INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF ACCIDENT RISK IN ROAD TRAFFIC

SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 85 INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF ACCIDENT RISK IN ROAD TRAFFIC D. Imamaliev1, N. Rajabov2 Tashkent State Transport University, Mirabad area, Adilkhodjaeva street, 1, 100067 Tashkent, Uzbekistan1,2 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17702835 Abstract. This article presents the findings of a study on the information and analytical assessment of road traffic accident risks in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The research employed a comprehensive approach to examine road accidents from multiple perspectives and incorporate the viewpoints of all relevant stakeholders. The methodology combined both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Special emphasis was placed on developing recommendations to reduce risks associated with human factors, vehicle condition, road infrastructure, and environmental influences. The application of the Smeed method helped establish the correlation between social and transport risks, shedding light on the current traffic situation that required particular attention. The Q-Cochran method was used to organize drivers' opinions, revealing the subjective aspects of risk perception, such as dangerous driving maneuvers, speeding, and poor visibility on the roads. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on expert evaluation, helped identify priority areas for improving road safety. The analysis identified critical factors, including the quality of road surfaces, the presence of clear markings and signage, and the adequacy of lighting in high-traffic areas. Proposed measures include the installation of additional passive safety features, the creation of pedestrian crossings with warning systems, and the introduction of intelligent traffic management technologies. Overall, the study's findings provide a solid foundation for developing an effective strategy to reduce road accidents. The suggested measures include enhancing driver education, upgrading road infrastructure, integrating innovative technologies in traffic management, and strengthening enforcement of traffic laws. Keywords: road accidents, road injuries, Smeed’s method, Q-test Cochran’s, Manchester Driver Questionnaire, analytical hierarchy method, expert panel. INTRODUCTION In the Republic of Uzbekistan, the economy and production, including the demand for road transport, are developing at a high rate, primarily the demand for road transport, which connects all sectors of a single economic mechanism. The interests of the development of society and production processes in the country require further improvement in the efficiency of vehicles, which in turn is directly related to improving road safety. In the world, traffic accidents are the second leading cause of serious injury after criminal injuries. During the year, up to 1.3 million people become victims of road accidents, and up to 50 million received injuries of varying degrees [1]. Lowand middle-income countries account for approximately 60% of global road transport and 93% of all fatal road accidents. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young people aged 5 to 29. In many countries, road traffic damage accounts for 3% of their gross domestic product [2]. Worldwide, the issue of improving road safety is considered relevant not only because of the importance of the health and life of every person in the country, but also because he suffers SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 86 financial losses in the economy due to long-term social losses. Therefore, in order to implement more effective measures to improve road safety, it is important to timely assess the risk of road accidents and reduce it, taking into account the characteristics of the factors of road accidents, the behavior of road users, and the interaction of factors. The results of a detailed study of the set of measures implemented in the field of road safety in our republic indicate the presence of a number of problems, in particular, the lack of effective models for assessing the risk of road accidents for optimal regulation of individual requirements for roads, vehicles, road users, as well as other infrastructure elements. According to the Road Safety Service of the Department of Public Safety under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, an average of 9-10 thousand accidents occurs annually, including more than 2 thousands of them with human casualties, including in 2021 compared to 2020, the number of road accidents increased by 43.24%, and the number of deaths in car accidents increased by 23.65%. In 2021, the number of victims of road accidents amounted to 2426 people (of which 263 children), and the number of victims - 9230 people (Figure 1). Identifying and analyzing factors that significantly affect the likelihood of road accidents and the severity of their consequences, as well as the impact on them by identifying general patterns and causes of road accidents, predicting the likelihood of their occurrence and assessing the severity of them, significantly increase road safety [3]. Figure 1. Information on road accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2009-2022. On average, about 2,000 people die on the roads of the Republic of Uzbekistan every year [4]. This indicator does not decrease over the years. According to the traffic safety service of the Department of Public Safety under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the death toll from accidents in 2021 increased by 23.65% compared to 2020 (Figure 1). As can be seen from the above indicators, the issue of the risk of death of people in road traffic is relevant, since it is necessary to take into account the basic safety requirements associated with the following risks on roads: the transport and operational condition of the road, roadside and dividing strips, traffic management equipment, road fences, road facilities, artificial lighting devices, etc. Since, today, road traffic injuries and mortality from a traffic accident are recognized as one of the most important problems of modern society. It is known that many factors affect the occurrence of road accidents. According to the Haddon matrix [5], the significance of risk factors in accidents is divided into three stages: before the accident, during and after the accident, and into three groups of factors: person, vehicle and environment (Table 1). SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 87 Table 1. Haddon matrix. Phase Factors dependent on: Human Vehicle and road Environment Before the accident Accident prevention Knowledge Behavioral attitudes Health problems Police control Roadworthiness Road lighting Brake system condition Compliance with the speed limit Road section and condition Speed limits Pedestrian structures and devices At the time of the accident Injury prevention during an accident Use of seat belts Health problems Availability and use of seat belts by passengers Other safety devices Emergency vehicle design Road objects preventing accidents After the accident Maintainin g life First aid skills Availability of health care Easy access to the scene Fire risk Availability of rescue services Traffic congestion It was revealed that the lack of modern information and analytical methods makes it difficult to correctly assess the current state of road safety in the Republic of Uzbekistan. This study addresses this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS In this study, we have selected the most new methods of information and analytical assessment of the risk of accidents in road traffic. When comparing the death toll from accidents with the public, the risk of death is relatively low. Not all segments of the population may be road users, but drivers are directly the main road users. This comparison shows us the dependence of the mortality rate as a result of road accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan on the number of direct road users (Figure 2). Figure 2. Relationship of social and transport risk. Most accidents are directly related to the human factor. Driving skills and driving style, that is, driver behavior, can be considered as the main factor in driving a car. Analyzing foreign research, it was found that the Manchester Driver Questionnaire method [6,7] helps to identify and assess important factors on the road through driver behavior. With this method, it is possible to SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 88 assess the factors influencing road deaths from the point of view of drivers as direct participants and major road users. Therefore, one of the main directions of this study is the method of information and analytical assessment of the risk of road accidents by conducting a survey among drivers. This approach involved collecting data directly from drivers through surveys and analyzing them to identify risk factors and improve road safety. Below are some of the main aspects and methods I have used in this direction [8,9,10]: 1. Survey project. Effective survey design is critical to generating accurate and meaningful data. A questionnaire was developed containing a range of questions relating to driver behaviour, attitudes, driving experience, risk perception and road accidents. The survey was designed to collect both quantitative (e.g., multiple choice questions, Likert scale) and qualitative (e.g., open-ended questions) data. 2. Sampling methods. Appropriate sampling methods are important to ensure that survey results are representative of the target population. Different sampling methods such as random, stratified, and quota were used to select different groups of drivers to participate. 3. Data collection. Surveys are conducted through a variety of means, including online platforms, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews. Each method has its advantages and limitations, and the choice depends on factors such as population size, available resources, and research objectives. I used online surveys and face-to-face interviews to collect data from different drivers. 4. Data analysis. Once the survey data is collected, it must be analyzed to obtain meaningful information. I used the method of descriptive statistical analysis to identify aspects, relationships and significant factors associated with the risk of accidents. Advanced statistical tools such as factor analysis or modeling by structural equations can also be used to study complex relationships between variables. 5. Risk assessment: Based on the results of the survey and data analysis, I developed risk assessment models that take into account various factors associated with accidents. By quantifying the level of risk, the relevant road organization specialists can prioritize and plan measures for the effective use of resources. 6. Recommendations and measures: The results of the survey and risk assessment serve as the basis for the development of targeted measures to reduce the risk of accidents. These recommendations may include educational programs, improvements to road safety infrastructure, or policy changes to address risk factors identified by survey data. Improving the information and analytical assessment of accidents is an important area of research aimed at improving measures to ensure road safety. Accurate accident risk assessments allow government, transport authorities and researchers to identify key factors influencing the number of road fatalities and develop effective prevention strategies. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) [11,12] is a widely used research method and tool to help systematically assess and prioritize different risk factors. SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 89 Figure. 3. Flow chart of matrix assessment of accident risk factors. Advantages of the AHP in assessing the risk of death on the road: 1. Structured decision-making: AHP provides a systematic approach to decision-making, comprehensively analyzes risk factors and their relative significance. 2. Subjective and objective factors: AHP allows you to combine both subjective judgments and objective data, providing a balanced assessment of risk factors. 3. Flexibility: AHP can solve complex problems on the road according to several criteria. It is flexible and can adapt to hierarchical or weighted results as new data becomes available. 4. Transparency and communication: AHP provides a transparent decision-making framework that allows stakeholders to understand the rationale for prioritizing risks. This facilitates communication and consensus building between experts and decision makers. Figure 4. Flowchart for organizing an expert group survey. Benefits of a road safety audit (RSA) [13,14]: 1. Systematic approach: The RSA follows a systematic and standardized approach to identifying safety concerns and proposing appropriate measures. This ensures that safety assessments are comprehensive and consistent and lead to targeted interventions. 2. Data-driven decision making: RSA relies on data collection and analysis to identify risk factors and prioritize safety improvements. This data-driven approach helps allocate resources efficiently and supports evidence-based decision-making. SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 90 3. Improving safety: RSA can identify potential safety hazards before accidents occur. By actively solving these problems, the RSA algorithm prevents accidents and reduces the severity of injuries (Figure 5). Figure 5. Recommended block-scheme on conducting road safety audit process. RESULTS An online survey was conducted among 384 drivers in Tashkent using Google Forms. According to statistics from the Republic of Uzbekistan, as of January 1, 2022, 3051.7 thousand vehicles were registered for individuals. A random sampling method was used to select the required number of participants, and it was determined that 384 participants were needed to conduct the survey. When developing the content of the questionnaire questions, the results of foreign studies were studied and 26 questions were initially created. An additional 18 questions were formed taking into account the conditions of the Republic of Uzbekistan and a total of 41 questions were drawn up. When polled by participant gender: male-89.5%, female-10.5%; By age: 18-22 years old3.3%, 23-38 years old-43.1%, 39-54 years old-39.2%, 55-70 years old-14.1% and over 70 years old-0.3%; By profession: employees of state bodies - 17.6%, law enforcement officers - 1.3%, employees of defense structures - 1.6%; employees of educational institutions - 10.8%, employees of public organizations - 13.4%, passengers and cargo carriers - 6.5%, entrepreneurs - 32.4%, students - 4.2% and official unemployed - 12.1%; By education: secondary-5.6%, secondary specialized-23.9%, higher-68.3% and doctors of science (PhD) -2.3%. The 37 factors used are structured as questions, and the driver assesses the importance of the factors by answering "yes" or "no" to indirect questions. The Cochran’s Q-test was used to test for a statistically significant effect of the results because this test is appropriate for the corresponding binary data samples. This study used 37 factors (41 in total) related to road traffic accident, which took into account many aspects, such as driver experience, reaction, confidence, alcohol consumption, etc., developed with the help of the Cochran’s Q-test, the following important factors were identified that affect the occurrence of accidents from the point of view of drivers: non-compliance with driving distance or traffic lights, fatigue behind the wheel, family conflicts and problems at work, use of a mobile device while driving, nervousness from external influences while driving, weather conditions, sudden switching of cars from one lane to another, standing in traffic jams were assessed as important factors affecting the risk of accidents on road traffic (Table 2). Table 2. Level of most important factors by Q-criterion Factors Qcriterio n Not keeping the distance while driving or when settling in 80,5 SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 91 front of a traffic light Intersection passage with flashing yellow traffic light 80,1 Adverse weather conditions (fog, rain, snow, dust storm) 76,2 Continuous lane change 71,2 Traffic congestion 68,6 Stressful state from family quarrels or from problems at work 61,4 The causes of accidents are different, but the main reason is that there is an imbalance in the system consisting of people (drivers), vehicles, roads and environmental factors. The following “D-V-R-E” (Driver – Vehicle – Road – Environment) system factors were selected (Table 3) [16]: 1. “Driver” factors. Drivers are the most active factor in ensuring road safety. According to statistics, in 2022, 26 accidents occurred on the Tashkent Bypass Road 4R21, including 16 collisions with other vehicles, 6 collisions with barriers, 3 collisions with pedestrians and 1 collision with a cyclist. As a result, more than 10 people died. In most cases, the accident was caused by the driver's behavior. 2. “Vehicle” factors. The car is the main means of modern transport. The quality of vehicle performance plays an important role in road safety. The immediate cause of road accidents can be problems such as brake failure and other mechanical failures due to late technical inspection. 3. “Road” factors. As the main elements of the road, the technical and operational condition of the road, the level of equipment and traffic conditions should not be neglected. Road conditions are a combination of important factors affecting the comfort and safety of road users. 4. “Environment” factors. Weather conditions such as fog, heavy rain, snow, icy roads, dust storms and darkness are important factors affecting road safety. Adverse weather is often the cause of accidents and its importance cannot be denied. Table 3. Classification of selected factors by “D-V-R-E” system Category Factors Driver Floor Age Driving experience Seat belt non-use Driving at high speed Improper overtaking Driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs Failure to maintain a safe distance between vehicles Driving through a red light Non-compliance with pedestrian priority Non-compliance with road signs Tiredness or falling asleep at the wheel Vehicle Vehicle type Vehicle model and make Vehicle size and weight Car body color Late maintenance Vehicle headlight defects Side and rear mirrors malfunction Presence of tyre defects Faults in brake system Fault in control system Road Road category Road section where there is an intersection, intersections, junction Low road capacity Missing or insufficient shoulder width Condition of road surface Condition of road signs Insufficient protection of the road section being repaired Low visibility on the road Other objects or animals on the SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 92 Lack of road lighting road Environment Season Day of the week Time of day Fog Dust storm Snowfall Heavy rain Strong wind Scorching heat The relative importance of the selected factors is determined using the comparison matrix in Table 4, where each factor is compared with all other factors [17]. Table 4. Comparison matrix Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3 Criterion 1 А11=1 А12 А13 Criterion 2 А21 А22=1 А23 Criterion 3 А31 А32 А33=1 Using hierarchical analysis, the level of importance of factors within the “D-V-R-E” criteria was assessed (Fig. 6). As a result, the experts determined the weight level of each factor and the compatibility limit of mutual assessments (Tables 5,6,7,8). “Driver” criterion “Vehicle” criterion “Road” criterion SCIENCE AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL VOLUME 4 ISSUE 11 NOVEMBER 2025 ISSN: 2181-3337 | SCIENTISTS.UZ 93 “Environment” criterion Figure 6. Graph of factors assessed by the expert group. Table 5. “Driver” criterion. Criterion Title Weigh t Index +/- Criterion 1 Age 2,5% 1,0% Criterion 2 Driving experience 2,0% 0,9% Criterion 3 Riding at high speed 19,9% 9,1% Criterion 4 Driving under alcohol/drug intoxication 18,5% 7,4% Criterion 5 Insufficient distance between the vehicle 2,7% 1,2% Criterion 6 Wrong overtaking 2,8% 1,3% Criterion 7 Running a red light 20,3% 8,1% Criterion 8 Do not give priority to pedestrians 12,5% 4,6% Criterion 9 Non-compliance with other road signs 13,9% 5,3% Criterion 10 The state of fatigue and sleepiness during movement 4,9% 2,1% Table 6. “Vehicle” criterion. Criterion Title Weight Index +/- Criterion 1 Type of vehicle 2,6% 1,3% Criterion 2 Delayed transport service 15,7% 6,1% Criterion 3 Malfunction of the headlamp 5,2% 2,5% Criterion 4 Malfunction of the side mirrors and rear view 3,5% 1,9% Criterion 5 Tyre wear 14,1% 5,2% Criterion 6 Malfunction of the brake system 30,8% 8,4%