D1.2. Regional Diagnosis for Climate Change Adaptation

Co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or CINEA. Neither the European Union nor CINEA can be held responsible for them. Swiss partners have received funding from the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI). D1.2. Regional Diagnosis for Climate Change Adaptation Baselines for Demonstrator Regions and Factsheets for Replicator Regions Ref. Ares(2024)6090733 - 28/08/2024 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 1 Deliverable Information Sheet Version 2 – Final Draft Grant Agreement Number 101112876 Project Acronym MountResilience Project Title Accelerating transformative climate adaptation for higher resilience in European mountain regions Project Call HORIZON-MISS-2022-CLIMA-01 Project Duration 1 September 2023 – 29 February 2028 Deliverable Number D1.2 Deliverable Title Regional diagnosis for CCA Deliverable Type R – Document, report Deliverable Dissemination Level P – Public Work Package 1 Lead Partner ZSI – Centre for Social Innovation Authors Alina Bärnthaler, Barbara Demeterova, Katharina Gramiller & Johannes Suitner (TU Wien, Institute of Spatial Planning, Research Unit Urban and Regional Research) Contributing Partners Constanze Fetting, Tess Landon, Emma Neuner (ZSI – Centre for Social Innovation) Reviewers Università degli Studi di Milano (UMIL) & ZSI – Centre for Social Innovation Official Due Date 31 August 2024 Delivery Date 31 August 2024 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 2 List of Acronyms CC Climate change CCA Climate change adaptation DA Demo activity EU European Union FVG Friuli-Venezia-Giulia GDP Gross domestic product IC Impact chain IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NGO Non-governmental organization PGK Primorje-Gorksi Kotar PPS Purchasing power standard SCR Systemic climate risks SETS Social-ecological-technological systems SRA Systemic risk assessment TC Transformative capacities VDWS Regional validation workshops List of Tables Table 1. Socio-economic data for Gabrovo, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) .......................... 15 Table 2. Main CCA challenges for Gabrovo ........................................................................................................... 21 Table 3. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Gabrovo .......................................................................... 27 Table 4. Socio-economic data for Lapland compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) ............................ 32 Table 5. Main CCA challenges for Lapland ............................................................................................................ 41 Table 6. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Lapland ........................................................................... 48 Table 7. Socio-economic data for Piedmont, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022). ........................ 53 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 3 Table 8. Main CCA challenges for Piedmont .......................................................................................................... 62 Table 9. Current CCA approaches in Piedmont ..................................................................................................... 65 Table 10. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Piedmont ........................................................................ 71 Table 11. Socio-economic data for Sibiu County, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) ................... 76 Table 12. Main CCA challenges for Râu Sadului ..................................................................................................... 84 Table 13. Current CCA approaches in Râu Sadului ................................................................................................. 87 Table 14. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Râu Sadului .................................................................... 92 Table 15. Socio-economic data for Tyrol, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) ............................... 97 Table 16. Main CCA challenges for Tyrol ............................................................................................................... 104 Table 17. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Tyrol ............................................................................. 111 Table 18. Socio-economic data for Valais, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) ........................... 116 Table 19. Main CCA challenges for Valais ............................................................................................................. 122 Table 20. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Valais ............................................................................ 129 Table 21. Socioeconomic data for Catalonia, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) ........................ 132 Table 22. Socio-economic data for FVG, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) ............................... 137 Table 23. Socio-economic data for PGK, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022).............................. 141 Table 24. Socio-economic data for Subcarpathians, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) ............ 145 Table 25. Spheres of the adaptation activity space (cf. Pelling et al., 2015, p. 119) .............................................. 151 Table 26. Transformative capacities (authors’ elaboration following Wolfram, 2016) ............................................ 152 Table 27. No. of analysed documents, conducted interviews, and workshop participants .................................... 156 Table 28. Socio-economic data for MountResilience regions (Source: Eurostat, 2022) ........................................ 168 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Gabrovo region (TU Wien, 2024) ............................................................................................... 14 Figure 2. European Green Leaf Award (Source: ric-gabrovo.com/our-work/circular-economy/) .......................... 16 Figure 3. Gabrovo IC for extreme weather (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ............................. 19 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 4 Figure 4. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Gabrovo (TU Wien, 2024) ..................................................... 20 Figure 5. Key stakeholders in CCA in Gabrovo (TU Wien, 2024) ......................................................................... 24 Figure 6. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Gabrovo .............................................................................. 26 Figure 7. Map of Lapland (TU Wien, 2024) ........................................................................................................... 31 Figure 8. Touristic advertisement of Lapland (Source: mediabank.businessfinland.fi/l/ pxrK7TZZ6NgG) ............ 33 Figure 9. Lapland IC for reindeer herding (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ............................... 37 Figure 10. Lapland IC for tourism (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ............................................. 38 Figure 11. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Lapland (TU Wien, 2024) ...................................................... 40 Figure 12. Key stakeholders in CCA in Lapland (TU Wien, 2024) .......................................................................... 44 Figure 13. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Lapland. .............................................................................. 47 Figure 14. Map of Piedmont (TU Wien, 2024) ......................................................................................................... 52 Figure 15. Touristic advertisement praising Piedmont’s diversity (Source: Piedmont, 2024) ................................. 54 Figure 16. Piedmont IC for water scarcity in agriculture (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ........... 58 Figure 17. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies in Piedmont (TU Wien, 2024) ..................................................... 59 Figure 18. Key stakeholders in CCA in Piedmont (TU Wien, 2024) ........................................................................ 66 Figure 19. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Piedmont. ............................................................................ 70 Figure 20. Map of Sibiu with Râu Sadului settlement (TU Wien, 2024) .................................................................. 75 Figure 21. Tourism marketing of Sibiu County (Source: visitsibiucounty, 2024; adapted by the authors) .............. 77 Figure 22. Râu Sadului IC for water scarcity in agriculture (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ...... 80 Figure 23. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Râu Sadului (TU Wien, 2024) ............................................... 81 Figure 24. Key stakeholders in CCA in Râu Sadului (TU Wien, 2024) ................................................................... 88 Figure 25. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Râu Sadului ........................................................................ 91 Figure 26. Map of Tyrol (TU Wien, 2024) ................................................................................................................ 96 Figure 27. Tyrol IC for tourism (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ................................................ 101 Figure 28. Tyrol IC for heat (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ..................................................... 102 Figure 29. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Tyrol (TU Wien, 2024) ......................................................... 103 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 5 Figure 30. Key stakeholders in CCA in Tyrol (TU Wien, 2024) ....................................................................... 108 Figure 31. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Tyrol ............................................................................. 111 Figure 32. Map of Valais (TU Wien, 2024) ...................................................................................................... 115 Figure 33. Touristic advertisement of Valais (Source: Valais/Wallis Promotion, 2024) ................................... 117 Figure 34. Valais IC for water (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology ............................................ 120 Figure 35. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Valais (TU Wien, 2024) .................................................. 121 Figure 36. Key stakeholders in CCA in Valais (TU Wien, 2024) ..................................................................... 125 Figure 37. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Valais ........................................................................... 128 Figure 38. Map of Catalonia (TU Wien, 2024) ................................................................................................. 133 Figure 39. Map of Friuli-Venezia Giulia (TU Wien, 2024) ................................................................................ 136 Figure 40. Map of Primorje-Gorski Kotar (TU Wien, 2024).............................................................................. 140 Figure 41. Map of Subcarpathian Region (TU Wien, 2024) ............................................................................ 144 Figure 42. Conceptualisation of systemic risk (Source: IPCC, 2014, p. 3). ..................................................... 146 Figure 43. Conceptual understanding of transformative regional development (TU Wien, 2024) .................. 147 Figure 44. Strategies towards transformative adaptation (Source: Fedele et al., 2019, p. 117) ..................... 149 Figure 45. Adaptation pathways (Source: Wise et al., 2014, p. 333) .............................................................. 150 Figure 46. Model for Climate Impact Chain (Source: Zebisch et al., 2022) ..................................................... 154 Keywords list • Transformative climate adaptation • Climate governance • Regional transformation • Transformative capacities Note on authorship The regional profiles of the Demonstrator Regions (chapters 1.1, 2.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, and 6.1) were co-authored by TU Wien and ZSI. The systemic risk assessments for the Demonstrator Regions (chapters 1.2, 2.2, 3.2, 4.2, 5.2, and 6.2) were authored by ZSI. All other chapters were authored by TU Wien. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 6 Disclaimer This document reflects the views of the author(s) and does not necessarily reflect the views or policy of the European Commission. Whilst efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of this document, the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains nor for any errors or omissions, however caused. This document is produced under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 7 Table of Contents Deliverable Information Sheet ............................................................................................................................... 1 List of Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Keywords list ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 Note on authorship ................................................................................................................................................. 5 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................... 9 1. Baseline – Gabrovo .............................................................................................................................................. 13 1.1. Regional profile .............................................................................................................................................. 13 1.2. Systemic climate risks .................................................................................................................................. 17 1.3. Regional CCA governance ............................................................................................................................ 20 1.4. Key adaptation actions .................................................................................................................................. 24 1.5. Transformative pathways .............................................................................................................................. 25 2. Baseline – Lapland ............................................................................................................................................... 30 2.1. Regional profile .............................................................................................................................................. 30 2.2. Systemic climate risks .................................................................................................................................. 34 2.3. Regional CCA governance ............................................................................................................................ 39 2.4. Key adaptation actions .................................................................................................................................. 45 2.5. Transformative pathways .............................................................................................................................. 46 3. Baseline – Piedmont ............................................................................................................................................. 51 3.1. Regional profile .............................................................................................................................................. 51 3.2. Systemic climate risks .................................................................................................................................. 55 3.3. Regional CCA governance ............................................................................................................................ 59 3.4. Key adaptation actions .................................................................................................................................. 67 3.5. Transformative pathways .............................................................................................................................. 68 4. Baseline – Râu Sadului ........................................................................................................................................ 74 4.1. Regional profile .............................................................................................................................................. 74 4.2. Systemic climate risks .................................................................................................................................. 78 4.3. Regional CCA governance ............................................................................................................................ 81 4.4. Key adaptation actions .................................................................................................................................. 89 4.5. Transformative pathways .............................................................................................................................. 90 5. Baseline – Tyrol .................................................................................................................................................... 95 5.1. Regional profile .............................................................................................................................................. 95 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 8 5.2. Systemic climate risks .................................................................................................................................. 98 5.3. Regional CCA governance .......................................................................................................................... 103 5.4. Key adaptation actions ................................................................................................................................ 108 5.5. Transformative pathways ............................................................................................................................ 109 6. Baseline – Valais ................................................................................................................................................. 114 6.1. Regional profile ............................................................................................................................................ 114 6.2. Systemic climate risks ................................................................................................................................ 117 6.3. Regional CCA governance .......................................................................................................................... 121 6.4. Key adaptation actions ................................................................................................................................ 126 6.5. Transformative pathways ............................................................................................................................ 127 7. Factsheet Catalonia ............................................................................................................................................ 131 7.1. Structural characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 131 7.2. Governance framework ............................................................................................................................... 133 7.3. Strategy framework for regional CCA ........................................................................................................ 133 8. Factsheet Friuli-Venezia-Giulia ......................................................................................................................... 135 8.1. Structural characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 135 8.2. Governance framework ............................................................................................................................... 137 8.3. Strategy framework for regional CCA ........................................................................................................ 137 9. Factsheet Primorje-Gorski Kotar ...................................................................................................................... 139 9.1. Structural characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 139 9.2. Governance framework ............................................................................................................................... 141 9.3. Strategy framework for regional CCA ........................................................................................................ 142 10. Factsheet Subcarpathian Region .................................................................................................................... 143 10.1. Structural characteristics .......................................................................................................................... 143 10.2. Governance framework ............................................................................................................................. 145 10.3. Strategy framework for CCA ..................................................................................................................... 145 11. Annex ................................................................................................................................................................. 146 11.1. Conceptual understanding ....................................................................................................................... 146 11.2. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................... 153 11.3. Guideline for CCA analysis in replicator regions ................................................................................... 157 11.4. Data sources for analysis ......................................................................................................................... 161 11.5. Overview of regional indicators ............................................................................................................... 168 12. References ......................................................................................................................................................... 170 D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 15 Socio-economic profile The municipality of Gabrovo spans an area of 556km² and is home to approximately 65,813 people as of January 2022, with 90% residing in urban areas. In Gabrovo province, the total population amounts to 103,404 inhabitants in 2022 (Eurostat, 2022) following a very strong decline of inhabitants with a population change of -74.7 per 1,000 inhabitants in the year 2022 (crude rate of total population change per 1,000 inhabitants). Gabrovo is no exception in this regard as strong population drain is a common phenomenon throughout Bulgaria (Eurostat, 2022). The population density figures 49.4 persons per km² and is therefore the second lowest within the MountResilience regions (Eurostat, 2022). On NUTS 2 level, Gabrovo province is located in the Northern Central region. Here, the median population age is 47.5 years (Eurostat, 2022). This number is significantly above EU average and, in combination with high out-migration rates, creates a major concern regarding an (over)ageing population in the region. Average employment rates are at 68% within the age group of 15-64 years, with little deviation between male (69.3%) and female (66.7%) rates (Eurostat, 2022). In 2021, the GDP of Gabrovo amounts to € 885.09 million, which is 1.25% of the national GDP (Eurostat, 2022). The Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) of Gabrovo in 2022 numbers € 14,800 PPS per inhabitant (Eurostat, 2022) and is therefore the lowest in comparison with the other regions. Compared with other MountResilience regions, the risk of poverty and/or social exclusion is the highest (37.5%) (Eurostat, 2022). In Gabrovo province, the cities of Gabrovo and Sevlievo generate more than 90% of the district’s economy. In Gabrovo municipality, the manufacturing sector amounts to more than 60% of the overall production value with the largest industrials enterprises in metal production (Innova Gab, 2020). Table 1. Socio-economic data for Gabrovo, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) Population density (per km2) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Gabrovo Province (2022) 49.4 47.5* -74.1 14,800* 68.0* 37.5* EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 21.6 *ref. to Northern Centralen 1.1.2. Governance framework According to its Constitution of 1991, the Republic of Bulgaria governs as a unitary state with a structured framework for local self-government, which guarantees the municipalities as fundamental administrative-territorial entities (Veleva 2023). The legislative framework for the local self-government in Bulgaria is a progressive and iterative process, incorporating elements of citizen participation, transparency, accountability, and decentralization of power, promoting open governance and local authority accountability. The concept of subsidiarity is emphasized, transferring powers from central to local governments to suit local circumstances (Veleva 2023). National CCA work lies in the responsibility of the Ministry of the Environment and Water (MoEW). Other ministries are responsible for mainstreaming climate politics and developing adaptation measures in their respective sectors coordinated with the MoEW (Republic of Bulgaria 2019). Local CCA work is strongly shaped by the respective local governance which is composed of the Municipal Council – a local parliament consisting of a chairman and councilors – and the mayor who heads the municipal administration and represents the executive power. Local self-governance is expressed in the right to pass resolutions in the fields of property, enterprises, finance and administration of the D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 16 municipality, the structure and development of the municipal territory, as well as social services like education, health care, culture, town-development, tourism, sports and the protection of the environment also with regards to climate change adaptation measures (Gabrovo Municipality n.d.). The budgetary relationships between the central and municipal budgets involve complex financial interactions to allocate resources equitably and transparently, determined by formulas based on factors like population and socio-economic indicators. Municipalities seek greater financial autonomy, yet still rely heavily on central government transfers. Interactions between local and central authorities, regional governments, and civil organizations face complications, impeding effective governance, also in the case of CCA (Veleva 2023). 1.1.3. Identity and self-image Gabrovo province is perceived as a very diverse region with a heterogenous landscape and a close connection to nature (GI4). Its location in a mountainous area is influencing the climate and therefore influencing people’s everyday lives (GI4). The region is characterized by extensive forest cover, abundant open space, and many small settlements scattered and close to the “wild nature and animals” and the forests (GI3). The craft in different fields are a distinctive feature of the region as well and unite the population (GI5). Gabrovo is also known as “Home of humor and satire” – the international biennial of humor and satire in the arts” is carried out for the so-called “May Cultural Holidays§ (Visit Central Balkan 2017). In the municipality of Gabrovo, sustainability and innovation in relation to CC play a major role regarding its selfimage, which is reflected in the following quote from an expert interview: “Sustainability is no challenge as Gabrovo is one of the cleanest cities in Bulgaria” (GI1). Numerous awards, projects and initiatives underline Gabrovo’s engagement towards this progress, which is unique in Bulgaria (e.g. the Green Leaf Award, part of 100 Carbon Neutral Cities in the EU initiative) (GI1, GI2; GI5) and reinforce the perception, that Gabrovo “has a lot of potential and has done a lot of work” already (GI2). Figure 2. European Green Leaf Award (Source: ric-gabrovo.com/our-work/circular-economy/) D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 17 1.2. Systemic climate risks The most important factors determining the directionality and design of CCA are concrete regional climate hazards and consequent systemic risks. This chapter overviews the main climate risks and relevant climate impact chains, pointing to the challenges for regional adaptation. 1.2.1. Main climate hazards and intermediate impacts Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of adverse climatic events, including intense rainfall, heatwaves, cold waves, storms, floods, droughts, forest fires, and landslides with predictions indicating further escalation. Temperatures in Bulgaria are expected to increase between 2°C and 5°C by the end of the century. Projections suggest significant changes in precipitation patterns. All the RCP scenarios for 2016–2035 for annual average precipitation show about 10 percent increase in precipitation for the whole country (The World Bank Group, 2021). 1.2.2. Climate Impact Chain The regional demonstrator focuses their activities on adapting to and warning about extreme weather events in the region, particularly in the city of Gabrovo. Therefore, a climate impact chain focusing on extreme weather events involving urban heat was developed. Rising temperatures are expected to alter seasonal patterns, resulting in the absence of permanent snow cover. This change affects soil regimes and plant growth, favoring the spread of invasive species (GI4). Increased temperatures, coupled with decreased precipitation, elevate evapotranspiration rates, leading to drought. This scenario places additional stress on trees and plants, potentially contributing to crop failures and overall yield declines, increasing the risk of forest fires, and exacerbating water scarcity, which is already a persistent issue in Bulgaria. Higher temperatures, combined with waterlogging from heavy rainfall, can increase insect outbreaks or diseases including the bark beetle and the pine processionary moth, further stressing forests and leading to greater damage from fires and storms (The World Bank Group, 2021; GI4). Changes in precipitation patterns, particularly their intensity, lead to extreme weather events such as floods and landslides. Intensive and prolonged precipitation events heighten risks for the urban environment, stressing infrastructure and increasing flood risk (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021). When combined with hazardous industrial waste, these events further threaten water resources (GI2). The variability in precipitation, with increased rainfall in winter and decreased rainfall in summer, presents significant challenges (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021; Republic of Bulgaria 2019; The World Bank Group 2021). Increased winter rainfall, coupled with cold temperatures and sometimes weekly cold waves, threaten food supply and mobility. This situation affects access to social and health infrastructure and education. Declining snowfall and snow cover reduce tourism potential, particularly for cities in mountainous regions. These changes impact water resources, agriculture, forestry, and urban environments. Bulgaria's water sector is particularly vulnerable, with heightened risks from floods and droughts exacerbated by infrastructure vulnerabilities and a lack of preparedness. Surface water supplies and regions with intensive tourism activities are especially at risk (Municipality of Gabrovo, 2021; Republic of Bulgaria, 2019; GI4). Decreased summer rainfall leads to prolonged droughts and heatwaves. Droughts have multiple impacts on the ecosystem of forests, water and agricultural land leading to heat stress, erosion and soil degradation potentially triggering desertification, marginalization and abandonment of agricultural land (Republic of Bulgaria, 2019). The anticipated increase in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and strokes, especially in densely populated cities, D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 18 due to heatwaves and extreme weather events, presents substantial public health risks. Vulnerable populations, such as the poor, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses, face higher risks. Urban areas including the city of Gabrovo, face unique challenges due to the urban heat island effect. This effect leads to increased health risks due to heat stress and indirect threats, such as higher allergen concentrations. Climate change exacerbates these effects, while at the same time necessitating higher energy consumption for cooling (Gabrovo Municipality 2020). Additionally, the combination of extreme temperatures and increased humidity can worsen air pollution. In 2014, Gabrovo experienced two exceedances of the alert threshold for sulfur dioxide, highlighting the severity of the issue (Republic of Bulgaria 2017). Extreme weather events pose significant health hazards, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, the poor, and those living in substandard housing or experiencing homelessness. Outdoor workers, particularly in construction and public utilities maintenance, are also at heightened risk. These risks are most visible in the city, which is at higher risk due to soil sealing, and overloaded and old infrastructure (The World Bank Group, 2021; GI3). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 19 Figure 3. Gabrovo IC for extreme weather (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Climate conditions and how they will change in the future and intermediary Direct consequences of f hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportun - ties, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability y Vulnerability Exposure p Exposure Impact p Impact Risk Risk Overall consequences s to the region of the combination of all indicators. Population Fauna and flora Forests and agricultural land Residential and public buildings Energy and water infrastructure Transportation infrastructure People who are not used to heat Population is unprepared to respond to disasters People hard to evacuate like elderly, children, people with chronic diseases People with low or no income People living in informal / unstable houses / homeless people Insufficient protection from / observation of natural hazards (EWMS) Incomplete long term planning in regard to green and blue infrastructure Old and overloaded infrastructure Dense / heavily sealed neighbourhoods People without insurance Lack of urban planning / planning register Heat waves Change in precipitation Cold waves Rising temperature Drought Forest fires Heat stress for trees, agricultural plants, livestock and natural ecosystems Increased concentration of allergens (pollen, spores) Water scarcity / competition on water usage Damage to and/or loss of biodi - versity, houses, infrastructures (water, energy, transportation), livestock, yields Health risks for the population (heat related illnesses, higher mortality) Increase of evapotranspiration Increase in occurrence of insects, pests, exp. bark beetle Air pollution Water pollution/contamination (reinforced by industrial hazardous waste) Extreme weather events Urban heat islands Change of seasons Change of the soil regime Flooding and landslides General awareness of the CCA challenges and interdependencies in the region Relatively high autonomy on CCA measuren in the municipality of Gabrovo, well networked mayor Missing awareness for climate change from the population Lack of an effective and comprehensive strategy for CCA in the region and a lack of funding for bigger projects Innovative potential of a diverse but tight stakeholder network that has experience with complex research and implementation projects D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 20 1.3. Regional CCA governance CCA activities should be well-embedded in the strategic objectives of a region and strike a balance between stakeholder inclusion and leadership. Accordingly, understanding the strategy framework and stakeholder landscape of regional CCA governance is important. This chapter identifies key regional CCA-related strategies, how CC and its consequences are problematized therein and how certain adaptation challenges are prioritized. It highlights the prevailing understanding of CCA and the emphasized approaches for tackling it, as well as the most important regional stakeholder groups, which is important for the design and implementation of concrete adaptation activities. 1.3.1. Strategy framework EU legislation and international conventions function as the basis for CCA strategies and legal frameworks in Bulgaria. At the national level, the main strategic document for CCA is the “National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan until 2030”, which builds on the “National Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of the Bulgarian Economic Sectors (2015)”. It is part of the overall climate change institutional framework set out in the Climate Change Mitigation Act (CCMA). While other strategies and programs tackle the topic of CC in general (the “Integrated Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021-2030 (2019)”, the “Environmental Protection Act (EPP)”, “Renewable Energy Sources Act)” but focus more on mitigation (Republic of Bulgaria 2019). The ministry of the environment and water is responsible for the national CCA work (GI4). Figure 4. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Gabrovo (TU Wien, 2024) In the municipality of Gabrovo, many sectoral strategies have been formulated to tackle CC, like the “Environmental Protection Program of the Municipality of Gabrovo 2016-2020” (a “Draft for the Programme for the Environmental Protection of Gabrovo Municipality 2023-2027 (2023)” has already been developed), the “Plan for Sustainable Urban Mobility of Gabrovo Municipality 2021-2030”, the “Strategy for Sustainable Development of Tourism in Gabrovo D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 21 Municipality 2021-2027” and the “Strategy for the Development of the Green Infrastructure of the City of Gabrovo 2017-2023”. The most important strategy regarding CCA action is the “Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan for Gabrovo Municipality 2030” (SECAP), published in 2021 and based on the “Integrated Development Plan of Gabrovo Municipality 2021-2027” (2022) and the commitments to the “Convent of Mayors for 2030”. The “Covenant of Mayors”, involving local and regional governments, envisions, among other goals, the reduction of GHG emissions and the improvement of the capacity to adapt to CC. The municipality of Gabrovo has been a member of the “Convention of Mayors” since 2013. Additionally, Gabrovo is one of two Bulgarian cities approved to participate in the European Commission’s mission to achieve 100 climate-neutral and smart cities by 2030 and is currently working on a “City Climate Contract”, which they must sign until the end of the year 2024 (GI3). The “SECAP” contains one chapter for CCA, discussing sectoral climate risks and vulnerabilities on a national level, setting strategic objectives and numerous measures, how Gabrovo municipality plans on tackling CCA until 2030 (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, 75ff). However, the plan lacks a comprehensive risk analysis and objectives for the municipality itself. 1.3.2. Problem background and prioritized challenges As stated in the above section on systemic risks, the key CCA challenges in Gabrovo lie in an increased risk of natural disasters, changing temperatures and precipitation. Resulting from these ecosystem changes, socioeconomic vulnerabilities are being amplified, which causes a dire need for CCA in the future. The following table condenses the entanglement between ecological and socio-economic challenges regarding CCA to 3 main topics. Table 2. Main CCA challenges for Gabrovo Increased risk of natural disasters and threatened infrastructure Fire and floods resulting from climate hazards, threatening citizens, economy and biodiversity are especially visible in the city because of the high degree of urbanisation (GI3). Increased periods of droughts lead to problems with the supply of water (GI2; GI3; (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 83) and to the death of trees in the city (GI3). A high degree of soil sealing is exacerbating these challenges, as well as the old and overloaded engineering infrastructure (GI3; Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 83). In a broader scope, not only the engineering infrastructure, but also the energy infrastructure and the road and rail infrastructure are vulnerable to various climate stressors (Municipality of Gabrovo, p. 78ff). The current usage of drinking water for irrigation for urban green infrastructures is too expensive and exacerbates the problems (GI3). Opposed to floods and forest fires, for droughts no NbS exist (GI2). Insufficient institutional CCA framework To some extent, the current legislation hinders an effective CCA of the region (GI2). Although the “SECAP” suggests actions for a broad spectrum of branches (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 86ff), more detailed planning and policies concerning CCA are missing (GI3). The lack of financing for bigger demonstration projects hampers CCA action (GI3). As the regional administration is subordinate to the council, it only has limited capacity to counteract and develop its own policies (GI2). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 22 Gaps in knowledge, cooperation and action The lack of trust in institutions and knowledge on CC in the population is seen as a general challenge to initiate CCA action (GI2; GI4). The same holds true for a lack of communication between citizens and other stakeholder groups (GI4). The general perception is that CCA is the municipality’s responsibility, which hinders transformative action. In the Programme for the Environmental Protection of Gabrovo Municipality (2023), gaps in knowledge about adaptation and NbS are mentioned as deficits that need to be tackled (Municipality of Gabrovo 2023, p. 54). 1.3.3. Prevailing understanding CCA in Gabrovo is primarily interpreted as … • Societal adaptation to ecosystem change: Most approaches in the “SECAP” aim at building adaptive capacity in a governmental or behavioural sense (creation of data bases, public registers, public enhancement measures), whereas only few measures tackle CCA in an ecological sense (protection of forest and river channels) (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021). Adaptation is also seen in close connection or interchangeably to other concepts like circular economy, CC mitigation and nature protection (GI2; GI3; Municipality of Gabrovo 2023, p. 118). • Green infrastructure preservation: The maintenance of the city’s green infrastructure (long-lasting woody vegetation) is an important factor in the region’s CCA understanding (GI3; Municipality of Gabrovo 2021). • Incremental but constant deliberative change: CCA is seen as a process of continuously analysing potential threats and take action to either reduce vulnerability or to mitigate negative impacts in a timely manner (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 76). 1.3.4. Emphasized approaches Following the “SECAP” and the expert interviews, three regional CCA approaches could be identified that aim to counteract the previously mentioned regional challenges. Innovative technological solutions and ecosystem-based approaches: Technical interventions, ecosystembased approaches and NbS are mentioned to combat the effects of CC regarding natural disasters but also solutions to enhance the adaptive capacity and sustainability of the green and blue infrastructure system in Gabrovo’s city. These include: • the use of alternative methods for irrigation of the green system meaning the green infrastructure (GI3) • the creation of a database and an app for “cold spots” in the city (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 94) • the development of an early warning system for natural disasters (GI3) • distinct green wedges in the city (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 84) • the afforestation of areas (e.g. for abandoned agricultural land) (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 96) Improved CCA governance: Approaches aiming at an improved governance for CCA are emphasized to increase the institutional capacity (GI3) and mainstream CCA in all sectors (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021). On the one hand, a strengthened policy framework with improved (knowledge and ecosystem) management is indicated (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021). On the other hand, an enhanced focus on cooperation with other municipalities and countries (GI3) and the establishment of working groups (inter-ministerial expert working group) (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 97) are envisioned. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 23 Enhanced awareness and knowledge: Increasing the public awareness and knowledge of CCA is seen as a major driver to change citizens attitudes towards CC (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 98) and the protection of nature (GI4). To build the populations trust in institutions, time and education on the topic are necessary (GI4): “We have the will for change but sometimes we need more information and time to understand things, and to become engaged – that's why information campaigns are really important” (GI2). Gabrovo focuses on measures increasing the involvement of the public, like information and education campaigns (GI2; GI4) and building a network of climate volunteers (Municipality of Gabrovo 2021, p. 97) as well as cooperation with private-public partnerships (GI4). Connected to the mission to become a climate-neutral and smart city by 2030, the objective for Gabrovo in the Programme of the Environmental Protection of Gabrovo Municipality (2023, p. 54) is as follows: “The main task for the Municipality of Gabrovo, in connection with the mission, is in 2023 to form a climate team to work with citizens, businesses and the whole community to raise their awareness of the benefits of implementing measures, as well as educate all people (from the youngest to the elderly) and support the process of transitioning to climate neutrality through capacity building (training) of all stakeholders”. The focus on educating the civil society and strengthening the cooperation of all stakeholders by also forming a “climate team” aims to promote behavioural change. 1.3.5. Important stakeholder groups Government: On the national scale, although the responsible institution for CCA strategy development is the Ministry of the Environment and Water (GI4), the different departments of the forestry agency have also been mentioned as important actors (GI4). Related to the ministries, different administrative institutions (e.g. regional bodies from the ministry of environment, the regional Inspectorate, the district governors) have been mentioned (GI2). On the province level, the RAM, the regional association of municipalities, supports local authorities with providing information, e.g. on climate change (GI2). Concerning the municipality of Gabrovo, the collaboration between the key actors and their individual engagement are supportive tools for the CCA work in Gabrovo: “Both the municipalities and the regional administrations, the businesses and companies, also researchers, institutes at the universities – all are quite engaged in the process” (GI2). The municipality of Gabrovo, however, was identified as the main force, pushing the area of climate change (GI1; GI3; GI5). Academy: With being one of the key players of the local economic development, the Technical University of Gabrovo, as an academic institution well connected with regional authorities and businesses, is also seen as an important lever for CCA (GI1). The “Regional Innovation Center (RIC) Ambitious Gabrovo” developed by regional companies, functions as an interface of industry and science and as initiator of many projects (GI2). Community: With regards to the civil society, national NGOs in the field of environmental protection and climate change are active in Bulgaria, but not in the Province of Gabrovo (GI4). However, following the regional approach of the importance of including the citizens, the population of Gabrovo has been identified as a key actor group (GI3). The involvement of citizens in the decision-making processes (GI5) and a current changing perception of CC of young people (GI4) are increasingly perceived as important pillars for CCA. Interestingly, in the stakeholder mapping of T1.3., no governmental body on national level was identified. However, on regional level, the Danube Region Basin Directorate, the Fire Fighting Department Gabrovo and North Central State Enterprise DP were depicted. In contrast, within the community sector, multiple institutions on national level were mentioned, that were not named in the interviews (namely, “Bulgarian Association of Municipal Environment Experts”, “Bulgarka Nature Park”, “Foundation Center for Energy Efficiency EnEffect”, and “Association for the Earth”). With regards to academy, the Regional Department of Education was also mentioned. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 24 Figure 5. Key stakeholders in CCA in Gabrovo (TU Wien, 2024) 1.3.6. Assessment On a strategic level and in contrast to other Bulgarian regions, Gabrovo municipality already plays a pioneering role with the “SECAP” and benefits from good cooperation and engaged individuals. Like other MountResilience regions, citizens are considered a key lever for CCA. In Gabrovo, it is further assumed that citizens have relatively low trust in institutions. This means that officials direly need to build this trust and engage citizens, which is already happening with respect to the many initiatives for CC awareness raising. On another note, technology-oriented CCA approaches are formulated quite clearly already and many cooperations are occupied with them. In contrast, nature-based, community, or governance approaches are rather vague and lack the same level of concreteness. 1.4. Key adaptation actions This chapter introduces good practices that have already demonstrated how CCA can be approached in the region. These actions are not representing the full scale of approaches in the region but give a relevant overview of the priorities given to adaptation while pointing out different innovative solutions to address the specific challenges and risks that were induced by climate change. Gabrovo has planned to implement or already implemented various projects in energy efficiency and public enhancement. While these projects are mostly oriented at climate change mitigation, they depict Gabrovo’s efforts in citizen engagement and point to competencies and capacities that might as well be relevant for adaptation. Gabrovo has issued a call to establish Bulgaria’s first renewable energy community: The project aims to establish a new photovoltaic system on the site of the regional landfill for non-hazardous waste (GI1; GI2). The renewable energy community can function as a basis for expanding cooperation between key stakeholders in CC. (cf. Balkan Green Energy News) TU Gabrovo also collaborates in other projects on energy efficiency, for example with demo projects in local kindergartens (GI1). The modernization of street lighting in the city was implemented through a centralized GPIS system. Results have been monitored already, showing a decrease in energy consumption of public lighting (GI1). Green Gabrovo is an initiative to give out trees, shrubs and other plants to citizens who then can plant them in public parks, kindergartens or other green areas in the city (GI2). “Green Gabrovo” is a good practice for strengthening the awareness and involvement of the population in CC related topics. (cf. Green Gabrovo) Similarly, the “Turning grey to green” initiative supports the population with material and information on sustainability (GI2). For International Earth Day, different climate initiatives were developed to increase knowledge and awareness for sustainability and CC(A) related issues among citizens (GI2). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 31 al., 2017). Reindeer herding is community-based and preserves traditional Sámi culture and language. In the 2000s, all Sámi languages have been classified as endangered. Increasingly difficult conditions make it harder to retain the traditional lifestyle and ways of reindeer herding, which is based on grazing rotations. For example, reindeer pastures have become fragmented and reduced, due to increase in forestry, mining and energy industries and tourism and construction of transport infrastructure. Quality of winter lichen, the main food source for reindeer in winter has also decreased in recent years which has led to some herders being forced to supplement with bought fodder, which is not the traditional way and also makes reindeer herding less economically viable (Tennberg et al., 2017). Figure 7. Map of Lapland (TU Wien, 2024) Overview of ecosystem and environmental characteristics Most of Lapland’s area is located north of the Arctic Circle, within the middle and northern boreal zones (Lapin Litto, n.d.-b). Therefore, Lapland is the coldest region in Finland, its average daily maximum temperature amounts only to 5 degrees (Finnish Meteorological Institute, n.d.). Northern Lapland's climate is mainly continental but gains maritime features near Enontekiö and Utsjoki due to the Arctic Ocean, with temperatures from -0.5°C to -3°C and rainfall around 400-600mm (The Finnish Climate Change Panel, 2021, p. 95). Winter begins in mid-October in Lapland and lasts for about 200 days (6.5 months), compared to 100 days in southwestern Finland. In winter, the average temperature does not rise above 0°C. In the summer, the average temperature is between 6°C and 16°C. Summer starts in June and ends in August. In summer, the region also experiences the polar day, where it does not get dark (Finnish Meteorological Institute, n.d.). The northernmost regions experience 73 polar days. The warmest day is D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 32 around July 20, with inland temperatures reaching 32°C to 35°C. Heat waves and thunderstorms are common, especially inland (Finnish Meteorological Institute, n.d.). Fells are a unique landscape feature in Northern Lapland. They are mountainous areas that are characterised by unique biodiversity. Mostly, they are not covered by trees, apart from some areas with a specific birch tree. This is unique in Finland, where 70% of the land area is covered in forest and forestry plays an important economic role (Forestry in Finland, n.d.). The highest mountain in Lapland, and in whole Finland, is Halti with 1,365m (Lapland, n.d.). Description and key indicators for socio-economic profile In Lapland the total population in the year 2022 amounts to 176,494 inhabitants (Eurostat, 2022f) following a population decline of -4.0 inhabitants in the same year (crude rate of total population change per 1 000 inhabitants) (Eurostat, 2022). The rate of migration differs depending on rural or urbanized municipalities, with urbanized municipalities like Rovaniemi recording a slight increase of immigration. Similarly with regards to the gender balance, Lapland has an overall deficit of women in the rural and peripheral areas. However, on a regional scope, compared to surrounding regions in Sweden and Norway, Lapland registers the most balanced gender situation (Grunfelder et al., 2017). Lapland has one of the lowest population densities in the EU with 1.9 persons per km² (Eurostat, 2022). As in many rural areas, younger people tend to migrate towards cities, leading to a higher old age dependency rate across Lapland (Grunfelder et al., 2017). In North and East-Finland though, the medium age of the population was estimated 45.2 years in 2022, relatively similar to the overall EU-average of 44.5 (Eurostat, 2022). Lapland’s total employment rate amounts to 71.5% in the age group of 15 to 64 years and differs by only 0.3% by gender (Eurostat, 2022). In comparison to whole Finland, the unemployment rate is 15% higher in Lapland (The Finnish Climate Change Panel, 2021, p. 51). In 2021, the regional GDP of Lapland amounts to € 7,066.43 million in the year 2022 which figures 2.82% of the national GDP (Eurostat, 2022). In North and East Finland, the Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) is € 33,500 PPS per inhabitant in 2022 (Eurostat, 2022), being only slightly below the EUaverage of € 35,400 PPS per inhabitant. The risk of poverty and social exclusion was estimated 17.3% of the population (Eurostat, 2022). Table 4. Socio-economic data for Lapland compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) Population density (per km²) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Lapland (2022) 1.9 45.2* -4.0 33,500* 71.5* 17.3* EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 22.0 *ref. North & East Finland Lapland’s economy consists mainly of tourism, forest bioeconomy, mining and metal industries and agriculture, including reindeer husbandry (Regional Council of Lapland, n.d.). Tourism accounts for 5.7% of regional GDP. 50% of tourists are from outside of the country, which is higher than the Finnish average. Pre-pandemic, the sector was also growing faster in Lapland than in the rest of Finland. Most overnight stays are counted in winter, which is also when most international tourists come to Lapland. Christmas is a particularly busy time, with specific activities tailored D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 33 to meeting Santa Claus (Visit Rovaniemi, n.d.). Tourism is an important employer, 8% of the workforce works in tourism, including many young people. Tourism is especially important to provide employment outside of urban centers (Regional Council of Lapland, 2017). Generally, tourism has a strong social license in Lapland and is perceived to bring more benefits than disadvantages. 2.1.2. Governance framework Governance in Lapland is composed of multiple authorities. The statutory local government of Lapland, like all Finnish regions, are the Regional Councils, owned by all municipalities in the region and responsible for regional development (Hildén et al., 2022, p. 41). The highest decision-making body in the Regional Council is the Assembly of the Council, composed by municipal councillors that depend on the number of municipal residents. The Board of the Council, including municipal representative and one expert member of the Sámi parliament, is responsible for the practical work (Lapin Litto, n.d.-a). The 21 municipalities in Lapland each have their own local government and are governing social, planning and ecological services, CCA related examples include education and culture, urban planning and land use, water supply and waste management as well as fire and rescue services (Hildén et al., 2022, p. 46). As the northernmost area of Lapland is located in the homelands of the Sámi, the governance of Lapland also involves the associated Sámi authorities. The Sámi Parliament is the supreme political body of the Sámi in Finland and has the mandate to represent the Sámi in Finland nationally and internationally, to protect the cultural heritage of Sámi and to issue matters important for the Sámi. This is established in the Sámi Parliament Act article 9, which requires all authorities in Finland to involve Sámi people on measure that impact Sámi homeland or their status as an Indigenous people. The legal framework of the self-administrating Sámi remains controversial though, as the Sámi parliament lacks the authority to advance their status as indigenous communities with land rights on Sámi territories. Currently, their work is subordinated to the Finnish Parliament and does not go beyond influencing political decisions (Kuokkanen, 2024). 2.1.3. Identity and self-image Lapland considers itself capable of responding to climate change in a resourceful way, as stated in the Lapland Climate Strategy (2011, p. 24): “Lapland is a successful region that seizes the opportunities of climate change and responds to threats and challenges”. Figure 8. Touristic advertisement of Lapland (Source: mediabank.businessfinland.fi/l/ pxrK7TZZ6NgG) D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 34 In Northern Lapland, the multiculturality, especially the Sámi culture, functions as the most distinctive feature mentioned in multiple expert interviews (LI1; LI2; LI3; LI7; LI8). In the scope of wide distances and remoteness of dwellings, even the national borders to Sweden and Norway become blurry to the population, and it seems natural that families live on both sides of the borders (LI7). The municipality Inari has the unique selling point of being the only municipality in Finland, where all four cultures and language groups are represented (Skolt Sámi, Inari Sámi, Northern Sámi and Finnish) (LI7). Sámi culture has its own societal values, understanding of traditional landscape and sacred places (LI8), which is also reflected in Lapland’s general close connection and dependency on the specific conditions of the arctic nature. The clear distinct climate of very cold winters as well as the variability in light levels in the seasons impact the population’s annual cycle (LI3; LI5) and, with a view to the numerous tourism companies, is also being commercialized: “Home of Santa Claus, the last wilderness in Europe, and part of the Sámi homeland. Lapland is a destination above ordinary, full of contrasts and unique natural phenomena: Midnight Sun, Polar Nights, autumn colors, Northern Lights, and Arctic cites nestled among Ice Age fells” (House of Lapland, n.d.). Reindeer husbandry plays a crucial role in the region’s identity as it is not only an important economic branch and keeps remote areas inhabited, but also forms and preserves trans-generational values, traditions and indigenous rights (Rasmus et al., 2021, p. 1). Other traditional livelihoods of Sámi include hunting, fishing, handicrafts and gathering natural products (LI8). For the inhabitants, it is crucial that the Sámi culture is represented authentically and in a respectful way (LI2). 2.2. Systemic climate risks The most important factors determining the directionality and design of CCA are concrete regional climate hazards and consequent systemic risks. This chapter overviews the main climate risks and relevant climate impact chains, pointing to the challenges for regional adaptation. 2.2.1. Main climate hazards and intermediate impacts In a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 or lower), temperatures in Lapland would still rise by 3-4°C by the end of the century. The current trajectory points to 4-5°C warming in Lapland. Other studies suggest that the Arctic area might warm up 3 or 4 times more than the rest of the globe. Climate change will have a greater effect on weather during the winter than during the summer. In winter months, temperatures might warm up by 3-4°C, while in the summer months it might be 2°C by mid-century (RCP4.5). Precipitation is also likely to increase more in the summer than in the winter. Heat waves will become more frequent (200-300% increase in heat days RCP2.6). However, heat stress on population is likely to remain very low or low, due to adaptive capacities among others (ESPON Climate Update 2022., n.d.). In winter, the rising temperatures will influence snow cover. Increase in precipitation could thicken the snow cover, depending on the temperature. However, the biggest change is that the snowy season will become shorter, by ca. one to three days per decade each at the beginning of the season in autumn and at the end in spring. Extreme weather events will become more frequent, causing flooding, especially in urban areas (Regional Council of Lapland, n.d.). However, considering exposure, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity, (see Annex with explanation of system risk factors), the flood risk is set to decrease meaning that regional capacities will allow for sufficient preparation to prevent or cope with such events in urban areas (ESPON Climate Update 2022.). In the municipality of Enontekiö, it is likely that there will be more snow as the result of climate change, which may have positive effects for biodiversity and tourism. In Utsjöki, snow cover is set to decline. 2.2.2. Climate Impact Chains We have developed two climate impact chains for the region of Lapland, one for the tourism sector and one for reindeer herding in Lapland (cf. figures below). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 35 Reindeer herding is particularly prevalent in the North of Lapland, whereas the South is characterised by more traditional agriculture. The climate impact chain focuses on the risks to both, the health and life of reindeer, and on the loss of lifestyle and tradition for Sámi people. Changes in summer and in winter both affect reindeer husbandry, and thus the economic viability and continuation of traditional Sámi lifestyles. Higher temperatures and heat waves in the summer may increase heat stress for reindeer as well as enabling more blood sucking or disease carrying insects to impact the reindeer. No coping strategies have been developed yet to assist reindeer in coping with heat (LI5). Usually, there is no active herding in the summer and the animals are free to roam. Calves tend to get marked after birth to identify them in autumn, however, in the heat this is too stressful. Therefore, if the calves do not stay with their mother, it is impossible to identify which herder they belong to. In addition, the change of precipitation, where rain that freezes and snow interchange, makes it harder for reindeer to feed on winter lichen. As rain freezes on the ground, it creates a layer of ice that is hard to penetrate for the reindeer and they cannot reach the lichen. Wet conditions in the onset of winter can also lead to mouldy lichen, which leads to stomach problems of reindeer. As the tree line moves further north, the conditions for lichens are less favourable. They need light and therefore cannot grow as well in forests. In addition, there are several industries competing for land use; tourism, hunting, fishing, hiking reindeer herding, and forestry (LI1; LI3). Each of these industries interfere with reindeer husbandry and the reindeer’s free use of grazing grounds. Wind parks disrupt the grazing habits of reindeer as they are disturbed by them and will avoid areas with wind turbines (LI1). However, since Sámi associations are involved in many land-use decisions, there are very few wind turbines so far in Lapland (LI3). Sámi are especially protective of sacred spaces, that could be completely “ruined” by wind parks. In addition, the traditional knowledge specific to a certain place and its biodiversity would be lost (LI8). Since reindeer are afraid of dogs, dog sledging will keep reindeer away from the paths of dog sledging tours (LI1; LI7). In addition, hunters, who are mostly active in autumn, bring their dogs. When reindeers stay closer together due to being afraid of dogs, they do not eat enough mushrooms in that season which makes them more vulnerable to food shortages later in winter (LI8). These factors combined add more pressure on land use, which means that traditional grazing patterns and routines can no longer be implemented. As the space for rotational grazing diminishes, the grazing itself also adds to the pressure on the land and biodiversity as there is less time for soil and plants to recover (Climate Guide, n.d.). All the above-mentioned factors have meant that many reindeer herders have had to supplement grazing with extra fodder, which increases the cost. Due to increasingly slippery conditions, accidents of reindeer and herders have become more common. These impacts can already be felt now and are set to increase with progressing climate change. Reindeer husbandry is already less economically viable than it was a few decades ago and many herders supplement their incomes with other jobs, for example in tourism. They also receive subsidies (LI4). There is a direct risk to the traditional culture, identity and lifestyle of the Sámi. In addition, reindeer need to be trained to be able to interact with tourists. Discussions revolve around how Sámi culture can be authentically represented. It is presumed that the number of Sámi abandoning traditional lifestyle and language or even living outside of their homelands will increase (Tennberg et al., 2017). In addition, reindeer and Sámi are one of the key selling points of tourism in Lapland, on which this would also have an effect. The second Climate Impact Chain revolves around the tourism sector. Shorter winter seasons with delayed onset of the snowy season, sudden changes in temperature during the season and strong wind and storms are likely to affect the nature-based tourism activities predominant in Lapland. A lot of international tourism relies on activities with snow, particularly around Christmas. Tourists expect a winter wonderland. Especially early in the season (and around Christmastime), snow can no longer be relied on, which affects Lapland’s reputation as a snow-safe destination (LI2; D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 36 LI4). However, as this will be a very slow development, tourism operators should have enough time to adapt to these changes (Tennberg et al., 2017). An exception to this development is the municipality of Enontekiö, which can expect more and longer snow cover, which could have positive effects on tourism (LI7). Temperature increases will also lead to changes in vegetation and animal populations, for example in the unique fell landscape in the north of Lapland. While some of the flora and fauna have a wide range to cope with increases in temperatures, others might not. In addition, with the tree line further North, uncharacteristic trees may start growing on fells, changing the unique landscape feature optically, but also threatening its unique biodiversity (Climate Guide, n.d.; LI3). Beyond effects on biodiversity, it might also impact tourism activities such as fishing or hunting. In addition, due to thinning ice cover, some hiking facilities can no longer be serviced via the routes that allowed driving on rivers. Some providers have now started to use helicopters (LI1). Slippery conditions, including on highways and roads, as well as tracks might lead to accidents or accessibility becomes unreliable, with impacts on the local population as well as tourism activities. Hunting and fishing become more dangerous or cannot take place. More variability in weather conditions in general might increase the days with cloud cover, which makes it harder to see Northern lights, another big pull-factor for tourism in Lapland. Supply of local products, such as reindeer meat, mushrooms or berries are at risk, as well as the supply for traditional handicrafts. In combination, these factors could hurt the local tourism industry, without any adaptation activities are taken up. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 37 Figure 9. Lapland IC for reindeer herding (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Reindeer Forests and grazing land Sámi people Reindeer avoid wind turbines and dogs Land-use changes: wind farms, mining, tourism (e.g. snowmobile tours, dog sledging) Sámi way of life and traditional knowledge inextricably linked to reindeer herding No coping strategies for dealing with heat Strong institutions and regional climate change adaptation strategy Can draw on extensive experience from CC governance Inclusion of Sámi in governance (though insufficient) Lack of awareness of population of systemic challenges arising from CC Lack of municipal or Sámi CCA strategy No municipal or Sámi adaptation strategy Subsidies for reindeer herders to cope with economic losses Change of precipitation and temperature patterns, specifically in autumn and early winter Heat waves in summer Temperature increase Loss of one of the key selling points for tourism in the area Loss of biodiversity Traditional reindeer herding no longer economically viable High reindeer mortality due to malnourishment and illness Increased risk of accidents of reindeer or people Loss of an integral part of Sámi culture, identity and lifestyle Heat stress Mouldy lichen Ice crust between or below snow makes it hard to access lichen for reindeer More blood sucking or disease carrying insects Increasing pressure on grazing grounds Can no longer herd with skis, but need to use snowmobiles Usual summer herding practices can not be followed Less rotational grazing Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Risk Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 38 Figure 10. Lapland IC for tourism (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Tourism sector Fells as unique landscape feature Fauna and flora Population of rural areas Tourism sector dependent on winter seasons and „snowy“ reputation Tourism sector dependent on natural environment and biodiversity, e.g. fells as a unique landscape feature Tourism especially important for employment in more rural areas Strong institutions and regional climate adaptation strategy Unpredictable weather conditions and seasons More sudden temperature fluctuations Temperature increase Shorter winter seasons „Santa in the snow“ and other snow-based tourism offers not reliable Increased risk of traffic accidents Northern lights not always visible Supply for traditional handicrafts is threatened Hunting, fishing and other activities cannot take place or are more dangerous Tourism declines, job losses and loss of income in the region Delayed snowfall Cloud cover increasing Changes in vegetation and animal population, including insects carrying diseases Flooding -Increase in spring -Autumn flooding as a new issue Decreased availability of fish and livestock Tree growth further north, including on fells Can draw on extensive experience from CC governance Inclusion of Sámi in governance (though insufficient) Lack of awareness of population of systemic challenges arising from CC Lack of municipal or Sámi CCA strategy Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Risk Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 39 2.3. Regional CCA governance CCA activities should be well-embedded in the strategic objectives of a region and strike a balance between stakeholder inclusion and leadership. Accordingly, understanding the strategy framework and stakeholder landscape of regional CCA governance is important. This chapter identifies key regional CCA-related strategies, how CC and its consequences are problematized therein and how certain adaptation challenges are prioritized. It highlights the prevailing understanding of CCA and the emphasized approaches for tackling it, as well as the most important regional stakeholder groups, which is important for the design and implementation of concrete adaptation activities. 2.3.1. Strategy framework Being in line with international and European strategic frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement (2015), the United Nations Agenda 2030 (2015), the European Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (2013[2021]) or the EUs Green Deal (2019), there are several national, regional, local and sectoral strategies to combat climate change and support sustainable development in Finland. In Finland, adaptation to climate change has been issued since the beginning of the 21st century, with the first “National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (NAS)” published in 2005 (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2005) followed by “Finland’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2022)” published in 2014 (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2014). The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is responsible for the national coordination of climate change adaptation work (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, n.d.). However, Finland has the premise to counteract climate change with considering adaptation policy in all sectors and branches which is developed in different ways and stages (Hildén et al., 2022). The current strategic framework for CCA is “Finland’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2030)” (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2022). It builds on the climate policy planning system according to the revised Climate Act (423/2022), which aims to enhance the planning, implementation and monitoring of measures for climate change adaptation and mitigation (Ministry of the Environment, n.d.). The reform of the Finnish Climate Act emphasizes mainstreaming and the importance of strong rights of the indigenous peoples. Both revisions are seen to support the adaptation to climate change. The Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health also developed separate adaptation strategy: “Climate change in the social and health sector: Ministry of Social Affairs and Health’s climate change adaptation plan (2021-2031) (2021)”. Therefore, in comparison to other countries, Finland can demonstrate a cross-sectoral and long-term approach to CCA strategies. However, it has been criticized that adaptation measures on a national level have concerned mostly their governance and regulation (Hildén et al., 2022, p. 52). Observed obstacles to successful CCA of Finland are missing legal bindings and interdependencies across different administrative sectors in their practical adaptation. This shows in the lack of concrete quantitative goals for adaptation, which leads to uncertain shares of responsibilities between the respective administrative sectors (Hildén et al., 2022, p. 37ff). On a regional scale, adaptation and mitigation of climate change as part of regional development and duty of regional councils is determined in the Regional Development Act (756/2021) (Hildén et al., 2022). Strategy wise, Lapland formulated various sectoral plans tackling climate change, even if only on the margins, like “Lapland’s Tourism Strategy 2020-2030 (2019)” and “Lapland’s Sustainable Smart Specialization Strategy 2023-2027 (2023)”. In 2011, “Lapland’s Climate Strategy 2030” was proposed as a first strategy dedicated to climate change in the region, whereas it focuses mostly on CC effects and mitigation. Within the development of the Climate Strategy, the city of Rovaniemi prepared its own “climate program for the forest sector” (United Nations et al., 2014). Although “Lapland’s Climate Strategy 2030” has not been renewed yet, regional climate forecasts are being used in regional planning and CC has a high priority in terms of funding which could be indicated in almost all current funding decisions (The Finnish Climate Change Panel, 2021, p. 51f). The “Green Deal Roadmap”, which was developed in part with the “Tourism D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 40 Board”, functions as Lapland’s baseline in the framework of the EU’s Green Deal targets but must be categorized as a voluntary strategic plan (Lapin Litto, n.d.-c). Figure 11. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Lapland (TU Wien, 2024) 2.3.2. Problem background and prioritized challenges The region of Lapland with its distinctive arctic climate faces numerous interrelated challenges due to CC. Global warming is proceeding much faster than in other regions and the arctic nature is more vulnerable and fragile towards changing temperatures and other effects of CC (LI1). With regards to the expert interviews, the LVDWS and the systemic climate risks, the following socio-economic challenges, resulting from the impacts of CC, have been identified and prioritized in terms of CCA. In Lapland’s climate strategy (2011), the needs for adaptation are identified in the operating conditions of agriculture and forestry, in the snow dependency of the tourism industry as well as in (winter) flooding and in changed fishing conditions due to heat waves (The Finnish Climate Change Panel, 2021, p. 51f). Nowadays, CCA has become more urgent and its requirements more complex. Rising temperatures lead to changes in snow availability and water bodies in the northern parts (LVDWS). When snow comes earlier than it used to be, the icing of lakes and rivers, important surfaces for humans and animals, is too thin and leads to dangerous paths and an increased risk of incidents (LI7; LI9). The higher temperatures also increase the melting of peatlands ice, resulting in the release of carbon and loss of habitats for distinctive species (LI3). Invasive species appear more and more and are threatening the availability of vegetation (LI5; LVDWS). The forest line on top of the fells is rising due to increasing temperatures, especially pine trees seem to spread out (LI4). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 47 than in the past, one person might even have both professions, which is helpful to build trust between the sectors (LI7). 2.5.2. Regional validation workshop The regional validation workshop aimed at presenting, critically discussing, and further developing initial hypotheses and interim findings on transformative adaptation with knowledgeable regional actors. The workshop hence consisted of two parts: In a first session, regional CCA measures, challenges and opportunities deriving from the previous analysis were presented and subsequently debated in smaller groups as well as in the plenum. In the second session, regional transformative capacities that were identified as relevant by the research team were introduced and put up for discussion. This gave participants the opportunity to share feedback, give concrete examples stemming from their own experience or bring in new ideas for effective CCA governance. Figure 13. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Lapland. Particularly relevant topics that were addressed include CCA strategies and coordination, the scope for action of independent communities and regional specific windows of opportunities. The participants in the workshop addressed that CCA efforts in Lapland are fragmented with no central coordination despite many ongoing projects. It was stated, that although there is a network for CCA research that meets regularly, there's a need for better information sharing and building connections. With regards to governance on a national level the following quote reflects a need for better representation of the region: “National CCA planning and strategies are not taking Lapland’s special conditions into consideration well” (LVDWS). For small communities, taking on a bigger role is challenging if municipalities are not proactive: “Currently more reacting to changes, no long term CCA planning” (LVDWS). Although these communities may have access to resources, they often lack the capacity to participate fully, and there’s a need for their voices to be heard more actively. In terms of system awareness, the participants indicated a need for “Interdisciplinary in D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 48 research (e.g. environmental, climate and economical research) and communication between different sectors” (LVDWS). The workshop was conducted in an online format on June 17, 2024, from 14:00 to 16:00 (EEST) with an audience of 21 participants. The online tool Miro was used to facilitate visualization of discussion points. 2.5.3. Regional transformative capacities Overcoming a focus on mere adaptation responses towards more long-term transformative change, the concept of transformative regional capacities offers a perspective on the wider interplay, forming a more systemic perspective. The last step of the regional CCA analysis aimed at the identification of regional strengths and transformative capacities by assessing regional/local implementation barriers and existing regional capacities. Building on the analysis results and workshop responses (conducted in June 2024), transformative regional capacities were determined. The framework proposed by Wolfram’s (2016) of ten adaptive capacities addresses organisational visions, work culture, structures, skills, human and material resources, but also community participation, relations, networks and institutions, and the understanding of existing systems. For the regional climate change analysis, the most relevant transformative capacities were identified to guide adaptation action, particularly with regards to the regional Demo Activities (DAs). Table 6. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Lapland Inclusive and Multiform Governance Lapland is a region that can draw knowledge from the broad governance on CC mitigation. To accelerate Lapland’s transformative capacity regarding an improved governance on adaptation, a coordinated approach for CCA in Lapland with a supportive legal framework is needed (LVDWS). An institutionalization of CCA to form it to a yearly process (similar to the topic safety) could be a lever for regional CCA (LVDWS). The Sámi parliament, representing the Sámi communities, is formally involved in political decisions and works autonomously in the field of CC. However, the Sámi’s demands for CC work are not sufficiently recognized from higher political levels. The whole region of Lapland can profit from an intensified cooperation and inclusion of the Sámi community. Furthermore, a wide stakeholder participation must include representatives from all sectors: the whole tourism industry and the health care sector, as well as NGOs, which should be more involved in the decision-making process, have been mentioned specifically (LI3; LVDWS). Facilitating a wide stakeholder participation formed by sectors, as in CCA networks, are needed (LVDWS). As crucial step for an ameliorated CCA governance, comprehensive adaptation plans for Lapland’s typical small business have been noted (LVDWS). Additionally, incentives, like financial compensation, could trigger landowners to begin with more concrete CCA work, like the restoration of the environment to support flood protection (LVDWS). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 49 Empowered & Autonomous Communities With regards to the independent indigenous Sámi people, a special focus of CCA must lie on the empowerment of autonomous communities in Lapland. Currently, independent communities are involved in CCA through a listing of grants directed to environmental and climate projects on adaptation (LVDWS). Local associations can apply for funding, for example from leader groups (LVDWS). The Akwé: Kon model for the participation of Sámi in the management and use of wilderness area and natural resources is already a used tool. Strongly connected to the focus on inclusive governance, communities would benefit from a strategy on municipal level to comprehend smaller or village-level involvement (LVDWS). Similarly, there is not enough skills and knowledge of CCA in independent communities (LVDWS), which could be counteracted with comprehensive plans. Shared Understanding, Memory and System Awareness Based on the complexity of Lapland’s CCA situation with regards to the multiculturality and different requirements of land use, a shared understanding of relevant systems in relation with CCA is indispensable. The common awareness for rising CC-induced challenges and the self-evident sustainable lifestyle of the inhabitants can function as an opportunity to build this awareness similarly to CCA. For a shared understanding and system awareness, interdisciplinary research (e.g. environmental, climate and economical research) and communication between different sectors is needed (LVDWS). Similarly, accessibility to information can function as a CCA lever, like enhancing the dissemination of projects. (LVDWS). 2.5.4. Concrete advice for the DA and beyond Profit from the knowledge of prior projects: Lapland can already draw knowledge with regards to CC from various projects conducted in the region, especially in cooperation with reindeer herders. As working with herders requires an enhanced focus on the inclusion of their reality of life (their annual cycle, native languages, practicality of approaching work), this knowledge base can function as facilitator for future access to herders and the public in general, also with regard to the DA envisioned by the region, a PPGIS to map citizen’s CC-experiences. Utilize existing local CCA knowledge: The DA plans on creating models of company-specific adaptation plans to increase the know-how in the reindeer herding and tourism sectors. As described above, herders and herders’ associations already implement local CCA to combat changing conditions and remain profitable business-wise. It is advised that the DA models are based on the local (and indigenous) knowledge of the population and developed in close cooperation with local stakeholders. Adress the needs of the indigenous communities: It appears especially important for the tourism sector to incorporate Sámi’s requirements of CCA action. In terms of DA, the adaptation model for tourism entrepreneurs can benefit from the now intertwined link between the traditional livelihoods of entrepreneurs and tourism stakeholders in the region. Expand cooperation between the administrative authorities, local businesses and academia: Due to the sparse population in (Northern) Lapland, authorities and important stakeholders are clearly allocated and can benefit D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 50 from a comparatively direct communication. An enhanced focus on intermediary actors, like academic or regional planning institutions, could help with the DA of creating adaptation coaching. Further suggestions Lapland's Arctic ecosystems, including vast peatlands, boreal forests, and tundra, play a critical role in maintaining global, regional and local climate balance. A crucial step in transformative adaptation is to protect and restore these natural habitats with ecosystem-based approaches. Restoring degraded peatlands, which are vital carbon sinks, and conserving boreal forests, which support diverse wildlife, are essential for enhancing the region's natural climate resilience. Tourism and all other business sectors are required to build economic structures that respect the local ecosystems and contribute to their preservation. This calls for an economic diversification of the region: “Green businesses”, including those in green tech, sustainable agriculture, and eco-friendly crafts, can create new economic opportunities that are aligned with such objectives. Sustainable fisheries, which adapt to changing fish populations, are also key to preserving the region’s biodiversity and ensuring food security. Moreover, as Lapland is experiencing more extreme weather conditions, there is a pressing need to redesign infrastructures to make them more climate resilient. Financing these efforts requires a multi-faceted approach that combines public funding, private investments and international support. Introducing a tourism tax in Lapland (the proceeds of which would be earmarked for climate change adaptation projects), especially those that help preserve the natural environment that attracts visitors, would be an effective and simple way to include tourism revenue. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 51 3. Baseline – Piedmont 3.1. Regional profile Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This chapter introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and outlines the dominant self-image to sketch the normative starting point for regional CCA. Italy faces significant climate change related challenges, including the increase of natural risks due to drought, hydrogeological instability, floods, forest fires or coastal erosion (CMCC, 2020). In the last twenty years the higherthan-average temperatures and the intensification of extreme weather events have increased the probability of being affected by climate hazards by 9%. This trend is also observable in the MountResilience Demonstrator Region of Piedmont. The region is situated in the Po Valley, named after Italy’s longest river, that originates in the Cottian Alps at the French border and streams to the Adriatic Sea. It is Italy’s agricultural heartland and the centre of most of Italian industry (Monteleone & Borzí, 2024). Piedmont has experienced an increase of 2°C in daily maximum temperatures over the past 60 years and a 1.5°C increase in minimum temperatures (SRCC, 2022, p. 10). Data on climate variables demonstrate the increased frequency of extreme weather events (heat waves, intense rainfall and prolonged periods of drought) and the already significant extent of territorial exposure of the region to these effects, causing economic and ecosystem damage, affecting local production systems and the overall health of the population. 3.1.1. Structural characteristics Overview of topographic and functional characteristics Piedmont is an Italian northwestern Alpine region, landlocked, with no direct access to the sea, adjacent to France and Switzerland (Lella & Stamos, 2023). It is formed by 43% mountainous territory (the Alps and Apennines), 31% hilly territory and home to more than 4 million inhabitants (OECD, 2021). The region is divided into 7 provinces (Verbano, Cusio Ossola, Novara, Vercelli, Biella, Alessandria, Asti, Cuneo) and one metropolitan city (Turin). Overall, the region is characterized by a high number of municipalities (1,181 in total), of which 28% are located in mountain areas (Lella & Stamos, 2023, p. 7). The heterogeneous landscape differs strongly with regards to its land cover (43% mountains) but also its socio-economic and environmental features, comprising of urban regions (medium and large cities) and rather remote, mountain and rural areas (ibid. p. 11) Furthermore, the metropolitan city area is characterised by natural resources, important cultural heritage, agricultural activities as well as densely urbanized areas and industrial brownfields (ESPON, 2017). Alongside with livestock farming, the region is characterized by water intensive agriculture, with rice, wine, fruit and annual crop production, in particular in the south-eastern regions along the river beds (Sapino, Pérez-Blanco, Gutiérrez-Martín, & Frontuto, 2020, p. 8, 3). The Po Valley is the largest agricultural area in Italy, as well as a main industrial area, and responsible for more than a third of Italian agricultural production. Agriculture plays a significant role in the region both economically and spatially, thus facing unique challenges with regards to climate change. Agriculture determines the land cover for much of Piedmont. 36% of the region's territory is devoted to agricultural production, amounting to 923,428 hectares of UAA (Utilised Agricultural Area), which is historically fragmented both from a farm (an average of 21 ha per farm) and sectoral point of view. In mountainous areas of Piedmont, grassland is the most relevant crop/land cover, used mainly for grazing and fodder for livestock, and represents 8% of Piedmont ’s agricultural area (Sapino et al., 2020). About 41% of the Po basin land use is agriculture. The Po basin hosts a large livestock population, approximately 3.1 million cattle (around 50% of the national stock) and 6 million pigs (around 65% of the national stock). The most important agricultural products D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 52 in Piedmont are cereals (e.g. rice, corn) and livestock, the latter of which makes up nearly half of final agricultural production in Piedmont (ESTAT, 2004). The region is in the top 20% of OECD regional economies based on size, where manufacturing and agriculture are key economic sectors (e.g. FIAT has its seat in Torino, as well as Ferrero in the region) (OECD, 2021). Figure 14. Map of Piedmont (TU Wien, 2024) Overview of ecosystem and environmental characteristics Piedmont’s climate is influenced by both Continental and Mediterranean regimes, resulting in a unique combination of climatic conditions that contribute to the rich biodiversity and productive agricultural practices observed in the area (Meri, Ronchi, Sardonini, & Viaggi, 2007). Piedmont is also home to the Po Basin, which has a drainage area of 70,000km² in Italy (with an additional 4,000km² located in Switzerland and France), of which 41,000km² is in montane ecosystems and 29,000km² on the plain. The area along the Po Basin is also highly biodiverse and is one of the last areas with riparian woodlands and wetlands, the latter being a very important breeding and feeding spot for many bird species (One Earth, 2024). As the Italian region with the second highest number of species protected by the Habitats Directive, Piedmont is a plant and animal hotspot in Italy (Pollo et al., 2022). This biodiversity reflects geomorphological and bio-climatic features of the area, such as the presence of three biogeographical regions (Alpine, Continental and Mediterranean) as well as high gradients in latitude and in altitude. However, due to the above average continuous warming trend in the region, present and expected impacts, as well as the interdependence D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 53 between the climate crisis and the loss of biodiversity puts both the biodiversity and local ecosystems under significant thread of climate change risks. Description and key indicators for socio-economic profile In 2022, the total Piedmont population was 4,256,350 inhabitants, following a slow population decline (crude rate of total population change of -1.2 per 1,000 inhabitants), a relatively moderate net migration rate of (6.6 per 1,000 inhabitants), and a rather high rate of natural change of population (7.7 per 1,000 inhabitants) compared to other European regions (Eurostat, 2022). Overall, in 2022 the median age of population was estimated 49.8 years (Eurostat, 2022), with most of the Piedmont population between 25-64 years having completed a medium (44%) to low (36%) educational attainment, and 20% having a tertiary education degree (Eurostat, 2022). The labour market situation of the population aged 15-74 years, as of 2022, showed an unemployment rate of 6.5%, however, with a strong youth unemployment rate (15-29 years) of 15.2%. The overall employment rate differs among the regional working population (20-64 years), with 78.5% of men and 64.1% of women in an employment (Eurostat, 2022). The regional GDP amounts of € 145,913.79 million, with a share in total national GDP of 7.5%, and a slightly higher Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) of € 35,700 PPS per inhabitant than the national average (€ 34,400PPS per inhabitants for Italy) (Eurostat, 2022). Table 7. Socio-economic data for Piedmont, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022). Population density (per km²) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Piedmont (2022) 169.1 49.8 -1.2 35,700 66.3 16.5 EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 22.0 In terms of the economic structure the region has experienced shifts over the last few decades. Over the last 30 years there has been a drastic decline in the number of livestock farms (−74%), while livestock concentration in larger farms has also been trending upwards. The decline was particularly evident in the hills (−26%) and mountains (−36%) (Regione Piemonte, 2017). Over the last 5 years, the trend has continued, but employment has remained stable, generally only slightly decreasing, while also seeing a growth in farm owners under the age of 40 years. Additionally, there has been a heavy period of industrialisation over the last decades, which has generally also seen a larger shift towards more people moving to industrial centres (Regione Piemonte, 2020). However, this trend has generally led to changes in the landscape, with more abandoned and unused agriculture land, causing concern regarding land maintenance and ecosystem management. The annual nitrate load exported from the Po River basin has increased 2–3-fold over two decades. Agriculture and livestock together contribute about 80% of the total nitrogen load of the Po River basin, which has led to significant pressure to both surface and groundwater water bodies. Additionally, there has also been a decline in alpine nomadic pastoralism in the area, who often have their livestock (mainly sheep) graze on fallow, abandoned, or unused agriculture land, which helped remove dry biomass and inhibit unchecked growth of shrubs. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 54 3.1.2. Governance framework Different to other EU Member States, regional adaptation strategies and plans are not mandatory in Italy (Pollo et al., 2022), however, general guidelines to adaptation are formulated by Italian Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (Ministry of Environment and Energy Security). The regional responsibilities are divided among different entities, such as the Piedmont Regional Authority, the Metropolitan City Region of Turin, provinces, and the municipalities. In 2014, the Delrio Reform (Law 56/2014), intended to reduce the number of small and scarcely populated municipalities, has led the formation of 14 metropolitan city regions, one of them being the metropolitan city of Turin (ESPON, 2017, p. 4). This resulted in a redistribution of power, resources, and competences between different administrative layers through the partial abolition of the provinces as territorial authorities and the introduction of the institution of metropolitan cities, with a promotion of the associations and a merger of small municipalities. Accordingly, these reforms led to relevant changes for the regional territorial development framework, where the new metropolitan cities play a key role in providing a layer for coordinating territorial development while the remaining provinces, not replaced by metropolitan cities, remain in a position with drastically reduced resources and competences – increasing administrative fragmentation regionally (ibid. p. 17f.). Given these changes, at present, the Piedmont Regional Authority is required to play a twofold role concerning the promotion and coordination of regional development on the one hand exploring its relationship with the Metropolitan City of Turin whilst, when acting outside the metropolitan city, it needs to directly interact with the municipalities as it can no longer rely on the role of the provinces regarding the coordination and implementation activities. 3.1.3. Identity and self-image The region strongly defines its identity along its rich natural and cultural heritage, but also along its awareness of the heterogeneity between the northern and southern part of Piedmont, one of the interviewees pointing out that there are various “geographical differences in terms of challenges and also adaptation requirements” (PI1). There are differences in water management (in the North there are more consortia), but in any case, good practices for reducing consumption are being tested across all regions. The Metropolitan City of Turin takes a dominant role in the region’s representation as former industrial hub, well-known for its FIAT Lingotto factory where FIAT cars were manufactured from 1923 to 1982. Figure 15. Touristic advertisement praising Piedmont’s diversity (Source: Piedmont, 2024) D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 55 Apart from its orientation on tourism, Turin is increasingly promoting its innovative industrial transition towards dynamic innovation ecosystems, high-value sectors and transportation infrastructure (c. f. Metropolitan Turin 2025 plan), which is in stark contrast to the mountainous and lesser populated North and the agricultural sites in the South. While the North is known for its mountains (e.g. Monte Viso) and lakes (e.g. Lago Maggiore) as important (winter)tourism sites, the South is particularly known (and marketed) for its wine production, especially for Barolo and Barbaresco wine. The south-western parts of the region are more strongly focused on agricultural production (e.g. fruit, crops, rice, cattle). The overall image is also strongly oriented along a rich food culture, medieval heritage and villages, wineries and terraces attracting hiking and leisure tourism. 3.2. Systemic climate risks The most important factors determining the directionality and design of CCA are concrete regional climate hazards and consequent systemic risks. This chapter overviews the main climate risks and relevant climate impact chains, pointing to the challenges for regional adaptation. 3.2.1. Main climate hazards and intermediate impacts Main climate hazards: The core climate hazards for the region are an increase in temperature (mainly for higher elevations above 1500m where temperature rises by up three tenths of a degree) and changing precipitation patterns (Arpa & Regione Piemonte, 2020). Changing precipitation patterns pose a large hazard for the region. In overall precipitation, Piedmont will experience a slight downward trend over the next half century. However, the most pressing aspect is the longer periods of no precipitation, especially in summer and spring. Together with higher evapotranspiration due to the high temperatures, this increases drought risk (Navarro et al., 2022). Paired with more periods of increasingly intense rains this also increases the risk of flooding, and to a lesser extent, landslides (Navarro et al., 2022; Tiranti & Ronchi, 2023). Systemic risks: The changing climatic conditions significantly increase the risk of drought in Piedmont, bringing the topic of water scarcity to the forefront. As the largest use of water in Piedmont, the agriculture sector faces significant pressure from the climate risks but is also a key component adding to the system risk. There are a few aspects playing into this risk. Low groundand surface water availability (e.g. natural reservoirs for water): Due to the changing climate patterns, there is overall less water available during the planting season (spring) which can hurt the agricultural yield. In particular, the shortened precipitation period compounded with high nitrate runoff from industrialized agricultural practices and intensified livestock husbandry leads to lower availability of groundwater. Water-intensive agricultural products make up the sector profile of Piedmont: The agriculture sector in the region is dominated by cereals/grains and livestock husbandry, both in land use and economic value. The most water intensive cereals are typically used in primary (e.g. rice-dominated monoculture) and secondary (e.g. grazing pastures and corn) production. Rice is reliant on water intensive irrigation practices (e.g. flooding) which require a large amount of water in a short period of time. Other practices for rice production, such as “dry rice” and other irrigation techniques, have been tested but have been proved ineffective. Corn and Grazing pastures, although less water intensive on average compared to rice, are often used for livestock feed and take up more land, requiring significant amounts of water for maintenance. While some experts argue for more crop diversification as the best solution, other suggests that due to the strong economic profile of the agricultural industry and complex agrifood system chains, the region is in economic lock-in when it comes to the switch of crops, especially regarding the reduction of meat-based products. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 56 Inefficient water usage practices in agricultural and pricing models/regulation: Similarly, certain practices in the agricultural system, especially in irrigation, also play a role in water scarcity. Generally, there is major lack of coordination (through monitoring and regulation) among the estimated 18,000 water users in the region, and excessive water withdrawal during times of water scarcity and many farmers tend to draw more water than they need. There is a general belief among many farmers that any excess water they use for their production will just seep down back into the groundwater supply and be available for further use in time. This is not the case and excess water is actually just wasted, not ending up back in the ground water supply. However, there is also a general lack of tools and known practices for measuring the amount of water extracted, thus it is difficult for farmers to report it in the first place as well as to build an overarching monitoring system around it. Water prices are currently the mechanism to regulate the extraction of water across water users. The price that farmers pay for water is low, especially compared to the prices paid by other users (e.g. water as primary consumption and energy/industry). It doesn’t sufficiently cover the environmental and water scarcity costs of the high-water use. Destruction of ecosystems around the Po Basin: The ecosystems around the Po River are highly biodiverse and have provided the rich soil and other ecosystem benefits which allowed agriculture to thrive over the last centuries. Along with the climate hazards, the heavy industrialization of the surrounding area as well as the agricultural runoff puts pressure on the ecosystem. Similarly, the development of new irrigation infrastructure, in particular in the southwest of Piedmont region where the infrastructure is considered inefficient/loses water during delivery, would mean further destruction of the biodiversity and conservation in the area. 3.2.2. Climate impact chain This climate impact chain deals with the risk of water scarcity and conflicts around water use. The three relevant climate hazards are the increase in temperature, decreasing precipitation in summer and the change in snowmelt and precipitation patterns. Together, these hazards lead to an upward moving snowline, glaciers melting and higher evapotranspiration. This will lead to impacts such as temporary water scarcity, as described above, as well as natural disasters such as landslides, rockfall or floods. Due to the strong glacier-melting projected for the first half of the century, there is higher likelihood of floods and greater water availability within this timespan. However, this does not eradicate the risk of temporary scarcity, especially later in the summer when there is no more supply from snow and glaciers melting. Water needs are projected to rise in a business-as-usual scenario, especially in urban areas and in the keeping of livestock. There are several elements of the regional system that are exposed to these changes. Hydropower production requires the largest amount of water. Agriculture requires water especially when precipitation is lowest and water most scarce in the region, during the summer and autumn. This includes both, commercial agriculture and small scale and traditional farming. The situation will be exacerbated by the fact that an earlier onset of the snowmelt will lead to an earlier peak in water availability in rivers, removed from the peak of water needs in agriculture later in the summer. Residential areas require water, too. Depending on the municipality, some have separate systems for drinking water and water for irrigation, while in others drinking water is used for all purposes. Finally, tourism also requires large amounts of water, especially for snowmaking for winter sports. One of the greatest weaknesses and main source of the vulnerability in the region is the lack of cooperation when it comes to water management, between the municipalities and between other stakeholders. Figure 4 shows the Systemic Risk Assessment for Climate Impact Chains in the agricultural sector, with a particular focus on water scarcity. The main climate change induced risks identified are the loss of biodiversity (e.g. near river D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 63 landslides. Additionally, biodiversity loss is affecting local communities, native flora and fauna. Cooperation, knowledge and action gaps Establishing effective CCA requires a comprehensive knowledge base on the potential impacts on various sectors. With prevailing knowledge and action gaps, the need for further awareness building, through education and training, and the active contribution of individuals, together with the dissemination of good practices is crucial for successful CCA implementation. 3.3.3. Prevailing understanding  Anticipatory/reactive CCA approach: When natural disasters, risks, or stressful CC events occur that threaten ecosystems and society, relevant measures are taken to address these at reginal and local levels (e.g. droughts, heat stress, flooding, soil erosion etc.).  Preservative CCA approach: Ecosystem preservation is already a relevant topic, particularly because changing flora and fauna (e.g. in the alps) that is threatening local livelihoods. Approaches like agrotourism and protected areas appear as local/regional responses.  Incremental CCA approach: Overall, given the regional CC challenges, smaller adaptation approaches have already been put in place, like adapting regional irrigation systems or changing water intense farming and improving lacking infrastructure (e.g. new/improved dams, planting new crops). Overall, e.g. the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change identifies “actions and directions to minimize risks from climate change, protect the health well-being and assets of the population, preserve the natural heritage, maintain or improve the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural, social and economic systems as well as take advantage of any opportunities that may arise under new climate conditions” (SNAC, 2015, p. 11). Being more optimistic on adaptation than mitigation one interviewee emphasised that adaptation is “a) trying to find the right governance tools […] [and] b) reduce the vulnerability of the territory, even with the creation of new jobs, to preserve and protect the nature, the ecosystem for the region [and] c) increasing awareness of the people” (I5). This points out the complexity of adaptation challenges in region and indicates a strong focus on preservation and vulnerability reduction. 3.3.4. Emphasized approaches According to the Regional Strategy on Climate Change (SRCC, 2022, p. 7), three general objectives are emphasised for adaptation. These include (1) an increase in adaptive capacity (of tangible and intangible resources), (2) the reduction of vulnerability (environment and socioeconomic system), (3) reduction of exposure of people, assets and natural capital to climate. The SRCC mitigation and adaptation measures further identify 10 transversal goals, such as: knowledge building; inclusive governance structures; coherence and active regional climate action; training and new professional opportunities; research on needs and new sustainable economy; people-centred approaches to increase the quality of life and protection of vulnerable groups; promotion of technical and administrative tools for CCA; safeguarding of natural capital and ecosystem services; and a definition of thematic measures, roles and responsibilities together with an regional impact analysis, that supports local adaptation measures (ibid., p. 8f.). Improved water governance, policy coherence and coordination: The interviewed stakeholders see a big need in making the water delivery more flexible, rational, and optimized, that allows water availability to farmers when actually needed, rather than remaining in the current system which assigns farmers fixed timeslots for water usage. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 64 It was further pointed out that there is a need for more diverse strategies such as changing irrigation techniques, introducing new crops, and enhancing water storage capacity, to tackle current shortages (PI2; PI4). Therefore, regional governance is one of the key issues addressed throughout the interviews. Governance challenges include overly complex regulations, difficulty implementing water pricing policies, and the need for better coordination among stakeholders (PI1; PI2; PI3 PI4; PI6; PI8). One actor pointed out that “operating in contexts strongly impacted by climate change requires new development paradigms and therefore requires innovation and shared, adaptive, flexible but specific, effective and rapid solutions, and strongly shared within institutional governance and with stakeholders” (PI8). Resilient local and regional economies: Supporting local economic actors is seen as key action for CCA implementation (PI6; PI4; PI1). As for example “farmers are rather resigned to this fate and feel rather powerless” one interviewee point out that supporting a “generational change might help since older farmers that have always done things in a certain way have less willingness/capacity to innovate or change radically – generating lock-in effects” (PI2). As current practices are often strongly embedded in cultural-historical roots and local traditions, a cultural transition along with capacity building measures are required for developing new techniques and resilient economic practices (PI6; PI2). “[The] idea is to make a kind of training in the field, identify some needs of the farmers in terms of innovation, the technicians give the training in the field and there is also system of coaching, so single farmers can give questions” (PI1). Also, better infrastructure, enhanced ecosystem services and production of higher quality products (e.g. for ecoand agritourism) could help to develop regional potentials further (PI1; PI2; PI6). Pointing out that local actors and “even local companies, such as agritourism, often run by young people, are necessary actors. For example: the municipality of Ostana which has brought a village back to life where there was nothing left, with people who have returned to live there and activities which have been reborn” (PI6). Enhanced landscape, environment and architectural heritage and strong local communities: Local communities are also seen as important key-actors. It was being pointed out that “the territory has very strong communities and also entities (park authorities, mountain communities, protected areas), with a lot of attention to green areas and environmental protection” (PI6). Thereby the region is already exploring a range of solutions, including the construction of new aqueducts, sustainable development projects like the "Caravan of the Alps," targeting sustainable approaches in mountain municipalities, to protect the environment (PI6). However, a stronger collaborative approach is needed, involving local communities and stakeholders to ensure the resilience and longterm sustainability of mountain regions (PI6; PI5). Encouraging citizens to reside in the mountains could be by providing better infrastructure, as e.g. “digitalization of villages is also necessary. Life is better in the mountains, if you prepare the camp people want to go back. Inputs can come from national or international projects, but the key forces are local. […] There are many entities that work well at a local level, for example, the municipality of Balme in Piedmont, in the Beyond Snow project, has a mayor who has worked well by involving the community and local authorities, regulating traffic, limiting tourists, educating visitors, and showing that the actions brought benefits to everyone. Acting in this way protected the territory” (PI6). Furthermore, rather than building new infrastructure, more efficient and flexible water use is seen as key priority, using the existing infrastructure and making use of existing local practices and potential win-win solutions. “For example, building a dam is nice, but building a dam has an impact on the biodiversity, on the ecosystem, on the economy, so it could not be the best solution” (PI5). Active networks, improved knowledge-transfer and mutual problem awareness: Establishing networks and promoting knowledge transfer among farmers is seen as a key lever for improvement (PI1; PI3; PI8). Also, the results of research projects on CCA must be more effectively communicated and implemented to reach the target groups, with one stakeholder noting that “farmers training and knowledge transfer [is] what they need […] [while also] the training activity [and] the information activity must be implemented in order to give the farmer the possibility to [improve their] work“ (PI1). Measures, such as the AKIS (Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System) knowledge sharing system, involving various stakeholders, including producers, researchers, and advisors, therefore can play an important role in this knowledge transfer process (PI1). Different communication channels, such as websites and D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 65 mobile messaging, are used to disseminate information to farmers (PI1; PI2; PI3). The decision-making process around water management also involves coordination between government authorities and irrigation consortia, who regularly meet to discuss water availability and usage. While there is a high level of awareness about the water scarcity challenges, still, further education, knowledge creation, and behavioural change are seen as crucial pillars for sustainable development in the region's water resources management (PI6; PI8). Therefore, it was stated that “what they need is not just measures on rivers and lakes but also to push people and companies to do different behaviours in industrial strategies and also individual behaviours” (PI4). In general, enhancing the decision-making process and fostering collaboration among stakeholders were pointed out as important measures to support the region in addressing its climate change related challenges more effectively (PI1; PI3; PI4). The interviewed stakeholders emphasised, that regional strategies must strongly acknowledge the importance of participatory (local) planning, including active engagement from various regional entities, local authorities, and civil society (PI8; PI6). One interviewee stated that “these actions cannot be imposed from above, we need the accompaniment of citizens, using tools such as mountain help desks. We also need to involve the many local associations we have, which make the region's work possible. Finally, the economic part is also fundamental and must work together with the citizens” (PI6). It was also mentioned that there is a notable gap in information and knowledge exchange among stakeholders, such as agricultural and forestry entrepreneurs regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation techniques (PI1; PI8). Therefore, the “need for a better exchange and knowledge transfer is evident, where a negotiation with “all private stakeholders” is possible and “shared knowledge frameworks” are installed and manage any conflicts or synergies of interests“ (PI8). Many projects focus on research related to sustainable agricultural practices, but effective communication and implementation of these findings are necessary to empower local actors (PI1; PI8). With the documents also highlighting, that solutions like establishing a "Piedmont system" for designing, implementing, and evaluating climate policies is vital for facilitating dialogue and addressing concerns, particularly those of younger generations in Piedmont (Arpa & Regione Piemonte, 2020, p. 22). Based on the document analysis and the conducted interviews the following four approaches can be identified for further CCA measures in the region. Table 9. Current CCA approaches in Piedmont Improved water and CCA governance, policy coherence & coordination Coherent responses (policies) to water and CCA governance and strong cooperation across various actor groups (e.g. irrigation consortia). Resilient local/regional economies Build resilience in local economies – diversification of adaptation strategies, technical and capacity building support (training etc.) and new technologies. Enhanced landscape, environment, cultural heritage and community Strengthening vulnerable communities, comprehensive preservation strategies as well as active support of local livelihoods through infrastructure, knowledge and resilience building. Active networks and improved knowledge transfer Improving local and regional networks, activity monitoring and evaluation of impacts as well as adaptation measures, e.g. through support exchange structures, knowledge and resource management. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 66 3.3.5. Important stakeholder groups The documents and interviews emphasise the importance of active citizen participation and the involvement of both public and private sector stakeholders in climate change adaptation efforts. Key organisations and stakeholder groups involved in CCA include the following actors. Figure 18. Key stakeholders in CCA in Piedmont (TU Wien, 2024) Government (Public): Ministry of Environment and Energy Security; Metropolitan City of Turin; Piedmont Region (significant role in internal governance and collaboration on climate adaptation strategies); Assessorato Ambiente and Assessorato Agricoltura (environmental and Agricultural Bureaus of Piedmont Region and key regional governance bodies in environmental and agricultural policy); Public Irrigation Consortia (e.g. "consorzi di bonifica," gaining power to modify and coordinate water management systems); Autorità di Bacino Fiume Po (responsible for monitoring and declaring water scarcity or crisis periods and coordinating a network of stakeholders);. Academy: University of Turin; ARPA Piedmont (provides scientific support and data analysis, particularly in water management; CREA (conducts research and supports innovation transfer in various agricultural sectors, including rice, wine, and forestry). Industry: Private Irrigation Consortia (significant stakeholders in water management, with potential to influence the system and coordinate smaller consortia); Local Companies (expected to support the transition towards sustainable water use); Insurance Sector (like national insurance for general and climate-specific risks). Communities and Civil Society: Local Communities; Organisations; Environmental NGOs. Other: Regional associations (e.g. Coldiretti: main farmers’ union in Italy, representing farmers’ interests and acting as an intermediary between farmers and the government); IPLA S.p.A. and IRES Piedmont (important for governance and policy support); Interisi (specializes in fruticulture and agriculture, supporting innovation transfer). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 67 In comparison, the regional stakeholder mapping that was conducted in T1.3 of the MountResilience project by the regional partners themselves, other identified stakeholders beyond those listed above were the individual provinces or communes as well as Ente Nazionale Risi, Unione Montana/Alpi/del mare, Istituto Tecnico Agrario, Confederazione Italiana Agricoltori, Azienda Agricola, Riso Buono, Azienda Agricola Falasco, Azienda Agricola Santarosa, Associazione Legambiente, Informatore Agrario, La Voce il tempo, Rete Fiumi, Riseria Vignola, Notizie Oggi, La Sesia, Local/regional radio stations, La Stampa, and Agro Magazine. These point to the significance of the agricultural sector as a key stakeholder group for CCA in Piedmont, as well as several community or other (in this case, media) groups that should be considered in transformative endeavors. 3.3.6. Assessment The overall assessment demonstrates that an improved water governance and policy coherence are crucial for addressing water shortages in Piedmont. Stakeholders emphasize the need for more flexible water delivery, diverse strategies like changing irrigation techniques, and enhancing water storage capacity. However, regional water governance faces challenges such as complex regulations and poor coordination/cooperation among stakeholders. Effective governance according to the interviewed actors requires more innovation and adaptive solutions helping to react to water shortages more adequately. Efficient and flexible water use is prioritized over new infrastructure to minimize environmental impacts. Also, through capacity building and networking activities local economies shall be supported, fostering an intergenerational change, and changing mindsets among actors. Developing better infrastructure in remote regions and enhancing ecosystem services are pointed out as necessary activities, while also promoting higher-quality products to further enhance regional potentials and support local livelihoods. Therefore, for example better (digital) infrastructure was highlighted as one potential action, helping to encourage residents to remain in mountain areas. With active networks and improved knowledge transfer being vital for CCA, regional activities must strongly focus on establishing networks among farmers and different stakeholders, while an effective communication of research, and the use of knowledge-sharing systems are also considered important. Local communities are key actors in environmental protection. Strong local entities and collaborative approaches involving local communities and stakeholders are perceived as needed for successful long-term sustainability approaches. Therefore, also stronger participatory planning and collaboration-oriented approaches among stakeholders should be prioritised to address climate challenges more effectively. More comprehensive approaches to CCA governance, like establishing a "Piedmont system" for climate policy design, implementation, and evaluation can help to facilitate dialogue and address local concerns. 3.4. Key adaptation actions This chapter introduces good practices that have already demonstrated how CCA can be approached in the region. These actions are not representing the full scale of approaches in the region but give a relevant overview of the priorities given to adaptation while pointing out different innovative solutions to address the specific challenges and risks that were induced by climate change. Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System (AKIS): The EU project targeted the establishment of a “Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems” (AKIS). The System aimed at fostering the exchange between agriculture, forestry and rural communities, supporting innovation and exchanging knowledge between advisors, farmers and foresters, researchers, rural networks, national and regional authorities, media, all people involved in education and training, as well as consumers (cf. epi-agri 2024). After having been transferred to the EU CAP Network, it continues to offer an overview on existing national and EU networks and network activities, events for exchange and capacity building, giving an overview on good practices and overall country data, while also announcing calls for project funding under its assigned priorities. (cf. EU-CAP Network, 2024). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 68 BeyondSnow - Enhancing the Resilience of Alpine Space Snow Tourism Destinations and Communities to Climate Change: The EU Interreg Alpine Space project addresses the ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change in Alpine regions in six Alpine countries. Targeting especially small medium-altitude snow tourism destinations and their communities, dealing with the socio-economic consequences of the diminishment of snow coverage, it aims to increase the socio-ecological climate resilience of snow tourism destinations and enable to retain or even increase the regional attractiveness. Trainings and awareness-raising activities, for citizens and decisionmakers at different technical and political levels are being involved, while project partners aim to build an innovative and easy to use resilience decision-making digital tool. The Resilience Decision-Making Digital Tool (RDMDT) represents an automated assessment tool for aware decision-making of local and regional authorities, development agencies and local stakeholders. It enables stakeholders to analyse local characteristics, data and resources in relation to current CC trends and future scenarios, highlight the various development options and recommendations. The tool will be made freely available and publicly accessible throughout the Alpine community one the project is completed. (cf. tourism4-0, 2024). Developing Strategies by integrating Mitigation, Adaptation and Participation to Climate Change RisksDISTENDER – Case Study Turin: DISTENDER is also an EU-funded project developing actionable strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The strategies will result from the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation actions with participatory approaches bringing scientists, businesses, governments, policy makers and citizens together, building on five case studies. The project addresses different sectoral solutions, such as agriculture (crop variety, soil and water conservation and salt tolerant crops), but also topics related to Biodiversity (Naturebased solutions, green infrastructure, reforestation), Energy, Finance, Forestry, Health, Quality of Life, Transport, Urban challenges and water related issues (Flooding, Water Management or drainage). Finally, a “Decision Support System” (DSS) will be developed, as an multicriteria analysis tool taking into account Pros and Cons of different regional approaches and make a final classification of the different proposed robust strategies. The project builds on mathematical model tools and policy maker strategies. It should help policy makers to take the most out of the knowledge, tools and recommendations and further replicate best practices (cf. DISTENDER, 2024). Life Climax Po: The LIFE CLIMAX PO project promotes adaptation to climate change through intelligent management of water resources in the river basin district of the PO river. The 9-year EU Life project involves the four regions of the Po area, Arpa, water consortia, ANBI (drainage actor) and universities, implementing the measures of the national strategy of adaptation to climate change, adapted to local characteristics and climatic peculiarities on a district scale. It deals with both climate scenarios and social and economic aspects, including the perception of citizens and stakeholders involved, with the objective to return a CCA strategy for the Po river. (cf. lifeclimaxpo, 2024). 3.4.1. Learnings The key-adaptation actions in the region demonstrate experiences and competences in the field of knowledge exchange and data management and network activities, community resilience building as well as nature-based solutions directed at biodiversity and water management. Reflecting on the regional challenges, it becomes evident that major challenges to CCA governance and implementation are already targeted and thereby enhancing regional transformative capacities. 3.5. Transformative pathways The overview of regional structure, systemic climate risks and existing CCA governance, coupled with knowledge on the planned DA, allow a final assessment of the most relevant barriers and opportunities for transformative CCA in the region, as well as pointing to the key transformative capacities that need to be utilized or developed further. To this end, a validation workshop was held in the region to discuss barriers, opportunities D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 69 and key transformative capacities with knowledgeable actors. This chapter elaborates on these aspects and concludes by providing concrete advice for transformative CCA in conjunction with the fields of action of the respective DA and beyond to facilitate transformative regional CCA. 3.5.1. Barriers and windows of opportunity for CCA The analysis overall highlights several barriers and windows of opportunity regarding CCA water governance, regional economic resilience, aspects of environmental sustainability as pointed out in the systemic risk assessment, and knowledge transfer. There is a need for optimisation and more sustainable use of water in the region, with flexible, rational, and optimised water delivery system to provide water to farmers. This includes adopting diverse strategies like changing irrigation techniques, introducing new crops, and enhancing water storage capacity. Governance challenges are significant, with overly complex regulations, difficulty in implementing water pricing policies, and a need for better coordination among stakeholders. Addressing climate change impacts necessitates innovative, adaptive, and sustainable solutions shared within effective institutional governance and among stakeholders. Furthermore, supporting local economic actors, for example in adopting nature-based solutions, is critical for CCA implementation. Current agricultural practices are deeply embedded in cultural-historical roots, requiring a cultural transition and capacity-building measures to develop new techniques and resilient economic practices. Initiatives such as in-field training and coaching for farmers, improving infrastructure, enhancing ecosystem services, and producing higher-quality products (e.g. ecoand agritourism) are proposed to develop regional potentials further. Young entrepreneurs and local communities are seen as essential actors in revitalising rural areas, exemplified by successful projects like in the municipality of Ostana. Also, local communities are crucial in exploring solutions like constructing new aqueducts and sustainable development projects. However, a stronger collaborative approach involving local communities and stakeholders is necessary to ensure the resilience and long-term sustainability, particularly in mountain regions. Encouraging mountain residency through better infrastructure, such as digitalisation, and utilizing existing infrastructure more efficiently are emphasized. Finally, also the establishment of active networks and promoting knowledge transfer among farmers is identified as a key lever for improvement. Effective communication of research findings on CCA and implementing knowledge-sharing systems are seen as important measures to CCA. Coordination between government authorities and irrigation consortia, regular discussions on water availability and usage, and fostering collaboration among stakeholders are further highlighted as important measures. Regional strategies should emphasise participatory planning, involving various regional entities, local authorities, and civil society for successful CCA implementation. 3.5.2. Regional validation workshop The regional validation workshop aimed at presenting, critically discussing, and further developing initial hypotheses and interim findings on transformative adaptation with knowledgeable regional actors. The workshop hence consisted of two parts: In a first session, regional CCA measures, challenges and opportunities deriving from the previous analysis were presented and subsequently debated in smaller groups as well as in the plenum. In the second session, regional transformative capacities that were identified as relevant by the research team were introduced and put up for discussion. This gave participants the opportunity to share feedback, give concrete examples stemming from their own experience or bring in new ideas for effective CCA governance. Main topics discussed were based on the identified problem background as well as the emphasised approaches, particularly addressing challenges of a fragmented regional water governance. The participants elaborated the need for better cooperation, coordination and knowledge exchange amongst actors. With great complexity related to regional water governance, participants emphasised the need for more ”coherent [and] coordinated leadership in a bottom-up approach from the very beginning” (PVDWS). Also, the discussion centred on the need better knowledge transfer, data collection and monitoring management to enhance common CCA knowledge. It was mentioned that “irrigation techniques are stuck for centuries”, therefore lacking efficiency. With a general lack and often only onedimensional data “irrigation consortia knowledge should be combined with farmer best practices” (PVDWS) to gain D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 70 better understanding of new solutions that are already tested. Overall, addressing issues of governance, local economies, biodiversity and knowledge building, the discussions then evolved along the proposed transformative capacities, introduced in the following chapter. Figure 19. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Piedmont. The workshop was conducted in an online format on June 18, 2024, from 11:00 to 13:00 (EEST) with an audience of 26 participants. The online tool Miro was used to facilitate visualization of discussion points. 3.5.3. Regional transformative capacities Overcoming a focus on mere adaptation responses towards more long-term transformative change, the concept of transformative regional capacities offers a perspective on the wider interplay, forming a more systemic perspective. The last step of the regional CCA analysis aimed at the identification of regional strengths and transformative capacities by assessing regional/local implementation barriers and existing regional capacities. Building on the analysis results and workshop responses (conducted in June 2024), transformative regional capacities were determined. The framework proposed by Wolfram’s (2016) of ten adaptive capacities addresses organisational visions, work culture, structures, skills, human and material resources, but also community participation, relations, networks and institutions, and the understanding of existing systems. For the regional climate change analysis, the most relevant transformative capacities were identified, based on the barriers and windows of opportunity for CCA, to guide adaptation action, particularly with regards to the regional Demo Activities (DAs). Based on our findings, successful CCA approaches should reflect the following transformative capacities: CCA Leadership Distribution; CCA Projects and Practices; Openness for Innovations; Reflexivity and Learning. These reflect actual regional potentials while mirroring present regional needs for improvement for CCA action (for the full list of TCs, see Annex). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 71 Table 10. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Piedmont CCA Leadership Distribution Strong regional actors are already active in CCA. However, improvement of current governance and leadership distribution with clear and coordinated roles and responsibilities are still needed (e.g. irrigation systems consortia). With strong awareness amongst the political institutions and numerous regional actors already involved, still the PVDWS participants pointed out the need for more policy and strategy coherence, coordination, common visions and more capacities (e.g. personal in smaller irrigation consortia), but also clearer guidelines and participation-oriented measures. Further, also “simpler” solutions should be emphasised to support implementation while decisions need a sound data base to develop clear strategies. CCA Projects and Practices The region shows a diversity of adaptation practices. However, there remains a need to try out new solutions, strategies and practices to provide for alternative economic pathways (agriculture, water management, tourism etc.). As there are already adaptive practices and CCA projects in the region, in the PVDWS the participants highlighted the greater focus and interconnection with farmer best practices and relevant CCA projects, with active testing and support of new solutions as well as an evaluation of the pros and cons of (new) solutions. Further, they considered an expansion of project partnerships as relevant, from the individual company to the university and the institutional body, to involve more relevant actors in actual implementation activities. Openness for Innovations Piedmont already applies advanced technological solutions, but greater openness for innovations is still needed, allowing for the protection of livelihoods, nature and cultural assets (e.g. storage capacity; alternative crops and production methods; changing farming practices; nature-based solutions or cross-border / cross-regional collaborations). Participants in the PVDWS highlighted that there is a great openness amongst innovative farmers to use new technologies, but still a need for the involvement of more pilot farms and projects. Also, since the solutions are context dependent, they should be better evaluated on a case-by-case basis. However, due to the still rather low technology’s readiness and knowledge gap of farmers regarding new/emerging technologies, the need for more supportive measures was emphasised to help to raise openness and increase implementation efforts. Reflexivity and Learning While there is already a strong awareness for CCA in water governance, there is the need for improved monitoring and data collection, better understanding of actual and complex water needs, with efficient and equitable D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 72 solutions at regional scales. Enhanced scientific and practical knowledge would support actual sustainable development and adaptation measures. With numerous CCA activities in the region, participants in the PVDWS point out the need for better long-term understanding of complex and interrelated challenges, especially regarding the water availability. Also, the emphasis was laid on the creation of a standard methodology for collecting data and implementing a common data-access repository, seen as an investment in long run. Further, an analysis of experiences in different contexts was considered important. This shall support reflexivity and learning, the development of relevant indicators, effects and solutions, to better supporting crop efficiency, biodiversity, drought risk resilience. 3.5.4. Concrete advice for the DA and beyond Identifying systemic climate risks, challenges but also transformative capacities, takeaways and major issues that should be put under further consideration for the implementation of the DAs and for successful regional CCA are seen in the following needs. Centralise coordination and simplify rule-setting. With a disparity in the resources and capacities of various irrigation consortia and an overly complex rule-setting, central coordination and simplification of local procedures are necessary for successful implementation. Adopt stronger bottom-up, partnership-oriented approaches. With multifaceted local challenges in water management for agricultural sectors, particularly within irrigation consortia, it is imperative to adopt bottom-up approaches, that ensure that the various stakeholders, including NGOs, local pioneers in polit projects, technical institutions and administrative authorities, are all involved early in the planning and implementation process. Expanding project partnerships ideally include all relevant operators, from individual farmers to academic and institutional bodies. A stronger participatory and partnership-oriented framework would not only enhance the development of practical management solutions but also better reflect the need for simpler, yet effective, procedural guidelines that can address the complexities of water management. Improve data and knowledge exchange. An improved data collection and management approach is needed to foster local knowledge-building and exchange while also help to improve implementation efforts. This should include the integration of (past/present) project experiences to develop robust strategies for water-saving management, that further translate in more efficient implementing activities. Establishing a standard methodology for data collection and creating a common data-access repository can significantly enhance long-term understanding and reflexivity in water management practices. Reduce reluctance towards agricultural innovations and embrace transformative ideas. The agricultural sector must embrace change by updating irrigation techniques and increase local efficiency. Innovation and learning play crucial roles in bridging the knowledge-gap between traditional farming practices and emerging technologies. There is a critical need for pilot farms and projects to demonstrate the efficacy of tools such as decision support systems (DSS) and other innovations. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 79 erosion-prone soils. Besides agriculture, water shortage also intensifies competition for water between industry, tourism and energy production. National predictions indicate that mountain forests will suffer from rising temperatures, stronger winds, and reduced snow cover. Pests adapting to higher temperatures and drought will further destabilise forest ecosystems and increase the risk of forest fires (Ministry of Environment, 2017). The wildfire risk in Sibiu County is already high and is expected to remain so until the century's end (Navarro et al., 2022). Conversely, increased heavy precipitation, melting snow and torrents lead to floods, landslides, and further soil erosion on sloping lands, particularly where soils are most vulnerable. This results in a loss of soil fertility, damaging both plant and grass growth and the land's infrastructure necessary for cultivation. Most Romanian farmers, particularly smallholders, lack the resources to effectively adapt to these challenges (Iojâ et al., 2022; Ministry of Environment, 2017; Navarro et al., 2022; World Bank Group, 2023; RI4). Heatwaves contribute to heat stress in crops and livestock and are exacerbating the health risks for aging farmers. Increased temperatures also drive higher rates of evapotranspiration, leading to soil salination and further biodiversity loss (Roșca, Bilașco, Fodorean, & Iuliu, 2020). The health, productivity, and reproductive rates of farm animals suffer due to heat stress, water shortages, and decreased forage productivity from drought conditions. Additionally, as already described, during heatwaves the demand for irrigation water escalates (Gavriletea, 2018; Tebaldi & Gobjila, 2018; RI2). As poorer population are often reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and fishing, they are exposed more to natural hazards and climate risks, with a higher vulnerability to climate shocks. Small farmers are also facing a loss of appreciation, because they partly lack efficiency in agricultural practices, despite the value they are producing by taking care of the land and the traditions (RI5). The below figure shows the Systemic Risk Assessment for Climate Impact Chains in the agricultural sector, with a particular focus on extreme weather events, related to heatwaves and flooding. The main regional risks identified, induced by climate change, are lower yields and livestock at risk, depopulation and abandonment of agricultural land as well an overall identity loss along with a loss of traditional knowledge and practices. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 80 Figure 22. Râu Sadului IC for water scarcity in agriculture (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Livestock: Sheep Cows, Goats Farmers Forests Transportation infrastructure Sensitive ecosystems Mountain roads Subsistence farmers Fragmented land holdings Drought sensitive crops and meadows Already existing positive regional collaborations on CCA in the region. Growing problem awareness on climate hazards in the region. Various regional actors already involved in CCA measures. Strong local communities and a diversity of economic activities. Lack of coordination among existing measures Aging of farm population Agricultural land Agrotouristic entrepreneurs Heat waves Extreme weather events Change of precipitation patterns: decrease in general but increase of torrential rains Rising temperature Increase of evapotranspiration Water shortages at important times in the crop development cycle Salination Reduction in the production of wheat, oat, barley, maize and rice Invasive species appear Forest fires Severe water deficits Loss in soil fertility Soil erosion and degradation Negative health impacts on livestock animals Low nutritional value of grass Heat stress for crops Upward moving of plants Changes in the composition of the meadows Shorter growing/vegetation seasons Drought Flooding, Landslide Loss of knowledge, tradi - tions and peoples identity Lower yields / Livestock at risk Damage to land and infrastructure Depopulation of mountain areas, abandonment of agricultural land Increase of food insecurity and malnutrition Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 81 4.3. Regional CCA governance CCA activities should be well-embedded in the strategic objectives of a region and strike a balance between stakeholder inclusion and leadership. Accordingly, understanding the strategy framework and stakeholder landscape of regional CCA governance is important. This chapter identifies key regional CCA-related strategies, how CC and its consequences are problematized therein and how certain adaptation challenges are prioritized. It highlights the prevailing understanding of CCA and the emphasized approaches for tackling it, as well as the most important regional stakeholder groups, which is important for the design and implementation of concrete adaptation activities. 4.3.1. Strategy framework Overall, the strategies are in line with international and European strategic frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement (2015), the United Nations Agenda 2030 (2015), the European Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (2013[2021]) or the EUs Green Deal (2019), there are several national, regional, local and sectoral strategies to combat climate change and support sustainable development in Romania. Our analysis focused on the most relevant documents targeting CCA for the region Sibiu, including Râu Sadului, to identify the most relevant challenges and the CCA understanding. Figure 23. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Râu Sadului (TU Wien, 2024) Romania has several national and regional strategies to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, Mitigation and Adaptation. One of the first national strategies on climate change targeting adaptation is Romania's “National Strategy on Climate Change” (Ministry of Environment, 2006), delivered in accordance with the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and addressing adaptation. Later the revised “National Strategy on Climate Change” (NAS, 2013), based on the “Climate Change Adaptation Guide” (2008), was released, establishing the post-Kyoto objectives, targets and actions for mitigation and adaptation (UNFCCC, 2022). In the following, the “National Climate Change and Low Carbon D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 82 Green Growth Strategy 2016-2030” (Ministry of Environment, 2016) and the associated “Action Plan on Climate Change 2016-2020” were adopted. In 2018 the “Sustainable Development Strategy 2030” (SNDDR, 2018) addressed the overall sustainable development concerns at national scale. In 2022, the incumbent President of Romania established a working group on climate change, under the coordination of the climate and sustainability department of the presidency’s administration, to identify the main challenges Romania is facing (UNFCCC, 2022). Particularly from 2022 onward, more pronounced strategies towards CCA were adopted. Thereby, the “National Action Plan for the Implementation of the National Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change for the period 2023-2030” (PNASC, 2022) and the “National Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change 20222030” (SNASC, 2022) were released. Strategies relevant for the regional/local scale, are the “Strategy and Plan for Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change in the Municipality of Sibiu” (SPAASC, 2022) and the “Best Practice and Awareness Raising Guide on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for the Sibiu County Council” (Iojâ et al., 2022). Furter relevant strategies are the “National Recovery and Resilience Plan” (PNRR, 2021), the “National Disaster Risk Management Plan 2023–2035” (PNRRD, 2023), as well as the “Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 20212030” (PNIESC, 2020). 4.3.2. Problem background and prioritized challenges Along with the identified systemic risks, the “National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change” discusses the main objectives in areas such as water shortage related challenges, forestry, biodiversity and ecosystem services, agriculture and rural development, energy and transport, but also population, public health and air quality, education, awareness building, cultural heritage and challenges to urban systems (SNASC, 2022). The region faces threatened infrastructure (e.g. water & transport) and challenges in CCA governance: Planning and governance in Romania is characterised by a top-down approach, with budgets and policies coming from the national government. This leads to inefficiencies, as individual actions often contradict spatial and CCA planning. The interviews point towards the challenge of regional conflicts between different stakeholders and the vulnerability of infrastructure when it comes to CCA management. With differences between administrative levels, but also between individual regional actors, such farmers and the tourism industry, successful adaptation measures are often hampered. Farmers are particularly emphasized as powerful and organized actors in the region, holding significant private land and influencing regional decisions. One interviewee therefore notes, that “there is the conflict […] between the different administrative levels in the region and the community the municipalities …[and] for example the conflict about using the roads between the farmers and tourism, and the farmers are also organized quite strongly in the region, and there are many that have a lot of private land” (RI1). The analysis also shows that ineffective governance is also increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure, such as buildings, transport, and electrical lines, to climate change impacts like high temperatures, floods, and strong winds (RI; RI2; RI3.). Thereby, especially the quality of roads is noted, with issues like asphalt degradation and debris blocking during extreme weather events and the closure of high-altitude roads during winter (RI2). One interviewee stresses out that “[…] the quality of the asphalt […] was not projected to be resilient for this weather" (RI2). The interviews suggest that the regional climate change adaptation strategy did not adequately consider important measures such as ecosystem services or green infrastructures and see a need for improvement (RI2). Furthermore, water shortage due to droughts and lacking infrastructure poses a challenge for the region. One interviewee highlights that, “in Râu Sadului they think they have enough water, but in reality they don’t have enough water […] in the summertime this becomes a problem. We have discussed that with sheep farmers, they said in August and September there is not enough water in the mountains in 2000 m […]. Normally they don’t expect this problem in the D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 83 mountain area, but this problem goes also to the city, you need specific management of the water […]” (RI2). On the other hand, the risk of flooding has also increased in the region, with some areas vulnerable to overflows as a result of heavy rainfall (SPAASC, 2022, p. 42). The Sibiu Municipality notes that, due to climate extremes, there is a significant challenge of drinking water supply with uncontrolled quality and contamination risk in certain areas (SPAASC, 2022, p. 41). This comes also as a result of the discharge of untreated wastewater (ibid., p. 42). Local economies and local livelihoods (e.g. agriculture, forestry, tourism) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The agricultural sector in the Municipality of Sibiu is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods. These phenomena adversely affect both the quantity and quality of crop production. The regional SPAASC strategy points out that “both livestock and crops are struggling to acclimatise to the rapidly changing climate. Intensified wind events (blizzards) and heavy snowfalls pose significant risks […] necessitating comprehensive risk management strategies to mitigate potential damages” (SPAASC, 2022, p. 40). Additionally, indirect effects such as vegetation fires further exacerbate these challenges. The mitigation and adaptation strategy outlined for the municipality recognises the risk of diminished agricultural productivity due to these climatic stressors (SPAASC, 2022, p. 39). Interviews with local stakeholders highlight the negative impacts of increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and the alternation between prolonged dry periods and torrential rains on agricultural activities (RI4, RI1). One interviewee emphasized, "the challenge is, that the animals are not acclimatized to the new climate, but also the vegetables... developing new varieties takes longer than the speed of climate change" (RI1). Therefore, capacity building activities are necessary, because “[…] missing of skills in the economic area is a big barrier, they want to have more nature-based solutions or more smart solutions to climate change adaptation, but in reality, they don’t have the companies and skills to do it (RI2). The municipality also faces risks to forest productivity and diversity, including the carbon storage capacity of forests (RI3, RI4). Climatic conditions such as high temperatures and droughts, alongside the increasing aggressiveness of pests, are shifting the boundaries between forests and pastures. Moreover, there is an elevated risk of natural forest fires during the hot season due to high temperatures and electrical discharges (SPAASC, 2022, p. 40). Also, an increased risk of windfall, due to the occurrence of wind intensifications (blizzards) or heavy snowfalls occurs more often (ibid.). The vulnerability of tourism and recreation sectors in the Municipality of Sibiu to climate change are emphasised out as well (RI1, RI2). Recreational activities are increasingly threatened by hazardous weather events. High maximum temperatures and heat waves pose significant risks, potentially deterring participation in outdoor activities and diminishing the overall quality of the tourist experience (SPAASC, 2022, p. 49). The region is nationally renowned for its winter sports tourism however, rising temperatures in the coming decades are expected to severely restrict winter tourism and recreational activities (ibid.). With the temperature increase threatening the length of the tourist season, an interviewee highlighted that economic pressures on tourism businesses are also harming the local environment by stating, "if you want to be profitable, you have to have artificial snow, that means increased water consumption and energy consumption" (RI2). Further, some of the natural areas of special value do not have the status of a protected area (e.g. Padina Goalÿ, Padina Tiiÿelului, Fântâna Rece, Lunca Rusciorului), increasing their vulnerability in the context of the climate changes (SPAASC, 2022, p. 41). For example, the Păltiniș tourist region or the nature reserve Dumbrava Sibiului Natural Park are affected by multiple pressures, such as drought, high temperatures and heavy rainfall. With increasing human pressures, like the fragmentation of habitats or unbalanced visitor’s programmes, local species of flora and fauna are put at considerable risk and require better protection of natural/cultural heritage (RI2; RI4). There is an insufficient problem awareness and acceptance of CCA measures. One significant barrier to implementing alternative flood management solutions is the limited awareness and prevailing scepticism towards non-traditional methods (RI3, RI4, RI5). Traditional views favour conventional measures such as constructing channels and dikes. An interviewee noted, "If you want another [alternative] solution... you are crazy and nobody trusts you" (RI2), which also highlights a pervasive resistance within institutions to adopt innovative approaches. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 84 There is also a noted deficiency in awareness-raising efforts in in general, which contributes to the public's uncertainty about appropriate actions to address climate change. An interviewee pointed out that "people do not know what to do and the package of awareness raising somehow is missing in Romania"(RI5). Overall, lack of training and awareness hampers effective climate adaptation strategies. This underscores the necessity of improving information dissemination and promoting innovative solutions in agriculture to manage climate risks effectively (RI4). The region shows only limited stakeholder collaboration and lack of CCA action. The analysis identifies challenges in collaboration among different stakeholders within the Municipality of Sibiu (RI4; RI2). It was highlighted by one interviewee that "the collaboration between different actors is not so good. The institutions in general are in competition and the collaboration is not an attribute or characteristic for the Romanian government or Romanian governance in general" (RI2). This dynamic hinders the effective implementation of joint initiatives and projects. Another interviewee further noted, that additionally, stakeholders often lack awareness of each other's activities, highlighting a significant gap in coordination and emphasising that “[…] farmers' associations, the agricultural directorate, the research institute, the mountain area development agency, universities, etc. […] [we] need a better collaboration and correlation [as] it happens[,] that they don't know what some stakeholders are doing” (RI4). Further it was underscored, that there is an importance of integrating climate change adaptation considerations into investments and development (local / regional) plans (RI5). But also, local action, e.g. thought Local Action Groups (RI2; RI3; RI4) must be targeted stronger. While “the authorities are putting more emphasis on the solutions for water management […] [,] the municipality must take measures to reduce the consumption of the household” pointing out local action as central CCA component (RI3). Also, “in general [environmental institutions] are completely weak, invisible, because the quality of the staff and also the power of this intuitions […] [is] completely limited” (RI2). Together with the absence of a dedicated CCA strategy in Râu Sadului, the municipality relies on the national strategy. This poses significant limitations in enforcing environmental agreements and the implementation of environmental regulations as there is a lack of compliance from local actors (RI2). Based on our analysis, we point out four interrelated regional challenges as main fields for short and long-term CCA action, also relevant for the DAs. Table 12. Main CCA challenges for Râu Sadului Threatened infrastructure (e.g. water & transport) and challenges to CCA governance Governance and management of infrastructure, particularly roads and water, pose a particular challenge in the Râu Sadului, Sibiu region. With conflicts and debates between different administrative levels as well as between various stakeholders regarding the use and maintenance of the road network or the construction of dams, local CCA approaches are challenged. Vulnerable economies and local livelihoods (e.g. agriculture, forestry, tourism) The impacts of climate change pose a significant challenge for local economies and livelihoods. With increasing temperatures, extreme weather events, and water scarcity various local economic sectors are affected, such as agriculture, forestry and winter tourism. Limited problem awareness & acceptance of CCA measures Because of limited local CCA action, there is a need for awareness raising and behavioural change. With low public awareness and scepticism towards nontraditional methods amongst different groups, adaptation poses a particular challenge in the region. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 85 Limited stakeholder collaboration and lacking CCA action While there are some positive examples, the overall picture suggests a lack of effective collaboration amongst actors, both within and across sectors. Factors contributing to this include competition between institutions, limited power of environmental organizations and a lack of communication and coordination. 4.3.3. Prevailing understanding Strategic documents frame national efforts as actions to protect Romania’s “environment, people and economic activities from climate change, especially from extreme events”, while emphasising the mainstreaming of climate policies and actions into smart, green, and inclusive growth strategies (Ministry of Environment, 2016, p. 2). According to the documents, the focus in planning policies and education should therefore be laid on strengthening the adaptation and resilience capacity to combat the impacts related to climate change and increase the public awareness (SNDDR, 2018) However, the adaptation focus is strongly driven by a focus towards combatting climate hazards, with priorities being laid on reducing the impact of climate change on agriculture in particular, on rural development, water and on infrastructure (Ministry of Environment, 2016; SNDDR, 2018; SNSvS, 2022; SPAASC, 2022). The overall the analysis shows that CCA action in the region is strongly oriented along the following categories:  Anticipatory/reactive CCA approach: when natural disasters, risks, or stressful CC events occur that threaten ecosystems and society, relevant measures are taken to address these to combat climate induced risks and natural hazards (e.g. flood protection, local/regional measures to address forest fires, landslides, droughts etc.).  Preservative CCA approach: ecosystem preservation is already present in some approaches, addressing challenges of changing flora and fauna that is threatening local livelihoods, regional practices, cultural and natural capital (e.g. protective measures in touristic areas).  Incremental CCA approach: overall, smaller adaptation approaches are already put in place in regions affected by climate change risks (e.g. water management, agricultural practices, waste disposal regulations). 4.3.4. Emphasized approaches The analysis of the interviews and the documents reveals the following interrelated and most relevant four adaptation approaches for the region. Efficient CCA governance and coherent responses (policies) to infrastructure provision: The National ClimateChange and Low Carbon Green Growth Strategy (Ministry of Environment, 2016) underscores the necessity of providing farmers with enhanced information on land management and water use to mitigate excessive costs during extreme events and to foster the adoption of innovative solutions (Ministry of Environment, 2016, p. 8). National programs, such as the National Plan for Recovery and Resilience, include measures for efficient water management, reforestation, and the expansion of green spaces in urban areas (RI3). Authorities emphasise water management solutions, especially in regions like Centru, where public water systems are insufficient during summer, necessitating municipal measures to reduce household consumption (RI3). Additionally, rural areas benefit from a national strategic plan supported by the EU Common Agricultural Policy, which provides funds for primary agriculture, rural economy diversification, direct payments, and infrastructure transformation such as roads (RI3). In general “climate change and the environment are priorities in the regional development plan and they are transforming it […] but the regional D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 86 program doesn’t have a specific target to climate change or adaptation - but they do have specific measures under the policy objectives to a greener Europe, they have a regional priority in this programme and will support together with energy efficiency […] which could be measures to adaptation” highlights one interviewee, pointing towards the need of better coordination amongst existing measures (RI3). Also, there is an emphasises on the importance of providing farmers with better information on land management and water use. This approach aims to prevent excessive costs during extreme events and promotes the adoption of more efficient, innovative, intrinsically justified solutions (Ministry of Environment, 2016, p. 8). Resilience building in local economies and support of local livelihoods: Better information on land management and water use is critical to helping farmers avoid excessive costs during extreme events while promoting innovative solutions (Ministry of Environment, 2016). Emphasis should be placed also on training programs for local government officials and other stakeholders to integrate climate data and services into policies and regulations. Providing farmers with sustainable technical solutions to enhance the economic efficiency of agricultural activities, alongside consultancy and support for exploiting ecosystem services such as carbon certificates, is essential. Additionally, assistance for certifying and promoting mountain products through agrotourism is vital (RI4). Necessary steps towards halting deforestation to support mountain farmers are more efficient agricultural land management and improved knowledge of agriculture's link with climate change (RI4). Future success of initiatives depends on better organization and education of small farmers to prevent the abandonment of mountain areas (RI5). One interviewee note that “new technology, if you use this kind of solution your work is easier, so farmers are open to that, some already use drones to monitor the herd and they use it and are open. […] especially in this area the agriculture is a real business connected with ecotourism and others […] farmers there are not people “in the mountains” but bosses and they are completely interested in having different solutions to decrease the cost, to decrease damage, to have more money with a small investment – this region is recognized with this entrepreneurial spirit” (RI2). Developing new agricultural varieties to withstand climate changes should be made a priority, as it is progressing more slowly, than the rate of climate change. In building local capacities and more knowledge, better connecting climate information with nature-based solutions (NbS) through discussions with influential local groups, better more effective local solutions can be targeted, though it is also necessary to find new ways to overcome the lack of time in municipalities for such engagement (RI2). Mutual problem awareness, trust building and comprehensive local strategies: This includes local awareness raising towards measures such as the use of climate-friendly materials, incorporating shading and water features, but also and improving trust and engagement of the private sector in CCA efforts. Emphasis should be placed on solutions for individual water management and measures to reduce household water consumption (RI3). It was highlighted that due to engagement in European projects “in the last 8-10 years, the County Council has been actively involved in environmental issues, [like] selective waste collection, waste treatment stations, closing landfills and building compliant warehouses, banning the use of plastic, promoting and financing activities/projects that respect the principles of sustainable development”, resulting in best practice exchanges and good practice guides (RI4). This demonstrates an increasing awareness but it also needs better communication to the public to overcome institutional scepticism towards new measures. It was pointed out that “everyone will need to do it, from public to the private sector to all the citizens, as soon as the citizens are informed and they know the product it is affecting also the producer, that means that these systems are working and it is almost impossible to leave somebody out in such general objective for everyone”, highlighting holistic approaches (RI5). Overall, an enhanced public awareness (e.g. by facilitating the exchange of adaptive agricultural practices) is seen as a critical step for building resilience against climate change impacts. Outreach and stakeholder collaboration: Research institutions, universities, and private actors, often in collaboration with NGOs, play a critical role in sustainable development and environmental activities in Sibiu. Still, conflicts of interest arise, especially in mountainous areas, not aligning with e.g. traditional village aesthetics or local views (RI4). Collaboration between the county and local stakeholders, including local municipalities, private D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 87 companies, and NGOs, is crucial for integrating climate change adaptation locally, also supporting direct investments. As understanding of CCA grows, actors such as Local Action Groups (funded by the EU LEADER program) need to be identified and can serve as facilitators to support regional collaboration and joint projects (RI2). These groups are more active than other initiatives and already receive priority funding from the government. Further, also local communities, such as the Sado River community, are important multipliers and exemplify advanced climate adaptation practices by focusing on resilient agricultural practices and crop acclimatization (RI1). Enhanced collaboration among diverse stakeholders, including farmers' associations, the agricultural directorate, research institutes, mountain area development agencies, and universities, is essential for effective regional CCA measures across multiple sectors and should thus be stronger targeted in the region (RI2). Table 13. Current CCA approaches in Râu Sadului Efficient CCA governance and coherent responses (policies) to infrastructure provision Coordinated water, road, energy governance (e.g. in emergency situations), and increased coherence between the different administrative levels and various stakeholders (farmers, tourism, industry, etc.). Resilience building in local economies and support of local livelihoods Maintenance of ecologically, environmentally friendly farming, forestry and tourism while improving economic viability and supporting new technological solutions, with efforts to support local actors in CCA implementation (training and capacity building). Mutual problem awareness, trust building and comprehensive local strategies Development of new forms of cooperation, subsidies, awareness-raising campaigns, and changes in behaviour, increasing public awareness through information campaigns and advisory services (particularly for farmers) to drive meaningful action on climate change in the region. Outreach and stakeholder collaboration Improved collaboration frameworks, particularly between different actors and sectors, to address complex issues (more) effectively. 4.3.5. Important stakeholder groups The documents and interviews emphasise the importance of active citizen participation and the involvement of both public and private sector stakeholders in climate change adaptation efforts. Key organizations and stakeholder groups include: Government: Key public entities for CCA are the Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests, the County Council Sibiu, several government authorities (for example, central and local public authorities like the Forestry Department and several Regional Councils), the Inter-Community Development Association ECO SIBIU, the Agricultural Directorate, the National Agency of the Mountain Zone, and the National Agency for Natural Protected Areas. Academy: Key stakeholders that were mentioned in research are the University of Sibiu and the Research and Development Institute for Mountainology in Cristian – Sibiu. Industry: Influential business actors are the producer/farmer associations, as well as business and professional associations, and water companies. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 88 Community: Relevant NGOs are, among others, the Văcăre ti Nature Park Association, but there are as well several environmental institutions, civic initiatives, Local Action Groups (“GAL”), and Environmental Guards. Other: The County Tourism Association, Environmental Protection Agency, and several international and regional initiatives such as the Covent of Mayors on Climate and Energy were mentioned as relevant. Figure 24. Key stakeholders in CCA in Râu Sadului (TU Wien, 2024) 4.3.6. Assessment Climate change adaptation governance and infrastructure management face significant challenges. The national government's top-down approach to planning and budgeting often leads to inefficiencies, as regional actions frequently contradict broader spatial and CCA plans. Interviews reveal that regional conflicts among stakeholders, such as farmers and the tourism industry, further complicate adaptation efforts. Differing interests between actors exacerbate the conflicts between administrative levels and local communities, particularly regarding road usage and infrastructure vulnerability. An ineffective governance increases the susceptibility of infrastructure to climate impacts like high temperatures, floods, and strong winds. Poor road quality, for instance, is highlighted as a critical issue, with asphalt degradation and debris blockage during extreme weather events being commonplace. Additionally, water shortages due to drought and inadequate infrastructure pose substantial challenges. The need for better integration of ecosystem services and green infrastructure into regional strategies is evident, as current plans inadequately address these crucial elements. Also, agriculture in the Municipality of Sibiu is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, impacting crop quality and quantity. Livestock and crops struggle to adapt to rapid climate changes, necessitating comprehensive risk management strategies. Forests face similar threats, with high temperatures and droughts, alongside aggressive pests, shifting the boundaries between forests and pastures and increasing the risk of natural fires and windfalls. As an important tourism region, the tourism sector is also at risk, with rising temperatures shortening the winter sports season and increasing pressures on water and energy resources. Overall, limited awareness and acceptance of CCA measures hinders the implementation of alternative CCA solutions. Traditional D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 95 5. Baseline – Tyrol 5.1. Regional profile Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This chapter introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and outlines the dominant self-image to sketch the normative starting point for regional CCA. Since the late 19th century, the mean temperature in Austria has increased by 2°C, which is above the global average of 1.15°C (Bundesministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Technologie (BMK), 2024a). Due to its geographical location in the Alps, Tyrol is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The consequences that are already observed and that are predicted to intensify depending on the mitigation scenario, include, among others, the retreat of glaciers, a (substantial) increase in the frequency of hot days, a lengthening of the vegetation period, and a reduction in frost days (Chimani et al., 2016). 5.1.1. Structural characteristics Overview to topographic and functional characteristics Tyrol is one of the nine federal states of Austria, situated in the western part of the country, bordering Germany, Italy and Switzerland. It is constituted of two parts, North and East Tyrol, spatially separated by the federal state of Salzburg and South Tyrol in Italy. Tyrol is administratively divided into nine political districts and a total of 277 municipalities. Its provincial capital and largest city in terms of population is Innsbruck (Tirol Werbung, 2024). With a total area of 12,648km2 it is the third largest federal state of Austria, well known for its alpine landscape with high peaks, deep valleys and numerous glaciers. Almost two thirds of Tyrol’s area consist of forests (37%) and mountain landscapes (27%), followed by unproductive (25%) and arable land (11%). Only one-eighth of the total area (12,4%) is designated for permanent settlement. Tyrol is home to the country’s two highest mountains, Großglockner (3,798m) and Wildspitze (3,768m), and its second largest glacier, Gepatschferner, covering an area of 17.6km2. The Inn River, which flows through Tyrol for 212.5km, is Tyrol’s longest river (ibid. 2024). Its central location makes Tyrol an important transit region between Austria and Italy. The Brenner Pass, an ancient trade route, is one of the most important Alpine transit routes, especially for freight transport (Rathkolb, 2016). Overview of ecosystem and environmental characteristics Tyrol is characterised by a great diversity of species and habitats. The ecological richness of the province is reflected in its 81 protected areas, which account for more than a quarter of the Tyrolean territory. These protected areas are home to rare animals and plant species and serve as nature reserves and as recreational areas for the population. The best-known of these protected areas is the national park Hohe Tauern, which covers a total of approximately 1,800km2 across Tyrol, Carinthia and Salzburg. Of these, 611km2 are located in East Tyrol (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, n.d.). The climate in northern and central Tyrol is mainly influenced by the Atlantic whereas the southern part is more influenced by the Mediterranean Sea with the main Alpine divide as a clear climatic borderline (Steiger & Stötter, 2013). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 96 Figure 26. Map of Tyrol (TU Wien, 2024) Description and key indicators for socio-economic profile The population of Tyrol amounts to 764,102 inhabitants in 2022 (Eurostat, 2022) with a total population change of +9.4 per year (crude rate of total population change per 1,000 inhabitants) (Eurostat, 2022) and a relatively low population density of 61.4 persons per km² (Eurostat, 2022) comparably to the project region Valais with a population density of 68.4 persons per km2, which shares comparable geographical characteristics. The median age of Tyrol’s population was estimated to 43.1 years in 2022 (Eurostat, 2022). Of those aged 15-64, the overall employment rate was estimated 77.8% (male: 82.5%; female: 73.1%) which is close to the EU-average (Eurostat, 2022). The risk of poverty or social exclusion was estimated to be 19.2% (Eurostat, 2022). The regional Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) numbers € 45,600 PPS per inhabitant (Eurostat, 2022), making it the second highest PPS in comparison with the other project regions, just behind Valais. Around 37% of Tyrol's gross regional product (GRP) is concentrated in Innsbruck and its immediate surroundings (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2023, p. 10). Tyrol’s economy is strongly based on the industrial and the tourism sector: The highest gross values in the year 2020 were generated by manufacturing (€ 4.77 billion); trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (€ 2.58 billion) and accommodation and catering (€ 2.29 billion). The importance of the service sector and subsequently of tourism becomes evident when looking at the employees of Tyrol: 63% of employees work in the service sector, whereas only 37% work in the manufacturing sector. (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2023, p. 6ff). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 97 Tourism is an important source of income for the whole region, especially winter tourism, accounting for almost half of annual stays. Considering the whole year, 32% of all overnight stays of Austria were booked in Tyrol (Statistik Austria, 2024). The economic dependency on tourism generally increases with increasing distance from the economic centres, meaning that in remote areas tourism is often the main, if not the only source, of income (Steiger & Stötter, 2013). Table 15. Socio-economic data for Tyrol, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) Population density (per km2) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Tyrol (2022) 61.4 43.1 +9.4 45,600 77.8 19.2 EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 21.6 5.1.2. Governance framework In Austria, legislation and enforcement competencies are shared among the national government and the federal states. As one of the nine federal states, Tyrol can therefore enact and enforce laws within its areas of responsibility, which include, among others, building law and housing subsidies, spatial planning, nature and landscape protection, and tourism (Parlament Österreich, n.d.). Currently, there is no binding legal framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Austria, as the “Austrian Climate Change Act”, which set out emission ceilings for different sectors and defined corresponding mitigation measures, has not been updated for the years after 20208/27/2024 2:21:00 PM. 5.1.3. Identity and self-image “Seen from above, Tyrol resembles a sea of mountain peaks. They spread out in all shapes and facets, some rugged and rocky, others snow-covered or gentle and wooded right to the top. With their versatility, they give Tirol a striking face and at the same time make the country a radiant whole.” (Tirol Werbung, n.d.-b, translation by the authors) Tyrol’s diverse alpine landscape and image of unspoilt nature is central to the region’s identity and self-image, as well as for tourism, as emphasised in the interviews: “in Tyrol everything revolves around the mountains. The economy is based on them, the people are characterized by them” (TI7, translation by the authors). Tourism is referred to be the main livelihood for the region (TI2). Although the regional population is described as inwardoriented, tourism is perceived to be strongly outward-oriented (TI1a; TI6). In general, the economy plays a central role for Tyrol’s self-image, positioning itself as a major “business location” and a “region with high innovative strength” (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2021, p. 12, translation by the authors). In this context, the climate crisis is seen as an opportunity to “strengthen Tyrol as a place to live and to do business in the long-term” and to “develop it into the most sustainable and climate-friendly tourism region in the Alps” (ibid. 2021, p. 46, translation by the authors). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 98 5.2. Systemic climate risks The most important factors determining the directionality and design of CCA are concrete regional climate hazards and consequent systemic risks. This chapter overviews the main climate risks and relevant climate impact chains, pointing to the challenges for regional adaptation. 5.2.1. Main climate hazards and intermediate impacts Temperature increase Since 1900, the temperature in the European Alps has risen by up to 2°C, particularly in high elevations, which is roughly three times higher than the global average. In the Austrian Alps, average temperature change predictions are 0.8–1.2°C (low/high emission scenarios) in the 2030s, 1.6–2.6°C in the 2050s, and 2.8–4.2°C in the 2080s (Steiger & Stötter, 2013). This warming causes a shift in the zero-degree line and the snow line, along with changes in the timing and duration of seasons, collectively affecting the distribution of adapted plant and animal species in mountain ecosystems (Hock et al., 2022). Albedo lowering (i.e. the reduction of bright surfaces reflecting the sunlight) has led to a decrease in snow depth and a significant increase in the melting of snow and ice. There is an expected reduction of 20-40% in seasonal snow amount and an increase in sunshine duration throughout the year (Schneider, 2014). Changes in species distribution are also occurring as temperatures rise, prompting some species to move to higher altitudes to find cooler climates. This migration leads to changes in the composition of plant and animal communities at different altitude levels within the Alps. Alpine plant species, adapted to cold and harsh conditions, face threats from changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, which may lead to their decline or disappearance from the Alps. Additionally, the warming climate increases the risk of invasive species, as non-native animals and plants that were once restricted to lower latitudes can now thrive in the Alps, outcompeting native species and reducing biodiversity. Mountain animals, such as hares, mountain goats, and ibex, are also at risk due to changes in temperature and snow cover, which can affect the availability of food and habitat. These changes can also impact migration and hibernation times, with cascading effects on ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems, crucial for many species' survival in the Alps, are also affected by rising water temperatures, which reduce oxygen levels available to fish and other aquatic organisms. Changes in snowmelt patterns alter the timing and amount of water available to these ecosystems (Corradini et al., n.d.; Kotlarski et al., 2023). Forests, especially those with a high population of spruce — a common tree used for economic purposes — are highly affected by heat and tend to become more vulnerable to storm damage or destruction and to the bark beetle. This vulnerability may cause cascading effects, as many forests have a protective value (Corradini et al., n.d.). These changes are not solely due to rising temperatures but also include alterations in precipitation patterns, global radiation, humidity, and extremes in temperature and precipitation. Such shifts are expected to result in drastic reductions in snow cover, particularly below 1500–2000 meters, melting of glaciers and permafrost, and an increase in the frequency of natural hazards like floods, droughts, debris flows, landslides, and rockfalls (Oedl-Wieser, 2017). Precipitation By the end of the 21st century, climate change under the high emission scenario A1B is projected to significantly impact the Austrian Alps, with winter precipitation increasing by 10% and summer precipitation decreasing by over 20% compared to 1970–2000 levels. This shift will lead to more intense and irregular rainfall, increased rain-on-snow events, and a higher frequency of rapid snowmelt, exacerbating the risks of floods and landslides. Rising D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 99 temperatures, causing the snowline to ascend by approximately 150 meters per degree Celsius, will diminish snow cover that is crucial for winter sports tourism. Consequently, the increased reliance on artificial snowmaking, which demands substantial water and electricity, will further strain water resources and potentially ignite conflicts over water and energy use (Fuchs et al., 2022; Kotlarski et al., 2023; Schneider, 2014). Melting of glaciers and permafrost Between 65% and 95% of the European glaciers will be lost by the end of the 21. century. Most of Austria's glaciers are below 3200m, which is the category experiencing the main ice loss until 2050. Some glaciers have already lost 85% of their volume since the 1960s (Oedl-Wieser, 2017). The retreat of glaciers and permafrost is causing an increase in natural processes like rock falls, landslides, icefalls, and mudslides, which pose a danger to people and infrastructure. Protective measures and securing infrastructure in areas like settlements, traffic routes, and ski slopes are becoming more costly. Those who venture outside secured areas face an increased safety risk. In the case of permafrost, predicting natural hazards is more complex as it is not directly visible. Thawing of permafrost causes the terrain to sink, making slopes and ridges unstable, which can lead to more frequent rockfalls and rockslides. The increase in loose rock also increases the sediment load in streams and rivers, which can trigger mudslides during heavy rainfall. Additionally, glacier melt can exacerbate flooding, especially during summer thunderstorms when precipitation quickly reaches the runoff. Climate change has significant effects on tourism, especially in Alpine regions. The retreat of glaciers poses challenges for glacier ski resorts, with shrinking glaciers narrowing or interrupting existing ski slopes. The maintenance of ski operations requires ongoing technical adaptation to protect the infrastructure on the glaciers. The reduction of snowfall in winters has led to an increase in demand for glacier ski areas and high-altitude resorts. The tourism industry in valleys dependent on glaciers is threatened, while the attractiveness of alpine glaciers for tourism is diminished. Other activities like hiking and mountain biking, as well as associated infrastructure such as climbing routes and mountain huts, are negatively impacted by glacier retreat. Additionally, the navigability of alpine rivers with kayaks and rafts is affected by low water levels during summer (Stangl et al., 2022). Extreme weather events As a result of precipitation and temperature changes, as well as changing wind, and humidity, extreme weather events will accumulate and intensify, resulting in increasing danger to life but also to infrastructure, businesses, systems, transport infrastructure and buildings. Floods, debris flows, avalanches etc. can lead to enormous costs for reconstruction and damage (TransAlp, 2022). Urban heat islands Urban heat islands refer to the phenomenon where the city is warmer on average over the year and at night than the surrounding area. Periods of heat lead to an impairment of human health and rising mortality. Vulnerable population groups, especially children, elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions are particularly affected. Negative effects also directly correlate with insecurities in the housing sector and the distribution of resources and access to blue and green infrastructure. Indirect effects on health result from the increase in indigenous and new disease vectors (mosquitoes, bugs, ticks) and new plants with high allergenicity such as ragweed (Hohenwallner-Ries et al., 2020). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 100 5.2.2. Climate Impact Chains We developed two Climate Impact Chains. Given that extreme weather events and winter tourism are directly interrelated and primarily rural in nature, they were addressed separately from the heat aspect, which is predominantly urban and building focused. While these aspects are not entirely separable and must be considered together, separating them into two distinct graphics enhances comprehension and facilitates a better understanding of the risks involved. For tourism, the relevant climate hazards and, therefore, the focus in this systemic risk assessment are the increase in temperature, the change in precipitation patterns, extreme weather events such as storms, and natural hazards/disasters. The latter present direct risks, endangering people and buildings with potentially severe consequences for the region. The increase in rain-on-snow events and the thawing of permafrost and glaciers consequently lead to more natural hazards of gravitational and hydrological processes, such as floods, rockfalls, landslides, and debris flows, further endangering people and structures and leading to immense financial and emotional loss. This risk is exacerbated by inadequate hazard zone planning and planning mistakes made in the past (Corradini et al., n.d.; Kotlarski et al., 2023; TI9). The changes in precipitation patterns, coupled with rising temperatures, result in an upward shift of the snow and zero-degree lines and earlier snowmelt. This, in turn, increases water and electricity demand for snowmaking, as the tourism sector in Tyrol heavily relies on skiing and winter sports. Ski resorts at lower altitudes will particularly struggle with snow reliability, threatening their viability. Heat waves, increased solar radiation, rising temperatures, decreased precipitation and seasonal shifts will create more urban heat islands, significantly affecting the population and infrastructure. In Innsbruck and the Inn Valley (Inntal), the frequency of hot days exceeding 30 degrees and nights above 20 degrees will increase, leading to severe health consequences due to heat stress. Urban infrastructures and electricity as well as water demand will rise and potentially lead to high (maintenance) costs. Vulnerable populations living or working in dense inner-city areas lacking green and blue infrastructure and living in poorly insulated housing will be particularly affected (Gau, 2024; Hohenwallner-Ries et al., 2020). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 101 Figure 27. Tyrol IC for tourism (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology People doing recreational winter activities /winter sports Municipalities in touristic regions Agriculture Forests Alpine ecosystems like glaciers, permafrost, high elevated plants, animals etc. Sports, leisure and touristic infrastructure: ski resorts, hiking trails Energy and water infrastructure Transportation infrastructure Environmental sensitive ecosystems Spruce forests (esp. when low elevated) Buildings / Infrastructure in hazard zones Population living in hazard zones Workers dependent on the tourism industry Tourism dependent services / infrastructures Technical snow dependent on low temperatures Ski resorts at low altitude (under 1500m) Local economies depending on winter tourism / winter sport activities Lack of expertise on climate sensitive tourism / planning Lack of long term oriented legally binding planning strategies Difficulty accepting that old ways of doing things no longer work / suffice (population and politics) Adaptation is not explicitely embedded in political strategies and funding programms Power imbalance within decision making processes Specific aesthetic requirements Emotional connection to snow and the connected way of life Interests of cable car lobby outweight political will for climate protection Lack of diverse forests adapted to climate change Commercial and Residential Buildings Increase in storm events Extreme weather events / natural hazards Change in precipitation patterns Rising temperature Increase of neophytes Drought Forest fires Destruction of protective forests Loss of sensitive ecosystems Loss of biodiversity Increased risk for accidents, injuries Damage to buildings and infrastructure Financial loss; loss of jobs, shift of livelihoods, reputa - tion damage from reduced visitor numbers, damage to infrastructure, increased costs for protective infrastructure / maintenance Outmigration of local population in overtouristic areas Impacts on mental health related to loss of livelihoods and community displacement Overgrowth of pastures Thawing of permafrost Melting of glaciers Increase in occurrence of insects, pests, esp. bark beetle Increase of rain on snow events Increase of wet snow avalanches Increase of gravitational mass movements: Rockfall / Landslides / Debris flows Decrease in snow reliability Upward shift of snow and zero degree line Shift of seasons, earlier snowmelt Increasing erosion Generalists are spreading to higher altitudes and drive out specialists (fauna and flora) Fast snow runoff Flooding Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 102 Figure 28. Tyrol IC for heat (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Outdoor workers Urban vegetation Residents in densely build neighbourhoods with insufficient green and blue infrastructure/ wind corridors Industrial Areas Transportation infrastructure Heavily sealed / dense areas People living in poorly insulated housing without access to air conditioning Population with limited access to resources Elderly / children / people with pre-existing health conditions People working / studying / going to school in uninsulated houses Areas with no or insufficient green and blue infrastructure Lack of municipal intervention in (semi)public spaces (ownership structures Lack of long term oriented legally binding planning strategies Lack of expertise concerning climate adaptive urban planning Residents with limited access to green space Lack of legally binding requirements in spacial planning and building regulations Poorly insulated housing Poorly insulated social infrastructure / commercial buildings Heat waves Increased solar radiation Shift of seasons Decrease in precipitation Rising temperature Urban Heat islands Infrastructure strain and higher maintenance costs Intensification of social inequality Health impacts because of heat stress on population (Increased risk of heat stroke, affected mental health, higher mortality) High energy demand and consumption for cooling leading to potential strain on power grids / high costs Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Risk Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 103 5.3. Regional CCA governance CCA activities should be well-embedded in the strategic objectives of a region and strike a balance between stakeholder inclusion and leadership. Accordingly, understanding the strategy framework and stakeholder landscape of regional CCA governance is important. This chapter identifies key regional CCA-related strategies, how CC and its consequences are problematized therein and how certain adaptation challenges are prioritized. It highlights the prevailing understanding of CCA and the emphasized approaches for tackling it, as well as the most important regional stakeholder groups, which is important for the design and implementation of concrete adaptation activities. 5.3.1. Strategy framework Austria issued its first “Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change” in 2012, which was updated in 2017 and 2024. The newest version serves as the current strategic framework for climate change adaptation, in line with international and strategic frameworks such as the Paris Agreement (2015), the United Nations Agenda 2030 (2015), the European Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (2013[2021]) and the EUs Green Deal (2019) but is legally not binding. It is comprised of two documents, the first one providing the context of climate change adaptation and introducing its strategic considerations and the action plan including recommendations for action for different sectors (BMK, 2024a, 2024b). Figure 29. Overview of CCA-relevant strategies for Tyrol (TU Wien, 2024) In response to the national impetus of the first climate change adaptation strategy, Tyrol published its first “Climate Protection and Climate Change Adaptation Strategy” in 2014, bringing these two topics together for the first time. Its main objective was to enhance awareness of the multifaceted nature of climate change adaptation and to underscore the conceptual distinction between climate protection and climate change adaptation (TI1b). The follow-up “Sustainability and Climate Strategy”, adopted by the Tyrolian government in 2021, is no longer specifically D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 104 dedicated to climate change adaptation, but instead approaches sustainable development, climate change mitigation and adaptation as interlinked. It is accompanied by an action plan for a three-year period, breaking the strategic objectives down into implementation measures. The current action plan, focusing on the years 2022-2024, was adopted by the provincial government in 2022 (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2021, 2022). The attempt to integrate sustainability, climate protection and adaptation efforts into a single document has resulted in a loss in depth and quality (TI1b). The current strategic framework is described as an “absolute minimum” (TI3) and as “negligent” (TI1b) as it is not based on a prior vulnerability analysis: “Adaptation to climate change is not mandatory in Tyrol. It’s so rudimentary that you can’t really call it adaptation” (TI4, translation by the authors). However, the “Sustainability and Climate Strategy” provides guidance and funding opportunities for regional adaptation actions (ibid.). Additionally, the nine KLAR! Regions (cf. chapter 5.4) have been or are currently developing regional adaptation concepts (TVDWS). Also, the city of Innsbruck has developed a local adaptation strategy (2020). 5.3.2. Problem background and prioritized challenges The key challenges addressed in Tyrol throughout the regional strategic documents are strongly focused on the economic damage due to climate change on the one hand, and the economic potential of adaptation measures on the other hand. In the expert interviews and the VDWS, however, social and cultural challenges of climate change adaptation were also raised. Table 16. Main CCA challenges for Tyrol Climate change as a threat to nature and the Alpine identity Tyrol’s self-image and identity is strongly based on its mountainous landscapes. These are increasingly endangered by the effects of climate change, such as increasing natural disasters, the thawing of permafrost and glaciers: “People feel the glacier retreat, it moves people, they identify with it, it's part of the Alpine identity" (TI5, translation by the authors). Economic damage & vulnerable local economies Tyrol is facing increasing damage and adaptation costs due to climate change. These economic impacts of climate change are an important aspect of regional climate change adaptation (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2021; TI6; TI8). As the regional “cash cow” (TI2), winter tourism is particularly economically vulnerable to climate change (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2021; TI8). As the risk assessment has shown, due to the upward shift of the snow and zero-degree lines and earlier snowmelt, ski resorts struggle with snow reliability and are confronted with increasing water and electricity demand for artificial snowmaking – especially at lower to medium altitudes up to 1.500m (TI6). It is therefore becoming increasingly expensive to uphold winter tourism in the face of changing climatic conditions. Additionally, tourism in Tyrol is much centred on the idea of unspoilt nature, which is increasingly threatened by the lack of snow: “just a band of snow and green all around (…) that’s not how Tyrol can be advertised” (TI8, translation by the authors). Winter tourism contributes significantly to regional value creation and is an important D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 111 Figure 31. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Tyrol 5.5.3. Regional transformative capacities Overcoming a focus on mere adaptation responses towards more long-term transformative change, the concept of transformative regional capacities offers a perspective on the wider interplay, forming a more systemic perspective. The last step of the regional CCA analysis aimed at the identification of regional strengths and transformative capacities by assessing regional/local implementation barriers and existing regional capacities. Building on the analysis results and workshop responses (conducted in June 2024), transformative regional capacities were determined. The framework proposed by Wolfram’s (2016) of ten adaptive capacities addresses organisational visions, work culture, structures, skills, human and material resources, but also community participation, relations, networks and institutions, and the understanding of existing systems. For the regional climate change analysis, the most relevant transformative capacities were identified to guide adaptation action, particularly with regards to the regional Demo Activities (DAs). Table 17. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Tyrol System awareness & memory High-level political actors are aware of the necessity of adaptation, but there is a lack of ambitions adaptation policies and action. Ambitions to adapt to climate change are described as sectorand person-specific and as lacking systemic thinking (TVDWS). A clear political commitment is called for, especially among the federal and state governments: “Politicians and interest groups must take the lead” (ibid.). Politicians, however, are relying on the local level and civil society to become active through D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 112 awareness-raising measures. Awareness of traditional natural climate hazards as rockfall or flooding is high, but is lagging in other adaptation domains, such as heat. Here, having a regional contact person to push for adaptation action as well as knowledge transfer and skill development among local actors, like the “KLAR!”- managers, is a major capacity that should be expanded. Foresight The “Sustainability and Climate Strategy” serves as the regional informal strategic framework for climate change adaptation. However, climate change adaptation is only discussed superficially. The approach to adaptation remains predominantly reactive; adaptation measures are primarily driven by concern and thus hinder future-oriented structural change. In this respect, a clear and effectively communicated vision of climate change adaptation for Tyrol is needed, in order to be able to drive adaptation action on a local and regional scale. Forward-looking adaptation should thereby be seen as an opportunity to pro-actively shape transformation processes and to position Tyrol as a model region for foresighted adaptation (TVDWS). Practical Implementation Tyrol is experienced with implementing innovative projects and practices, but there is no fundamental structural change. The main barrier to practical implementation is seen in the financing of adaptation actions (TVDWS). To increase Tyrol’s capacity in this regard, financial resources should be provided to the communities for more low-threshold experimentation, scaling-up of successful adaptation actions should be encouraged and key actors should be connected (TVDWS). 5.5.4. Concrete advice for the DA and beyond Initiate a holistic and inclusive discussion on alternative development paths: in the past, tourism development has tended to be rather outwards-oriented. A holistic and inclusive discussion of potential future development paths that go beyond the preservation of the status-quo and considers decreasing the economic dependence on tourism is needed and should be taken into account when participatorily developing transformation pathways for tourism. In this respect, the Demonstration Activity can help to initiate these discussions. Increase awareness for adaptation requirements of building(s): the increase in heat waves, solar radiation, rising temperatures, decreasing precipitation and shifts in seasonality leads to urban heat islands, increasing the vulnerability of the local population and challenging the built infrastructure. However, both civil society and decisionmakers are less aware of the need and suitable approaches for adapting to increased heat exposure. Simulating buildings’ vulnerability to heat, as envisioned by the DA, may therefore serve as a tool to increase awareness. Other proven means of communication should also be considered. Additionally, more profound changes in building culture should be sought within Tyrol’s formal competencies in spatial planning, such as the radical reduction of soil sealing, increased unsealing of land and expansion of green and blue infrastructure. Strengthen the local level and regional strategic framework: municipalities have a key role to play in adapting to climate change in Tyrol. The provision of the necessary resources, both financially and in the form of expertise, should therefore be encouraged. It is further advised that adaptation actions are developed and implemented in close cooperation with local stakeholders who may act as multipliers and intermediaries. At the same time, a more comprehensive and potentially binding common strategic framework for adaptation to climate change needs to be established at the regional level to ensure a coherent and coordinated approach. As a very first step, a vulnerability analysis should be conducted. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 113 Prioritise key adaptation measures: it is recommended that, both on a regional and on a local level, priority should be given to a few key adaptation measures, rather than a multitude of approaches. When further expanding the “Platform for Climate, Energy and Circularity”, this approach should be considered. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 114 6. Baseline – Valais 6.1. Regional profile Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This chapter introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and outlines the dominant self-image to sketch the normative starting point for regional CCA. In Switzerland, the average temperature has increased by 2 degrees Celsius in the last 150 years and a very similar trend was observed in the Canton of Valais. Consequently, Valais is already confronted with more dry summers, more intense precipitation, more hot days and more winters with less snow. These trends are projected to continue in the next few decades (National Centre for Climate Services, 2021). Until 2060, temperatures are projected to increase by another 2 to 3°C (compared to 1980-2010) and precipitation is projected to decrease by 5 to 25% in summer. Further, glaciers will continue to retreat, and risks of natural disasters will continue to increase (Canton du Valais, 2016). 6.1.1. Structural characteristics Overview of topographic and functional characteristics Valais is the third largest canton of Switzerland, located in the Southwest, bordering both Italy and France. It is situated in the high alpine western Alps and is traversed by the Rhone Valley, which extends from the Rhone Glacier to Lake Geneva. Valais is characterized by its great spatial diversity, encompassing touristic mountain landscapes, the multifunctional Rhone valley much used for agriculture, urban centres such as the agglomerations Sion-Sierre, Brig-Visp-Naters, Monthey-Aigle and Martigny and subcentres such as Leuk, Saint-Maurice and Gampel-Steg, as well as natural and cultural landscapes (Canton du Valais, 2014; Kanton Wallis, 2022a). The elevation within the Canton ranges from less than 400m above sea level to its highest point at 4,600m (Canton du Valais, 2023). The Canton of Valais covers an area of 5,225km2. Most of its land is unproductive land, constituting for 53% of the total area, followed by forested area at 24% and agricultural land at 19%. Settlement and urban areas only account for 3,5% of its total area (Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS), 2019). Most of the arable land are natural pastures, followed by vineyards and orchards (Kanton Wallis, 2022a). Overview of ecosystem and environmental characteristics The region is often described as the water tower of Europe. However, surrounded by the Valais Alps in the South and Bernese Alps in the North, which catch a lot of the precipitation, it is also one of the driest regions in Switzerland, as measured by mean annual precipitation. Some of the driest valleys receive less than 600mm of precipitation a year, while the surrounding mountains may receive up to 3,700mm of precipitation (Paulsson & Liechti, 2013). Contrary to other regions in Switzerland, precipitation is lower in the summer than in winter. Dry periods are common, as variability of precipitation over the years is high. In the Val de Bagnes, composed of two communes, Bagnes and Vollèges, river flow of the Dranse river is greatly influenced by the Mauvoisin dam in the upper valley, which has greatly reduced the flow. Despite high availability of water, the supply of drinking water has been a source of concern (Aubin, 2011). To cope with the historic lack of precipitation and water shortage in the summer, inhabitants of the region have developed an irrigation system that has been in use for hundreds of years. A network of small water channels, sometimes guided by wooden plates (called ‘Suonen’, or ‘bisses’ in French). Water is channeled from D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 115 higher altitudes, via meadows and fields, to lower altitudes, also for the irrigation of fruit trees or vineyards. The water is rerouted from streams that are fed by glacier and melt water, which means they can provide water throughout summer and autumn, the seasons with the lowest precipitation. This system is also a part of what makes the cultural landscape of Valais so unique. The water use through these traditional channels is regulated through cooperatives, where members have the right of using the water but also the obligation to contribute to their maintenance. There has been a decline in this traditional way of conducting agriculture, which has often been conducted next to a main income. This leads to a loss in traditional handicrafts and knowledge, as well as cultural landscape of the region (Achermann & Liechti, 2012). In addition, they contribute to a historical culture of collaboratively managing the commons in the region (VI1). Figure 32. Map of Valais (TU Wien, 2024) Socio-economic profile Valais is a multi-lingual region. French is the main language in two thirds of the Canton, followed by German (25%), Italian (5%) and English (4%) (Bundesamt für Statistik, 2019). Valais’ population amounts to 353,209 inhabitants (Eurostat, 2022), of which 80% live in urban areas (Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS), 2019). Annual population growth is comparatively high with +11.5 per 1,000 inhabitants (Eurostat, 2022). Population density lies at 68.4 persons per km2 (Eurostat, 2022). The average age of permanent residents was estimated at 43.5 years (Bundesamt für Statistik, 2022), whereas the estimated rate for inhabitants in the Lake Geneva region in risk of poverty or social exclusion was estimated at 18.8% (Eurostat, 2022) – a slightly lower number in comparison with other regions. In the Lake Geneva D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 116 region (NUTS 2), where Valais is located, the employment rate for 15to 64-year-olds was estimated at 78.8%, composed by a male employment rate of 82.4% and a female employment rate of 74.7% (Eurostat, 2022). In 2021, the regional GDP of Valais was € 18,711.57 million which amounts to 2.41% of the national GDP (Eurostat, 2022). Valais’ Purchasing Power per capital is the highest of all MountResilience regions with € 46,300 per inhabitant (in 2019). Table 18. Socio-economic data for Valais, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) Population density (per km2) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Valais (2022) 68.4 43.5 +11.5 46,300 (2019) 78.8* 18.8* EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 21.6 *ref. Région lémanique The most important sector of the economy in terms of gross value added in Valais is the industrial sector with the following business segments (in descending order): mining (and quarrying); real estate and housing and “trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles” (Bundesamt für Statistik, 2024). Industry amounts to a total of 25% of the cantonal gross value added and 20,000 jobs depend on this sector. However, in terms of employment, the tourism sector represents the largest employer with 24,100 jobs and accounts for 15% of total value added (Regionsund Wirtschaftszentrum Oberwallis, n.d.). Water is a key resource for numerous sectors, such as (winter-)tourism, industry, agriculture and private households. As tourism is concerned, the use of artificial snow has become common to cope with decreasing snowfall, or just to always ensure high quality slopes. To supply the water, artificial reservoirs and an underground piping system had to be dug up, which has come with different environmental costs (Crémel & de Laage, 2023). Peaks in water use in the ski-resort of Verbier could be observed especially towards the end of the year and in February, but also between mid-July and mid-August (presumably high season for summer tourism). With the decline of traditional agriculture and an increase in commercial irrigation, agriculture has also been taking up more water resources (Paulsson & Liechti, 2013). Hydropower plays a big role in the region’s economy, as Valais produces nearly 30% of Switzerland’s hydropower. Dams are often situated near irrigated areas, villages and towns, and some are also used for multiple purposes, such as supplying water to irrigation (Flaminio & Reynard, 2023). 6.1.2. Governance framework The Canton of Valais is embedded in a multi-level governance framework characterized by federalism and direct democracy. The legislative and executive power is distributed between the Swiss confederation, the 26 cantons and more than 2,000 communes, while judicial power remains with the confederation and the cantons. The cantons have their own constitutions, parliaments, governments and courts, but the communes are conceded the highest possible degree of autonomy (Schweizer Eidgenossenschaft, 2024). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 117 There are different responsibilities and competences depending on the policy area. This can be seen very clearly in the example of dealing with water as a resource and infrastructure. The constitution stipulates that the cantons are competent in this area, although the communes have sovereignty over water supply and disposal. This will be elaborated in chapter 6.3. 6.1.3. Identity and self-image Valais positions itself as a major tourist destination characterized by its diverse landscape (Valais/Wallis Promotion, 2024). This self-image was also emphasized in the interviews, in which Valais was described as “well-known as a touristic destination” (VI6) and as “offering both, winter sports in its mountainous parts and spring-like climate in its vineyards in the Rhone valley” (VI3). Valais’ diverse landscape not only plays an important role for tourism and therefore for the regional economy but is also central to the region’s identity (VI4; VI5; VI6). However, its touristic character with “famous resorts” (VI1) has created the image of Valais as a canton that “is not very well known to takes care of its resources” (VI6). This image is aimed to be reversed (VI6). Another characteristic of the Canton is seen in its bilingualism (VI3; VI6). Its population is described as traditional and sometimes skeptical of change (VI3). Figure 33. Touristic advertisement of Valais (Source: Valais/Wallis Promotion, 2024) 6.2. Systemic climate risks The most important factors determining the directionality and design of CCA are concrete regional climate hazards and consequent systemic risks. This chapter overviews the main climate risks and relevant climate impact chains, pointing to the challenges for regional adaptation. 6.2.1. Main climate hazards and intermediate impacts Temperature In summer, in a low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) temperatures will increase by 2°C by mid-century and then remain stable towards the end of the century (2°C by 2085). However, in a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) temperatures would rise 4°C by 2060 and 6°C by 2085. In winter, temperatures will increase by less than 1°C by mid-century and then remain stable towards the end of the century (1°C by 2085) in a low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6). In a high D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 118 emissions-scenario (RCP8.5), temperatures are set to rise by up to around 2°C by 2060 and up to 4°C by 2085. The heat stress on the population, however, remains very low until the end of the century, even under the worst-case scenario, due to existing sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Navarro et al., 2022). While the risk of wildfire is currently considered very low, it would remain so under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) but rise to a medium risk under a worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. Precipitation and glaciers Precipitation is likely to decrease in summer under the worst-case scenario and stay the same under a low emissions scenario (National Centre for Climate Services, 2021). This adds to summers that are already drier than in the rest of the country. Even if precipitation should not significantly decrease, due to the higher temperatures, the risk of drought or dry periods will increase due to higher evapotranspiration (Canton du Valais, 2016). Yet the overall drought risk (considering vulnerabilities, exposure, and adaptive capacity) remains very low in all emission scenarios (Navarro et al., 2022). Especially in regions of medium altitude (ca. 1000-2000m a.s.l.) precipitation will increasingly fall in form of rain rather than snow. Even in high altitudes (above 2000m a.s.l.), which represent a large part of the Canton’s surface area (VI2), rain will increase by 10-20% to snow. Per degree of warming, the snow line will move up by 150-200m, which means that by the end of the century it might rise by 500m. Precipitation will become more intense in spring and autumn, with dry periods in summer (Canton du Valais, 2016). With the earlier onset of snowmelt and glacier melting each year, the peak of discharge in the river will come earlier in the summer (May/June), which means there will be less water available later in the year, when agricultural irrigation still requires a substantial amount of water (VI2). In the Swiss Alps, snow cover duration has shortened in the period from 1970 to 2015, with the snow season being on average 12 days shorter than in 1970. This decrease is more substantial in lower altitudes and less at high altitudes (Mourey et al., 2022). With 80% of the total ice volume, the majority of Swiss glaciers can be found in Valais (Canton du Valais, 2016). Giétro, Breney and Otemma glaciers have lost respectively 43%, 61% and 63% of their mass between 1850 and 2009 (Mourey et al., 2022). It is likely that by the end of the century, more than two thirds of the glaciers in Valais will have melted. Some glaciers will have completely vanished, others will remain but very small. For example, for Aletsch glacier, the surface will likely reduce by 70% and the volume by 90% by the end of the century (Paulsson & Liechti, 2013). Due to the glaciers melting, water availability will not follow a linear path throughout the 21st century. Until 2040 a slight increase in discharge in general is expected due to melt water from the accelerated melting of glaciers. In addition, the seasonal distribution will also change. In winter, a slight increase is expected due to increased rain instead of snow. The peak in discharge in rivers will be in May instead of in June. In the second part of the century, the total amount of available water will decrease as summer precipitation will decrease even more and glaciers will have almost vanished, thus reducing the flow of melt water (Schneider et al., 2016). The risk of river floods on population and on infrastructure therefore will decrease by the end of the century in all emissions scenarios (Navarro et al., 2022) Implications for the availability of water and societal development Despite their projected decline, water volumes are sufficient for today’s and for future demand, at least until 2050 (or as long as there is still meltwater from the glaciers). However, the challenge will be the seasonal variability and seasonal shortages. They key will be a successful water management strategy to prevent conflict or shortages in dry periods (Schneider et al., 2016). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 119 6.2.2. Climate Impact Chain This climate impact chain deals with the risk of water scarcity and conflicts around water use. The three relevant climate hazards are the increase in temperature, the decrease in precipitation in summer and the change in snowmelt and precipitation patterns. Together, these hazards lead to an upward moving snowline, glaciers melting and higher evapotranspiration. This will lead to impacts such as temporary water scarcity, as described above, as well as natural disasters, such as landslides, rockfall or floods. Due to the strong glacier-melting projected for the first half of the century, there is higher likelihood of floods. In addition, it might lead to temporary higher water availability, especially in spring and early summer, however, this will only be seasonal and in the later part of the century water will become scarce again. Water needs are projected to rise in a business-as-usual scenario, especially in urban areas and in the keeping of livestock (Milano & Reynard, 2022). There are several elements of the regional system that are exposed to these changes. Hydropower production requires the largest amount of water. Agriculture requires water especially when precipitation is lowest and water most scarce in the region, during summer and autumn. This includes both, commercial agriculture and small scale and traditional farming. The situation will be exacerbated by the fact that an earlier onset of the snowmelt will lead to an earlier peak in water availability in rivers, removed from the peak of water needs in agriculture later in the summer. Residential areas require water, too. Depending on the commune, some have separate systems for drinking water and water for irrigation, while in others drinking water is used for all purposes (Schneider et al., 2016). Finally, tourism also requires large amounts of water, especially for snowmaking for winter sports. Economic vulnerabilities stem from the fact that the two most important industries in the region, hydropower and tourism, strongly depend on the availability of water. The economic importance of skiing and winter tourism makes the region vulnerable as this income is highly dependent on the right weather conditions and on the availability and quality of snow. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 120 Figure 34. Valais IC for water (ZSI, 2024) | cf. chapter 11.2 for IC methodology Natural ecosystems / biodiversity Residential areas Hydropower production Renewable energy storage through pumped storage Transportation infrastructure Declining use of the traditional irrigation system, dependence on more commercial irrigation Economic importance of tourism sector, esp. skiing and golf that both have high water requirements Dependence on hydropower production Traditional agricultural system with small scale farmers Valais is traditionally dry due to its location between major mountain chains Lack of formalized collaboration of stakeholders for water management Principle of subsidiarity and high autonomy of municipalities: strength and challenge Lack of public access to data on water use and sectoral water needs Formal direct democratic involvement of population & society considered a main agent of change Foresight Strategies for water management and for sector-specific adaptation requirements Agriculture (traditional small scale and large scale) Regional economy Tourism, esp. skiing sector Change in precipitation patterns Rising temperature Higher evapotranspiration Temporary water scarcity Watertable change (ground water) Higher flood risk until mid-century Water shortage by end of century Landslides, rockfall, flooding Glaciers melting Permafrost melting Earlier and faster snowmelt Snowline moving upwards Social and economic conflicts around water use between agriculture, tourism, hydropower, residential areas etc. Lower income from tourism industry, especially skiing Risk to safety of population, damage to buildings and infrastructure Climate conditions and how they will change in the future Direct and intermediary consequences of hazards on the ecosystem. A product of sensitivity (the degree to which exposed entities could be affected) and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity :the ability of people , sectors, or systems to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. The presence of ecosystems, peoples, livelihoods etc. in places where they could be affected. Hazard Hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability Exposure Exposure Impact Impact Risk Risk k Overall consequences to the region of the combination of all indicators. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 127 6.4.1. Learnings These projects demonstrate Valais' experience in engaging with civil society actors, promoting private initiatives and, consequently, strengthening civic engagement and inclusive governance of climate change adaptation at the local level. Further, the use of playful, technological awareness-raising approaches for enacting individual behavioural change regarding resource-use (as also envisioned by the Demonstration Activity) has been tested for driving adaptation action. Additionally, Valais is experienced in fostering and promoting innovative approaches and therefore practical implementation of projects that address water management challenges. 6.5. Transformative pathways The overview of regional structure, systemic climate risks and existing CCA governance, coupled with knowledge on the planned DA, allow a final assessment of the most relevant barriers and opportunities for transformative CCA in the region, as well as pointing to the key transformative capacities that need to be utilized or developed further. To this end, a validation workshop was held in the region to discuss barriers, opportunities and key transformative capacities with knowledgeable actors. This chapter elaborates on these aspects and concludes by providing concrete advice for transformative CCA in conjunction with the fields of action of the respective DA and beyond to facilitate transformative regional CCA. 6.5.1. Barriers and windows of opportunity for CCA The main barriers to climate change adaptation are seen in changing habits: “there are still people, who have difficulty changing their habits because they have always done it this way.” (VI5) This is regarded as particularly challenging for adaptation action because the effects of climate change are not always immediately visible, but changes occur gradually (VI3). In this regard, changes in communication may be an important lever for driving adaptation action. First, the use of playful approaches as for the smart meter device for measuring water and energy consumption have proven to be successful for raising awareness and sensibilization among the population (VI3). Second, in line with the emphasis on the economic risks of climate change in both the cantonal documents and the interviews, stressing the economic costs of inaction can be a major driver for adaptation action (VI1; VI3). Third, emphasizing the benefits and opportunities of adapting over non-adaption (as in the regional strategy, where the costs of inaction are addressed) and planning for quick wins and direct rewards to counter the lacking foresight associated with adaptation actions has the potential to be an impactful strategy (VI6). 6.5.2. Regional validation workshop The regional validation workshop aimed at presenting, critically discussing, and further developing initial hypotheses and interim findings on transformative adaptation with knowledgeable regional actors. The workshop hence consisted of two parts: In a first session, regional CCA measures, challenges and opportunities deriving from the previous analysis were presented and subsequently debated in smaller groups as well as in the plenum. In the second session, regional transformative capacities that were identified as relevant by the research team were introduced and put up for discussion. This gave participants the opportunity to share feedback, give concrete examples stemming from their own experience or bring in new ideas for effective CCA governance. The workshop focused on the topics of governance, leadership and climate change adaptation strategies in Valais. In terms of governance, participants highlighted the advantages and disadvantages inherent to a highly democratic society. On the one hand, public engagement and debate is encouraged. On the other hand, reaching consensus is a time-consuming process that is further slowed down by climate skeptics. Therefore, a key level for effective CCA was seen in understanding the “factors to reach engagement and consensus among significant actors” (VVDWS). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 128 The Canton was mentioned as having a particular responsibility to provide the necessary framework conditions. However, it was also emphasised that the national, cantonal and local level must collaborate “driven by a common purpose” (VVDWS) in a manner that avoids an increase in administrative workload. In this context, reference was made to the coordinating function that leadership must fulfil. It was emphasised that positive images and visions of the future are needed to promote adaptation to climate change. Figure 37. Accompanying Miro Board from VDWS in Valais The workshop was conducted in an online format on June 13, 2024, from 14:00 to 16:00 (EEST) with an audience of 14 participants. The online tool Miro was used to facilitate visualization of discussion points. 6.5.3. Regional transformative capacities Overcoming a focus on mere adaptation responses towards more long-term transformative change, the concept of transformative regional capacities offers a perspective on the wider interplay, forming a more systemic perspective. The last step of the regional CCA analysis aimed at the identification of regional strengths and transformative capacities by assessing regional/local implementation barriers and existing regional capacities. Building on the analysis results and workshop responses (conducted in June 2024), transformative regional capacities were determined. The framework proposed by Wolfram’s (2016) of ten adaptive capacities addresses organisational visions, work culture, structures, skills, human and material resources, but also community participation, relations, networks and institutions, and the understanding of existing systems. For the regional climate change analysis, the most relevant transformative capacities were identified to guide adaptation action, particularly with regards to the regional Demo Activities (DAs). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 129 Table 20. Transformative capacities for effective CCA in Valais Inclusive and multiform governance The governance structures are founded on the principles of subsidiarity and direct democracy. Within this formal framework, communes are granted significant autonomy, which makes them key actors in various domains, including CCA. When it comes to ensuring a coordinated approach to adaptation and water management, the autonomy of the communes is hence a major challenge. Similarly, due to direct democracy, population plays a crucial role. The formal direct involvement of the population in decision-making processes ensures broad approval and inclusion. However, it also entails prolonged democratic processes as exemplified by the revision of the climate legislation, both on national and cantonal level. While these legal processes contribute to governance stability, they are inherently lengthy and consequently less agile (VVDWS). Regarding integrated water management, the lack of public access to data on water use and sectoral water needs presents a major challenge (VVWDS). The introduction of a new intermediary position for the Canton, the water delegate, is expected to enhance coordination, although largely based on voluntary efforts. As far as governance models are concerned, Valais has a long tradition in the communal governance of common resources (VI1). This traditional management of resources may also open new perspectives for future governance (VVWDS). CCA Leadership Distribution Formally, there is (political) commitment to adapt to climate change with strategies implemented both on a national and on a cantonal level. However, society is considered the main agent of change. Changing the populations attitude and behaviour through awareness-raising and nudging is seen as the major lever for advancing adaptation action given the legal framework of direct democracy (VVWDS). Foresight The Climate Strategy serves as a cantonal document that, although not legally binding, formulates sector-specific adaptation requirements based on national climate scenarios. Similarly, there has long been a strategy for water management that formulates objectives and corresponding measures. However, there is a discrepancy between the strategically formulated adaptation goals and the actions undertaken. The approach to adaptation remains predominantly reactive; adaptation measures are primarily driven by concern, as evidenced in the water management sector where actions are now increasingly being taken in response to increasing water scarcity. 6.5.4. Concrete advice for the DA and beyond Utilize the services of intermediaries for inclusive water governance: with the recent appointment of a cantonal water delegate, there seems to be renewed interest in improving water governance in Valais. In this regard, the demonstration activity can benefit from this momentum. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 130 Experiment with new water governance approaches: as envisioned by the DA, novel approaches to governance are to be tested in the field of water management. The DA has the potential to explore new opportunities for intercommunal cooperation beyond the strong legal autonomy of the communes with the objective of enhancing effective water governance and purposefully bringing different actors together. Address existing knowledge and power imbalances: in terms of leadership, it appears especially important to proceed with sensitivity and to facilitate mediation between different players, given that key data on water consumption are gathered by economic actors, which is a major challenge for integrated water management. Regarding communication within the DA, it is advised to emphasize the (economic) benefits of cooperatively adapting water management to climate change. Engage a critical mass of citizens in water governance: as mentioned in the interviews, involving the local population in decisions regarding the prioritization of water-use appears crucial. Within this highly democratic governance framework, civil society plays a key role in driving adaptation and should therefore be actively engaged. Reduce water demand in general: Although Valais’ water resources are projected to be sufficient for meeting the increasing water demands, Valais is facing challenges in ensuring year-round availability. Reducing water consumption in various sectors, including agriculture, industry, tourism, but also for private use, would also contribute to the protection of the region’s ecosystem. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 131 7. Factsheet Catalonia Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This factsheet hence introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and gives and overview to key strategies that frame current regional CCA efforts. Spain is one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe to change climate, where increases in temperature and a variation of extreme rainfall and droughts critically affect future water availability, with increasingly important implications in sectors such as agriculture, livestock, forestry and tourism (UN DESA, 2021). Being subject to overexploitation, also 61% of the country’s surface water bodies and 45% of the underground water bodies are strongly affected by changing precipitation and pollution. Challenging climatic trends are also increasingly observable in Catalonia, one of the project’s replicator regions, which is particularly affected by a mixture of hazards such as floods, droughts heatwaves and wildfires. According to the Third Report on Climatic Change in Catalonia (TICCC, 2017), Catalonia will experience a temperature increase of 0.8°C this decade and an increase of 1.4°C by 2050, as well as an increase in extreme temperatures and precipitation, heat waves, tropical nights (especially in coastal and pre-coastal areas), and the duration of dry spells. Threatening local ecosystems and local resilience, these events are posing a specific need for efficient CCA measures in the region. 7.1. Structural characteristics Overview of topographic and functional characteristics The autonomous region of Catalonia is located in the northeastern corner of Spain, bordering with France and Andorra in the north, Aragon to the west, the Valencia region to the southwest and the Balearic Sea to the east. Most of its territory lies in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The region consists of the provinces Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, and Lleida (Rodriguez, 2024). The mountainous plateau of the Pyrenees separates Catalonia from France, to the west, the pre-Pyrenees and the Ebro River basin mark the border with Aragon. To the southwest the Ebro basin gives way to coastal hills separating the Catalonian province of Tarragona from the Valencian province of Castellón. The city of Barcelona, the regional capital, has a free economic zone near the port, where distribution centres are concentrated, and is an important center for the region’s tourism and events (offering conferences, exhibitions, and trade fairs). Commercially, the Catalan emphasis is on small firms (few have more than 200 employees), yet the region has increasingly adopted policies to attract major international investors to the region. Catalan economy is based on a strong services sector, tourism, but also manufacturing (automotive), industry (cork sector) and life sciences (Chemical, Pharmaceutical), however food production is its leading industry, accounting to 20% of its GDP (ICEX, 2024). The total regional, area covers about 32,091km2 and is home to 7,6 million people. Administratively, it is divided into four provinces of Tarragona, Barcelona, and Girona and Lleida, which (except of Lleida) have a Mediterranean shoreline. The low-lying Catalanides range separates the coastal plain from the Ebro River basin and the coastal industrial towns from the higher tableland, with agricultural settlements. The main rivers are the Ter, Llobregat, and Ebro River, all flowing into the Mediterranean Sea. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 132 Ecosystem and environmental characteristics Mediterranean climate prevails throughout most of the region, with hot and dry summers with rather mild, relatively rainy winters (Rodriguez, 2024). The area differs between the coastline, the hinterlands and along the Ebro Delta. The Ebro, the longest river (987km) in Spain, originates in Fontibre, flows through the gorges of Burgos, the limestones of central Ebro valley, and discharges in the Ebro Delta to the Mediterranean Sea. It is characteristic for providing the largest wetlands (320km²) in the region (JRC, n.d.). Intensive agriculture exerts severe pressure on freshwater resources of the Ebro River Basin, especially in terms of nutrient and pesticides fluxes from agricultural fields, while a combination of intense irrigation and excessive and inefficient fertilization (e.g. in maize) has led to significant water pollution in the region (JRC, n.d.). The Ebro Delta is one of the most threatened ecosystems to climate change in whole Spain with climate-induced threats to livelihoods as well as directly to the living conditions, mostly through the sea level rise water (expected 0.6-1m by the end of the century) resulting in salinization and loss of the surface with its possibilities for economic activities (Zografos, 2017, p.52f; Lomelí-Quintero, 2023). Regarding its precipitation, the mean annual rainfall varies between low 320mm per year in the semi-arid central Ebro valley, and relatively high amounts of 2000mm per year in the Pyrenees and Cantabrian mountains. Due to the surrounding mountain range, the river basin is characterised by both, a continental and semi-arid tendency (Loidi, 2017). The vegetation is made up by forests and woodlands, garrigue on limestone or on gypsum substrates, and large grasslands. However, the forests in the northern Mediterranean basin having a history of land-use fragmentation, deforestation, a general negligent forest management and, most recently, afforestation of abandoned farmland, face a particularly high risk from large fires (Selkimäki et al., 2012). Table 21. Socioeconomic data for Catalonia, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat 2022) Population density (in km2) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Catalonia (2022) 243.7 44.2 +28.6 35,000 69.9 20.4 EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 21.6 Regional socio-economic profile Catalonia’s population in 2022 amounts to 7,679,192 inhabitants (Eurostat, 2022), leading to the highest population density of 243.7 persons per km2 in comparison the other project regions. The population change lies at +28.6 persons in the year 2022 (crude rate of total population change per 1,000 per inhabitant) (Eurostat, 2022) which is by far the highest increase compared to the other regions. The median age of the population was estimated at 44.2 years (Eurostat, 2022), of those aged 15 to 64, the overall employment rate was estimated 69.9%, whereby the rate is made up by an employment rate of 72.5% of men and 65.0% of women (Eurostat, 2022). Catalonia is renowned as Spain’s industrial driving force, with accounting for around 20% of Spain’s GDP (Eurostat, 2022). Catalonia’s economy is highly diversified with the main industry branches being in chemicals and plastics, food and beverages, motor vehicles and life science (Catalonia Trade&Investment, n. d.). Catalonia's Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) per inhabitant lies at € 35,000 PPS per inhabitant (Eurostat, 2022) An estimated rate of 20.4% of Catalonia’s population are facing risk of poverty or social exclusion (Eurostat, 2022). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 133 Figure 38. Map of Catalonia (TU Wien, 2024) 7.2. Governance framework The Generalitat de Catalunya (Government of Catalonia), is the institutional system by which Catalonia is selfgoverned as an autonomous community of Spain. The government consists of the Generalitat (executive council headed by a president) and a unicameral parliament (Rodriguez, 2024). The Parliament represents the Catalan people, consists of a single chamber, is independent and passes the laws governing the community, as well as controlling the executive. It also approves the annual budget and new taxes (SOIR, 2024). At national level, the region coordinates its efforts with the Ministerio para la Transición ecológica y el reto demográfico (MITECO) (The Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge). Regional bodies for CCA policy advising, drafting and implementation are Catalan Climate Change Office and the Advisory Council for Sustainable Development of Catalonia (CADS), while also several universities (12 public/private universities) are active in research and policy recommendations. 7.3. Strategy framework for regional CCA At national level, one of the main CCA policy guiding document of Spain is the “National Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2021-2030 (MITECO, 2020)”, aiming to promote coordinated and coherent adaptation action. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 134 In accordance with its competences in matters of environmental protection and definition of public climate policies, the Government of Catalonia approved the “Catalan Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change 2013-2020 (ESCACC20, 2012)”, as the first strategic document on climate change adaptation policies in Catalonia. This strategy was lately followed by the “Catalan Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change 2021-2030 (ESCACC30, 2023)”. The strategy analyses the vulnerability of 17 areas to the risks of climate change and aims for the reduction of the vulnerability of these 17 areas is articulated through 76 operational objectives that are developed through a total of 312 measures. It also highlights actions corresponding to natural systems (forests and forestry), socioeconomic areas (agriculture and livestock) and the general territory (mountains). Further relevant strategies are “The 2030 Agenda: Transform Catalonia, improve the world (CADS, 2016)”, discussing the main challenges that need to be tackled within each of the 16 SDGs in order to successfully meet the common goals and the “Strategy of the Pyrenees Areas of action and main transformative projects (OPCC2, 2023)”, characterizing the Pyrenees regions to develop a vision for the Pyrenees that is based on transformative projects. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 135 8. Factsheet Friuli-Venezia-Giulia Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This factsheet hence introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and gives and overview to key strategies that frame current regional CCA efforts. Italy faces significant climate change related challenges, including the increase of natural risks due to drought, hydrogeological instability, floods, forest fires or coastal erosion (CMCC, 2020). In the last twenty years the higherthan-average temperatures and the intensification of extreme weather events have increased the probability of being affected by climate hazards by 9%. This trend is also observable in Friuli–Venezia Giulia, one of the project’s replicator regions, bordering Friulian Dolomites and the Upper Adriatic Sea. The region has a temperature increase of about 1°C in the last thirty years, while also changes in precipitation are increasingly affecting local livelihoods and natural environments (AcegasApsAmga & DMG-UNITS, 2014). 8.1. Structural characteristics Overview of topographic and functional characteristics Friuli–Venezia Giulia (FVG) is an autonomous Italian region of northeastern Italy, with strong devolved legislative and fiscal powers, bordering Austria to the North, Slovenia to the East, the Adriatic Sea to the South, and the Veneto region to the West. It has an area of 7,847 km2, comprising the provinces of Udine, Pordenone, Gorizia, and Trieste encompasses a population of 1.19 million people (OECD, 2023; Tikkanen, 2024). Situated in the western part of Italy, with the major towns Udine and Pordenone, the region is consisting of alpine area and a southern plain. After the Second World War, the boundaries of the region expanded to include the city of Trieste (approximately 200,000 residents), the regional capital, along with its immediate surroundings on the Adriatic Sea and the Karst plateau. The rainfall in the North, the highest in Italy, favours the development of natural meadows for livestock, providing ham and dairy products, while also the wine of Friuli is well known. Maize and other cereals are grown in the valley of the Tagliamento. However, the region is economically also specialised in various sectors such as textile, furniture and food industry and tourism (Interreg Mediterranean, 2017). The larger cities—Udine, Pordenone, Gorizia, Monfalcone, and Trieste—have all experienced considerable industrial development, and Trieste is one of Italy’s great ports (before 1914 it served most of Central Europe). The region is connected by rail and road with Austria, Slovenia, and Venice and thence the rest of Italy. Ecosystem and environmental characteristics The area belongs to the climate type Cfa, characterized by a warm temperature, humid (humid mesothermal) climate with rainfall throughout the year, but also experiences very hot summer season (AcegasApsAmga & DMG-UNITS, 2014, p. 4). The region has a great variety of climates and landscapes, with 42.5% of its surface consisting of mountains, 19.3% of hills (Friulian Dolomites, Carnic Alps, Julian Alps), and the remaining 38.2% of the plains located in the central areas and along the coast (Bajtalan, 2017; Tikkanen, 2024). In the North, the region is therefore characterised by e. g. Monte Croce Pass, the low Tarvisio saddle, and the Tagliamento River valley, considered one of the last morphologically intact rivers in the Alps. The South, it is characterised mostly by its low coastal plain, some of which is occupied by the shallow lagoons of Grado and Caorle. The Southeast extends as a narrow corridor, between the Carso limestone plateau and the Adriatic Sea to the city of Trieste. The region is also one of Italy’s most seismically active regions. While the alpine system protects the region from the direct impact of the rigid northerly winds, the opening towards the Po Valley influences the general circulation of air masses from the west to the east. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 136 With that, the region is affected by thunderand hailstorms, especially in summer times, as well as, being open to the Adriatic Sea, sirocco winds bringing heavy rainfalls (AcegasApsAmga & DMG-UNITS, 2014). The FVG region is one of the rainiest places in Italy, with the city of Udine contending about 1450mm of rain per year. Especially in the Julian Pre-Alps, about 25km in the northeast of Udine (Mt. Canin area), the average annual rainfall exceeds 3m, which is among the highest amount registered in Europe (ibid.). Figure 39. Map of Friuli-Venezia Giulia (TU Wien, 2024) Climate change in FVG, as in the entire western Mediterranean region, is leading to a decrease in annual precipitation, with mountain and coastal areas being more severely affected (Caloiero et al., 2023). At the same time, in urban and densely populated areas, such as the cities of Trieste, Udine, Pordenone, but also in the tourist areas of Lignano Sabbiadoro and Grado, few green spaces and a high degree of impermeability lead to a high vulnerability to heat (Pagani et al., 2022). Regional socio-economic profile FVG is ranked fourth among Italian regions in terms of disposable income while taking the first place among Italian regions when it comes to regional well-being indicators (OECD, 2023). The region demonstrates relatively highincome equality and strong employment rates. The population in Friuli-Venezia Giulia in the year 2022 amounts to 1,194,647 inhabitants (Eurostat, 2022), following a population density of 157.8 inhabitants per km2, close to the EU average of 109.1 persons per km2 (Eurostat, 2022) and a total annual change of population of -0.3 persons per year D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 143 10. Factsheet Subcarpathian Region Regional structures, political competencies and development objectives profoundly influence the potential pathways for regional CCA. This factsheet hence introduces the topographic, functional, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics that shape the region structurally, briefly introduces the territorial governance framework to illustrate the region's formal competencies for implementing CCA autonomously and gives and overview to key strategies that frame current regional CCA efforts. Poland is affected by climate change through rising temperatures and occurrences of extreme precipitation leading to various challenges such as river flooding, heat waves and weather extremes affecting agriculture. Since agriculture employs the largest number of skilled workers in Poland (in absolute and relative terms), this sector is particularly important and particularly vulnerable to climate change (Kundzewicz et al., 2018, p. 1516f). Climate change is also affecting he Subcarpathian Region, located in the southeastern Poland on the foot of the Carpathian Mountains. The Carpathians are the second-largest mountain range in Europe and function as one of the most important forests in terms of biodiversity. The temperature in the Carpathians is projected to increase between 3.0°C and 4.5°C by 2100 (UN Environment Programme, n.d.,) and is in need of adaptation policies to build resilience to extreme climate events (Czekaj, 2020). In the city of Rzeszów for instance, the climate change related increase of heat waves, average annual temperature and extreme precipitation (resulting in sudden urban floods), negatively impact the public health and specifically vulnerable groups, the water management, the transport system and the tourism sector (Rzeszów City Council, 2019). 10.1. Structural characteristics Overview of topographic and functional characteristics The Subcarpathian Region (Podkarpackie Voivodship) is located in the southeastern part of Poland. It shares borders to the north and west with the Małopolskie, Świętokrzyskie, and Lubelskie Voivodships, to the south with Slovakia, and to the east with Ukraine. The Voivodship encompasses three distinct physiographic regions: the Sandomierz Basin in the north, the Carpathian Foothills in the central area, and the Beskids in the south, which are further divided into the Beskid Niski and the Bieszczady Mountains. Additionally, the northeastern part of the Voivodship extends into the Roztocze range. The total area of Podkarpackie Voivodship amounts to 17,845km2, representing 5.7% of Poland's total land area. Of this, 54.0% is agricultural land, 39.0% is forested or covered by wooded and shrub areas, 5.0% is developed or urbanized land, and the remaining 2% consists of other types of land. The largest city and simultaneously the capital is Rzeszóv, which is surrounded by various medium and small towns. The size structure of the cities is characterized by many small towns with less than 5,000 inhabitants (amounting to 40% of all cities) (Center for Statistical Research and Education of the Central Statistic Office, n.d., p. 15ff). The province is divided into 21 powiats (equivalent to a county/district), 4 cities with powiat rights and 160 municipalities. (Czekaj, 2020, p. 21). Ecosystem and environmental characteristics The Subcarpathian Region is situated in a region with a moderate climate that exhibits transitional characteristics between maritime and continental climates. Within the region, three primary climate zones can be identified: the mountainous area, which includes the Bieszczady, Beskid Niski, and Sanocko-Turczańskie Mountains; the submontane region, encompassing the Carpathian Foothills; and the sub mountainous basins, such as the Sandomierz Basin. Additionally, certain areas in the Low Beskids, like Rymanów-Zdrój, experience a climate typical of mountain resorts (Center for Statistical Research and Education of the Central Statistic Office, n.d., p. 15ff). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 144 Figure 41. Map of Subcarpathian Region (TU Wien, 2024) Regional socio-economic profile In the Subcarpathian Region, the total population amounts to 1,968,616 inhabitants in 2022 (Eurostat, 2022). The total population decline amounts to -3.2 inhabitants per 1,000 inhabitants annually (crude rate of total population change per 1,000 inhabitants) (Eurostat, 2022) following a population density of 117.6 persons per km2 in the year 2021 (Eurostat, 2022). As in all of Poland recently, the region is facing an increased risk of an ageing population. The median age of the population was estimated at 41.8 years (Eurostat, 2022). Withing the age group of 15 to 64 years the employment rate was estimated to be 63.4% in 2022, the second lowest in comparison to the other project regions and characterised by a comparatively high gender gap (70.5% employment rate of men, 56.1% employment rate of women) (Eurostat, 2022). In 2022, the GDP in the Subcarpathian Region amounted to € 24,486,83 million (3.7% of the national GDP) (Eurostat, 2022). The Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) of the inhabitants in the Subcarpathian Region in 2022 numbers € 19,100 PPS per inhabitant (Eurostat, 2022). 19.0% of the population living in the region were estimated to be at risk of poverty or social exclusion (Eurostat, 2022). A unique selling point of the Subcarpathian region is the high concentration of aerospace companies as well as various science and research centres and IT companies, the latter also being one of the fastest growing industries in the region, as well as the automotive sector (Podkarpackiego, n.d.). In terms of employment, the main business activities were conducted in the sector trade and repair of motor vehicles, construction and industrial processing (Center for Statistical Research and Education of the Central Statistic Office, n.d., p. 25). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 145 Table 24. Socio-economic data for Subcarpathians, compared to EU average (Source: Eurostat, 2022) Population density (per km2) Median age (in years) Population change (in % from 2021 to 2022) PPS per capita (in €) Employment rate (in %) Risk of poverty (in %) Subcarpathian Region (2022) 117.6 (2021) 41.8 -3.2 19,100 63.4 19.0 EU-average (2022) 109.1 44.5 +4.0 35,400 74.4 21.6 10.2. Governance framework Poland as a unitary state is organised at three levels: voivodships or regions, counties and municipalities. The governance of Poland and its administrative units is subject to the principle of decentralization. The voivodships therefore have executive power, bundled and executed in the voivodship executive board as well as legislative power, represented through the respective regional assemblies in matters of regional interest. They are authorized to assigning various sectors, including spatial planning and environmental protection. However, according to the Constitution, the basic unit of local self-government is the municipality, which also holds authority over multiple sectors of local interest, among others environment and nature protection (European Committee of the Regions, n.d.). 10.3. Strategy framework for CCA The current strategic framework for climate change adaptation in Poland is the “Polish National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by 2020 with the perspective by 2030” from the year 2013 (SPA2020)”, with the aim “to ensure conditions for stable socio-economic development in the face of the risks posed by climate change, but also with a view to using the positive impact that adaptation activities can have not only on the condition of the Polish environment, but also on economic growth.” (Ministry of the Environment, 2013, p. 5) This plan is part of a broader research project called KLIMADA, (c.f. KLIMADA), which functions as an official platform for national adaptation information. The “SPA2020” has not been updated since its publication and although the strategy was in line with international and EU regulations with regards to CCA, Poland’s previous government had brought lawsuits against four EU climate policies. However, the new government under the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is going to withdraw these lawsuits (Abnett & Strzelecki, 2024). The project "Development of Urban Adaptation Plans for cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants in Poland” (20152018 (cf. 44mpa) has been implemented by the Ministry of Environment/Climate and has assessed the sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in 44 Polish Cities. The project resulted in the development of adaptation measures for the identified risks for each city which are bundled in adaptation plans (Republic of Poland, n.d.). The plan for the city of Rzeszóv “Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the City of Rzeszów until 2030” has already been published. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 146 11. Annex 11.1. Conceptual understanding The concept of climate change risks and their impacts, as highlighted in the AR5 (IPCC, 2014), is embedded in two major domains of natural and anthropogenic climate variabilities and overall socioeconomic process (Figure 42). Building on this understanding and our research framework (Deliverable D1.1), a concept for the study of regional CCA governance was developed (D1.2). Risk of climate-related impacts result from the complex interaction between climate-related hazards and the place-specific vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. We therefore first apply a systemic risk assessment. This initial assessment of immediate climate risks for each Demonstrator Region is based on the respective climate impact chains (IC). While primarily addressing ecological and biophysical risks, socio-economic vulnerabilities are also included to reflect on the socioeconomic processes of the region. Figure 42. Conceptualisation of systemic risk (Source: IPCC, 2014, p. 3). Socioeconomic processes are path-dependent, they are deeply entrenched in historically established structural and institutional conditions, cultural value systems, preferences or well-proven governance arrangements. They shape the social and economic trajectory of a region. Together, these factors heavily influence the future pathways for regional development, particularly in terms of transformative CCA. Accordingly, the regional baseline differentiates three fundamental aspects of the socioeconomic process for analysis: D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 147 • Socioeconomic pathways: based on a structural overview of the region’s physical and functional geography, basic statistical data on its socio-economic structure, and its identity and self-image. • Regional CCA governance: based on the prevailing political approaches to and interpretations of CCA in the respective region, the associated objectives, policies, and stakeholders, as well as the modes of engagement to successfully address CCA locally. • Adaptation actions: based on concrete regional measures and projects tackling specific CCA challenges and relevant for transformative change. Using an interpretive approach, the different layers of analysis allow for carving out the key spheres of a regional ‘Adaptation activity space’ (2015) and how these translate into concrete transformative capacities for transformative adaptation in the respective MountResilience region (Figure 43). Figure 43. Conceptual understanding of transformative regional development (TU Wien, 2024) The concept highlights the interactions between actors and spheres, pointing towards the ability of actors to influence local structures, while also allowing to address the negotiation processes within the various spheres of the activity space (ibid. p. 119). The concept is rooted in Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) as the holistic foundation of determinants of local transformative development (McPhearson et al., 2022). Following this understanding, SETS shape not only the path-dependent regional development trajectory, but also the systemic risks associated with a region. Together, the regional trajectory and the systemic risks thus determine the scope and constraints for ‘doing’ regional CCA in the adaptation activity space. The comprehensive combination of regional governance factors results in the depiction of concrete transformative capacities, important for transformative adaptation to come to fruition. The introduced approach forms the basis for the formulation of consolidated conclusions regarding regional adaptation challenges and opportunities. It also provides takeaways for the implementation of the respective DA and other regional CCA activities, thereby contributing to the enhanced understanding and effective application of CCA for transformative development in European mountainous regions. A conceptual embedding in Social-Ecological-Technological Systems thinking & systemic risks The most prominent systemic approaches to transformation guiding our understanding are the Socio-Ecological Systems (SES), the Socio-Technical Systems (STS) and, further extending both, the Social-EcologicalTechnological Systems (SETS) approach. While the SES and STS approach recognise helping to better D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 148 understand human-nature and human-technology relations (Cote & Nightingale, 2012; Smith & Stirling, 2010), the SETS Framework (McPhearson et al., 2022) develops this understanding further. It points towards the explicit systemic interactions and interdependencies by focusing on linkages among broadly defined social, ecological, and technological dimensions of complex systems. In particular, it allows a detailed perspective on nature-based solutions, best understood within their social, ecological, and technical-infrastructural dimensions, providing viable solutions to present climate change challenges inspired and supported by nature (Frantzeskaki, 2019). Risks, in the context of climate change, are being determined by exposure and vulnerability to impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events (Cardona et al., 2012). They are also understood as the potential for adverse consequences for human and ecological systems. With vulnerability and exposure posing non-static processes, that vary across spatial and temporal scales, they are dependent on economic, geographic, cultural, institutional, governance as well as environmental factors (ibid p. 67). Therefore, the actual exposure to risks emerges as a result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with affected human or ecological systems and their ability to cope and adapt to the impacts. Overall, together with the need to engage stakeholders in discussions on climate-related impacts, the planning of adaptations to climate change requires a deep understanding of how climate-related impacts cascade across sectors of society (Estoque et al., 2022). The Impact Chain (IC) Approach further helps to map the potential climate risks and vulnerabilities and describe climate impacts as cause-effect relationships within a socio-ecological system along three steps: (1) climate stimuli (e.g. droughts, floods, and shifts in climatic regimes); (2) direct climate impact (consequences of changing climate stimuli, which can be both biophysical and social); and (3) indirect climate impacts (secondary effects that result from direct climate impacts). Transformative adaptation According to Fedele et al. (2019), there are numerous barriers for the implementation of transformative adaptation measures, leading to a preference for choosing rather simpler coping or incremental adaptation responses (Figure 44). These barriers range from a lack of social or political support, a tendency to adapt through business-as-usual strategies, and lacking familiarity with alternative strategies, to the uncertainty about outcomes, power imbalances, and rigid governance structures (ibid. p. 117). Looking at examples from agricultural land use, Fedele et al. (2019) identify the main stages towards transformative adaptation in the inaction of systems suffering from climate impacts, moving towards coping strategies out of necessity. With growing pressure for alternative solutions, these may lead towards incremental adaptation, and in combination with a more holistic approach, builds the basis for actual transformative adaptation that is replacing prevailing status-quo approaches to development. The potential to link transformation with CCA was early pointed out in the IPCC’s AR5 report (IPCC, 2014, 513 ff.), raising awareness towards the need for moving from incremental adaptations to systemic, transformational approaches. Still, the recent IPCC synthesis report (IPCC, 2023, p. 27) highlights that most approaches to adaptation remain fragmented, small in scale, incremental, sector-specific and more focused on strategies and plans than on actual implementation, while many funding, knowledge and practice gaps remain present. Building on the understanding of transformative adaptation as changing “the fundamental attributes of systems in response to actual or expected climate and its effects” (IPCC, 2023, p. 839), this approach helps to overcome soft adaptation limits and generate adaptation of broader aspects of development through more holistic adaptation activities (Few, Morchain, Spear, Mensah, & Bendapudi, 2017, p. 6). Pelling et al. (2015) note that transformative adaptation goes beyond the preservation of status-quo adjustments for functional persistence, it challenges the doings and functioning of regional systems and their broader networks to respond with novel solutions to actual challenges. D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 149 Figure 44. Strategies towards transformative adaptation (Source: Fedele et al., 2019, p. 117) On place and paths: Path-dependency, regional trajectories, and adaptation pathways Understanding path dependence as “a process or effect that is locally contingent and locally emergent, and hence to a large extend ‘place dependent’” (Martin & Sunley, 2006, p. 3), the concept helped to provide answers for the continuity of place dependent economic activities, shaping regional development responses (Martin, 2010). Path dependence and path creation as well as new path development (Grillitsch & Sotarauta, 2020) are key concepts of evolutionary economic geography helping to understand regional economic development trajectories and reginal processes, “in which previous events affect the probability of future events to occur” (Boschma & Frenken, 2006, p. 281). Calling for a more comprehensive understanding of new regional economic activities, new multi-actor and multi-scalar approaches to regional economic development have been proposed (Grillitsch & Sotarauta, 2020; Hassink, Isaksen, & Trippl, 2019). Though the discussion on path dependence and path development mostly focussed on economic development at its core, it emphasised the place-dependency of regional development processes and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the regional actor, governance and socio-economic landscapes. Therefore, Hassink et al. (2019) emphasise the need for (1) an application of a multi-actor framework, together with (2) a multi-scalar approach that includes extra-regional factors, while (3) exploring regional development visions and expectations and (4) considering inter-path relations and local interdependencies. Adapting to climate change poses an enormous challenge for society, with decision making being constrained by societal norms, knowledge forms and values as well as preferences guiding future goalsetting (Colloff et al., 2016). As sustainable development and CCA measures are facing significant complexity and are at the same time coshaped by uncertain eco-social challenges, planning approaches promoting adaptability increasingly need to accommodate changing conditions over time (Werners, Wise, Butler, Totin, & Vincent, 2021). The notion of adaptation pathways addresses decisions and measures sequenced in time to achieve future goals with adaptation responses, considering path dependency, decision sequencing, and timeframes (Colloff et al., 2016; Werners et al., 2021; Wise et al., 2014). As such, this allows for the identification of different adaptation options, but also for understanding how changes in pathways have occurred (Fazey et al., 2018). D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 150 Figure 45. Adaptation pathways (Source: Wise et al., 2014, p. 333) Wise et al. (2014, p. 325) consider the implications of path dependency as interactions between adaptation plans, vested interests, global change, and situations where values, interests, or institutions constrain societal responses to change. Therefore, they differentiate between ‘classic’ adaptation pathways, path dependency and transformative cycles to assess the actual ‘adaptive space’, institutional preparedness and change over time (Figure 45). With the ‘classic’ view on CCA often ignoring the embeddedness of adaptation in social processes (Câmpeanu & Fazey, 2014), the concept of adaptation pathways helps to steer attention towards the decision-making process and its cultural, political, economic, environmental and developmental context that crosses spatial scales, sectors and jurisdictional boundaries. “Doing” regional CCA: Introducing the adaptation activity space Pelling et al. (2015) formulate the adaptation activity space as a conceptual lens, aiming to identify spaces in which transformation (and other adaptive actions) can be observed. The seven interrelated activity spheres are essentially co-evolving with time, with each bearing a transformative potential. The concept allows unpacking the systemic components where transformation is already taking place or could be induced (Pelling et al., 2015). We apply this concept to systematically analyse different spheres of relevance regarding CCA governance and actions on the regional level. The spheres, co-evolving though history, are interrelated and “each activity sphere itself is capable of transformation as a result of internal processes of change, as well as in response to changes in surrounding spheres” (Pelling et al., 2015, p. 120). Asking about the relative significance, phasing and direction as well as interaction of D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 151 individual activity spheres in specific cases of transformation, the authors address power relations that shape the content and interactions of spheres, opening or closing spaces for transformation, incremental adjustment and future resistance. Table 25. Spheres of the adaptation activity space (cf. Pelling et al., 2015, p. 119) Spheres as in Pelling et al., 2015 MountResilience Spheres Description Individuals (values and identity) Actors Actors and stakeholders with active roles in regional CCA (both factually and envisioned), their significance for transformative change, and their interactions (if any). Technology (material or orgnaizational) Technologies Material interventions, such as engineered structures, new seed varieties, watershed-management tools, early warning systems, and innovation in organization structure and function. Livelihood (production & labour) Economy Economic trajectory of a region (e.g., dominant, identityforming sectors), and how this trajectory and a regional workforce are affected by climate change and CCA actions (both positively and negatively). Discourse (popular and policy) Discourse Concepts, strategies and visions that provide system and normative knowledge, aspirations, future visions and scenarios for CCA and suggest place-specific strategies for (transformative) adaptation. Behaviour (practices and routines) Practices ”Ways of doing things” (traditional or established) in the everyday lifeworlds of regional individuals that are either endangered by climate change or serve as levers of adaptation and transformation. Environment (biotic and abiotic) Environment Actual physical structures and environmental system conditions as analysed in the systemic risk assessment. Institutions (regulatory and cultural) Institutions Rules and regulations that play a significant role on framing regional CCA actions. Towards climate action: Adaptation can be understood as key types of adaptation actions Adaptation as “the process of adjustment to climate effects to moderate the negative impacts and/or enhance the positive impacts of climate change” (Fankhauser, 2017, p. 210), is an essential response to climate change. The Paris Agreement set the agenda for global political action towards adaptation, placing adaptation along with the urgency for mitigation efforts. However, adaptation to climate change continues to pose numerous challenges in practice (Fankhauser, 2017). While social and ecosystems have always adapted to changing climatic conditions, adaptation is by no means automatic. It requires knowledge, planning, coordination, and foresight (ibid.). With prevailing knowledge gaps, behavioural barriers, and market failures blocking effective adaptation, effective and holistic interventions are needed To ensure comparability, we are relying on the common framework and reporting approach developed by the ‘European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation’ (ETC/CCA), distinguishing five key type measures, proposed as: (1) governance and institutional, (2) economic and D1.2. REGIONAL DIAGNOSIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 152 finance, (3) physical and technological, (4) nature based solutions and ecosystembased approaches, as well as (5) knowledge and behavioural change targeting measures (Leitner et al., 2020). Moving from adaptive to transformative capacity Adaptive capacity is the “ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to respond to consequences” (IPCC, 2022, p. 2899). However, the determinants for adaptive capacity differ greatly based on their scale and interdependencies (Smit & Pilifosova, 2003). Whereas a high adaptive capacity does not automatically lead to actual adaptation or transformation on an individual or household scale, (multi-level) governance of adaptation in particular poses an important enabling condition for planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating adaptation action (Mortreux, O’Neill, & Barnett, 2020). The adaptive capacity discourse, however, has been criticized for not properly considering the comprehensiveness of the transformation issue. A number of authors have thus contributed to the development of a thorough understanding of transformative capacity as an advancement of adaptation discourse (Shahani, Pineda-Pinto, & Frantzeskaki, 2022; Wolfram, 2016; Ziervogel, Cowen, & Ziniades, 2016), better serving as a practical guide for regional policyand decisionmakers, communities and practitioners on how to engage in transformative change. Overcoming a focus on mere adaptation responses towards more long-term transformative change, the concept of transformative capacities offers a perspective on the wider interplay, forming a systemic perspective. In particular, the framework proposed by Wolfram’s (2016) of ten adaptive capacities addresses organizational visions, work culture, structures, skills, human and material resources, but also community participation, relations, networks and institutions, and the understanding of existing systems (Table 26). Building on these observations, Wolfram proposes the following 10 TCs, with first three referring to forms of agency and interaction, 4-8 reflecting the core development processes, while 9 and 10 addressing relational dimensions affecting all other capacities (ibid. p. 126). Following Wolfram’s (2016) understanding we aimed at embedding the approach in the guiding questions for our regional assessments to better address power imbalances, changes and opportunities for transformative change. Table 26. Transformative capacities (authors’ elaboration following Wolfram, 2016) Transformative Capacities Guiding Questions Inclusive & multiform governance … with wide stakeholder participation and cross-sectoral diversity • Are actors broadly involved in CCA actions and what does cooperation look like – (in)formal, contractual, hierarchical? • Are there intermediary actors engaged in regional CCA? • What does CCA governance look like – cooperation, funding, regulations, strategies, …? Leadership … polycentric, socially embedded, allowing for the articulation of new visions • Who are initiators of CCA action or key agents of change? • Is there political commitment and action to adapt to climate change? Empowered & autonomous communities … with access to resources and able to form coalitions • Are there independent or interdependent regional interest groups addressing CCA and how are they dealt with?