Market and Value Chain Analysis

Grant Agreement number: 101058371 Project acronym: ESTELLA Project title: Design of bio-based thermoset polymer with recycling capability by dynamic bonds for bio-composite manufacturing Grant Agreement number: 101058371 Project acronym: ESTELLA Project title: Design of bio-based thermoset polymer with recycling capability by dynamic bonds for bio-composite manufacturing DELIVERABLE 6.1 Market and Value Chain Analysis Contractual Date of Delivery: 30 November 2023 Actual Date of Delivery: 19. December 2023 Lead contractor for this deliverable: Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research Author(s): Liliya Pullmann, Annamarija Raic Participants(s): Sonia Garrido Chamorro, Maria Asensio, Jorge Velasc,o, Damian Kiełkiewicz WP contributing to the deliverable: WP 6 Nature: PU-Public Version V.3 Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. REVISION TABLE Document version Date Modified sections - Details V 1.1 20.10.2023 First draft V.1.2 13.11.2023 Advanced for revision by project partners V.1.2.1 14.11. - 24.11.2023 Revision by consortium partners V.2 30.11. - 11.12.2023 Quality review V.3 19.12.2023 Final version Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................................... 3 ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 7 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 9 1.1. OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................9 1.2. METHODOLOGY .....................................................................................................................9 2. EPOXY RESIN MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ......................................................................... 9 2.1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC RELEVANCE FOR THE EU.......................................................................... 11 The largest user sectors of epoxy resin in the EU ........................................... 12 2.1.1. ................................................................................................................................................ 13 1.1. 3. SUSTAINABILITY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................ 14 3.1. MARKET TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS OF RECYCLABLE THERMOSETS ........................................ 15 Patent statistics in epoxy resin recycling technologies ................................ 16 3.1.1. 3.2. BIO-BASED EPOXY RESIN ....................................................................................................... 17 Market trends and developments of bio-based epoxy resin ...................... 18 3.2.1. Patent statistics .................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2. 3.3. RECYCLING STRATEGIES FOR THE CIRCULARITY ........................................................................ 20 3.4. CURRENT RECYCLING TECHNIQUES ........................................................................................ 21 3.5. CHEMICAL RECYCLING OF THERMOSETS ................................................................................ 22 3.6. SUSTAINABLE RECYCLING APPROACHES ................................................................................. 23 4. VALUE CHAIN OF THE SSBD EPOXY RESIN ....................................................................... 24 4.1. VALUE CHAIN OF THE FOSSIL-BASED EPOXY RESINS: STATUS QUO .............................................. 25 4.2. ESTELLA VALUE CHAINS ..................................................................................................... 26 Degradable and recyclable fossil-based thermosets .................................. 27 4.2.1. Degradable and recyclable bio-based thermosets .................................... 30 4.2.2. 4.3. MAJOR REQUIREMENTS, POTENTIALS AND CHALLENGES ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN .................... 34 Techno-economic challenges ........................................................................ 34 4.3.1. 4.4. STRATEGIC INSIGHTS ............................................................................................................. 37 5. FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS FOR THE MARKET UPTAKE AND DEVELOPMENT ................ 38 5.1. ECONOMIC FACTORS .......................................................................................................... 39 Resource costs ................................................................................................... 39 5.1.1. Production costs ................................................................................................ 40 5.1.2. Waste management and recycling infrastructure costs ............................. 41 5.1.3. Waste management infrastructure, sourcing and supply chain ................ 42 5.1.4. 5.2. POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS ............................................................ 44 5.3. TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS .................................................................................................. 46 5.4. SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE .......................................................................................................... 47 5.5. REQUIREMENTS OF MAJOR APPLICATION AREAS ..................................................................... 48 Construction ...................................................................................................... 48 5.5.1. Mobility ............................................................................................................... 50 5.5.2. 6. OUTLOOK AND OVERALL STRATEGIC INSIGHTS .............................................................. 52 6.1. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ...................................................................................................... 52 6.2. STRATEGIC INSIGHTS FOR SUCCESSFUL MARKET DEVELOPMENT ................................................. 54 Address inefficiencies across the value chain .............................................. 54 6.2.1. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Ensure a stable demand and supply of materials ........................................ 56 6.2.2. Establishment of an industrial End-of-Life management system ................. 56 6.2.3. Creating favorable policy framework conditions ......................................... 57 6.2.4. Awareness raising .............................................................................................. 58 6.2.5. BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................... 59 Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Abbreviations ADCAN: Associative Dynamic Covalent Adaptive Network AI: Artificial Intelligence BPA: Bisphenol A BMC: Bulk Moulding Compounds (BMC) CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate CAN: Covalent Adaptive Network CEAP: Circular Economy Action Plan CEE/SEE: Central Eastern Europe/South Eastern Europe CF: Carbon Fibre CFRP: Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer CMR: Carcinogen, Mutagen and Reprotoxic CNRS: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique DDCAN: Dissociative Dynamic Covalent Adaptive Network ELV: End-of-Life Vehicle EOL: End-of-Life GDP: Gross Domestic Product GMO: Genetic Modified Organism GVA: Gross Value Added ICT: Information and Communication Technology ISCC: International Sustainability and Carbon Certification LCA: Life cycle analysis MBM: Mass Balance Methodology OOA: Out of Autoclave PET: Polyethylene Terephthalate rCF: Recycled Carbon Fibre R&D: Research and Development REDcert: Renewable Energy Directive Certificate SMC: Sheet Moulding Compounds Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. SPI: Sustainable Products Initiative UV: Ultra Violet vCF: Virgin Carbon Fibre WEEE: Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Executive Summary Epoxy resins represent one of the most economically significant class of thermosetting polymers with a wide range of applications. The broad application across industries and a large number of end users within the EU constitutes their significant socio-economic value. While the economic significance of epoxy resin remains huge, its limited recyclability and considerable environmental footprint are crucial drawbacks. This represents a particular challenge against the background of the urgent need to reduce the environmental impact of these materials, particularly in the light of more restrictive environmental legislation. The demand for epoxy resins is expected to continue in the future, especially for fibre-reinforced composites. Solutions that are scalable and reach technical properties comparable with fossil-based materials have great market potential. For the economic success of novel technologies, it is critical that these technologies allow lower energy consumption, help improve the quality of the output material while reducing process and product cost and lowering environmental impact. Through the development of a novel bio-based epoxy resin with inherent recyclability, ESTELLA project holds a huge technological and economic potential while contributing to the green transition and circularity of the thermoset materials. The present analysis demonstrated that the EU offers favourable framework conditions for the market uptake of both reprocessible fossil and bio-based thermoset composites to be developed by ESTELLA. More specifically, the abundant availability and access to the biological resources and raw materials, the presence of a large and advanced chemical and bio-technological industries as well as the regulatory environment aimed at the support of advanced and sustainable technologies would facilitate the successful market implementation and development of ESTELLA’s products. Furthermore, it is evident that methods and techniques applied by ESTELLA are well suited for the integration in the current production workflows. However, there are a number of challenges and requirements, which need to be addressed at different stages of the value chain to ensure the commercial success of the ESTELLA’s products. Overall, the factors influencing the successful uptake and development of the market for the bio-based and reprocessible thermosets are complex and can be divided in economic, political framework conditions, technological factors, social acceptance, and application specific requirements. From the perspective of market players aspects, such as high production costs, low performance or uncertainty regarding the quality of new Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. materials represent major market barriers. The development of new reprocessible and recyclable thermosets are associated with higher costs, which are expected to decrease as technologies mature and learning effects in the production and recycling are realised. One of the main challenges in Research and Development (R&D) is to achieve performance characteristics for the degradable and bio-based fibrereinforced thermosets, which are comparable with conventional carbon or glass fibre reinforced thermosets. This still requires a lot of R&D efforts. However, there is a number of further aspects that should be sufficiently addressed and various challenges overcome to achieve a sound market development. These involve specific application relevant requirements as well as the fundamental need to ensure a significant and stable demand for new materials and the recycled content. Apart from the necessity to overcome technological and economic challenges during the R&D and production processes, the success of ESTELLA relies to a large extent on the availability of an industrial waste management system. To achieve this, substantial improvement and scaling of the entire recycling value chain (collection for recycling, sorting, mechanical recycling, and chemical recycling) are necessary. Achieving existing goals and properly addressing challenges and requirements described above calls for a substantial and concentrated effort of academia, industry, policy makers, and other stakeholders. The engagement of and close collaboration with industrial stakeholders would be highly beneficial when developing and implementing processes towards industrial design. Therefore, a network of industry partners to support ESTELLA's journey from product development via product launch to a feasible recycling process in a circular economy is necessary. Deliverable 6.1 fulfilled its objectives and was not affected by any specific deviation with respect to what was set in the Grant Agreement (GA) regarding its scope or timing. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 1. Introduction 1.1. Objectives The main objective of this deliverable is to facilitate understanding of the major market and technological trends in the field of sustainable and circular thermosets as well as to explore their future market potential. To this end, a thorough examination of underlying framework conditions that drive or hinder the market development following the holistic approach was performed. The latter implies studying all relevant economic, technological, environmental, social aspects and regulatory framework conditions. Further goal was an in-depth analysis of the ESTELLA relevant value chain in order to identify major technological and economic challenges and derive requirements at each value chain stage that need to be taken into account when developing and preparing the product for the market uptake. Based on the knowledge generated, strategic insights were derived and operational information provided to inform further activities of the ESTELLA project. 1.2. Methodology Different methodologies were applied to obtain and analyse information that would allow to reach conclusions on the market and value chain analysis of sustainable thermoset composites in general and epoxy resins in particular. To develop a comprehensive understanding and increase the validity of findings, we used the triangulation technique that combines different research methods to arrive at meaningful insights. The methodological framework used for this study comprises: comprehensive and in-depth literature review, patent application analysis, and market data analysis. 2. Epoxy resin market characteristics The shift from a fossilto renewable-based material basis is crucial for the sustainable and green transition of our economy and society. Plastic is one of the most broadly used materials across different sectors and applications. However, only a small fraction of plastics - less than 20% is recyclable. According to their chemical composition, around 11% of the current plastic production volume (42 million tonnes) are thermosets (Prescouter 2022). Thermosets are widely used as strong, lightweight materials. Epoxy resins represent one of the most economically significant class of thermosetting polymers with a wide range of Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Asia-Pacific is currently the largest market, focusing predominantly on mechanical recycling. The region is the leading producer of composite materials due to the growing demand for assembly and manufacturing facilities located there, which are major consumers of thermosets in electrical and electronics, wind energy, transportation, building and construction sectors 13 . The region is expected to maintain its leadership in the coming years. Along with the USA, Europe is a major market for recyclable thermosets and is projected to witness a high growth in the future. Recyclable thermosets are poised to dominate the thermoset market in the EU, which is anticipated to become a leading region in the recyclable thermoset industry, with an increased focus on more efficient and circular recycling technologies. Patent statistics in epoxy resin recycling technologies 3.1.1. The patent application analysis reveals that along with the USA, the EU27 holds the largest share in patent filings in the field of epoxy resin recycling technologies worldwide (Figure 3). This points out to a strong technological position of the European players in this area. The patent application dynamics shows a notable upward trend since 2016 in the EU-27 (Figure 3). Figure 3 Patent applications in epoxy resin recycling. Source: Fraunhofer ISI Table 1 provides a summary of some major global innovation players in epoxy resin recycling technologies. The data demonstrates a technological concentration in the hands of a few players from the USA, Japan, China and the EU. 13 https://www.insightaceanalytic.com/report/recyclable-thermoset-market/1586 Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Table 1 Worldwide largest patent applicant in epoxy resin recycling technologies in 2015-2021. Source: Fraunhofer ISI. Organisation Number of patents in 2015-2021 Region/country EASTMAN CHEM 10 USA EXXONMOBIL CHEM 9 USA ZEPHYROS INC 6 USA MITSUBISHI ENG-PLASTICS CORP 6 Japan KINGFA SCI & TECH CO LTD 5 China SHOWA DENKO MATERIALS CO LTD 5 Japan DOW GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES LLC 4 USA UNIV CALIFORNIA 4 USA HENKEL AG & CO KGAA 4 EU SHPP GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES BV 4 China HITACHI CHEM CO LTD 4 Japan ARKEMA FRANCE 3 EU/France BASF SE 3 EU/Germany COVESTRO DEUT AG 3 EU/Germany SABIC GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES BV 3 EU GURIT UK LTD 3 UK SCHOCK GMBH 3 EU/Germany PPG IND OHIO INC 3 USA OMYA INT AG 3 USA TOPPAN INC 3 Japan KOREA INST SCI & TECHNOLOGY 3 South Korea ADITYA BIRLA CHEM THAILAND LTD 3 Thailand BRASKEM SA 3 Brazil 3.2. Bio-based epoxy resin The transition towards environmental sustainability prioritises the development and implementation of renewable and recyclable biobased materials. There are examples of bio-based epoxy compounds synthesised from natural substances, such as rosin, sugar, itaconic acid, cardanol, lignin, tannin, and vegetable oil (Post et al. 2020). Bio-based epoxy resins can be categorised into the following groups: 1) Aromatic-containing: Lignin, a by-product of the paper industry, is a promising raw material for bio-based epoxy resins. Bio-based materials derived from lignin exhibit a higher limiting oxygen index, making them more fire-retardant (Ares-Elejoste et al. 2023). 2) Aliphatic group: This group primarily utilises vegetable oils (a mixture of esters derived from glycerol and unsaturated fatty acids), as the main raw materials for developing bio-based epoxy resins (Ares-Elejoste et al. 2023). 3) Fully bio-based epoxy resins: These systems are characterised by both the epoxy precursor and the hardener originating from renewable Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. sources. Efforts to create fully bio-based epoxy resins have included the use of curing agents derived from renewable materials, such as modified plant oil, bio-based acids and anhydrides, amidoamines from rosin and tung oil, lignin, bio-based phenols, and rosin acid (Shundo et al. 2022). Despite these advancements, most bio-based epoxy compounds have not reached a full scale commercial application yet, primarily due to the high costs associated with isolating and synthesising natural monomers. The challenge remains to develop bio-based epoxy materials that not only offer improved functionalities, but also feature economically optimised manufacturing processes. One promising approach involves bio-based epoxy composites reinforced with lignin-containing nanocellulose, which is extracted from biomass resources (e.g., wood pulp, cotton, etc.). Currently, there are epoxy resins with approximately 30% bio-based content, complemented by natural reinforcements, that are being used in various industries, including aerospace, automotive, and electronics (Ares-Elejoste et al. 2023). Regions, such as the EU, US and Japan are increasingly focusing on the use of more sustainable products that support recyclability. The demand for biocomposites is expected to rise in the future. However, their widespread adoption requires the availability of suitable processing techniques and the development of properties that meet the requirements of specific applications, among other things. Market trends and developments of bio-based epoxy 3.2.1. resin The bio-based epoxy resin market, while currently small, is steadily growing. Market research reports vary in their forecasts, but they generally predict CAGRs between 11% and 15% for the next few years. 14 Biodegradable epoxy resins segment currently holds the largest market share and is expected to expand rapidly in the future 15 . The USA are at the forefront of bio-based epoxy resins technology, with a robust presence and several specialty chemicals companies that have integrated bio-based feedstock in their production processes, replacing fossil-based materials. North America leads in adoption, followed by Europe. The Asia-Pacific region, with key players in Japan, China and 14 https://www.industryarc.com/Research/Bio-based-Resins-Market-Research-503023; https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/bio-based-epoxy-market100837 15 https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/bio-based-resin Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. South Korea, is also exhibiting substantial rise, driven by large multinational corporations 16 . Despite their environmental benefits, bio-based resins are currently more expensive than their conventional counterpart. Their production is characterised by low yields and higher costs. With current technology, the manufacturing costs of bio-based resins can be up to 50% higher than those for traditional fossil-based products 17 . However, as technologies advance and manufacturing techniques become more efficient, production costs and product prices are expected to decrease. Patent statistics 3.2.2. As a region that places high priority on the development of sustainable technologies and broadly supports their uptake and use, the EU provides favourable framework conditions for the generation of innovative sustainable technologies. Material innovations and related technologies represent one key focus of such innovations. As the patent statistics demonstrate in (Figure 4), the EU-27 belongs after the USA globally to the technological leaders in the field of bio-based epoxy resins. The EU’s patent application dynamics particularly increased in the last years, fuelled by more targeted strategic policies and policy initiatives aiming to support the green transition of the EU. Figure 4 Patent applications in bio-based epoxy resin. Source: Fraunhofer ISI. Among the most prominent European innovation players in bio-based epoxy resins are the VTT (Finland), Curevac (Germany), Centre National 16 https://www.polarismarketresearch.com/industry-analysis/bio-based-epoxy-resinsmarket 17 https://www.industryarc.com/Research/Bio-based-Resins-Market-Research-503023 Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) (France), Henkel (Germany), Arkema (France) and other (see Table 2). Table 2 Worldwide largest patent applicants in bio-based epoxy resins in 2015-2021. Source: Fraunhofer ISI. Organisation Number of patents in 2015-2021 Region/country HARVARD COLLEGE 5 USA ILLUMINA INC 5 USA UNIV CALIFORNIA 5 USA CUREVAC AG 5 EU VALTION TEKNILLINEN TUTKIMUSKESKUS 5 EU CENT NAT RECH SCI 4 EU GENEMIND BIOSCI CO LTD 5 China HENKEL AG & CO KGAA 4 EU INGEVITY SOUTH CAROLINA LLC 4 USA PLEXBIO CO LTD 4 USA PPG IND OHIO INC 4 USA PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 4 USA 3M INNOVATIVE PROPERTIES CO 4 USA SHENZHEN GENEMIND BIOSCI CO LTD 4 China SAMYANG CORP 4 South Korea AGENCY SCI TECHNOLOGY & RES 4 Singapore ARKEMA FRANCE 3 EU JOINTHERAPEUTICS SRL 3 EU PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 3 UK RANDOX LAB LTD 3 UK RANDOX TEORANTA 3 UK LOCKI THERAPEUTICS LTD 3 UK ROQUETTE FRERES SA 3 EU SCHOCK GMBH 3 EU DIRECT GENOMICS CO LTD 3 China FOSHAN JINWANDA TECHNOLOGY 3 China FOSHAN KING WONDER HI-TECH 3 China ASYMCHEM LIFE SCI & TECHNOLOGY TIANJIN 4 China KANEKA CORP 3 Japan NOF CORP 3 Japan UNIV TOKYO 3 Japan I-SENS INC 3 South Korea BRASKEM SA 3 Brazil FERMENTA BIOTECH LTD 3 India 3.3. Recycling strategies for the circularity The following section discusses current and emerging recycling technologies suitable for the recovery of thermosetting polymers. The goal of this section is to demonstrate their advantages and shortcomings that need to be addressed. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 3.4. Current recycling techniques While recycling thermoset polymers remains a significant challenge in terms of the environmental and economic sustainability, several recycling technologies are currently in use. These can be categorised into mechanical, thermal, and chemical processes. Mechanical recycling, which involves grinding waste material into small particles, allows for direct reuse, but results in a lower quality of the recycled material. Despite being cost-effective, the inferior properties of mechanically recycled materials limit their value. Thermal recycling, particularly pyrolysis, is a method currently favoured by the industry. Pyrolysis subjects waste material to high temperatures in an oxygen-free environment, breaking it down into gas and char. This process, however, produces hazardous waste (Klose et al. 2023) and results in significant material loss and limited recyclability. Despite its drawbacks in terms of energy use and emissions, pyrolysis is economically viable and can handle difficult-to-recycle plastic waste. It also allows for the integration of existing fossil systems, such as replacing naphtha with pyrolysis oil in steam crackers. However, this reliance on steam cracker capacities poses risks to the EU’s decarbonisation goals and leads to the infrastructure lock-in, with negative future implications (SYSTEMIQ 2022). Table 3 summarises some of the main characteristics of currently available recycling technologies. Table 3 Summary of advantages and disadvantages of major recycling technologies used for recycling of thermosets. Source: (Bernatas et al. 2021; Chen et al. 2023; GarciaGutierrez et al. 2023). Type Recycling technology Advantages Disadvantages Mechanical Crushing, grinding  Application at room temperature  Simple and cost effective processes  Low purity and short fiber length for the recycled carbon fibrer (rCFs) - limited value of rCFs  Generation of hazardous dust Chemical Solvolysis  Lower energy input compared to other established recycling processes  Long, clean fibres  High recovery of the matrix  Retention of mechanical properties  Suitable for homogeneous plastics only  Susceptible to process contaminants, such as heavy metals or additives  High feedstock volumes needed for economic feasibility  High costs through expensive equipment  Possible use of hazardous solvents Thermal Pyrolysis  Suitable for the depolymerisation  High energy and temperature requirements Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. of hard to recycle plastic waste streams  Brief recovery of carbon fibres (CFs)  Accumulation of carbon deposits on the surface of the rCFs requires additional hightemperature oxidation treatment  Products may need upgrading before further use  Char contamination Thermal Gasification  Advanced polymer breakdown and possibility of hydrogen production  Suitable for mixed plastic waste  High energy and temperature requirements  Gas emissions  Sensitive to some contaminants  Produced syngas requires upgrading before further use  Formation of solid residue affects operation and produced gas quality  Significant oxidative reactions in the rCFs, resulting in a substantial decline in their mechanical properties. 3.5. Chemical recycling of thermosets Chemical recycling technologies are considered crucial for enhancing the circularity of plastics and assisting the EU meeting recycled content targets. Chemical recycling enables the recovery of monomers and oligomers, which can be reused and is currently deemed a most promising technology for the thermosets recycling. However, it remains an emerging technology, not yet deployed on a large industrial scale. Consequently, the operation of chemical recycling plants in the EU is limited in both the number and production capacity. Conventional chemical recycling involves breaking down epoxy polymers into smaller molecules through pre-treatment with strong catalysts, such as NaOH, peracetic acids, nitric acid, ionic liquids, or metal catalysts (Klose et al. 2023). Although conventional chemical recycling seems economically beneficial, it is not without problems in terms of environmental impact, as the processes involve the use of a large amount of energy and strong chemicals. Moreover, conventional chemical recycling methods generally result in a reduction of the recycled material properties. Particularly the fibres often suffer from the harsh processing (Klose et al. 2023; Morici and Dintcheva 2022). One chemical recycling method regarded as suitable to recycle epoxy polymers is solvolysis, which allows for recovering unaltered fillers. Although its economic feasibility is still limited due to the lack of largescale processes and the need for expensive equipment (Morici and Dintcheva 2022), its main advantage is the relatively high quality of Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. recycled products obtained, which is comparable to the quality of virgin raw materials (AIMPLAS 2022). One of the most promising strategies in the development of new thermoset materials is the concept of inherent (in-build) recyclability and degradability. These are expected to help overcome the challenges associated with thermoset composite recycling and the high recycling costs. Over the past decade, a new area of research has emerged, focusing on creating matrix removal for recycling through low-energy molecular de-bonding or reversible covalent networks. This has led to the development of novel thermoset materials with built-in functions enabling degradability (Morici and Dintcheva 2022). Using chemical recycling, thermoset composites could be successfully degraded, facilitating the recovery of mono-oligomers and fillers using solvents. However, the ecological and economical sustainability of the current processes, which use hazardous solvents and strong catalysts for the recovery of mono-oligomers of thermosets, needs to be improved. This suggests the use of alternative solvents (e.g. water, alcohol, methanol, ethanol, etc.) and/or catalytic agents (e.g. chemicals and/or irradiation absorbers) or irradiations (e.g., electron beam, ultra violet (UV) irradiation, gamma irradiation, etc.) for the recovery of high-value fillers from thermoset composite materials (Morici and Dintcheva 2022). 3.6. Sustainable recycling approaches As previously described, conventional recycling methods have several shortcomings with regard to the environmental impact. Therefore, research has recently intensified to develop more sustainable methods. In addition to the development of new recycling approaches for conventional, fossil-based epoxy, current research efforts are also dedicated to bio-degradable epoxy resins (Maiti et al. 2022). Sustainable recycling approaches for thermoset materials involve biocatalytical recycling and biochemical degradation. These methods offer some advantageous properties, such as milder process conditions and high substrate specificity, which help to diminish the environmental footprint. Notably, the use of oxidative enzymes has emerged as a promising strategy for the degradation of non-hydrolysable polymers. Enzymes, such as peroxidases and laccases, enable the breakdown of complex structures. However, there remains a significant need for further R&D around biodegradation approaches for epoxy polymers (Klose et al. 2023). Research is essential to exploit the full potential of oxidative enzymes for epoxy recycling and to address challenges of recalcitrant Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. epoxy degradation, limited enzyme stability, and robust biocatalysts development (Klose et al. 2023). Currently, biocatalytic recycling (or enzymatic recycling) is employed to recycle polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibres, although the method has the potential to be applied to a broader range of plastic waste (AIMPLAS 2022). Studies have shown that this recycling process can reduce environmental impacts by up to 95%, while also contributing to socio-economic benefits, including the creation of local jobs at material recovery facilities. Since the technology is in the early stages of development, it has not yet been applied on a large industrial scale, and there is room for improvements and cost reductions. In the depolymerisation process, the cost of enzymes is among the key cost drivers (Singh et al. 2021). 4. Value chain of the SSbD epoxy resin ESTELLA is developing several strategies to establish a degradable epoxy resin, which allows a recycling loop from of end-of-life products into new product manufacturing processes according to the EU Commission's safe and sustainable by design guideline. The main recycling strategies of ESTELLA are:  biotechnological degradation (degrade the reinforced epoxy composites to basal molecules NH3 and/or CO2 (depending on the composition) and  recycling to recover natural fibres, epoxy resins, precursors, mixtures of them or by-products of the process. In Figure 5 the material cycle is illustrated on the basis of the value chain of epoxy resin products. The value chain is divided into the raw material production, manufacturing and use, and end-of-life management of the product. The cycle of traditional fossil epoxy resin production, used as a benchmark, and of degradable fossil epoxy resin as well as of degradable bio-epoxy resin are assigned to the production stages and stakeholders. At the end of the value chain, the secondary raw material derived from the degraded products are returned to the production cycle for re-use. However, the main challenge is to ensure that the secondary resources are of a comparable quality with the primary resources they replace (Faulstrich et al. 2023). Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Figure 5 Schematic overview of the value chains of traditional fossil epoxy resin (upper, blue flow chart) and degradable fossilor biobased epoxy resin (lower diagram). 4.1. Value chain of the fossil-based epoxy resins: status quo Fossil-based feedstock: For the generation of fossil-based thermosets, feedstocks based on fossil oil or gas are used. First, the fossil-based feedstock undergoes processing and separation (Richard Carl Müller 2021). During the processing, chlorine and benzene are extracted, which are the precursors of bisphenol A (BPA) and epichlorohydrin, needed for the epoxy resin curing reaction (Richard Carl Müller 2021; (Atsuomi Shundo et al.). For the separation of benzene, the cracking process is commonly used, which involves high temperatures, while for obtaining chlorine, the membrane process is deployed (Richard Carl Müller 2021). The raw material production is dominated by companies, such as Dow Chemical Company, LyondellBasell, Exxon Mobil, SABIC, INEOS, BASF, ENI, LG Chem, Chevron Phillips Chemical and Lanxess. Some of these companies act as B2B partners, selling monomers to plastics processors or producing them internally (PRI Priniciples for responsible Investment 2019). Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. scale. By 2022, there have been 2,655 biorefineries in the EU, the majority of which (92.5%) operate at commercial scale, while the remaining share are pilot facilities. In the EU, Germany, France, Sweden, Italy and Finland have the highest number of biorefineries. Notably, Sweden, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, Estonia, Denmark, Latvia and Germany (in decreasing order) are the EU countries with the highest density of biorefineries (number of biorefineries per km2) (Vrachioli et al. 2023). Around 20% of all operational biorefineries in the EU is based on pulping of wood feedstock (lignocellulosic wood/forestry) using secondary feedstocks (e.g. residues from forestry and forest-based industries) (Platt, R., Bauen, A., Reumerman, P. et al. 2021). The location of biorefineries varies significantly between countries and is heavily influenced by the availability of raw materials within each region. Hence, Northern Europe has a large number of wood-based feedstock biorefineries. Conversion of the bio-based components into degradable thermosets: In ESTELLA, the lignin backbone undergoes transesterification to produce reversible ADCAN, as described in the fossil-based epoxy value chain above. To form a lignin based resin network, the amine curing agent is used. To date, bio-based epoxy has been predominantly cured using commercially available non bio-based curing agents, as the production of bio-based polyamines is not well established yet. Only a few biocuring agents have reached the market, such as Croda's Priamine®, which is derived from dimerized fatty acids. Further, ESTELLA introduces a DDCAN network into the bio-based backbone by using the industrially well-established thermo-reversible Diels Alder reaction (Tiz et al. 2023). Due to this reaction, the properties of the material can change in viscosity through an external stimulus, allowing reshaping, recycling or reprocessing. Fibre extraction: To justify the cost with added value, new strategies need to be developed to make bio-based thermosets more attractive for the industry by improving their performance. For this purpose, ESTELLA’s bio-based epoxy thermosets are reinforced with natural fibres. Composite production: In the bio-based approach, ESTELLA uses the same methods for the composite production as described in the fossil based value chain. Product conversion and use is described in the fossil-based value chain. The best performing bio-based materials (based on DDCAN or ADCAN) containing continuous and discontinuous fibres, are used to meet certain product requirements. Depending on the type of fibres, different performance characteristics, such as strength or lightness can be achieved. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. End-of-life management: for recycling routes of bio-based polymers, ESTELLA adopts and further develops the available chemical and mechanical recycling techniques. In addition, ESTELLA focuses on biotechnological recycling and biodegradation of the composite by using microorganisms and enzymes. It involves the usage of a wild type organisms, genetic modified organism (GMO) microorganism or enzymes in defined mode conditions (controlled or uncontrolled). For this recycling mode, suitable degraders are being screened for both biobased and fossil-based thermosets. Such biotechnological techniques require a confined environment, which has an impact on cost due to:  need of additional fermenters to achieve certain culture conditions (e.g. nutrient supplementation, temperature, pH);  by-product generation;  need of the downstream processing;  need of mechanical pre-treatment to support degradation of the composite material by enzymes and microorganisms. ESTELLA is planning to use enzymes overexpressed in Escherichia coli and/or Pseudomonas or Rhodococcus to degrade epoxy resins. Furthermore, ESTELLA screens microbial enzymes of own culture collections as well as uses synthetic biology for strain improvement and evolution of epoxy degradative enzymes. ESTELLA’s biotechnological process offers several advantages:  it does not require harsh operating conditions (e.g. high temperature and high pressure),  lower energy consumption,  cost efficiency due to lower operating costs, and  reduced greenhouse gas emissions (Lee et al. 2023). Detailed description of ESTELLA's recycling method is provided in the Deliverable 1.4. The enzyme supplier market is currently dominated by many European companies, such as Novozymes, Royal DSM, AB Enzymes and BASF. Another major player - DuPont - is located in the US. These companies provide customizable products or can act as strategic partners for their customers (Mordor intelligence 2023a). Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 4.3. Major requirements, potentials and challenges along the value chain Due to the different value chains enabled by the ESTELLA’s R&D route, different requirements and challenges might emerge that need to be addressed. In the following section, techno-economic requirements for fossil and bio-based composites will be discussed in more detail, followed by the description of some potential solutions. Techno-economic challenges 4.3.1. Costs 4.3.1.1. The market implementation of ESTELLA's R&D outputs relies to a large extent on the total cost of the production and recycling processes. In the production of bio-based plastics, the main cost drivers are raw materials, energy, labour and capital costs, resulting in a price of around $2.62/kg (Wellenreuther et al. 2021). In comparison, the price of epoxy resin thermoset is $4.50/kg 19 (Vasic 2020). However, the production of fibre reinforced composites - usually using carbon or glass fibres - is associated with much higher costs. Their costs range between 17$ and 22$ per kg (Nunna et al. 2019; Verrey et al. 2006). With an average market price of natural fibres of $2.23/kg, the use of natural degradable fibres has the potential to reduce costs significantly (DFNI 2022). However, the costs of the backbone material of ESTELLA’s route, used in bio-based materials are higher compared to the status quo thermosets. The average cost of producing lignin-based epoxy resins amounts to 9.90$/kg (Vasic 2020). However, at this point of time it is difficult to estimate total costs for the ESTELLA’s approach to develop CAN-based vitrimers. It is evident that ESTELLA relies on an efficient supply chain and access to resources for the economic success of its R&D outputs. With regard to the fossil-based materials, the main challenge is the price fluctuation of fossil fuels. In contrast, the feedstock for the bio-based components is readily and abundantly available across the EU. Overall, the upstream supply chain for ESTELLA’s products is characterised by a good availability and access to resources. It can be easily organised in the regional context saving costs and reducing the environmental impact. 19 The price of fossil-based thermosets is highly volatile and may vary widely across time owing to a high volatility of oil and gas prices. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Challenges and requirements in production 4.3.1.2. There is a number of technical challenges linked to the production processes that need to be addressed. Firstly, the production of bio-polymers can be hampered by low purity and reactivity of the natural components. This necessitates additional treatment and purification, which may lead to higher costs. To support cost reduction researchers and producers can consider:  using environmentally sustainable organic waste and by-products as feedstock available in large quantities, such as lignin and cellulose (European commision 2022);  increasing reactivity of natural components by introducing reactive groups. Secondly, within the fibre preparation, lower fibre adhesion properties of natural fibres can affect the mechanical properties of the final product (Gauri S. Deshmukh 2022). Moreover, the required additional steps of cleaning or modifying fibres, as described in the section 4.2.1, and the large-scale production of composites are currently the major challenges for the industry (Maiti et al. 2022). Further, not all composite manufacturing methods enable large scale production (Schenk et al. 2022). Therefore, traditional industrial methods designed for synthetic fibres cannot be used for the production of thermosets using hemp fibres, because hemp fibres degrade at above 200°C (Gauri S. Deshmukh 2022). However, the use of vitrimers offers an opportunity to adopt established processes (Schenk et al. 2022). One of the most important requirements of end users is that the product must meet certain performance requirements. For the broad application of bio-based thermosets, their performance characteristics should be comparable with that of conventional thermosets. A general problem with bio-based fibres is that it is difficult to achieve performance characteristics equivalent to conventional fibers. Hence, still a lot of R&D is needed to overcome this challenge. As the production processes for bio-based thermosets is not well established yet, there is still a lot of potential to reduce costs, improve productivity and the environmental impact. Following aspects can be considered to achieve this:  use of efficient and environmentally friendly fibre modifying method, applicable in the industry; Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.  automation of the composites manufacturing process; 20  use of out-of-autoclave method for the composite production;  adaptation of synthesis reaction time and continuous batch synthesis to industrial mode (Ospina 2023);  benchmarking experiments to compare the performance of the materials, including aging analysis of the end-material. Challenges and requirements in chemical 4.3.1.3. recycling For large-scale plants, chemical recycling technologies have yet to prove their viability (European commision 2020). The following hurdles still need to be overcome:  design of the reactor, where the reaction takes place due to e.g. the use of corrosive additives and the peripheral equipment for continuous feeding and pumping;  clogging and fouling of the reactor and peripheral equipment during the process (Garcia-Gutierrez et al. 2023);  high consumption of solvents;  high energy consumption (Sokoli et al. 2017);  accurate classification and sorting of waste streams, as even small amounts of impurities can affect the reaction (Lee et al. 2023);  prior separation of the thermoset fraction, resulting in additional costs;  property deterioration of the recycled resin (tensile modulus) and fibres. The following goals need to be achieved to address current challenges in chemical recycling:  to avoid material mixtures, the recycling processes must run in parallel (PRI Priniciples for responsible Investment 2019);  for hydrolysis, the type of acid and pH controller may need to be adjusted (Kazemi et al. 2021a);  increase sustainability of chemical recycling by reusing the solvent (Sokoli et al. 2017); 20 Automation can help save up to 85% of the time and cost (Maiti et al. 2022). Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.  decrease working temperature during the process (Sokoli et al. 2017);  complete recovery of the chemicals used in the recycling process of epoxy resins to avoid the release of carcinogenic BPA into the environment (e.g. waste water) (Dattilo et al. 2022). The supercritical approach in chemical recycling proposed by ESTELLA as a second route requires higher temperatures and pressures and are therefore energy intensive. The energy consumption can be reduced through using:  supercritical methanol for lower reaction conditions and easier extraction of the end-product;  longer reaction time at a lower temperature (Kazemi et al. 2021a). Challenges and requirements in biotechnological 4.3.1.4. recycling ESTELLA is developing an environmentally friendly alternative for the degradation and recycling of plastic waste through the implementation of biotechnological strategies. The main challenge with biotechnological recycling is that biocatalysts tend to be less tolerant to harsh conditions (e.g. incompatible temperature, pH, ionic strength and solvent). The establishment of a new biotechnological process is costly and difficult to predict for the industrial up-scaled mode. In addition, the biodegradation requires optimal growth conditions for microorganisms (Lee et al. 2023). If GMOs are used, they must be approved according to certain standards. It is therefore preferable to:  use wild type microorganisms or environmental degraders,  use of tolerant microorganisms and biocatalysts,  analyse process scale, inoculation volume, and optimise conditions to reduce enzyme and production costs. 4.4. Strategic insights Through the development of a novel bio-based epoxy resins with inherent recyclability, ESTELLA project holds a huge technological and economic potential while contributing to the green transition and circularity of the thermoset materials. On the whole, the EU offers favourable framework conditions for the market uptake of both reprocessible fossil and bio-based thermoset composites to be developed by ESTELLA. More specifically, the abundant availability and access to biological resources and raw Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. materials, the presence of a large and advanced chemical and biotechnological industries as well as the regulatory environment aimed at the support of advanced and sustainable technologies would facilitate the successful market implementation and development of ESTELLA’s products. Furthermore, it is evident that methods and techniques applied by ESTELLA are well suited for the integration in the current production workflows. However, there is a number of challenges and requirements, which need to be addressed at different stages of the value chain to ensure the commercial success of the ESTELLA’s products. Some of them can be tackled by the researches and producers directly, while other imply more complex and coordinated activities, as described in chapter 6. The value chain analysis demonstrated that there are some cost related challenges and cost saving potentials that need to be considered during the R&D and production processes. The development of new reprocessible and recyclable thermosets are associated with higher costs, which are expected to decrease as technologies mature and learning effects in the production are realised. One of the main challenges in R&D is to achieve performance characteristics for the degradable and bio-based fibre-reinforced thermosets, which are comparable with conventional carbon or glass fibre reinforced thermosets. The engagement of and close collaboration with industrial stakeholders would be highly beneficial when developing and implementing processes towards industrial design. Therefore, a network of industry partners to support ESTELLA's journey from product development via product launch to a feasible recycling process in a circular economy is necessary. Apart from the necessity to overcome technological and economic challenges during R&D and the production processes, the success of ESTELLA relies to a large extent on the availability of an industrial waste management system. This is discussed in more detail in chapters 5 and 6. 5. Framework conditions for the market uptake and development Overall, the factors influencing the successful uptake and development of the market for the bio-based and reprocessible thermosets can be divided in the following categories: 1) economic, 2) political, 3) technological, 4) social acceptance, and 5) application specific. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 5.1. Economic factors The economic factors encompass the major cost categories as well as some economically relevant aspects related to the establishment of an industrial waste management infrastructure, as the economic success of ESTELLA and similar projects relies to a large extent on these factors. Costs are put in the broader context to consider external effects and cost that accrue to society through the production and use of nonsustainable and non-circular materials, products and techniques. Hence, the environmental impact needs to be included in the cost calculation, to reflect all cost factors relevant for economies and societies in the context of production and recycling of novel materials. Resource costs 5.1.1. The demand and the subsequent implementation on the market of sustainable (bio-based) plastics correlates strongly with the price of fossil based raw materials. In the absence of a pertinent political regulatory framework, higher oil prices generally lead to higher demand and substitution of fossil-based through bio-based plastics. The prices of fossil based raw materials were quite volatile in the last years. This dynamics has been recently further reinforced due to the geopolitical crisis related to the war of Russia against Ukraine. Owing to the current increases in the world production and consumption - primarily driven by the demand in India and China - of the crude oil, its price went up significantly from US$20 per barrel in July 2020 to over US$100 per barrel at the end of 2022. In 2023 the price of crude oil has been somewhat on decline reaching the price of US$84 on November 9, 2023 21 . The price of gasoline followed a similar trajectory: it went up in 2022 to US$3.97 per gallon and is US$3.55 as of November 9, 2023. Ceteris paribus, the costs of bio-based feedstock used for the production of alternative plastics also impact the market development of bio-based plastics. Current geo-political developments linked to the Russian military aggression against Ukraine and associated disruptions in the supply of agricultural products have led to their price increase and supply shortages. In addition, the climate change also negatively impacts the agroeconomics through frequently occurring droughts. Further aspects, such as population growth and the related land scarcity will also affect the feedstock prices. Moreover, uncertainty about feedstock quantity and quality as well as the limited local feedstock availability and 21 Prices refer to the Brent crude oil. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. seasonality of natural feedstock and fibres might be a barrier to industrial production of bio-based composites. Production costs 5.1.2. There are many cost factors within the production and reprocessing of the fibre reinforced thermoset materials that impact the development of sustainable and reprocessible thermoset materials market. Reduction of manufacturing costs is an important aspect for a successful implementation and uptake of new composite materials. Relevant aspects and challenges to be addressed were discussed in more detail in the context of the value chain analysis. To reduce the manufacturing costs, the present trend is focusing on more automation during manufacturing (Maiti et al. 2022). A significant potential to reduce manufacturing costs offers the ramping up of production capacities and operation at a large scale combined with the continuous realisation of learning effects. Energy costs constitute a notable cost factor, as major processing procedures during both the manufacturing and recycling require a lot of energy. Hence, the solutions targeting the reduction of energy consumption have a high priority from the economic and sustainability point of view. Table 4 presents data on major environmental and economic characteristics of different recycling technologies applied to the recycling of 1 kg carbon fibre reinforced polymer. Although the current balance of recycling seems unfavourable in terms of environmental impact and costs, the overall statistics relativises, when put into the currently dominant production practice context. The production of virgin resin is emission-intensive, amounting to 86 kg CO2 per 1 kg of resin (Vora et al. 2021), while optimised chemical recycling emits less than 2 kg CO2 per 1 kg of recyclate. According to the literature, the energy consumption for recycling of CFRPs using a chemical method accounts for around 20–30% of the energy required for the production of virgin carbon fibres (vCFs) (Fazio et al. 2023). Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Table 4 Environmental and economic characteristics of major recycling technologies applied for recycling of 1 kg carbon fibre reinforced polymer. Source: (Chen et al. 2023; Shehab et al. 2022; Xue et al. 2022). Note: CO2eq/kg = CO2 equivalent per kilogram. Recycling technology Processing temperature in C° Primary energy demand (MJ/kg) Unit cost of recycled fibre ($/kg) Global warming potential CO2eq/kg Mechanical Room temperature 0.27 - 2.03 0 – 3.5 0.085 –1.806 Pyrolysis (thermal) 400 - 700 3 - 30 1.6 – 5.5 5.4 Solvolysis (chemical) 65 – 400 19.2 - 91 14 – 28 1.53 Likewise, the cost of producing virgin epoxy resin is significantly higher than the cost of recycling it, which provides a strong incentive from both economic and environmental perspectives to recover and recycle thermosets. For example, the production cost of carbon fibres is approx. US$ 33 per 1 kg, while its recycling cost is usually around 60% – 70% of the production cost of vCFs, having the potential to further decrease as the technology and its application advance. In some instances significant reduction in carbon fibre recycling cost has already been achieved. Also in case of the upscaling of the production capacity, the costs can be diminished dramatically. For example, it was demonstrated that through increasing the production volume to 100,000 kg per year, the carbon fiber recycling cost decreases to US$ 15 per kg. Consequently, the rCFs hold significant advantages over vCFs not only in terms of energy consumption, environmental impact, but are also in terms of costs. Therefore, the recycling and reuse of CFRP waste represents an attractive option for industrial players (Chen et al. 2023). Waste management and recycling infrastructure costs 5.1.3. The disposal and the overall waste management costs need to be taken into account when considering economic costs of bio-based plastics. This involves the total costs linked to the waste management (e.g. plastics collection and transport) and costs related to the recycling treatment of used products. However, the costs of non-recyclability of thermoplastic composites became also much higher in the last years. Particularly due to the ban on waste import in some major markets, and the introduction of restrictive landfill reduction laws in Europe, the disposal costs in the EU increased. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. willing to pay a premium of 27% on average for products that deliver on sustainability promises 29 . However, a lot of potential buyers still have a limited awareness and understanding of bio-based product concepts. The latter creates substantial risks for the acceptance and positive market development of bio-based products. Further challenges are linked to concerns of different social groups with regard to using GMOs as well as biomass resources that stand in competition with food production and have environmental footprint on land use. Much higher acceptance have biobased products, for which second and third generation feedstocks are used, such as residuals and waste streams (Filho et al. 2022). Some social acceptance challenges relate to the need of considerable behavioural change for circularity regarding how the public consume, use, and dispose of plastic. Bio-based and recyclable thermosets require the establishment of well-functioning industrial collection and sorting ecosystem. This calls for and relies strongly on the consumer education (SYSTEMIQ 2022). One of the major hurdles for commercialisation of sustainable composites in other countries is the lack of awareness and R&D in developing nations, where feedstock and natural fibres are abundantly available (Maiti et al. 2022). 5.5. Requirements of major application areas In order to improve the environmental impact while meeting the performance requirements for specific product, it is crucial that individual application-based requirements are taken into account (Post et al. 2020). In the following, specific framework conditions and requirements of two major application areas of epoxy polymers targeted by ESTELLA - construction and mobility sectors - will be outlined. Construction 5.5.1. Status Quo 5.5.1.1. Demand for plastic in the construction sector is constantly increasing. It is projected to increase from 10 Mt today to 15 Mt by 2050 (SYSTEMIQ 2022). The rise in demand is primarily attributed to the housing shortage in 29 https://www2.deloitte.com/xe/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumerbehavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker/sustainable-products-customerexpectations.html Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. many EU countries and the necessity to build new dwellings as well as with a renovation wave generated by the EU’s and individual countries’ strategies to improve the energy and resource efficiency of the building stock. At the same time construction plastic faces serious sustainability challenges with low levels of circularity (20%) and virtually no reuse of plastic components (SYSTEMIQ 2022). Non-destructive demolition is very difficult, as plastic components are typically integrated in buildings and structural elements, while on-site sorting is very limited because of logistical challenges and poor economics. This and the low value of plastic waste from demolition, the low disposal costs, and the general preference for speed of demolition over material recovery result in minimal collection of plastic waste in the construction. The longevity of plastic construction products also introduces significant challenges to future collection, sorting and recovery, as plastic designed in the past is far less recyclable (SYSTEMIQ 2022). The construction sector is considered as particularly conservative when it comes to introducing changes. With the deep-set norms to date, limited industry focus on the circularity of plastic, business-as-usual operations has made it challenging to develop and implement new products and practices, improve material recovery in demolition, and establish waste logistics in the sector. Significant efforts are therefore needed to foster a sector-wide transition towards more sustainable and circular practices (SYSTEMIQ 2022). The Circular Economy Action Plan 2.0 (CEAP 2.0) is supposed to drive the transition in all sectors, including construction. The upcoming legislation is going to introduce mandatory targets for recycled content and material-specific recycling targets for plastic construction products (SYSTEMIQ 2022). Product and logistical requirements 5.5.1.2. Thermoset composites, such as sheet moulding compounds (SMC), bulk moulding compounds (BMC), and new lines of high-performance composites (Ultrium, Fortium, Flamevex and Alluralite) are deployed in demanding high performance construction applications. Applications that use thermoset materials include door skins, fencing, roofing and window panels. Thermoset composites provide dimensional control, stain and corrosion resistance. Besides sustaining critical physical properties under exposure to stressful conditions, thermoset composites for construction must maintain an aesthetically appealing appearance over time. For example, a bright white window frame must maintain its colour Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. and gloss when exposed to weather conditions or cleaning (SYSTEMIQ 2022). It is important that design for recycling is implemented in the near term, in order to overcome the current barriers to recycling in construction as soon as possible. Additionally, on-site sorting and separate collection for plastics and thermoset composites need to be established. However, to make recycling economically feasible, collection rates and volumes must increase. The adoption of advanced sorting technologies (e.g., robotic sorting) can help significantly increase the efficiency of sorting. The use of robotic technologies would also make decentralised operations possible, while reducing transport costs (SYSTEMIQ 2022). Transition towards demolition and increasing on-site sorting and separate collection of plastic waste requires significant efforts on the part of the industry and policy makers. From the perspective of the construction sector, the overall economics of the end-of-life management need to be significantly improved to make it commercially attractive. This should go hand-in-hand with scaling up of chemical recycling to achieve the circularity goals for the construction plastic waste. If scaled, chemical recycling could manage an estimated 23% of total plastic waste generated by the construction sector, producing 1.1 Mt of chemical recyclate by 2050, in addition to the 2.3 Mt of mechanical recyclate, thus enabling higher value recycling. Chemical recycling is currently considered particularly relevant for plastic waste from the construction sector due the limited implemented recycling design in materials currently used and owing to the longevity of plastic components in buildings (SYSTEMIQ 2022). Mobility 5.5.2. Status Quo 5.5.2.1. At present, an automobile requires approx. 120 kg of plastic, 20% of them are composites (Stieven Montagna et al. 2023). Driven by light-weighting trends, plastic demand in the automotive sector is constantly growing. According to estimates, the average weight of plastic per vehicle in Europe will increase by approx. a third relative to today by 2050. With the rise in electric vehicles, the trend towards light-weighting is going to continue meaning that the reliance on high performance polymers, including carbon fibre reinforced thermosets, will sustain to achieve higher energy efficiencies as well as a greater range and load capacity (SYSTEMIQ 2022). This trend expands to all other transportation means. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. However, even with the End-of-Life Vehicle (ELV) Directive being in force, the waste plastic has currently very low levels of recovery: only 9% of plastic is recycled or reused. Plastic used in vehicles is highly diverse, distributed and integrated in complex composites, making an effective end-of-life management particularly challenging. Therefore, the dismantling of plastic components from ELVs remains very low. Although it in principle allows for a clean uncontaminated waste stream, the economics are rather unfavourable. Automation has to date been hardly possible to improve the productivity owing to the high diversity and complex composite structure of vehicle components. As a result, the predominant waste management practice for plastic from vehicles is still the automotive shredder. The lack of advanced technology capacity in the EU, economic and logistical barriers to dismantling result in disposing of the ELV plastic in landfill or, preferably, via incineration with energy recovery (SYSTEMIQ 2022). However, with an increasing share of plastic in vehicles, the environmental burdens associated with ELV treatment are getting even larger along with the pressure to introduce sustainable technologies for the end-of-life management bringing into focus the need for plastic recycling. The growing demand for composites reinforced with CF in the automotive industry has aroused interest of car manufacturers in the recovery of CFs from composites. The interest is primarily linked to economic considerations of reducing costs through using recycled material (Stieven Montagna et al. 2023). As a result, some leading companies are already recycling and developing CF recovery methodologies, such as the BMW Group and Airbus. The BMW Group, for example, uses recycled CF in the fabrication of some of its automobiles, such as the i3 and i8. The company collaborates with Boeing on carbon fibre recycling. Mercedes-Benz uses recycled CF to be applied in the rear and front bumpers for its luxury car AMG GTC launched in 2018. The Chevrolet Corvette uses composites containing recycled CF in the body panel assemblies, including doors, decklids, quarter panels, and fenders. Ford Motor Company is another automaker using recycled composites recovered from aircraft and bicycle waste in its car parts to reduce costs (Stieven Montagna et al. 2023). Boeing and Airbus together generate more than 454,000 kg of cured and uncured carbon fibre waste every year. The waste of the entire supply chain amounts to almost 2 million kg per year. This urged the industry to better handle the thermoset waste. As a result, some companies, such as Airbus, have adopted a producer responsibility. Which means that during the production the company focuses on efficient use of material and recycling of the aircraft EoL. The company Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. allocates approx. 95% of its waste for recycling and integrates ca. 5% of the recycled material back into the production process (Stieven Montagna et al. 2023). Product and logistical requirements 5.5.2.2. Thermoset composites used in the car manufacturing and aircraft should be high strength, have good dimensional stability, and low weight, while being aesthetically appealing. They have to maintain demanding properties, like extreme weather and operating conditions, dynamic loading, withstand electrical currents, as well as humidity and corrosion. High potential for the application of thermoset composites offers selfdriving cars, as they require a large amount of advanced electronics to be integrated. The development of recyclable thermosets for applications in electronics is a relatively new field of interest. In this case, contrary to structural composites and rubbers, functional properties are more important than mechanical performance. Hence, recycling technology should focus on these aspects (Post et al. 2020). For the broad use of recyclable thermoset polymers in the car manufacturing industry, advanced post shredder technologies need to be further developed and scaled up widely across the EU. Recovering of plastic, at least of economically valuable and ecologically more demanding plastic, should therefore be given priority over the shredder residue. However, due to the high costs and low productivity of the dismantling of plastic components, dismantling rates are expected to remain relatively low being largely restricted to the dismantling of large monomaterial in the short and medium perspectives. This underlines the urgent need to improve dismantling technologies including designing composite parts integrated in vehicles for dismantling, on the one hand. On the other hand, policy makers need to create a more restrictive and mandatory legislative framework that increases the costs for incineration and landfilling so that recycling becomes a more economically viable route. The disposal costs are currently relatively low and thus do not encourage investments in new and more advanced technologies on a broad scale (SYSTEMIQ 2022). 6. Outlook and overall strategic insights 6.1. Growth opportunities The demand for epoxy resins is expected to continue in the future, especially for fibre-reinforced composites. Solutions that are scalable and reach technical properties comparable with fossil-based materials Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. have great market potential. For the economic success of novel technologies, it is critical that these technologies allow lower energy consumption, help improve the quality of the output material while reducing process and product cost and lowering environmental impact. More sustainable epoxy polymers are expected to be used in a wide range of applications, particularly in the construction, the broad transportation sector and in a wide variety of consumer products, indoor and outdoor applications. The demand for lightweight materials is increasing due to the need for the energy efficiency and reduced emissions, driving the market growth in Europe. The EU is going to be a major market for recyclable thermosets and is likely to witness the highest growth in the foreseeable future. The transportation segments, construction, aerospace & defence are going to drive the demand for recycling of thermosets in the coming years in the region 30 . With a growing demand and a number of materials, applications, and products, the number of manufacturers, converters, and end-users also increases steadily. Significant financial investments have been made into production and marketing to guide and accompany this development. The market data demonstrate a constant growth of sustainable epoxy resins and thermosets as a whole indicating the growing interest of and pressure on the industry to move towards sustainable solutions. As a matter of fact, the increasingly stringent and mandatory circular economy and recycling regulations is a major driver for composites manufacturers and end industries to introduce materials that have either second-life or recyclability potential. On the whole, Europe offers favourable general framework conditions for the development and industrial uptake of novel, sustainable and circular thermosets and to compete globally for future markets and technologies. Among these positive factors that are going to facilitate the market development are:  highly developed economy with globally competitive companies in the chemical and plastic industries;  technological know-how and large innovation potential in biobased and recycling technologies;  industrial users willing to implement sustainable solutions;  educated and ecologically responsible society, and  consumers with relatively high purchasing power. 30 https://www.stratviewresearch.com/327/Recyclable-Thermoset-Market.html Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Although substantial investment on the part on the industry and public sector is required to create a resource-efficient and emissions-abating system, incurring considerable costs to private and public players, the overall benefits would surpass the costs by far, as the recent study conducted by SYSTEMIQ shows (SYSTEMIQ 2022). So, the future market potential is significant, however its dynamics and the magnitude of development will depend on a variety of factors. Major factors that impact the market development of new products, such as ESTELLA’s, will be summarised in the next section drawing the most relevant strategic insights that need to be taken into account when preparing the products for the market implementation. 6.2. Strategic insights for successful market development From the perspective of market players aspects, such as high production costs, low performance or uncertainty regarding the quality of new materials represent major market barriers. However, there are a lot of further aspects that should be sufficiently addressed and various challenges overcome to achieve a sound market development. Furthermore, a number of requirements and needs have to be addressed to ensure a significant and stable demand for new materials and the recycled content. Address inefficiencies across the value chain 6.2.1. As was shown in Chapter 4, the value chain for recyclable and sustainable thermosets is highly complex and involves a large number of stakeholders. The complexity lies particularly in the high interdependency of stakeholders along the value chain. For instance, stakeholders operating at the early stages of the chain influence through their design decisions and choices the recyclability of waste streams later in the chain (Hudson 2023). This implies the necessity of the holistic approach for the establishment of an efficient and economically feasible value chain and a close collaboration between relevant stakeholders. Currently, a variety of inefficiencies and challenges exists that have a direct impact on different stages of the value chain and need to be resolved. The table below provides an overview of main challenges along the value chain and potential measures to overcome them. Some and most relevant of them will be discussed in more detail in the remainder of this chapter. Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Table 5 Overview of main challenges along the value chain and potential measures to overcome them. Elaboration based on (Hudson 2023; OECD 2018). Inefficiencies Measures to undertake to overcome challenges Inefficient value chain  Close collaboration of stakeholders at all stages of the value chain  Improving of sorting and recycling performance through the standardisation of materials Lack of sorting and recycling capacities  Substantial investments and establishment of the viable sorting and recycling logistical infrastructure in the EU  Establishing of collection systems that allow for separate collection and sorting of waste streams into homogenous batches for recycling  Attractive circular business models  Ensuring stability of the sorting and recycling markets: stability of supply of waste streams and demand from converters; increase sorting yield and quality Poor economics of recyclate  Compensatory measures to improve economics of recyclates (tax policy, subsidies, public procurement policies etc.) Limited responsibility of brand owners and consumers  Extend producer responsibility systems in the EU: cost for the end-of-life management may be borne fully or partially by goods’ producers. i.e. producers should contribute to the implementation of a system for collection and sorting of waste streams from their products  Including external costs in prices and introduction of consumer financial compensation/rewards for properly disposed waste products Lack of investments  Materials and products that are bio-based, bio-degradable and recyclable should be prioritised for investment. Policy framework conditions should support and incentivise such investments Poor economics of sorting and recycling  Develop new sorting strategies using advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics to improve efficiency  Reduce the heterogeneity of materials thereby reducing the total amount and type of polymers in the circulation and ensuring sufficient supplies of homogeneous materials No differentiated demand for recycled polymers  Increase price competitiveness through the internalisation of external costs  Implementation of labelling system  Awareness raising campaigns; communication to consumers Uncertainty about quality of products  Introduction of certification standards for recycled plastics  Increased transparency and promotion about information about quality and performance features of new and recycled materials Lack of LCA and economic feasibility data for recycling and recycled products  Once the technique is feasible, Life cycle analysis (LCA) analysis should be conducted and demonstrated combined with economic feasibility analyses Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Ensure a stable demand and supply of materials 6.2.2. The first essential prerequisite for this is to ensure that the quality of materials meets the requirements of end users and the uncertainty concerning different quality aspects is eliminated. This requirement targets the R&D and production stakeholders, as they make decision about the design of materials and undertake R&D efforts to achieve specific quality standards. Meeting high quality standards of end industries will guarantee a steady demand for new, more sustainable and recycled materials. Further, to facilitate the market development, prices must become more stable and competitive relative to conventional materials. The premium prices should be justified through the additional added value of the materials and products made thereof. This involves high quality standards and improved performance of materials, but also improved environmental impact of new and/or recycled materials. These benefits should be made transparent and efficiently communicated to potential users through e.g. a labelling and certification system. Costs of production and recycling processes have an essential role for the market attractiveness and there is still a lot of potential for the optimisation of manufacturing and recycling technologies to decrease costs and improve the efficiency. To provide cost effective and good quality recycled products, optimisation of re-manufacturing protocols and applications are important (Bernatas et al. 2021). Establishment of an industrial End-of-Life management 6.2.3. system Further most essential requirement for the market uptake and investments of private players is the establishment of advanced and economically viable waste management system spanning an efficient collection, sorting and recycling. The quality of sorting and recycling is affected by all upstream players in the plastics value chain, and therefore constitutes a collective responsibility (Hudson 2023). The EU already accommodates some advanced sorting and recycling systems, which are not equally distributed across the region. This provides a good basis for further expansion and optimisation of sorting and recycling capacities in terms of higher efficiency and better economics. However, much remains to be done. Substantial investments need to be made to build sufficient waste management infrastructure. A good functioning market of recycled thermosets and other polymers requires a stable supply of large volumes of well sorted plastic fractions to be recycled on a large scale and operate at high throughput rates for Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. economic feasibility. This poses not only a logistical challenge, but also requires new business models and technological solutions to improve the performance of sorting and recycling industries. This should be combined with the investigation of the potential re-use applications of recyclates to ensure their sufficient demand (Bernatas et al. 2021). A lot of efforts need to be undertaken in the EU regions with little capacity in sorting and recycling. Those involve a majority of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)/Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE) countries and France. Substantial efforts are still required to establish and scale advanced collection and sorting systems in the EU. For the economic viability significant increases must be achieved in the amount of composite waste collected to be fed into recycling. Chemical recycling capacities need to be ramped up to allow large scale operation. Chemical recycling has the potential to be fully integrated in the existing refineries and petrochemical sites. Thereby, existing facilities can be used further, and high safety standards already implemented in refineries and petrochemical sites can be extended to the newly integrated plant. 31 Through the ramping up of production of bio-based plastics and establishment of recycling facilities at industrial scale, economies of scale can be realised that will help optimise processes, foster learning and reduce production costs. Creating favorable policy framework conditions 6.2.4. The European Union excels in regulatory framework that aims at fostering the green transition of industries and sectors, supporting the R&D and industrial uptake of new technologies and products. The material basis and plastic as one of the most widely used material represent one of the main foci of these attempts. The EU’s plastics ecosystem is already adapting to better meet the sustainability and circularity requirements, but not yet fast enough. This particularly applies to creating the necessary framework conditions for the market uptake of sustainable thermoset materials and the necessary recycling infrastructure for their recovery. On the whole, the actions that have been so far undertaken by the industry are not sufficient enough leaving a highly resource inefficient system. The European plastic ecosystem is not on track to achieve key sustainability and circularity goals set out in the EU’s Green Deal and other strategic documents, as measures and individual activities of industrial players do not go far or fast enough. Today, approx. 92% of plastic demand in the EU is fulfilled by virgin plastic (SYSTEMIQ 2022). 31 https://www.k-online.com/en/recycling/vdma-omv-downstream-beate-edl-chemical Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. SYSTEMIQ (2022): ReShaping Plastics. Pathways to a Circular, Climate Neutral Plastics System in Europe. Online verfügbar unter https://plasticseurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SYSTEMIQReShapingPlastics-April2022.pdf. Tiz, D. B.; Vicente, F. A.; Kroflič, A.; Likozar, B. (2023): Lignin-Based Covalent Adaptable Network Polymers─When Bio-Based Thermosets Meet Recyclable by Design. 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Xue, X.; Liu, S.-Y.; Zhang, Z.-Y.; Wang, Q.-Z.; Xiao, C.-Z. (2022): A technology review of recycling methods for fiber-reinforced thermosets. In: Journal of Reinforced Plastics and Composites, 41 (1112), S. 459–480. https://doi.org/10.1177/07316844211055208. Yang, Y.; Xu, Y.; Ji, Y.; Wei, Y. (2021): Functional epoxy vitrimers and composites. In: Progress in Materials Science, 120, S. 100710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmatsci.2020.100710. Yash Rajan (2012): World’s top 7 epoxy resin manufacturers building a stronger foundation for internationally operating industries. Online verfügbar unter https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/blog/worlds-top-epoxyresin-manufacturers/. Zhao, X.; Copenhaver, K.; Wang, L.; Korey, M.; Gardner, D. J.; Li, K.; Lamm, M. E.; Kishore, V.; Bhagia, S.; Tajvidi, M.; Tekinalp, H.; Oyedeji, O.; Wasti, S.; Webb, E.; Ragauskas, A. J.; Zhu, H.; Peter, W. H.; Ozcan, S. (2022): Recycling of natural fiber composites: Challenges and Grant Agreement 101058371 – Project ESTELLA ESTELLA_D6.1 ©ESTELLA - This is the property of ESTELLA Parties: shall not be distributed/reproduced without formal approval of ESTELLA General Assembly. This reflects only the author’s views. The Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. opportunities. In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 177, S. 105962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105962.