FutuResilience Toolbox for Policy Testing

FutuResilience Toolbox Dr. Philine Warnke, Charlotte Freudenberg, Dr. Matias Barberis, Benjamin Lehn Contributors: Stina Andreassen, Asimina Christoforou, Kerstin Cuhls, Tea Danilov, Fernando García Martin, Elina Griniece, Miguel Hurtado Hernandez, Martin Kruse, Maja Joner Ognedal, Vasiliki Oikonomopoulou, Fabiola Onofrio, Jörgen Sparf, Uku Varblane, Vassilis Xiros This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe under grant agreement No 101094455. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency (REA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Dr. Philine Warnke, Charlotte Freudenberg, Dr. Matias Barberis, Benjamin Lehn Contributors: Stina Andreassen, Asimina Christoforou, Kerstin Cuhls, Tea Danilov, Fernando García Martin, Elina Griniece, Miguel Hurtado Hernandez, Martin Kruse, Maja Joner Ognedal, Vasiliki Oikonomopoulou, Fabiola Onofrio, Jörgen Sparf, Uku Varblane, Vassilis Xiros FutuResilience Toolbox 4 5 FutuResilience About the Toolbox and the Project FutuResilience Content The FutuResilience Toolbox brings together tried-and-tested methods, tools and guidelines, serving as a practical resource for living labs and organisations wishing to identify, assess, and implement research-based interventions for resilience-building processes. The foundation of the toolbox lies in field experiments and learning workshops carried out in the framework of the FutuResilience project across different European regions and at various levels of government. This ensures that the methods are not only theoretically grounded but also practically tested and transferable. The contents cover key approaches such as scenario planning, participatory policy design, and evaluation, supporting the structured and effective development of policy strategies to enhance preparedness facing diverse type of challenges and crises. The core content of the FutuResilience Toolbox is the explanation of the foresight process. At the beginning, a flow chart illustrates the overall process, while beneath it nine separate panels provide explanations and templates for the respective process steps. The toolbox also includes additional sections referring to further foresight and co-creation tools, policy tools accompanying the design of policy strategies as well as thematic tools supporting sectoral analysis on diverse type of challenges ranging from migration, urban planning, disasters to education, healthcare or good governance. The FutuResilience project aims to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to quickly respond to future crises. At the core of this approach, the project funded ten FutuResilience Labs, aligning local, regional, or national needs with available policy-relevant research and innovation (R&I) results. By putting emphasis on knowledge valorisation for policy uptake, the labs operated as co-creation experimentation spaces for policy testing, using a variety range of approaches and tools with focus on future-thinking. As result, the FutuResilience labs ecosystem developed policy-relevant outcomes that increased the confidence of decision-makers and citizens in their capacity to respond to emerging challenges. Foresight and Co-Creation Tools yProblem Framing yStakeholder Analysis yWildcards yFactor Projections – Tetralemma Exercise yScenario Refinement and Strategic Conversation yKey Factor Selection yWeak Signals yScenario Cores – Influence Matrix Analysis and Morphological Table yWind Tunnelling About the Toolbox and the Project Page 5 The Foresight Process: Step by Step Page 6 Publishing Notes Page 39 References and Further Reading Page 36 More Foresight, Co-Creation, Policy and Thematic Tools Page 26 Page 8 6 7 Problem Definition System Analysis Groundwork Scenarios Policy Testing Learning/ Implementation Stakeholder Analysis ~20 stakeholders selected for workshops Factor Projections Tetralemma 2-4 Projections per factor Scenario Cores Wind Tunnelling Assessment of policies Process Reflection Concise/ Refined Problem Statement Factor Analysis Max. 10 key factors Robust strategy elements Policy Identification 3-4 Policy options to be tested Scenario Elaboration Detailed scenarios Scenario Context Weak Signals ~10 weak signals selected Learnings/ Alternatives Agent-Based Modelling Insights based on modelling Scenario Refinement Insights based on scenarios System Overview Wildcards ~10 wildcards selected Indicators to observe Start Direct link to the template yUse the links to get to the guidelines and respective templates for each step. yThis is an iterative process, meaning you can and should jump back and forth to continuously improve as you learn more. yA proper, workable problem definition is paramount to an effective process (especially with scenarios). Start there and come back to it for revisions as you progress! yThe problem framing and system analysis should continuously be updated according to new insights. At the same time, each exercise may provide inspiration or context for another one – do not be afraid to keep refining your outcomes! yInspiration for policy options can be derived from all steps of the process – e.g., through working with wildcards or by analysing certain scenarios! Notes on Process FutuResilience The Foresight Process: Step by Step Potentially repeat and revise with selected stakeholders Use Thematic Tools to inspire problem framing Use Policy Tools to inspire solution phase Knowledge Base 8 9 ÂStep 1: Self-Definition |Who are you as a team? The same problem will be perceived differently depending on who is looking at it. ÂStep 2: Problem Statement |Try to describe in one short sentence or paragraph; Be concise and leave specifics for later fields. ÂStep 3: Environmental/Climate Challenges |How does the problem interact with challenges related to the environment, general ecology, or climate crisis? ÂStep 4: Technical Challenges |What are the technical challenges you are engaging with; Where are technological bottlenecks (including processes) to be overcome? ÂStep 5: Social Challenges |How does society and its behaviour impact the problem? Can or should certain groups play a specific role? ÂStep 6: The Gaps |Identify the areas where your issue is lacking resources the most. Where are gaps in the current approach? ÂStep 7: Debrief and Indicators |Go back to the initial problem statement and consider how the various angles have changed your understanding of it. Does the description contain more than necessary, might it have to include more information? What role to the different facets play? Then, if feasible for your context, come up with ~5 Key Indicators to grasp the issue in numbers and have a measurable reference. Try to come up with a consensus for a new definition! If possible, repeat the process with a few diverse stakeholders and on the basis of outcomes, revise the problem formulation. 1 Guideline for Template Problem Framing Tool Template Problem Framing 26 Problem Statement Resource Gaps Who are you? Technical Challenges Social Challenges Environmental/ Climate Challenges Adapted from Climate-KIC Toolkit (Matti et al. 2020) 5 3 4 1 10 11 Who do we mean by stakeholders? Stakeholders are individuals or groups with a stake in the problem, meaning they are in some way affected by or have an influence on the way it evolves. Often stakeholders will be both influencing and affected by the problem. Why work with stakeholders? |The better stakeholders know each other and their perspectives, the better they are able to deal with a crisis effectively. |With access to competencies and resources distributed better, the system can become more resilient as a whole. |Enriching the knowledge and perspectives around the table increases chances of high quality outcomes and a successful process. |Reduce the number and the severity of conflicts between different involved or affected parts. |Diminish the chances for absent stakeholders to spoil the process. |Build a sense of ownership and belonging to the process, to the objectives, as well as the solutions proposed. |Outcomes are more accepted and tend to be more sustainable. |Due to the “multiplier” effect of the network, outcomes can more easily trigger system changes. How to work with stakeholders? ÂStep 1: Stakeholder Identification Brainstorm around the two key questions: |Who can influence our problem and its solution? |Who is affected if our problem is (not) resolved? To enrich your collection, it is useful to conduct additional analysis such as screening media, consultations for groups who raise their voice, screening scientific publications and to extract the groups mentioned. ÂStep 2: Stakeholder Categorisation |List the stakeholders and note down what type they are and which aspect they relate to. |In case there is a type that is not represented by the stakeholders identified by you, double check whether there may be stakeholders in this category (e.g. NGO). |Locate the stakeholders in the Venn Diagram. |If possible: Get in touch with representatives of stakeholder groups from the inner circle, ask them whom they perceive as stakeholders and revise the Venn diagram, taking their feedback into account. ÂStep 3: Stakeholder Management |Generate a stakeholder database for the groups located in the inner circle of the Venn diagram. |Identify concrete persons who could represent these groups and list them in your database (Make sure to respect the data protection regulation (GDPR). yCollect several persons and keep an eye on diversity regarding age, gender, discipline and other criteria relevant for your case (e.g. regional location, cultural background) this will help you later to compile a group of participants that brings the diversity of perspectives required to the table. |For the context setters with high influence but currently not much affected you may want to establish some sort of observation as they may see themselves as affected at some point and change the whole landscape with their powerful intervention. Guideline for Template Stakeholder Analysis Tool Template Stakeholder Analysis 2 Stakeholder Identification Stakeholder Management Stakeholder Categorisation Moderate Least Most Stakeholder Group Type P – Policy S – Civil/Society R – Research I – Industry O – Other/Mixed/More than Human Aspect of the system the stakeholder group has a "stake" in 1 3 2 I n fl u e n c e I n fl u e n c e a n d a f f e c t e d A f f e c t e d Context Setters (Dormant) Key players, dominant Vulnerable, subjects Crowd 1 2a 2b 2c 12 13 What are wildcards? |Wildcards are sudden future developments or events that seem relatively unlikely to happen, but have a drastic impact when they do happen (see BIPE et al. 1992, p. v). Think of September 11 or Chernobyl as examples that were surprising yet hugely disruptive. |Wildcards materialise so quickly that the underlying social systems cannot respond quickly enough– therefore being surprising and presenting a complete break in how people think and plan (see Hiltunen, 2006). |Because wildcards do not fit into our usual frame of reference, they challenge our mental map of the world (Steinmüller, 2003). This forces us to question the way we are doing things from different perspectives – which in turn can help to become more resilient towards unexpected changes. How are wildcards identified and selected? Ways to search for wildcards: |Previous exercises, such as the STEEP Analysis or weak signal scanning can serve as a baseline from which wildcards can be created (see template). |Tetralemma: Start with a certain development that positively impacts the topic under question. What would the opposite to this development look like? Then, think about an event that would affect it both positively as well as negatively. In the final step, an event is searched for that does not fit into either category – one that makes the question obsolete or changes it completely – resulting in a wildcard. |Good wildcards are: Appropriate to the problem (Not stem from topical area, but associated with it) |Original (not considered in other forms), consequences not immediately apparent |At the far edge of what is possible Guideline for Template Wildcards Tool Template Wildcards 3 30 minutes each to draft wildcards 15 minutes warm up Historical Analysis yWhich events or developments acted as wild cards in comparable situations? Outside of frame of references yTake a look at your STEEP analysis. yReview the megatrends and factors you have discarded. yWhat lies completely outside of that frame of reference? Weak signal/Trend as precursor yTake an identified weak signal/(mega) trend to the extreme – could this result in a sudden wild card or “creeping catastrophe”? yWhat would it take for this signal/trend to become highly impactful/cause major disruption? Tetralemma yThe Tetralemma exercise can be a great source for wild cards. ySee the template for instructions on how to conduct it and use [E: Shifted Paradigm] as a source for wild cards. D ACB E 14 15 Guideline for Template Factor Projections – Tetralemma Exercise What is the Tetralemma Exercise? |The approach stems from professional coaching, in the context of scenario development it is used to help groups think through different possibilities for the evolution of highly uncertain factors in their system. |The groups fill in one Tetralemma Template per factor during a joint brainstorm session. It is important to remember that there are no wrong assumptions here. Participants are free to develop as many options as they want under C. |Most groups tend to converge at a maximum of five alternatives. How to fill in the Template: Outline possible alternative developments for the selected factors. ÂA What is the current Projected/Expected Future for this Factor? ÂB What is a Distinct Divergent development possibility? ÂC What are some Hybrid Possibilities if we both elements of A and elements of B are present? ÂD What are possible disruptive developments? ÂE What can we think of that radically shifts our thinking about this factor? Tool Template Factor Projections – Tetralemma Exercise 4 Projected/Expected Alternative Distinctive Divergence Disruptive Development Hybrid Possibilities Factor Alternative Alternative Alternative Alternative Shifted Paradigm Metaphor/Symbol Find a metaphor or symbol for your scenario, something that immediately transmits the spirit of the scenario. A day in the life Imagine a day in your organisation/company/ research group/policy unit what would be different from today? Headline from the future Sketch a news item of the future containing e.g. 1 graph, 1 headline, 1 tweet, 1 image Persona Method (Advanced) Imagine a person from our key stakeholder groups in each of the scenarios (e.g. farmer, refugee, entrepreneur, mayor, child, elderly person, ...). Describe the situation of this person in the scenario. What is their life like, what are their concerns and fears, hopes and dreams? What is a typical ...? artefact, communication device, artwork, toy, tool, shelter, food, etc. in each scenario? What are threats and opportunities? (separate these two perspectives) yIn general yFor our key actor groups Who are winners and who are losers in this scenario? Niche What is the most successful approach that your organisation can focus on in this scenario? Backcasting/Roadmapping (Advanced) How could you achieve your goals in this scenario starting from now? Signposts What are indicators that would imply that this scenario is becoming reality? 6 1 2 3 4 5 16 17 Guideline for Template Scenario Refinement and Strategic Conversation Tool Template Scenario Refinement and Strategic Conversation Why refine the scenarios? |The refinement phase helps participants to make sense of the worlds they have created, fill in missing links and detect and amend inconsistencies. |Moreover, scenarios should provide images of the future that inspire forward looking conversations, which help people to challenge their mental models and enrich their capacity to imagine change. |It is, therefore, important that they are more than just bundles of factors but provide interesting, thought provoking and inspiring glimpses into future worlds. How to refine the scenarios? |There are many ways to refine scenarios – find the ones that best serve your purpose and the needs of your target audiences. |You can use the full range of communication formats words, images, graphs, movies etc. |A lot can be done in post-processing, e.g., with the help of communication professionals. It is important, however, to generate the initial material together with the participants who have developed the scenario cores. |The template provides a few inspirations to get started. Tips and Tricks: yDepending on the group size, a rotating seat setup may give you a great opportunity to cover each scenario with different perspectives. yFor example, you can have one group per scenario to be refined, or have each group work on each scenario for a little bit. The resulting group discussions, again, are an important part of the value that you get out of the exercise. What are Strategic Conversations? |In strategic conversations we use the scenarios to enhance our capacity to deal with uncertainty and change, thereby ultimately increasing our resilience. |Of course these discussions also serve to further refine the scenarios. |In strategic conversations we think through together what the scenarios would imply for certain actors, problems and questions that we are facing today. |There are many ways to make the most of the scenarios for your group and topic – the template provides a few inspirations to get started. |Working through and with the scenarios may prove an inspiring source for new policy options– keep in mind that both exercises can be beneficial for each other! 5 2Strategic Conversation 1Scenario Refinement Scenarios 30 31 FutuResilience Thematic Tools FutuResilience Thematic Tools ▶LINKS Community Center - Strengthening links between technologies and society for European disaster resilience ▶Next-generation equipment tools and mission-critical strategies for First Responders ▶Quick Risk Estimation Tool ▶RECEIPT Climate Disaster Storyline Quiz ▶Resccue Toolkit for City Resilience ▶Think Hazard Education, Health and Wellbeing ▶A knowledge portal on the politics of Covid-19 ▶SMOOTH Case studies and pedagogical training manual for educational commons ▶Communication guidelines to pandemic managers, public health officials and government officials ▶DIGITAL TECHNOPOLE FOR RAPID MANUFACTURING RESPONSE - Medical supplies ▶Enhancing Global Pandemic Preparedness - Diagnostic Kits ▶Enhancing Global Pandemic Preparedness - Tools and Training ▶EuroMix toolbox - new strategy for tiered testing and assessment of risk from combined exposure to multiple chemicals ▶Guidance for climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities ▶Guidelines on risk communication principles for pandemics ▶Health systems resilience toolkit ▶Heir Marketplace - Tools ▶Measuring the climate resilience of health systems ▶Population Health Index - evaluates EU population health ▶PVITA APP - support of the exploration of gamification as a motivational mechanism for efficient knowledge circulation ▶Resilience in Education Systems: Rapid Assessment Manual Energy and Materials ▶A POsitive Energy CITY Transformation Framework - Solutions ▶City Energy Resilience Framework ▶Community Energy Academy - Empowering energy citizens ▶Smart Island Energy Systems: Demonstration of innovative solutions ▶Socialwatt - Analyser, Plan and Check tools for innovative energy poverty schemes ▶The Behavioral change in ENergy Consumption of Households (BENCH) agent based model ▶THE TRIPLE-A TOOLS AND DATABASE of high-quality sustainable growth investments Environment and Biodiversity ▶AQUACROSS EBM Cookbook for aquatic ecosystem management ▶Arctic Hubs - Global drivers, local consequences: Tools for global change adaptation and sustainable development of industrial and cultural Arctic "hubs" ▶Climate Europe - Products of Climate Services ▶Climate Transition Map ▶DRYRivERS strategies and tools for cost-effective adaptive management of Drying River Networks ▶ENGAGE tools for assessing feasibility of climate pathways ▶IMPREX - Risk Assessment Tools ▶Knowledge base - Learning Municipality Networks in pursuit of carbon neutrality and climate protection 32 33 FutuResilience Thematic Tools FutuResilience Thematic Tools ▶Ponderful - Data portal for Nature-based solutions using aquatic ecosystems ▶SQAPP Interactive Soil Quality Assessment App ▶CLIMATE ANALYTICS Tools for policymakers and researchers working on climate impacts and action Food and Agriculture ▶Advanced Tools and Research Strategies for Parasite Control in European farmed fish ▶Booklets and reports in support of food diversity in food supply chains ▶Climate resilience and disaster risk analysis for gender sensitive value chains ▶New Technologies, Tools and Strategies for a Sustainable, Resilient and Innovative European Aquaculture ▶Self-evaluation and holistic assessment of climate resilience of farmers and pastoralists ▶Sim4Nexus - A Serious Game for sustainable and integrated management of resources (water, land, energy and food) ▶Strategic framework for guiding decision-makers in the choice of appropriate support instruments for small farms ▶The resilience design and monitoring tool ▶Toolkit for value chain analysis and market development integrating climate resilience and gender responsiveness ▶Towards climate-smart sustainable management of agricultural soils - Knowledge Sharing Platform Good Governance ▶A toolkit for fostering co-creation and participative community engagement with vulnerable communities at risk ▶Arts-Based Methods for Transformative Engagement. A Toolkit ▶Creative Practices for Transformational Futures ▶Deliberative Spaces for Democracy - Tools ▶Framework for building a self-sustaining R&I ecosystem that is open, transparent, and responsive ▶Human centeredness and safety culture measurement toolkit ▶Manual for Cross Talk: Framework for public events which facilitate cross-cultural encounters ▶Open Data for Resilience Initiative: Field Guide ▶Perceive Simulation Lab - simulate the implementation of the European Cohesian Policy ▶Recoms - Creative methods in Research and Community Engagement ▶Sea Innovative Hub - Connecting Public & Private Stakeholders ▶Tools for citizen inclusion in policy processes: mapping and analysis ▶Tools to promote and facilitate citizens' participation and the creation of a community Industries, Local Business, Finances ▶Deck of Cards of emerging innovations and Manual for using them in strategic conversations ▶Feasibility Framework Tool for Social Investment ▶Financial system resilience index 34 35 FutuResilience Thematic Tools FutuResilience Thematic Tools ▶LINKS Community Center ▶PROTAX - A toolkit for LEAs and tax authorities ▶Resilience Financing Landscape Toolkit ▶Supply Chain Explorer - Just2ce ▶The Climate Innovation Window Migration ▶BRaVE toolkit on social polarisation ▶Database of exemplary practices in integration of newly arrived migrants ▶Digital Tools for Migration ▶Disaster displacement: How to reduce risk, address impacts and strengthen resilience ▶Preventing violent extremism through community resilience - Policy & Practice Outputs Transport and Mobility ▶CIVITAS Urban Mobility Tool Inventory ▶FARO - Safety and Resilience Guidelines ▶Foresee - Learning Hub ▶RECIPROCITY - Training materials and webinars ▶Resources for sustainable and smart mobility for all ▶TRIPS Co-design For All Toolkit Urban Planning ▶ArchHub - Tools to build resilience in historic areas ▶Circular Families Game ▶Cities2023 - Digital Tools ▶City Resilience Dynamics tool ▶Edible Cities Network Tools ▶Enhancing Urban Resilience through CURE Cross-Cutting Applications ▶Houseful - Circular economy for public sector ▶Open-air laboratories for Nature Based Solutions to manage hydro-meteorological risks ▶Reconnect Nature Based Solutions Tools and Models ▶Resilience Recovery Toolkit ▶Resources - Sharing Cities Replication Playbooks and Toolkits ▶The city resilience index ▶Triple-A Toolkit - developing effective adaption strategies for cities ▶URBiNAT Nature Based Solutions Catalogue and Selection Tool 36 37 FutuResilience References and Further Reading FutuResilience References and Further Reading Stakeholder Analysis |Achterkamp, M. C., & Vos, J. F. J. (2007). Critically identifying stakeholders. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 24(1), 3–14. ▶https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.760 |Clausen, L. P. W., Hansen, O. F. H., Oturai, N. B., Syberg, K., & Hansen, S. F. (2020). Stakeholder analysis with regard to a recent European restriction proposal on microplastics. PloS One, 15(6), e0235062. ▶https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235062 |Goodman, J., Korsunova, A., & Halme, M. (2017). Our Collaborative Future: Activities and Roles of Stakeholders in Sustainability-Oriented Innovation. Business Strategy and the Environment, 26(6), 731–753. ▶https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.1941 |Lyon, C., Cordell, D., Jacobs, B., Martin-Ortega, J., Marshall, R., Camargo-Valero, M. A., & Sherry, E. (2020). Five pillars for stakeholder analyses in sustainability transformations: The global case of phosphorus. Environmental Science & Policy, 107, 80–89. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.02.019 |Matti, C., Martín Corvillo, J. M., Vivas Lalinde, I., Juan Agulló, B., Stamate, E., Avella, G., & Bauer, A. (2020). Challenge-led system mapping. A knowledge management approach. Transitions Hub series. EIT Climate-KIC. Brussels. ▶https://transitionshub.climate-kic.org/publications/ challenge-led-system-mapping-a-knowledgemanagement-approach/ |Mitchell, R. K., Agle, B. R., & Wood, D. J. (1997). Toward a Theory of Stakeholder Identification and Salience: Defining the Principle of Who and What Really Counts. The Academy of Management Review, 22(4), 853. ▶https://doi.org/10.2307/259247 |Reed, M. S., Graves, A., Dandy, N., Posthumus, H., Hubacek, K., Morris, J., Prell, C., Quinn, C. H., & Stringer, L. C. (2009). Who's in and why? A typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(5), 1933–1949. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.01.001 |Schmidt, L., Falk, T., Siegmund-Schultze, M., & Spangenberg, J. H. (2020). The Objectives of Stakeholder Involvement in Transdisciplinary Research. A Conceptual Framework for a Reflective and Reflexive Practise. Ecological Economics, 176, 106751. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106751 |Vincente Lopez, J. de, & Matti, C. (2016). A visual toolbox for system innovation: A resource book for practitioners to map, analyse and facilitate sustainability transitions (Transitions Hub Series ISBN: 978-2-9601874-1-0). Climate-KIC. Chapter 1: Stakeholder Management ▶https://transitionshub.climate-kic.org/publications/ visual-toolbox-for-system-innovation/ Wildcards |Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a Future Near You. Journal of Futures Studies, Vol 11, No 1, p. 75–94. ▶https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/ uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf |BIPE Conseil (1992). CIFS/Inst. for the Future: Wild Cards: A Multinational Perspective. Institute for the Future. |Hiltunen, E. (2006). Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change? Journal of Futures Studies, 11(2). ▶https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2006-2/ vol-11-no-2-november/articles/was-it-a-wild-cardor-just-our-blindness-to-gradual-change/ |Steinmüller, K. (2003). The future as Wild Card. A Short Introduction to a New Concept. Z_punkt GmbH, Büro für Zukunftsgestaltung Essen and Berlin, Berlin. Weak Signals/Biases |Amanatidou, E., Butter, M., Carabias, V., Konnola, T., Leis, M., Saritas, O., Schaper-Rinkel, P., & van Rij, V. (2012). On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 208–221. ▶https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs017 |Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. (2004). Peripheral Vision: Sensing and Acting on Weak Signals. Long Range Planning, 37(2), 117–121. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2004.01.003 |Ilmola, L., & Kuusi, O. (2006). Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making. Futures, 38(8), 908–924. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.019 |Hiltunen, E. (2008). The future sign and its three dimensions. Futures, 40(3), 247–260. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.021 |Kahneman, D. (2012). Thinking, fast and slow. Penguin psychology. Penguin Books. |Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103(3), 582-91; discussion 592-6. ▶https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.103.3.582 |Policy Horizon Canada Foresight Training Manual Module 3: Scanning ▶https://horizons.gc.ca/en/our-work/learning-materials/foresight-training-manual-module-3-scanning/ (last retrieved 03.09.2025) |Quoidbach, J., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2013). The end of history illusion. Science (New York, N.Y.), 339(6115), 96–98. ▶https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229294 |Rossel, P. (2012). Early detection, warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies. Futures, 44(3), 229–239. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.005 38 39 FutuResilience References and Further Reading |Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 2(2), 13. ▶https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31 |Warnke, P., & Schirrmeister, E. (2016). Small seeds for grand challenges—Exploring disregarded seeds of change in a foresight process for RTI policy. Futures, 77, 1–10. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.12.001 Scenario Method Disclaimer: Literature on scenario building is vast and approaches vary widely, we thus offer a small selection of overviews and classical scenario literature in this section. |Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. Futures, 38(7), 723–739. ▶https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002 |Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Scenario Thinking (2nd ed.). Palgrave Macmillan. |van der Heijden, K. (1997). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. John Wiley. |Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. John Wiley. FutuResilience Publishing Notes Contact Dr. Philine Warnke Phone +49 721 6809-326 [email protected] Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Breslauer Strasse 48 | 76139 Karlsruhe Germany www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en Authors Dr. Philine Warnke, Charlotte Freudenberg, Dr. Matias Barberis, Benjamin Lehn Graphic Design Alice-Sophie Rensland, Jeanette Braun Credits freepik.com |Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. |Spaniol, M. J., & Rowland, N. J. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(1), e3. ▶https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3 FutuResilience project https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/ 101094455 Citation Warnke, Philine; Barberis, Matias; Freudenberg, Charlotte; Lehn, Benjamin (2025): FutuResilience Toolbox. With assistance of Stina Andreassen, Asimina Christoforou, Kerstin Cuhls, Tea Danilov, Fernando García Martin, Elina Griniece et al. Available online at https://cordis.europa.eu/project/ id/101094455/results