Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania

Neguţ, Silviu; di Comite, Luigi; Neacşu, Marius-Cristian Article Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic Journal Provided in Cooperation with: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies Suggested Citation: Neguţ, Silviu; di Comite, Luigi; Neacşu, Marius-Cristian (2010) : Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania, Amfiteatru Economic Journal, ISSN 2247-9104, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Vol. 12, Iss. 28, pp. 576-593 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/168699 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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THE CASE OF ROMANIA∗ Silviu Neguţ1, Luigi di Comite2 and Marius-Cristian Neacşu3∗∗ 1) 3) Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania 2) Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy Abstract The purpose of this study is to initially identify, at an exploratory level, an immigration model in Romania, with a special focus on economic immigration. It is well known that Romania, although source country, on our continent (Spain, Italy, Belgium, France etc.), as well as on the American (Canada, U.S.A) or the Australian one, with a negative migratory balance rate, after joining the European Union, it will become in the near future a destination country, especially for „economic immigrants”. The natural population deficit with which Romania is currently confronted, the labour market imbalances (the low level of participation of the current population in the productive process and the high number of Romanians working abroad) and the experience of older European Union members support the idea. As such, the analysis of social and economical risks that rising immigration will bring on the Romanian society is rather interesting and the applicative uses reside in identifying risk management solutions, in the context of formulating specific policies for immigration management. Keywords: immigration, foreign labour force, Romania, European Union JEL Classification: J61 Introduction Immigration’s issue is quite complex and attractive for any researcher, through all components it involves, requiring an interdisciplinary analysis, from the geographical, demographic, economic aspects of the phenomenon, up to the psychological and sociological ones etc. And, in Romania, even though, at the present moment, a source country supplier of emigrants, especially for the European countries from the West of the ∗ This article represents a synthesis of the seminar held at Università degli Studi di Bari (Facoltà di Scienze Politiche, www.dssm.uniba.it/eventi/seminari_convegni_2009.htm) and at Università Politecnica delle Marche (Facoltà di Economia “Giorgio Fuà”) on the theme of Romanian migration, within the cycles of seminars entitled “Population, development and environment/Popolazione, sviluppo e ambiente”. ∗∗ Corresponding author, Marius-Cristian Neacşu – [email protected]. Economic Interferences AE Vol XII • No. 28 • June 2010 577 continent, being as well acknowledged as far as permanent emigrations are concerned, Germany1 with about 3 026 Romanian citizens in average per year who have definitively changed their residence during the period 1990-2007 (NIS 2003, 2008), Italy (2 382), Austria (1 274) and France (884), Italy and Spain2 becoming traditional as far as temporary emigration of the labour force goes, immigration started to become a reality shown in full, reflecting a demographic phenomenon which is deployed in view of at least three realities: • the obvious tendencies towards a demographic crisis; • the disequilibrium of the labour market; • the quality of member of the European Union and the tendencies of economic growth. All this are reinforced by the experience of ex-communist countries as well, countries from the East of Central Europe that have composed the first “wave” of adhesion (May 2004), among which some countries have already known the change of the migration sense, from source countries in destination countries, the examples of Czech Republic (0,97 ‰), Hungary (0,87 ‰), Slovenia (0,52 ‰), Slovakia (0,30 ‰)3, and Poland already signing in 2007 a bilateral agreement with India in order to bring foreign workers (Voicu & all, 2008. p. 9). Examples of older members of the European Union are also known, such as Spain and Italy which have passed from negative values of the migration rate to positive ones, thus currently forming receiving labour pools. Tendencies are obvious even in Romania which has known a considerable decrease of migration rate’s value, from strongly negative values in 1990 (- 4,04 ‰)4 to balanced values nowadays, with small oscillations around the 0 value, both in the negative and positive spectrum, in 2008 the net migration rate reaching the value of – 0,13 ‰ (Figure no. 1). -2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 1 991 1 992 1 993 1 994 1 995 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 0/00 Figure no. 1: Net migration rate, Romania (1991-2007) Source: National Institute of Statistics (Statistical Yearbook, 2003, 2008) 1 The average refers only to Romanian ethnics, thus excepting “the exodus of German ethnics” in the years following 1990 (if in 1990 over 60 000 Romanian citizens of German ethnicity definitively left the country, in 2007 the number of this ones was only of...12). The situation of Hungarian ethnics is similar, as they have permanently emigrated from Romania, from over 11 000 to 167 during the years mentioned above, 1990, respectively 2007 (NIS, 2003, 2008). 2 Outside Europe, another important labour pool for the Romanian emigrants is constituted by AngloSaxon North America (U.S.A with an average of 2 439 emigrants per year and Canada with 1 827). 3 According to World Fact Book 2009. 4 The Statistical Yearbook of Romania, 2008. AE Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic 578 The general framework exposed above constitutes an excellent background in order to try a deepened scientific analysis of the immigrationist phenomenon in Romania, considering all the extremely important consequences that the new-comers have in modifying the population structure, in general, and the quantitative and qualitative modifications as far as autochthonous labour force goes, in particular, to which one can add other social, economic, cultural, effects and so on. The applicative valences of the current study can also be found when preparing a theoretical and scientific framework which along with other studies (such as those realised by the Soros Foundation from Romania: Şerban & Toth, 2007; Voicu & all, 2008; Comşa & all, 2008 etc.) legitimate, in the near future, concrete and coherent policies from the authorities when dealing with the regulation of this reality which currently surpasses the phase of tendency and puts itself across in a phenomenological and territorial reality, when referring to its manifestation. 1. Scientific Approach/Methods The methodological aspects which endorse the realization of this exploratory study sketch at least two dimensions of the faced issues: the former – a conceptual one, the latter, a consequence of the first one – the statistic one. In the first case, the fact that the term „immigrant” has suffered numerous mutations nowadays, must be mentioned: starting from the idea of a permanent sitting (or at least on a long term) in a particular space, with the change of the residence, towards the one of willing movement/mobility (favoured by the globalization of transports), with an incredible variety of shapes, types and subtypes. If in the traditional sense of the concept „migration” (permanent change of residence) one may found situations such as family reunions, the family formation and repatriations or return migration, in the second sense, namely the one of mobility rather than a permanent sitting or one on a long term, there are listed, as a relatively recent tendency, temporary labour migrants – a cheap labour force (households, constructions, agriculture, hotel or catering services) or one highly specialized, seasonal, trans-boundary or labour tourists or moreover one of petty traders (Salt, 2001, p. 4). At this ones one can add those who study, working holidaymakers or groups who need temporary protection, refugees, those who ask for political asylum etc. All these forms suffer a strong capacity of translation between them – a student who studies abroad can marry and take a permanent job in the country where he has finished his studies (the case of Moldavian students or of other nationality in Romania), an applicant for asylum can establish in the adoptive country (communist dissidents) and an economic immigrant can come back in the origin country in a certain circumstance (the case of Romanian workers from Spain and Italy sacked because of the economic crisis etc.). The terminological complexity and the semantic mutations from the field of migration reflect in the statistic gaps, both at a quantitative and qualitative level: inappropriate methods of collecting data in comparison to the real situation, unharmonized aggregations and standardizations in Europe, although considerable progress has been made in this matter through the emergence of a series of comparative tables at a continental level in publications such as reports from the Council of Europe, reports SOPEMI of the OECD, data from EUROSTAT etc. Economic Interferences AE Vol XII • No. 28 • June 2010 579 However, at a micro territorial level, as far as the case of Romania is concerned, the situation is even worse. Thus, the Yearbooks elaborated by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), has recorded for the first time the rubric „immigrants” starting with 1991, in two phases: in the last decade of the years ’90 they recorded a single category of immigrants who established their residence here – the repatriated, the rubric “immigrants” barely showing up in the yearbooks following the year 2000 and recording only foreigners who own a permanent residence in Romania. The situation is much more complicated by the illegal immigration5 (persons who stay or work illegally in Romania, human trafficking etc.) phenomenon of great amplitude, that alter the accuracy of data. For example, Chinese immigrants, according to data recorded statistically at the National Institute, are limited to no more than several thousand persons, their number being in fact of several tens of thousands. All these because NIS only records the permanent changes of residence, this involving only the immigrants who have a permanent residence in Romania. In this respect, data has been harmonized with the one of Ministry of Administration and Interior, MAI), through the specialized structure from its subordination – Romanian Office for Immigration (created in 2007!) through the restructuration of the Authority for Foreigners and of he National Office for the Refugees) which hold an evidence of all foreigners in Romania who stay in the country for more than 120 days. All in all, the current study consists of interpreting the data recorded directly by NIS and by MAI and the one compiled from different studies that carried out qualitative research (such as those of Soros Foundation from Romania). 2. Considerations regarding immigration to Romania in post-communist period In order to thoroughly understand the immigrationist phenomenon in Romania, an analytical point of view as far as its dynamics in time goes is necessary and furthermore as far as socio-economical, cultural and politic contexts specific to each level are concerned. The collapse of the communist system meant: • on one hand the “liberalization” of migration, a natural consequence of the exacerbated control of the migrational process before 1990, when emigration was resumed to “fleeing from the country” (the demand of politic asylum abroad) with considerable risks for the ones who were caught (severe punishment, including the capital one, the pursuit of the family remained in the country and reprisals over it), or to “population transfers” under strict inter-governmental agreement (the ’80s), regarding the representatives of certain ethnical minorities (Germans, Jewish, Hungarians) or the dispatch of a small number of workers in a preferential regime (countries with which the regime from Bucharest used to develop certain political and economic relationships), under a rigorous control of 5 The debates focused on the terminology centered on this type of migration sketches a series of expressions very closed as a sense, considering the organism or the institution that monitors the phenomenon and that accompanies this type of mobility – „illegal” (European Union, a part of the governments such as the one of UK, a part of the mass-media) „irregular” (International Labour Organisation, International Organisation for Migration, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Global Commission for International Migration), „undocumented” (NGOs), „unauthorised” (Home Office –Immigration and Passports Department from Great Britain), IPPR, 2006, p. 6. AE Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic 580 communist authorities (programs developed in the ’70s with the German Democratic Republic, countries from Africa or the Middle-East) and on the other hand: • the emergence of some new specific institutions reglementing migration, such as Labour Force Migration Office created in 2002. As far as immigration in Romania is concerned, it was restrained enough as a volume, during the communist regime and it used to consist almost exclusively of accepting, under strict control, youngsters from African countries (Nigeria, Sudan, Algeria, Libya and so on) and from Arabic countries (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq) or from other countries from the Persian Gulf (Iran) to study in Romanian public universities (being recognized in the collective memory as “the foreign students from Medicine”6), for whom they constituted an important source of income or of accepting a restrained number of persons within “exchange programs for workers”. At the beginning of the’90s, with the passing to the market economy, the change of the political regime and the bailment of freedom of movement of the population through the new Constitution, the second component of migration in Romania individualises and develops, namely, the immigration which taking into account its characteristics, chronologically records at least three major phases (Figure no. 2): • repatriations and “business” immigration (small investors) • transit immigration • immigration of cheap labour force. Figure no. 2: Net immigration rate, Romania (1991-2007) Source: National Institute of Statistics (Statistical Yearbook, 2003, 2008) 6 In 1981, there were recorded in Romania 16 900 foreign students, representing approximatively 78% from the total of students (SOPEMI 1994, available at www.focus-migration.de/ Romania.2515.0.html?&L=1). Economic Interferences AE Vol XII • No. 28 • June 2010 581 Repatriations and “business immigration” (1990-1995). They represent the components that define a major phase of immigration in Romania, manifesting in the first postcommunist years, starting with 1990. A part of those who have emigrated “illegally” during the communist regime, are coming back to their families, in their countries, between 1 000 and 2 000 of those who came back being of average age (26-50 years), with a considerable proportion of women in 1990 (63,7 %, in the following years the flow input of men being obvious) and what is more, being recorded annually. This characteristic is individualized by the origin countries of those who come, as there are economically developed countries such as Germany (a quarter of the immigrants flow from that period deriving from here), Austria or France. For example, from the total of those came in 1994, the most emanated from Germany (228 persons), Austria (121 persons), USA (80 persons), France (79 persons), the Republic of Moldova (62 persons), Hungary (60 persons) and Israel, 31 persons (Constantin, 2004, p. 65). Besides these ones, at the beginning of the transition period, there was recorded a small number of immigrants coming to Romania in order to develop some businesses, mainly in the services (the en-gross and en-detail commerce), constructions and realties, on the background of a legislation, on one hand shortcoming and on the other hand encouraging and stimulating as far as investments were concerned. As for the origin countries, the “business” immigrants, this small investors who came to Romania at the beginning of ’90s, were especially from China (commercial activities), Turkey (services and realties) and the Arabic countries – Syria, Lebanon and so on, in the last mentioned activity sectors (Lăzăroiu, 2003, p. 4), totalizing together about 25% (Figure no. 3). Austria 14% USA 9% Germany 25% France 9% R. of Moldova 7% Hungary 7% Others 25% Israel 4% Figure no. 3: The structure of immigrants by source country, Romania (1994) Source: National Institute of Statistics (Statistical Yearbook, 2003, 2008) Transit immigration (1996-2002). Starting with 1996, year which marks both the change of political power at Bucharest and the coming at government of a centre-right coalition (the anterior one had been of left), in the plan of immigration a sudden growth of values towards anterior period is recorded, the number of those who came to Romania augmenting from about 2 000 to 10 000-12 000 persons per year and over, the biggest part (approximately 75%) deriving especially from the Republic of Moldova (Figure no. 4) in comparison to 7 % during the period 1991-1996. AE Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic 582 Figure no. 4: The ratio between immigrants of R. of Moldova and total (1991-2005) Source: Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut, 2007, p. 4 As for the immigrants from the countries situated in the Central and Western Europe, the weight of this ones starts to diminish after 1996, reaching medium values (calculated in the interval 1997-2002) of 3,8 % in the case of those who came from Germany, 2 % (Austria), 2,5 % (Hungary), 1,5 % (France)7, while the weight of those who came from USA has decreased to 2,6 % in the interval above-mentioned and of the ones from Israel to 1,3 %. The big weight as a total and the historical particularities confer to immigration from the Republic of Moldova a special status, namely: the nowadays territory of the Republic has entered in the component part of Romania in various historical periods, being lost after the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact (1939) and the citizens of the republic of Moldova (Romanian ethnicity weighing the most) speak the same language as Romanians, respectively Romanian language, fact for which those who migrate at West of the Prut are considered as repatriated. Moreover, the policies of (re)naturalization of the Moldavian citizens from the Republic8 have massively contributed to a flow of over 8 000 persons per year recorded as immigrants from the Republic of Moldova, during the period 1997-2001. However, a small part of these permanently remain in Romania, mostly being in transit towards the West of Europe. Therefore, a particular situation: Moldavian immigrants are on one hand repatriated (the historical background) and on the other hand they constitute themselves in transit immigrants (the economic background). For example, in 2002, at the end of the 7 For the time interval 1998-2002, the year 997 being the last one when the weight of those who came back to Romania has recorded a big value, namely 14,3 % (according to NIS data). 8 According to Romanian legislation (The law regarding Romanian citizenship from March,1991), the citizens from the Republic of Moldova individualize through a special status, being allowed to ask for Romanian citizenship, even though they hold at the present moment another citizenship and they do not live on the territory of Romania, considering the fact that they are descendents of Romanian ethnics from territories that used to belong to Romania – non-resident dual citizens (Iordachi, 2009, p. 13), in spite of the fact that the legislation from the Republic of Moldova recognized the double citizenship of the Moldavian citizens only since 2002 (Gâsca, 2009, pp. 3-4). Economic Interferences AE Vol XII • No. 28 • June 2010 583 analyzed period, out of the total of Moldavian citizens recorded on the territory of Romania, slightly more than a half (59%) had come for more than one year, for 31% the span of the staying being of less than a year and for 10% even less than three months, the transit tendency being obvious in comparison to the span of staying of Chinese and Syrian immigrants (97% more than a year), Greeks (93 %), Turkish (91 %)9, for whom Romania used to be a destination country, developing in it different businesses in services (commerce, alimentation) and realties. The status of EU member of Romania (1st of January 2007) and the introduction of compulsory visas for the citizens from the Republic of Moldova have had as an effect the growth of requests of Romanian citizenship from 200 000 in 2002, to 500 000 in 2006 (the pre-adhesion year), to 80 000 – 1,5 million (according to some forecasts) after the adhesion of the 1st of January 2007, out of a total of 3,8 million, figure that represents the population of the Republic of Moldova (Gâsca, 2009, p. 13). As far as the age structure of the immigrationist flow is concerned in the „Moldavian stage” (1996-2002), one can notice the big weight of youngsters aged under 25, over 30 %, the biggest part coming to studies in Romania (only the capital city Bucharest, famous academic centre, concentrating over 40% from the total of immigrants; the second region is the one of North-East, the attraction pole being the first and the oldest academic centre of the country, the city of Iaşi, at the same time the main polarizing city from the region) and being unwilling to come back in the Republic of Moldova after having completed their studies. The situation is also confirmed by the Ministry of Interior (an adaptation after Zaman & Sandu, 2004, p. 16, table 12), for the same period, pupils and students representing 30 % out of the total of immigrants, with whom, with small weights another professional categories were marked out: specialists for technical assistance in different domains (7,5 %), humanitarian personnel (4,3 %), professors and trainers (0,9 %); this shy beginning of export of highly qualified personnel towards Romania, temporary or permanent, such as the mentioned authors disclose, was mostly due to foreign direct investments and to the development of the business environment, also to the breakthrough of the multinationals on the Romanian market or to the growth of the consultancy services sector . Immigration of the cheap labour force (2002-present). After 2002, the flow of immigrants records a temporary decrease from over 10 000 comers annually during the period 19982001, 3 000 (in the interval 2003-2005), growing afterwards up to approximately 10 000 (2007). Furthermore, important mutations are registered even in the flow structure, depending on the origin country. Thus, even though, those from the Republic of Moldova remain predominant as far as the number of persons coming annually in Romania is concerned, their weight in the total records a negative dynamics, from almost 80 % in 2002 to less than a half, respectively 42 % in 2007. Big growths as weight register instead the Italians (their percentage growing, namely from 1,4 % in 2002 to 8,8 % in 2007), North-Americans (USA and Canada), from 5,4 % to 7,7 % and the immigrants from the countries in the Near and the Middle East, such as Turkish (from 0,5 % to 5,5 %), Syrians (from 0,2 % to 2,4 %), Lebanese (from no settle of residence in the territory of Romania in 2002 to 1,7 %), Iranians and Iraqi (to 1,5 %, respectively 1,3 % in 2007) at which one can add Chinese with 9 According to NIS data AE Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic 590 capacity of applying for projects financed through European funds as far as human resource is concerned and the large interval of implementation. Analyzing the natural and migrating deficit of Romania in comparison to the necessity of economic development in the EU some visible distortions individualise on the labour force local market: • the need of replacing the emigrated labour force: with workers from the “black market” or with immigrants, especially outside the European Union, who are attracted by bigger wages comparatively with those received in the origin country but also by the “EU mirage”, Romania also being an entrance gate on the EU’s territory. • inconsistency between some major infrastructure projects with entrepreneurs from Spain, Portugal which seemed to be impressive during the years 2006-2007 (the years of “boom” for the domain of constructions in Romania),counting on the cheap local labour force. However, because of the severe shortage of the workforce, Romanian manufacturers used to work (destiny’s irony?), among others even in Spain (Silaşi and Simina, 2007, pp. 189-190); this fact induces the same tendency of orientation towards foreign workers outside the community. Nevertheless, starting with 2008, constructions’ stagnation produced “naturally”, through the manifestation of the financial crisis that affected almost the entire Northern Hemisphere. • on the long term, certain projections show that in 2022 the weight of immigrants in the local labour force will grow only with 1,8% in comparison to 2002 (9,8% in 2052), the most reduced growth comparatively with other EU members (Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovak Republic with weights of 2-3%, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Hungary with 67%), the average in EU-27 being of 7% (Kaczmarczyk and Okólski, 2005, p. 27, Table 4). Conclusions The analysis of migration in Romania, a phenomenon that has manifested mostly after the collapse of the communist system (also the first year in which statistic recordings of those immigrated in Romania show up, with a total change of residence being in 1991), has lead to the following conclusions: • immigration in Romania respects the patterns of the one with each older members of the European Union have initially confronted at the adhesion moment; Even though the period in which the phenomenon of immigration has been recorded is short, the emigrational model seems to be the same: the predominance of the economic immigration (the other forms: post-academic studies, family reunions, solicitants of political asylum) subscribing to it. As long as the „EU mirage” will be deployed, Romania, taking a look at the experience of other countries, but also due to the effectuated analysis, shall transform from a source country into a destination one for the labour force migration (in a legal, semi-legal or illegal regime). Among the particularities regarding immigration in Romania there are inscribed: the status of immigrants from the Republic of Moldova and the case of Romanian citizenship together with the return migration. • the emigrational phenomenon is rather an independent manifestation; Economic Interferences AE Vol XII • No. 28 • June 2010 591 The territorial mobility of population, as a long term process, acts rather as a thermodynamic system, individualizing an equilibrium between the two conditions, forces: one of attraction, one of rejection, generically called “push” and “pull factors”, no matter if there are some prohibitive measures that stimulate rather the illegal immigration. • at least three realities which manifest nowadays indicate the fact that Romania will be faced in the near future with a demographic crisis, with strong distortions on the labour force market; These are: - the natural deficit of population that followed the „normalization” of birth rate (a consequence of the strict legislation regarding the ban of abortion from the communist period) and the disequilibrium which will appear between the generation of the ’70s (retired) and the generations after 1991, much more reduced (the active population) in a quite near future. - the economic emigration in the post-communist period has lead to disequilibria on the local market of labour force, approximately 1,5 million inhabitants emigrating (a third of the active population), certain sectors confronting with serious deficits in this sense (for example, constructions). This situation at which it is also added - the quality of European Union member and the tendencies of economic growth, will lead sooner or later to earnestly consider the solutions of importing labour force. • the translation of immigration from the transit immigration to the permanent one; There is noticed the growth of long-term staying in detriment of those on short term, in the last years. • immigration in Romania still has an individual character; The migration networks are in an incipient phase of development, being based on the first immigrants who bring their friends, families. Much more developed are the webs whose activity object is constituted by human trafficking. • Romania must elaborate clear policies regarding immigration. The gaps generated by the lack of programs and policies in the domain of immigration generate certain problems in the interaction with the labour market from Romania, at which one can add the cultural context, to a certain extent the tolerant attitude generally shown to foreigners by the Romanian society as a whole, making up for it. What is more, assuming the role of Eastern frontier of the European Union will generate a restrictive framework as far as the attitude goes when dealing with the granting of visas of staying and generally a stricter control of illegal migration, in parallel with the development of a complex management system of this phenomenon (institutions, programs and policies). References: Chindea, A., Majkowska-Tomkin, M., Mattila, H. & Pastor, I., 2008. Migration in Romania: A Country Profile 2008. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM). AE Immigration – Socio-economical Implications. The Case of Romania Amfiteatru Economic 592 Coleman, D., 2008. 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