Dave Rejeski - Quantum Computing: Another Trip up the Hype Curve? [ETAC6 presentation]

David Rejeski Visiting Scholar! Environmental Law Institute! Washington, DC! Associate Researcher! Weizenbaum Institute! Berlin, Germany Quantum Computing Strategies for An Over Hyped World •If practical quantum computers emerge, exactly what could they accomplish for the planet that existing supercomputers, or other competing technologies (even outside of the IT sector), could not accomplish?! •Can quantum computing provide these solutions in a timely and equitable fashion, overcoming multiple scaling challenges to address near-term and time-urgent environmental problems?! •Could quantum computing exacerbate existing energy and resource use and associated environmental damages? ! •What policies might be put in place to advance the technology, its positive environmental impacts, and its global access? Practical Questions for Technology Assessment Rejeski, D. 2022. “An Environmentalist’s Guide to Quantum Computing.” https://drive.google.com/file/d/ 19kBbi3kVQEZdd0DvIY0ZAuRQS0MLJxHV/view Too Good to Be True? 2012 2018 5-10 Years Emergence of real use cases Das Sarma, S. 2022. “Quantum Computing Has a Hype Problem,” MIT Technology Review, March 28. “Academic scientists, medical researchers and technological entrepreneurs are taught to avoid extravagant claims and to rely instead on sober peer review. Yet they are also aware that hype can help win research grants and capital funding and can affect share prices.” Ed Tenner Tenner, E. 2007. “A Place for Hype,” London Review of Books, May 10. Vol. 29, No. 9. “I’m disturbed by some of the quantum computing hype I see these days, particularly when it comes to claims about how it will be commercialized…quantum-computing hype has apparently convinced people that these systems already exist or are just around the corner.” Sankar Das Sarma, University of Maryland Up, and Down, the Hype Curve Quantum Computing: Another Over-Hyped Technology? 1. Generative AI! 2. General Artificial Intelligence! 3. AI in general! 4. AI PC’s! 5. Next Gen Everything and Anything! 6. Quantum Computing 7. Fusion Power! 8. Avatars! 9. Metaverse and Spatial Computing! 10. Humanoid Robots Pratt, M.K. 2024. The Ten Most Over-hyped Technologies in IT, CIO, July 15. https://www.cio.com/article/405106/the-6-most-overhyped-technologies-in-it.html AI Quantum Computing Hype Shadow Comparative Hype The ‘Arms Race’ Loss of market advantage! National security concerns Positive Hype Address climate change! Medical breakthroughs Negative Hype Existential risks to humanity! Energy/Water Use! Hype Taxonomy 2025 June, 2023 Time Amplitude Positive Impacts Negative Impacts Hype Scenario Space AI Driven Human Extinction 20 10 Quantum Computing Cracks Encryption Y2Q AI Replaces Radiologists Carbon-neutral Fertilizers AI safety researcher warns there's a 99.999999% probability AI will end humanity Boomers Doomers Logistics Optimization Improved Climate Modeling The United Nations Proclaims 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology Quantum science and technology is poised to help address the world’s most pressing challenges — including the need to rapidly develop renewable energy, improve human health, and create global solutions in support of the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals. …the quantum train is leaving the station…! Quantum computing is not just a tool—it is a national capability. Countries that lead will attract the talent, secure the data, and define how this new technology is regulated, protected, and deployed.! 2025 just as everyone starts to wrap their heads around AI, Quantum Computing is on the horizon, threatening to rewrite the entire playbook of technological progress. Up the Hype Curve Again? Proof of Concepts Commercial Applications Large, fault-tolerant Quantum Computer 5 10 20 Years Analog Simulators Digital NISQ Computers More qubits better fidelity ID compelling NISQ applications Improve qubit quality Scale qubits maintain fidelity 1. Develop/Update A Realistic Timeline for Quantum DARPA’s Utility Scale Challenge: Quantums’s computational value exceeds the cost to build and operate it by 2033 Quantum Supremacy Test: computational tasks are executed exponentially faster on a quantum processor than on a classical processor https://www.networkdee.org! https://ndeercn.org/directory/ Thanks! Contact: dave.r[email protected]! r[email protected]g