Statistical Report: 1st Semester of the II Western Sahara War

Jorge Teixeira* WP/CEAUP/#2022/2 Statistical Report: 1st Semester of the II Western Sahara War * CEAUP Researcher (Team LeaderStatistics Team/Operational Project Coordinator) Abstract This paper results from the application of a statistical analysis process to the conflict that is taking place in Western Sahara. The application of quantitative analysis methods allowed us to understand, in a more precise way, what is really happening in the theatre of operations. By obtaining and analyse this quantitative data, the actual dimension of the conflict emerges. And the Average, Median, Mode and Standard Deviation can also be calculated, and all Data can be put into table, graphs and maps, thus, allowing us to see further patterns like: the most and least attacked place, by total numbers and percentage, but also the frequency in which the attacks occur, in the defined timeframe. The objective of this Paper is to present such information in a cohesive form. Keywords: Western Sahara; War; Statistical Analysis Table of Contents Introduction.................................................................................................................. 5 1. Analysis Methodology ........................................................................................... 6 2. Statistical Analysis of the First Semester - Overview ........................................... 11 3. Statistical Analysis of the First Semester - Detail View ....................................... 16 3.1. Oued Daraa ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2. Saguia El Hamara .................................................................................................... 24 3.3. Rio de Oro ............................................................................................................... 32 4. Maps ................................................................................................................... 42 Graphic 1Western Sahara 1S Total Number of Attacks Region/Quarter ................................. 11 Graphic 21S Totality of Attacks per Region (%) ...................................................................... 12 Graphic 3Percentage of Attacks 1S/Q .................................................................................... 13 Graphic 4Western Sahara 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Quarter .................. 14 Graphic 5Western Sahara 1S Military Encounters Evolution .................................................. 14 Graphic 6-1S Region Totality of Attacks (%) ............................................................................. 18 Graphic 7Oued Daara Military Encounters EvolutionRegion ................................................ 20 Graphic 8Region Oued Daraa S1 Total Number of Attacks ..................................................... 20 Graphic 9Oued Daara Military Encounters Number of Attacks Comparison ........................... 21 Graphic 101S Within Sector Totality of Attacks (%) ................................................................ 21 Graphic 11Oued Daara 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Month ........................ 23 Graphic 12-1S Region Totality of Attacks (%) ........................................................................... 26 Graphic 13-Saguia El Hamara Military Encounters Evolution in 1S ........................................... 28 Graphic 14Region Saguia El Hamara Q1 Total Number of Attacks .......................................... 28 Graphic 151S Within Sector Totality of Attacks (%) ................................................................ 29 Graphic 16Number of Attacks Comparison in Saguia El Hamara in 1S .................................... 30 Graphic 17Saguia El Hamara 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Month ................ 31 Graphic 181S Region Totality of Attacks (%) .......................................................................... 35 Graphic 19Within Sector 1S Attacks Sector/Month ............................................................... 36 Graphic 20Rio de Oro Military Encounters Evolution1S ....................................................... 37 Graphic 211S Within Sector Totality of Attacks (%) ................................................................ 37 Graphic 22Number of Attacks Comparison in Rio de Oro in 1S .............................................. 38 Graphic 23Rio de Oro 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Month .......................... 40 Table 1-1st Semester War Reports Analysis .............................................................................. 11 Table 2-Percentage of Attacks 1S/Q ........................................................................................ 13 Table 3Oued Daraa Region Sectors AnalysisQ1.................................................................... 17 Table 4Oued Daraa Region Sectors AnalysisQ2.................................................................... 17 Table 5 - Oued Daraa Region 1S Totality of Attacks Analysis (%) .............................................. 18 Table 6Western Sahara War1st Quarter War Reports AnalysisOued Daraa Region ............ 19 Table 7Saguia El Hamara Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 ........................................................... 25 Table 8Saguia El Hamara Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 ........................................................... 25 Table 91S Saguia El Hamara Region Totality of Attacks Analysis (%) ....................................... 26 Table 10Western Sahara War1st Semester War Reports AnalysisSaguia El Hamara Region ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Table 11Rio de Oro Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 .................................................................... 33 Table 12Rio de Oro Region Sectors AnalysisQ2 .................................................................... 33 Table 13Rio de Oro Region 1S Totality of Attacks Analysis (%) ............................................... 34 Table 14Western Sahara War1st Semester War Reports AnalysisRio de Oro Region. ......... 35 Map 1-Western Sahara War Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com .................... 10 Map 2-Oued Daraa Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com ...................... 16 Map 3Saguia El Hamara Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com ............. 24 Map 4Rio de Oro Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com ....................... 32 Map 5-Statiscal Map of November 2020 Attacks ..................................................................... 43 Map 6Statistical Map of December 2020 Attacks .................................................................. 43 Map 7Statistical Map of January 2021 Attacks ...................................................................... 43 Map 8Statistical Map of February 2021 Attacks .................................................................... 43 Map 9Statistical Map of March 2021 Attacks ........................................................................ 43 Map 10Statistical Map of April 2021 Attacks ......................................................................... 43 Introduction One of the main objectives of the WSWA Project is to analyse all the sides of this conflict. So, in order to fully grasp what is happening on the ground, a special team was created with the task to establish standards and a work methodology for the statistical retravel and processing of the qualitive data generated by the parts in conflict. The following report is the culmination of a six-month long collection and analysis of the war reports, issue by SADR and published in SPS, by the WSWA ProjectStatistics team, a CEAUP research team, specially dedicated to the monitoring of the IIª Western Sahara War. It is divided into four different sections: Chapter 1 is dedicated to the explanation of the methodology of work. Chapter 2 is dedicated to an overall statistical analysis of the conflict. While Chapter 3 is the in-depth analysis of the conflict. Finally, in Chapter 4 will be shown the collect data in the form of coloured maps, in order to summarize all the information. 1. Analysis Methodology For this report, the following methodology will be used: 1. It was intended to use data from both sides of the conflict but so far, the Kingdom of Morocco does not recognize that there is such a conflict. Therefore, we do not have data on the Moroccan side; 2. Sahara Press Service is the official news source of the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic 2.1. Henceforth we will use the acronym SADR when referring to The Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic; 2.2. Henceforth we will use the acronym SPS, when referring to Sahara Press Service; 2.3. SPS reports are our information base on the conflict, on the Frente POLISARIO side; 2.4. SPS Communiqués refer to the attacks by the Frente POLISARIO “… intensos bombardeos a […] .” (SPS, 2021). n the absence of a specific number, we count all attacks described as “intense”, as 1 attack. 3. In order to make the statistical data easier to analyze, and after several meetings with official Saharawi entities and the analysis of the War Communiqués, it was possible to divide the territory of Western Sahara into analyzable portions: 3.1. this division consists of two levels: 3.1.1. Military Region - large geographic regions, that is, the macro unit; 3.1.1.1. So far, 3 (three) Military Regions have been counted; 3.1.1.2. The Military Regions to consider are: • Military Region 1-Oued Daraa; • Military Region 2-Saguia El Hamara; • Military Region 3-Rio de Oro. 3.1.1.3. Saguia El Hamara and Rio de Oro are the two former Spanish administrative regions, with Oued Daraa being added; 3.1.1.4. From now on, we will use the term RM, when referring to Military Regions; 3.1.1.5. We will use the acronym RM+Nº as an abbreviation when referring to a particular region, i.e., R1, when referring to Region 1 – Oued Daraa. Therefore, we will designate the Military Regions as follows: • RM 1 • RM 2 • RM 3 3.1.2. Sectorsmaller regions within large regions, that is, the micro unit; 3.1.2.1. Up to the present moment, 13 sectors have been accounted for; 3.1.2.2. The Sectors to consider are: • Sector 1 – Aaga; • sector 2 – Touizgui; • Sector 3 – El Mahabas; • Sector 4 – Farsia; • Sector 5 – Haouza; • Sector 6 – Smara; • Sector 7 – Amgala; • Sector 8 – Guelta Zemmour; • Sector 9 – Oum Dreiga; • Sector 10 – El Bagari; • Sector 11 – Auserd; • Sector 12 – Techla; • Sector 13 – Bir Guendouz; 3.1.3. We will use the acronym S+Nº as an abbreviation when referring to a particular Sector, i.e., S1, when referring to Sector 1-Aaga. Therefore, we will designate the Sectors as follows: • S1; • S2; • S3; • S4; • S5; • S6; • S7; • S8; • S9; • S10; • S11; • S12; • S13; 4. In practice, for this Report, the territorial division is as follows: • RM 1 is comprised by: ▪ S1 ▪ S2 ▪ S3 ▪ S4 • RM 2 is comprised by: ▪ S5 ▪ S6 ▪ S7 ▪ S8 • RM 3 is comprised by: ▪ S9 ▪ S10 ▪ S11 ▪ S12 ▪ S13 5. The statistical Data were obtained from the information in the War Communiqués edited in the SPS, which were compiled in the War Reports of the website: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com/,; 6. We will only use Data relating to the first 6 (six) months of the conflict: 6.1. Although the conflict has only started on November 13th, we consider November as month 1, so: • Month 1 starts on the 13th of November and ends on the 30th of November 2020; • Month 2 starts on the 1st of December and ends on 31th December 2020; • Month 3 starts on the 1st of January and ends on 31st January 2021; • Month 4 starts from the 1st of February to 28th February 2021; • Month 5 starts on the 1st of March and ends on 31st March 2021; • Month 6 starts on the 1st of April and ends on 30th April 2021; 6.2. Therefore, the period of analysis is the timeframe between 11/13/2020 and 04/30/2021; 6.3. We will use the acronym Nº+S as an abbreviation, when referring to the period of analysis. Therefore, we will designate this period as: 1S; 6.4. The values of 1S will be divided into two quarters: 6.4.1. November-December-January 6.4.2. February-March-April 6.4.3. We will use the acronym Q+Nº as an abbreviation when referring to one of the Quarters, i.e., Q1, when referring to the Quarter of NovemberDecember-January. Therefore, we will designate the two Quarters as follows: • Q1 • Q2 7. The statistical data will be systematized into tables, graphs and maps, posted along the report; 7.1. The collected data will be analyzed in the following way: ❖ General View; ▪ Per Region View: • Oued Daraa; • Saguia El Hamara; • Rio de Oro; • Maps: • Month 1; • Month 2; • Month 3; • Month 4; • Month 5; • Month 6; • Table, Graphs and Maps will be coloured; 3. Statistical Analysis of the First Semester - Detail View 3.1. Oued Daraa Having observed and analysed the general context, it is now important to systematize and analyse what happened inside the RM, in order to have a more complete view. With that in mind, we'll start by looking at the events in R1. R1 is divided into four sectors: Sector 1 - Aaga, represented in blue in the tables and in some graphs; Sector 2 - Touizgui, represented by the color orange; Sector 3 - El Mahbas, represented by the gray color; Sector 4 - Farsia, represented by the color yellow. R1 is the only RM that has two Sectors, which are not within the territorial limits, considered as the territory of Western Sahara, we speak of S1 and S2. These territories are to the north of the claimed international border, in other words, S1 and S2 belong to Morocco. Map 2-Oued Daraa Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com Table 3Oued Daraa Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q1 S1 Month 1 0 0 0% Month 2 0 Month 3 0 S2 Month 1 0 3 1% Month 2 0 Month 3 3 S3 Month 1 19 130 59% Month 2 59 Month 3 52 S4 Month 1 25 88 40% Month 2 38 Month 3 25 Total 221 100% Table 4Oued Daraa Region Sectors AnalysisQ2 Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q2 S1 Month 4 0 0 0% Month 5 0 Month 6 0 S2 Month 4 13 27 13% Month 5 10 Month 6 4 S3 Month 4 34 116 54% Month 5 41 Month 6 41 S4 Month 4 19 70 33% Month 5 38 Month 6 13 Total 213 100% Table 5 - Oued Daraa Region 1S Totality of Attacks Analysis (%) The number of attacks that happened during Q1, represented 51% of the total attacks recorded in R1 during 1S. Thus, the first quarter was the most prolific, by a small margin, in terms of total confrontations (Graphic 5 e Graphic 6). Quarter Total of Attacks Percentage Q1 221 51% Q2 213 49% Total 434 100% Graphic 6-1S Region Totality of Attacks (%) By systematizing the information and using the same matrix table used for the analysis of RM, we obtain the following table: Table 6Western Sahara War1st Quarter War Reports AnalysisOued Daraa Region When performing a first analysis we were able to build a Radar Matrix (Graphic 8) and become aware of the following: • S1 never suffered an attack during the fourteen weeks analysed, representing 0% of Total Attacks; • In S2, 30 meetings were recorded, representing 7% of the total attacks in R1; • S3 and S4 are the most attacked sectors. They represent 93% of all R1 attacks, having a combined average of 34 attacks per month, with a Standard Deviation of 13 attacks per month, a Median of 36 and a model of 19 attacks per month; • With the exception of S1, all Sectors were attacked at least once a month, during 1S; • Higher number of attacks recorded in R1 was in Q1, 221; • There were an Average of 72 attacks per month, with a Median of 73 attacks and a Standard Deviation of 18,2 attacks. Month Nº of Attacks per Months Month to Month Differential Month Percentage Average Median Mode Standard Deviation 1 44 +44 10% 72 73 - 18,2 2 97 +53 22% 3 80 -17 18% 4 66 -14 15% 5 89 +23 21% 6 59 +31 13% Total 434 100% Graphic 7Oued Daara Military Encounters EvolutionRegion Graphic 8Region Oued Daraa S1 Total Number of Attacks The month in which there were more attacks was February, with 97 occurrences, 22% of the total of R1 in 1S. The month in which the lowest number of attacks was recorded was November with 44, which represents 10% of the total (Graphic 8). In terms of evolution, after having registered the maximum peak in the number of attacks in the month 2December, the number of attacks shows a downward trend, despite registering a new peak Graphic 9Oued Daara Military Encounters Number of Attacks Comparison Graphic 101S Within Sector Totality of Attacks (%) in the month 5-March, with 89 attacks. And this can be seen in Graphic 9. Translated into percentages, S3 represents 57% of the total, S4 represents 36% and S2 the remaining 7% (Graphic 10). S1 has a value of 0%. Looking carefully at the numbers, we see that in S2 a total of 30 attacks were accounted for, with the following distribution: • November 2020: 0 attacks, 0,0%; • December 2020: 0 attacks, 0,0%; • January 2021: 3 attacks, 0,7%; • February 2021: 13 attacks, 3,0%; • March 2021: 10 attacks, 2,3%; • April 2021: 4 attacks, 0,9% The month in which there were more attacks was February, with 13 occurrences, 3.0% of the total of R1 in 1S he month in which there were fewer occurrences were: November and December with 0 attacks. In S3, for the period considered, 130 attacks were registered, which represents a +216 attack than in S2, distributed as follows: • November 2020: 19 attacks, 4,4%; • December 2020: 59 attacks, 13,6%; • January2021: 52 attacks, 12,0%; • February 2021: 34 attacks, 7,8%; • March 2021: 41 attacks, 9,4%; • April 2021: 41 attacks, 9,4%. The month in which there were more attacks was December, with 59 occurrences, 13.6% of the total of R1 in 1S. The month in which there were fewer occurrences was November with 19 attacks, 4.4% of the total of R1 in 1S. Finally, in S4 there were -88 attacks, in the general compendium when compared to S3, thus registering a total of 158 occurrences, distributed as follows: • November 2020: 25 attacks, 5,8%; • December 2020: 38 attacks, 8,8%; • January 2021: 25 attacks, 5,8%; • February 2021: 19 attacks, 4,4%; • March 2021: 38 attacks, 8,8%; • April 2021: 13 attacks, 3,0% The month in which there were more attacks were two: December, with 38 occurrences, and March, with 38 attacks. Both represent 8.8% of the total R1 in 1S. The month in which there were fewer occurrences was April, with 13 attacks, 3.0% of the total of R1 in 1S. When we graphically represent the evolution of the number of attacks, we obtain Graphic 9 e Graphic 11as a result. As can be seen, the lines, in general, show a stable trend, with a slight downward slope in the General. It shows a slight upward curve between month 4 and 5. It exhibits two peaks, one at S3/December with 59 attacks (the highest) and a second at S2/January with 3 attacks (the lowest). The line representing S1 remains stable, never leaving 0 attacks. Graphic 11Oued Daara 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Month 3.2. Saguia El Hamara R2 is divided into four sectors: Sector 5 - Haouza, represented in blue in the tables and in some graphs; Sector 6 - Smara, represented by the color orange; Sector 7 - Amgala, represented by the gray color; Sector 8 – Guelta Zemmour, represented by the color yellow. Map 3Saguia El Hamara Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com Table 7Saguia El Hamara Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q1 S5 Month 1 27 90 46% Month 2 35 Month 3 28 S6 Month 1 5 57 29% Month 2 32 Month 3 20 S7 Month 1 12 36 18% Month 2 14 Month 3 10 S8 Month 1 0 12 6% Month 2 2 Month 3 10 Total 195 100% Table 8Saguia El Hamara Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q2 S5 Month 4 6 37 49% Month 5 15 Month 6 16 S6 Month 4 2 2 3% Month 5 0 Month 6 0 S7 Month 4 1 1 1% Month 5 0 Month 6 0 S8 Month 4 11 35 47% Month 5 11 Month 6 13 Total 75 100% 3.3. Rio de Oro R3 is divided into five sectors: Sector 9 – Oum Dreiga, represented in blue in the tables and in some graphs; Sector 10 – El Bagari, represented by the colour orange; Sector 11 – Auserd, represented by the grey colour; Sector 12 – Techla, represented by the colour yellow; Sector 13 – Bir Guendouz, represented by the light blue colour. Map 4Rio de Oro Region Map; Source: https://www.westernsahara-wa.com Table 11Rio de Oro Region Sectors AnalysisQ1 Table 12Rio de Oro Region Sectors AnalysisQ2 Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q1 S9 Month 1 9 23 17% Month 2 6 Month 3 8 S10 Month 1 14 48 36% Month 2 15 Month 3 19 S11 Month 1 2 56 37% Month 2 17 Month 3 19 S12 Month 1 2 19 13% Month 2 9 Month 3 8 S13 Month 1 1 5 3% Month 2 0 Month 3 4 Total 133 100% Quarter Sector Month Total of Attacks per Month Total of Attacks Percentage Q2 S9 Month 4 5 15 18% Month 5 5 Month 6 5 S10 Month 4 12 33 39% Month 5 12 Month 6 9 S11 Month 4 9 29 34% Month 5 9 Month 6 11 S12 Month 4 7 8 9% Month 5 1 Month 6 0 S13 Month 4 0 0 0% Month 5 0 Month 6 0 Total 85 100% Table 13Rio de Oro Region 1S Totality of Attacks Analysis (%) The attacks that happened during Q1, represented 64% of the total attacks recorded in R3 during 1S. So, the first quarter was the most prolific in terms of confrontations (Table 13 e Graphic 18). Quarter Total of Attacks Percentage Q1 151 64% Q2 85 39% Total 218 100% By systematizing the information and using the same matrix table used for the analysis of Rm, we obtain the following table: Table 14Western Sahara War1st Semester War Reports AnalysisRio de Oro Region. Month Nº of Attacks per Month Month to Month Differential Month Percentage Average Median Mode Standard Deviation 1 38 +38 16% 39,33 35,5 - 13,96 2 47 +9 20% 3 66 +19 28% 4 33 -33 14% 5 27 -6 11% 6 25 -2 11% Total 236 100% Graphic 181S Region Totality of Attacks (%) When performing a first analysis we were able to build a Radar Matrix (Graphic 18) and notice the following: • S13 was the less attacked sector, with 5 attacks recorded, which represents 2% of total attacks in R3 during 1S; • Within the considered period, all R3 sectors were attacked at least once; • S10 and S11 are the most attacked sectors, with a combined total of 148 attacks. They represent 68% of all r3 attacks, having a combined average of 12,333 attacks per month, with a Standard Deviation of 4.8865 attacks per month, with a Median of 12 and a mode of 9; • It was during Q1 that the highest number of attacks recorded occurred, 133, in R3; • There are on average 39.33 attacks per month, with a Median of 35.5 attacks and a Standard Deviation of 13.96 attacks per month. Graphic 19Within Sector 1S Attacks Sector/Month The month in which the highest number of attacks was recorded was January, with 66 occurrences, 28% of the total of R3 in 1s. The month in which the lowest number of attacks was recorded was April with 25, which represents 11% of the total (Graphic 19). In terms of evolution, after having registered the maximum peak in the number of attacks in the month 3-January, the number of attacks shows a downward trend. And this can be seen in the Graphic 20 and Graphic 22. Graphic 20Rio de Oro Military Encounters Evolution1S Graphic 211S Within Sector Totality of Attacks (%) Translated into percentages, S9 represents 16% of the total, S10 represents 34%, S11 represents 36%, S12 represents 11% finally, S13 has a value of 2% (Graphic 21). Looking carefully at the numbers, we see that, in S9, for the period considered, 38 attacks were recorded, distributed as follows: • November 2020: 9 attacks, 3,8%; • December 2020: 6 attacks, 2,5%; • January 2021: 8 attacks, 3,4%; • February 2021: 5 attacks, 2,1%; • March 2021: 5 attacks, 2,1%; • April 2021: 5 attacks, 2,1%. The month in which there were more attacks was November, with 6 occurrences, 3.8% of the total of R3 in 1H. The month in which the lowest number of attacks occurred were three: February, March and April with 5, which represents 2.1% of the total of R3 in 1S. In S10 there were +43 attacks, in the general compendium when compared to S9, registering a total of 81 occurrences, distributed as follows: Graphic 22Number of Attacks Comparison in Rio de Oro in 1S • November 2020: 14 attacks, 5,9%; • December 2020: 15 attacks, 6,4%; • January 2021: 19 attacks, 8,1%; • February 2021: 12 attacks, 5,1%; • March 2021: 12 attacks, 5,1%; • April 2021: 9 attacks, 3,8% The month in which there were more attacks was January, with 19 occurrences, which represents 8.1% of the total of R3 in 1H. The month in which there were fewer occurrences was April with 9 attacks, 3.8% of the total of R3 in 1S. In S11 there were +4 attacks, in the general compendium when compared to S10. A total of 85 attacks were counted with the following distribution: • November 2020: 12 attacks, 5,1%; • December 2020: 17 attacks, 7,2%; • January 2021: 27 attacks, 11,4%; • February 2021: 9 attacks, 3,8%; • March 2021: 9 attacks, 3,8%; • April 2021: 11 attacks, 4,7% The month in which there were more attacks was January, with 27 occurrences, 11.4% of the total of R3 in1S. The month in which the lowest number of occurrences was recorded were two: February and March with 9 attacks, 3.8% of the total of R3 in1S. In S12 there were -58 attacks, in the general compendium when compared to S11, with a total of 27 attacks with the following distribution: • November 2020: 2 attacks, 0,8%; • December 2020: 9 attacks, 3,8%; • January 2021: 8 attacks, 3,4%; • February 2021: 7 attacks, 3,0%; • March 2021: 1 attack, 0,4%; • April 2021: 0 attacks, 0,0% The month in which there were more attacks was December, with 9 occurrences, 3.8% of the total of R3 in 1S. The month in which the lowest number of occurrences was recorded was April with 0 attacks. Finally, in S13 there were -22 attacks, in the general compendium when compared to S12, a total of 5 were counted, with the following distribution: • November 2020: 1 attack, 0,4%; • December 2020: 0 attacks, 0.0%; • January 2021: 4 attacks, 1,7%; • February 2021: 0 attacks, 0,0%; • March 2021: 0 attacks, 0,0%; • April 2021: 0 attacks, 0,0%. The month in which there were more attacks was January, with 4 occurrences, 1.7% of the total of R3 in 1S. The months in which there were the fewest occurrences were four: December, February, March and April with 0 attacks. When we only graphically represent the evolution of the number of attacks, we obtain Graphic 20 and Graphic 23. as a result. As it is possible to observe the line, in general for the considered period, presents a downward trend, with a slight upward trend between the Graphic 23Rio de Oro 1S Military Encounters EvolutionPer Sector/Month month 2 and 3. Conversely, between month 1 and 2, in S9, we saw a slight drop. From month 4 onwards, there is a general stabilization of the number of attacks in all sectors. We found two peaks, one at S11/January with 27 attacks (the highest) and a second at S12/March with 1 attack (the lowest). We were also able to notice that from month 4 onwards, in S13, there were no more attacks. Being accompanied by S12/April, which also hits 0 attacks. Map 10Statistical Map of April 2021 Attacks