Deliverable 5.8 - Intermediary Monitoring Report

Intermediary Monitoring Report Deliverable 5.8 Accelerating and upscaling transformational adaptation in Europe: demonstration of water-related innovation packages This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon H2020 innovation action programme under grant agreement 101036683. Ref. Ares(2025)5438478 - 07/07/2025 2 Deliverable Number and Name D5.8 – Intermediary Monitoring Report Work Package WP5 – Accelerating demonstrators’ transformational adaptation Dissemination Level Public Author(s) Egaleo: Stelios Karozis, Dimitris Tzempelikos; Galicia: Amaya Soto, Lucia Fraga, Andrea Ogando Vidal, Carlos Rodriguez, Jose Guitian Bermejo, Silvia Torres, Silvia Piedracoba, Ignacio Gonzalez Lappeenranta: Sanna Varis, Liuliu Du-Ikonen, Mariiag Zhaurova, Risto Soukka, Mika Luoranen, Tuomas Sihvonen, Satu-Pia Reinikainen; Oristano: Manuela Puddu, Francesca Etzi; West Country Region: Giles Rickard, Nicola Rogers, Zoe Smith. Primary Contact and Email Jan Cools, [email protected] Hnátková Tereza, hnatkova[email protected]u.cz Date Due 30 November 2023 Date Submitted 28 November 2023 (version 1) 2 July 2025 (version 2) File Name TransformAr-WP5-D5.8-IntermediaryMonitoringReport-v1-27-112023 Status Version 1 Version 2 (after addressing from comments of external reviewers) Reviewed by (if applicable) Jan Cools, Václav Hradilek, Tereza Hnátková, Marc Bonazountas, Laura Enthoven, Amalie Bjornavold Suggested citation Karozis, S, Tzempelikos, D., Soto, A., Fraga, L., Ogando Vidal, A., Rodriguez, C., Guitian Bermejo, J., Torres, S., Piedracoba, S., Gonzalez, I., Varis, S., Du-Ikonen, L., Zhaurova, M., Soukka, R., Luoranen, M., Sihvonen, T., Reinikainen, S-P., Puddu, M., Etzi, F., Rickard, G., Rogers, N., Smith, Z. (2023) Intermediary Monitoring Report. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8, H2020 grant no. 101036683 © TransformAr Consortium, 2021 This deliverable contains original unpublished work except when indicated otherwise. Acknowledgement of previously published material and of the work of others has been made through appropriate citation, quotation, or both. Reproduction is authorised if the source is acknowledged. This document has been prepared in the framework of the European project TransformAr. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 innovation action programme under grant agreement no. 101036683. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the European Union. Neither the EASME nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 3 LIST OF ACRONYMS AP Action Plan AWAR Awareness-raising modules BNG Biodiversity Net Gain CAF/CAE Citizen app CEI Choice experiment CCA Climate change adaptation CC Climate Change CCISC Climate Change Impacts Study Committee CETMAR Technological Centre of the Sea CIH Climate innovation hub CIL Community Infrastructure Levy COAST Coastal Contract CoM Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy COTS Commercial off-the-shelf CS Citizen scientists DEFRA UK Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs DSI Demand analysis for social services and infrastructures EEA European Environment Agency ELMS Environmental Land Management Scheme ERDF European Regional Development Fund ESNACC Elements for a National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change EU European Union GA Grant Agreement GIS Geographic Information Systems GHG Greenhouse gases HAB Harmful Algal Bloom ICW Integrated Constructed Wetlands INTERM Intertidal Monitoring IoT Internet of Things IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISPRA Institute for Environmental Protection and Research KCS Key community system 4 KPI Key performance indicator LWO Local Wetland Observatory MASE Ministry for the Environment and Energy Security MOE Municipality of Egaleo MoEE Greek Ministry of Environment and Energy MRM Mussel Raft Monitoring MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification NAP National adaptation plan NAS National Adaptation Strategy NBS Nature-based Solution NCM Natural Capital Marketplace NCCAC National Climate Change Adaptation Committee NCSRD National Centre For Scientific Research Demokritos NN Nutrient Neutrality OECC Spanish Climate Change Office PNACC Spanish National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change RAAP Regional Adaptation Action Plans RASCC Regional Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change RI Resilience Index SAC Special Area of Conservation SCS Smart Climate Stations STH Stakeholders SuDS Sustainable Drainage System SWM Storm water modular system SWMM Storm water monitoring TRL Technology Readiness Level URB Urban run-off system UVIGO University of Vigo WRT Westcountry Rivers Trust 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................. 7 1.0 MUNICIPALITY OF EGALEO – ECOSYSTEM OF SOLUTIONS ................ 9 1.1.CONTEXT .......................................................................................... 9 Infographic ...................................................................................... 9 Geographical description .................................................................. 10 Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges ...................................... 10 Sectors (KCS) impacted ................................................................... 11 Legislative background .................................................................... 11 Adaptation governance at the national level ........................................................................................ 11 Relevant national Greek policies ........................................................................................................... 12 Adaptation governance at the regional level ........................................................................................ 12 Adaptation governance at the local level ............................................................................................. 12 1.2. DESCRIPTION OF SOLUTIONS IN TRANSFORMAR ................................. 13 Description of the solutions .............................................................. 13 Description the expected innovation .................................................. 15 1.3. EXPECTED IMPACTS ........................................................................ 16 Overview of the expected impacts ..................................................... 16 Dominant Indicators ........................................................................ 17 Baseline data ................................................................................. 17 Approach to monitor impacts ............................................................ 17 Availability and access of monitored data ............................................ 17 1.4. WORK IN THE UPCOMING MONTHS .................................................... 18 1.5. ANNEX – KPI USED BY MOE PER SOLUTION ........................................ 19 2.0. GALICIA – MRM/IR/INTERM ........................................................ 1 2.1. CONTEXT ...................................................................................... 2 Infographic ...................................................................................... 2 Background & objectives .................................................................... 3 Objectives ....................................................................................... 3 Geographical description .................................................................... 4 Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges ....................................... 5 Legislative background ................................................................ 7 Adaptation Governance at the National Level ...................................................................................... 7 Relevant National Spanish Policies ........................................................................................................ 7 Adaptation Governance at the Regional Level ...................................................................................... 7 Adaptation Governance at the Local Level............................................................................................ 8 Measuring Risks and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change ...................................................................... 8 Monitoring implementation .................................................................................................................. 8 6 Building capacity and disseminating knowledge .................................................................................. 8 2.2. DESCRIPTION OF SOLUTIONS IN TRANSFORMAR ................................ 9 Resilience Index (RI) ......................................................................... 9 Intertidal Monitoring – INTERM ......................................................... 11 Mussel Raft Monitoring - MRM ........................................................... 13 Expected Innovations ...................................................................... 15 RESILIENCE INDEX (RI) ......................................................................................................................... 15 INTERTIDAL MONITORING - INTERM.................................................................................................. 16 MUSSEL RAFT MONITORING - MRM ................................................................................................... 17 2.3. EXPECTED IMPACTS ...................................................................... 18 Overview of the expected impacts ..................................................... 18 Project impact indicators, approach of monitoring ................................ 18 Baseline data ................................................................................. 25 Availability and access of monitored data ............................................ 26 2.4. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................. 27 2.5. REFERENCES ............................................................................... 28 3.0. LAPPEENRANTA – DEVELOPING STORMWATER MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ............................................................................ 30 3.1. CONTEXT ....................................................................................... 31 Infographic .................................................................................... 31 Objectives ..................................................................................... 31 Geographical description .................................................................. 32 Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges ...................................... 33 State-of-the-art on adaptation in the demonstrator .............................. 35 3.2. DESCRIPTION OF SOLUTIONS IN TRANSFORMAR .............................. 38 URB (NBS) .................................................................................... 38 SWMM (digital solution) ................................................................... 40 CAF (Citizen app) ........................................................................... 42 CEI (Choice experiment) .................................................................. 43 Description of the expected innovations.............................................. 44 3.3.EXPECTED IMPACTS ......................................................................... 45 Overview of the expected impacts ..................................................... 45 Selected indicators .......................................................................... 45 Baseline data ................................................................................. 49 Approach to monitor impacts ............................................................ 51 Availability and access of monitored data ............................................ 53 Upscaling and acceleration of the solutions ......................................... 53 3.4. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................. 54 4.0. ORISTANO – COAST AND SMART GATE ......................................... 55 4.1. CONTEXT ....................................................................................... 57 Infographic .................................................................................... 57 Objectives ..................................................................................... 57 Geographical description .................................................................. 58 7 Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges ...................................... 61 State-of-the-art on adaptation in the demonstrator .............................. 63 4.2. DESCRIPTION OF SOLUTIONS IN TRANSFORMAR ................................. 66 The Coastal Contract ....................................................................... 66 The Smart Gate and Nature-Based Solution ........................................ 67 Description the expected innovation .................................................. 76 4.3. EXPECTED IMPACTS ...................................................................... 76 Overview of the expected impacts and related indicators ....................... 76 Approach to monitor impacts ............................................................ 87 Availability and access of monitored data ............................................ 88 4.4. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................. 88 4.5. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................ 89 5.0 WESTCOUNTRY REGION: IMPROVING THE AGRICULTURAL-RIPARIAN INTERFACE IN NUTRIENT SENSITIVE CATCHMENTS IN SOUTH WEST ENGLAND .................................................................................. 91 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................ 91 5.1. CONTEXT .................................................................................... 92 Infographic .................................................................................... 92 Objectives ..................................................................................... 92 Geography of the Westcountry .......................................................... 93 Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges ...................................... 94 Adaptation within the demonstrator ................................................... 98 5.2. DESCRIPTION OF SOLUTIONS IN TRANSFORMAR .............................. 99 Overview of the solutions ................................................................. 99 Description of the expected innovation ..............................................102 5.3. EXPECTED IMPACTS .....................................................................109 Overview of the expected impacts ....................................................109 Selected indicators .........................................................................113 Baseline data ................................................................................115 Approach to monitor impacts ...........................................................117 Availability and access of monitored data ...........................................117 5.4. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................118 5.5. REFERENCES ..............................................................................118 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The main goal of this report (D5.8. Intermediary Monitoring Report) is to provide a comprehensive overview of the solutions implemented in TransformAr demonstrators, and in particular highlighting the approaches to assess their effectiveness on region-specific climate change impacts based on data and metrics proposed. 8 Each section of the report is dedicated to a specific demonstrator, providing details on its context, innovative solutions implemented, and expected impacts. To assess and quantify these foreseen impacts by the end of the TransformAr project, the respective demonstrators have identified relevant indicators. In addition, the report includes information on existing baseline data and the approach that will be taken for monitoring impact until the end of the project and beyond. This work presented in D5.8. consists of monitoring advances in WP4: ‘Actionable adaptive solutions implementation’ for each category of solutions, and nature-based and technological and digital solutions in particular. The aim of this monitoring process is to track the environmental impact of tested solutions, and to recognise overall effectiveness of the application for transformational adaptation in the specific context of each demonstrator. In this report, we present the progress of the Municipality of Egaleo (Greece), Galicia (Spain), Lappeenranta (Finland), Oristano (Italy) and the Westcountry Region (UK). Required data from demonstration localities are provided by each demonstrator and gathered for detailed analysis. The analyses are focused on parameters monitored and on significant parameters chosen based on literature and previous existing data. A final monitoring report will be delivered at the end of the project at M48. 9 1.0 Municipality of Egaleo – Ecosystem of solutions Executive summary The Municipality of Egaleo (MOE) will install smart climate stations (SCS) at key municipal buildings to acquire a view of the microclimatic conditions. A citizen’s app (CAE) will allow inhabitants to participate in the debate around Climate Change (CC), the changes of the microclimate and potential solutions. Awareness-raising modules (AWAR) will be designed, especially for young people and school pupils to promote climate awareness. In addition, a climate innovation hub (CIH) will be installed to promote green and climate friendly entrepreneurship. A demand analysis for social services and infrastructures (DSI) will be conducted. The ecosystem is depicted in Figure 1. 1.1.Context Infographic Figure 1: Ecosystem of MOE’s solution in TransformAr project DATA ANALYSIS ACT SCS CAE DSI CAE AWAR CIH MOE supported by NCRSD SCS - Smart Climate Stations | CAE - Citizen App | AWAR - Awareness-raising | CIH - Climate Innovation Hub DSI - Social services/infrastructures 16 Figure 1) ) can be followed with different component and under the same scope. 1.3. Expected impacts Overview of the expected impacts The expected impacts per solution can be found in Table 3. The impacts are either direct, thus, they deriving directly from the solution, or indirect, thus, they support the impacts of other solutions or long-term actions beyond TransformAr lifetime and scope. Table 3: Description of expected impacts per solution Solutio n Expected impact SCS (a) The data will provide a detailed dataset for weather and environmental conditions at MOE that will be visualized in Citizen Application Engagement (CAE) solution and disseminate part of the result to the citizens of MOE towards climate awareness in a large (municipality) level. (b) The data will be used by the NCSRD (technical partner of MOE) to support the climate and environmental research of the organization and provide back to MOE a localized and high-resolution weather forecast of 120 hours for the area of MOE. The forecast data will be used directly as an alarm system to inform the relevant Municipality Departments (Civil Protection, Municipal Police) and other First-Responders when abnormal temperature levels or precipitation levels are noted, helping to prevent casualties and loss of musicality social services. (c) Beyond the MOE TransformAr solution, the SCS data collection will be used to monitor the effectiveness of different actions and measures implemented in MOE by comparison the measurement and relevant indicators before and after the implementation, thus, helping in quantify policy suggestion and making. DSI Forecasting the changes of demand for social services due to climate change, will enable the MOE to plan how the supply of social services will be maintain by meeting the demand and adapt on the new climate conditions and extreme events, such as more intense and frequent heatwaves. CAE As CAE provides a two-way channel of communication between MOE and citizens, it is expected to impact not only the citizen understanding of climate change, but also to provide a way to MOE to monitoring the impact of other TransformAr solution either directly (questionnaires with direct reference to specific solutions) or indirectly (overall quantification of climate awareness). AWAR AWAR is expected to impacted the climate change understanding of young people and try to clear misconceptions of what is climate change, what are the impacts, how it can be tackled etc. As such, it is aspired to create a more climate awared generation that pursuit for mitigation and adaptation through the municipality scale and/or social transformation. 17 CIH CIH consist of (i) a static climate exhibition that is expected present the climate actions of MOE to the public; (ii) a dynamic part of livestreaming and visualization of the different types of data that are gathered and processed at MOE and both it is expected to impact people visiting the exhibition by raising the climate awareness. In addition, the availability of the dataset to SMEs, groups and teams via events (e.g. datathons) is expected to promote innovation and solutions for climate related problems that MOE has or will have in the future. Dominant Indicators For quantify the expected impacts of the TransformAr solutions in MOE, a series of Key Performance indicators (KPI) were selected and can be found in 1.5. ANNEX – KPI used by MOE per solution. The data to assess the KPIs will be based on information gathered via the data source solution (SCS, CAE, DSI) and data available to MOE via open databases national or international. As it was mentioned, the main scope of MOE solutions in to raise awareness to citizens and informed how to react in a rare climate driven even, thus, enhance behavioral change. Indicators that will measure the direct impacts of the solutions are: • the analysis of questionnaires from CAE, • the virtual visitors of CAE, • the visitors of CIH exhibition, • the number of participants in various events of AWAR and CIH At the same time, the data collected can support the policy actions of MOE by evidence-informed decisions at the local level. As such, the impact KPIs can indirectly be assessed in long-term and they are mainly based on how the status of living and health and social indicators are changing. Baseline data The data to assess the direct impacts of MOE’s solutions are coming from collections of data of measures people that attended events or the post-processing of the questionnaires. In order to see the effectiveness, a first batch of questionnaires have been already collected (early 2022) that will work as the baseline of climate understanding of citizens of MOE. In addition, questionnaires before events and after will be used, to assess the immediate quality of different actions and in average the change of climate awareness of MOE citizens. Approach to monitor impacts For the direct information and impacts of the solutions, the monitoring will be through the CAE and automatic calculation of indicators that can be found in 1.5. ANNEX – KPI used by MOE per solution Availability and access of monitored data All the data will be stored in a server at MOE premises. NCSRD will be gathering a copy of all data to perform analysis, post-processing and visualisation. The NCSRD outcomes will be forwarded to MOE server, for storing and they will be also stored at NCSRD premises alongside the original data. MOE and NCSRD server will be a copy of each other, thus, securing the availability and robustness of MOE dataset. All data or part of dataset will be available via events and upon submission of interest for specific scope and purpose. Specifically for the indicators data of TransformAr solutions, they will available via CIH and CAE, and potentially to other outcomes of TransformAr project (e.g. TADA - https://mssg.ipta.demokritos.gr/transformar_tools_repo/ ) 18 1.4. Work in the upcoming months In the upcoming moths the MOE will use the monitoring data, conduct simulations, on the status of the environment, design scenarios of Climate Change contribution, assess impacts and provide mitigation measures , together with a policy plan for 2030 1.5. ANNEX – KPI used by MOE per solution To evaluate the effectiveness and outreach of the climate adaptation solutions implemented in the Municipality of Egaleo, a dedicated set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) was developed. These indicators were selected to reflect both the immediate outputs and long-term impacts of each solution under the TransformAr framework. The KPIs are directly connected to the data gathered from smart climate stations (SCS), citizen engagement via the app (CAE), social demand analysis (DSI), awareness-raising modules (AWAR), and the climate innovation hub (CIH). They allow the municipality and its partners to monitor technical performance, behavior change, community participation, and alignment with policy planning needs. Each KPI has been designed to: • Reflect the specific context and vulnerabilities of Egaleo, • Capture cross-cutting impacts (health, infrastructure, environment, economy), • Enable tracking of solution scalability and replicability, • Support data-informed decision-making processes. These KPIs are grouped by solution type and include both quantitative metrics (e.g. real-time data accuracy, participation rates) and qualitative outcomes (e.g. increased climate literacy, policy integration). Baseline data collected since 2022 provides a reference point for measuring progress throughout and beyond the TransformAr project timeline. Moreover, the KPI system contributes input data to the TransformAr Avoided Damages Application, allowing estimation of long-term socio-economic benefits derived from implemented adaptation measures. Selected indicators are also expected to feed into WP6 methodologies for cost-benefit assessment and decision-support models, ensuring coherence across evaluation, planning, and upscaling. The indicators should serve both formative and summative purposes — supporting adaptive management during implementation and enabling ex post assessment of project outcomes. The KPI system includes: • Metrics capturing citizen engagement and behavioral change (e.g. app usage frequency, engagement rates in participatory events), • Environmental performance indicators (e.g. urban heat mitigation, air quality from smart climate stations), • Institutional outcomes (e.g. integration of data into municipal planning via CIH), and 20 • Synergy indicators (e.g. co-benefits across green infrastructure and community innovation). Each indicator is grounded in a robust data collection protocol with source identification (SCS, CAE, DSI), frequency of measurement, and target values where applicable. Additional attention was given to triangulation of data (e.g. cross-verification between app analytics and on-the-ground surveys), in line with WP5's multi-source evaluation methodology. Solution Expected impact Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Source/Measurement Approach Smart Climate Stations (SCS) The use of the SCS network will increase the knowledge and quantify the local climatic conditions. Data will be used for planning adaptation solutions. Number of SCS installed in key municipal locations Station deployment tracking Increase climate change awareness both for policy makers and citizens. Real-time microclimate data accuracy Data comparison with baseline climate models Increase adaptive capability of MOE Percentage of data integrated into municipal decision-making Citizen App (CAE) Increase citizen engagement and awareness Number of registered users and active participants App analytics tracking Increase citizen engagement and awareness Public engagement through app feedback and surveys AwarenessRaising Modules (AWAR) Increasing students' awareness is expected to have a dramatic positive effect in the long term, leading to an increase in proactive citizens focused on climate adaptation. Number of students trained through awareness sessions Attendance records Increasing students' awareness is expected to have a dramatic positive effect in the long term, leading to an increase in proactive citizens focused on climate adaptation. Increase in climate literacy among students (measured via pre/post surveys) Survey-based impact assessment 21 Increase the hands-on experience of students to understand and analyse climatic data, as well as increase their understanding of the need for actionable solutions. Number of workshops conducted Climate Innovation Hub (CIH) Increase the collaboration with other EU projects and initiatives that take place in the same demonstration area. Number of climate-related projects initiated Event participation tracking Increase climate change and adaptation awareness. Public attendance in innovation events (e.g., datathons, hackathons) Demand Analysis for Social Services (DSI) Understand the effect of climate change on Social Services and their needs for adaptation. Number of social services evaluated for climate resilience Social services data analysis Short and long-term planning or adapting Social Services to the climate change. Forecast accuracy of demand changes due to climate impacts Municipality action plan integration Evaluate the effectiveness of TransformAr as a project to identify and promote actionable solutions for climate-proofing Social Services. Percentage of recommendations adopted by local policymakers KPI table note : Each KPI in the updated table is linked to specific TransformAr solutions (SCS, CAE, DSI, AWAR, CIH) and describes measurable outputs relevant to both short-term awareness impacts and long-term policy relevance. Indicators have been aligned with data flows and monitoring timelines, including citizen participation rates, behavioral survey results, and environmental measurements for local policy design. These KPIs were selected to ensure replicability and scalability across other Mediterranean urban areas. 2.0. Galicia – MRM/IR/INTERM Executive summary The current report outlines the context and the ongoing solutions within one of the 6 demonstrators of the TransformAr project, the Galician demonstrator. Additionally, it addresses the expected impact, impact indicators, and their monitoring procedures. The Galician demonstrator focuses on adapting shellfish aquaculture and harvesting to the challenges posed by climate change. The activity has been selected due to its significant role in the regional economy and its susceptibility to climate change, as outlined in the Galician Climate Change Strategy 2050 and in the Integrated Regional Plan for Energy and Climate (2019-2023). Mussel aquaculture, accounting for approximately 40% of the European aquaculture production, is a vital sector employing nearly 4,000 individuals in the region. Similarly, clam culture farms and shellfish harvesting along coastal land concessions and intertidal sandbanks, directly employ around 4,300 people, with approximately 90% being self-employed women. Key climate-related threats affecting shellfish aquaculture include the potential intensification of extreme weather events, unpredictable fluctuations in mussel seed availability, and the expected increase in harmful algal blooms and acidification. Also, changes in coastal oceanographic and hydrological factors will alter the sedimentary composition of shellfish banks, impacting shellfish productivity and mortality. In extreme cases, this could result in the loss of these habitats. Within TransformAr, three solutions are tested to comprehensively grasp the nature of these changes and bolster adaptation to climate change: ● Resilience Index (RI) for the Galician mussel aquaculture. Developed by UVIGO-REDE, provides insight into operational risks scenarios caused by the effects of climate change and identifies the resilience factors available for adaptation. This index is built through the gathering of context information and consultation with experts and stakeholders on the one hand, and modelling of data on the other hand. This knowledge empowers practitioners and policymakers to informed decision-making and define efficient strategies for enhancing the operational resilience of the Galician mussel aquaculture. ● Intertidal Monitoring (INTERM): The sedimentological knowledge increase and the application of an up-to-date morphodynamic model by UVIGO-GEOMA, enhances our understanding of the intertidal sandbank response to climate change. It provides valuable insight for adapting production in the face of changing environmental conditions. ● Mussel Raft Monitoring (MRM): CETMAR has pioneered the digitalization of mussel rafts to enable real-time production monitoring. This tool's design and implementation has been carried out in close collaboration with mussel production stakeholders, adapting to their needs. It focuses on the collection of extensive real-time data from mussel rafts to optimise the management of mussel production, particularly in response to climate-related challenges. The innovation of these solutions lies in the development and application of digital and technological solutions to be provided to the shellfish aquaculture and harvesting sector in Galicia. These solutions aim to provide real-time data, improve understanding of environmental responses, and enhance the efficiency and resilience of these industries to better adapt to climate changeThe main impacts will be the improved understanding of the problematic, the awareness about climate change effects on the sector and the satisfaction of the solutions contribution, at the two key community systems involved: the clam sector and the mussel industry. This will be assessed mainly with indicators informing on the performance of the solutions and the participation, perception, involvement, and interest of key sectoral stakeholders. 2 2.1. Context Infographic Preliminary Infographic that we’ll be improved for communication and transference purposes in 2024. Figure 1. Visual scheme of the Galician demonstrator and the solutions being tested 3 Background & objectives Galicia is one of the most significant fishing regions within the European Union. Within Galician fisheries, mussel and clam aquaculture systems play a vital role in the regional economy, influencing a wide range of activities including the processing and commercialization sector, the canning industry, shipbuilding, and tourism. Tourists partake in various activities such as dining on seafood, participating in gastronomic tours, and paying for boat trips and fishing excursions. Marine aquaculture and shellfish harvesting occur in coastal facilities on land or in marine areas considered as inland waters, known as "Rías". On the one hand, the mussel aquaculture sector directly employs over 4,000 individuals in the region. This industry faces climate-related threats such as adverse impacts from extreme weather events on mussel raft structures, the availability of mussel seeds, and harmful algal blooms. On the other hand, clam farming takes place in the coastal sandbanks (numbering more than 600), with shellfish harvesting on foot involving approximately 3,500 selfemployed individuals collecting bivalves and polychaetes on beaches and intertidal sandbanks. Notably, 90% of these harvesters are women. Because of Climate Change, coastal oceanographic and hydrological conditions are expected to alter the sediment characteristics of shellfish banks, reducing shellfish productivity and increasing mortality. In extreme cases, this could lead to the loss of these habitats. To confront these challenges, communities find it challenging to understand what currently exists, what is required and what is feasible in terms of adapting to CC. In numerous workshops and sector meetings, it has been asserted that timely and open data communication is essential for informed and efficient decision-making. This, in turn, boosts project feasibility and shapes citizen behaviour. Embracing digital and technological innovations, alongside streamlined management systems, could yield swifter, more efficient responses to extreme events. This, in essence, could mitigate climaterelated damage, all while taking budgetary limitations into careful consideration. Objectives The objective of the Galician demonstrator is to drive a region-specific adaptive transformational adaptation process for the clam and mussel sectors, responding to the prevailing multi-sectoral climate risks. The table 1 correlates the solutions developed by the Galicia demonstrator with the specific objectives they contribute to. Table 4. Specific objectives in relation to solutions demonstrated Specific objectives MRM RI INTERM Improve the understanding of the regional oceanographic environment and test tools that will contribute to the effective use of this information. X X Engage with stakeholders and increase the awareness and the perception of risks to address territorial vulnerabilities linked to CC. X X X 4 Facilitate the integration of Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence to bring digitalisation and automation strategies to the shellfish sector. X Provide policymakers with decision-making support tools to define actions and a roadmap for enhancing resilience. X X Showcase the efficacy of solutions in bolstering resilience within the mussel and clam sector in Galicia and ascertain their potential for replication. X X X Derive a set of recommendations and measures including an appealing document, by using the tools delivered. X X X Geographical description Deliverable 1.2 of the TransformAr project provides a detailed and comprehensive explanation of the geographical characteristics of Galicia. This section offers only a summary to contextualise the demonstrator and the solutions. Galicia (6.4 - 9.6°W, 41.5 - 44.2°N) is located in the North Atlantic region, in the Northwest quarter of Spain. The region covers 29,576 km2, representing 5.8% of Spanish territory, with a coast line of 1,659 km (32.8% of the Spanish coastline). The intricate Atlantic coast of Galicia is mainly characterised by the presence of multiple coastal inlets known as Rías. Their geomorphology and circulation favour the efficient use of the nutrients transported by the upwelling process in spring and summer, and provide protection against autumn and winter storms, conditions that make Galicia an exceptional site for the mussel aquaculture on hanging ropes and bivalve extraction in sandbanks. In particular, the Ria de Arousa, the largest bay inlet in the southwest coast, appears as the most productive area with 70% of the mussel rafts and 50% clam sales ((Xunta de Galicia, 2021a). Galicia is located in the transition from the temperate to the subpolar regimes of the North Atlantic, which, among other factors, makes it particularly sensitive to the predicted CC. Its consequences in the regional oceanography systems and the consequent socio economic impact remains under evaluation. The territory of Galicia is home to 56 types of habitats of community interest, with 10 of them being considered as priorities. According to the data extracted from the “Master Plan of the Natura 2000 Network” prepared in 2012 by the regional government Xunta de Galicia (Ramil-Rego et al., 2012), 12.7% of the territory of Galicia is considered a Site of Community Interest (SCI) and 3.4% corresponds to Areas of Special Protection for Birds (SPAs), which are usually part of SCIs. Galicia’s regional population includes some 2.7 million people. The region has developed a Galician Climate Change Strategy 2050, and an Integrated Regional Plan for Energy and Climate for the period 2019-2023 which is meant to guide the implementation of the strategy. 11 Figure 4. Draft presentation of the results of the synthetic Resilience Index (the numbers are fictitious until final calculation). Intertidal Monitoring – INTERM The GEOMA Research group from the University of Vigo implements a sedimentological monitoring of sandbanks at specific locations of clam exploitation with the aim to improve the knowledge of the sediment dynamics, the stability of the ecosystem substratum, and its response to the predicted Climate Change outcome. An updated understanding will improve STH and policymakers basis for adequate adaptation solutions, efficient management currently hindered by the lack of information. 12 This solution directly responds to two aspects in the nature of the sandbanks substrate understanding: 1. The sedimentological context of the Galician intertidal sandbanks, specifically what drives their morphology and how their sediments seasonally behave, and the potential relationship with changes in shellfish productivity. 2. Consequences of the Climate Change on the Galician sandbanks terrain. Although we know that environmental variations alter the morphology and composition of the intertidal sediments (e.g. Friederichs 2011) potentially altering the ecosystem, few studies have undertaken this issue at the regional level. Within this context, selection of study-case locations was performed after discussion with local shellfishers and scientific community involved, trying to respond to the observed variable historical productivity of commercial clams and arising sedimentological concerns. To fit our evaluation in the time frame of the project, the "space for time" hypothesis has been assumed, selecting three areas on the south margin of the Ría de Arousa, with different geological configuration and levels of shellfish productivity. The INTERM solution has a threefold mission: 1. Intertidal Monitoring: Based on previous and ongoing STH efforts currently used for sediment management strategies, a systematic monitoring has been carried out to obtain seasonally updated datasets along the duration of the project. Starting in month 13 (October 2022), sediment properties (grain size distribution, organic matter content, geochemical composition, etc.), terrain elevation datasets and oceanographic parameters influencing the area dynamics are being surveyed. 2. Morphodynamic Modelling: A model set up is being configured and validated on the DELFT3D package (Deltares, The Netherlands) for a regional level domain where the tide is the main hydrodynamic factor. Sediment transport under different bathymetric conditions, tidal currents, and river discharge variations are evaluated using the modules FLOW and MOR. An orthogonal grid is established and refined towards the selected intertidal sandbanks, incorporating external datasets for deep bathymetry, but obtained higher resolution depth and sediment composition for the selected shallow sandbanks. Simulations depend on the boundary conditions defined for tide, river and water surface. Currently, the model set-up needs to be validated, contrasting the results with ongoing monitored and public stations data, to allow the exploration of regional CC scenarios with variable hydrodynamic conditions. We expect to describe whether the selected sandbanks lose or gain sediment, as well as their sediment texture variations, that might avoid some species growth. 3. Knowledge transfer: The compiled information, including the generated datasets and predicted scenarios, will be analysed and processed to finally return to the clam sector in a way that will contribute to improve the sandbank monitoring guidelines, and to be the basis to cocreate and purpose management strategies of harvested sandbanks against the CC. The planning, methodology and lessons learnt of the process will be available to guide similar processes in equivalent areas. 13 Figure 5. INTERM strategy scheme. Mussel Raft Monitoring - MRM The Technological Centre of the Sea – CETMAR, is carrying out the development of a pilot case of digitalization of the mussel aquaculture. The conditions of the marine environment and the production are being monitored in active mussels’ farms, for the improvement of the exploitations management, with the support and collaboration of its owners. The first comprehensive monitoring of a mussel raft in the Galician rías was conducted at the physical variables level in the framework of the ESSMA project (Ecological Sustainability of Suspended Mussel Aquaculture), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Aguiar et al., 2015). This study suggested that it was necessary a revision of the ecological concepts, such as food depletion and/or reduction in water flow, based on idealized linear flows through the rafts. This included the consideration of the "clearance" area, defined as the area affected by non-linear effects produced by the raft itself and its surrounding rafts. These conclusions were supported by the results obtained through a near real-time monitoring of a raft, during more than a year and a half, in the Lorbé polygon of the Ría de Ares and Betanzos (NW Galicia, Spain). The digitalization in this case involved the installation of four currentmeters and four turbidimeters/fluorometers placed on each side of the raft that recorded data in a self-contained way. Simultaneously, the position and orientation of the raft were also recorded in real time. The autonomy of this raft was limited by energy requirements because most of the equipment had batteries not powered by solar panels. This intricates recurrent battery changes and, consequently, numerous visits to the raft. In this case, the solution developed in TransformAr includes the monitoring of environmental, and production parameters (currently in two mussel-rafts), based on the implementation of IoT solutions powered by solar energy. Besides, the remote visualisation of the data on an internet-based platform is also being developed, presenting the information for production management. A key aspect is the reception and feedback from workers in the sector, paying attention to their opinions and suggestions for improvement or adaptation of the installation to their interests. Figure 6 explains the logic and the sequence of the data gathered from the moment that the sensor captures them to the visualisation on the dashboard. 14 Figure 6. MRM flowchart Next, it is shown the degree of execution of this solution in three phases as well as the time frame: ● The first phase consists of a system that monitors the basic parameters and can validate the installation and the developments created expressly for its use on rafts. For this purpose, an INSITU data storage installation was designed and installed in a raft to be tested for a few months and make the necessary modifications to improve its robustness. At the same time, a first analysis of the data was carried out in order to optimize criteria in terms of storage capacity and frequency of data acquisition. With all the lessons learned from the first phase, a new design of the installation architecture was made to adapt it to a real-time data collection system. ● The second phase develops the communication protocols and the improvements to be able to perform data acquisition autonomously and send the measurements to ground stations for further analysis. In addition to the oceanographic monitoring sensors, other meteorological sensors were added to complement and improve the sampling capability of the system installed in two mussel rafts. Data analysis procedures are being improved as well as the characteristics of the huge amount of data received in real time. The designed installation is feasible for the available infrastructure and resistant to the adverse conditions of the marine environment and has a high degree of autonomy, both in terms of energy and in the measurement and telematic transmission of monitored data, as well as having systems for detecting possible failures. ● The third phase, implemented in 2024, will improve the data analysis systems and the necessary implementations to visualise the data in a user-friendly web platform. This dashboard will show real time data, as well as all the data history of the variables that are being collected. It is intended 15 that data access and the visualisation are affordable for STH and useful in decision-making for more effective and sustainable management of resources. To assess the feasibility of digitalization in the sector, the technical and economic aspects are analysed, as well as the impact of the implemented solutions, facilitating and promoting their replication and scalability in the sector. Although it is too early to be able to evaluate the actions or changes that can be carried out by workers in the sector after analysing the data provided, we already can assert that the information collected is interesting and adds value to the sector and their workers. By incorporating IoT technology into mussel raft monitoring, the shellfish industry can adapt to and mitigate the challenges presented by a changing climate while maintaining sustainable and profitable operations. This effort contributes to the achievement of several objectives defined at National and Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plans. Specifically, it is aligned with the Integrated Regional Plan for Energy and Climate (2019-2023) for the development and implementation of the Galician Strategy for Climate Change and Energy 2050 in the lines of action: 11 - Consolidate an observation network as an instrument to improve monitoring, 14 - Promote the conservation and efficient use of natural resources, and 18 - Consolidate sustainable management of fishing and aquaculture that minimises the impacts of CC and guarantees the current positioning of the sector in the long term. Expected Innovations Each of the three solutions presented in point 3.1 is expected to generate new information for the demonstrator that will be transfer to a broader audience. In general terms it is expected that the demonstrator innovates on monitoring, technical and social aspects. Table 2 illustrates which solution results in the desired innovation field. Table 5. Expected innovations. Innovation MRM INTERM RI Innovation on monitoring x x Technical innovation x x x Awareness in climate change x RESILIENCE INDEX (RI) The novelty of the RI in the Galicia demonstrator and its recognition in noteworthy publications and reports highlights its robustness and applicability. The RI development methodology and validation was documented by REDE research group in a 2021 publication in the Marine Policy journal (LeónMateos et al., 2021). Furthermore, this paper was cited in the Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report for the IPCC. The RI first application took place in the A Coruña Port, Galicia (Spain). However, the methodology used to create this synthetic index can be transferred to other sectors and regions. It is worth noting that such a decision-making tool has never been implemented in the key community system (KCS) of the mussel aquaculture and it is unknown for actors involved in it. The innovative value of the RI solution in TransformAr is represented by the following factors: 16 a) Decision-Making assistance instrument. The RI will play a crucial role in providing STH, managers, and policymakers with accessible and understandable information derived from diverse scientific fields not interconnected before. The main innovative factor involves the gathering of both quantitative and qualitative data belonging to different areas and transforming it into simple and easily interpretable metrics with a format that is user-friendly and enables informed and forwardlooking decisions on where to concentrate their efforts. b) Holistic assessment. To maintain uninterrupted aquaculture operations and even foster the sector to grow as climate change becomes more apparent, holistic approaches to addressing climate change impacts are needed (Maulu et al., 2021). The RI will bridge that gap by providing a broad view on the level of adaptive capacity of mussel aquaculture by interconnecting risks, vulnerabilities, resilience factors, and actionable recommendations in the benefit of an informed decision-making. c) Interdisciplinary approach. To move forward long-term responses, incorporate governance initiatives that take into account different needs of STH, users, and culture ecosystems as a whole are required (Reid et al., 2019). Current tools for measuring resilience are often constrained, tend to adopt a partial perspective, biased toward environmental dimensions or neglect social and economic aspects (Maulu et al., 2021). The comprehensive involvement of all STH in formulating the index will mitigate the biases commonly associated with indicators that rely solely on the viewpoints of select parties. d) Stakeholder engagement and dissemination. The RI development involves active stakeholder participation not only in formulating the index but also in decision-making for strategic actions to enhance the sector's adaptive capacity. According to Engle & van Senten (2022) successful engagement through participatory approaches, including policy-makers, producers, local citizens, and other STH, is preferable over command-and-control methods. Responsible and sustainable aquaculture, guided by science-based regulations applied efficiently, holds the promise of improving community resilience. INTERTIDAL MONITORING - INTERM Whether the sediment data integration of the selected shellfish sandbanks relies on historical data collected by local fishermen's guilds and scientific or government institutions, the INTERM involves surveying at a temporal and regional scale never performed before in the region. The innovation of the INTERM can be then outlined in the following items: a) Scientific / Monitoring Innovation. Multiple efforts have recently been made to control and manage the intertidal sandbanks, however, in the recent years, there is a clear decrease in shellfish productivity (www.pescadegalicial.gal) which causes have not yet been identified. At a regional level, some studies have explored how climate affect the biophysical conditions for bivalve development, such as temperature and salinity (e.g. Des et al., 2021; Dominguez et al., 2021), however few work has been done regarding the ecosystem suspended sediment dynamics and substrate stability, which can be altered among other causes, due to variable climate dynamics. The INTERM solution aims to innovate in the direction to fill this lack of knowledge, exploring both the present day sediment dynamics by intertidal monitoring, and future response, by morphodynamic simulations. b) Technical innovation in the evaluation of CC effects. As an innovative technical solution, INTERM evaluates the CC affectation to the regional coast and marine environments of Galicia by the use of the state-of-the-art DELFT3D model package on its recently updated Flexible version. The evaluation of the sediment transport and morphodynamic evolution at this estuarine domain, and its consequences on bivalve ecosystems sustainability, through the MOR module of DELFT3D has 17 never been done. Additionally, no morphodynamic simulations were previously applied to the selected intertidal sandbanks, which are the most productive of Galicia, to study their morphological evolution climatic variable conditions. Therefore, the fine-tuning of the model for the confined coastal zone with irregular coastline and valuing sediment transport for changing hydrodynamic conditions represents an important innovation of the INTERM solution. c) Innovation in science-society interactions and strategies: INTERM will make an effort to improve shellfish harvesters' confidence in science and researchers as allies in the management of the banks, aiming to innovate following recent RRI guidelines contrasting traditional scientific work. For this, within the framework of the project, we aim to make the monitoring effort profitable by coordinating the efforts with the interests of the fishermen's associations in the measurement of mandatory indicators for the resource management plans. d) Additionally, in this context of up-to-date research directions, the monitoring of sandbanks has been designed keeping in mind that long time series of data cannot be supported by research projects with a fixed duration and will eventually have to be left to the fishermen's associations. Therefore, methods used in the project have been adapted to facilitate continuation of sampling strategies, replications, and main analysis, to those existing in these organisations, once the project ends. MUSSEL RAFT MONITORING - MRM CETMAR has extensive experience over the past 15 years in real-time monitoring of oceanographic and meteorological variables within the framework of the transborder RAIA Observatory. However, monitoring a functioning mussel raft, represents a significant and pioneering leap, involving the adaptation of digital measurement systems without disrupting the work of the mussel producers. The digitalization of a mussel raft requires a different approach compared with traditional in-situ monitoring. The following aspects are being innovative in the mussel sector Galician industry: a) Real-time Data Collection of environmental variables trough IoT systems that transmit data to a centralised platform. This enables immediate data analysis, offering timely insights into changing environmental conditions. b) Remote Monitoring reduces physical presence and helps ensuring the safety of personnel. c) Data Analysis and Predictive Modelling. Machine learning and data analytics help in identifying patterns and trends related to CC impacts on mussel farming. This information can be used for making informed decisions and the formulation of adaptive strategies. d) Alerts and Notifications when certain parameters reach critical levels. For instance, if water temperature exceeds a certain threshold, the mussel raft operators receive an alert, enabling immediate protective actions. e) Historical Data Storage that allows the creation of valuable long-term CC impact records for scientific research and policy development related to CC and its effects on mussel farming. f) Energy Efficiency, using low-power sensors and communication technologies. This ensures that monitoring operations do not place an excessive burden on power resources. Ongoing efforts are directed towards mitigating the effects of reduced solar radiation in Galicia during the autumn and winter seasons. g) No interference in daily workers’ tasks: the installation has been designed to be integrated into the available infrastructure. 18 2.3. Expected impacts Overview of the expected impacts The overall impact is to empower the sector with real-time data and predictive capabilities, improving operational efficiency and supporting sustainable and adaptive management practices to face the environmental changing conditions due CC. It is expected that the users will find the monitoring of their production activities more manageable and adaptable to the changing environmental conditions. This, in turn, may enable them to better plan their work and have a positive impact on their working conditions and safety. The solutions that are being developed, are understood as a trial to study the feasibility of the digitalization of the sectors for a better adaptation to CC. Thus, the effectiveness of these tools will be gauged by the extent to which they are embraced and how satisfied users, including producers and scientists, are with them. Furthermore, the aim of the demonstrator is that the insights derived from these tools facilitate STH and policymakers to identify strategic focal points for adapting to CC effects and make well-informed decisions to enhance the operational resilience of Galician mussel and clam aquaculture. Table 6. Expected impacts of the solutions. Expected impact RI INTERM MRM Knowledge increase and transfer about regional oceanographic environment X X X Availability of technically viable and effective digital-technological tools to address territorial vulnerabilities linked to CC. X X Availability of decision-making support tools to define actions and a roadmap for enhancing resilience. X Awareness rising and better perception of CC risks affecting the sector X X X Social acceptance and interest in replicating the solutions or any of the components developed X X X Governance and management measures X X X Project impact indicators, approach of monitoring Prior to obtaining impact results, it is imperative to first gather data on the implementation of the solutions, such as identifying suitable data collection areas, securing producer agreements, installing sensors, ensuring sensor functionality, and the type of information obtained. 19 Then, the expected impacts of the solutions will be measured trough the impact indicators as described in the Table 4. In this table, several columns have also been added to clearly display the baseline, the expected outcomes at the end of the project, the current situation, and the approach to monitoring indicators per impact (the type and format of verification sources). The table could be enhanced by providing more information for the next monitoring report. The impact of these solutions will be closely monitored in accordance with project guidelines and, where feasible, aligned with other demonstrators. Overall, the increase in knowledge impact through the course of the project is measured by comparison between the obtained measurements from monitoring surveys and sensors and baseline existing data. It is assessed mostly based on user satisfaction (producers and scientists), technical and economic viability, awareness and behavioural change, and the potential for replication. The monitoring of these indicators is approached through workshops, meetings, testimonies of key informants, surveys and questionnaires. Reports of the involvement of the STH and communication and transfer activities will serve as verification sources, together with information about the data publication records and web/visor visualisations. 20 Table 7. Indicators to measure the expected impacts, linked to the baseline, the expected outcomes, the current situation, and the monitoring approach. Expected impact Indicators Solution Approach Baseline Achieved Expected Knowledge increase and transfer Generation and dissemination of new outputs of knowledge related to CC management. RI Data publication records/report, web/visor views (Google analytics records), survey of STK using data. Log of communication and transfer events, report of transfer workshops, minutes of meetings with 5 helix and bilateral meetings. - 2 outputs identified and distributed among STK: - 70 climate risk scenarios for the mussel aquaculture - 20 resilience factors, useful for facing the effects of climate change on mussel aquaculture 2 Accessible and real time information on the effects of changing local environmental conditions on a real mussel raft (at high frequency) MRM 0 No data available yet Access to the digital dashboard: 1 entry each 15 days Number of STH or institutions using data INTE RM MRM - No data available yet 90% of engaged STK Km2 emerged topography (by foot) INTE 0 0.36 Km2 TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 27 www.transformar.eu 2.4. Conclusions The Galician Climate Change and Energy Strategy 2050 and sectoral workshops outlines the importance of understanding how the variations in oceanographic conditions, changes in rainfall and runoff regime, will threaten the aquaculture sector. In this context, the challenge is to find suitable adaptation tools to ensure the resilience and sustainability, considering both their adequacy and economic viability. In order to address this effectively, it is crucial to monitor the evolution of climate-related risks and provide the sector knowledge through accessible and user-friendly datasets. Three solutions are being developed in order to provide valuable insights into these challenges: the Intertidal Monitoring - INTERM, Mussel Raft Monitoring - MRM, and Resilience Index - RI. In general terms it is expected that the demonstrator innovates on monitoring, technical and social aspects. It provides a decision-making tool, simplifying complex scientific data into easily understandable metrics while offering a comprehensive assessment of adaptive capacity. The solutions also present innovations in scientific monitoring filling knowledge gaps, and conducts simulations unprecedented in Galicia's productive sandbanks. Moreover, exhibits innovations in realtime data collection, remote monitoring, predictive modelling, alerts, data storage, energy efficiency, and non-disruptive integration into daily operations, marking significant advancements in the Galician mussel industry. It ensures inclusive stakeholder engagement, reducing biases and involving them in decisionmaking processes for sectoral improvements beyond the project's duration. The impact of these solutions will be evaluated by the awareness and the perception of risks, the availability and utilisation of tools, in combination with the knowledge increase. Furthermore, the roadmap with consensus and validated solutions will be a key indicator of success, as well as the engagement of relevant actors and STH. While the increase of understanding in the problem to solve impact is approached through indicators based on data availability improvement, the approach to monitor the social impacts involves a range of tools, including workshops, testimonies, key informant interviews, surveys, reports, and various communication and transfer events. These tools will help demonstrate the achievement of the expected impacts and enable STH to assess the effectiveness of the solutions. In summary, the Galician demonstrator is making strides in testing innovative solutions to enhance the resilience of shellfish aquaculture and harvesting in the face of CC. The specific objectives of the project, including improved understanding of sea behaviour, stakeholder engagement, digitalization, and decision-making support, all contribute to the overarching goal of transforming and adapting these vital industries in the Galician region to the challenges of CC. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 28 www.transformar.eu 2.5. References Aguiar, E., Piedracoba, S., Álvarez Salgado, X.A., Labarta, U., 2015.Circulation of water through a mussel raft: clearance area vs. idealized linear. Reviews in Aquaculture, 7, 1-20. Álvarez-Salgado XA, Labarta U, Fernández-Reiriz MJ, Figueiras FG, Rosón G, Piedracoba S, Filgueira R, Cabanas JM. (2008). Renewal time and the impact of harmful algal blooms on the extensive mussel raft culture of the Iberian coastal upwelling system (SW Europe). Harmful Algae 7 (2008) 849–855 Carayannis, E. G., Barth, T. D., & Campbell, D. F. (2012). The Quintuple Helix innovation model: global warming as a challenge and driver for innovation. Journal of innovation and entrepreneurship, 1, 1-12. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2192-5372-1-2 Cramp R, Mulvey C, Cameron J, Wintour M, Gomez Isaza D, and Franklin C. (2021). Impacts of post-fire ash and runoff sediment on the physiological tolerances of Australian freshwater aquatic fauna. NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub Project 8.3.7 report, Brisbane. Des, M., Fernández-Nóvoa, D., DeCastro, M., Gómez-Gesteira, J.L., Sousa, M., Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. Modelling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas. Science of the Total Environment 790, 148147. Des, M., Gómez-Gesteira, M., Decastro, M., Gómez-Gesteira, L., Sousa, M., 2020. How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture? Science of the Total Environment 709, 136117. Domínguez, R., Olabarria, C., Woodin, S.A., Wethey, D.S., Peteiro, L.G., Macho, G., Vázquez, E., 2021. Contrasting responsiveness of four ecologically and economically important bivalves to simulated heat waves. Marine Environmental Research 164, 105229. European Commission (2018), “Adaptation Preparedness Scoreboard Country Fiches”, Commission Staff Working Document, COM (2018) 738 final, European Commission, Brussels EEA, 2017a: Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerability in Europe 2016 – An Indicator-based Report. EEA Report No 1/2017. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, ISBN 978-92-9213-835-6. (424 pp). Engle, C. R., & van Senten, J. (2022). Resilience of communities and sustainable aquaculture: governance and regulatory effects. Fishes, 7(5), 268. https://www.mdpi.com/2410-3888/7/5/268 Friedrichs, C.T., 2011. Tidal flat morphodynamics: A synthesis. IEA (2021) Spain Climate Resilience Policy Indicator. https://www.iea.org/articles/spain-climateresilience-policy-indicator Fuentes-Santos I, Labarta U, Fernandez-Reiriz MJ, Kay S, Hojllo SS, Alvarez-Salgado X.A. (2021) Modeling the impact of climate change on mussel aquaculture in a coastal upwelling system: a critical assessment. Science of the Total Environment, 775, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145020 Khamis, R; Simonet, S. Varis, S., Roch, J; Couldrick, L. et al. (2022) Stakeholder matrix and IEs Baseline Profiles. TransformAr Deliverable 1.2, H2020 grant no. 101036683 TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 29 www.transformar.eu León-Mateos, F., Sartal, A., López-Manuel, L., & Quintas, M. A. (2021). Adapting our sea ports to the challenges of climate change: Development and validation of a Port Resilience Index. Marine Policy, 130, 104573. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21001846 Maulu, S., Hasimuna, O. J., Haambiya, L. H., Monde, C., Musuka, C. G., Makorwa, T. H., ... & Nsekanabo, J. D. (2021). Climate change effects on aquaculture production: sustainability implications, mitigation, and adaptations. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 609097. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.609097/full Pérez FF, Padín XA, Pazos Y, Gilcoto M, Cabanas JM, Pardo PC, Doval M, Farina-Busto L. (2010) Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling. Global Change Biology, 22 February 2010, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02125.x Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D. C., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Tignor, M., Alegría, A., & Okem, A. (2022). IPCC, 2022: Summary for policymakers. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf Ramil-Rego P, Crecente Maseda R (Coord). Dirección Xeral de Conservación da Natureza, Conselleria do Medio Rural. Xunta de Galicia, 2012. Plan Director da Rede Natura 2000 de Galicia. http://activarednatura2000.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Plan-Director-Galicia.pdf Reid, G. K., Gurney-Smith, H. J., Flaherty, M., Garber, A. F., Forster, I., Brewer-Dalton, K., ... & De Silva, S. (2019). Climate change and aquaculture: considering adaptation potential. Aquaculture Environment Interactions, 11, 603-624.https://www.int-res.com/articles/aei2019/11/q011p603.pdf Sousa MC, Ribeiro A, Des M, Gomez-Gesteira M, deCastro M, Dias JM. (2020). NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating. Science of The Total Environment 703, 134808. Xunta de Galicia. (2021, a). Enquisa sobre a poboación ocupada nos sectores da pesca e da acuicultura mariña en Galicia - OCUPESCA 2019, https://www.pescadegalicia.gal/Publicaciones/pdfs/Ocupesca_2019.pdf TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 30 www.transformar.eu 3.0. Lappeenranta – Developing stormwater management and monitoring Executive summary A number of solutions exist to adapt to the consequences of climate change. An overview of existing solutions is provided in the ‘Catalogue of solutions’ (Deliverable report 3.2). This report describes firstly the adaptation solutions that are being tested in the city of Lappeenranta, Finland, and secondly how the impact of the solutions will be monitored. Reference is given to the respective task (T) in work package 4. The solutions are: 1) Nature-based urban stormwater solution (URB) (T4.3.2): a biofiltration area, that captures and treats runoff and storm water from the surroundings street and sidewalk in the city center of Lappeenranta. 2) Stormwater monitoring (SWMM) 3 (T4.4.1): The influent to the biofiltration area and groundwater is monitored with real-time sensors for water quantity, and quality, in addition to sampling campaigns for runoff and groundwater. Water flow volumes/surface levels in pipelines as well as stormwater quality are monitored in stormwater conveyance system facilities to identify capacity and quality issues. 3) Citizen App Finland (CAF) (T4.1.2): Data on stormwater management, from monitoring and simulations, are brought together in data applications. An existing platform used by the city administration, named Street AI, is being extended for stormwater management. In addition, a new app is being developed for the citizens of Lappeenranta. Citizen app allows users to get up-to-date information e.g. on air quality, weather, stormwater quality, stormwater drainage system flooding and ongoing street works. 4) The fourth solution is a Choice Experiment survey for citizens (CEI, T4.5.3): this survey is asking citizens about their willingness to apply runoff and stormwater management measures on private land. The choice experiment is not limited to the citizens of Lappeenranta. The choice experiment reaches out to 1000 citizens across Finland, and 1000 citizens in Norway. Technical partners supporting city of Lappeenranta are: LUT, UA, NTNU, Verhaert. The tasks of each partner are described in section 3.2. This intermediary monitoring report defines objectives for these four solutions and describes which impacts are expected and how they are and will be monitored. The objectives are: (i) Reducing pluvial urban flood risk, (ii) Reducing the overall load of the stormwater drain system, (iii) Increasing environmental awareness of emission load to recipient lake and groundwater, and mitigation of the load caused by the runoff, (iv) Increasing knowledge and accessibility of data to all stakeholders via real-time monitoring and novel data, (v) Facilitation improvement of the choice of alternative options, e.g., green infrastructure, (vi) Increase awareness of stakeholders on climate change impacts on local level and region. 3 The Grant Agreement mentions 2 solutions SWM and SWMM, yet both refer to the monitoring of stormwater management solutions. We propose to use just 'SWMM’ as the solution (in full: storm water monitoring). TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 31 www.transformar.eu The impacts monitored are (i) Flood Vulnerability (ii) Water Quality (iii) Social Acceptance, and (iv) Economic Costs. The report defines solution sensitive indicators and presents indicators chosen for monitoring. All four solutions have novelty in the city of Lappeenranta. URB is a NBS which is built for the first time in this city, and the biofilter media has a new structure containing biochar and gangue (limestone mining) crushed fraction. Monitoring of URB provides real-time data that is utilized together with laboratory analysis to provide information about the volume flows, water quality and emission load. This requires computational correction and modelling (see Chapter 3.3.) to be integrated into the digital platform of the city. The digital platform is utilized in citizen application (CAF). In addition to the URB, the drainage influent flow is monitored and measured aiming to provide novel information to city planning about the seasonal and precipitation wise variation. Utilization of public cameras for precipitation estimates provides novel tool for street maintenance and real-time warnings. Principle concepts of innovations are presented in this report broadly since the implementation of the solutions is not completed. 3.1. Context Infographic Objectives Objectives of the demonstrator: (i) Urban surface runoff and flood mitigation, mitigation of the risk, (ii) Addressing the conveyance runoff water pipelines capacity issues, (iii) Increasing environmental awareness of emission load to recipient and groundwater, and mitigation of the load caused by the runoff, (iv) Increasing accessibility of data to all stakeholders via real-time monitoring and novel data, (v) Facilitation improvement of the choice of alternative options, e.g., green infrastructure, (vi) Increase awareness of stakeholders on climate change impacts on local level and region. Table 1 presents problem statements and how they are related to the solutions demonstrated. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 32 www.transformar.eu Table 1 Problem definitions and objectives in relation to solutions demonstrated. Problem definition and objectives URB SWMM CAF CEI • Increased flood risk due to increased rainfall and temperature in winter and spring: urban surface runoff and flood mitigation, mitigation of the risk x x x • Increase of peak events in precipitation: addressing the conveyance runoff water pipelines capacity issues x x • Environmental assessment of emission load to recipient lake and groundwater caused by runoff and infiltration: increasing awareness, mitigation of the load x x x • Adaptation relevant data and information availability to all stakeholders: improvement to present state via realtime monitoring and novel data x x x • Facilitation of the choice of alternative options, e.g., green infrastructure: increase awareness of stakeholders x x x x • Climate change impacts in this region: Increase awareness of stakeholders via empirical data and forecasts from reliable sources. x x Geographical description Lappeenranta (61-06°N, 28-19 °E) is a Finnish city with a population of 73000 covering an area of 1,724 km2 situated in the region of ‘South Karelia’ (aka. Etelä-Karjala) on the south-eastern frontier of Finland, 30 kilometres away from the Russian border (Figure 4). The city is located on the shores of Lake Saimaa, which is the biggest lake in Finland and the fourth biggest lake of Europe. The city’s main water intake is the lake water, which a decade ago was polluted by the proliferation of algae. Since, water conservation has been a major area of interest for the city. According to the latest national water quality classification (Finnish Environment Institute, 2019), the water quality of the Western Saimaa is fair to intermediate. The objective is good ecological status. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 33 www.transformar.eu Figure 4 Lappeenranta’s boundaries within South Karelia in relation to the map of Finland The city centre is located on the First Salpausselkä ridge, which is an ice-marginal formation laid down by the last Ice Age. Salpausselkä is mainly formed of sand and gravel and holds massive reserves of highquality groundwater. According to the Köppen climate classification, Finland has a continental subarctic/boreal climate and Lappeenranta has a southern-boreal climate. The city’s climate is influenced by Salpausselkä, the lake areas of Saimaa and Laatokka (in Russia) and the Gulf of Finland. Typical of the city’s climate are four distinct seasons, each season lasting approximately three months. In Lappeenranta, winter is longer than summer. Precipitation has an annual average of 614 millimetres of which 40-50 % usually falls as snow. The snow cover typically melts in April and May which can contribute to flooding. In this context it is important to underline that the meltwaters are recognised to consist of large amounts of nutrients and heavy metals. These substances are mainly from prevention of icy roads and yards, and from vehicles, which are more polluting in winter due to corrosion caused by road salt. In addition, the rain or melting snow washes with it pollution from all other impermeable surfaces, such as roofs or construction areas. Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges For Lappeenranta, the Key Community Systems (KCS) that we focus on are water management and urban planning. Lappeenranta demonstrator will be implementing solutions to adapt to CC in these KCS described in more detail below: IWATER MANAGEMENT Climate change impacts on water in Lappeenranta could create new water-related challenges and exacerbate existing ones in light of changing rainfall seasonality, climate variability and extreme weather events. This is likely to have a series of ramifications on a range of economic sectors that depend and rely on water such as tourism, industry, agriculture, among others. Not to mention, water quality could be affected as heavy rainfall could lead to the dilution of polluted water, which makes treating it more TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 34 www.transformar.eu challenging and requires more costly and energy-intensive technologies. Therefore, addressing water issues and ensuring a sound water management is crucial for the city of Lappeenranta. IIURBAN PLANNING As the city of Lappeenranta is one of the major urban centres in the Saimaa region, urban planning needs to consider and adapt to climate change. Water from melting snow and flood water bring contaminants (e.g., oils, chemicals, microplastics, as well as organic and solid matters) which are likely to decrease the quality of water in the city and the lake. An adaptive urban planning could be a key to solve these issues and improve the living conditions of Lappeenranta’s citizens. The possible vulnerabilities and challenges caused by climate change in Lappeenranta key community systems was evaluated in the TransformAr pathways workshop by the stakeholders. Figure 5 summarises the climate change projections for Lappeenranta region (PIK 2022). It is to be expected that the winters will be milder but wetter, which will cause more load on the urban drainage system. In the wintertime the frozen soil is not so permeable , so flooding is expected to increase. Furthermore, climate change is projected to increase the number of heavy rain events, that can surpass the capacity of the urban drainage system. Figure 5 Summary of climate projections for the City of Lappeenranta (Source: PIK presentation during the WS 2) Based on these climate projections, hazards and vulnerabilities were assessed in the pathways workshop. The risk chains that have been developed in the workshop are presented in Figure 6 and Figure 4. The increased rainfall projections and the insufficient capacity of the stormwater pipe network leads to increased flooding risk and more harmful substances in the stormwater. In light of climate change, some opportunities may arise at the scale of Lappeenranta, including the increase of water availability as well as an increase in forest growth, crop yields and the potential of tourism due to milder weather conditions. This is important to underline as adaptation is not solely about increasing the resilience of the territory in the face of shocks and stresses but also entails profiting from opportunities that are likely to arise (Burch & Harris, 2014). TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 35 www.transformar.eu Figure 6 Risk chain for the sector of Water management for the City of Lappeenranta Similarly, a risk chain was created for the urban planning KCS and is presented in Figure 7. This assessment gives similar risks, but from a different perspective. Flooding is still seen as one of the main risks with the addition of droughts. Figure 7 Risk chain for the sector of Urban planning for the City of Lappeenranta State-of-the-art on adaptation in the demonstrator Adaptation policy in the demonstrator Finland’s National Strategy (2005), the National Climate Change Adaption plan 2022 , Flood Risk Management Act (No. 620/2010), and Land use and Building Decree enacted under the Land use and Building Act (132/1999) form the ground for City of Lappeenranta climate strategy. As summarised in the Finnish country fiche for the EU adaptation preparedness scoreboard, the NAP stresses that municipalities ensure the integration of climate proofing reviews into the planning of emergency preparedness and security of supplies. The NAP requires the joint regional offices (ELY-keskus) of the Ministry of Employment and Economy, the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Transport and TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 36 www.transformar.eu Communications and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to guide municipalities in boosting climate resilience. As further outlined in the Finnish country fiche, in 2017, the majority of Finnish municipalities implemented action on climate change adaptation. By the end of 2015, regional flood risk management plans were published for every significant flood risk area (21 areas) and implementation of identified measures is ongoing. The NAP further seeks to integrate adaptation multi-sectorally on a multi-actor basis. Moreover, adaptation is also taken into account in the Climate Act (which was also approved in 2015). The Climate Act maintains that national authorities need to promote the NAP in their actions, including - but not limited to - land use, buildings and construction, environmental protection and the use and management of water resources. Research and communication are also highlighted as necessary to complement these actions. The climate programme of the city of Lappeenranta for 2021-2030 forms the basis for the carbon neutrality target by 2030 and its long-term emission reduction targets. The climate programme is developed based on the reporting model of Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy (CoM), and as a result the Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan (SECAP) is created and reported to the Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy reporting platform. The city of Lappeenranta committed to conduct SECAP when joining the Covenant of Mayors in 2016. The risks and vulnerability of climate change as well as adaptation to possible risks were assessed for the climate programme, and the risk and vulnerability assessments were carried out using an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment method. Experts from different organisations of the city of Lappeenranta and closely related companies (e.g., energy supply) took part in workshops on risk assessment and vulnerabilities. The assessed adaptation actions are closely connected with the new climate program 2021-2030 and are reported to the Covenant of Mayors platform. The implementation of the climate programme for 2021-2030 is followed yearly through the Ilmastovahti website. The implementation and follow-up actions are connected to the Climate programme of the city of Lappeenranta. The City strategy (LPR2037) sets out its long-term operational and financial objectives According to the City strategy land use planning should aim to ensure that stormwater management considers the status and quality of water bodies where stormwater is discharged. In the strategy it is encouraged to use a wider range of methods for managing stormwater and increasing the use of NBS and on-site solutions. The construction of a new stormwater drainage system should be minimised. A stormwater management plan (Ramboll Finland Oy, 2021) was developed for the city of Lappeenranta to prevent problems caused by stormwater, such as flood damage and water pollution, and to maintain the natural water cycle, such as the water retention and groundwater recharge. The aim is also to manage stormwater as cost-effectively as possible. The stormwater management plan underlines the importance of promoting stormwater management consideration at all stages of development and construction (i.e., land use planning, building control and maintenance). The plan directs construction and design and provides guidance on a catchment-by-catchment basis and for each land use type. The city of Lappeenranta has projects and programmes to increase biodiversity in the urban environment, such as Meadow network project which, in addition to protecting biodiversity, encourages residents to participate in the design of their living environment, and a Biodiversity programme 2023-2033 which brings together measures to protect nature values and aims to improve the city's practices to become more ecologically sustainable and respond to the global nature challenge. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 43 www.transformar.eu Figure 12. Principle of the Citizen app and connections with StreetAI and existing feedback systems in both Lappeenranta and Gjøvik. Citizen app allows users to get up-to-date information on air quality, weather, stormwater quality, stormwater drainage system flooding and ongoing street works, among other things. Until now such informati NTNU on has not been available to citizens, except for weather data. Another important element is giving feedback. Since the city already has an existing feedback system that also allows sending pictures of concerns, the app's feedback will be integrated into the existing system as shown in Figure 12. The app supports other implementations of the demonstrator by linking NBS and SWMM together and sharing this information with the citizens. The solution is in line with the city strategy where it is stated that cooperation with citizens and other stakeholders is one of the values to be respected. CEI (Choice experiment) CEI: Additionally, LAPP will also conduct choice experiments for the stormwater management system (in T4.4) upscaling. The outcome will be models for integrating knowledge on stakeholder preferences for climate adaptation and related services into the design of new policy instruments and business models and the co-design and test policy tools as part of new adaptation standards jointly with stakeholders, through behavioural economic experiments in the different regions. For this specific case, the Gjøvik municipality will have 2 field trips to follow the implementation of such solutions to foresee a potential replication. Choice experiment is conducted both in Finland and in Norway focusing on stakeholders. The choice experiment provides information about citizens awareness and willingness to pay for NBS solutions. Initially, the survey was to be addressed to investors but due to challenges city of Lappeenranta is facing in implementing stormwater management measures in private land (see 4.3) and overlaps between CEI and other choice experiments implemented in TransformAr, such as T5.3.2, it was decided to focus on citizens, especially private plot owners. The outcome of the CEI should provide models on stakeholder preferences for climate adaptation and related services, and co-design of policy instruments and business models with stakeholders though integration of their preferences. According to the city’s Stormwater management plan private landowners are required to manage stormwater in their own yards as a primary method of stormwater management before it is discharged to stormwater sewers. So far, these systems, both NBS and underground stormwater storage solutions, TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 44 www.transformar.eu have mainly been installed on public buildings such as schools, large parking lots and for example on apartment building sites. The city has had difficulties in implementing this part of the Stormwater management plan, as the stormwater sewerage network covers almost the entire city, there is no stormwater fee and it has been easier and in principle less expensive for landowners to connect to the stormwater drainage system than to carry out the measures on their own land and at their own expense. The results of CEI are expected to be useful in addressing this challenge. Description of the expected innovations Previously four different solutions and how they complement each other and fit the overall strategy of the demonstrator. Each of the solutions is expected to produce some new information or innovation for the demonstrator and then be distributed to a wider audience. As each solution has different expected innovations in different fields, these have been collected Table . In some fields the innovations stretch across different solutions, indicating that combining information from different solutions results in the desired innovation. Table 4. Expected innovations. Aspects of innovation and added value URB SWMM CAF CEI Technical or technological innovation • Combining NBS implementation to street renovations • Assess performance of NBS to treat storm water • Utilization of sensors to monitor storm water • Utilization of public cameras to estimate precipitation X X X X X X X X X Innovation on monitoring • Combining information from laboratory samples and real time measurements to evaluate for example nutrient concentrations in the stormwaters. • Flooding and drainage capacity monitoring • Utilization of cameras in precipitation estimation X X X X X X X Innovation to city planning • Distributed stormwater management • Novel and real-time information from choices, their effects and citizen willingness X X X X X X X X Awareness on climate change and regional effects for citizens X X These possible innovations are presented here as quite general concepts, as many of the solutions are not completed yet and how well the expected innovations are acquired is not known. However, all four solutions have novelty for the city of Lappeenranta. For example, the NBS solution is the first to be built and innovations regarding how building should be done and planned have already been gained. The measurement campaign has the potential to provide plenty of novel innovations. Firstly, monitoring the NBS solution in real time and calibrating the data with laboratory analyzed samples. Secondly following the water volumes in the stormwater drains and combining that data with precipitation estimates gained from public camera imagery creates a new way to monitor the capacity of the drainage system and potentially give warnings about flood risks. Furthermore, the processed data and real time information about water quality can be distributed to the public through citizen application to increase awareness of climate change adaptation. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 45 www.transformar.eu 3.3.Expected impacts Overview of the expected impacts The expected impacts of solutions demonstrated are described in Table 5. All four solutions can be expected to have an impact on flood vulnerability, and social acceptance or acceptance in city planning. CAF and CEI can have long-term effects on water quality. However, in CAF and CEI the impact is not measured with indicators due to the nature of the impact. URB with monitoring system, and the influent together with the groundwater will be analyzed. This empirical information can be utilized together with existing water quality of recipient lake and wetlands to evaluate the impacts. Economic assessment and impacts in this frame will be done via empirical cost estimates and comparing to alternative solutions typically applied in Lappeenranta. Tables 5. and 6. describe the expected impacts and the indicators in detail. Table 5. Expected impacts of the four solutions. Expected impact URB SWMM CAF CEI Flood Vulnerability • Gathering runoff (stormwater) from streets and leading them to biofiltration will help free capacity from drainage and mitigate flood and drought risks. x • Monitoring volume flows and surface levels provides novel information and warnings. x • Distributed stormwater management mitigate flood risks x x x • Realtime estimates for precipitation via cameras provide local estimates and warnings x x Water Quality • Realtime monitoring of URB together with laboratory measurements provides information on runoff and groundwater quality. x • Biofiltering field utilizes nutrients and filters urban emissions x Acceptance • City planning gain novel information to support decision making and planning x x x x • Citizen's awareness of environmental effects of runoff and choices for mitigating the risks and impacts increase x x x Economic Costs • Solution costs are compared to traditional alternatives and reflected to benefits expected. x x x x Selected indicators The expected impacts of the four solutions will be described with indices and metrics shown in Table 5. The indicators for URB and SWMM are mostly calculated from the monitored water qualities and measured flows, with calibration from the laboratory analyses. In addition prior information and projected information for example on the rain events are utilized to construct the indicators. The CAF TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 46 www.transformar.eu solution is mainly aimed to provide information to citizens of the area, so most of the indicators will be determined from the user engagement. Table 6. The longlist of indicators. Solution T4.3.2 URB (NBS), T4.4.1 SWMM (NBS and digital solutions), Solution T4.1.2 CAF (Citizen application) and T4.5.3 CEI (Choice experiment) indicators for expected impacts with units. To assess the effectiveness of implemented solutions and monitor their progress, a tailored set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) has been defined for each demonstrator. The KPIs provide quantifiable evidence on the technical, environmental, and social performance of the deployed solutions. They are aligned with the overarching TransformAr objectives and reflect the specific context, data availability, and impact logic in each location. The following tables list the selected KPI for Lappeenranta. Each indicator includes a description, its source or method of measurement, associated solution(s), and thematic relevance (e.g. health, infrastructure, environmental sustainability). The KPIs are categorized by the nature of impact and are designed to support ex post evaluation, policy planning, and community awareness initiatives. Table 6. Overview of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Solution Expected impact Key Performa nce Indicator s (KPIs) Source/M easurem ent Approach Nature-Based Stormwater Solution Reduction in flooding events. Mitigating drought risk. Reduction in peak runoff levels (%) Real-time monitorin g via sensors Improved water quality, increased knowledg e of main water quality paramete rs. Water quality improvem ents (pollutant reduction %) Real-time monitorin g via sensors and water sampling campaign s Mitigating flood risk. Increase in stormwat Real-time monitorin TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 47 www.transformar.eu er retention capacity g via sensors Stormwater Monitoring Increased knowledg e and awarenes s of key stakehold ers. City planning gain novel informati on to support decision making and planning. Number of monitorin g sensors installed Sensor deployme nt tracking Improved knowledg e of flood risk. Real-time data accuracy and reliability (%) Data verificatio n & models Data from app Citizen App Citizen's engagem ent Number of citizen reports submitted App analytics and surveys Citizen's awarenes s of environm ental effects of runoff and choices for mitigating the risks and impacts increase User engagem ent metrics (logins, feedback provided) Increased knowledg e and awarenes Improvem ent in communi TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 48 www.transformar.eu s of key stakehold ers at different levels (public and private sectors, economic categorie s, citizens, etc.) ty awarenes s on flood risk (%) Choice Experiment Norway :1000 responde nts Finland: 1013 responde nts Survey analysis and economic modeling This research provides valuable insights into how to encourag e private investme nts in stormwat er managem ent (SWM) to address urban flooding risks. It will reveal residents' preferenc e of the SWM measures . These findings can help policyma kers Finland exhibits a higher WTP for risk reduction (up to €4,820 for a 75% risk reduction ), while Norway shows a stronger preferenc e for runoff reduction (up to €3550 per househol d for a 50% runoff reduction ). Aesthetic improvem ents are valued more in TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 49 www.transformar.eu design more effective incentives and SWM strategies that align with residents’ preferenc es, promotin g broader adoption, which will promote the collective actions from citizens and improving urban flood resilience . Finland (€1,257) than in Norway (€615). Note: The KPI table for Lappeenranta includes specific metrics for each solution (URB, SWMM, CAF, CEI), aligned with climate adaptation goals. These include indicators such as reduction in stormwater runoff volume, usage rate of the CAF app, behavioral shifts based on CEI outcomes, and green infrastructure effectiveness. KPIs are measured against baseline conditions established in 2023 and will be assessed periodically through 2025. All indicators were selected for their contribution to measuring combined ecological and community resilience. The originally proposed performance indicator—comparison of flood-related outcomes with and without predictive analytics—was not applicable due to the absence of an actual flood event during the NBS installation and operation phase. Consequently, real-world data for direct causal comparison could not be captured within the timeframe of the project. Baseline data Generation of official and local knowledge in Lappeenranta region is supported by three main institutes: The Finnish Meteorological Institute, The Flood Centre of the Finnish Environment Institute and Finnish Meteorological Institute (established in 2014) and The Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE).3 SYKE is principally in charge of collecting information on floods and their impacts. SYKE also coordinates action for the Finnish Long-Term Socio-Ecological network (FinLTSER) network which gathers researchers TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 50 www.transformar.eu and scientists working on related socio-ecological issues on platforms representing the major ecosystems such as marine, terrestrial, lake, sub-arctic and urban settings. SYKE has created a nationwide stormwater flood risk map to help municipalities better identify flood risks from rainwater and meltwater in urban and built-up areas. The map has been updated to reflect the actual situation, including the addition of drains to channel stormwater, for example under roads. The flood risk map shows flood water coverage and depth for two rainfall events; a very heavy rainfall event that statistically occurs once every 100 years and a much less frequent heavy rainfall event. The city of Lappeenranta has a hydraulic and hydrological model covering the entire stormwater drainage network, including catchment areas and their characteristics. The model allows for an analysis of the current network capacity and calculated overflow and flooding situations, as well as to design treatment methods for stormwater based on the characteristics of the area. The model will be used to assess impact of the solutions on the capacity of the stormwater drainage system. In Figure 13 is presented the baseline data for URB from hydraulic and hydrological model. The amount of storm water and the flowrates are calculated on the basis of the design guide in Stormwater management plan. Precipitation is 260 l/s/ha and duration of rainfall 5 minutes. Figure 13. Baseline data for URB before implementing the NBS (in green color). TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 51 www.transformar.eu The city of Lappeenranta has access to a cloud-based street and city information system StreetAI which collects, analyses, displays and distributes information about city and traffic environments. StreetAI also has information about e.g. local weather and air temperature, which if needed, can be combined with the measured data and information about run-off and flood waters. The aim is to utilize this existing system for data collection and analysis in TransformAr. In 2008, the Group for Adaptation to Climate Change was formed to monitor and promote the implementation of the adaptation strategy. The Monitoring Group on Climate Change Adaptation was formed in 2015 to continue this work, including governmental officials from the Prime Minister’s Office and the relevant ministries, agencies, regional and local actors, research institutes, fire and rescue services, and financial services. The monitoring group implements, follows-up and raises awareness on the NAP, but also seeks to encourage collaboration between relevant actors to promote action on adaptation. The Climate Act states that the implementation of the NAP is to be monitored and reported to Parliament every electoral term (this reporting is included in the annual climate report as well). Main databases available • Recipient water quality: Hertta (SYKE, Finnish Environmental Institute) • Green Reality Lappeenranta databases for runoff water quality. • Precipitation, depth of snow, temperature, humidity: Finnish Metrological institute database and monitoring stations. • City planning data bases for spatial use, and drainage systems Description of available data to complete the data provided by the project • Flood Vulnerability: Precipitation timeseries (cm/day) in Meteorological Institute database. City planning database of paved surfaces. Hydrological models for flows of drainage system. • Water Quality: Water quality in several wetlands monitored 2-4 times annually. Research campaigns with weekly quality and flow estimates. Short real-time quality campaigns. Recipient water body quality sampled by Saimaa water association 4 times annually, and with a real-time station. • Acceptance: City strategy; Green reality and city planning projects; Public regional events for citizens held in city of Lappeenranta. • Economic Costs: Investment and maintenance costs for main alternative solutions applied in Lappeenranta. Approach to monitor impacts Approaches to monitor the impacts are solution sensitive, and methodologies vary. For example, URB (NBS Koulukatu) impact to Flood Vulnerability is defined via empirical real-time water influent and precipitation in the catchment area. These form the baseline estimation that can be presented as m3/h or as cumulative sum of annually captured runoff volume. The real time precipitation is available at Metrological institute database, or it can be estimated via public cameras. Similarly, information is gained from selected manholes of drainage system. Flow volume and surface height in manholes are measured with sensors. This will provide information for city planning on flood risks, and results will be compared and completed with the existing hydraulic and hydrological models. Monitoring SWMM also provides estimates via video cameras on precipitation. This information can be distributed via CAF to citizens. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 52 www.transformar.eu However, the main indicator and impact of CAF and CEI are engagements of citizens and city planners that show acceptance of new NBS technologies. Figure 14 illustrates monitoring scheme of solutions to Flood Vulnerability. Figure 14 Overview of main methods applied in describing solutions impacts to flood vulnerability. Impacts to water quality are defined in solutions URB and SWMM. Figure 15 visualizes main methods. The fundamental idea is to measure real-time data with limited number sensors. This set of sensors does not include direct measurements for nutrients or pH due to the durability and maintenance costs of the sensors. Instead, these water quality parameters are measured in the laboratory from influent and groundwater samples. Models taking account the flow rate (expected dilution), turbidity and conductivity will be applied to estimate the emission load (kg/a) or improvement (%). Estimation will include comparison of runoff water captured to groundwater filtered through the biofilter field and recipient lake water. The goal is to keep the models as simple as possible. For most of the described analyses different regression models can be applied. The laboratory analyzed samples provide a way to calibrate and TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 59 www.transformar.eu Figure 16 - General map of the Gulf of Oristano TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 60 www.transformar.eu The southern wetlands of the Gulf are the Marceddì-San Giovanni lagoon compendium, which appears as a deep marine inlet artificially separated from the sea by a fishpond bridge and divided into two different wetlands: the Marceddì lagoon (900 ha), closer to the sea with brackish water, and the internal pond of San Giovanni (700 ha), characterized by freshwater inputs from the rivers Rio Mogoro, Rio Mannu, Rio Sitzerri, and from some artificial canals. The surrounding territory is dominated by the agricultural plain of Arborea on the north-east side, an expanse of regular fields bordered by the reclamation infrastructure (canals and roads), while to the west it is surrounded by the mountainous complex of Monte Arcuentu. The fishing activities in the MarceddìSan Giovanni lagoon are managed by the Consortium Coop. Riunite della pesca di Marceddì. The concession, granted by the Autonomous Region of Sardinia under the act rep. 1082/98 dated 07/07/1998, is currently renewed. Covering an area of 2610 ha, the fishing operations involve around 140 operators. Hydraulic interventions carried out in recent decades have significantly altered the original structure of the entire wetland system. These modifications have disrupted the natural water exchange conditions between marine and freshwater environments, leading to changes in the ecological conditions of the area due to sediment discharge into the water and impacting on the ongoing fishing activities. Figure 17 - Zoom on the wetland of the NBS implementation TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 61 www.transformar.eu Figure 21 - Extreme flooding event in the area Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges Sardinia is a located in the center of the Mediterranean region, and according to EEA (2017), is likely to be impacted by several climate forces that include, among others: sea level rise, an increase of maximum temperatures and heatwaves especially during summer; long drought periods interrupted by heavy and extreme rainfall events leading to severe floods, and extreme storm events causing coastal flooding. Droughts during summer are often associated with greater water demand from different competing sectors, leading to inter-sectorial conflicts and unsustainable overexploitation of water resources. Consequences of severe droughts have been particularly relevant with risks for limited freshwater supplies and the incurrence of large fires affecting not only forest ecosystems, but also rural/urban interfaces and the increase of coastal erosion risk and desertification. Flooding is a particularly crucial risk not only endangering human life and infrastructures, but also causing soil erosion and the transport of contaminants from industrial, mining and agriculture fields to natural and especially aquatic ecosystems. Changes in climatic conditions can alter agricultural productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of agricultural products, water supply and the hydrological regime, with implications for water resources availability. Increases in irrigation requirements are expected for the main crops cultivated in Sardinia Figure 20 - Fishpond bridge that separates Marceddì wetland from the sea Figure 18 - Landscape of the Marceddi Wetland Figure 19 - Landscape of the Marceddi Wetland TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 62 www.transformar.eu because of climate change. Moreover, water demand increases could derive from socio-economic changes (tourism, agri-food, and textile sectors, energy plants, agricultural settlements), urbanization and lifestyle changes, causing a serious concern. Focusing on the Gulf of Oristano, the coastal area faces a significant threat from inland flooding, especially during extreme rainfall events combined with marine storms. This endangers the population, infrastructure, and the local economic activities. The Gulf is characterized by its low-lying areas, which make it highly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea levels, coastal and inland flooding. Despite the high susceptibility of low-lying coastal zones to these hazards, the overall vulnerability of the region is mitigated by the robust ecosystem health and efficient drainage density, enhancing its resilience. Given the influence of climate change on the Gulf's water system and current patterns, an increase in water temperature in all seasons, a decline of winter salinity, pH levels dropping (acidification), and an increase in the presence of non-native species, among other effects. Looking ahead to the medium to long term (50 to 100 years), there is a likelihood of certain coastal lagoons disappearing due to rising sea levels. These changes will have adverse effects on the local flora and fauna and the distribution of fishing stocks, particularly concerning commercially relevant aquatic organisms. The full extent of these impacts on local socio-economic conditions remains difficult to predict. The traditional aquaculture activities are and will be significantly impacted by the extreme rainfall events that disrupt the balance between saltwater and freshwater in the lagoons, causing sediment deposits that impede water circulation. The alteration of parameters such as salinity, Ph, dissolved oxygen, turbidity is linked to a change in the state of the ecosystem and a decrease in fish stocks. The alteration of the water quality can increase the presence and proliferation of invasive species which pose a threat to native species and reduce ecosystem services. The solutions implemented within the TransformAr project focus on three Key Community Systems: Water Systems, Nature Conservation, and fisheries, which are vulnerable to climate impacts and are strictly related and positively influenced by COAST and SG. The conditions of biodiversity and habitats, already affected by intensive land use activities (agriculture, animal husbandry, industry, and mining), along with the hydraulic efficiency of the wetlands and river dynamics, are severely impacted by climate hazards such as coastal and inland flooding, coastal erosion, wetland and groundwater salinization. Coastal receptors, including beaches, river mouths, wetlands, terrestrial biological systems, and protected areas, are all affected by habitat degradation, biodiversity loss, and the emergence of alien and invasive species. Moreover, alterations in water quality influence fish stocks, leading to a reduction in fishermen's income. Extended drought periods could lead to increased water demand from wells or, where possible, a request for public water, which would then increase costs for farmers. Based on this information the Risk components (hazards, exposure, vulnerability) were assessed in the pathways workshop. What have been highlighted by the participants is that the main drivers related to climate change are the increase of temperatures and the changes in precipitation patterns, appearing as a general reduction of the rainy season and a concentration of heavy precipitation in short periods. These drivers are generating impacts such as flooding, drought and storm phenomena that are exposing the communities, territories, and local economic activities to a risk of important economic and environmental losses. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 63 www.transformar.eu Figure 22 - Risk chain of Oristano demo State-of-the-art on adaptation in the demonstrator Adaptation governance at the national level The Italian Climate Adaptation Strategy was adopted in June 2015 and targets several sector in its action on adaptation such as: water resources; desertification, soil degradation and drought; hydrogeological risks; biodiversity and ecosystems; health; forestry; agriculture, aquaculture, marine fishery; energy; coastal zones; tourism; urban settlements; and critical infrastructures. As listed in the Italian country fiche, to develop the NAS, the following background documents were prepared: • A national climate impact and vulnerability assessment of the national sectors • An analysis of the European and national policy framework for climate adaptation • Elements for a strategy document: 'Elementi per una Strategia Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici' (ESNACC). A public consultation process on its contents was closed in January 2014. The NAS provides guidance on how to address climate change in diverse socio-economic sectors and systems and it aims to: “raise awareness on the impacts of climate change; identify vulnerabilities and adaptation options for relevant natural and socio-economic systems, and describe opportunities that may be associated to climate change; promote participation of stakeholders in defining strategies and sectoral adaptation plans to make later implementation more effective; increase awareness about climate change risks and adaptation through a range of communication activities; specify methods to be used to identify the best options for adaptation actions while highlighting the co-benefits” (Grantham Research institute, 2022). TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 64 www.transformar.eu In 2017 Italy approved the Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC) (National Adaptation Plan - NAP) to support the implementation of the National Adaptation Strategy. The Directorate General for Climate and Energy of the Ministry for the Environment and Energy Security (MASE) developed the NAP (while preparatory work was done by national, regional and local institutions, as well as research centres). and it seeks to guide ministries, regions and local authorities to mainstream adaptation criteria into policymaking. Adaptation governance at the regional level Local authorities, regions, and central government, coordinated by the MASE, are expected to implement the NAS through specific adaptation plans. In 2016, the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA, 2016) carried out a survey on the development of climate adaptation strategies (and plans) at the regional level. The results saw that around 50% of regions (e.g., Sardinia, Calabria, Apulia) recognised the importance and multi-sectoral nature of adaptation in their governance models. As summarised in the Italian country fiche, some other regions were reviewing their regulatory measures (e.g., EIA) and planning tools (e.g. EU Structural Funds) to better integrate adaptation (e.g. Abruzzo, Molise), while other regions were promoting adaptation at the local level by supporting cities and municipalities who have joined the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (CoM), as territorial coordinators (e.g. Lazio, Abruzzo). The Lombardy Region has now approved its Regional Adaptation Strategy, and Sardinia has developed a Regional Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (RASCC) to (1) assess climate vulnerability and risk, (2) identify adaptation options, and (3) define a governance system for including adaption in regional plans and programmes (Spano et al., 2019) and stimulate tailored responses to specific local needs. Key elements of the Sardinia RASCC include: • Identifying the primary weather-induced hazard indicators based on the analysis of current and future climate conditions at a high spatial resolution. • Assessing territorial adaptability through the development of a methodology and the collection of indicators for calculating the aggregate adaptability capacity index. • Evaluating the impacts of future climate change on strategic sectors for the Sardinia region, using the latest scientific methodologies, particularly those of the IPCC (AR5, 2014), including the aggregation of specific indicators. • Selecting priority adaptation strategies by identifying and defining priority actions based on the identified impacts of climate change. • Identifying governance models for the implementation of adaptation measures. • Providing detailed indicators and related metadata, collected in the Regional Environmental Information System (SIRA), to support governance decisions in the implementation of adaptation actions. The regional strategy has been developed based on the five strategic axes of action proposed by the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (SNACC): • Enhancing current knowledge about climate change and its impacts. • Describing the territory's vulnerabilities, adaptation options, and any associated opportunities. • Promoting participation and increasing awareness, including integrating adaptation into sectorspecific policies. • Supporting awareness and information dissemination on adaptation. • Specifying the tools to be used for identifying the best options for adaptation actions. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 65 www.transformar.eu The RASCC recognizes governance as a key factor in shaping the adaptation process, since effective adaptation to climate change requires new approaches across all regional and local administrative levels and sectors. In line with the European and national strategies, this strategy emphasizes the importance of active involvement of local authorities in promoting adaptation actions and objectives related to climate change, considering the significant variations in impacts and effects on different areas of the region. Highlighting the importance of the development and implementation of new policies dedicated to adaptation to climate change, the strategy suggests preventing environmental risks through the promotion of specific policies for the integrated management of water resources (rivers, wetlands, etc.) at a district or basin scale, also in partnership with private stakeholders. Indeed, in recent years, climate change adaptation topics have started to permeate environmental planning and polices with increasing awareness and effectiveness. Below is a list of the main regional or local territorial planning and management tools that address climate-related issues and adaptation measures. SCALE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TOOLS POLICY AREAS Region PAI - Piano Stralcio per l’Assetto Idrogeologico (Hydrogeological Management Plan) The PAI serves as the primary knowledge, regulatory, and technicaloperational tool for planning actions related to soil conservation, defense, and enhancement, as well as the prevention of hydrogeological risks, including the mapping of flood-prone areas. This planning is based on the physical and environmental characteristics of the regional territory. PGRA - Piano di Gestione del Rischio di Alluvioni (Flood Risk Management Plan) The PGRA is the reference document for the management of flood risk, encompassing prevention and protection measures, as well as operational tools and governance mechanisms. Its purpose is to reduce the impacts on human life, the environment, cultural heritage, and economic and social activities PGDI - Piano di Gestione del Distretto idrografico (Management Plan of the hydrographic district) PGDI is the operational and management tool to implement a coherent and sustainable water protection policy (SRSvS) - Strategia Regionale per lo Sviluppo Sostenibile (Regional strategy for Sustainable Development) The strategy assesses various aspects of sustainability in our societies, from health and well-being to quality education, from ensuring decent work and economic growth to combating climate change and identifies specific goals and actions that create measurable impacts. Local Management Plan of Natura 2000 sites Reference document for the site-specific conservation objectives and measures COAST – Coastal Contract A voluntary act of shared commitment to improve the protection and implement an integrated management of the wetlands of the Gulf of Oristano (Ramsar and Natura 2000 sites). Piano Di Protezione Civile Per Rischio Idraulico A practical tool for everyone to be used by who will be directly involved in emergency management PAESC - Piano d'Azione per l'Energia Sostenibile e il Clima (Action Plan for Sustainable Energy and Climate) The program through which local authorities plan their actions to achieve the objectives set by the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (reduce CO2 emissions, increase energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources, etc.) Table 8 - Planning and management tools at Regional and local level related to CC TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 66 www.transformar.eu Adaptation governance at the demonstrator level Wetland management in Oristano is challenging. The fragmented governmental responsibilities impede the timely implementation of actions. The various types of protected areas, such as RAMSAR, Natura 2000 sites, Important Bird Areas (IBA) and Marine Protected Areas (MPA) are managed by different governance instruments and different public bodies, while in reality they are part of the same coastal system. The need for better coordination and communication among the various levels of governance, the need for more active involvement of local communities and the need for adaptive management led to the coastal contract, as a more unified and flexible governance model. 4.2. Description of solutions in TransformAr In Oristano, TransformAr will focus on two solutions: a governance solution for improving wetland management, and a NBS to restore and protect the lagoon and enhance the natural role of the wetland. The Coastal Contract Healthy and properly managed wetlands act as natural reservoirs that sequester atmospheric CO2, can serve as natural water retention areas during extreme climatic events. In order to enhance the integrated management of the wetlands in line with the objectives of the RASCC, the 11 Municipalities of the Gulf of Oristano, along with the Province, the Oristano Reclamation Consortium and the Regional Government, have undertaken significant achievement of this process with the signature of the Coastal Contract in 2021. This voluntary agreement aims to improve the ecological condition of water systems by implementing proactive measures. These measures are designed to mitigate the negative impacts of human activities, enhance water quality and circulation, and increase resilience to climate change. The signatories form the Coordination Group, the institutional body responsible for political decisionmaking and the strategic direction, which is supported by the Technical Secretariat for the implementation of the Contract. The Action Plan of the Contract contains projects at different scales and covers the following topics: • Participatory territorial governance and capacity building; • Improvement of the ecological status of water systems; • Protection of biodiversity and natural heritage; • Landscape requalification and enhancement of cultural heritage; • Green economy - towards a sustainable and responsible territorial development model; • Strengthening resilience by addressing climate change; • Communication and environmental awareness. Some of the activities outlined in the Action Plan have already secured funding and will be implemented in the coming years, while others are still awaiting financial coverage. Being part of the Action Plan allows for preferential access to new funding opportunities, either through the Region's new financial programming or through new regional and national calls. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 67 www.transformar.eu Within the TransformAr project, MEDSEA is playing a strategic role in scaling up and consolidating the Coastal Contract as an operational tool to promote wetland conservation and adaptation across Oristano Gulf. Several key activities have been carried out under TransformAr to support this goal: 1. Strengthening Participatory Governance A structured and inclusive participatory process has been activated to foster broader and more active engagement from local stakeholders—including public authorities, fishing and farming communities, tourism operators, and civil society. This process aims to ensure that all actors contribute to shaping shared strategies for wetland protection and climate adaptation, reinforcing the legitimacy and ownership of the Contract. 2. Development of the Local Wetland Observatory (LWO) One of the most significant contributions of TransformAr is the creation of the Local Wetland Observatory, a key action foreseen in the Contract's Action Plan. The LWO serves as a scientific and technical hub dedicated to: • Monitoring the ecological status and trends of wetlands in the Gulf of Oristano; • Identifying emerging threats and evaluating the effectiveness of conservation and adaptation actions; • Producing data-driven reports, maps, and factsheets to inform decision-making. Staffed by a multidisciplinary team with high scientific expertise, the LWO integrates data from both public and private sources and collaborates closely with the Technical Secretariat to ensure that scientific insights directly support the implementation and monitoring of the Contract. 3. Knowledge Sharing and Policy Support TransformAr has facilitated the dissemination of the LWO’s outputs to public institutions, private actors, and local communities, contributing to: • Informed policymaking, thanks to up-to-date scientific data that supports wetland management and climate resilience strategies; • Increased stakeholder awareness and engagement, recognizing wetlands as essential to the area's cultural and ecological identity; • Capacity building and advocacy, enabling communities to co-develop a shared vision for the territory and collaborate on sustainable development opportunities. Moreover, by supporting the replicability of the Coastal Contract model in other Sardinian coastal areas, TransformAr contributes to scaling up good practices for climate adaptation and wetland protection across the region. The Smart Gate and Nature-Based Solution Among the wetlands included in COAST there is the Marceddì lagoon and the San Giovanni pond, which represent a complex and articulated transitional ecosystem between the hydraulic and coastal marine environments, whose functionality is crucial in flood and storm control, climate resilience, and the maintenance of biodiversity. From an ecological, geomorphological, and sedimentological perspective, the critical issues of the San Giovanni - Marceddì lagoon and pond system, with evident implications for the environment and productivity, can be detailed as follows: • Disruption of water exchanges to and from the sea (including natural daily tidal flows) and limitations on the distribution towards the open sea of finer sediment fractions and suspended materials due to the construction of the Marceddì bridge. This aspect has led to the deterioration TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 68 www.transformar.eu of water quality in the lagoon and its productivity, as well as widespread problems of poor oxygenation and water turnover between adjacent basins and the sea. (see the 8.2 Baseline data for more detail). • Progressive silting of the internal basin of San Giovanni resulting from the construction of the embankment and the interception of continental water flows. While representing a crucial condition for the development of fish farming in the lagoon, the clear separation provided by the internal embankment between freshwater areas at the estuary and the rest of the lagoon leads to a gradual reduction in the depth of the estuarine basin, a decrease in flood buffering capacity, and the development of phenomena of anoxia related to limited water exchanges, especially during the summer season. (see the 8.2 Baseline data for more detail). In an attempt to address the highlighted issues, a NBS is partially under development with multifinancing, including support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) under the 6.5.1 action, managed by the Municipality of Terralba, and the development of a SMART GATE under the TransformAr project. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 75 www.transformar.eu -N.2 - multiparameter sensor (Dissolved oxygen level, Conductivity, pH, ORP, Temperature, turbidity) -Hydrometer (Piezometric level sensor with Immersion) -Dedicated data logger c) monitoring station San Giovanni Pond (mouth area): -N.1 multiparameter sensor (Dissolved oxygen level, Conductivity, pH, ORP, Temperature, turbidity) -Hydrometer (Piezometric level sensor with Immersion) -Dedicated data logger The instrumentation will be IP68 rated. All instruments will be resistant to the conditions of a marine environment. The devices will have uplink and downlink features. The remote communication must allow to: 1. Restart the sensors. 2. Change the frequency of acquisition on demand. The autonomy of the data acquisition unit should be at least 12 months. The sensors will be powered by a solar panel. The opening and closing of the SMART GATE will be managed remotely through the IT platform in most cases, or physically if required. Figure 29 - monitoring network and IT platform operation diagram TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 76 www.transformar.eu Description the expected innovation COAST and SMART GATE introduce innovative approaches to ecosystem management in the wetland areas of Oristano. They emphasize proactive measures and integrated governance, which represents a novel way to address environmental issues. The LWO serves as an innovative tool for real-time monitoring of wetland status and trends. The application of SMART GATE technology to regulate water circulation demonstrates innovation in water resource management within the ecosystem. The SMART GATE enables efficient and timely responses to changes in hydraulic levels, ecological conditions, and water quality. The remote-control system improves the effectiveness of water regulation and contributes to flood risk management, allowing for precise monitoring and control of the ecosystem with a significant focus on environmental conditions and fishery requirements. Furthermore, both solutions aim to foster a collaborative approach by involving public authorities responsible for water quality, flood risk, and ecological conditions, along with engagement with the fishing sector. This collaborative approach is innovative as it brings together various stakeholders to collectively address environmental challenges. 4.3. Expected impacts Overview of the expected impacts and related indicators Expected impacts in the implementation of the two solutions differ on a territorial scale for COAST and a more local scale for NBS (Marceddì and San Giovanni). The COAST project generates various impacts across different domains: Social Impact The project places a significant emphasis on social impact, aiming to enhance knowledge and awareness within the community. This is achieved through a series of participatory meetings involving stakeholders. The number of these meetings serves as a key indicator of the project's success in engaging different segments of the population. Technological and Economic Impact In terms of technology transfer and economic sustainability, the COAST project leverages factsheets to disseminate crucial information. These materials reach a broad audience, including individuals and managers, extending the project's influence beyond its initial scope. This dissemination contributes to the replicability of COAST practices on a regional scale, showcasing the project's technological and economic impact. Social and Economic Influence on Local Policies The active involvement of public authorities in the COAST project is a testament to its social influence. This commitment is reflected in the ongoing updates to the Local Wetland Observatory (LWO), demonstrating an economic investment in the monitoring and management of local wetlands. Together, these social and economic factors play a pivotal role in shaping and conditioning local policies. An additional measure of the project's success is the resilience of the local population. This indicator spans environmental, social, and economic dimensions, reflecting the overall effectiveness of the COAST project in fostering sustainability and adaptability within the community. Regarding the SG and the overall NBS project for the Marceddì and San Giovanni lagoon, reference is made to environmental, economic, social, and technological impacts. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 77 www.transformar.eu Environmental Impacts An important environmental impact of the project is the increased knowledge of key water quality parameters, facilitating a long-term assessment of parameter improvements compared to the initial state. The implementation of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) contributes to better water circulation management within the lagoon. This enhancement increases the ecosystem's flood regulation capacity, reducing areas damaged by coastal and inland floods and subsequently minimizing economic losses and cultural heritage damage. An additional positive consequence is the potential increase in fish catches both in terms of quantity and quality. It's essential to note that this impact is influenced by external factors, and its evaluation as a secondary indicator is necessary. Social Impacts In the implementation of NBS, it is considered important to highlight two aspects regarding social impacts: Creation of Synergies: The project fosters synergies among organizations with expertise in water management and climate change. This collaboration enhances the social fabric by bringing together diverse stakeholders to address shared challenges. Influence on Policies: NBS influences local policies, such as the COAST and wetland management plans, and extends its impact to the regional level with contributions to the Regional Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation. This showcases the broader societal influence of the project beyond its immediate implementation. Technological Impacts The implementation of the Smart Gate (SG) system introduces technological advancements, testing a conceptual model for regulating SG openings and closures. This model relies on reference parameters collected through the monitoring network installed in the lagoon. The technological impact is evaluated based on: - Efficiency: The response time to hydraulic variations is a key measure of the system's efficiency, ensuring a timely and effective response to dynamic conditions. - Control Precision: Precision in controlling openings/closures is assessed, emphasizing the importance of accurate water flow management within the lagoon. - System Reliability: The reliability of the SG system is a critical factor, determining the consistent and dependable operation of the water control system. The following table summarizes the expected impact and the related indicators: SOLUTION EXPECTED IMPACTS INDICATORS SOURCE COAST 1. Increased knowledge and awareness of key stakeholders at different levels (public and private sectors, economic categories, citizens, etc.) 1. Number participatory meetings with stakeholders List of meetings 2. Population that became more resilient Stakeholder map 2. Replicability on regional scale of the COAST experience 3. People/managers reached by the factsheet to disseminate COAST at regional level Stakeholder map 3. Local policies conditioned by the COAST and NBS implementation as best practice 4. Public authorities actively involved in the project Stakeholder map 5. Number of reports and factsheets produced and shared by the LWO LWO and TransformAr webpage TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 78 www.transformar.eu NBS 4. Increased knowledge of main water quality parameters 6. Data collected and analyzed through the monitoring system IT platform and monitoring system 7. Fishermen informed on the knowledge acquired Minutes of the meetings with fishermen and surveys Agreements signed 5. Improvement of the biodiversity and ecosystem integrity 8. Surface covered by NBS GIS analysis 6.Reduction of economic losses and cultural damage LWO reports 7. Increased efficiency of the lagoon dynamics in case of flood risk (hydrometric level) and poor ecological state of the lagoon, with a significant emphasis on fishing activities (salinity, pH, temperature…) 9. Enhancement of the water quality IT platform and monitoring system 10. Response time to hydraulic variations IT platform and monitoring system 11. Accuracy of aperture/closure control IT platform 12. System reliability IT platform Table 9 - Expected impacts and indicators Note: KPI 8 – Improvement of Stock Productivity This indicator, which relies on data from the Regional Department of Agriculture and Agro-Pastoral Reform – Fisheries and Aquaculture Service, could not be evaluated within the current reporting period due to delays in the implementation timeline of the solution. Specifically, the interventions impacting aquatic stock conditions (e.g., habitat restoration or water quality improvement) were not in place long enough to generate measurable biological responses in stock productivity. Definition and Interpretation: Stock productivity refers to the reproductive output and biomass increase of aquatic species in the monitored wetland or coastal ecosystem. It is typically assessed using fishery yield data (e.g., CPUE – catch per unit effort), species growth rates, or population surveys conducted before and after the intervention. In this case, evaluation would have required a minimum post-intervention monitoring period of 12–18 months, covering reproductive and growth cycles. Since this condition was not met, the indicator remains unevaluable at this stage. Future assessments can revisit this KPI once sufficient biological response time has elapsed. Baseline data 6 MEDSEA collected some preliminary data in the lagoon (before the implementation period of TransformAr), as preliminary studies for the drafting of the project jointly with the Municipality of Terralba. The comprehensive baseline data presented below is essential for understanding the rationale behind the development and implementation of Nature Based Solutions (NBS), encompassing various impacts such as enhanced knowledge of water quality parameters, biodiversity and ecosystem integrity improvement, reduction of economic losses and cultural damage, and increased efficiency in lagoon dynamics during flood risks and ecological challenges, particularly focusing on fishing activities. Bathymetry: Bathymetric survey, covering an area of approximately 830 hectares: Maximum depth reached: -3.68 meters below mean sea level (m.m.s.l.). Minimum depth reached: -0.11 meters below mean sea level (m.m.s.l.). 6 Source of data: Analysis within the “Integrated project for the redevelopment of ecological connections of the wetland compendium of S. Giovanni - Marceddì and the pond of Corru S'Ittiri”, managed by the Municipality of Terralba and developed by the project team composed by Criteria srl, Prima Ingegneria and Macro Design Studio. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 79 www.transformar.eu Figure 30 - Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Water temperature (°C): Figure 31 – Water temperature Summer period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 80 www.transformar.eu Figure 32 – Water temperature Autumn period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 81 www.transformar.eu pH Observing the figure below, it can be noted that the pH follows a clear spatial gradient. Specifically, the San Giovanni basin, and even more so the basins near the mouths of watercourses, exhibit significantly higher values (up to pH=9) compared to the mouth area. In the autumn campaign, the values show greater homogeneity. Figure 33 – PH summer period Figure 34 – Ph Autumn period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 82 www.transformar.eu Chlorophyll 'a': The indicator describes the concentration of chlorophyll "a" in surface waters, allowing for an indirect estimate of phytoplankton biomass, as it provides a measure of the main photosynthetic pigment present in microalgae. It serves as an effective indicator of the system's productivity. The concentration of chlorophyll "a" in water highlights the level of eutrophication in coastal waters. It is of fundamental importance for the application of trophic indices and turbidity indices, assessing the trophic characteristics of the water body and the state of ecosystems. Additionally, it is an excellent indicator for evaluating primary production and the trophic levels of the ecosystem. Figure 35 – Chlorophyll – Summer period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 83 www.transformar.eu Figure 36 - Chlorophyll – Autumn period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 84 www.transformar.eu Turbidity Figure 37 – Turbidity Summer period Figure 38 – Turbidity Autumn period TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 91 www.transformar.eu 5.0 Westcountry Region: Improving the agricultural-riparian interface in nutrient sensitive catchments in South West England Executive summary The Westcountry region demonstrator seeks to address the problems of diffuse water pollution and habitat loss relating to intensive agriculture, exacerbated by increasing rainfall and periods of drought caused by a changing climate. Westcountry Rivers Trust (WRT) are testing emerging ecosystem services markets as a mechanism to pay landowners to reinstate wetlands and riparian buffers along river corridors in three ecologically designated catchments where nutrient pollution has been identified as a serious problem. Outcomes are monitored using metrics relating to the broad range of benefits strategic habitat reinstatement can deliver. The benefits of flood mitigation, drought resilience, improved water quality and increased habitat deliver the cross sectoral climate adaptation identified through stakeholder workshops. WRT use a range of site-specific indicators to define appropriate baseline and assess the environmental and wider outcomes, with an emphasis on those valued in ecosystem markets: Water quality and biodiversity. The infographic of the Westcountry demonstrator is depicted below. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 92 www.transformar.eu 5.1. Context Infographic Objectives Climate risks and impacts in the Westcountry region include pollution, flooding, drought, and reduced development. Although climate change adaptation capacity is developing well within all sectors, the ability to integrate cross-sectoral delivery is still lagging. Following discussion with stakeholders in the agricultural, water industry and conservation sectors, the following risks were identified: • Water resource issues linked to climate change: seasonal flood and drought, impacting agricultural outputs and riparian habitat. • Reduced water quality due to sediment and nutrient loss from agriculture, amplified by low dilution rates from drought and soil run off from heavy rain, affecting sensitive habitats, fisheries, recreation and human health. • Planning hiatus due to poor water quality from excess nutrients, designated under Habitat Regulations until mitigation for sewage increases from new development can be provided. The objectives are to deliver nature-based solutions in the form of riparian buffers, floodplain wetlands and ponds that will capture sediment and reduce nutrient loading in rivers and increase water storage capacity and riparian habitat in the target catchments. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 93 www.transformar.eu Figure 43 Map of the South west of England showing project river catchments To improve sustainability and uptake of these solutions amongst landowners, compensation for longterm sacrifice of agricultural use along river corridors is needed. WRT will test the mechanisms of Phosphate credits and Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) credits, where housing developers pay landowners for long-term (30-80yrs) delivery of ecosystem services, releasing new development in the catchment. Geography of the Westcountry The demonstrator sites are all located in the south-west of England (Figure 1). Each site falls within a catchment designated as either a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) (Camel (Figure 2) and Axe) or Ramsar site (Somerset Levels (Figure 3) and Moors), where water quality and quantity issues have been identified. The catchments each have different topography, soil type and agricultural systems, meaning that different approaches to NBS are needed for each area. Figure 44 View of the River Camel in Cornwall (SAC) Camel Tone Axe TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 94 www.transformar.eu Figure 45 View of the River Tone in Somerset (Ramsar) Climate vulnerability, impacts and challenges The Westcountry is likely to witness drier summers and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts (Southwest Water 2021). High energy rainfall events can also cause mobilization of sediment and nutrients leading to water quality issues. The Meteorological Office highlights detailed impacts for the Southwest (Met Office UKCP) including: • More frequent intense rainfall and wind-driven rain causing river and surface water flooding. • Warmer wetter winters causing problems with crop management. • Hotter drier summers causing problems for water quality and supply. • Increase in extreme weather and disruptive events such as flooding, droughts, landslides or heatwaves interrupting or limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health. • Sea level rise affecting the viability of coastal communities and coastal infrastructure through flooding and erosion. These projections were supported by the modelling carried out by PIK for the Westcountry stakeholder workshops in spring 2022 for Work package 2. (Figures 4-7 below) TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 95 www.transformar.eu Figure 46 Summary of climate projections for the Westcountry (Source: PIK presentation for Workshop 2 WP3) using ISIMIP 3b DATA TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 96 www.transformar.eu Figure 47 Modelled precipitation change shows drier summers and wetter winters TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 97 www.transformar.eu Figure 48 Modelling shows reduced river flows in summer and autumn TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 98 www.transformar.eu Figure 49 Modelling shows increased runoff during late summer to winter, but with high uncertainty due to coarse hydrological models Adaptation within the demonstrator In 2021 Natural England, the UK government's statutory advisor for the natural environment, imposed a stop to all development in designated river catchments where water quality was failing targets due to nutrient enrichment. These catchments are now subject to Nutrient Neutrality (NN) planning rules. Locally, this means any new development must mitigate additional phosphates entering waterbodies via additional load on the sewage system. Mitigation can be either on the development site itself, or offsite, delivered through land use change elsewhere within the catchment. Off-site mitigation usually means reduced inputs from agriculture or work to improve sewage treatment by water companies. • The Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations 2017 translates the European Habitats Directive into UK law. It sets out measures for protection of natural habitats and wild fauna and flora. This is the legal basis for the Nutrient Neutrality ruling. Currently, nutrient neutrality policy is focused on land use change within the catchment area, using a calculator that assesses phosphate reductions based on nutrient export coefficients from different land uses. For example, changing from dairy farmland to woodland will deliver 0.47kg Ha-1 yr-1 phosphate mitigation. This approach does not recognize the enhanced benefits which could be achieved by focusing land use change along the river corridor. It identifies only constructed wetlands as a form of additional TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 99 www.transformar.eu treatment. Initially, WRT intended to develop Integrated Constructed Wetlands (ICW) on farms. However, there are difficulties with adapting this solution to diffuse pollution, with intermittent and variable inflows impacting on effectiveness. Alongside this, WRT identified issues around compliance with existing agricultural regulations (Environment Agency UK) and due to the high costs of land purchase when phosphate credits were not available at the outset. Therefore, alternative solutions such as wetland riparian buffers have been prioritised. Current evidence on the effectiveness of natural process led NBS to deliver multiple benefits is limited (Robotham et al, 2022). Through TransformAr WRT want to increase the evidence base for the benefits of NBS, including buffer strips and habitat restoration, within the region. Strategic implementation of this type of NBS would deliver multiple co-benefits addressing the other risks identified in the Environment Act (2021) including habitat loss, recreation and sediment loss to waterbodies. • Environment Act 2021: Aims to improve air and water quality, tackle waste, increase recycling, halt the decline of species, and improve the country's natural environment to make it more resilient to climate shocks. This environment act does not directly target adaptation, however ensuring the protection and the development of the natural environment increases the ability of the territory to overcome climate-related stresses (e.g., natural buffer zones, increased permeability, etc.). The desire to increase the evidence base for innovative NBS in the Westcountry demonstrator region and to deliver multiple co-benefits realised over long lead times are well aligned with the overarching objectives of the Climate Change Act (2008). Within the CCA there is a legal requirement to develop a National Adaption Programme (NAP) with objectives relating to climate adaptation and time-scaled proposals and policies to meet those objectives. The NAP sets out four overarching objectives to address the greatest risks and opportunities arising due to climate change: • Increasing awareness; • Increasing resilience to current extremes; • Taking timely action for long-lead time measures; • Addressing major evidence gaps Despite the policy relevance and growing interest in NBS, the knowledge base is lacking evidence for lowland catchments typical of those in the south of England (Lockwood et al., 2022). There is also uncertainty over the sustainability of water storage in such features, where rapid sediment deposition could diminish storage capacity over time (Lane, 2017). Thus more evidence is required to support the delivery of wider benefits from NBS which underpin agri-environmental policies such as the UK Government’s Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS), outlined in the Agriculture Act (2020). Alongside the Green Finance Strategy (2023) this could provide farmers with financial incentives for adopting NFM and other NBS, thereby increasing uptake more widely (Bark et al., 2021). 5.2. Description of solutions in TransformAr Overview of the solutions WRT are developing several NBS across three river catchments: The Camel, the Axe and the Tone. Some use familiar methods, and others are more experimental, for example using ponds and willow beds to TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 100 www.transformar.eu harvest phosphates. The ambition was to test a range of solutions across different parameters. The NBS primarily deal with diffuse agricultural pollution prior to the point of entry to the main water course. The project looks specifically at funding streams to pay for both the initial (capital) cost of delivery and the long-term maintenance and compensation to the landowner for loss of agricultural productive land (revenue). The creation of this type of farm Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) is not expensive, but landowners are unwilling to sign up in the numbers needed to have a significant effect without fair payment. Nutrient Neutrality provides an opportunity to leverage investment from developers to pay for strategic nutrient mitigation on farms. There are currently 10 NBS sites across the three catchments at different stages of delivery for TransformAR. These include farm ponds (Figure 8), floodplain wetland habitat restoration, sediment traps, and filtration or buffer strips. These types of solutions were also highlighted by stakeholders as part of the adaption pathways co-creation workshops. They can be created individually or be combined and used in treatment trains according to the specific site conditions and pollution load. One aspect WRT are testing is what level of maintenance is required at a minimum to keep the intervention functioning as designed. The landowners involved often do not have the time or resources to carry out regular or complex maintenance activities. WRT are also testing better ways to identify suitable strategic sites, using a combination of GIS analysis, site survey and chemical analysis of water and soils. Ultimately, the deciding factor is landowner willingness to take part. This work complements existing WRT projects, primarily funded by the regional water company (Southwest Water) and National and Local Government, encouraging good environmental practice amongst farmers to reduce pollution at source. This includes the Devon and Cornwall Soils Alliance which offers one-to-one advice on soil and crop management to reduce risk of soil runoff. The Southwest Water Upstream Thinking project also provides grants to farmers in drinking water catchments to upgrade farm infrastructure such as roofs and tracks. Increasingly, this project is introducing green infrastructure such as cross slope hedging, woodland planting and leaky dams in streams and ditches. Southwest Water is also now funding farm advice on nutrient budgets in the Camel and Axe catchments due to the Nutrient Neutrality issue. Figure 50 Sediment being removed as part of restoration of farm pond for TransformAr TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 107 www.transformar.eu agricultural survey and farm management data. The updated greenhouse gas (GHG) calculations closely match the latest UK Agricultural Ammonia and GHG inventory.” https://adas.co.uk/services/farmscoper/ By running the existing the situation of a farm, or parcel of land against a mitigation scenario, it is therefore possible to calculate predicted P reductions. An example is provided below. Axe example calculation Area: 1.2ha (3 ac) taken out of dairy production. Proposed plan: Land use change for several smaller fields with combined area of 1.2 ha (3 ac), changed from dairy grazing into no livestock. Farmscoper output for dairy land use is: 0.8kg By changing the land use to no livestock the Farmscoper output becomes: 0.17kg Based upon the above figures (0.8 – 0.17kg P) this equates to an annual saving of 0.63 Kg P/year (0.53 kg P/ha/year). TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 108 www.transformar.eu Limitations of capability and use The scale at which Farmscoper is employed is potentially a very significant limitation. Farmscoper was developed as a policy tool for answering questions at landscape scale, but which was able to utilise and produce data at farm level. The input requirements were based around data that would be available at such scales, and which the models used to predict the pollutant losses would be sensitive to. Due to the time required for model simulations, Farmscoper relies upon a database of previously calculated pollutant losses to generate a ‘baseline’ pollutant load. In order to generate this database and develop the baseline, and to characterise the impacts of certain mitigation methods, it was necessary to make a number of assumptions about farming practice, such as the timing of fertiliser applications. These assumptions were generally based on national surveys of farm practice data, and thus reflect typical behaviour across the landscape, rather than the behaviour for any specific farm. The source models used to populate the pollutant loss database (i.e. to create the baseline) were applied at 1km2 resolution across England and Wales, using local data on soils, slopes, field connectivity, rainfall etc. and the results aggregated for the 3 soil types and 6 climate zones available within Farmscoper. The predicted losses thus represent a typical environmental situation (for the soil type and climate zone selected) and cannot perfectly replicate the specific conditions that may be found in a field or even across a farm.” Farmscoper also has no ability to account for pollutant sources which occur off-farm, i.e., from upstream/higher in the catchment. This misses the opportunity for one farm to act as the buffer/mitigation for another farm/ another source. In this situation on-the-ground testing needs to be employed to both predict and acknowledge any P reduction. Farmscoper is now hosted on the ADAS website: https://adas.co.uk/services/farmscoper/ Innovation in monitoring and evaluation of co-benefits. WRT are developing monitoring techniques that are appropriate for the solution and that can be utilised more widely. Monitoring nutrient capture and influx is more challenging at sites where there are inconsistent flows in water impacting nutrient concentrations. Therefore, options including nutrient testing of soil and sediment will also be undertaken. Where needed, modelling of phosphate capture can also be used to validate and verify solutions. Due to the wider roll out of these solutions, monitoring needs to be appropriate and cost effective to ensure the credit scheme is viable. For habitat improvements the Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) 4.0 metric https://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/6049804846366720 can be used to establish a baseline and determine the improvements in habitat after implementation. BNG can also potentially be stacked with nutrient neutrality and offer an additional market to the landowner. The use of Citizen Science is an innovative way to generate a broad understanding of water quality across catchments and allows for high risk or priority areas to be identified, which can then be targeted for solutions implementation. Innovation in contracts and financing mechanisms. Each catchment and area that is involved in nutrient neutrality has a separate market system, as there are differing local authorities, developer demand levels and capitalisation models. For the Axe catchment, a digital solution is being developed to create an online nutrient trading platform. The Natural Capital Marketplace (NCM) is hosted by a registered charity; the UNESCO North Devon Biosphere Foundation (Biosphere Foundation). The platform can be viewed here: https://app.naturalcapital.market/ TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 109 www.transformar.eu WRT are involved in an Environment Agency nutrient neutrality project on the Axe in which the Biosphere Foundation are a partner and are offering to deliver their contribution to develop the nutrient market on NCM at cost. The platform has the advantage that it offers landowners options to create Carbon Credits and Biodiversity Net Gain income in addition to nutrient credits (where there is additionality on site or elsewhere on the holding). It also offers developers a single market for their Nutrient Credit, Biodiversity offset and Carbon offset needs. Importantly the new nutrient market will integrate all the learning from existing trading schemes, within the UK and internationally, supported by NE National Teams and the newly formed Nutrient Programme Team in the EA. A key element of this work is demonstrating the benefit of any Natural Capital product and nutrient credits will be no different. This is termed Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV). The North Devon Biosphere offers to design the MRV element of the nutrient trading model at cost using their Smart Biosphere programme illustrated here: https://biospherefcic.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer3d/index.html?id=768524c5399e463490f3a f18c748bd98 5.3. Expected impacts Overview of the expected impacts Achieving Nutrient Neutrality The primary objective of Nutrient Neutrality is to make the issue of nutrient pollution in designated catchments no worse. The wider environmental objectives in this project are to deliver the best outcomes for nature and the region’s rivers, by working strategically to restore river corridors and surrounding catchment function and provide a range of environmental co-benefits. To achieve this, multiple landowners need to be supported to implement a range of NBS to reduce soil and slurry entering watercourses; to reduce the nutrients introduced to farming systems and re-use nutrients more efficiently. In appropriate locations, NBS can also attenuate surface water flows and increase infiltration across the system. This reduces the volume of surface water entering the combined sewerage system and reduces pollution from overflow spills. These primarily environmental impacts will be captured through a range of quantitative and qualitative monitoring metrics and data. Each solution provides a range of primary and secondary impacts, depending on the design and location of solutions. The primary focus is to reduce phosphate pollution these solutions, particularly where funded as part of the nutrient credit scheme. Co-benefits include: • ‘'Slowing the flow’ reducing localised flooding; • Improvements in habitat and biodiversity value; • Carbon capture, depending on the intervention type; • Wider water quality improvements through capturing sediments and other pollutants; Together these environmental improvements help to build resilience within catchments. Economic Development in the Catchment Through TransformAr new nutrient credit markets are being developed which can provide an additional income for landowners and farmers. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 110 www.transformar.eu In the Camel catchment WRT are working with the local planning authority to create a nutrient credit scheme (Figure 14). Here WRT are liaising directly with farmers and landowners and with the local planning authority, who are capitalising the scheme, through CIL (Community Infrastructure Levy) funds. A key element in the formation of credits, is to find an investor who is willing to capitalise the credit through upfront investment, this can then be recovered when the credit is sold to the end user. Figure 56 Schematic and flow pathway in the Camel catchment for nutrient creation. Bilateral marketing of nutrients is becoming commonplace and in recent years online platforms have been used to attract and contract with multiple providers such as farmers. This can reduce cost and alleviate market blockers. Some of the existing platforms include those in Somerset, Avon and Solent catchments hosted by ENTRADE; https://www.entrade.co.uk/our-markets/ In the Axe catchment, the nutrient credit model is slightly different as it will be using the Natural Capital Marketplace (outlined in Section 5.2.3) as a platform to market nutrient credits, alongside other credits that are available. In the Axe, the route for capitalisation is less clear, however there is potential for this role to be undertaken by the regional water company. A schematic of the current scheme in the Axe catchment is shown in Figure 15 below. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 111 www.transformar.eu Figure 57 Flow diagram for the creation of nutrient credits WRT are working with the North Devon Biosphere Foundation who are developing the nutrient market on NCM. By facilitating development these credit schemes support a stable local economy, with affordable homes prioritised for local populations. Tourism is the biggest economic sector in the region and estimated to support one in five jobs in Cornwall (Local Government Association 2019). The sector is dependent on the beautiful natural environment in the region, including coastal, countryside and moorland scenery. The local economy therefore requires careful stewarding of natural assets, and there is a reputational risk from pollution of both inland and coastal bathing waters. Raising Climate Awareness and Resilience through Landowner and Community Engagement WRT has an established history of acting as an ethical and trusted broker for the delivery of payments for ecosystem services. For almost 15 years WRT have worked with the regional water company to act as a broker with landowners and communities (Figure 16), though initiatives such as Upstream Thinking. https://wrt.org.uk/project/upstream-thinking/ TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 112 www.transformar.eu Figure 58 Ethical Broker example with Water company South West Water and WRT WRT have adopted this ethical broker position regarding Nutrient Neutrality in the Westcountry Region, to ensure that there is strategic delivery of interventions and actions. Without this, developers may pay to fallow productive farmland, in unsuitable locations, which will not have the greatest benefit for nutrient reduction for the catchment and may impact on food security. New markets are often unregulated, therefore it is important to design the best solutions and offset schemes where possible, to provide a broader range of benefits including climate change adaption. Through the broker role, WRT will work with investors, regulators, communities and catchment partnerships to develop solutions that provide the greatest benefit overall. Figure 17 below, highlights how an ecosystem services approach can be used to as an alternative to the traditional agricultural production model. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/payments-for-ecosystem-services-pes-best-practice-guide Figure 59 Payments for Ecosystem Services UK DEFRA (Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs) guidance on establishing and setting up PES schemes and the need to understand the current business model and value of verification is shown in Figure 18. TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 113 www.transformar.eu Figure 60 Illustration from UK DEFRA guide to development of PES scheme WRT has used PES methodology, particularly with water quality issues, to pay or incentivise landowners to change practices or minimise impacts on water quality. Investment from Water companies to fund these improvements is now part of the investment business plan for each funding cycle and has been adopted much of the UK, with Rivers Trusts often acting as the broker, due to their existing relationships with landowners. Through WRT’s wider stakeholder involvement there have been examples of community groups opposing new developments in their catchments due to environmental concerns, including opposing the concept of nutrient neutrality outright. Engaging with community groups and developing an active programme of Citizen Science in the selected catchments enables greater community awareness of the benefits of NBS. This includes the wider co-benefits this approach can achieve above the simplistic land-fallowing often favoured by developers. These societal impacts can be evaluated through the public attendance at workshops and monitoring social media posts. It is expected that many of the benefits and impacts from innovative NBS delivery and novel new nutrient trading schemes will be fully realised after the timescales of the project. WRT will continue to build its longstanding work delivering NBS and seek future funding both to evaluate the legacy of the project and implement the evidence-based outcomes more widely. Selected indicators There are three main areas where a successful nutrient neutrality scheme would have positive impacts. These are: Environmental improvements within the selected sensitive catchments; Economic benefits both to communities from unlocking development and providing alternative income for farmers and land managers; And finally social benefits of increasing engagement and understanding of rivers and ecosystems, including threats and resilience. Environmental improvements Expected impacts: TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 114 www.transformar.eu Should the land use change be sited strategically in areas adjacent to river corridors, there will be the greatest direct benefit to the environment. The aim of the scheme is to reduce nutrients, primarily phosphates, entering rivers and affecting water quality. The WRT interventions rely on increased hydraulic residence time improving nutrient retention in the riparian zone, where vegetation improves in situ denitrification and phosphate removal rates. Water quality is subject to spot sampling across the affected catchments by citizen scientists (CSI) and WRT staff. It may be hard to demonstrate a direct link with interventions at this scale on catchment water quality over this project timespan, but up and downstream sampling of intervention sites has commenced. There are also co-benefits to habitats and species from this approach which WRT will monitor through habitat surveys (species richness) and drone footage (habitat extent). Riverfly and fisheries surveys will provide information about the quality of in-river habitat. WRT will also monitor ecological function through soil analysis at intervention sites. Samples will be visually assessed for health based on structure, infiltration rates and samples will be sent to a lab for soil organic matter and nutrient content analysis. Economic Development in the Catchment Expected impacts: The initiation of a trading scheme allowing housing development to proceed by mitigating additional sewerage through land use offsets will overcome the planning hiatus in the affected catchments. New housing is needed for local people who provide a workforce for sustainable economic growth in a region where holiday homes and tourism are a dominant economic sector. Studies (Lichfields, 2018) show that each £1m investment in housing development supports around 19.9 direct jobs, and 15.6 indirect jobs, as the construction industry has an indirect and induced employment multiplier of 2.23 (Lichfields, 2022). This impact is more complex to assess but the value of P offsets obtained can be expressed as housing units. The value of capitalisation in (£) and value of credits traded can also be used. Also, the number of landowners and investors/developers brought in as part of the scheme. A set of metrics around this can be established as a way of indicating the impact. There will be wider economic benefits including the protection of tourism and recreational value. Economic benefits to farmers in payments for ecosystem services will be measured in the financial value of BNG and P Credits obtained. WRT are providing support with nutrient budgets on farms, leading to financial savings from more efficient use of fertilisers. In addition the land use change and interventions on floodplains will help retain nutrient rich sediments which are a valuable resource to farmers but a pollutant in rivers. Depth or volume of sediments captured at intervention sites will be measured, along with the nutrient content via lab analysis. Landowner and Community Engagement Expected impacts: This will focus on increasing wider community awareness and understanding of river systems and threats, promoting the benefits of water use awareness and drought resilience. The success of community engagement activities is monitored and evaluated though quantitative, qualitative and narrative approaches. Metrics can include sign-ups to the Westcountry Citizen Science scheme, numbers of active volunteers and retention and numbers of volunteer surveys. Attendance at participatory research events and workshops offered by WRT and the motivations for this and the TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 115 www.transformar.eu outcomes and actions from those workshops. Higher-level engagement through community groups working with WRT to develop new Citizen Science methodologies and development of co-funding streams to drive environmental outcomes (water quality and resources) which have been identified as important by the community, including landowners and farmers, is also indicative of increased awareness of, and action for, climate resilience. Baseline data Environmental Indicators In the UK there is no central database of all water quality data thus any existing available baseline data must be extracted from a variety of sources subject to availability and access. Natural England base calculations of phosphate loadings in priority Nutrient Naturality catchments using data available in the Environment Agency Water Quality Archive (WIMS) database (Wood et al 2022). Ideally at least five years of site-specific baseline data is required prior to the delivery of NBS interventions to properly evaluate the impacts on diffuse pollution in a catchment and funding timescales scales rarely allow for a truly empirical approach to generating baseline data. To augment the currently available data sets a programme of monthly spot monitoring was established in 2022 in both the Axe and Camel catchments which encompasses a range of water quality parameters depending on the specific study site. These include: temperature, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, turbidity, nitrate and ammonium, dissolved organic matter (CDOM), optical brightening agents and tryptophan. Please see the Axe Scorecard in the Appendix for initial outputs from this sampling. Sites are chosen carefully using GIS mapping and local knowledge to monitor the main rivers and their tributaries and to capture inputs from diffuse and point source pollution. This approach will build a strong data set of baseline data across the catchments and help to identify potential sites for NBS interventions. The data is stored in the Cartographer integrated monitoring, mapping, and data interpretation platform and downloaded for additional analysis and reporting. In addition, WRT has collected the first set of electrofishing and botanical survey results on selected sites. This data will help to ascertain whether we have achieved BNG within the demonstrator sites, as well as improvements in habitat and water quality. Economic Indicators Due to the novelty of nutrient credit schemes in the UK, there is no current methodology for assessing the total economic impact generated. Baseline data on the economic impact of the affected activities (housing development, tourism, etc) is also highly diffuse. Therefore, a range of sources & methods must be used to assess the total value generated. The most direct economic impact will be land value change, which can be used to ascertain the total value of credits to landowners. Baseline data for current capital flows/HA within demonstrator sites can be found using the NEVO modelling tool. Developed by the University of Exeter, this publicly available model enables analysis of existing land use and value/ha/year, spatially resolved to 2km2. Whilst NEVO doesn’t currently offer land use conversion values to account for water-quality related NBS, when compared to the ultimate value of credits traded, it will be possible to ascertain the value of land use change. In addition, baseline data on existing nutrient budgets can be obtained from landowners to understand the additional financial benefits of NBS, as safely re-using nutrient-rich sediments captured by interventions TransformAr Deliverable 5.8 116 www.transformar.eu reduces the amount of investment needed in fertilizers, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of land use conversion. The housing and development sector is most significantly affected by the creation of nutrient credits, however “due to the scale and complexity of the house building industry, there is no single source of data that provides comprehensive information about its day-to-day economic activity and operations” (Lichfields, 2018). Baseline data for the current economic value of housing within the demonstrator site catchments must therefore be extracted from a variety of sources. Baseline data on the estimated economic value of Housing Association homes in the region can be found using the National Housing Federation’s Local Economic Impact Calculator. This tool provides both baseline data on the Gross Value Added (GVA) of social housing, aggregated by region, as well as future projections based on predicted housing developments. As there will be some social housing implicated in the development released by nutrient credits, once exact numbers are known, the tool can be used to provide information about the contribution of those properties to the local economy. However, social housing only contributes 15% of the total economic value of housing in the UK, with private development contributing 85% (Lichfields, 2018). Baseline data on the economic value of existing private developments is not currently available regionally, however, combining the housing development and employment targets outlined in Local Plans (e.g the Cornwall Local Plan, 2021) with available metrics on job creation, tax revenue and local infrastructure, it will be possible to calculate the value generated by new housing developments in relation to their contribution to existing targets. Figure 19, table showing national value of public or ‘social’ housing vs. Private housing to the economy, Lichfields 2018. Baseline metrics for the projected number of jobs created & supported by housing development; tax revenue generated; and the contribution of private development to community infrastructure are available from Lichfields 2018 study, The Economic Footprint of Housebuilding in England and Wales. Finally, in order to assess the value of each individual credit, baseline data on the capital fronted by investors to complete the works can be acquired, for future comparison with the ultimate value of credits traded. Social Engagement Indicators An active programme of Citizen Science monitoring across the Axe and Camel catchments provides high spatial density but low specification monitoring of water quality parameters including phosphate, turbidity, total dissolved solids and temperature. This opportunity will be extended to the Tone catchment when more NBS sites become available. As well as adding valuable baseline data over a wide geographical area, engagement with Citizen Scientists and local ecologically-focused community groups