From classrooms to communities: modeling the impact of school-based interventions for future pandemic response

Fromclassroomstocommunities:modeling theimpactofschool-basedinterventions forfuturepandemicresponse Individual-based multi-scale model TeslyaA1,FangZ2,AtamerBalkanB2,DeKorneC1,DeWinterM3,Vermeulen LC3,TenBoschQ2,Bruijning-VerhagenP1,RozhnovaG1* 1University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands 2 Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands 3 National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands Next steps Background and objectives •During respiratory pandemics, schools are critical: while their high-contact environments can amplify community transmission, they remain essential for children’s learning and wellbeing. •As part of pandemic preparedness for emerging respiratory pathogens, the RE-PASS project develops a novel multi-scale modeling framework to inform the school-based interventions by evaluating trade-offs between infection control and learning loss by capturing the impact of epidemic spread and mitigation strategies. *Corresponding author email [email protected] and affiliation: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands This work is funded by ZonMw grant Nr 10710062310007 Expected results •Calibration of the model using empirical SARS-CoV-2 data at the initial stages of the outbreak in the Netherlands •Formalization of learning loss quantification due to absenteeism, accounting for relevant factors such as socioeconomic status •Multi-criteria analyses of trade-off between epidemic control and learning loses Methods Ventilation Face masks Physical distancing Physical distancing Staggered attendance Staggered attendance Full school closure Screening Quarantine or isolation of symptomatic students •Adaptable model which can simulate outbreaks across different respiratory pathogens •High-resolution while computationally efficient due to use of functional forms for transmission dynamics •Analysis of the contribution of schools, households and other community setting to the epidemic dynamics •Assessment of the impact of school interventions on epidemic burden and learning outcomes while accounting for withinand between-classroom contact network, as well as the connections between schools and community spaces School-community network School Classroom A - Households C - Community Spaces B - Schools Output Distribution of inhaled pathogen dose stratified by age, room dimensions, number of students. number of teachers, learning block parameters Output Distribution of inhaled pathogen dose stratified by age, school type, school stream, school size •The modeling framework simulates transmission across three interconnected scales: (1) fine-resolution within-classroom dynamics, capturing daily movement and interaction patterns of students and teachers; (2) within-school transmission, mediated by shared staff and cross-group connections; and (3) a school-community network linking households, schools, and the community. •Outputs: Epidemiological state of all individual agents is tracked on a daily basis, including a time-dependent virus shedding profile. For students learning losses are being tracked.