsinwatermanagement,emphasizingthebroaderimplicationsacrossmultiplesectors, includingenergy,agriculture,transport,andtourism.Understandingthisinterplayiscriticalfor developingadaptationstrategiesthatmitigateclimatevariabilityimpactswhileensuring sustainabledevelopmentandhumanwell‐being.Thestudyaddressesacrucialgapbyanalyzing howpowerasymmetriesamongstakeholdersaffecttheeffectivenessofCS‐baseddecisions. Furthermore,itexplorestheintegratedbenefitsandrisksofCSproducts,whichareoften overlookedintraditionalapproachesthatfailtocapturethecomplexinterdependencies betweenhumanandclimatesystems.Inthiswork,theauthorsactivelyinvolveLLLeaders throughouttheconceptualmodellingprocess.Participatorymodellingemphasizescollaboration betweenresearchersandstakeholders,ensuringthatconceptualmodelsreflectreal‐world complexitiesanddecision‐makingcontexts(Mirchietal.2012;Elsawahetal.,2017). Stakeholderscanbeinvolvedintheevaluationorvalidationofthemodelduringits development,thiscaneitherbethroughtheirinput,atthefinalstage,duringonestage,or iterativelythroughoutseveralstages.IntheresearchcarriedoutwithI‐CISK,Biellaetal.(2024) resortedtoinvolvingstakeholdersthroughoutseveralstepsofthemethodology. First,theauthorsconductedcomprehensivedeskresearchoneachLL’ssocio‐ecologicalcontext toidentifypotentialmaladaptiveprocesses.Thesepreliminaryfindingswerethensharedwith LLLeadersthroughatargetedquestionnaire.Theirinsights,reflectinglocalconditionsand challenges,directlyinformedtherefinementofinitialhypotheses.Next,theresearcherscreated conceptualmodels—specificallysystemarchetypes—thatcapturedthedynamicsuncoveredby thequestionnaire.ThesemodelsweresubsequentlypresentedtoLLLeadersinaseriesof interviews,whereinparticipantsevaluatedtheiraccuracy,relevance,andcompleteness.The feedbackcollectedintheseinterviewsledtoiterativeadjustments,ensuringthemodelsaligned withon‐the‐groundrealities. ByinvitingLLLeaderstoiterativelyevaluateandrefinetheseconceptualmodels,thestudy bridgestheoreticalinquiryandstakeholderperspectives.Thiscollaborativeengagement exemplifiesparticipatorymodellingprinciples,yieldingadeeperunderstandingofCSsand maladaptationrisksthatisstronglygroundedinLKandexperience.
49 Figure11MethodologicalstepsoftheBiellaetal.(2024)papertitled“ThinkingsystemicallyaboutCSs:Using archetypestorevealmaladaptation”.Steps1to3werecarriedoutthroughiterativeconsultationoftheLLLeaders. Thesocio‐environmentalmodeldevelopedwithintheICISKproject,asdescribedbyBiellaetal. (2024),effectivelydemonstratestheimpactofCSproductsoninformedandsector‐specific decision‐makingprocessesacrossfiveinterconnectedsectors:tourism,energy,water, transport,andagriculture.Aparticipatoryapproachwasemployedinthedevelopmentofthe model,engagingsectorstakeholdersintheconceptualizationandcontextualizationofmodel componentsandparameters.Stakeholderswerealsoinvolvedinvalidatingthemodel estimationsandconfirmingmodelassumptions. Inthetourismsector,themodelillustrateshowCSproductsfacilitatetheformulationof targetedstrategiestoenhancetouristinflow.Fortheenergysector,itemphasizestheroleofCS productsinincreasingenergyavailability,therebyenablingbetteradaptationtovariableenergy demands.Inthetransportsector,themodelfocusesonimprovingroadusabilitythroughtimely maintenanceandthedevelopmentofnewinfrastructure.Regardingwaterresources,it advocatesfortheaugmentationofwaterstoragecapabilitiesandtheoptimizationofresource reallocationstrategies.Inagriculture,themodeldemonstrateshowCSproductscanenhance waterharvestingpracticestosupportincreasingfoodrequirements,thusmoderatingfood costs.Collectively,themodelelucidatesthedynamicrolesofCSproductsinpromoting advancementsacrossthesesectors.Themodelalsoincorporatesfutureclimateprojectionsto addressfluctuationsinwateravailability,whiledepictinghumanpopulationgrowthasagradual andconsistenttrend(Biellaetal.2024).
50 UsingislandofCreteLLasacasestudy,themodelwasinstrumentalininvestigatingpower asymmetrydynamics,suggestingthatpowerimbalancesamongstakeholdersinfluencesectoral adaptationefficiencies.Itwasfoundthatprimarysectorsbenefitdisproportionately, highlightingtheneedforasystems‐thinkingapproachinCSco‐designtoaccountforlong‐term interdependenciesandsocio‐environmentalpressures(Biellaetal.2024).Modelsimulations underscoredthenecessityofintegratingsystemdynamicsmodellinginCSproductdevelopment toaddresssectoralinterdependencies,mitigateunintendedtrade‐offs,andoptimizeadaptation efficienciesequitablyacrosssectors.Adaptingthesystemdynamicapproachintheearlystages ofCSproductsdevelopmentcanensurethatthebenefitsofCSproductsaredistributedmore evenly,promotingsustainableandresilientdevelopmentacrossallsectors. Preliminaryresultsindicatethatpowerimbalancessignificantlyinfluencesectoraladaptation efficienciesandtheoverallsustainabilityofthehuman‐environmentalsystem.Toensurethat CSsgenuinelysupportsustainableadaptation,ashiftisneededfromshort‐termeffectiveness metricstosystemic,long‐termimpactassessments.Thisrequiresintegratingmaladaptationrisk assessments,suchasthepathwaystomaladaptationframework(Magnanetal.,2016,Biellaet al.,2024),andfosteringinclusiveco‐creationprocessestoensureCSsaddresstheneedsofall stakeholdersequitably(Lemosetal.,2012;Perrelsetal.,2020).Theongoingstudyprovides valuableinsightsintothesystemicimpactsofpowerimbalancesandtheimportanceofinclusive andparticipatoryCSdevelopment.Keylessonslearnedincludetheimportanceofstakeholder engagementinunderstandingsectoraldynamicsandtheneedforbalancedpoweramong sectorstoavoidmaladaptation. 4.7SeriousGamingtomakecitizensactiveplayers Seriousgames,i.e.,gamesdevelopedforeducationalpurposes,havegainedtractioninrecent yearsasawaytocommunicatechallengesassociatedwiththeenvironment,resource management,andplanninginthefaceofclimatechange.Theyareeffectivestorytellingtools thatnotonlyprovidesimplifiedrepresentationsofreal‐lifesituationsandproblemsbutalso ‘gamify’themtoprovideanimmersiveexperiencethatcanleadtolearning.WithinI‐CISK,two seriousgameshavebeendeveloped,FarmorFallowandTerraformYourCity,tofacilitate participatoryengagementandresearch. 4.7.1SeriousGame–FarmorFallow WithinI‐CISK,inadditiontoexploringandunderstandingdecision‐makingprocessesandtheLK underpinningthemusingdecisiontimelines,weusedseriousgamingtounderstandhowusers ofCScombinedifferentknowledge.Wedevelopandusetheseriousgame,FarmorFallow,to understandhowCSusersutilisedifferentsourcesofinformationtomakedecisionsunder uncertainty.Morespecifically,thegameisusedtoexplorewaysCSuserscombinedifferent knowledgefordecisionmaking,whetherintegrationofLKimprovestheaccessibilityofclimate informationandifseriousgamingcanhelpusersinarticulatingthevalueaddofCS. Thegamesimulatesanagriculturallivelihood,wherebyplayerstakeontheroleoffarmersand managetheirlivelihoodsthroughvariousactivities(seeFigure12).Playersareaskedtoplayin teamsof3‐4persons.Facilitatingthegameplayingroupsencouragesdiscussionandbringsto theforeanyimplicitthoughtsandjudgementsthatplayersmayhavewhendeliberatingonthe providedinformation.Eachroundbeginswithplayersreceivingaweatherforecastbulletinthat includesscientificforecasts(seeFigure13)andLK(seeFigure14).Eachroundrepresentsanew farmingseason,withspecificpointsthroughouttheroundwhereplayersmustmakecritical decisions.Inadditiontoselectingwhichcropstoplantanddeterminingwhentoplantthem,the gamealsooffersoptionsforcopingwithadverseweatherconditions.Thegameisinitialised
51 basedoninformationfromtheLL.Forexample,ifthegameistobeplayedintheGeorgianLL, thenthedecisiontimelinesco‐developedwithstakeholdersintheLLandtheirLKandtheCSco‐ createdwiththeMAPareusedasinputstotheplaytomakeitasrealisticaspossible.Inaddition totheactualgameplay,apre‐andpost‐surveyisdeveloped,rapporteursareinstitutedtorecord discussionsduringgameplay,andadebriefingsessionisconductedattheendofthegameto collectdata. Figure12GamerulesFarmorFallow(gameinitialisedforLLinGeorgia)
52 Figure13ScientificKnowledgeprovidedtoplayersthroughaseasonalbulleting(information‐basedCSinGeorgianLL)
53 Figure14LKcardshandedouttoplayers(informationbasedonfieldworkinGeorgianLL) OneofthekeylearningoutcomesofthegameistohelpparticipantsunderstandhowCSandLK cancomplementeachother,ultimatelyimprovingtheaccessibilityandusabilityofclimate information.PlayersassessthevalueofincorporatingLKintoCSandexplorewhetherit enhancestheirabilitytointerpretandapplyweatherforecastseffectively.Throughinteractive gameplay,theyalsogaininsightsintothestrengthsandlimitationsofdifferentclimate informationsources,enablingthemtoevaluatetheirreliabilityandrelevanceinreal‐world farmingcontextscritically.Additionally,FarmorFallowencouragesplayerstoarticulatethe valueofCSsinenhancingresiliencetoclimatevariability.PlayersreflectonhowCScontributes toriskmanagementandadaptivestrategiesbyengagingindiscussionsduringandafter gameplay.Thepost‐gamedebriefingsessionallowedparticipantstoconsolidatetheirlearning, sharetheirexperiences,anddiscusshowtheinsightsgainedfromthegamecanbeappliedto theirfarmingpractices. 4.6.2SeriousGame–TerraformYourCity TerraformYourCityisaseriousboardgamesetinanear‐futureurbanenvironmentfacingthe escalatingchallengesofclimatechange.Playerstakeontheroleofurbanvisionaries‐city planners,policyadvisorsorcivicleaders‐workingtogethertoprotectacityontheedge.The gamecombinesstrategicplanning,resourcemanagementandinteractivestorytelling,usinga3‐ cardsystemasitscoremechanic: Actioncardsrepresentcity‐scaleadaptationandmitigationprojects(e.g.greenroof initiatives,publicawarenesscampaigns,reflectivepavementinstallations). Eventcardsintroduceunpredictable,oftenhumoroustwists,suchasunexpectedheat waves,orbudgetcutsrepresentingreal‐worlduncertaintyandthecascading consequencesofpoorplanning.
54 Cascadecardsplayacriticalroleinsimulatingthechainreactionsandcompounding effectsofclimate‐relatedurbanchallenges.Thesecardsrepresenteventsthatarenot isolated,buttriggeredbypreviousin‐gameconditionsorplayerdecisions‐oftenasa resultofneglectedissues,systemicweaknesses,orfailuretoactearly.Forexample:An unaddressedheatcrisiscanleadtomassmovingout(UnaddressedHeatCrisis→Mass outmigration).Lackoftreescantriggerduststorms,worseningairquality(LackofTrees →DustStorms).Spreadingmisinformaoncanleadtopublicdistrust,erodingsupport forgreenpolicies(FakeNews→PublicDistrust).Unlikestandardeventcards,cascade cardsoftenappearafteraseriesofnegativeconditionsaccumulate,reflectinghow urbansystemsareinterconnectedandvulnerabletospirallingdisruptions. Boththephysicalanddigitalversionsofthegamefeatureanaloguedashboardsthattrackthree keyresources:1.Money(budgetimpact),2.Publicapproval,3.Thermaldebt(urbanheat pressure).Eachcardaffectstheseindicators,promptingplayerstoweighthecost‐benefitratio oftheirdecisionswithinadynamicallychangingurbansystem.Dicerollsintroduceadditional variability,influencingtheseverityofeventsortriggeringcascadingeffectsthatreflectthe interdependenceofclimate‐relatedurbanstressors. TheprimaryeducationalobjectivesofTerraformYourCityareto: Promotesystemsthinkinginthecontextofurbanclimateadaptation. Raiseawarenessofthetrade‐offsanddilemmasofsustainablepolicymaking. Introduceplayerstodifferentplanningstrategies'social,environmentalandfinancial impacts.
55 Encourageplayerstoexperiencethecomplexityofreal‐worldurbangovernanceunder environmentalstress. Bysimulatingdecision‐makingunderpressure,thegameprovidesahands‐onlearning environmentwhereplayerscanexplorehowintegratedurbanpoliciesinteract,succeedorfail inthefaceofclimatechange.Thegameisdesignedfor: Universitystudentsfromurbanplanning,sustainability,publicadministrationor environmentalstudies. Policymakersandmunicipalstaffinvolvedinresilienceplanning. Climateeducatorsandtrainerslookingforengagingtoolsforpublicoutreach. Gamifiedlearningsettings,suchascitizenscienceprogrammesorco‐creation workshopsinLLs. Amulti‐layeredassessmentstrategyhasbeenintegratedintothedevelopmentand disseminationprocesstoensurethatTerraformYourCityfunctionseffectivelyasanexperiential learningtool.Beforethegame'spublicrelease,apilottestingphasewillbeconductedwitha groupofyoungvolunteers,duringwhichstructureddebriefingsessionswillhelpgather reflectivefeedback.Participantswillbeencouragedtoanswerkeyquestionssuchas:What trade‐offsdidyouencounter?Whichstrategywasmosteffective?Howdoesthegamereflect real‐worldcityplanningchallenges?Theseinsightswillguideboththerefinementofthegame mechanicsandtheeducationalframingofthecontent.Simultaneously,thegame'spublic releasewillbeaccompaniedbypost‐gamesurveysdesignedtoassessknowledgeacquisition andshiftsinperception.Thesesurveyswillevaluateparticipants'understandingofcoreurban climateconcepts(e.g.,urbanheatisland,greeninfrastructure),theirgraspofkeyclimatedata, theirawarenessoftrade‐offsinherentinclimategovernance,andtheirperceptionofCSsand theirroleinurbanresilience.Inthedigitalversionofthegame,gameplayanalyticswillalsobe employedtoexaminedecision‐makingpatternsandplayerbehaviour,includingindicatorsof risktolerance,cooperation,andstrategicadaptability.Thiscombinationofreflectivediscussion, structuredevaluation,andbehaviouraldataaimstoofferacomprehensiveviewofhowthe gamesupportslearning,engagement,andthedevelopmentofsystemsthinkingaroundurban climatechallenges.Thegamewillbeavailableinbothdigitalandphysicalformats.
62 6Conclusion TheI‐ICISKprojectusesparticipatorymethodstoengageandinformend‐users,encouraging themtobecomeactiveplayersinclimateaction.Participatorymethodswere,therefore,applied acrossLLstofacilitatetheco‐creationprocessandsupportuser‐centredresearchandinnovation acrosstheI‐CISKproject Wefindthatparticipatorymethodsarenotmerelysupportivetoolsbutarecentraltotheco‐ creation,learning,andinnovationprocessesessentialfordevelopinginclusiveandactionable CSs(CS).Thesemethods,whenappliedacrossdifferentphasesofco‐creation,enablethe generationofbothproduct‐relatedandprocess‐relatedoutcomes,enhancingthesalience, credibility,andlegitimacyofCS.Importantly,outcomessuchascapacitybuilding,informing policy,andimprovingsustainabilityfurtherunderscorethemultifacetedvalueofstakeholder engagement.Theparticipatoryapproachesadoptedalsoplayedacriticalroleinfosteringsocial learningandbuildinglong‐termcollaborations.Byfacilitatingreflection,dialogue,andjoint problem‐solvingamongdiverseactors,thesemethodshelpedshiftusersfrompassiverecipients ofclimatedatatoactivecontributorsinknowledgeproduction.ExamplesfromI‐CISKLLsshow thathowdifferentparticipatorytools(likedecisiontimelines,seriousgaming)catalysemutual understanding,trust‐building,andco‐productionofknowledgethatiscontextuallygrounded andrelevantThroughtheseprocesses,participatoryengagementgoesbeyonddeliveringmore usableCS—itbecomesamechanismforstrengtheninglocalagency,embeddingclimatethinking intowidergovernancesystems,andsupportingclimateaction. Despitethepowerofparticipatoryengagement,wealsorecognisethatrunningsuchprocesses canberesource‐intensiveandrequireexperienceandcapacitytodoitsuccessfully.WithinI‐ CISK,wefindthatmuchoftheengagementsitswithintheconsultationordiscussionspace unlessaco‐designsessionhasbeenintentionallyintroduced(likedecisiontimelinesoruser testingworkshops).Wethereforerecommendmoreintentionaldiscussionofdifferent participatorymethodologiestoensureamoredeliberatedesignandcommitmenttoinclusive andmeaningfulengagement.Lastly,purposefulconsiderationanduseofparticipatorymethods mustbeembeddedacrossthedifferentphasesofco‐creationinordertoencouragesustainable uptakeofCS.
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