New Imperialism or New Capitalism?

Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon Preprint New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Provided in Cooperation with: The Bichler & Nitzan Archives Suggested Citation: Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon (2004) : New Imperialism or New Capitalism?, The Bichler and Nitzan Archives, Toronto, http://bnarchives.yorku.ca/124/ This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/157822 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. 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If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under a license identical to this one. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you get permission from the copyright holder. Link to the full legal code ABSTRACT Over the past century, the institution of ‘capital’ and the process of its ‘accumulation’ have been fundamentally transformed. By contrast, the theories that explain this institution and process have remained largely unchanged. The purpose of this mimeograph is to address this mismatch. Using a broad brush, we outline a new, power theory of capital and accumulation. We use this theory to assess the changing meaning of the corporation and the capitalist state, the new ways in which capital gets accumulated and the specific historical trajectory of twentieth-century capitalism up to the present. New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler 1 Montreal and Jerusalem, December 2004 www.bnarchives.net 1. THE U-TURN The early years of the twenty first century seem to mark a significant change in global affairs. During the 1980s and 1990s, the world was marching to the tune of ‘neoliberalism,’ or so it seemed. With communism declining and eventually disintegrating, the entire globe finally opened up for business. Military conflict waned, defence spending dropped sharply and the focus shifted from ‘war profits’ to ‘peace dividends.’ The old ideological battles were over. History had ‘ended,’ giving way to a multicultural ‘global village.’ Borders were knocked down, trade and capital mobility soared to unprecedented heights, immigration – legal and illegal – proliferated and tourism became the leading growth sector. Governments the world over deregulated their economies. Privatization was hailed as the new path to ‘efficiency’ and state assets were sold at fire sale prices. Budget deficits were curtailed and ‘sound finance’ became the new orthodoxy. This new trajectory, argued its advocates, created a ‘new economy’ of inflationless growth. High technology and global integration promised a continuous supply-side boom, while cheap labour in ‘emerging markets,’ global ‘competition’ and resolute central bankers assured that the boom would not be spoiled by ‘bottlenecks’ and rising prices. The panacea seemed so secure that most academics abandoned political economy. Instead, they invented a more exciting creature called ‘civil society,’ which they then ‘deconstructed’ with a new anti-philosophy called ‘postmodernism.’ The whole package was given a fashionable logo: ‘globalisation.’ But then in 2001 the trajectory suddenly changed. The wave of cross-border capital flow has subsided and U.S. economic policy has turned from orthodoxy to profligacy. Multilateralism has given way to unilateralism. In issues ranging from the environment to trade agreements to war, the U.S. government seems to be walking its own course. Protectionism is no longer a dirty word, and there is even talk of ‘intracapitalist conflict.’ The promotion of capitalist peace has given way to pre-emptive 1 Shimshon Bichler teaches political economy at universities and colleges in Israel ([email protected]). Jonathan Nitzan teaches political economy at York University in Toronto ([email protected]). Their publications are available from The Bichler & Nitzan Archives (http://www.bnarchives.net). NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? strikes and rising military spending. Oil crises have re-emerged from oblivion and the ghost of stagflation has came back to haunt even the free marketers. And as the world changed, so did the slogans. Talk of ‘free markets’ gave way to theories of ‘terrorism.’ Instead of ‘multiculturalism,’ there was now a ‘clash of civilizations.’ In lieu of ‘competition’ came new ‘crusades’ and ‘infinite wars,’ McJihads against McDonald’s. Analysts of the ‘new economy,’ having lost their rating with the melting stock market, were overtaken by the old pundits of ‘realpolitik’ and ‘national security.’ Why Have the Pundits Got it Wrong? Although the experts have been quick to endorse the U-turn, the truth is that few if any anticipated it and most remain puzzled by its trajectory. What account for this lack of foresight and lingering confusion? How could so many analysts and theorists, both radical and conservative, continue to project neoliberal globalisation when the tide was clearly turning against it? What prevented them from foreseeing the coming bellicosity and the new wars, the rising oil prices, and the returning threat of stagflation? The issue here goes beyond ‘prediction.’ It is not that the experts gave us the wrong answers, but that they failed to ask the right questions. Of the many unasked questions, the most burning concern the institution of capital. The sad fact is that, these days, most of those who write on social affairs – global or local – know little about capital accumulation and care even less. And those who do deal with accumulation – namely the economists, including many Marxists – often use antiquated categories and theories that no longer fit present-day realties. To a large extent, the reason for this neglect lies in the victory of post-modern ‘discourse.’ Post-liberal and post-fascist writers find it more academically lucrative to ‘deconstruct’ issues of ethnicity, culture, religion and gender than to deal with the boring ‘texts’ of political economy. Naturally, this subsidised preference keeps them away from anything remotely connected to capital – their ‘alter’/‘other’ on which they want to know nothing. By contrast, post-Marxists retain the rhetoric of the ‘labour theory of value,’ paying customary tribute to the icons of ‘surplus value,’ ‘exploitation,’ ‘falling tendency of the profit rate,’ and ‘productive capital,’ among others. But these concepts have become sacrosanct deities. Most post-Marxists have lost any desire to question their meaning. Worse still, with ‘texts’ having substituted for reality and the ‘imaginary’ for facts, many post-Marxists increasingly keep their work clean of any trace of empirical research.2 2 A recent Marxist conference in which one of us (Nitzan) was a discussant illustrates the new spirit. I criticized one of the presenters on my panel for dealing with pseudo-facts. She provided a theory for why neoliberalism has made the world more unstable – yet without first demonstrating that the world indeed has grown more unstable. I used several charts with fairly simple indicators for unemployment, growth rates and the stock market to show that the neoliberal period of the 1980s and 1990s was neither more nor less unstable than the earlier 2 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Toward a Different Theory of Accumulation Unfortunately, capital rules the world, perhaps more effectively than ever, so those who ignore it are bound to misunderstand it (although, admittedly, they often continue to enjoy it). Capital also keeps changing, which means that those who do theorize it have to constantly rethink their concepts and to contrast those concepts with the changing reality. The aim of this mimeograph is twofold. We seek to develop a different understanding of what capital is and what constitutes accumulation, and, simultaneously, to use this new concept as a basis for reinterpreting contemporary capitalism, including its present U-turn. To set the stage, we begin in Section 2 by briefly critiquing contemporary explanations of the current U-turn in world affairs. Section 3 argues that the common shortcoming of these explanations lies in their inadequate concepts of ‘value’ based on utility or abstract labour. The consequences of this inadequacy are twofold. First, by leaving the ‘underlying’ units of accumulation ambiguous if not unobservable, the theory is unable to explain what accounts for the ‘observed’ accumulation of money values. Second, by defining value in material terms, the theory keeps political economy inherently bifurcated, with ‘politics’ inherently external to the supposedly ‘economic’ reality of accumulation. Sections 4, 5 and 6 outline an alternative, power theory of value. The theory builds on three related features. First, it emphasizes ‘differential accumulation’ rather than ‘absolute’ accumulation; that is, the augmentation of power measured by relative asset growth rather than the amassment of utility or abstract labour embodied in material objects. Second, it stresses the importance of ‘dominant capital’ groups rather than capital ‘in general’ versus capital ‘in competition’; in so doing it brings to the fore the political power that lies at the very heart of accumulation. And, third, it points to two key ‘regimes of differential accumulation’ that rely on corporate merger (breadth) and stagflation (depth) rather than on green-field growth and price stability. This theory yields a completely different understanding of what constitutes accumulation and how it occurs – not ‘in connection’ to politics, but as the central political process in capitalism. It also offers a ready template for empirical investigation – one that theories of capital based on utility or abstract labour cannot offer. Section 7 examines the twentieth century history of differential accumulation. It identifies the pendulum swings between breadth and depth, as well as the long-term imperative toward the globalisation of ownership and the transnationalization of the capitalist ruling class. Section 8 situates the current U-turn within this framework. It argues that the current wars do not signal a return to old style state-centric ‘imperialism,’ but rather postwar years. My statistical intervention was not challenged. Instead, it was deemed irrelevant: ‘What are facts?!’ lashed back the flabbergasted theorist (yes, in these very words). Facts were time consuming, problematic and ambiguous. Worse still, they were merely ‘constructed’ by rulers to impose their power, so why bother? 3 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? are part of a new cycle of depth accumulation by an increasingly global ‘dominant capital.’ 2. THE CONVENTIONAL CREED The sharp U-turn from ‘growth’ and ‘peace’ to ‘stagflation’ and ‘wars’ has been accompanied by a heated debate. The main contention is ideological. Whereas during the period of the global village the focus was on the costs and benefits of ‘globalisation,’ now that the slogans changed, the dispute centres on the pros and cons of ‘American imperialism.’ Endless effort has been put into concluding that the U-turn has been ‘good’ or ‘bad’ for humanity, depending on the preference. By contrast, far less energy has been spent in arguing basic concepts and establishing simple facts. What do the terms ‘globalisation’ and ‘American imperialism’ precisely mean? Has the world indeed shifted from the former to the latter? How should we quantify the costs and benefits? Who, exactly, pays the cost and who reaps the benefits? Apparently, these are questions that most experts do not feel compelled to investigate too closely, or even ask. Neoliberal Wars Over the past few years, many ‘free market’ strategists have become staunch supporters of the new wars. Their newly-found bellicosity is certainly significant. Until not long ago, most of them believed that peace and prosperity were brought by ‘liberalism’ and ‘democracy’ and that war and poverty were the consequence of ‘Bolshevism,’ ‘socialism’ and other tyrannies. So why the sudden change? It all started with the fall of the Soviet Union. Over night, the world had become ‘unipolar’; unipolar worlds are known for their instability; and instability is known to give strategic experts a change of heart. Presently, the centre of global instability is the Middle East. The region is home to religious fundamentalism, anti-liberal culture and plenty of weapons – conventional and otherwise. The region is also home to two thirds of the world’s oil reserves and one third of its daily output. Previously, superpower rivalry kept the lid on this toxic brew. But now, with the Soviet Union gone, the mix of oil, fanaticism and weapons is simmering, threatening both democracy and neoliberal prosperity. Evidently, the free countries of the world have no choice but to take up arms. The only way to defuse the Middle East threat once and for all is direct military intervention and, if need be, outright conquest. In the now-famous words of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman: ‘For globalization to work, America can’t be afraid to act like the almighty superpower it is. . . . The hidden hand of the market will never work without the hidden fist . . . and the hidden fist that keeps the world safe for Silicon Valley’s technologies is called the US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps’ (1999: 373). And so a new hybrid was born: neoliberal wars. 4 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Radicals were quick to denounce the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – for much the same reason that the new marketeers loved them. For the most part, they, too, accepted that the new wars were part of a neoliberal ‘American imperialism’ – only that, in their view, this imperialism was deplorable since it spelled the continued ‘exploitation’ and ‘oppression’ of the ‘post-colonial’ third world. Unfortunately, few of those who espouse this position seem able to clearly define the concepts they use and show how these concepts explain the way ‘American imperialism’ actually works. Is ‘American imperialism’ a new breed of imperialism, or is it merely the contemporary reincarnation of what earlier took the form of Cold War imperialism, nineteenth-century British imperialism, Islamic imperialism and Roman imperialism? Has there ever been a non-imperial capitalism, or is capitalism simply a form of imperialism? Who exactly are the ‘rulers’ and ‘subjects’ of this imperialism? Is the ‘American state’ in the driver’s seat – and if so, what constitutes that ‘state’? The Federal government? The White House? The Pentagon? The American people? The Western countries? The governments of those countries? The transnational corporations? The IMF and World Bank? Bill Gates? All of the above? Does the ‘American empire’ serve the interest of capital – and if so, what exactly is this 'interest'? Does the 'American Empire' serve capital ‘in general,’ or only one of its ‘fractions’? What criteria should we use to answer these questions? In what sense, precisely, are developing countries ‘exploited’ and ‘oppressed’? By ‘whom’ and to what ‘extent’? by the ‘American empire’? Is China ‘dependent’ on and exploited by the United States, or is it the other way around? How do we decide? Can the labour theory of value help us measure this ‘exploitation’? And if not – how do we know? These questions – once the basic staple of critical Marxism – seem to have disappeared. Few Marxists answer them and even fewer bother to raise them. Have these issues all been settled? Do they no longer matter? Or, perhaps asking them is simply too dangerous for what is now commonly referred to as the Marxist ‘tradition’? The American Empire Ellen Meiksins Wood (2002), for example, confidently defines ‘globalisation’ as the ‘economic imperialism of capital,’ with the United States as its ‘hegemon.’ This new imperialism, she says, no longer has formal colonies and instead leverages itself through a system of sovereign nation states. Indeed, ‘It has, in fact, been a major strategy of capitalist imperialism even to create local states to act as conduits of capitalist imperatives’ (p. 24). Unfortunately, many of these states are not sufficiently integrated into the system, and there is a constant risk that some of them will rebel against the ‘rule of global capital.’ In order to minimize this risk and keep these states subordinated, there is a need for ‘a new doctrine of extra-economic, and especially military coercion.’ And since ‘even US military power cannot be everywhere at once . . . the only option is to demonstrate, by frequent displays of military force, that it can go anywhere at any time, and do great damage.’ Thus, the overriding purpose of waging 5 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? war now, declares Meiksins Wood, is not to conquer new territory as such, but to ‘demonstrate US hegemony’ (pp. 19, 24-26). Many of those who fought hard against colonialism may be surprised to learn that they did so in the interest of the ‘American Empire.’ And the empire certainly seems to be in trouble. In the early 1950s, before academia discovered Gramscian ‘hegemony,’ a planeload of U.S. operatives was enough to topple Mossadegh and establish an Iranian regime friendly to the foreign oil companies. This was the pinnacle. From then on, the yield on U.S. ‘hegemony’ fell rapidly. In the early 1970s, a peasant army kicked the almighty American military out of Vietnam. By the early 2000s, a whole ‘coalition’ of armies, equipped with ‘smart’ weapons, ‘high-tech’ communication and state-of-the-art ‘surveillance’ seems unable to restore even the semblance of order in small peripheral country called Iraq. Contrary to Meiksins Wood’s assertion, the U.S. military cannot ‘go anywhere at any time, and do great damage.’ In fact, with the exception of a surprise nuclear attack, there are very few places it can go to without putting itself at serious risk. Can the U.S. successfully attack China, India, Nigeria, Mexico, Russia, or Brazil? Even small renegade states such as Syria, Iran and North Korea do not seem overly impressed by American threats, while tiny underground militias show little hesitance in attacking U.S. assets around the world. Surely, the United States can ‘conquer’ Grenada, or Haiti. But do such conquests ‘demonstrate US hegemony,’ or are they evidence of American decline? In the 1950s, macroeconomic indicators attested the superpower status of America. The country ran a balanced budget and enjoyed a current account surplus; its commodities flooded the world and it owned one half of the world’s foreign assets; the dollar was unchallenged and the public debt, accumulated mostly during the two world wars, remained stable at around $1 trillion. From the late 1960s onward, though, there has been a marked deterioration in all of these categories. The trade surplus inverted into a growing deficit; the budget balance ballooned into a massive deficit; The ownership of foreign assets by U.S. residents was halved to one quarter of the world total; and government debt rose to over $7.5 trillion – the world’s largest. These developments were accompanied by the collapse of Bretton Woods, the establishment of the G7, the appearance of the Euro and currency baskets and, most recently, a move toward an Asian financial union – all challenges to the U.S. dollar. Informal Empire According to Leo Panitch and Sam Gindin, to characterize ‘imperial decline’ in this way would be grossly misleading. In their view, the ‘American empire,’ like the British Empire in its early development, is largely ‘informal,’ built on the ‘economic and cultural penetration of other states’ and ‘sustained by political and military coordination with other countries’ (2003: 8). In this context, measurements based on formal state boundaries cannot reveal the underlying, informal power secured by interstate penetration. 6 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? was forced, for lack of alternative, to fall back on the ‘reality’ of capital goods, that, in his words, ‘can after all be grasped, touched, and unequivocally defined’ (1985: Vol 2, p. 242). Is there a solution? Can power be incorporated into the Marxist and neoclassical ‘definitions’ of capital? In our view, the answer is negative. Political economy, both mainstream and radical, has been deeply influenced by the mechanical worldview of Kepler, Galileo, Hobbes, Locke, Hume, Leibniz, and, above all, Newton. Following Newton, the basic governing ‘mechanism’ of political economy is ‘equilibrium’ (and its deviant, ‘disequilibrium’). Equilibrium, in turn, requires a common unit, an underlying, immutable ‘substance’ that everything else is made of. In the physical world this basic unit is hydrogen; in the economy, it is ‘abstract labour’ or ‘utility.’ Thus, when Milton Friedman declares that ‘there is no such thing as a free lunch,’ he simply echoes Antoine Lavoisier, the eighteenth century French tax collector who invented the Law of Conservation of Matter. With this Law in mind, political economists, both Marxist and neoclassical, came to believe that there was ‘intrinsic equivalence’ in production and exchange. Abstract labour and utility, like all ‘matter,’ could neither disappear into nor be created out of thin air. For Marx, who approached the process from the input side, the commodity’s value was transformed labour: the live 'abstract labour’ expended in producing the capital ‘reappeared’ as dead ‘abstract labour’ in the newly produced capital. Similarly for the neoclassicists, who view the process from the output side: as the quantity of capital depreciates, the lost utils ‘resurface’ in the goods and services being produced.7 The answer of both theories to the question ‘what is capital?’ lies in this transformation. In both cases, the pecuniary appearance of capital is merely the mirror image of its ‘material’ substance, made of utils or abstract labour. The ‘financial’ liabilities on the right-hand side of the balance sheet derive their value from – and in final analysis, are equivalent to – the ‘productive’ assets on the left-hand asset. This belief makes it clear why both definitions of capital have to exclude power. Given that the institutions of power are qualitative, not quantitative, and since power is considered external to the productive substance of capital, it follows that power can only be ‘related’ to capital, from the ‘outside’. It can never make it into its basic definition. Utility, Abstract Labour, or the Nomos? But what if this belief is wrong? What if intrinsic equivalence does not exist? In order to know one way or the other, we need to be able to measure utils and labour values. We labour without relying on wages. And, so, in their empirical work they continue to use the official, neoclassical statistics, complete with its utilitarian, non-dialectical biases. 7 Of course, in each theory input or output are just the starting point, and the ‘conservation’ continues through subsequent cycles in the input-output chain. 13 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? also need to identify equilibrium (since equivalence does not work in disequilibrium). And, unfortunately, political economists have been able to do neither.8 According to Thorstein Veblen, this inability lies in their failure to comprehend the ‘holistic’ quality of the social process in general and the ‘industrial system’ in particular. In his view, which resembles both Alfred Whitehead’s process philosophy and David Bohm’s hologramic metaphors, social production is a qualitatively changing ‘joint process,’ interleaved over time and space.9 There is no way to objectively ‘unbundle’ this process into a quantitative input-output schema, even on paper, and therefore no way to explain prices by ‘abstract labour’ or ‘utility.’ To illustrate the unbundling problem, try to imagine the entire process, from start to finish, of producing a pharmaceutical drug, a modern automobile, or a Hollywood movie. Even if we could somehow observe and measure utils or abstract labour, still, is there a way of knowing which input ‘contributes’ how much to which output? Do we even know all the ‘inputs’ and all the ‘output’? What is the ‘starting point’ of the production process – say, of an automobile? The excavation of the raw materials? The design of the automobile? The invention of the computer used in that design? The invention of the computer language? Of binary mathematics? Of the zero? How far and to what degree does any one input affect the various possible outputs? For instance, how does modern chemistry ‘feed into’ the production of drugs, automobiles and movies? Can we measure the ‘extent’ of this impact? The truth is that we do not know, and – if Veblen, Whitehead and Bohm are right – we cannot know. We cannot unbundle a ‘package’ whose components could not be specified to begin with.10 8 In order to denote the ‘substance’ of capital in universal units, political economists would need to overcome three obstacles, all of which are insurmountable. First, they would have to explain how we could convert qualitatively different outputs into universal ‘utils’ (in the neoclassical case), or qualitatively different forms of concrete labor into homogenous units of ‘abstract labor’ (in the Marxist case). Second, they would have to identify the particular utils produced by a particular type of capital (neoclassical), or the exact number of abstract labor hours that went (on average) into making a particular type of machine (Marxist). And, third, they would have to show that the capital measurements they came up with were indeed unique; in other words, that the ‘substance’ of a specific factory, when measured as ‘capital,’ has one quantity, and one quantity only. On the impossible ‘conversion’ of quality into quantity, see for example Castoriadis (1984), Nitzan (1989) and Bichler and Nitzan (2001). The issue of input-output indeterminacy was pointed out by Steadman (1975; 1977). The problem of providing a unique measure of ‘real’ capital was first identified by Veblen (1904; 1908c) and Wicksell (1935), and later gave rise to the ‘Cambridge Controversies’ of the 1950s and 1960s (Cf. Robinson 1953-54; Sraffa 1960; Harcourt 1969). 9 Veblen has been forgotten by many older political economists and is totally unknown to most younger ones. His two key books, The Theory of Business Enterprise (1904) and Absentee Ownership (1923), should be made required reading for every student (and teacher) of political economy. On process philosophy, see Whitehead (1978). For the metaphoric use of holograms, see Bohm (1983) and Bohm and Peat (2000). 10 In that sense, Neo-Ricardians attempts to show that the internal contradictions of neoclassical production functions and Marxist value equations were superfluous (cf. Sraffa 1960; Steedman 1977). These latter critiques were logically brilliant and politically expedient. 14 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? So we are back to square one, if not square zero. We still do not know what makes something capital and what determines its magnitude in dollars and cents. Worse still, now we no longer have the principle of ‘intrinsic equivalence’ to build on. Is this rejection not detrimental to the very possibility of political economy? By giving up the ‘material’ basis of capitalism, are we not cutting the branch we sit on? Indeed, is there anything else – other than utility or labour value – with which we can explain the quantitative order of prices, exchange and distribution? The short answer is yes. There is an alternative. According to Cornelius Castoriadis (1984), this alternative was articulated some 2,500 years ago, by Aristotle. Equivalence in exchange, Aristotle argued, came not from anything intrinsic to commodities, but from the nomos. It was rooted not in the ‘material’ sphere of consumption and production, but in the broader social-legal-historical institutions of society. It was not an ‘objective’ substance, but a human creation.11 And when we think about this question without theoretical blinders, this ‘loose’ determination is not that difficult to fathom. Consider the ratio between the price of petroleum and the wages of oil rig workers; between the value of Enron’s assets and the salaries of accountants; between General Electric’s rate of profit and the price of jet engines; between Halliburton’s earnings and the cost of ‘re-building’ Iraq; between Viacom’s taxes and advertisement rates. Why should we insist that these ratios are somehow determined by relative ‘utility’ or relative ‘abstract labour time’? Why should we believe in quanta that could not be shown to ‘exist,’ and that no one – not even those who need to know them in order to set prices – has the slightest idea of what they are? Is it not possible that these ratios are simply the outcome of social struggles and cooperation? Most political economists prefer to stir clear of such ‘loose’ determination. The ideological stakes are simply too high. If prices and distribution were not determined by objective productive contributions, neoclassicists would have nothing with which to explain income and justify profit. Similarly for the Marxists: without labour values there is no objective basis to condemn capitalist ‘exploitation.’ Unfortunately, and as already noted, this insistence on ‘objective’ determination is mostly a formality. In practice, political economists are entirely dependent on a very ‘loose’ determination of prices and distribution. In the neoclassical case, this dependency is evident when economists set up perfectly competitive equilibrium models – and then fit them to reality with the generous help of endless ‘distortions’ (in the know-all language of the news agencies: ‘oil prices have risen because of excess demand from China’; and a day later, ‘despite excess demand from China, oil prices have fallen amid easing security concerns at Ras Tanura’). Marxists do the very same But from a Veblenian perspective they were redundant: in practice, the equations they sought to criticize could not even be written. 11 We are deeply indebted to Akiva Orr for introducing us to the work of Cornelius Castoriadis. Orr carries on the spirit of Castoriadis – both in his activism and in his profound writings on philosophy, history, science and democracy (www.autonarchy.org.il). 15 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? thing when they first articulate the laws of ‘expanded reproduction’ and immediately violate them with the endless mischief of ‘force,’ ‘manipulation’ and ‘accumulation by dispossession.’ Now, this mixture of ‘hard’ and ‘loose’ determination would be scientifically acceptable if we could somehow draw the line separating the ‘objective’ laws from their ‘distortions.’ But neither neclassicists nor Marxists can do so, even on paper: the basic units of utility and abstract labour underlying these laws are unobservable – and even if they were observable, there is no inherent reason why human beings would have to obey any ‘objective’ law based on such units. This critique does not imply social chaos. Far from it. Society is not a formless mass and its history is not a mere collection of accidents. There are rules, patterns and a certain logic to human affairs. But these ‘structures’ are created, articulated and instituted not from the outside, but by society itself. They are manifested through religion, the law, science, ideology, conviction, habit and force. Although embedded in the physis, they are all creatures of the nomos. Whether imposed by rulers for the sake of power or crafted by the demos for their own happiness, they are all made by human beings. The above considerations are crucial for our purpose here, for, if we start from the nomos rather than utility or labour value, we end up with a completely different concept of capital, a radically different understanding of accumulation and new ways to interpret capitalist development. 4. CAPITAL AS POWER The Unit of Order Every ‘order’ – in society, as in nature – is articulated, or generated, through categories and forms.12 The most potent of these are numbers. The greater our ability to use numbers, the more accurate and comprehensive our capacity to articulate ‘order.’ In capitalism, the fundamental numerical unit is price. In principle, this unit can be assigned to anything that can be owned. In that sense, everything that can be owned – from natural objects, through produced commodities, to social organizations, ideas and human beings – can also be quantified. Moreover, the quantification is uniform across time and space. Prices in Europe of the Middle Ages are readily comparable to prices in India of the twenty-first century. This uniformity enables ownership to be intricately interrelated, or ‘ordered’ – and with great precision. The comprehensive reach and uniformity of the price system has made capitalism the most ‘ordered’ society ever. In no prior epoch have numbers been so extensively and consistently used to describe, organize and shape human behaviour. Prices enable entirely new ways of ‘re-ordering’ society. What previously required military conquest now can be done through currency devaluation; what once necessitated religious con12 We use ‘order’ here without normative connotations. 16 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? version today takes a mere shuffle of a few computer records we call ‘portfolio investment.’ Furthermore, the highly ‘malleable’ nature of prices – i.e., their remarkable ability to go up and down – makes capitalism by far the most dynamic of all historical orders. And, indeed, in capitalism change itself has become the key moment of order. The Pattern of Order Now, price is merely the unit with which capitalism is ordered. The actual pattern of order – namely, the way in which prices are structured relative to one another – is governed by the process of ‘capitalisation’ – that is, the discounting into present value of expected future earnings. Capitalisation is the central institution and key logic of the capitalist nomos. It is the ‘generative order,’ to use David Bohm’s term, through which the capitalist order, denominated in prices, is created and re-created, negotiated and imposed. Under the price system, the accumulation of capital occurs through capitalisation. The form of capital is the money value of an asset. In this sense, capital is finance, and only finance.13 Now, as we have already seen, the monetary magnitude of capital cannot be related to the ‘quantities’ of machines, productivity, labour or utility. To recap, contrary to conventional theory, these are ‘pseudo-quantities’; they do not have a clear meaning and hence they cannot be observed and measured; they cannot be reduced to universal units and therefore cannot be aggregated; and capitalists neither know nor care what they are, so they cannot be used to ‘explain’ the magnitude of capital. This theoretical ‘mismatch’ is evident, if only intuitively, in everyday reality. In 2004, Microsoft – a company that employs only 50,000 workers, has very few machines and sells a fairly mediocre set of products – had a market value of $300 billion. By contrast, General Motors, with a huge work force in excess of 300,000, countless plants, plenty of equipment and highly complex production lines – had a market capitalisation of only $23 billion. Political economists explain such ‘discrepancies’ in many different ways. One popular method is to attribute the discrepancy to ‘technology,’ ‘know-how’ or ‘human capital’ – all mysterious quanta that nobody can measure and therefore can easily be used to fill any gap (in this case, Microsoft’s higher capitalisation must be due to its more ample ‘human capital’ and ‘higher technology’). But sometimes the differences go the other way, with ‘low tech’ companies enjoying much higher valuations than ‘high tech’ ones. So a second solution is to resort either to Hume’s classical dichotomy between the ‘real’ and ‘monetary’ spheres, or to Marx’s distinction between ‘actual’ and ‘fictitious’ capital. Finance, we are told, although ultimately determined by the reality of means of production, gets ‘distorted’ by the fiction of ‘speculation’ and other 13 Capitalists can own production facilities, retail chains or banks, but that does not make their capital ‘productive,’ ‘commercial,’ or ‘financial.’ As we argue below, the articles capitalist own relate to their capital only insofar as they bear on power (for more on the issue, see Nitzan and Bichler 2000; Bichler and Nitzan 2004). 17 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? ‘imperfections.’ It is only when the ‘bubble’ gets deflated, goes the argument, that finance is reduced, if only temporarily, to the ‘true’ value of the ‘underlying’ capital. This ‘delinking’ thesis is wide of the mark. As we shall see later, capitalisation has a lot to do with production, broadly defined; but it has nothing to do with the mythical quantities of production. The notion of ‘speculative bubbles’ that ‘delink’ finance from its ‘true’ productive value is meaningful only if such true value exists. But this true value is a ‘pseudo-quantity.’ It does not exist, and therefore it cannot be ‘distorted,’ ‘misrepresented,’ ‘inflated’ or ‘delinked’ from. The story is completely different. Begin with the process by which market value is determined. Most generally, the money magnitude of an asset is a ‘capitalisation’ of earnings. It is equal not to the owned material and immaterial ‘objects,’ but to the present value of the earnings the asset is expected to generate. The actual computation depends on three basic magnitudes: (1) the expected earnings; (2) the risk factor associated with those expected earnings; and (3) the normal rate or return used to ‘discount’ the earnings to their present value. A simplified expression is illustrated by the following equation:14 returnofratenormalrisk earningsexcpected tioncapitalisa × ≡ Expected earnings is not a single number, but an income stream that can follow different temporal patterns. Risk refers to the extent to which capitalists believe they can predict the course of these earnings; the standard basis for such judgment is the temporal variability of earnings, with higher variability typically considered more risky. Finally, the normal rate of return is what capitalists believe they can get by investing in so-called ‘riskless’ assets, such as U.S. government bonds.15 All three magnitudes of course are highly conjectural. They depend on observed facts, but also, and often very much so, on the collective outlook of buyers and sellers. The latter outlook is certainly ‘prejudiced,’ ‘biased’ and ‘skewed’ by circumstances, habits and convictions – but it is also a crucial aspect of the capitalist nomos. Capitalisation is the basic building block of accumulation, the fundamental formula that all capitalists believe in and nearly everyone else accepts as ‘natural.’ Any conjecture built into it, therefore, becomes an ‘objective’ force more real and imposing than any of the ‘tangible facts.’ This framework tells us where to start looking. Microsoft’s capitalisation is 13 times larger than General Motors’ because investors expect it to earn 13 times more, to have earnings that are 13 times less risky, or some combination of the two (the normal rate of return, being equivalent in both cases, has no impact on the difference). 14 Capitalisation and expected earnings are measured in dollars (or any other currency), whereas the risk factor and the normal rate of return are noted in decimals. 15 ‘Risklessness’ is commonly used to denote the perception of minimum risk, not the absence of risk. 18 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? The same principle holds true for any other asset. The capitalisation logic determines the present value of a worker (the value of her mortgaged home, car and line of credit together being dependent on her expected lifetime earnings and the risk of her being laid off). It determines the present value of a government (the amount of its bond issues being dependent on its ability to levy taxes and the social risks that come with such levies). And it determines the present value of any final good or service (being equal to the commodity’s one-shot resale price, discounted for the time it will be sold and the risk that it may not). Clearly, then, in order to explain capitalisation we need to look not backward to the ‘productive’ articles that supposedly ‘make up’ the asset, but forward to what the asset can earn and at what risk. Capitalisation of Power Every social order is created through a certain mixture of cooperation and power. In Athenian democracy cooperation was paramount; in capitalism, power is the governing principle. The primacy of power in capitalism is rooted in the centrality of private ownership. ‘Private’ comes from the Latin privatus, meaning ‘restricted,’ and from privare, which means ‘to deprive.’ In the words of Jean-Jacques Rousseau: ‘The first man who, having enclosed off a piece of land, got the idea of saying “This is mine” and found people simple [minded] enough to believe him was the true founder of civil society’ (Rousseau 1754: Second Part). The most important feature of private ownership is not to enable those who own, but to disable those who do not. Technically, anyone can get into someone else’s car and drive away, or give an ‘order’ to sell all of Warren Buffet’s shares in Berkshire Hathaway. The sole purpose of private ownership is to prevent us from doing so. In this sense, private ownership is wholly and only an act of exclusion, and exclusion is a matter of power. Exclusion does not have to be exercised. What matters is the right to exclude and the ability to exact terms for not excluding. These ‘terms’ are the source of accumulation. The actual process of exclusion is qualitative and potentially multifaceted; its ultimate evidence, quantitative and uniform. We can observe and describe the many individual facets of exclusion, but the only way to ‘aggregate’ these qualitatively different facets is by examining the distribution of income (earnings) and its temporal trajectory (risk). And since both earnings and risk are a matter of exclusion and therefore power, it follows that capital, being the present value of risk-adjusted earnings, represents the capitalisation of power. Ultimately, what gets capitalised is the power to ‘order’ society. Furthermore, and crucially, since power and distribution are inherently differential, we cannot talk about ‘absolute’ accumulation. Accumulation is always and everywhere a differential process, a quantitative representation of the power of owners relative to others – others who can exclude plenty, others who can exclude little, and, finally, those who can exclude no one and therefore own nothing. (The notion of differential accumulation is central to our argument, but we need to deal with other issues before returning to it in Section 6.) 19 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Clearly, not every fact of power in society gets capitalised. It is only insofar as power does affect earnings and risk, and only insofar as this impact is considered sufficiently significant and non-transitory, that the risk-adjusted income and the power behind it get ‘discounted.’ In capitalism, though, these prerequisites are remarkably inclusive and constantly expanding. In this way, every power arrangement, institution and process that systematically affects the flow and temporal pattern of earnings is a potential facet of capital. Concrete examples include military spending and managed stagflation in Israel, apartheid laws and democratization in South Africa, the pendulum of inflation and corporate amalgamation in the United States, organized crime in Russia and IMF bailouts in Asia, and ‘energy conflicts’ and ‘peace dividends’ in the Middle East. Other illustrations, pertaining to the more universal processes of power, include the struggle over the nature of labour and work, the creation of ‘wants,’ intellectual property rights, protectionism and the systematic use of violence. These processes and institutions all bear on earnings and risk; and once their impact is ‘discounted’ by investors, they become capital. This ‘encompassing process,’ the transformation by which capital simultaneously ‘subsumes’ and ‘quantifies’ other forms of power, is perhaps the broader meaning of capitalist development. Examining this development, therefore, requires that we place power at the centre of analysis, and that we do so from the very start. Once we accept this requirement, ‘politics’ and ‘economics’ appear not as distinct spheres of human activity and consciousness, but as an artificial ‘fragmentation’ that needs to be overcome. The way to articulate and historicize the capitalisation of power is necessarily speculative. In Marxist and neoclassical theories there is an ‘equation,’ with capital measured in money on the one side, and its ‘determinants’ denominated in abstract labour or utility on the other. Both sides are quantitative and therefore comparable. By contrast, with ‘capital as power’ the equality is only metaphorical. The financial form of capital is quantitative, whereas the institutions and processes of power are qualitative. The only way to ‘equate’ them is speculatively: we need to tell a convincing story that contrasts the quantitative trajectory of accumulation on the one hand with the qualitative development of power on the other. This juxtaposition is admittedly ‘subjective’ – but, then, that is precisely how the quantitative capitalist nomos is conceived, articulated and imposed by the ruling capitalist class on the rest of society. The numerical capitalist order is created not objectively from the outside, but inter-subjectively from the inside, by human beings. As scientists, we try to understand how. The fact that this determination is partly speculative is no invitation for ‘postist’ charlatans. Arbitrary ‘narratives’ cannot go very far here. Since the subject of inquiry is the structured nomos, the purpose is still to produce a framework that is systematic yet open to change, comprehensive and operational, robust and predictive, and, above all, elegant. 20 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? The Capitalist Order and Humane Society: An Interpolation A crucial note: the study of capitalization does not, and cannot, provide a general theory of society. Capitalization is the language of dominant capital. It embodies the beliefs, desires and fears of the ruling capitalist class. It tells us how this group views the world, how it imposes its will on society, how it tries to mechanize human beings. It is the architecture of capitalist power. This architecture, though, tells us very little about the human beings who are subjected to its power. Of course, we observe their ‘behaviour,’ their ‘reaction’ to capitalist threats, their ‘choice’ of capitalist temptations. Yet we know close to nothing about their consciousness, awareness, thoughts, intentions, imagination and aspirations. The human kind is like a magma to us, a smooth surface that moves and shifts. Most of the time its movements are rather predictable. But under the surface lurk autonomous qualities and energies. The language of capitalist power can neither describe nor comprehend these qualities and energies. It knows nothing about their magnitude and potential. It can never anticipate when and how they will erupt. Consider that none of the pundits – communist or anti-communist – foresaw the collapse of the Soviet bloc (although, in retrospect, the victory of liberalism was of course ‘inevitable’). Similarly with the May 1968 revolution in France. This was arguably the most important revolution of the twentieth century. And yet, even a few days before its explosion, no sociologist – conservative or radical – had a clue of what was coming (Anonymous 1968; Orr 2003). The story repeats itself with the first Palestinian Intifada that started in 1987. The uprising took everyone by surprise, including the critical ‘orientalists’ and the PLO establishment. The list goes on. These revolutionary instances cannot be easily theorized, and for a good reason. They are rooted in the original spark of free human creativity. Originality and creativity cannot be modelled or reduced to historical laws of motion. They cannot be systematically predicted. They do not follow a clear pattern. They are unique. Karl Marx, the first to investigate the dynamic architecture of capitalism, tried to fuse the two movements of power and resistance to power into a single language. For him, the power of capitalists to accumulate and the political struggle of workers against that power could both be derived from and analyzed by one basic logic: the labour theory of value. In our view, this fusion is impossible to achieve. It is impossible to impose the logic of labour (and of human activity in general) on capitalists. We cannot denominate the pecuniary architecture of capitalization in homogenous units of abstract labour. Capitalization and productivity/creativity are two distinct processes, each with its own separate ‘logic.’ The destructive clash of these two processes is the engine of the capitalist dialectic, but the dialectic itself cannot be understood with one common language. Instead, we prefer to imagine two general ‘entities.’ The first entity is the capitalist order, whose pattern is imposed on society. The gyrations and development of this order can be subjected to a systematic, quantitative theory of power. The second en21 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? tity is a stealth humane society. This society exists mostly as an unknown potential. Usually it is dormant and therefore invisible. Occasionally, though, it erupts, often without warning, to challenge and sometimes threaten the institutions of capitalist power. These eruptions – and their consequences – do not follow a pre-set pattern. They cannot be systematically theorized. For this reason, we do not pretend to offer a general theory of ‘capitalist society.’ We limit ourselves to the study of the ‘capitalist order’ only, the order of those who rule. To rule means to see the world from a singular viewpoint, to be locked into a unitary logic, to be subservient to your own architecture of power. Dominant capital cannot deviate from the boundaries of this architecture, even if it wants to. Its individual members are forced to accept the very logic they impose on the rest of humanity. And the more effective they are in imposing that logic, the more predictable they themselves become. This is why their world could be theorized and to some extent predicted. In the twentieth century, the power logic of capitalism is incarnated in the process of differential capitalization; that is to say, in the belief that there is a ‘normal rate of return’ and that capitalists are obliged to ‘beat’ it. This is the gist of the new capitalist cosmology. Instead of the Holy Scriptures, we now have the universal language of business accounting and corporate finance. The power of God, once vested in priest and king, now reveals itself as the power Capital vested in the ‘investor.’ And as the capitalisation of power spreads and penetrates, the world seems increasingly ‘deterministic.’ The determinism of capitalization is now the ‘natural state of things,’ the benchmark against which one can estimate ‘deviations’ ‘distortions,’ ‘risk’ and ‘return.’ It is a logic that looks unquestionable to those who rule and omnipotent to those who are being ruled. But this determinism of capitalization has nothing to do with ‘laws of nature,’ or the ‘inevitable’ progression of history. It is the determinism of the ruling class, and only of the ruling class. It works only insofar as the ruling class rules. Admittedly, that happens most of the time. However, human beings do have the capacity to understand the autonomous nature of this ‘determinism.’ And when they realize that the ‘rules’ are imposed on them by other human beings, determinism disappears, replaced – if only for a historical instant – by the humane promise of autonomy-democracyphilosophy. 5. PRODUCTION AND STATE Accumulation and Production Clearly, as an encompassing power process, accumulation cannot be exclusively a matter of production. That is not to say, however, that that production ‘does not matter’ for accumulation. Far from it. ‘Production’ – understood loosely as the organization of labour for the conversion of energy/matter into useful (and harmful) articles – is a cen22 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? depend on the highway system provided by governments and the availability of alternative public transportation; they depend on environmental regulation or lack thereof; it depends on the ups and downs in the price of oil and hence on the politics of the Middle East; they depend on tax arrangements with various governments and on the ability to legally use ‘transfer pricing’; they depend on a sophisticated propaganda war that creates wants and shapes desires; they depend on the relative strength of DaimlerChrysler’s labour unions; and on and on. DaimlerChrysler’s profits also hinge on its huge credit operations, and therefore on monetary policy; and they depend on the company’s military business, and therefore on the global politics of armament budgets and the ‘threat’ of interand intra-state conflict. A final example – the oil companies. As we shall see later, over the past thirty years the relative profits of these companies have had little to do with variations in the production of oil – and almost everything to do with oil’s relative price. And the relative price of oil in turn has had little to do with ‘supply and demand’ or ‘abstract labour’ and everything to do with the global political economy in general and the political economy of the Middle East in particular. So here, too, profit is a matter of politics, which means that assets partly capitalise state power. The conclusion then is pretty clear. If capital is a material substance, then the most we can say is that the state does or does not ‘affect’ its accumulation. But if assets represent capitalised power, then capital must be seen as incorporating within it aspects of state power; in other words, that the state is partly an aspect of capital. The Capitalist State The other side of the coin is the extent to which the state is ‘conditioned’ by capital. Few people would deny the existence of ‘state organs’ – namely the government, the judiciary, the civil service, the police and army. These organizations are an observed reality. What is far less obvious is the logic that lies behind them. Opinions on this question vary widely. At one extreme we have the realist position, according to which the state, represented by its ‘officials,’ seeks to defend the ‘national interest’ against the interest of other nations. At the other extreme, we have the structuralist Marxist position that sees the state, in the ‘last instance,’ as being subservient to the ‘logic of accumulation.’ And both views ring true. There is little doubt that George Bush Jr. and his administration believe that they represent the ‘national interest’ of the United States. It is also fairly obvious that this same administration, despite its considerable leeway, cannot deviate ‘too much’ from the underlying dictates of profit and accumulation. And here lies the problem: as stated, both views are in fact mutually consistent. How do we rank them? Did the United States attack Iraq in 2003 to serve its vital national interests? To protect the capitalist order? Both? Which is the more important? Can we even tell them apart? Similarly, how do we trace the changing significance of each of these logics? Considering the past fifty years, could we say, for example, that the ‘national interest’ has grown less imposing relative to the ‘logic of accumulation,’ 29 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? or was it the other way around? Perhaps the underlying logics of the national interest and accumulation have both changed? If we think of the two key power institutions of our society as ‘capital’ and ‘state,’ and of the two key power organizations as the ‘corporation’ and the ‘government apparatus,’ the question that we need to address is their respective ‘boundaries’: to what extent are they ‘distinct,’ how far do they ‘overlap,’ and how does their ‘symbiosis’ develop over time? These, undoubtedly, are big questions. To answer them, we have to take the following steps. First, we need to specify clearly the ‘logic of state power’ and the ‘logic of accumulation,’ including the categories and units in which they are articulated and observed. Second, we need to identify conflicts between these logics. And, third, we need to examine how these conflicts pan out comparatively and historically. Based on such investigation, we can then choose the logic that gives the most consistent, robust and predictive picture. Clearly, so far the debate has not taken this route. Worse still, it seems that both sides have preferred to frame their positions in irrefutable terms. Stephen Krasner, an advocate of the realist view, interprets the ‘national interest’ not as the sum of individual interests, but rather as the overall interest of the nation. In his words, it is not the ‘utility of the community’ that matters, but the ‘utility for the community’ as determined by its central decision makers (Krasner 1978: 12, original emphases). In practice, though, the ‘decision makers’ themselves rarely agree on the matter, so it is up to the researcher – Krasner in this case – to make the decision for them. And the way this interest is phrased is often so loose that it can be made consistent with virtually any line of action. For example, according to this template, the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq was motivated (depending on the theorist) by the quest for raw materials, by the need to spread capitalist ideology, by the desire to tame the barbarians, by the aspiration to thwart Europe and Asia, by the desire to have Bush Jr. reelected, or simply by a miscalculation – all in the name of the national interest. Go prove otherwise. Unfortunately, structural Marxists do not always fare much better in specifying the ‘logic of accumulation’ and the ‘interest of capitalists,’ let alone in assessing the degree to which this logic and interest dominate the state. In the 1960s, the welfare state served the long-term interest of capitalism; in the 1980s, the welfare state’s demise better served that same interest. In the 1980s and 1990s, capitalists wanted a new world order of peace; now they suddenly want Empire. In the 1970s and 1980s the U.S. government tried to serve its ‘own’ capitalists by conspiring with OPEC to raise prices; in the early 2000s it tried to cater to their ‘global’ interests by invading the Middle East in order to lower oil prices. These claims may or may not be true. But their validity can be judged only if we first specify exactly what we mean by the ‘interest of capitalists’ and the ‘logic of accumulation.’ Only then can we begin to judge whether state organizations are autonomous or subservient to these interests, or perhaps somewhere in between. 30 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? The remainder of this mimeograph tries to outline the logic of capitalism and the interest of the dominant owners as we see them. We then illustrate, if only briefly, some key features of the historical development of capital accumulation. The quantitative patterns that we outline delineate the boundaries of capitalist politics. These boundaries point to the central political processes, broadly defined, that determine the course of accumulation. They also provide a basis for assessing the extent to which state policies have been ‘discounted’ into capital on the one hand and the degree to which the logic of capital itself has become a ‘form of state’ on the other. 6. DIFFERENTIAL ACCUMULATION AND DOMINANT CAPITAL Every power society has its own hierarchical system of ranking, and capitalism’s is by far the most universal, flexible and encompassing. With capital viewed as a capitalisation of power, the logic of accumulation is inherently differential. A stock or a bond is a power claim over the social process. Its relative quantity, measured as a ratio of money values, represents the proportionate ability of the owners to control and shape this process for their own aims. And since this power, by definition, is exclusionary, it is only relevant relative to the power of other owners. Microsoft’s capitalisation being $300 billion is meaningless. But this capitalisation being 13 times larger than GM’s and a million times larger than a well-off software analyst gives us a clear reading of Microsoft’s relative power. For this reason, capitalists seek not absolute accumulation, but differential accumulation. They want not more purchasing power or more machines, but to see their assets grow faster than the average. They want to augment their ability to exclude and redistribute, and the evidence for this ability is differential asset growth. For any capitalist or group of capitalists, the rate of differential accumulation (DA) is defined by: DA ≡ growth rate of assets – growth rate of the average asset And since assets represent the discounted value of risk-adjusted earnings, this definition in turn implies: DA = (growth rate of expected earnings – growth rate of average expected earnings) – (growth rate of risk – growth rate of average risk) We can further simplify this expression by noting that, over the longer haul, earning expectations tend to oscillate around the path of actual earnings, so that: DA ≈ (growth rate of earnings – growth rate of average earnings) – (growth rate of risk – growth rate of average risk) 31 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? All in all, then, the higher the differential earnings and the lower the differential risk, the greater the rate of differential accumulation. And the greater the rate of differential accumulation, the greater the increase in relative social power. Obviously, not all capitalists can achieve differential accumulation. If some accumulate differentially, there must be others who decumulate differentially. For this reason, we cannot treat all capital as inherently similar (capital ‘in general’ or ‘many capitals in competition’). From the start, we must identify the leading differential accumulators whose capital grows the fastest. This group is historically determined. Usually, it consists of the owners and top executives of the largest corporations at the core of the political economy (as well as smaller contenders whose power is rapidly rising). We label this group ‘dominant capital.’ The fact that this group generally succeeds in achieving differential accumulation on the one hand, and its intricate involvement in the central power processes of government, the law, ideology, mass persuasion, international organizations, production and consumption on the other, are really two sides of the same process. Dominant capital, by its very nature, must become increasingly fused – although never entirely synonymous – with the ruling class in contemporary capitalism. The extent to which dominant capital is able to shape the social process is imprinted on the nomos of capitalist accounting. Most broadly, this ability is reflected in the combined share of interest and profit in overall income (earnings), as well as in the variability of that share (risk). In the United States, the path of both indicators, illustrated in Figure 2, suggests the growing consolidation of capitalist power. First, the share of capital in national income has trended up systematically – from an average of less than 12 per cent in the 1930s to nearly 17 per cent in the 1990s. Second – and in open defiance of conventional finance theory – the variability of the income share of capital has actually declined, and steeply.18 All in all, then, capitalists controlled a growing share of the total income stream in the United States; and, judging by the declining variability of that share, this control has become more predictable and less risky. As emphasized, underlying the aggregate picture is the growing power of dominant capital, measured by its differential accumulation. Figure 3 provides two indicators for differential accumulation. The proxy for dominant capital here is the Fortune 500 group of companies. The top series in the chart shows the ratio between the net profit of a typical Fortune 500 firm and the annual average wage rate in the private sector. The bottom series shows the ratio between the net profit of a typical Fortune 500 firm and the average net profit per firm in the corporate sector. (These indicators are biased in two ways. First, until 1993, the Fortune 500 proxy included only firms whose largest line of business in terms of sales was manufacturing and/or mining, and therefore did not represent the full spectrum of dominant capital. From 1994 onward 18 In terms of standardized relative deviations from trend, measured as a 20-year moving average, the variability of the income share of capital declined by two thirds from the 1930s to the mid 1960s, and remained relatively stable thereafter. 32 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Figure 2 Capital Income in the United State * Including capital consumption allowance and inventory valuation adjustment. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce through Global Insight (series codes: INTNETAMISC for interest; ZBECON for corporate profit; YN for national income). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Pretax Corporate Profit * and Net Interest as a per cent of National Income the universe has been expanded to include all firms. Second, capitalist income for both the Fortune 500 and the average corporation does not include interest income earned by corporate creditors and bond holders.) Both series show a persistent exponential uptrend (note the logarithmic scale). In the early 1950s, a dominant capital firm commanded a profit stream roughly 5,000 times the income of an average worker; in the late 1990s, the comparable figure was 25,000, a fivefold increase. Similarly with differential accumulation relative to other firms. In the early 1950s, the net profit of a Fortune 500 firm was 500 times bigger than the U.S. average; in the late 1990s, the multiple was around 7,000, an fourteen-fold increase. Unlike with the total income share of capital depicted in Figure 2, here the increase in differential earnings has been accompanied, particularly in the early 1990s and early 2000s, with higher volatility (although a more complete analysis that includes interest income and ‘corrects’ for the prevalent accounting fraud of the late 1990s could modify this conclusion). 33 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Figure 3 Differential Accumulation in the United States NOTE: Net profit for the average U.S. firm is total after tax profit divided by the number of corporate tax return. The annual wage rate is based on total private average hourly earnings. Until 1993, the Fortune 500 list included only industrial corporations (firms deriving at least half their sales revenues from manufacturing and/or mining). In 1994, the list was expanded to include all corporations. For 1992-3, data for Fortune 500 companies are reported without SFAS 106 special charges. SOURCE: Fortune; U.S. Internal Revenue Service; U.S. Department of Commerce through Global Insight (series codes: ZA for profit after tax without IVA and CCADJ; AHEEAP for total private average hourly earnings). 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Net Profit Ratio: Fortune 500 / Average U.S. Firm Trend growth rate: 4.6% per annum Net Profit to Wage Rate Ratio: Fortune 500 / Wage Rate Trend growth rate: 2.7% per annum log scale Assuming our power approach to accumulation is correct, these indicators suggest that, over the past century, the power logic of capital in the United States has significantly solidified (larger income share and lower variability), and that dominant capital, the engine of this process, has grown stronger (although possibly more vulnerable to higher risk). How has this increase in capitalist power been achieved? 34 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Regimes of Differential Accumulation Differential accumulation is a broad political process and, as such, could be examined in various ways. Here, we look at it from the viewpoint of the capitalist corporation. Analytically, there are two methods of achieving differential accumulation: breadth and depth. To illustrate the meaning of these concepts, begin with the dollar level of corporate earnings, written as a product of two components: (i) the ‘size’ of the corporate organization, proxied by the number of employees; and (ii) the ‘elemental power’ of that organization, measured in dollar earnings per employee.19 Symbolically, this decomposition could be written as follows: earnings ≡ (employment) x (profit / employment) Labeling the first brackets ‘breadth’ and the second ‘depth,’ we have: earnings ≡ breadth x depth This decomposition, although true by definition, is highly useful for our purpose. To see why, think about this equation in relative, or differential, terms. A dominant capitalist increases breadth in absolute terms by increasing employment; he increases breadth in relative terms by increasing differential employment – that is, by increasing his own employment faster than the average. For example, if average employment growth is 5 percent, and dominant capital expands its labour force by 7 percent, we say that differential breadth is 2 percent (the difference between the two). Following the same logic, to increase depth is to raise earnings per employee, and to increase differential depth is to raise earnings per employee faster than the average. If the average earnings per employee grow by 10 percent and dominant capital achieves 14 percent, differential depth is 4 percent. Each of these methods – breadth and depth – can be further subdivided into external and internal avenues, leading to a four-way classification illustrated in Table 1. Table 1 Regimes of Differential Accumulation External Internal Breadth Green-field Mergers & Acquisitions Depth Stagflation Cost-cutting 35 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? External breadth takes place when dominant capital hires new workers and creates new, green-field capacity faster than the average. Internal breadth occurs when dominant capital takes over existing capacity and workers through mergers and acquisitions; that is, by buying other companies. Individually, large firms engage in both methods; but as a group, their differential breadth is determined almost entirely by the latter. ‘One capitalist always kills many,’ observed Karl Marx in the nineteenth century (1909: Vol. 1, p. 836). And, indeed, the twentieth-century growth of big business was achieved mostly by amalgamation, with large firms buying existing capacity rather than building it (see for instance, Scherer and Ross 1990: Chs. 3 and 5). Internal depth refers to the ability of large firms to increase earnings per employee by cutting cost faster than the average. External depth denotes the capacity of large firms to do the same by increasing prices faster than the average. Again, individually, dominant capital firms try to do both, sometimes simultaneously. But over the longer haul it is mostly the latter method that matters for differential depth. Cost cutting, of course, is pursued relentlessly by both large and small firms. However, since it is difficult to prevent others from using new production techniques and from taking advantage of cheaper input prices, the net impact of cost cutting is mostly to meet the average rather than beat it. Historically, the main gains in differential depth have come from dominant capital raising its prices faster than the average, a process that at the aggregate level appears as stagflation. Now, to most readers, these claims would seem counterintuitive, if not preposterous. As noted, growth often is used as a synonym for accumulation, and inflation is considered poisonous for profit. Capitalism, goes the conventional creed, abhors stagnation and loves price stability. Unfortunately, these conventions do not sit well with the facts, real or imaginary. The mismatch is largely the result of the theoretical fixation on ‘material’ accumulation already alluded to. If we break this fixation and instead think of accumulation as a differential power process, mergers and acquisitions suddenly become as important as growth, if not more so, and stagflation, at least under certain circumstances, turns from foe to friend. Indeed, as we shall see below, these two accumulation paths – amalgamation and stagflation – have become so paramount that they now appear as broad social ‘regimes,’ each with its own unique characteristics. 19 Note that we use employment here to measure the ‘size’ of the corporation as a power organization, not a productive unit. Whether the employees produce plenty or little is relevant only insofar as the output bears on the corporation’s ‘elemental power.’ 36 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? 7. AMALGAMATION AND STAGFLATION Growth or Merger? There is no denying that green-field growth is a central process in capitalism. But as we have seen, the effect of growth on corporate earnings is highly non-linear – and from a certain point, negative. The twentieth century rise of ‘big business’ and ‘large government’ helped circumvent the threat of ‘excessive’ growth. Gradually, differential accumulation by dominant capital has come to depend more and more on corporate merger (internal breadth) and less and less on green-field growth (external depth). The process is clearly illustrated in Figure 4, where we show the ‘Buy-to-Build Ratio’ for the United States. This index measures, for each year, the ratio between the dollar value of mergers and acquisitions and the dollar value put into building new factories, or what economists call ‘real’ investment. Note the explosive growth 0 1 10 100 1,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 trend growth rate: 3% per annum Buy-to-Build Indicator* (mergers & acquisitions as a % of gross fixed capital formation) 1999 216% 1895 0.6% log scale 2002 75% Figure 4 Corporate Amalgamation in the United States SOURCE: Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler, The Global Political Economy of Israel (London: Pluto Press, 2002), Data Appendix, pp. 82-3. Updated to 2002. 37 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? of this ratio, plotted on a logarithmic scale. In the late nineteenth century, there was less than one cent’s worth of mergers and acquisitions for every one dollar of ‘real’ investment. Fast forward another hundred years, and for every one dollar of ‘real’ investment there were over two dollars put into mergers. In other words, over the entire period mergers have grown roughly 300 times faster than ‘real’ investment. Does this process make any sense? From the viewpoint of absolute accumulation, not really. Mergers do not add more machines, more utility or more abstract labour. They simply reshuffle ownership. But from the viewpoint of differential accumulation, the process makes a great deal of sense. For dominant capital, ‘too much’ green-field investment is disastrous. Simply put, it means the inability to ‘exclude’ – the other side of which is glut, falling prices and, eventually, differential decumulation, including the possible disintegration of the existing grid of power, institutions and capabilities. Clearly, it is much better to buy than to build. Buying helps dominant capital kill four birds with one stone: (1) it does not create any new capacity; (2) it expands control; (3) it helps earnings grow faster than the average – since, by definition, the average remains the same; and (4) it reduces risk by making the resulting units larger, more diversified and further intertwined with state organizations and processes. This focus on merger helps explain the globalisation zeal of the past twenty years. The chart shows four merger waves. Each of these waves occurred within a given ‘corporate universe.’ (1) The monopoly wave of the turn of the century occurred within individual industries; (2) the oligopoly wave of the 1920s occurred within sectors; (3) the conglomerate wave of the 1960s took place across the entire business sector; and (4) and the last wave of the 1980s and 1990s was, by and large, global. This historical ‘progression’ is not without logic. When expanding through merger, dominant capital eventually takes over everything worth owning in its original universe. And once it reaches that point, the only way to continue merging is to break this original envelope and go to the next one. This logic explains the progression from the industry to the sector to the national border. And eventually, when the national scene becomes highly centralized, it explains why there is no choice but to ‘go global.’ From this perspective, ‘neoliberal globalisation’ – both as an ideology and as a practice – was a matter not of choice but of necessity, so to speak: without it, the fourth merger wave could not have happened. Furthermore, the driving force was not productive integration (although that could be a consequence), but power: roughly three quarter of all direct foreign investment in the 1990s occurred through corporate merger20 (we return to the issue of ‘globalization’ at the end of this section). 20 Note that, on its own, the act of foreign investment – whether portfolio or direct – consists of nothing more than the creation or alteration of ownership titles. The popular perception that ‘direct’ investment creates new productive capacity, in contrast to ‘portfolio’ investment, which is merely a paper transaction, is simply wrong. In fact, both are paper transactions 38 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Figure 8 Amalgamation and Stagflation in the United States * Computed as the average of the following two indices: (1) the standardized deviations from average of the rate of unemployment, and (2) the standardized deviation from the average rate of inflation of the GDP implicit price deflator. The last data point (2004) is an estimate. ** Mergers and acquisitions as a percent of gross fixed capital formation. The last two data points (2003-4) are estimates. NOTE: Series are shown as 5-year moving averages (the first four observations in each series cover data to that point only). SOURCE: The stagflation index is computed from data from the U.S. Department of Commerce through Global Insight (series codes: RUC for the rate of unemployment and GDP/GDPR for the GDP implicit price deflator). The Amalgamation Index is from Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler, The Global Political Economy of Israel (London: Pluto Press, 2002), Data Appendix, pp. 82-3 (updated to 2002). 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 10,000.0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Amalgamation Index ** (Buy-to-Build Indicator, left) Stagflation Index * (unemployment plus inflation, right) log scale capital is driven by the quest for differential accumulation, and that this quest is best served by amalgamation or stagflation. But amalgamation and stagflation are not laws of nature. They are creatures of the nomos. Neither has to happen, they do not have to move counter-cyclically, and they do not have to augment differential accumulation. In this context, the fact that both are ‘orderly’ phenomena, that they do 45 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? move counter-cyclically, and that their inter-related pattern has sustained continued differential accumulation for the past century – is nothing short of remarkable. The energy necessary to arrest a society of potentially free beings into such a historical straitjacket must be enormous. The fact that humanity now marches with this straitjacket on, and so predictably, attests the victory of the capitalist nomos. The third, related pattern in Figure 8 is the progressive ‘tightening’ of the inverse correlation between merger and stagflation.26 This progression from looser to tighter correlation may be related to the spread and penetration of differential accumulation as a central feature of contemporary capitalism. Differential accumulation by individual capitalists is not new. But it emerged as a dominant political process only toward the end of the nineteenth century, when corporations grew large enough and became sufficiently intertwined with state organizations to engage in systematic strategic sabotage. The process first became important in certain sectors in the United States and Europe, from where it subsequently spread domestically and internationally. However, the spread was highly uneven, and so, despite high capital mobility, the cyclical regimes in different sectors and countries initially were disjoined and out of step with one another. It was only later – with the gradual proliferation and deepening of business principles, conventions and ideology, with the progressive breaking of sectoral envelopes, and with the growing globalisation of ownership – that differential accumulation became the compass of modern capitalism. And therefore it was only toward the middle of the twentieth century, when the combined effect of these processes began to be felt, that breadth and depth grew stylized and more synchronised. By the end of the century, the pendulum of breadth and depth has become almost predictable – so much so that in 1999 we were able to anticipate both the coming end of the neoliberal global merger boom and the shift toward conflict-driven stagflation (Nitzan 1999). Taken together, the three key features in Figure 8 – the growing significance of corporate amalgamation as the main engine of differential accumulation; the counter-cyclical movement of amalgamation and stagflation; and their tightening inverse correlation – can help us understand the changing nature of the capitalist nomos. On the one hand, these features provide a clear logic for the capitalisation of power; they suggest a relatively predictable periodicity for its central processes; and they place fairly clear quantitative ‘boundaries’ around these processes. On the other hand, by focusing on the qualitatively distinct socio-political hallmarks of corporate amalgamation and stagflation, we can historicize their quantitative patterns. Differential Accumulation and the Pattern of Conflict Since differential accumulation is a process of social transformation, its specific regimes are important for understanding the broader nature of institutional and struc26 The 25-year moving correlation between the stagflation and amalgamation indices (with the amalgamation index measured as natural log and expressed as deviation from its own trend) rose from a +0.08 in 1914, to –0.94 in 2001. 46 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? tural change under capitalism. Perhaps the most important of these changes concerns the pattern of conflict. Dominant capital struggles to increase its power, primarily relative to other capitalists. In breadth this struggle is direct; in depth, indirect. When expanding through breadth, capitalists fight each other over the control of existing and new business organizations. This intra-capitalist struggle is commonly associated with overall growth and ongoing institutional change, which in turn partly conceals the conflict between capitalists and society at large. By contrast, in depth, the intra-capitalist struggle is waged over the elemental power of business organization; this struggle is mediated through a redistributional conflict between capitalists and the rest of society. Moreover, in depth, redistribution thrives on stagflation, not growth. Obviously, sustaining such accumulation-through-crisis requires entrenchment, fortified power arrangements and a greater use of force and violence. All in all, then, the social conditions that are conducive to breadth are inhospitable for depth, and vice versa. This fact partly explains why breadth and depth, taken as broad ‘regimes,’ tend to move counter-cyclically rather than together. At the global level, and seen from the viewpoint of dominant capital in the core countries, we can tentatively identify several broad phases of differential accumulation whose initially blurred contours gradually sharpen into focus: (1) a mixture of breadth and depth during the period between the 1890s and 1910s; (2) a partial breadth regime during the 1920s; (3) a depth regime in the 1930s; (4) a breadth regime from the 1940s to the 1960s; (5) a return to depth in the 1970s and early 1980s; (6) the re-emergence of breadth in the late 1980s and 1990s; and (7) the apparent return of depth in the early years of the twenty-first century. Let us look at each of these periods more closely. The period from the 1890s to the 1910s was one of rapid and accelerating economic growth, coupled with relatively low inflation and the beginning of corporate transnationalisation, particularly by large U.S.-based companies. Internationally, differential accumulation was still cloaked in ‘statist’ clothes, with American and European companies often seen as imperial agents as well as pursuers of their own interests. The competitive expansion of these companies, however, was largely uncoordinated and soon led to the creation of massive ‘imbalances’ of excess capacity. Left unattended, such imbalances would have spelled business ruin, so there was growing pressure to ‘resolve’ the predicament via depth. And, indeed, as Figure 8 shows, since the mid-1900s U.S. merger activity had collapsed, followed in the 1910s by war in Europe and the spread of stagflation around the world. The 1920s offered a brief break. In the United States, merger activity soared while stagflation subsided sharply. In Europe, however, the reprieve was short and stress signs soon were piling up. Protectionist walls, both between and within countries, emerged everywhere; stagflation spread through a cascade of crises; and before long the world had fallen into the Great Depression of the 1930s. 47 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? By that time, the counter-cyclical pattern of breadth and depth became more apparent, with declining merger activity accompanied by rising stagflation.27 The new depth regime was marked by the massive use of military force, in which the global power impasse was ‘resolved’ through an all-encompassing world war. This use of violence was articulated and justified largely in statist terms: it was a war of sovereigns, waged over territory and ideology. But the war also proved highly significant for differential accumulation. Most importantly, it accelerated the relative ascent of U.S.-based corporations, as well as the global spread of the normal rate of return. After the war, the world again shifted to breadth. The counter-cyclical regime pattern was sharpened even further, while the inverse correlation between inflation and growth became increasingly apparent. On the surface, it looked as if developments during that period, that lasted until the end of 1960s, should have undermined breadth. For one, superpower rivalry, decolonisation and the non-alignment movement limited the geographical expansion of Western dominant capital. In addition, many developing countries, previously open to foreign investment, adopted ‘import substitution’ policies that favoured domestic over foreign producers. And yet, for much of the 1950s and 1960s, these barriers on breadth were outweighed for by two powerful counter-forces. The first of these was the post-war ‘baby boom’ that boosted population growth. The second was the post-war rebuilding of Europe and Japan that in some sense was equivalent to the re-proletarianisation of their societies. The result was a powerful breadth engine, particularly for the large U.S. firms that saw their profits soar during that period. The macroeconomic result in the industrialised countries – anomalous from a conventional viewpoint but consistent with differential accumulation – was rapid economic growth averaging 6 per cent during that period, combined with low inflation of only 3 per cent. This picture was inverted in the 1970s. By then, the German and Japanese ‘miracles’ had already run out of steam, while Western rates of population growth dropped sharply. Foreign investment could have provided a way out, yet outlets for such investment in developing countries remained hindered by communist or statist regimes. Faced with these obstacles to breadth, dominant capital groups in the developed world were once again driven toward depth, with the average rate of inflation during the 1970s rising to 8 per cent and the average rate of economic growth dropping to 3 per cent. And, as before, the new depth regime was accompanied by heightened conflict and violence. This time, though, the conflict was played out 27 Strictly speaking, and contrary to our stylised characterisation of depth, the Great Depression brought deflation, not inflation. This observation, however, is true only from an aggregate viewpoint. As Gardiner Means (1935) showed in his innovative study of the United States during that period, the nature of the crisis was highly uneven. For smaller firms with little market power the crisis was largely one of sharply falling prices and only a moderate drop in output. The large firms, on the other hand, were able to keep their prices relatively stable and even raise them, while letting their output fall by as much as 80 per cent in some cases. In other words, stagflation, although invisible in the aggregates, was already very much present, if only in embryonic form. 48 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? mostly in the outlying areas of the developing world, initially in South East Asia and subsequently in the Middle East. Enter the Middle East The role of the Middle East in global capitalism provides a good illustration of the temporal spread and geographical integration of differential accumulation.28 Until the late 1940s, the region was ‘out of sync’ with the global cycle of differential accumulation. Its energy resources had already been parcelled out by the international oil companies in the 1920s; but with the world awash with oil, these companies mostly ‘sat on their concessions’ and produced little. As a result, the Middle East remained relatively isolated, and when Europe slipped into stagflation and conflict during the 1920s and 1930s, capital flight searching for safer havens turned the region into a prosperous ‘emerging market.’ After the war the tables turned. The Middle East – until then a truly ‘outlying area’ – suddenly became a centre stage for the global drama of differential accumulation. Initially, the link was pretty simple, with oil from the region helping sustain the growth underpinnings of global breadth. During the early 1970s, however, when differential accumulation shifted into depth, the relationship became more complicated. As we noted earlier, the inflationary depth regime of the 1970s and 1980s was largely a consequence of dominant capital ‘running out of breadth.’ This exhaustion in turn was partly the result of bipolar geopolitics that prevented capitalist expansion into outlying areas and contested Western control over ‘strategic regions,’ particularly the Middle East. One key consequence of this antagonism was an intense arms race. In this context, it is not surprising that arms exports – of which over one third were now going to the Middle East – rough followed the periodicity of Western inflation: the first process nourished the antagonism and violence of depth, the second its redistributional mechanism. Global arms exports and inflation both rose until the mid-1980s, peaked as the Cold War began to wane, and went into a free fall with the disintegration of communism and the onset of global breadth (see Nitzan and Bichler 2002: Figure 2.10, p. 77). Moreover, the two processes were causally connected: as we shall show in Section 8, military conflict, especially in the Middle East, contributed to rising energy prices, and therefore to higher inflation. The late 1980s marked the beginning of yet another breadth phase – this time at the global level. On the surface, the new breadth regime was somewhat anomalous according to our ‘stagflation criteria’: inflation in the industrial countries dropped sharply – yet, unlike in the previous cycles growth did not revive. A closer inspection, however, may explain why. First, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the wholesale capitulation of statist ideology, the entire world was finally open for capitalist expansion. The result was that although external breadth for dominant capital 49 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? fizzled in the industrial countries proper, it remained strong outside of these countries, particularly in developing Asia.29 Moreover, cheap imports from Asia helped keep inflation in the industrial countries low despite the latter’s domestic stagnation. Second, the ideological demise of public ownership and the ‘mixed economy’ opened the door for the privatisation of state assets and government services – a process that, from the viewpoint of dominant capital, was tantamount to green-field investment.30 Third and most importantly, the decline of statist ideology weakened the support for ‘national’ ownership, thus contributing to the spread of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. This combination of expansion into less developed countries, privatisation and corporate amalgamation helped sustain a powerful drive of breadth through merger for large Western corporations, despite the lacklustre growth of their ‘parent’ markets. The Globalisation of Ownership Differential accumulation operating through corporate amalgamation has had a deep, if unrecognized, impact on the decline of statist ideology. As we have seen, over the past half-century, and particularly since the 1980s, mergers have become global in scope. Increasingly, capital has been flowing not only from the so-called ‘core’ to the ‘periphery,’ but also in other directions – from the ‘periphery’ to the ‘core,’ as well as within the ‘core’ and ‘periphery’ clusters themselves. The cumulative effect of this process is illustrated in Table 2. In 1900, at the zenith of the ‘imperialist era,’ foreign assets were equivalent to 20 per cent of global GDP. British capitalists, already in relative decline, owned roughly half of these assets (down from 78 per cent in 1855). The next half-century witnessed a sharp decline, with the ratio of foreign assets to GDP falling to a mere 5 per cent in 1945. In 1960, U.S. owners, having taken the primacy from their U.K. peers, controlled half of these assets (with U.K. capitalists down to 41 per cent). From then, foreign investment again started to accelerate, and with cross-border mergers gathering speed, the ratio of foreign assets to world GDP soared from record to record. In 2000, the ratio reached an all time high of 92 per cent. The United States, though, was a follower, not a leader in this process. Owners from other countries expanded 28 For a detailed examination of the Middle East and global differential accumulation, see Nitzan and Bichler (1995), Bichler and Nitzan (1996) and Nitzan and Bichler (2002: Ch. 5). 29 During the early 1990s, GDP growth in East Asia averaged 9 per cent, compared with less than 3 per cent in the industrialised countries. During that period, U.S.-based transnational corporations saw their net profit from operations in ‘emerging markets’ rise to 20 per cent of their total net profit, up from 10 per cent in the 1980s (Nitzan 1996). 30 Although government deficits declined to around 1 per cent of world GDP in the late 1990s, down from their all time high of over 5 per cent in the early 1980s, overall government expenditures have continued to rise. By the early 2000s, these expenditures surpassed 17 per cent of world GDP, compared to less than 14 per cent in the 1960s (computed from World Bank data). The privatization of such services – including transportation, water, infrastructure, 50 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? their foreign holdings twice as fast and, as consequence, by the end of the twentieth century the overall share of owners based in the United States dropped by one half, to 25 per cent.31 Table 2 The Globalisation of Ownership Share of Global Gross Foreign Assets* (%) Year Ratio of Global Gross Foreign Assets* to Global GDP (%) U.K. Owners U.S. Owners 1825 56 0 1855 78 0 1870 7 64 0 1900 19 51 2 1914 18 50 6 1930 8 44 36 1945 5 40 43 1960 6 41 51 1980 25 21 28 1985 36 20 29 1990 49 19 21 1995 62 16 22 2000 92 15 25 * Gross foreign asset stocks consist of cash, loans, bonds and equities owned by nonresidents. SOURCE: Obstfeld and Taylor (2004: Table 2.1, pp. 52-3). education and security – typically takes the form of giving/selling them to dominant capital, which contributes to differential accumulation in a manner similar to green-field investment. 31 During the 1990s, capital outflow from developing countries has accellerated dramatically, with massive consequences for the global distribution of ownership. For instance, in South Africa the ratio of total foreign assets to GDP rose more than threefold, from 25 per cent in the early 1990s to over 80 per cen in the early 2000, while in South Korea this ratio increased by more than fourfold, from 10 to 40 per cent. By contrast, in the United States, the ratio merely doubled, from 40 to 80 per cent (based on IMF Balance of Payment Statistics data through WRDS). 51 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? There was also a rapid penetration into the United States itself. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, in 2003, U.S. residents owned $7.9 trillion abroad – but foreigners already owned far more in the United States: $10.5 trillion in total, roughly 20 per cent of all U.S. assets, private and public, real or imaginary. Dependency on foreign earnings has been rising across the board. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S.-based transnational firms presently receive one third of their profit from foreign operations, compared with 5 per cent fifty years ago; a similar dependency on foreign operations is growing in other countries, both developed and developing. Thus, driven by the imperatives of power, differential accumulation via crossborder merger has made global ownership – both of private assets and public debt – a reality, even in the United States. Note our specific emphasis here on global ownership rather than ‘globalization’ more broadly. The latter term has been used to denote a plethora of processes, ranging from culture, through ideology, to religion, politics, trade, production and technology. But under present-day capitalism, these processes are increasingly encompassed by the progressive ‘capitalization’ of social relations on a global scale; that is, by the progressive ‘commodification of power’ into universally vendible units. The globalization of ownership implies both the ‘discounting’ of more and more aspects of social power into asset prices and the increasing ability to buy and sell this commodified power anywhere in the world. Increasingly, the prime purpose of foreign investment is not to expand production, but to control the social process. And with capital flowing in all directions, the main consequence has been to transform dominant capital itself into a progressively global entity. State officials continue to think in aggregate terms, talking in public about the ‘national interest’ and in private about their ‘own’ capitalists. But this ‘nationalist’ emphasis is increasingly out of touch with the changing reality. State policies are ‘discounted’ into asset prices – only that those who accumulate those assets can no longer be easily classified as ‘American,’ ‘European,’ ‘Brazilian,’ or ‘South Korean.’ 8. THE CURRENT CROSSROADS With these considerations in mind, we can now turn to assess the current conjunction of world capitalism. Consider again the breadth phase of the 1980s and 1990s as charted in Figure 8. On the one hand, we saw a global merger mania sustained on the back of neoliberal ideology, deregulation and capital mobility in a ‘global village.’ On the other hand, we observed stagflation taking a free fall, a decline that went well with the neoliberal rhetoric of small government and sound finance. But in 2000 we hit a turning point. Mergers have collapsed, the stock market has melted, and the ‘new economy’ has been exposed as a fraud. Historically, falling 52 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? mergers have triggered rising stagflation, and Figure 8 indeed suggests that in 2002 the long downtrend of stagflation may finally have bottomed out. So far, the shift toward higher stagflation has been hesitant. Twenty years of neoliberalism and free trade have created massive excess capacity, huge competitive pressures coming mainly from East Asia, and a capitalist consensus that preaches ‘disinflation.’ During the 1990s, these developments were warmly welcomed. The policy lingo was anti-inflationary, and ‘neoliberal competition’ helped reduce inflation. But the process has gone way too far. So much so that in 2003 the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, spoke of ‘an unwelcome substantial fall of inflation.’ To our knowledge, that was the first time since the Great Depression that the Fed has made such a declaration. And immediately after Greenspan’s statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow declared the end of a ‘strong dollar’ policy, which amounted to a similar policy loosening from the fiscal side, with tax cuts and rising spending soon to create America’s largest budget deficit ever. This sudden love for inflation is boosted by an old-new fear: deflation. The fear is not unfounded. In 2002, the ratio of total debt to GDP in the United States reached 290 per cent – compared with 165 per cent on the eve of the Great Depression. Under these circumstances, if prices begin falling, firms will be unable to service their debt – and then we face the risk of ‘debt deflation,’ chain bankruptcies and a total meltdown of accumulation; in other words, the ‘China Syndrome’ of capitalism.32 The overall sentiment was summarized in a recent Financial Times article by Bill Dudley of Goldman Sacks and Paul McCulley of Pimco: ‘Greenspan must go for higher inflation,’ they insisted. ‘Inflation is too low, rather than too high,’ and ‘the Fed should welcome a modest rise in inflation.’ (Dudley and McCulley 2003). These considerations point to the emergence of a broad, pro-inflation coalition. The outer perimeter of this coalition is the business sector as a whole that needs inflation in order to avert the prospect of debt deflation. The inner circle of dominant capital wants inflation in order to continue its differential accumulation, now that mergers and acquisitions are in remission. And these forces are supported by central bankers and finance ministers who have been priming the monetary and fiscal pumps, keeping policy on a ‘loose’ footing. Oil prices, Inflation and Profits But wishful thinking and expansionary policies alone are not enough to kick-start inflation, Japan of the 1990s being a case in point. To ignite inflation you need a ‘spark.’ And historically – at least over the past thirty years or so – the spark that ignited inflation has always come from the Middle East, and, specifically, from the price of oil. 32 As the Great Depression unfolded, falling nominal GDP caused the debt-to-GDP ratio to soar to over 270 per cent. A similar decline in nominal GDP today would push the debt-toGDP ratio to over 400 per cent (computations in the paragraph and note are based on data from the Bank Credit Analyst Research Group). 53 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? Figure 9 Inflation and the Price of Oil * $ price of crude oil deflated by the U.S. CPI. SOURCE: International Financial Statistics through Global Insight (series codes: L64@C110 for CPI in the industrialized countries; L76AA&Z@C001 for the price of crude oil; L64@C111 for the U.S. CPI). -5 0 5 10 15 20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Real Price of Oil* (right) CPI in the Industrialized Countries (left) annual % change $2002 / bbl The relationship between oil prices and inflation is illustrated in Figure 9. The thick line in this chart measures the average rate of inflation in the industrialised countries. The thin line shows the ‘real’ price of oil – in other words, the dollar price deflated by the U.S. CPI. And as the figure shows, since the mid 1970s, oil prices have been a clear ‘leading indicator’ for inflation.33 33 Note that we emphasise here oil prices as a ‘leading indicator’ rather than a ‘direct cause’ of inflation. The relationship between oil prices and inflation is only partly anchored in the role of oil as a key production input. (The dollar value of oil produced in 2001 accounted for only 2.1 percent of world GDP, compared to 7.5 percent in 1980 – still a sizable proportion but hardly enough to ‘determine’ overall inflation.) The more important reason for the correlation is that the leading capitalist groups tend to view the price of oil as a ‘barometer’ of future inflation and adjust their overall pricing strategies in line with its fluctuations. 54 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? and each led by a different subset of dominant capital. Figure 12 shows the changing fortunes of two such coalitions, expressed as the per cent share of each group in global net profit. The first group, which we label the ‘Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition,’ comprises the world’s listed armament contractors and oil companies. The second group, the ‘New Economy Alliance,’ is made of listed hardware and software information technology firms that operate mostly in civilian markets. By comparing the progression of the series in Figure 11 and Figure 12, we can make sense of the broad pattern of global differential accumulation, of the changing role of the two coalitions within dominant capital, and of the troubled history of Middle East ‘Energy Conflicts.’ During the ‘depth’ era of the 1970s and early 1980s, global differential accumulation was fuelled by stagflation, driven by conflict and idealized by superpower confrontation. The leading faction within dominant capital was the ‘WeapondollarPetrodollar Coalition,’ whose share of global profits peaked at over 20 per cent (Figure 12). In this context, the oil companies, being politically front and centre, managed to beat the average comfortably, with only occasional setbacks that were quickly ‘corrected’ by Middle East conflicts (Figure 11). During the ‘breadth’ period of the late 1980s and 1990s, merger replaced inflation as the main engine of global differential accumulation, superpower confrontation gave way to a ‘global village’ and war profits made room for peace dividends. The leading faction of the breadth phase was the ‘New Economy Coalition,’ whose hectic mergers and leveraged hype helped send its global profit share to 14 per cent by the end of the period, while that of the Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition sank to an unprecedented low of 3 per cent (Figure 12). Neoliberal rhetoric replaced the welfare-warfare state, conflicts in the Middle East grew fewer and farther between, and the oil companies commonly trailed the average (Figure 11). Events over the past three years suggest that this second period may have come to an end: the long merger boom has collapsed, stagflation has picked up and the global trajectory has shifted from peace dividends back to war profits. Whether these developments represent a mere historical blip or the beginning of a long depth regime, is of course much too early to tell and certainly beyond the scope of this paper. We hope to widen the historical picture in our future work. In the meantime, we restrict ourselves to several ‘positivist’ propositions about what may lie ahead. Looking forward, our framework in this paper suggests three possible paths: (1) differential accumulation through renewed breadth, (2) differential accumulation via depth, or (3) differential decumulation. As these lines are being written (late 2004), there are preliminary signs that merger activity has began to revive after three years of sharp declines. If this revival gains momentum, dominant capital will be all too happy to burry the stagflation hatchet. But the merger upswing could falter (as it did in the 1900s, the 1930s and early 1970s; see Figure 4) – and if it does fade, dominant capital will likely prefer stagflation over differential decumulation. 61 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? The conditions for this latter scenario remain in place. Neoliberal breadth requires relative price stability – but as we have seen, there is now a growing proinflation coalition supported by dominant capital in general and the oil companies in particular, along with accommodative central bankers and finance ministers. For this inflation to take hold oil prices have to go up, and for oil prices to go up there needs to be continued conflict in the Middle East. This conflict, popularly known as the ‘infinite war on terror,’ is detrimental to capital mobility, the lifeline of global breadth. Finally, the ‘war on terror’ justifies rising military spending; soaring military expenditures means the end of fiscal ‘discipline’ and ‘lean’ government; and policy profligacy makes capitalists think of inflation. If unchecked, these processes will undermine the conditions for renewed breadth; and without the prospect of breadth, the road will be clear for global depth, along with stagflation, instability and conflict. New Imperialism or New Capitalism? The capitalism of our times is certainly oppressive and violent – although probably less so than the capitalist imperialism of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, and far less so than the prior, non-capitalist empires of the Orient, Arabia, Europe and the Americas. But oppression and violence alone do not make capitalism imperial, no matter how catchy the term may sound. The hallmarks of the capitalist imperialism of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were pretty specific: x First, unlike prior ‘imperialisms,’ this one was clearly capitalist; it was dominated by capitalist owners and driven by the imperative of capital accumulation. x Second, it was based on a clear statist/geographic distinction between ‘core’ and ‘periphery.’ x Third, it involved territorial conquest in the ‘periphery’ and conflict between the ‘core’ states themselves. x Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, it was fuelled by the systematic export of capital from the ‘core’ to the ‘periphery’ on the one hand, and by the visible ‘plunder’ and apparent ‘exploitation’ of the ‘periphery’ by the ‘core’ on the other. Following Hobson, Luxemburg and Hilferding, the theory of Monopoly Capitalism provided a pretty consistent framework for understanding these features. Later, the process of decolonization gave rise to various theories of dependency. But these features themselves have now changed. Furthermore, some of the key categories with which these features were analyzed have become difficult if not impossible to use. Accumulation today is also capitalistic – but it no longer has the clear hallmarks of imperialism. We can certainly speak of the power of capitalists to control and shape society, perhaps more than ever before. But we can no longer easily root that power in the ‘exploitation’ of workers who are not being paid the ‘full’ value of their labour. Production certainly is an aspect of capitalist power, yet its pseudo-quantities shed 62 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? no light on the accumulation of such power denominated in money terms. We can quantify the architecture of power, but we cannot denominate this architecture in units of ‘abstract labour’ and definitely not in units of ‘surplus value.’ And without abstract labour and surplus value, a whole host of derivative concepts – from ‘exploitation,’ to ‘expanded reproduction,’ to ‘the falling tendency of the rate of profit,’ ‘unequal exchange,’ ‘productive vs. unproductive labour,’ etc. – lose their analytical meaning. The mechanisms of accumulation now go way beyond the so-called ‘process of production.’ They encompass, in theory as well as practice, the entire gamut of power in society. The ‘class struggle’ that once seemed centred on the factory floor, has now spread into every aspect of social existence and inexistence. The underlying goal is to produce not more goods and services, but more predictable social subjects – ones whose ‘preferences’ could be easily moulded and whose ‘actions’ made predictable with a numerical ‘level of confidence.’ Where profits previously seemed to ‘spring’ out of technological advance, they now evidently hinge on the legal protection of technology and other forms of ‘exclusion.’ Capital increasingly looks forward, not backwards. It is financial rather than material. It is counted not in productive machines and structures, but in earning power and risk. Accumulation increasingly operates through merger rather than green-field growth; there is no need to conquer with the military what you could easily buy on credit. Profits often benefit greatly from inflation; where previously capitalists needed to sell more, now they can also charge more. We can clearly identify state organizations; it is far more difficult to separate their logic from that of accumulation. The logos of capital are everywhere – Microsoft, DaimlerCrysler, ExxonMobil – but their owners no longer have a clear ‘nationality.’ When the U.S. government goes to war – as well as levies taxes, pays subsidies, devalue the currency, deregulates its business, changes labour laws, scares its population and what not – its actions are discounted not by ‘American’ capital, but by global dominant capital. Unlike the U.S. military, this dominant capital can, and does, go everywhere. It buys assets in Brazil and Tasmania while selling them, on a moment’s notice, in the United States and China. It is affected by global developments often regardless of its ‘location’ – a rise in oil prices can benefit owners who live in Stockholm, Sao Paulo and London more than those who live in Riyadh, Kuwait or New York. Using transfer prices and tax havens, dominant capital can change its profit without moving at all. The ‘United States’ may be strong or weak, but it is not a capitalist empire. The capitalists who happen to live there are decreasingly ‘American’ in terms of what they own, and many of those who own ‘American’ assets live elsewhere. The ‘United States’ has no savings to export; it desperately needs those of others. U.S.- based capitalists do not unleash their government against other core countries, and 63 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? when the U.S. does go to war – in Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan or Iraq – the purpose is neither conquest, nor the ‘exploitation’ of the conquered. It is not that capitalism has simply grown more ‘complicated.’ It has become different. The capitalist nomos has changed. It is time to change our theories. 64 NITZAN AND BICHLER: New Imperialism or New Capitalism? REFERENCES NOTE: most of the publications of Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan are available from The Bichler & Nitzan Archives at http://www.bnarchives.net Anonymous. 1968. [1986]. Paris: May 1968. Originally published by Solidarity. 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