Future-proofing the EU through Polar science: A Call for sustained research and strategic investment

FUTURE-PROOFING THE EU THROUGH POLAR SCIENCE: A CALL FOR SUSTAINED RESEARCH AND STRATEGIC INVESTMENT POLICY BRIEF October 2025 2 CONTEXT: A CRITICAL JUNCTURE FOR EU POLAR ENGAGEMENT 1. The EU Arctic Policy Update, The Arctic Institute, 2021. Available at: https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Continuity-with-Greater-Confidence-The-EUs-Arctic-Policy-Update-2021.pdf 2. Antarctica: What role for the European Union? European Parliament, 2023. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ IDAN/2023/702589/EXPO_IDA(2023)702589_EN.pdf 3. Polar and Ocean Research, EC, 2025. Available at: https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/research-area/environment/climate-change-science/polar-and-ocean-research_en 4. EPB’s open call to secure Europe’s leadership in Polar Research by targeted investments in FP10, EPB, 2025. Available at: https://www. europeanpolarboard.org/news-events/news/article/news/epbs-opencall-to-secure-europes-leadership-in-polar-research-by-targeted-investments-in-fp10/ The European Union has steadily advanced its polar engagement over the past two decades, positioning itself as a major scientific, diplomatic, and normative actor in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The EU Arctic Policy, revised in 2021, emphasized the region’s strategic importance and committed to supporting a peaceful, sustainable, and prosperous Arctic1. At the same time, the EU has become increasingly involved in Antarctic governance through active participation in the Antarctic Treaty System and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), with science and environmental protection as central pillars2. Research and innovation underpin much of the EU’s engagement in polar affairs. Through Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe, over €790 million were invested in Arctic, Antarctic, and broader polar research, supporting more than 320 research projects3. These investments have underpinned the development and innovation behind instruments like Copernicus and Galileo which have made the EU indispensable for Earth observation and navigation in the polar zones. As preparations advance for the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Tenth Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP10), the European Polar Board has warned that, without a dedicated polar programme, Europe risks critical gaps in observational capacity, scientific leadership and strategic foresight, jeopardizing Green Deal targets, climate resilience and long-term security4. Preparations are also underway for the Fifth International Polar Year (2032–33), a global initiative to advance polar research. The last IPY (2007–08) left a lasting legacy of observation systems, international collaboration, and scientific breakthroughs from a motivated and educated workforce. Ensuring EU leadership in FP10 will be critical for Europe to shape and benefit from this upcoming scientific milestone. The message from the research community is clear: Europe cannot afford to retreat from the poles. A sustained, mission-driven investment in polar science is essential to uphold the EU’s objectives, global leadership, and long-term security. 3 KEY MESSAGES The Polar Regions are at the forefront of global climate change and Europe’s research investment is delivering the critical insights needed to navigate these challenges. Four flagship Horizon projects (PolarRES, CRiceS, PROTECT and OCEAN ICE) illustrate how coordinated funding powers advanced observations, high-resolution models and decision-support tools. To maintain Europe’s leadership and strengthen climate resilience, policymakers must sustain and integrate support across funding, infrastructure, research and stakeholder engagement. • SUSTAINED FUNDING UNDERPINS RELIABILITY A dedicated polar programme under the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation in the 2028–34 Multiannual Financial Framework, paired with funding criteria that protect incremental advances, will secure continuous time-series observations and model development. • POLAR RISKS MUST BE INTEGRATED INTO EUROPE’S ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Polar-driven climate impacts directly affect European resilience and should be embedded in national adaptation plans, civil protection systems, and foresight strategies. • TIPPING POINTS DEMAND URGENT ATTENTION Research must focus on identifying thresholds and low-probability, high-impact events, such as ice-sheet collapse or extreme polar storms, that could trigger cascading global risks. • BETTER FORECASTING REQUIRES BETTER MODELS Developing high-resolution, polar-relevant Earth system models that capture critical feedbacks is key to reliable climate forecasting at scales relevant for decision-making. • INNOVATION CAN SHARPEN FORESIGHT Integrating AI and machine learning into polar modelling, anchored in physical principles, will improve the accuracy and policy relevance of climate prediction. 4 PR1. STRENGTHEN EU LEADERSHIP THROUGH SUSTAINED POLAR RESEARCH FUNDING • Establish a dedicated polar programme under the Tenth Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP10) within the 2028–34 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to guarantee uninterrupted investment in polar science. • Adapt EU funding criteria to explicitly support foundational research—securing incremental advances in modelling and observational time-series. PR2. ADDRESS POLAR CLIMATE RISKS IN EUROPEAN ADAPTATION STRATEGIES • Integrate polar-driven risks into EU and national climate adaptation plans, civil protection systems, and foresight strategies. • Support research on polar tipping points and their potential to trigger irreversible global impacts, especially under overshoot scenarios. • Dedicate targeted studies to low-probability, high-impact polar events (e.g., extreme storms, sudden ice-sheet collapse) and their cascading risks for coastal and global systems. PR3. SUPPORT MODELLING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT CLIMATE FORECASTING • Fund the development of high-resolution, polar-relevant climate and weather Earth system models at impact relevant scales that integrate key feedbacks (e.g., ice–ocean–atmosphere coupling, aerosol–cloud processes). • Promote innovation in polar prediction through the integration of AI and machine learning tools in polar climate modelling, provided they are guided by physical principles and enhance reliability for decision-making. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 5 As part of the policy event that informed this brief, four EU-funded projects came together to share scientific insights and identify research and policy gaps in polar science. POLAR REGIONS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM (POLARRES): The project investigates the impacts of polar climate change in a global context, from impacts on local communities and ecosystems to climate extremes in Europe. How polar processes interact with global climate systems and how changes in the Arctic and Antarctic affect both local communities and broader climate dynamics. By developing high-resolution models and relatable climate storylines, the project enhances understanding of local-to-global impacts such as permafrost thaw, Arctic shipping, and ecosystem disruption. A key output is the Polar Explorer, a publicly accessible tool to help communities and stakeholders visualise and plan for future climate risks. • Total cost: €8,133,841.25 • EU contribution: €7,996,321.25 CLIMATE RELEVANT INTERACTIONS AND FEEDBACKS: THE KEY ROLE OF SEA ICE AND SNOW IN THE POLAR AND GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM (CRICES): The project improves the ability of Earth system models to simulate key polar climate processes by integrating multidisciplinary observations with advanced modelling. It brings together experts from Europe and partner countries to enhance understanding of polar feedbacks and their role in shaping global climate. CRiceS outcomes are feeding into international model intercomparison efforts and advancing tools that will improve the accuracy of future climate projections. • Total cost: €8,507,794.35 • EU contribution: €7,999,266.25 PROJECTS SUMMARY PROJECTING SEA-LEVEL RISE: FROM ICE SHEETS TO LOCAL IMPLICATIONS (PROTECT): The project improves projections of sea level rise by refining models of ice sheet and glacier melt in Greenland, Antarctica, and mountain regions. The project integrates cryosphere and coastal impact science to assess both global and local consequences of sea level rise, extending projections through 2150 to inform adaptation planning. Through satellite data, stakeholder engagement, and scenario analysis, PROTECT supports the development of future climate services and reinforces the urgency of mitigation under the Paris Agreement. • Total cost: €9,996,661.45 • EU contribution: €9,996,661.45 OCEAN CRYOSPHERE EXCHANGES IN ANTARCTICA: IMPACTS ON CLIMATE AND THE EARTH SYSTEM (OCEAN:ICE): The project assesses how Antarctic ice sheet and Southern Ocean processes interact to influence sea level rise, ocean circulation, and global climate. By combining field data, satellite observations, and advanced modelling, the project improves projections of ice sheet melt and its far-reaching climate impacts on Europe and beyond. Key innovations include new datasets on Antarctic freshwater fluxes and sea ice production, as well as pioneering work on ice–ocean coupling and tipping points. • Total cost: €5,486,890.00 • EU contribution: €5,486,889.25 6 The projects have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement numbers: 869304, 101003826 and 101003590, and Horizon Europe programme.