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Why Simply Ramping Up Solar PV Is Insufficient

Schilt, Ueli; Meyer, Manuel; Schneeberger, Sarah; Schuetz, Philipp

Abstract

Poster presentation in the framework of the ISES Solar World Congress (SWC) 2023 in New Delhi, India. Associated publication: https://doi.org/10.18086/swc.2023.08.06 Abstract: The transition from fossil-based to renewable energy systems requires the integration of decentralized energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic (PV). Therefore, it is essential to evaluate multi-energy systems with different spatial and time resolutions. This study presents the first results of a multi-energy system model for the evaluation of district-level energy scenarios in Swiss communities. The model assesses both heat and electricity demand while estimating the potential for integrating decentralized renewables and retrofitting fossil heating systems with low-emission alternatives. Computations are carried out with an hourly resolution and timeframes of one year. The model was applied to a Swiss community, assessing solar PV integration and the effect of replacing fossil heating systems. It was shown that the replacement of fossil-based heating systems poses a significant potential for reducing carbon emissions. The impact of solar PV integration diminishes with increasing share of utilized potential due to a demand-supply mismatch and lack of storage and demand-side flexibility considerations.

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1) Competence Centre for Thermal Energy Storage, School of Engineering and Architecture, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences, Horw (Switzerland) 2) School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne (Switzerland) email: [email protected] Load Grid District Multi -Energy System (DMES) Heat Pump Gas Boiler Wood Boiler Oil Boiler Heat Electricity PV Oil Wood Gas Air Water Ground TES EES Solar EES: Electric Energy Storage TES: Thermal Energy Storage District Heating Hydro Nuclear Thermal WtE Import … El. Heating renewable / non -renewable Collect data Estimate demands Select technologies Parametrize model Estimate potential Create scenario Solve energy balances Visualize results Hourly demand profiles Electricity: based on existing profiles from smart-meter data Heat: based on weather data and building stock information Building stock information Installed energy systems Energy use Figure: Annual heat demand based on building stock information. Generation Conversion Storage 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0% 40% 80% Share renewable [%] Replacement of fossil heaters and realised PV integration 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 500 1000 1500 Day of the year Heat supply [MWh ] 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 −200 0 200 400 600 Day of the year Electricity supply [MWh ] Background Methodology Objectives Results Acknowledgements Heat pump Electric heater Oil boiler Gas boiler Wood boiler District heating Solar thermal TES charging TES discharging Other Figure: Schematic of simplified multi-energy system model for districts and communities. Example: Additional solar PV potential estimation based on suitability of roof space and irradiation data. Using data based on selected community Figure: Daily electricity supply aggregated by source based on hourly data for a scenario with 50% solar PV integration and 50% heating system replacement by heat pump (HP). Increased overall electricity demand due to increased HP activity. Figure: Daily heat supply aggregated by heating system type based on hourly data for scenarios with a 50% heating system retrofit rate. While the total heating demand remains the same, the share of heating demand supplied by heat pumps has increased. Figure: Renewable share of supply for electricity, heat, and total energy. High share of solar PV integration leads to high share of excess PV power due to demand-supply mismatch if storage is not considered. Heating system retrofit: replacing fossil heaters (i.e. oil and gas) with heat pumps increases the share of renewable energy supply. Storage and other demand-side flexibility options need to be considered in order to make use of large shares of decentralized renewables. Electricity Heat Total Energy PV consumption PV export Hydro Nuclear Conventional CHP Renewable CHP Renewable other Cross-border import Why Simply Ramping Up Solar PV Is Insufficient Ueli Schilt , Manuel Meyer , Sarah Schneeberger , and Philipp Schuetz 1,2 1 1 1 www.bfe.admin.ch ...integration of decentralized renewables ...increase in energy efficiency ...retrofit of infrastructure The Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 with net-zero CO2 target requires... Understand multi-sectoral dynamics and the potential of integration of decentralized renewable energy sources. Show pathways for communities to reach net-zero target by simulation and optimization of energy system scenarios. The research presented here is carried out with the support of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE as part of the SWEET EDGE project. https://www.aramis.admin.ch/Texte/?ProjectID=49138 https://map.geo.admin.ch/ Day of the year Day of the year Heat supply [MWh ] Electricity supply [MWh ]