Does satisfaction with amenities and environment influence the taste for revolt in the middle east?

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Gholipour, Hassan F. Article — Published Version Does satisfaction with amenities and environment influence the taste for revolt in the middle east? Constitutional Political Economy Provided in Cooperation with: Springer Nature Suggested Citation: Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Gholipour, Hassan F. (2023) : Does satisfaction with amenities and environment influence the taste for revolt in the middle east?, Constitutional Political Economy, ISSN 1572-9966, Springer US, New York, NY, Vol. 35, Iss. 4, pp. 523-565, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-023-09422-z This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317924 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Vol.:(0123456789) Constitutional Political Economy (2024) 35:523–565 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-023-09422-z 1 3 ORIGINAL PAPER Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence thetaste forrevolt inthemiddle east? MohammadRezaFarzanegan1,2,3 · HassanF.Gholipour4 Accepted: 19 November 2023 / Published online: 14 December 2023 © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between individuals’ satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality and taste for revolt in the Middle East. Using recent World Value Survey data (WVS7, 2017–2021) from Egypt and Iraq (which have been experiencing severe environmental degradation and inadequate and mismanagement of public infrastructure) and applying Probit regressions, our results show that satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators are negatively and statistically related to individuals’ inclination towards revolt in both countries. This finding is more pronounced in urban areas, particularly in large cities. We also find that individuals’ satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality affect the taste of revolt through the individual’s life satisfaction and satisfaction with the government’s provision of utilities. The analysis for Egypt suggests that satisfaction with public transportation systems, roads and highways, air quality, and housing quality are significantly and negatively associated with support for revolutionary action. For the Iraq sample, we find that dissatisfaction with roads and highways, water quality, school quality, and the physical settings of cities lead to a higher probability of support for uprising. Keywords Amenities· Air quality· Middle east· Environment· Pollution· Revolution· Satisfaction JEL Classification D74· H54· Q53 * Mohammad Reza Farzanegan f[email protected] Hassan F. Gholipour [email protected] 1 Economics oftheMiddle East Research Group, Center forNear andMiddle Eastern Studies (CNMS), School ofBusiness andEconomics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg, Germany 2 ERF, Cairo, Egypt 3 CESifo, Munich, Germany 4 School ofBusiness, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia 524 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 1 Introduction The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between individuals’ satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators and their preference for revolt in two Middle Eastern countries, Egypt and Iraq. These countries have experienced several social uprisings and revolutions over the past century (e.g., The Egyptian Revolution of 1919; The Egyptian Revolution of 1952; The Egyptian "bread riots" of 1977; The 2011 Egyptian revolution; The 1920 Iraqi Revolt; The 1935–1936 Iraqi Shia revolts; The 1958 Iraqi coup d’état). The latest one was the “Arab Spring” experienced by several Arab countries in 2011 (Ferrero, 2018). During and after the “Arab Spring,” several researchers and political commentators have attempted to explain the determinants of individuals’ support for revolution in these countries (e.g., Ianchovichina etal., 2015; Verme etal., 2014). While existing conceptual studies provide valuable insights on the determinants of uprisings in Arab countries, there is a lack of empirical work on individuals’ inclination towards revolts in the Middle East region using recent data. In this study, we focus on a specific determinant of people’s preferences for radical change: satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality. Specifically, we attempt to understand whether the taste for revolt is lower (higher) for individuals who are more satisfied (dissatisfied) with public services (such as healthcare, the physical beauty of cities, transportation systems, and schools), environmental quality (air and water quality), and housing quality.1 Environmental degradation, especially air and water pollution, as well as inadequate and mismanaged public infrastructure, have been key challenges for most Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the past decades (Farzanegan & Markwardt, 2018; Farzanegan etal., 2021, 2023; Gholipour & Farzanegan, 2018). In a recent report by the World Bank, Heger etal. (2022) provide evidence that living standards, including incomes, human capital, and infrastructure, have improved in MENA countries over the past three decades, but at significant costs to natural capital deterioration. They show that emissions, marine pollution, ocean acidification, and water stress due to unsustainable water management have increased. Additionally, terrestrial and marine ecosystems have deteriorated and natural habitats have been destroyed. The average urban resident in the MENA region breathes air that exceeds safe levels of pollutants by more than ten times. In terms of economic costs, the environmental degradation of the skies and seas is estimated to cost more than 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in some of the region’s economies. In addition to economic and health costs, environmental degradation, especially due to water shortages and excessive water pollution, have caused violent and non-violent protests in some MENA countries, such as Iraq (Human Right Watch, 2019) and Egypt (Climate Diplomacy, 2022). The recent individual-level survey data collected by the World Value Survey Wave 7 (WVS7) from Egypt and Iraq in 2018 make it possible to explore the link 1 For a theoretical analysis of the revolution process in non-democratic contexts, see Apolte (2016). 525 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… between citizen satisfaction with amenities, environmental quality, and preference for revolution. In WVS7, there are specific questions for the Middle Eastern countries that measure the respondents’ level of satisfaction with public and social services, living environment, and quality of housing. These questions were not asked in other countries. The survey also measures preference for revolutionary action. Controlling for other drivers of the taste for revolt and applying Probit regressions, we find evidence that individuals who have a higher level of satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality are less likely to support revolutionary action in Egypt and Iraq. Our study contributes to the literature in three ways. First, while several studies have examined the impact of aggregate economic and political variables (e.g., income inequality, GDP per capita, growth in GDP, type of government in power, civil, economic, and political freedom) as well as individual socioeconomic characteristics (including gender, age, income, marital status, education, and religiosity) on support for radical change (e.g., François etal., 2021; MacCulloch, 2003; MacCulloch, 2004; MacCulloch, 2005; MacCulloch & Pezzini, 2007; MacCulloch & Pezzini, 2010; Maimone Ansaldo Patti etal., 2021), to the best of our knowledge, no empirical research has examined the link between individual satisfaction with amenities, environmental quality, and taste for revolt using recent data. Second, the present study provides insights into differences between resource-dependent economies (Iraq) and non-resource-dependent economies (Egypt) in terms of the determinants of individuals’ preference for revolutionary action. Third, our paper contributes to the literature on the effect of satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality on various social and behavioral variables. While Nakamura and Managi (2020) and others have examined the impact of amenity quality (and/or satisfaction with amenities) on life satisfaction, internal conflicts, protests, marital stability, aggressive and violent disputes, investigation into the link between different types of amenities and environmental quality indicators and individuals’ taste for revolt has received relatively little attention from existing studies. We address these gaps in the literature. Understanding citizens’ taste for revolt is crucial to anticipate/prevent revolution/ uprising in two major economies in the Middle East region, given their geopolitical location and importance in the global energy markets. As shown by Maimone Ansaldo Patti et al. (2021) and MacCulloch and Pezzini (2010), there is a strong correlation between individual taste for revolt and different types of violence in various countries. 2 Review ofliterature 2.1 Prior literature ondeterminants ofindividuals’ taste forrevolt These studies examine the impact of various socio-economic and demographic characteristics, as well as aggregate economic and political variables, on individuals’ preference for revolutionary action. It is important to note that our focus is on people’s inclination towards revolutionary action rather than on actual episodes of 526 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 internal conflict. Therefore, we only review the determinants of individuals’ support for revolutionary action, and not the determinants of intrastate war or internal conflicts. Using individual-level data from 12 European countries between 1976 and 1990, MacCulloch (2003) found that the probability of supporting revolt was higher among males, the unemployed, those with low income, and younger people. He also demonstrated that being married, religious, and having right-wing political ideology reduced the chance of having revolutionary tendencies. His Probit regressions also indicated that a decrease in the level of GDP per capita, more income inequality, and a right-wing government in power were associated with a stronger preference for radical action. In a subsequent study, MacCulloch (2004) showed that the probability of supporting revolt was significantly lower in countries with a higher level of GDP per capita and among individuals with higher income. Controlling for a set of personal characteristics and country and year fixed effects, MacCulloch (2005) found that lower levels of personal income and greater income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) had a positive and significant effect on increasing the chance that an individual supports revolt. His results also indicated that employed, female, married or widowed, and older individuals were less likely to support revolutionary actions. MacCulloch and Pezzini (2007), using survey data from 61 countries between 1981 and 1997, showed that individuals’ income and religiosity, as well as economic growth, reduced revolutionary support. In a subsequent study, MacCulloch and Pezzini (2010), using a similar data set, found that higher levels of freedom (including civil liberties and democratic freedoms), higher economic growth, higher levels of international trade, and religiosity have negative and significant effects on individuals’ revolutionary support. Regarding freedom, Maimone Ansaldo Patti etal. (2021) provided evidence that individuals with less subjective freedom and living in more fragmented countries (more diverse societies) are more inclined towards revolts, by using WVS individual-level data collected from 51 countries between 1990 and 2003. Their results also indicated that freedom could moderate the impact of social diversity on individuals’ preferences for revolutionary action. They also found that economic and political freedom negatively affect individual preferences for revolutionary action. François etal. (2021) showed that majority rule, periodic elections, and power-sharing institutions in democratic systems decreased revolutionary attitudes. 2.2 The impact ofsatisfaction withamenity andenvironmental quality onindividuals’ quality oflife The other strand of literature closely related to our work is the relationship between satisfaction with amenities, environmental quality, and individuals’ life satisfaction (or happiness, subjective well-being, and quality of life).2 The 2 We use these terms interchangeably. 527 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… majority of these studies have shown that well-developed public services, higher environmental quality, and favorable climatic factors improve citizens’ mental wellbeing and life satisfaction. For example, using large-scale survey data from municipalities in Japan, Nakamura and Managi (2020) found that citizens’ satisfaction with overall municipal services has a positive impact on life satisfaction. They also showed that social aspects (e.g., adequate quality of housing, adequacy of education services) of municipal services have a stronger impact on life satisfaction than economic (e.g., tax revenues) and environmental (e.g., quality of air and water) aspects. Regarding environmental quality and quality of life, Silva etal. (2012) found that a higher level of air pollution (measured in terms of PM10 concentrations) has a negative impact on individuals’ satisfaction with air quality, which leads to a lower level of subjective well-being in both OECD and non-OECD countries. MacKerron and Mourato (2013) showed that individuals in the UK are significantly and substantially happier when outdoors in all green or natural habitat types than they are in urban environments. They provide three reasons for the positive link between the experiences of natural environments and happiness: (1) exposure to natural environments affects the nervous system, reducing stress and restoring attention (Wilson, 1993, p.31), (2) noise and air pollution are higher in urban areas (than in natural environments) and have adverse impacts on physical health (e.g., Gouveia & Maisonet, 2005), which, in turn, reduces an individual’s happiness, and (3) experiences of natural environments may increase life satisfaction by facilitating and encouraging behaviors that are physically and mentally beneficial, including physical exercise, recreation, and social interaction (e.g., Morris, 2003). In a similar study, MacKerron and Mourato (2009) showed that both perceived and measured air pollution levels are significantly negatively associated with the life satisfaction of survey respondents in London. The relationship between environmental quality, climatic factors, and life satisfaction has also been found in Australia (Carroll etal., 2009), Ireland (Brereton etal., 2008), and across countries (Rehdanz & Maddison, 2008). Brereton etal. (2008) provide evidence that amenities such as climate, environmental, and urban conditions (e.g., wind speed, temperature, access to major transport routes, and proximity to the coast and waste facilities) are important determinants of an individual’s life satisfaction in Ireland. Ambrey and Fleming (2014) found that higher levels of public greenspace are associated with higher levels of welfare for residents of Australia’s capital cities. Using data from Guangzhou, China, Su etal. (2022) showed that an increase in temperature during the winter, lower noise levels, and lower PM2.5 can improve individuals’ momentary happiness. Winters and Li (2017) also found that higher temperatures in winters have a significant positive impact on self-reported lifesatisfaction in the US. In terms of housing, using data from the 2006 Chinese General Social Survey, Zhang etal. (2018) showed that housing satisfaction and homeownership are significant determinants of people’s overall life satisfaction in urban China. 528 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 2.3 Satisfaction withamenity & environmental quality andindividuals’ taste forrevolt In this section, we conceptualize the link between satisfaction with amenity & environmental quality and individuals’ preference for revolt in Egypt and Iraq and then develop our hypotheses. In Sect.2.2, we show that efficient public services, housing quality, environmental quality, and favorable climatic factors enhance the subjective well-being of citizens. However, the reduction in life satisfaction caused by a polluted environment, inefficient public services, and poor quality of housing is not the end of the story in the majority of MENA countries, where the citizens of most of these countries are among the angriest people in the world (Gallup, 2020). According to Gallup (2020), the top six countries in terms of people’s anger are Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, and Iran. In these countries, dissatisfaction with amenities and environmental quality can easily turn into anger and aggression, which often leads to violent and hostile behavior. For example, Feizi etal. (2019) showed that rainfall shortage and precipitation scarcity had a significant impact on violent conflicts and tensions across provinces in Iran over the period of 2007–2014. They argued that this is because "water is a reserve with no replacement and consistent, and instant need. The struggle to get access to its scarce resource might lead people to show non-cooperative, and even hostile and violent behaviors." In addition, "precipitation deficiency might give an income shock, make people nervous, and make them violent" (p. 890–91). Ianchovichina etal. (2015) and Verme etal. (2014) also noted that the outburst of popular anger in the MENA region during the "Arab Spring" was rooted in individual perceptions of falling living standards, poor public services, and the lack of government accountability (Maimone Ansaldo Patti etal., 2021). We hypothesize that citizens living in environments where public services are perceived as undesirable and inefficient and the quality of air, water, and housing is unsatisfactory may feel frustrated and are likely to be less satisfied with their lives, which, in turn, can lead to higher levels of anger (Coccia, 2018) and a preference for radical change in government. This is, to some extent, in line with the view that preferences for revolt stem from a sense of grievance associated with feelings of social injustice, unfairness, or exploitation of a group of people (MacCulloch & Pezzini, 2007; Hirshleifer, 1995). MacCulloch (2004) also argued that individuals’ feelings of extreme frustration (and discontent) positively contribute to the decision to participate in mass rebellious actions. Similarly, Finkel and Muller (1998) showed that dissatisfaction with public or collective goods is one of the key determinants of individuals’ participation in collective protest. Kassinove (2012) also argued that anger plays a useful part in social movements, for example, for equality for Black people, the elderly, and women. Gurr (1971) noted that the failure to gain the expected benefits from modernization by particular groups in society can lead to frustration and revolt. Based on the above discussion, our general hypothesis is: 529 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Hypothesis Individuals at higher levels of dissatisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators tend to support more radical change in societies, ceteris paribus. 3 Data andmethodology 3.1 Data To test our hypotheses, we rely on unique survey data collected by the WVS Wave 7 in Egypt and Iraq (Haerpfer etal., 2022). The survey questionnaire included specific questions that were only asked of respondents from a number of Middle Eastern countries. The survey responses were collected from 1200 Egyptians and 1200 Iraqis in 2018. These two countries were selected for analysis not only due to data availability but also for their geopolitical location and importance in the global energy markets. Approximately 10% of global proven crude oil reserves and about 17% of Middle Eastern crude oil proved reserves are in Iraq (OPEC, 2023). Egypt has a strategic position in the Middle East, operating the Suez Canal and the SuezMediterranean Pipeline, which are important to the transportation infrastructure of international energy markets (EIA, 2022). Any major political changes in these countries may have contagion effects on other countries in the region, which was seen during the Arab Spring. 3.2 Dependent variable The dependent variable in our study is individuals’ support for revolutionary action. In the “Social Values, Attitudes; Stereotypes” section of the WVS Wave 7 survey, there is a question that asks respondents about their attitudes towards the society they live in. Specifically, respondents are asked: “On this card, there are three basic kinds of attitudes concerning the society we live in. Please choose the one which best describes your own opinion. (Please code only one option from the list below): (1) The entire way our society is organized must be radically changed by revolutionary action (2) Our society must be gradually improved by reforms (3) Our present society must be valiantly defended against all subversive forces.” Following MacCulloch (2004), the dependent variable in our study is a binary variable that equals 1 if the respondent agrees that “The entire way our society is organized must be radically changed by revolutionary action” and 0 otherwise. For the regression analyses, we removed 66 cases from the Egypt sample because they either had missing or multiple answers or responded as “don’t know.” There were no missing or multiple answers or “don’t know” responses for the Iraq sample. We 530 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 1 Descriptive statistics (after polishing the data) Variables Egypt Iraq Frequency (%) Mean Std. dev Obs Frequency (%) Mean Std. dev Obs Support for revolutionary action 24.07 1134 20.25 1200 Satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators The public transportation systems 2.32 0.85 1185 na na na The roads and highways 2.37 0.86 1192 2.15 1.04 1197 The schools 2.21 0.85 1177 2.2 0.98 1195 The quality of air 2.59 0.88 1192 2.21 1.006 1193 The quality of water 2.28 0.96 1193 2.06 0.98 1195 The quality of health care 1.94 0.86 1195 1.93 0.93 1195 The quality of housing 2.53 0.88 1197 2.26 1 1193 Beauty construction na na na 2.22 1 1192 The beauty of physical setting of city 2.3 0.82 1195 2.23 1.02 1191 Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators 2.32 0.65 1165 2.16 0.73 1180 Average of amenities 2.282 0.653 1167 2.174 0.763 1182 Average of environmental quality indicators 2.438 0.83 1191 2.141 0.887 1193 Age 39.69 13.44 1200 36.6 13.4 1200 Sex (male = 1) 51.75 1200 50.67 1200 Income scales (1 = lowest income group; 10 highest income group) 4.99 1.39 1114 4.45 1.82 1200 Marital status (married = 1) 69.42 1200 72.08 1200 Education (tertiary education = 1) 21 1200 25.9 1197 Employment status (base group: retired/pensioned, housewife, student and others) 1199 Full time employee 27.44 22.77 Part time employee 12.68 8.24 537 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 2 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Free choice and control over lives (1–10 scale) − .105*** (.022) − .108*** (.022) − .111*** (.022) − .104*** (.022) − .107*** (.022) − .107*** (.022 − .105*** (.021) − .110*** (.022) − .105*** (.022) − .106*** (.022) − .106*** (.022) Believe in income equality (1–10 scale) .063*** (.016) .062*** (.016) .062*** (.016) .062*** (.016) .062*** (.016) .064*** (.016) .063*** (.016) .063*** (.016) .062*** (.016) .063*** (.016) .063*** (.016) Constant .481* (.287) .502* (.291) .361 (.294) .551* (.286) .422 (.285) .405 (.287) .502* (.290) .356 (.292) .571* (.299) .540* (.301) .540* (.301) Number of observations 963 968 959 967 967 966 968 968 951 952 952 Wald chi2 76.41 79.55 72.38 77.37 72.73 73.29 74.64 72.47 76.88 76.36 76.36 Robust standard errors in parentheses “na” indicates that this question was not asked of the survey respondents in the country *p < 0.10 **p < 0.05 *** p < 0.01 538 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 3 Results of probit regressions for Iraq (full sample) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators The public transportation systems na The roads and highways − .099** (.043) The schools − .095** (.044) The quality of air − .039 (.044) The quality of water − .120*** (.046) The quality of health care − .057 (.046) The quality of housing − .065 (.045) Beauty construction − .088* (.046) The beauty of physical setting of city − .091** (.046) 539 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 3 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators − .154** (.061) Average of amenities − .147** (.059) Average of environmental quality indicators − .095* (.050) Age − .0009 (.003) − .0009 (.003) − .0007 (.003) − .0007 (.003) − .0009 (.003) − .0007 (.003) − .0006 (.003) − .001 (.003) − .0005 (.003) − .0008 (.003) − .0005 (.003) Sex (male = 1) .007 (.118) .002 (.116) .001 (.116) .006 (.118) .011 (.117) .007 (.117) .003 (.118) .014 (.118) − .019 (.118) − .002 (.118) − .004 (.117) Income scales (1 = lowest income group; 10 highest income group) − .053** (.026) − .054** (.026) − 0.0013 − 0.001248 − 0.001326 − 0.001377 − 0.00135 − 0.001248 − 0.001118 − 0.001222 − 0.001222 540 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 3 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Marital status (married = 1) .112 (.123) .100 (.124) .121 (.123) .125 (.124) .108 (.123) .106 (.123) .104 (.124) .093 (.124) .087 (.124) .085 (.124) .119 (.124) Education (tertiary education = 1) − .044 (.108) − .035 (.108) − .028 (.108) − .036 (.108) − .028 (.108) − .028 (.108) − .034 (.109) − .027 (.109) − .033 (.109) − .033 (.109) − .036 (.108) Employment status (base group: retired/pensioned, housewife, student and others) Full time employee .085 (.142) .095 (.141) .091 (.141) .105 (.143) .097 (.141) .098 (.142) .100 (.142) .110 (.143) .124 (.143) .114 (.143) .100 (.142) Part time employee .376** (.173) .391*** (.173) .387** (.172) .412** (.175) .373** (.172) .370** (.172) .390** (.174) .389** (.174) .423** (.174) .402** (.174) .409** (.174) Self employed .089 (.163) .095 (.162) .094 (.162) .088 (.163) .090 (.162) .098 (.163) .096 (.163) .101 (.163) .116 (.164) .107 (.164) .094 (.162) Unemployed .129 (.182) .157 (.182) .152 (.181) .153 (.182) .122 (.183) .116 (.183) .106 (.183) .120 (.184) .138 (.184) .123 (.184) .156 (.182) Number of children − .032 (.025) − .034 (.025) − .035 (.025) − .036 (.025) − .031 (.025) − .031 (.025) − .032 (.025) − .029 (.025) − .033 (.025) − .030 (.025) − .036 (.025) Religious person − .017 (.115) − .014 (.115) − .021 (.115) − .019 (.115) − .015 (.115) − .001 (.116) − .003 (.116) .024 (.117) .005 (.117) .013 (.117) − .021 (.115) Political actions .007 (.056) .008 (.056) .014 (.056) .013 (.056) .014 (.056) .013 (.056) .012 (.056) .014 (.056) .012 (.056) .010 (.056) .014 (.056) 541 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 3 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Free choice and control over lives (1–10 scale) .029 (.021) .028 (.021) .026 (.021) .026 (.021) .028 (.021) .029 (.021) .030 (.021) .028 (.021) .027 (.021) .029 (.021) .026 (.021) Believe in income equality (1–10 scale) .017.(014) .015 (.015) .019 (.0149) .017 (.014) .018 (.015) .018 (.014) .016 (.015) .017 (.014) .016 (.015) .015 (.015) .018 (.015) Constant − .804*** (.261) − .786 *** (.264) − .947*** (.256) − .790*** (.254) − .921*** (.260) − .911*** (.254) − .853*** (.260) − .863*** (.254) − .738*** (.268) − .738*** (.268) − .843*** (.256) Number of observations 1,034 1,033 1,033 1,034 1,033 1,032 1,032 1,029 1,025 1,026 1,033 Wald chi2 21.18 19.5 16.13 21.95 16.26 17.1 19.19 18.32 21.32 21.12 18.99 Robust standard errors in parentheses *p < 0.10 **p < 0.05 ***p < 0.01 542 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 children, and political actions are not significant determinants of respondents’ preference for revolution (refer to columns 1–10 of Table2).3 For the full Iraq sample, similar to the results in Egypt, we observe that the coefficient of average of amenities and environmental quality indicators are negatively and significantly associated with support for revolutionary action (see column 10 of Table3).4 We also find that the taste for revolt is significantly lower among Iraqi respondents who are more satisfied with the roads and highways, schools, quality of water, and physical setting of cities in Iraq (see columns 2, 3, 5, 8, and 9 of Table3). 4.2 Sub‑sample analyses Given the fact that most revolutions began in urban areas and large cities, which is a major contributor to political change (Glaeser & Steinberg, 2017), we check if the results of the full sample analyses are driven by respondents in urban areas and large cities. Glaeser and Steinberg (2017) provide historical and empirical evidence that urbanization and large cities can have an important impact on political change processes, mainly because "cities facilitate coordinated public action and enhance the effectiveness of uprisings" (p. 58). Tables4 and 5 present the results for Egypt when we run separate regressions for urban areas (Panel A of Table4), rural areas (Panel B of Table4), large cities (Panel A of Table5), and small cities and rural areas (Panel B of Table5). As evident from the estimations, the association between individuals’ satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality and the taste of revolt only exists for the urban areas and large cities of Egypt.5 Tables6 and 7 present the results for Iraq when we run separate regressions for urban areas (Panel A of Table6), rural areas (Panel B of Table6), large cities (Panel A of Table7), and small cities and rural areas (Panel B of Table7). Similar to the findings for Egypt, we find that the relationship between satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators and the taste of revolt is statistically significant only in the large cities and urban areas of Iraq.6 4 Based on the average marginal effects results (available upon request), a one-unit increase in this index is associated with a decline of 4 pp in the taste for revolution among Iraqis, which is comparable to the results from Egypt. 5 For example, based on average marginal effects results (available upon request), a one-unit increase in satisfaction with average of amenities and environmental quality indicators is associated with a decline of 7.5 pp in support of revolutionary actions in urban areas of Egypt. 6 A one-unit increase in satisfaction with average of amenities and environmental quality indicators is associated with a decline of 4.2 pp in predicted probability of supporting revolution in urban areas of Iraq. 3 We have also estimated the average marginal effect (available upon request). The results show that satisfaction with quality of air, for example, has the largest effect. A one-unit increase in this aspect of satisfaction reduces the support for revolutionary actions by 3.1 percentage points (pp), controlling for other factors. The decreasing effect in other statistically significant satisfaction dimensions are also close to 3 pp. Also, a one-unit increase in average of amenities and environmental quality indicators is associated with a reduction of 3.9 pp in demand for revolutionary actions. Thus, a move from very dissatisfied (score of 1) to very satisfied (score of 4) is associated with about 12 pp decline in predicted probability of supporting revolutionary actions in Egypt. 543 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 4 Results of Probit regressions for Egypt (urban vs. rural areas) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Panel A: urban areas of Egypt The public transportation systems − .255*** (.079) The roads and highways − .219*** (.080) The schools − .088 (.079) The quality of air − .187** (.081) The quality of water − .088 (.069) The quality of health care −.146* (.079) The quality of housing − .159** (.081) Beauty construction na The beauty of physical setting of city − .121 (.082) 544 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 4 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators − .301*** (.103) Average of amenities .304*** (.104) Average of environmental quality indicators − .167** (.081) Control variables Included Included Included Included Included Included Included na Included Included Included Included Number of observations 440 443 437 442 443 441 443 na 443 432 432 442 Wald chi2 35.06 35.8 26.63 32.11 27.53 29.37 28.36 na 27.86 34.58 34.04 30.96 Panel B: rural areas of Egypt The public transportation systems .051 (.078) The roads and highways .004 (.078) 545 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 4 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) The schools − .012 (.078) The quality of air − .048 (.074) The quality of water − .076 (.065) The quality of health care − .007 (.072) The quality of housing − .043 (.074) Beauty construction na The beauty of physical setting of city .092 (.085) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators − .010 (.097) Average of amenities .029 (.099) 546 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 4 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of environmental quality indicators − .077 (.075) Control variables Included Included Included Included Included Included Included na Included Included Included Included Number of observations 523 525 522 525 524 525 525 na 525 519 520 524 Wald chi2 69.24 69.04 69.9 69.41 68.86 69.05 69.4 na 68.23 69.44 69.57 69.16 Robust standard errors in parentheses *p < 0.10 **p < 0.05 ***p < 0.01 553 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 6 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) The schools − .031 (.082) The quality of air − .111 (.090) The quality of water − .140 (.089) The quality of health care − .004 (.094) The quality of housing − .095 (.085) Beauty construction − .132 (.097) The beauty of physical setting of city − .043 (.097) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators − .152 (.122) Average of amenities − .117 (.120) 554 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 6 (continued) Dependent variable: support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of environmental quality indicators − .161* (.098) Control variables na Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Number of observations 293 292 293 293 293 292 293 293 291 293 293 Wald chi2 19.99 19.51 22.01 21.99 19.15 21.3 23.97 19.16 22.16 23.27 23.27 Robust standard errors in parentheses *p < 0.10 **p < 0.05 555 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 7 Results of Probit regressions for Iraq (large cities vs. others) Dependent variable: Support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Panel A: large cities The public transportation systems na The roads and highways − 0.097* (0.051) The schools − 0.129* (0.053) The quality of air − 0.024 (0.051) The quality of water − 0.111** (0.056) The quality of health care − 0.076 (0.055) The quality of housing − 0.056 (0.055) Beauty construction − 0.076 (0.054) The beauty of physical setting of city − 0.121** (0.053) 556 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 7 (continued) Dependent variable: Support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators − 0.162** (0.072) Average of amenities − 0.164** (0.070) Average of environmental quality indicators − 0.079 (0.060) Control variables na Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Number of observations na 741 741 740 741 740 740 739 736 734 735 740 Wald chi2 na 20.60 21.49 16.01 20.02 16.84 16.54 17.14 20.23 21.11 21.30 17.89 Panel B: others The public transportation systems na The roads and highways -0.079 (0.086) 557 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… Table 7 (continued) Dependent variable: Support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) The schools -0.031 (0.082) The quality of air -0.111 (0.090) The quality of water -0.140 (0.089) The quality of health care -0.004 (0.094) The quality of housing -0.095 (0.085) Beauty construction -0.132 (0.097) The beauty of physical setting of city -0.043 (0.097) Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators -0.152 (0.122) Average of amenities − 0.117 (0.120) 558 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Table 7 (continued) Dependent variable: Support for revolutionary action (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Average of environmental quality indicators − 0.161* (0.098) Control variables na Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Included Number of observations na 293 292 293 293 293 292 293 293 291 291 293 Wald chi2 na 19.99 19.51 22.01 21.99 19.15 21.30 23.97 19.16 22.16 21.35 23.27 Robust standard errors in parentheses *p < 0.10 **p < 0.05 559 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… 4.3 The mediating role oflife satisfaction onthelink betweensatisfaction withamenities andenvironmental quality indicators andpreference ofrevolt In the hypothesis development section, we argue that satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators may affect support for revolution through individuals’ life satisfaction. In this subsection, we examine whether individuals’ life satisfaction mediates the relationship between satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators and preference for revolt. Panels A and B of Fig.1 show the mediator models for Egypt and Iraq, respectively. For both countries, there is a negative and significant relationship between the "Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators" and "Support for revolutionary action." Additionally, the "Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators" and "Life satisfaction" are positively correlated, as expected. Finally, the coefficient of "Life satisfaction" is negative and significant when we use "Support for revolutionary action" as a dependent variable. Fig. 1 Mediation effect: life satisfaction as a mediating variable. Note Robust standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. The links between “average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “Life satisfaction” is estimated by OLS with robust standard errors. The links between “Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “life satisfaction” and “support for revolutionary action” is estimated by probit regression with robust standard errors 560 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 Therefore, we can conclude that there is partial mediation, meaning that the relationship between satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators and support for revolutionary action is mediated by life satisfaction. In terms of the type of mediation, our results clearly show that complementary mediation occurs because the product of the direct effect and indirect effect (multiplication of three coefficients) is positive (Hair etal., 2021). 4.4 The mediating role ofsatisfaction withthegovernment onthelink betweensatisfaction withamenities andenvironmental quality indicators andpreference forrevolt In sub-Sect.4.3, we examine the mediating role of life satisfaction on the relationship between satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators and support for revolution. However, it can be argued that satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators first affects satisfaction with the government, which then affects preference for revolt. To test this hypothesis, we use the following question in the WVS survey: “I am going to ask a number of questions related to the current government’s performance. How would you evaluate the performance of the current government in… [The way the government performs its duties in national office]”. Respondents are asked to choose from the options of (1) Completely dissatisfied, (2) Rather dissatisfied, (3) Rather satisfied, and (4) Completely satisfied. Panels C and D of Fig.1 present the mediator models for Egypt and Iraq, respectively. The results for Egypt show that satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality indicators affects support for revolutionary action through satisfaction with the government (see Panel C of Fig.2). Given the findings shown in Panel A of Fig.1, it can be concluded that life satisfaction and satisfaction with the government play mediating roles in Egypt’s case. However, in the case of Iraq (see Panel D of Fig.2), the analyses suggest that satisfaction with the government does not mediate the link between the “Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “Support for revolutionary action”. Given the findings shown in Panel B of Fig.1, we can conclude that only life satisfaction plays a mediating role in the Iraq sample. 4.5 The mediating role ofsatisfaction withgovernment provision ofutilities (fuel, water, electricity, gas, sanitation) onthelink betweensatisfaction withamenities andenvironmental quality indicators andpreference ofrevolt In addition to analyzing the mediating role of satisfaction with the government, we also test if satisfaction with government provision of utilities can explain the association between individuals’ satisfaction with amenities and environmental quality and support for revolutionary action. This measure may capture the satisfaction with government performance more precisely, as far as the amenities and environmental quality are concerned. We use the following question in the WVS survey: “I am going to ask a number of questions related to the current government’s performance. How would you evaluate the performance of the current government in… [Provision 561 1 3 Does satisfaction withamenities andenvironment influence… of utilities (fuel, water, electricity, gas, sanitation)]”. Respondents are asked to choose from the options of (1) Completely dissatisfied, (2) Rather dissatisfied, (3) Rather satisfied, and (4) Completely satisfied. Panels E and F of Fig.3 present the mediator models for Egypt and Iraq, respectively. 5 Conclusion Using recent WVS7 data and Probit regressions, we find that individuals who are more dissatisfied with amenities and environmental quality tend to have a stronger inclination toward revolution in in Egypt and Iraq. This result is particularly evident in urban areas, especially in large cities, compared to rural areas and small cities in both countries. In Egypt, dissatisfaction with public transportation systems, roads and highways, air quality, and housing quality are positively and significantly associated with individuals’ preference for revolution. In Iraq, Fig. 2 Mediation effect: satisfaction with the government as a mediating variable. Note Robust standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Thes link between “Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “satisfaction with government” is estimated by OLS with robust standard errors. The links between “average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “satisfaction with government” and “support for revolutionary action” is estimated by probit regression with robust standard errors 562 M.R.Farzanegan, H.F.Gholipour 1 3 individuals dissatisfied with roads and highways, water quality, school quality, and the physical setting of cities tend to prefer revolutionary actions. Our findings can inform policymakers on how to reduce the likelihood of revolutionary actions by their citizens. For example, traffic congestion is a significant problem in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA), which is home to over 20 million people (approximately 1/5 of Egypt’s population). According to the World Bank (2014), traffic congestion has a considerable and negative impact on the economy and citizens’ quality of life by decreasing labor productivity, increasing fuel consumption and wear and tear on vehicles, emitting harmful pollutants, decreasing air quality, raising transportation costs for businesses, and making the GCMA an unappealing location for businesses and industry. The World Bank (2014) suggests that the government can overcome traffic challenges by implementing corridor management schemes, strengthening the GCMA regulatory authority’s capacity and authority, introducing traffic-related charges (to rationalize traveling behavior), and investing more to expand the transit network. Fig. 3 Mediation effect: satisfaction with government provision of utilities as a mediating variable. Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. The links between “Average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “satisfaction with government’s provision of utilities” is estimated by OLS with robust standard errors. The links between “average of amenities and environmental quality indicators” and “satisfaction with government’s provision of utilities” and “support for revolutionary action” is estimated by probit regression with robust standard errors