Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality

Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality Jani Erola University of Turku December 2025 Mapineq deliverable D7.3 Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 2 Mapineq – Mapping inequalities through the life course– is a three-year project (20222025) that studies the trends and drivers of intergenerational, educational, labour market, and health inequalities over the life course during the last decades. The research is run by a consortium of eight partners: University of Turku, University of Groningen, National Distance Education University, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Stockholm University, Tallinn University, Max Planck Gesellschaft (Population Europe), and University of Oxford Website: www.mapineq.eu The Mapineq project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the grant agreement No. 101061645. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, the European Research Executive Agency, or their affiliated institutions. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Acknowledgement: This document was reviewed as part of Mapineq quality assurance procedures. The content of the document, including opinions expressed and any remaining errors, is the responsibility of the authors. Publication information: This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) license. You are free to share and adapt the material if you include proper attribution (see suggested citation), indicate if changes were made, and do not use or adapt the material in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. Summary history Version Date Comments 1.0 15.12.2025 Manuscript for review 1.1. 22.12.2025 Manuscript reviewed for submission Suggested citation: Jani Erola. (2025). Report: Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality. Mapineq deliverables. Turku: INVEST Research Flagship Centre / University of Turku. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18014104 Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 3 Executive summary This report summarises the main findings of the Horizon Europe project Mapping Inequalities through the Life Course (MapIneq), which examined how social inequalities emerge, persist, and transform across different stages of life in Europe. Drawing on comparative survey data, administrative registers, regional indicators, and genetically informed designs, the project analysed inequalities in education, labour markets, health, family life, and later-life outcomes across countries, regions, and cohorts. A central conclusion is that inequalities are cumulative and multi-domain. Disadvantages arising early in life—particularly those linked to parental education, childhood economic resources, and health—tend to persist and spill over into other domains, shaping educational attainment, labour-market integration, family trajectories, and later-career outcomes. Education plays a pivotal role in these processes, functioning simultaneously as a cause, mediator, and moderator of inequality, but it cannot offset early disadvantages on its own, even in highly egalitarian welfare states. Local and regional opportunity structures matter greatly, often accounting for a substantial share of inequality that has previously been attributed to national differences. Reductions in within-country regional inequalities—especially in access to higher education—have been a key driver of declining intergenerational educational inequality in Europe. Opportunity barriers linked to place, such as labour-market conditions, environmental exposure, or access to institutions, can reinforce disadvantage. These inequalities can be combated with policies that bring opportunities closer to people. MapIneq also demonstrates that inequality mechanisms are dynamic across the life course. Poor labour-market conditions at entry have long-term “scarring” effects, particularly for lower-educated individuals, while mid-career mobility and late-career outcomes remain strongly stratified by education, health, gender, and institutional context. Health emerges as a persistent driver of inequality not only in later life, but already in youth and mid-career, increasing risks of non-employment and precarious work. Genetic differences contribute to educational and occupational outcomes, but their effects are socially mediated and context-dependent. Family resources and institutional arrangements shape how genetic propensities are realised, underscoring that biological inheritance does not undermine the central role of social policy in reducing inequality. Finally, the project highlights a growing tension between inequality structures and their normative legitimacy. Europeans broadly accept differentiated outcomes, but only within perceived bounds of fairness. As opportunity structures diverge from meritocratic ideals and inequalities become more fragmented across regions and life stages, maintaining the legitimacy of social and economic institutions becomes an increasingly important policy challenge. Overall, MapIneq shows that reducing inequality requires early, sustained, and placesensitive policies that address multiple life domains simultaneously. Single-sector interventions are insufficient; effective responses must account for spillovers, cumulative processes, and the regional contexts in which inequalities are produced and experienced. Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 4 Abbreviations UTU University of Turku UNED National Distance Education University Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 5 Content EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 ABBREVIATIONS 4 1. INTRODUCTION 6 2. PERSISTENT BENEFITS AND BARRIERS 9 3. LOCAL OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES AND OPPORTUNITY BARRIERS 11 4. DIFFERENT MECHANISMS RELATED TO THE WITHIN AND BETWEEN-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES 12 5. VALUES AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS INEQUALITIES 13 6. CONCLUSIONS 13 7. REFERENCES 15 Tables TABLE 1. TITLE OF TABLE 1 _____________________________________________ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. TABLE 2. TITLE TABLE 2 _______________________________________________ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. Figures FIGURE 1. TITLE FIGURE 1 ______________________________________________ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. FIGURE 2. TITLE FIGURE 2 ______________________________________________ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 6 Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policymaking levels, and perceptions of inequality This report synthesises findings from the MapIneq project on how social inequalities develop across the life course in Europe. Inequalities emerge early, accumulate over time, and spill across education, labour markets, health, and family life. Local and regional opportunity structures play a major role alongside national institutions. Education is central but insufficient on its own to offset early disadvantage. Sustaining the legitimacy of inequality-producing institutions requires fair opportunities and shared security across life stages. Early disadvantages related to family background, health, and place persist across the life course and spill over between education, work, family life, and later-career outcomes. Local and regional opportunity structures explain a substantial share of inequality. Reducing within-country regional disparities has been crucial for improving equality of opportunity in Europe. Europeans tolerate inequality within limits, but growing divergence between meritocratic ideals and lived opportunities threatens the legitimacy of social and economic institutions. ________ ________ ________ 1. Introduction This deliverable summarises the main findings of the Horizon Europe project "Mapping Inequalities through the Life Course” (Mapineq). Mapineq has been a Horizon Europe project between eight European organisations, running from 2022 to 2025. The project stemmed from shared research interests and extensive prior studies by the PIs and co-PIs Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 7 of the participating research groups on the changing social inequalities through the life course and between generations across Europe and other developed societies. 1 Many prominent international organisations and academic scholars have reported the increasing global economic and social inequalities since the 1980s (Atkinson and Bourguignon 2014; Milanovic 2016; Piketty 2014; UN News 2020; Wilkinson and Pickett 2009). The same studies suggested that trends in different educational and socioeconomic outcomes appeared correlated, but could not provide clear answers regarding potential reasons. These findings on inequalities of outcomes in terms of the distribution of income, wealth and health have emerged with findings suggesting that social mobility - the main indicator for equality of opportunity - is no longer increasing or is even decreasing (Bernardi and Ballarino 2016). Yet the empirical evidence on the links between equality of outcomes and equality of opportunity is still surprisingly weak. While having smaller inequalities of outcomes seems to be associated with a relatively high level of equality of opportunity, it seems that the same level of equality of opportunity can be achieved with varying levels of equality of outcomes (Beller and Hout 2006; Bukodi, Paskov, and Nolan 2020; EspingAndersen 2015; Hertel and Groh-Samberg 2019). However, for Mapineq partners, there were clear potential explanations for the observed correlations. First, earlier research indicated that inequalities in one life domain can readily spill over into other domains, with multiple mechanisms by which social inequalities persist and develop across the life course. Take, for instance, the associations between education, income and wealth. Education, typically the highest level attained by early adulthood, is one of the best predictors of both income throughout the subsequent life course and later-life wealth (Card 1999; Deming 2022; Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2004). However, education can hardly determine either income or wealth. Most income differences that lead to wealth disparities are attributable to job-related earnings. Labour market rewards for skills acquired through education can be taken as a valuable signal of such skills, or, for instance, of the social connections one may have acquired in education. However, no form of education can guarantee a specific level of earnings, even for jobs that require a particular degree (e.g., a medical doctor). Education is strongly correlated with cognitive abilities and non-cognitive skills, both of which are rewarded in the labour market, regardless of whether a person holds an educational degree (Anger 2012; Baker et al. 2015; Flynn 2007). But an educational degree also signals other social interactions, such as friendship networks and partnership matching (Blossfeld 2009; Wang and Wellman 2010), both of which may have further impact on job market success, earnings, and wealth accumulation (Blanden, Gregg, and Macmillan 2007). Both cognitive abilities and non-cognitive skills are genetically heritable 1 University of Turku: Jani Erola & Elina Kilpi-Jakonen, UNED Madrid: Fabrizio Bernardi, WZB Berlin: Heike Solga & Jan Heisig, University of Tallinn: Marge Unt, Stockholm University: Markus Jäntti, Population Europe of Max Planck Society: Andreas Edel & Daniela Del Vono, Uiveristy of Groningen and University of Oxford: Melinda Mills Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 8 (Krapohl et al. 2014; Malanchini et al. 2024), which is why the ancestors of a highly able person may have had similar abilities and skills that may have helped them to succeed in their lives, potentially having a positive impact on wealth through financial and material inheritance. If parents already have higher education, they are likely better able to help their children navigate the education system, further increasing their chances of securing a better-paid position themselves (Forster and van de Werfhorst 2020). Thus, education matters because it plays multiple roles in processes that lead to income and wealth inequalities, functioning as a cause, mediator, moderator, and confounder simultaneously. The researchers in the Mapineq project believed that the same might be true for multiple socioeconomic factors, across life-course stages and domains, often manifesting as unexpected or unintended spillover effects. Second, evidence from previous studies consistently suggests that institutional contexts matter, as evidenced by country-level differences. But expanding evidence on the importance of within-country, regional, or local-level inequalities in explaining large parts of the changing inequalities (Chetty et al. 2018; Duta and Iannelli 2018; McMullin et al. 2021). Here, local opportunity structures, such as available educational and employment opportunities, were considered essential factors that have often been ignored in previous studies. It nonetheless became quickly clear to research teams that data on such regional or locallevel factors were poorly available and rarely readily organised in a manner that would allow their direct use in research. To overcome this limitation, the project developed the MapineqLink database and web tool, which can be used for both the description and research of such effects (Mills and Leasure 2024). The database will also be updated after the project ends to facilitate further research that requires such information. Third, the research teams observed that many externalities beyond persistent global mechanisms and institutional or regional factors were important for inequality trends. The research had already extensively examined effects such as economic crises, and the COVID-19 pandemic was still fresh in 2022. There were also persistent externalities that were not expected to disappear any time soon, such as low fertility, population ageing, and global warming. While it was clear that a single research project could not cover all such externalities, our aim was still to study sufficiently many of them to draw conclusions about shared aspects of these factors. Thus, the research questions of the Mapineq project to be answered were: 1. How do local and national opportunity structures enhance, suppress, or mediate inequalities? 2. How do changes and spillovers across the life domains and over the life course contribute to inequalities? 3. How are inequalities influenced by policies and societal shocks? The project’s findings are primarily derived from European or, on occasion, US data. In most cases, data availability was the most important factor limiting the selection of target countries. However, we believe many of the results are applicable across different country contexts, while accounting for institutional differences. Synthesis on the inequalities across the life course and policy-making levels, and perceptions of inequality 9 Key concepts Opportunity structures Social institutions, demographic and macroeconomic conditions, and socio-environmental contexts (e.g., education, labour market, family, physical environment), are analysed across countries, regions, and localities. Spillovers Unintended consequences or externalities, where changes in one life domain (such as the family) lead to unforeseen changes in another domain (such as the labour market). Societal transformations Family complexity, fertility changes, migration, digitalisation, and societal shocks like the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 2. Persistent benefits and barriers One of the recurring findings in the project was that the intergenerational benefits of parental higher education persist, diminishing with educational expansion but only slowly (if at all) across nations (Bernardi, Lievore, and Valdes 2025; Heiskala et al. 2025). However, institutional context matters, as the selectivity of the education system remains a key factor explaining cross-country differences. In less selective systems, such as those in the UK, Belgium, and Finland, access is broader, and attainment gaps between social groups are smaller. In contrast, more selective systems, such as Austria, Italy, and Hungary, continue to reproduce stronger inequalities (Espadafor et al. 2024). Many family background factors often considered important are, in fact, largely attributable to differences in parental education. For instance, according to our findings, across Europe, childhood poverty is more likely to result from parental educational differences in labour market returns than from differences in childhood family structures (defined by whether parents remained intact or separated and the number of siblings) (Heiskala et al. 2025). On the other hand, these childhood economic differences, especially mothers’ income, still make a (causal) difference for children’s educational attainment, even in the highly egalitarian contexts of Finland and Sweden (Jäntti 2025; Jäntti and Karonen 2025). However, stable employment is nearly as important as income, underscoring the potential of both income distribution and employment policies to reduce family background inequalities in educational attainment. 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