User Guide for LUCCIA version 1.0 (dec 2023)

Nitidæ - 29 rue Imbert-Colomès 69001 LYON Tel : +33 (0)9 73 66 10 17 Mail [email protected] Website www.nitidae.org Siret : 753 391 150 000 20 LUCCIA User Guide Software V1.0, December 2023 LUCCIA User Guide 2 Table of Content Table of content How does LUCCIA work? ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Basics ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Initialisation ................................................................................................................ Erreur ! Signet non défini. Processes .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Interventions ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 User Interface ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 Building scenarios using LUCCIA user interface ............................................................................................ 6 LUCCIA / PRESENTATION ................................................................................................................................... 8 LUCCIA / SCENARIO ............................................................................................................................................. 8 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / GENERAL ...................................................................................................................... 9 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / POPULATION .............................................................................................................. 9 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / CROP ............................................................................................................................ 10 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / TREE ............................................................................................................................... 11 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / NATIONAL INTERVENTION / AGROFORESTRY ............................................... 12 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / NATIONAL INTERVENTION / INTENSIFICATION ............................................. 13 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / NATIONAL INTERVENTION / TREE PLANTATION .......................................... 13 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / NATIONAL INTERVENTION / FOREST RESTORATION .................................. 14 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION ........................................................................................... 15 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / PROTECTED AREA ................................................... 16 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / INTENSIFICATION .................................................... 16 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / ROAD ........................................................................... 17 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / AGROFORESTRY ....................................................... 18 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / PLANTATION ............................................................. 18 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / FOREST RESTORATION .......................................... 19 LUCCIA / SCENARIO / CONTROL OUTPUT ................................................................................................. 20 LUCCIA / SIMULATION ...................................................................................................................................... 20 LUCCIA / INDICATORS ....................................................................................................................................... 20 LUCCIA / EXTREME EVENTS ............................................................................................................................. 22 LUCCIA / PROJECT EVALUATION ................................................................................................................... 23 LUCCIA User Guide 3 Table of Content How does LUCCIA work? Basics • In LUCCIA, we model the main activities of rural households and their impacts on natural forests. These activities include cultivating cropland and clearing forest land when more space is required for cultivation, • Mozambique is divided in 1 km² land units. About 800,000 land units are required. • Within each land unit, we keep track of many variables that constitute the state of the system. For example, each land unit contain the respective surfaces of land cover types (e.g. cropland, urban, miombo, plantation, water) which add up to 100 ha. Associated with the cropland, we have a number of households and other related information (e.g. number of members, type of household, their cropland, the crops they cultivate a given year, etc.). There is also the number of trees of different types (timber, nut, fruit, and fertilizer). • The system is initialised in 2017, and each year, different processes occur that changes the state of the system until the end of the simulation period (e.g. 2037). • By changing the parameters of the processes, different simulation runs can be made that correspond to different scenarios. The result data saved each year for each scenario can be compared and their respective interests assessed. Initialization • The initialisation of the system means deciding what is inside each of the 800,000 land units covering Mozambique. • The respective surfaces of the different land cover types in each land unit is obtained from upscaling the FNDS 2016 Land Use / Land Cover map. • Putting people and households in the land units must be done considering at the same time: 1) INE 2017 census urban and rural population at posto level, 2) the cropland and urban land surfaces from the FNDS 2016 Land Use / Land Cover map and 3) the household characteristics at province level according to the IAS 2015 survey of about 5800 households in Mozambique. • We use a household typology with 4 types: HH1 subsistence, HH2 with some cash crop, HH3 with some livestock and HH4 small and emerging farmers. From the IAS survey, we obtain characteristics and statistics per HH type, per province, concerning the number of HH members, the land surface cultivated, in fallow, the main trees in their cropland, the types of crops and their respective area cultivated. • These characteristics are then used to populate the land units with people, households, trees, and crops. • Other sources of information are used. The road network, the protected area network, together with the existing cropland area are used to generate an “attractivity” map, which gives the probability of other land (grassland, forest) being converted into new cropland. Then, there are crop suitability maps and tree suitability maps which are used for deciding whether a certain crop or tree can grow in a given land unit. LUCCIA User Guide 4 Table of Content Processes • During a simulation, we start from the initial state (i.e. 2017) and calculate a new state for each time step (i.e. 1 year) until the end of the simulation period (e.g. 2037). • A new state is obtained from a previous state through the action of several processes related to the activities of the households. • One of the main processes is population dynamics. Population growth is modelled according to INE projections. Population birth and mortality rates are applied at province level with different values for urban and rural populations. New population is then distributed towards districts, then postos and finally to land units. • This process is closely linked to the migration process where population from land unit level can be aggregated (bottom-up) and displaced (top-down) to other administrative levels (posto, district or province). They move to urban areas, other districts in their own province, or to other provinces. The inter-province migration follows the origin-destination matrix of the INE. A parameter controls the proportion of migrating population going to urban areas. • We model household dynamics where households can be upgraded or downgraded in the HH1 to HH4 spectrum according to their income from crop and tree production during several consecutive years. Those that become candidates for migration are HH1 that have undergone recurring adverse conditions. • Crop cultivation is modelled at household level. Each household has a surface area of cropland. For a given year, part of the cropland is cultivated (according to the fallow duration map), and the rest is left as fallow. Each household cultivates between 1 and 5 different drops among a list of 10 crops (9 main crops like maize, feijao, rice, etc. and an unspecified ‘other’ crop). The crops chosen respect the crop suitability maps. To obtain household crop production, we multiply crop area by yield taken from pre-calculated yield maps. These were generated using a crop model (SARRA-O) run with four crop intensification levels and fed with input meteorological data generated from a GCM for simulated climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585). Then crop price projections are used to convert production into income for the households. The table with the four HH types in lines and the four intensification levels in columns is called the intensification matrix. Each value of the matrix gives the percentage of HH of a given type to use a given intensification level. Therefore, each line of the matrix adds up to 100%. • Most rural households have trees in their cropland. Four types of trees (nut=caju; fruit=mango; timber=eucalyptus and fertilizer=faidherbia) are modelled. At initialisation only caju and mango are distributed in the land units. The annual production also provide an income to the households. Production are not based on climate scenario, but on known average. Income are calculated according to price projections. • During migration, part of the households are attracted towards urban areas. They contribute to increase existing urban areas within land units, but also those in the surrounding land units through urban sprawl. LUCCIA User Guide 5 Table of Content Interventions • Other processes are modelled related to interventions. Development projects through their interventions influence the activities of the households. Each intervention is defined by a date (i.e. year) when it begins, a duration (i.e. number of years) and project area (i.e. a polygon or an administrative unit). • The road building intervention consists in installing new roads which will change the attractivity of the nearby land units. • Through natural resource conservation measures, such as increasing the protected area network, increasing the protection status of certain areas, or creating new conservation areas, will also reduce the attractivity of these areas for new households. • There are projects that target households by helping them improve their crop production through agricultural intensification, e.g. using, inputs, better crop varieties or overall better technical package. This is modelled by changing the intensification matrix for a given project area e.g. a district. This can be done by increasing the percentage of higher intensification levels for the targeted household types. • There are six more types of interventions available at national scale, two of each concerning respectively forestry plantation, agroforestry system and forest restoration. • One type of forestry plantation intervention is the industrial tree plantation. In existing DUATs, some local households lose their lands to industrial companies. New pulp or timber plantations are installed and the land cover is changed accordingly. • In buffer zones around these tree plantations, HH4 households can have individual tree plantations. They will reduce some of their cropland and grow trees on them. These trees will provide them an income by selling to the industrial company nearby. • Another important intervention is to promote agroforestry systems (AFS). In cash crop AFS, HH4 households living in areas where the cash crop (e.g. cashew) is possible (i.e. according to the tree suitability map) receive seedlings to be planted in order to increase the number of cash crop trees in their cropland. After some years, the trees grow bigger and the cultivated land is reduced. More cash crop trees mean more production and income for the household. • Diverse AFS promotion consists in targeting all HH types and encouraging them to grow more and diverse trees in their cropland. The gain in fertility of the cropland due to diverse AFS allows reducing the fallow duration to compensate the cropland surface occupied by trees. • An intervention proposed will target highly degraded forested areas through active forest restoration. These highly degraded forest areas are selected within KBA, conservation areas or forest concessions. Attractivity is set to 0 to prevent new households coming in. Grassland, fallow, and cropland are actively restored to become natural forest. • For moderately degraded forest areas in these KBA, conservation areas or forest concessions, there can be passive forest restoration. Attractivity is also set to 0 to prevent new households coming in. Natural regeneration will gradually convert grassland and fallow into forest. Total farm area of the target zones is also reduced. LUCCIA User Guide 6 Table of Content Table 1: Model structure and processes Module Name in Luccia code Involved in What it does Init_Module Initialisation of the system • read model parameters • read LULC map and extract LC surfaces per 1 km² land unit Attractivity_Module Initialisation of the system • Compute attractivity of each land unit based on raster, vector (polygons, polylines) • Load previously computed attractivity Suitability_Module Initialisation of the system • Read crop suitability maps • Generate crop suitability vectors (csv file, tif raster) Population_Module Population dynamics • Apply rural and urban population growth and mortality rates Migration_Module Horizontal HH dynamics • Manage interand intra-province HH migrations Urban_Module Initialisation of the system • Read urban population at postos level and distribute in land units Horizontal HH dynamics • Urban pop dynamics and urban sprawl Households_Module Initialisation of the system • Generate rural households and place in land units, respecting postos census, IAS HH stats and LULC map Land cover change • Generate new HH from pop increase and incoming migration, distribute in land units and convert land Case_studies_Module Application to case studies • Define and manage a case study • Set parameters, input data, define processes Tree_Module Application to case studies • Assign trees to HH according to IAS tree stats and tree suitability maps • Calculate tree production each year, and convert into HH income using prices Crop_Module Household cropping plan • Generate HH cropping plans that respect crop suitability maps and IAS HH crop stats Crop area to crop production • Generate crop production each year from yield maps (obtained from crop model running on climate scenarios) Crop production to welfare • From HH crop productions, calculate HH income HHDyn_Module Vertical and Horizontal HH dynamics • Using HH income as welfare index over several years, upgrade or downgrade HH User Interface Building scenarios using LUCCIA user interface • Luccia can be used to test the effects of projects against the business-as-usual baseline. • It comes with a user interface that allows to: o Define Scenarios for case studies at national or local levels o Run Simulations o Display Indicators resulting from simulations o Evaluate potential impacts of Extreme Events LUCCIA User Guide 7 Table of Content o Conduct Project Evaluation This user guide explains the different functions that can be used through the interface. The design and analysis of case studies (National and Local) are described in the two accompanying reports. Figure 1: Luccia software interface LUCCIA User Guide 8 Table of Content Figure 2: LUCCIA software tree structure LUCCIA / PRESENTATION Purpose • Gives a general overview of the LUCCIA software. LUCCIA / SCENARIO Purpose • Allows: o Accessing and modifying existing scenarios. Usage • Select existing scenario in the drop-down list • Save a modified existing scenario using LUCCIA User Guide 9 Table of Content • Save a copy of the current scenario with a new name using . This is a way to create a new scenario from an existing one, and be able to change the settings of that new scenario later. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / GENERAL PARAMETERS Purpose • Allows: o Setting Begin and End year of simulation period, o Setting the input Land Use Land Cover map of Mozambique The default Begin and End years are 2017-2037. However, crop yield maps and price tables are provided to run simulations until 2050. The reference Land Use Land Cover map used is the FNDS 2016 map. For each 1 km² land unit, the respective surface area of the following classes used in LUCCIA (Crop, Grassland, Mangrove, Mecrusse, Miombo, Mopane, Open Water, Other, Peatland, Plantation and Urban) are extracted and saved in separate tif files. Each simulation year, a tif file is created for each land cover type, and contains the changes in land cover compared to the previous year. Usage • Select Begin and End simulation year from the drop-down lists • Select Reference Land Use and Land Cover map by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / POPULATION Purpose • Allows: o Setting Rural areas growth (birth) and loss (mortality) rates o Setting Urban areas growth and loss rates • Allows: o Setting Rural and Urban population migration ratios o Setting Inter-Province Origin-Destination matrix file The default parameters reproduce the official population projections of the INE 2017 census. Other population projections (e.g. UN, World Bank) can be achieved by changing the appropriate parameters in the interface. The projections can include a decrease in growth and loss rates that is also parameterized. LUCCIA User Guide 16 Table of Content LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / PROTECTED AREA Purpose • Increase the existing Protected Area (PA) network by: o Creating new PAs or o Restraining accessibility of existing PAs The new PAs and new status of existing PAs are read in a shapefile. The polygons representing the PAs has a column “PERMEA” which contains a permeability value between 0 (high protection) and 100 (low protection). This value is used to modify the attractivity map used in LUCCIA for deciding where new households are installed. The new attractivity value overwrites the existing attractivity value inside the polygon of the PA. Usage • Activate the Protected Area process using the switch buttons • Select: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o There is no need to specify intervention duration as PAs are assumed to remain protected until the end of the simulation. o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / INTENSIFICATION Purpose • Allows improving local crop production for selected postos by increasing crop intensification. Yield maps with four levels of intensification are available for the main crops in Mozambique between 2017 and 2050. For each household type (HH1, HH2, HH3 and HH4), the households in a posto will adopt different intensification levels. We use four coefficients (the sum of which is equal to 1) that gives the distribution of households with each intensification level. For example, in the figure above, a set of coefficients (0.1, 0.1, 0.5, 0.3) for HH1 means that 10% of the households of type 1 in the given posto will adopt Intensification level 1 (lowest), 10% with Intensification level 2 LUCCIA User Guide 17 Table of Content (low), 50% with Intensification level 3 (average) and 30% with Intensification level 4 (above average). The postos on which the new Intensification levels are applied are read from the shapefile. To generate that shapefile, open the LUCCIA posto shapefile, select the required postos and save them to a new shapefile using “Export/Save selected features as…” in QGIS. Usage • Activate the Intensification process using the switch buttons • Select the: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o Duration (in years) using slide button. o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / ROAD Purpose • Improve accessibility of study area by installing new roads The installation of new roads will improve the attractivity of land units near the new roads. The attractivity improvement is parameterized using the attractivity ratio e.g. the attractivity of a given land unit is multiplied by (1 + attractivity ratio) weighted by the distance of the land unit to the new road. Usage • Activate the New Road process using the switch buttons • Select the: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o There is no need to specify intervention duration as the roads are assumed to remain until the end of the simulation. o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window o Set the new road attractivity ratio using the slide button. LUCCIA User Guide 18 Table of Content LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / AGROFORESTRY Purpose • Allows activating and configuring agroforestry system (AFS) processes within a local intervention scenario: o Coffee AFS o Diverse AFS The targets of the local interventions are set per polygon directly in the shapefiles. For Coffee AFS, the target is the number of seedlings distributed per year (column NB_SEED) and the success rate of the seedlings (column SUC_RATE). For Diverse AFS, the target is the new surface area (hectares; column SUR_HA) in diversification agroforestry per polygon. The targets in the table above are distributed among the polygons in the shapefile. Usage • Activate Coffee AFS and/or Diverse AFS using the switch buttons • For each AFS intervention, select: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o Duration (in years) using slide button o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / PLANTATION Purpose • Allows activating and configuring plantation processes within a local intervention scenario: o Commercial agriculture o Industrial plantation o Individual plantation The targets of the interventions are set per polygon directly in the shapefiles. For Industrial tree plantations, the target is the surface area (hectares; column SUR_HA) where new Industrial tree plantations are installed. For Individual tree plantation, the target is the surface area (hectares; LUCCIA User Guide 19 Table of Content column SUR_HA) where new Individual tree plantations are installed by HH4 households on their cropland in the vicinity of existing Industrial plantations. The targets in the table above are distributed among the polygons in the shapefile. For commercial agriculture, the target is the surface area (hectares; column SUR_HA) where new commercial agriculture (here litchi and macadamia) is installed. Usage • Activate Commercial agriculture, Industrial plantation and/or Individual plantation processes using the switch buttons • For each plantation intervention, select: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o Duration (in years) using slide button. o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / LOCAL INTERVENTION / FOREST RESTORATION Purpose • Allows activating and configuring Forest restoration processes within a local intervention scenario: o Active forest restoration o Passive forest restoration The targets of the interventions are set per polygon directly in the shapefiles. For both Active and Passive Forest restoration, the target is the surface area (hectares; column SUR_HA) for which forest restoration measures are applied. The targets in the table above are distributed among the polygons in the shapefile. Usage • Activate Active and/or Passive Forest restoration processes using the switch buttons • For each forest restoration intervention, select: o Begin year of intervention using drop-down list o Duration (in years) using slide button. LUCCIA User Guide 20 Table of Content o Study area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. LUCCIA / SCENARIO / CONTROL OUTPUT Purpose • Allows choosing which indicator map to save as tif files on the disk. Each scenario simulation can generate around 33 Gb of output data with more than 5000 tif files. A tif file is a raster map of Mozambique with pixels that correspond to the 800000 1 km² land units. The pixel value is the indicator value expressed as a real number. In order to limit use of disk space, the user can select which tif files are useful for a given study. Usage • Select which indicator maps are to be saved by checking or unchecking the box next to a given indicator map e.g. LUCCIA / SIMULATION Purpose • Allows to: o Run a scenario simulation. o Stop the simulation before it ends. o Monitor the progress of the simulation. Once the scenario building is complete, the user can start, stop, and monitor the simulation. Depending on the computer used, a simulation run for 20 years lasts about one hour and a half. Usage • Click on to start the current scenario simulation (the scenario name that appears on the first line of the console window) • Click on to abort the current scenario simulation. • Follow the simulation percentage completion on the horizontal blue line. • Follow the progress of the simulation with the messages appearing in the console window. LUCCIA / INDICATORS Figure 2: Indicators window LUCCIA User Guide 21 Table of Content Purpose • Allows to display indicators of a chosen scenario at different administrative levels (posto, district, province, and country). The graph can display one indicator of one scenario but for several units of the same administrative level over the whole simulation period. The administrative units can be chosen interactively on the map. Usage • Select a Scenario from the Scenario list. • Select an Indicator of that scenario from the indicators list. • Select an administrative level from the Zone list. • Select administrative units by clicking on the map. Selected units appear in red. • The graph type can also be changed using the drop-down list LUCCIA User Guide 22 Table of Content Usage tip: the indicator list can be quickly filtered by typing the first characters of a word: LUCCIA / EXTREME EVENTS Figure 3: Extreme events window Purpose • Allows displaying reference household and land cover information on areas affected by extreme events. LUCCIA User Guide 23 Table of Content The area affected by an extreme event is supplied in a shapefile. A number of predefined indicators are then calculated based on the baseline scenario simulation for that geographical extent and for the year of the event. Shapefiles of two previous events are supplied (Cyclone Freddy 2023, Cyclone Ana 2022), but those for future events can be supplied and the indicators will be generated. Usage • Select an existing or new extreme event by setting the: o Affected area shapefile by clicking on to open file selection window. o Year of the extreme event using drop-down list (Reminder: If the extreme event happens in the beginning of the year e.g. February, setting the previous year would give a better picture of the status during the event.) o After the calculation of the extreme event impact indicators has been done, you can select a geographical level using the drop-down list o Then every time you select a geographical area on the map and the values of the indicators are updated. o Note that if you want to display the values for the impact of the whole area of the extreme event, you can select ‘Whole’ in the drop-down list and select the geographical extent of the event on the map. LUCCIA / PROJECT EVALUATION Figure 4: Project evaluation window LUCCIA User Guide 24 Table of Content Purpose • Allows making a comparison between two scenarios (e.g. to compare indicators from baseline and another scenario) to assess the impact of the implanted interventions. Usage • Select the scenario related to a specific project that you wish to compare with the Baseline scenario using the drop-down list • Select an indicator of interest using • Select a geographical level using • Then every time you select a geographical area on the map the graph will be updated showing the evolution of that indicator for both scenarios : the Baseline and the one you have chosen. LUCCIA User Guide 25 Table of Content