Replication material for paper "McGrath (2015): Estimating Onsets of Binary Events in Panel Data. Political Analysis. DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpv019"

Supplementary Materials Estimating Onsets of Binary Events in Panel Data Liam F. McGrath∗ These supplementary materials include: 1. Analysis of the Monte Carlo experiments for the full set of scenarios which include proportions of y= 1 >0.25. 2. Full results from the sensitivity analysis as well as information on the variables included. 3. The review and coding of published papers discussed in the main text (table 1). Replication code for these results and those in the main text can be found on the Dataverse. ∗Postdoctoral Researcher at Centre for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) and Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH Z¨ urich. Contact e-mail: [email protected] 1 Contents 1 Full Monte Carlo Results 3 2 Sensitivity Analysis based upon Hegre and Sambanis (2006a) 7 3 Results of the Literature Survey 14 2 1 Full Monte Carlo Results 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −40 −20 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Proportion of y = 1 in the Sample Bias (%) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −100 −75 −50 −25 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Proportion of y = 1 in the Sample 95% Confidence Interval Non−Coverage Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Proportion of y = 1 in the Sample Root Mean Squared Error Figure 1: Bias, confidence interval non-coverage and root mean squared error as a function of the proportion of y= 1 in the sample for the full sample of experiments. 4 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −40 −20 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Proportion of Observations Recoded Bias (%) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −100 −75 −50 −25 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Proportion of Observations Recoded 95% Confidence Interval Non−Coverage Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Proportion of Observations Recoded Root Mean Squared Error Figure 2: Bias, confidence interval non-coverage and root mean squared error as a function of the number of observations of yrecoded in the sample as a proportion of the number of observations for the full sample of experiments. 5 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −40 −20 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Proportion of Dependent Variable Recoded Bias (%) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 −100 −75 −50 −25 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Proportion of Dependent Variable Recoded 95% Confidence Interval Non−Coverage Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Proportion of Dependent Variable Recoded Root Mean Squared Error Figure 3: Bias, confidence interval non-coverage and root mean squared error as a function of the number of observations of yrecoded as a proportion of the frequency of yin the sample for the full sample of experiments. 6 2 Sensitivity Analysis based upon Hegre and Sambanis (2006a) 7 Table 1: Concept Categories and Variable Names (Table 1 from Hegre and Sambanis (2006)) Concept Label Concept No. Variable Name Description Source Dependent Variable warstns War onset (ongoing years dropped) Sambanis (2004a) warstnsb War onset (ongoing years set to zero) Sambanis (2004a) atwarns Civil war incidence Sambanis (2004a) Core Variables ln popns Population, log-transformed Fearon and Laitin (2003) ln gdpen GDP per capita, log-transformed Fearon and Laitin (2003) t, t2, t3 Cubic polynomial of time since last civil war Authors’ coding, based on Sambanis (2004a) Ethnic fragmentation 1 dlang Linguistic component of ehet Vanhanen (1999) 1 drace Racial component of ehet Vanhanen (1999) 1 drel Religious component of ehet Vanhanen (1999) 1 ef Ethnic fractionalization index Fearon and Laitin (2003) 1 ef2 Ef squared Fearon and Laitin (2003) 1 ehet Ethnic heterogeneity index Vanhanen (1999) 1 elfo Ethnolinguistic diversity Collier and Hoeffler (2004) 1 elfo2 Ethnolinguistic diversity squared Collier and Hoeffler (2004) 1 numlang Number of languages in Ethnologue Fearon and Laitin (2003) 1 plural Share of largest ethnic group Fearon and Laitin (2003) 1 plurrel Size of largest confession Fearon and Laitin (2003) 1 relfrac Religious fractionalization Fearon and Laitin (2003) Ethnic dominance/polarization 2 etdo4590 Ethnic dominance measure Collier and Hoeffler (2004) 2 second Percent population in second largest group Fearon and Laitin (2003) Level of democracy 3 auto4 Autocracy index from Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 dem Dummy: 1 for democracies and 0 for autocracies Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 dem4 Democracy index from Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 exrec Executive recruitment concept variable Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 mirps2 Consistent autocracy Gates et al. (2006) 3 mirps3 Consistent democracy Gates et al. (2006) 3 parcomp Competitiveness of participation nonelites (Polity IV) Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 parreg Regulation of participation (Polity IV) Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 part ln(share of population voting oppositions share of votes cast) Vanhanen (2000) 3 pol4 Polity index; Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 pol4m Polity Index; Polity IV; 77 and 88 coded = 0 Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 polcomp Political competition: concept variable (Polity IV) Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 3 reg Dummy: 1 for dictatorships and 0 for democracies (ACLP) Przeworski et al. (2000) 3 sip2 Continuous measure of democracy Gates et al. (2006) 3 xconst Executive constraintsoperational independence of CE Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) Inconsistency of political institutions 4 anoc Dummy: anocracy = 1 Fearon and Laitin (2003) 8 4 mirps0 Inconsistent polity (semi-democracy) Gates et al. (2006) 4 mirps1 Caesaristic polity Gates et al. (2006) 4 partfree Partially free polity Freedom House (2002) 4 pol4sq Pol4 squared Marshall and Jaggers (2000) Political instability 5 ager Age in years of the current regime as classified by REG (ACLP) Przeworski et al. (2000) 5 autch98 Autocracy annual change; Polity 98 Gurr and Jaggers (2000) 5 demch98 Democracy annual change; Polity 98 Gurr and Jaggers (2000) 5 durable Years since last regime transition/since 1949 (Polity IV) Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 5 Inst3 Political instability; whether there was a change in Polity score in the past three years Fearon and Laitin (2003) 5 nwstate New state Fearon and Laitin (2003) 5 p4mchg Annual change in modified polity; Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 5 polch98 Polity annual change; Polity 98 Gurr and Jaggers (2000) 5 proxregc 2(−durable/0.5) Gurr and Jaggers (2000) Political system 6 incumb Consolidation of incumbent advantage; ACLP Przeworski et al. (2000) 6 inst 0-dict; 1-parliam; 2-mixed dem; 3-pres dem; ACLP Przeworski et al. (2000) 6 major Majoritarian system Przeworski et al. (2000) 6 presi Presidential system Przeworski et al. (2000) Centralization 7 autonomy Country has de facto autonomous regions Sambanis (2004a) 7 centpol3 Centralized state? (Polity III data plus updates for post-1994) Sambanis (2004a) 7 fedpol3 Federal state? (Polity III data plus updates for post-1994) Sambanis (2004a) 7 semipol3 Semi-federal state? (Polity III data plus updates for post-1994) Sambanis (2004a) Neighborhood political economy 8 avgnabo Average SIP score of neighbors Gates et al. (2006) 8 nmdgdp Neighbors average ln(GDP per capita) Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Sambanis (2001) 8 nmdp4 alt Neighbors median polity (both land and water contiguity using polity2) Marshall and Jaggers (2000) 8 regd4 alt Median regional polity (using polity2) Sambanis (2002) Region 9 geo1 Region: Western Europe and the United States Hegre and Sambanis (2006) 9 geo2 Region: Eastern Europe and Central Asia Hegre and Sambanis (2006) 9 geo34 Region: Middle East and North Africa Hegre and Sambanis (2006) 9 geo57 Region: South and East Asia and Oceania Hegre and Sambanis (2006) 9 geo69 Region: Latin America Hegre and Sambanis (2006) 9 geo8 Region: Sub-Saharan Africa Hegre and Sambanis (2006) Neighborhood war 10 nat war Whether a neighbor is at war in a given year Sambanis (2004a) 10 tnatwar Total number of neighbors at war in a given year Sambanis (2004a) Growth 11 gdpgrowth Annual change in GDP (%) Computed from Fearon and Laitin (2003) GDP series Economic policy 12 expgdp Exports of goods and services as percent GDP WDI data World Bank (2000) 12 trade Trade as percept of GDP in 1995 constant dollars World Bank (2000) Social welfare 13 illiteracy Percent adult population illiterate WDI World Bank (2000) 13 infant Infant mortality WDI World Bank (2000) 13 life Life Expectancy at birth WDI World Bank (2000) 13 pri School enrollment primary percent gross WDI World Bank (2000) 9 References Barbieri, K, and R Reuveny. 2005. “Economic globalization and civil war.” JOURNAL OF POLITICS 67(NOV): 1228–1247. 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